 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday the 1st of July and the beginning of the third quarter of 2014. As you can see we're back in more normal surroundings this week, no one horsing around in the background, so no multiple takes. So what are we going to talk about this week? Well we've got an awful lot on the calendar, we've got a rather shorter week than normal, not us here in the UK but obviously the US has the 4th of July Independence Day holiday which essentially means that the data that's due out on Friday is now going to be released on Thursday and that's going to make Thursday an extremely volatile day indeed. So before I say anything further, non-farm payrolls webinar this week is 1.15 to 1.45 on Thursday, not Friday, Thursday and it also happens to coincide with Mr Draghi's July press conference so it should be extremely interesting. So by all means sign up along here, tune in and listen to me try and make sense of what Mr Draghi says on the one hand and what the non-farm payrolls numbers are telling me on the other. Okay so at the weekend we had the central bankers, central bank the BIS basically warn of the disconnect between underlying economic data and the fact that global markets i.e. the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ are at multiple or multiple year or all-time highs. Now the DAX does seem to be giving some indications that it's starting to roll over and I think that is a concern going forward and I think it's certainly down to the fact that this week's ECB meeting is unlikely to unveil any new measures in addition to the ones that were unveiled in June. Mr Draghi will be left pretty much left to his own devices with respect to trying to talk down the euro because as respect to whatever he's got left in his toolkit I think the cupboard is starting to look increasingly bare unless he goes all in with full-scale QE and I still don't think that's likely this side of 2015. So in that context we are going to look at euro-dollar, going to have a look at also euro-stirling, going to have a look at the pound against the dollar because we've seen a significant breakout there and also look at a very interesting pattern on sterling Swiss. Let's make a start with the pound against the dollar chart. Now regular viewers will know that I've been watching this chart for quite some time pretty much the last three or four weeks. We've now closed above that 170 level and the likelihood is that we could well see further gains. Now I would only revise that view if we drop below 169.10 but at the moment the the momentum does appear to be behind the long sterling trade. Now there is interim resistance around about 171.80 but overall the larger target remains at 173.50 and you can see that on the chart in front of you. It's the 50% retracement from the entire down move from the highs that we saw in 2007 around about the 211 level to the lows that we saw at the height of the crisis around about 135. So really worth keeping an eye on that particular chart it's certainly there's certainly an expectation amongst market participants that the next move in interest rates is likely to be from the Bank of England and not the Federal Reserve. However that could well change with this week's economic data certainly when in the context of perceptions about when the Fed is scheduled to next raise interest rates. On that stronger sterling theme we've also got a Euro sterling chart as we can see from this daily chart we're in a clearly defined downtrend here. We've got interim resistance at 80.35 which is last week's highs. We've got good support at 79.60 if we're to break below that support then once again the potential is for further losses down towards 79 initially and then 78.50 but keep an eye on those double lows around about the 79.60 area. Continuing the sterling theme I actually thought this interesting chart on sterling Swiss might be worth a look because we've got a nice uptrend line in place and that's the lower line on this four-hour chart and that line actually comes in from the March lows. Now we are trending lower on the short-term basis on a four-hour chart but as long as we stay above that one that horizontal line around about 151.30 then prospects for further gains remain fairly high and certainly that level also coincides with the trend line support from the March lows. So there's a clearly defined trend in place there and it's certainly worth keeping an eye on going forward. So let's move on to the Euro dollar and despite Mr. Draghi's best efforts Euro dollar is the currency that just won't go down. We're now back above the 200-day moving average. We're also back above that lower resistance line which should now act as support for potentially a further move higher towards 137.80. Now Mr. Draghi may well try and talk the Euro lower over the course of the next few days but unless he backs those words up with significant action then I think all that's likely to happen is we will probably get another dip. There's solid support at 135. The likelihood is we could well see further gains here as well. Well that's it for this week ladies and gentlemen. Once again thanks very much for listening. This is Michael Houston talking to you from CNC market and don't forget non-farm payrolls is on Thursday not on Friday.