 Hey traders, this is Tosh I go by T Bradley 90 in the my investing club chat a general reminder for those who do not know MIC is having a one-year anniversary event where bow is going to be trading live in front of our members It's coming up August 17th mark your calendars as an added benefit for our members The event is 100% and exclusively free for annual and lifetime members While lifetime on top of that get extra coaching before the event and guaranteed front-row seating While most charged for these events We show our support by making it again free for annual and lifetime members if you are interested in signing up for this event DM T Bradley 90 in MIC slack chat and or email myself at Tosh at my invest in club calm Now we have a very special video for you guys this week as Austin who goes by a loa trader one of our head Moderators in chat returns for his episode 10 of his weekly Thursday at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time webinar and this week He's going to talk about analyzing your trades and Austin's favorite setup And while today is just a preview of the full-length video if you want to watch the full-length or any of our exclusive content Then become an MIC member All right, so what we're gonna talk about today We're gonna go over the key traders and let me tell you I am scraping the barrel this week For for good trades or even good trades that I didn't take to talk about it's just been that slow This is kind of what I've been talking about week after week after week when I say what's to fear? What's to fear? What's to fear the July earning season about the slowest time? I think of the year like an argument can be made like Sometimes August is really slow, too But I think this is the worst time of the year for the small-cap plan July earning season It's just it's like it's in summer and it's earning season. It's the pinnacle of slowness. So That's what time I think we're in now. So I think good news. I think we're only You know, it only gets better from here. So we're gonna be going over the market sentiment Couple of trader topics that I get the most frequently asked questions of the week Yeah, good time to take a vacation. I think a lot of people do and that's why a lot of the Putty's kind of not there that dies off really really early We're gonna go over my favorite strategy my favorite setup later on and then we'll open the board Q&A so um Yeah, so I did not I had a nice trade on Netflix earlier early in the week It was a it was a really kind of like one of if I had to label the most classic setup I have in the large cap world. It's probably this one. It's a relative weakness short and so Right around here the spy was kind of being pretty strong and Netflix wasn't really holding it So like we got this nice tank out of the open while this while the spy was holding pretty strong So that immediately tells me that next week and this is coming off the context of this situation It's Netflix is coming off like huge earnings Beat down on their stock, right like it gap down huge what well under support And so I'm looking to kind of continue to fade a little bit thinking that everybody is under water Everybody there's a lot of people that need to sell that there's basically gonna be too much over Over-arguing demand pressure or sorry selling pressure And then so the next day, you know We we held pretty good up here, and I was kind of surprised that we did hold very good up here. So The next day I was thinking that we should have a bounce like this is so faded off that maybe like with that strong close Maybe there's more demand for the stock than than I had originally realized because I expected a breakdown and didn't get it. So I'm like, you know, maybe I can get this for a bounce, right? And so I try to bounce them given the good hold yesterday my target for this trade I've just checking to make sure I have a recording. Sorry. My target for this trade was that Was like 15 to 18 dollars Trying to get, you know above the kind of the open price for the open price of yesterday That's kind of where my idea was of the trade And you know, I quickly stopped out at green to red green to red is a really really really powerful indicator, right? It's kind of the it's the basis of the first red day short and it's also and it's probably I think next to support resistance It's you know, it's it's probably and VWAP like it's probably just the next most used indicator I think probably maybe moving average is beat it, but it's pretty up there, right? It's a very important It's a very important indicator and it's very powerful and I don't ever fight it right if something goes red It's really like I'm being stubborn if I'm holding a stock long through a red or if I'm holding a short as it rips Green right. I'm being very stubborn about holding that short or holding this long. So like most of the time I will always be Mixing my trade at a red to green or green to red cross and reassessing it later Like I would have re-bought right I would have re-bought of this reclaimed 311, but it never did next trade I think then the next day like I tried to short snap as it went up and but you know I got a little bit. It's really funny as it popped up to 1650. I think I posted in chat like an idiot I said early shorts getting killed on snap and thus then I decided to become one of them early shorts It's time-stamped. I actually said that It's a it's a it's in the large gap option room. You can you can look at it and then I go and just go and short it So my idea for this for this trade on the front side was whenever you're shorting a front side You should always have an estimation of what your range is going to be right because you never want to go in blind Right, you need to have resistance levels. You're playing off of but I like to have resistance level I'm playing off of but I also like to You know guess what range is going to be relevant. What what range is the stock going to test? And so I picked 1650 to 17 and I got blown out of the water So I was wrong on my range estimation Right, the good good thing is is that my rule is that I never let myself go more than half-sized Well, you know before the trade starts to work So if I'm on the front side or if I'm on the anticipation part of a trade I both consider those front side right the anticipation part of a trade and some trades for the front side of a parabolic Both of these situations my favorite rule like is Never go half-sized before you're full and it saves me every single time Anyway, and so I traded Netflix again today Trading Netflix again today, and so I took this trade because it goes into kind of what I wanted to talk about Today in the webinar. So Like I was really keen like oh, maybe I'm gonna be able to show that like I did an example today, right? Like so I was kind of super keen for it Which is why I was I kind of allowed myself to get a little anticipation trade on it but anyway, so I Think about Netflix it had a huge bounce all the way back from 306 right and we're up to 320 This is the big bounce it got up near the top of the range from where the Word initially gap down from a few days ago, so I'm like this is kind of a large extended move I'm kind of hoping to get like a break that a breakdown back down to the like a 320 level You know back down to the 320 Or three like 1918 level thinking that we maybe fade off at the end of the day out. There's such a big run for two days and I kind of like I start in here and like and I knew like right as this happened I had a bad feeling that this was gonna trap But I still put a little bit of an ad on this because it was a little minor breakdown of 33 2350 But what I was saving my bullets for was this big low, right? This was the big low this 323 was the level of the afternoon that I knew I was willing to hammer because I thought it would look So good if I was able to I was able to show this in the webinar today So I'm like I'm more disappointed it didn't happen Then I didn't even make money off it because it would have looked and been perfectly timed amazing this but You know like then I gave it I gave it one last short. You're right near my wrist My wrist is 324 50 like I'm not you know the prior high I gave it one last chance to reject and you know when it's holding 324 I just I get out as a markets in it So I went over a little bit of this kind of right before the webinar, but The market has been such crap lately, right? Like the only things that's really been like up is like snap beyond a net, right? like in like these are like on my list of Like active market participants like the only green ones are coming from large caps like all the all the small caps are just kind of dying No volume nothing right like DMP. I totally faded MTP totally faded e-dap totally faded CHMA totally faded like The only ones that have been kind of working or a CHN are Ekr and they're not necessarily the most active they're kind of like just slowly chugging up here So I'm getting excited for these two in particular next week a CHN and our ekr OBLM to I'm watching OBLM because it's a recent reverse foot and I always have hope for those right? It's very fast that if they like to run after they reverse foot So that's gonna be on my watch this every single day this Thursday this weekend next week But yeah, just everything in small cat land is just kind of in depth right and it's funny last week We're kind of entering into the tanker's market is I remember I had My my ex on the tanker's market and here I think we're kind of into the dead market All right, so yeah, so like last week we were right here going into the tankers market here I think we're going right here into the dead market So it seems to be in this summer like so I noticed it in Like the busier times of the of the year like the by now ask questions later market tends to last like Weeks like a couple of weeks. There's good action, right? There's two three week period of good action right and and then there's like a two to three period We're like shorts are totally in control and then there's like a couple weeks where it's dead, right here It's like every single week. It's like we're just moving right It's just like there's a there's a quick little flurry then everything tanks and then there's nothing like every week It's like we're entering a new one So I think maybe the cycle gets smaller in the summer, but like in the busier times It takes a longer to go full cycle. So there are two different ways to analyze your trades and I want to go over both of them obviously So the first one is the obvious one and this is the one everyone kind of does the first one is how solid was your idea? You know, what was your thesis? How good was the thesis? Were you right? Were you wrong? Why were you right? Why were you wrong? Did the trade suck? You know, wasn't the best trade ever, you know, like You know, like what were you know, what did you did you did you buy dries at a hundred or you know what I mean? Or you know, did you shorten it or did you short snap at $5, right? Like How solid was your idea? So the question that you need to kind of ask yourself and review when you're going over your trades And I would do this I would honestly kind of you can do this at the end of every day I prefer to do it at the end of the week because then like you can look at multiple trades at once and see if there's a beam or a Pattern to your your your ideas So I think the best time to do this is at the end of the week instead of the end of the day But you know, whatever, you know to each of them, right? So this is the strategy. I kind of want to go over The overextended trend break and it is my absolute favorite setup in the world Like if I only and I and I went a little bit over I went over this a little bit in the webinar But it is my absolute favorite setup To date and it's a short setup It's it's it's a bread and butter account building setup and it used to happen all the all the time like all the time I remember the trade that really turned me on to this and like it was a long time ago I think it was HTTM or something like it really kind of turned my trading around when I just Stimplified this pattern. I think I was in 2016 or something but Anyway, so an overextended trend break is is when a stock a small cap runner normally Can be a large cap runner, but the small cap runners the bread and butter one for me It's when a stock is just running and running and running and it's had multiple like holes and a lot of short tracks and it keeps squeezing and it's just overextended and It's stock is very messy, right? But if if you just zoom out like literally just pick a five-minute chart or like a 15-minute chart or a 10-minute chart or something zoom out a little bit and and draw a major Major major major Highs and lows and it's just trend one-on-one. You're basically like an uptrend is defined by a higher lows And a downtrend is defined by lower highs, right? So ideally an up like for me this this could be just my opinion But I think it works the best is a higher low Is still intact as long as it's making higher lows or equal or higher lows? Even if it's not necessarily making higher highs the trend is Technically still intact as long as it hasn't made a lower low yet. Now, obviously it's ideal If it's making you know Higher high higher low higher high higher low and the and the reverse to the short as long as it's making lower highs You know like, you know, it cannot be making necessarily lower lows, but the lower highs are what's important on the short But for me like this is kind of the second half of it but the lower highs on a on an uptrend is The the indicator that the lower low is coming next and the lower high to the lower low is the trend one-on-one of a trend break Right, and whenever we find these these super active Runners, right? We find these super active runners The first like we don't we assume that small caps don't trend but they totally do trend They're just messy right be aware the trend is messy But but we get so zoomed in we get so focused like our P&Ls can be red or something We're focused on our P&L We're not we're zoomed into the stock and we're not paying attention that the stock is actually just making the simple patterns that we've learned when we were beginners, but I think When traders realize this like when I realize this like That the simple patterns work, but you need experienced eyes to see the simple patterns Like that's when things kind of just turn around that was a euphoric moment when I'm like What's my favorite large cap setup first red day? Just because it's like the most comfortable I think first red day and relative weakness relative weakness shorts and first and first red day shorts like when I look back at all of my Large cap trades the one that like I'm most green on all the time is the relative weakness short. Oh Yeah, you asked me this before. Sorry. I'm gonna get to that Austin wouldn't the Netflix trade a little bit like trying to bite the trend at 322 30 Trade a little bit like trying to bite the trend 322 point 30 was previous state sport level never broke under and never broke authority at three, right? Right, exactly. It hadn't broken yet. So I was I was definitely anticipating this trade a little bit, right and I Was definitely anticipating the trade a little bit and that's why I didn't really like Like but what my thesis for the trade was that it was starting to look like it was going to Kind of pull right so we were having this nice this trend up here, but then like this was the first lower high This is the first lower high and then a little bit of a low You know kind of a lower low right here equal low or three tests It showed weakness to me So I was like right up right after this first lower high was when I started to think that we might be getting into Some bearish territory here and this is where I felt like it was like the moment of truth, right? This is like a break of 323 and that's it so 323 definitely confirmed the thesis. That's right But um this this lower high is what kicked it off for me like why didn't this why didn't this keep breaking higher? Right. So like middle of the day lower high Maybe we start to taper off and I can I still like I would have liked to have seen it under 323 I think you know, this might not have happened No, I know I have none Just me that's why I'm I'm just I don't have friends during the week. I only have friends on the weekend Um, bro, how do you deal with slow months weeks aside from vacation like it sucks? Honestly, like I mean I take more naps like I take more naps like this Like this is the first like a couple Sundays ago. What's the first Sunday? I ever ever ever like Just stayed up, right? So like I do take a little bit more time off. I take a little bit more naps I don't stay for the middle of the day right like After I've after I've been doing calls and stuff with an M. I see I just mean I have a kitty But yeah, like I just take time off. I don't try to overstay I try to nail and bail more in the mornings, right? I don't have a lot of super patience with a lot of my trades That's kind of how I deal with it. It sucks What is the topic of your presentation on next month's billies? crap, I need to have a presentation I Don't know. I don't know. I wasn't I wasn't told I need to have one, but like, you know, do one I don't know honestly what I would what I would pick Kind of home without a vacation week, I don't know I need one Do you typically so I don't know it's the answer sorry Do you typically base your relative weakness for a thought? Yeah It's it's it's normally just the spy like Like every now and then like I will look at like a competitor, right? Like I'll look at like If it's super relevant that are like Delta or American Airlines or something then I'll look at that But like I mean, I maybe make two trades like that a year So It's mostly the spy, but you know, I could definitely justify using a What's what's the finance report a calm? Calm, how do you identify death line? So I Identify the death line as the last major support the last major support so it's my opinion that large cap stocks don't typically have depth lines because The idea of a death line is that the stock dead after and large caps don't really die Small caps die and then like a new one pops out a new flower pops up the next day, right? So Now a death line can happen on a large cap if there's a catalyst driving a large a big large cap move But then there's like a technical death line where maybe the catalyst runs it runs its course and stock goes back Like an overblown catalyst and the stock goes back to where it was trading before the catalyst Even if it's a large cap and I think kind of like a similar death line strat if you can be applied to large caps Well, I think most of the time it's small caps and it's the last major support the one where Any reasonable longs? That's their last chance of the stock holding. I do have a kitty Slow months watch training videos green time with charts track trades track trades You want to start pretty yeah, or even like trade them 10 chairs like you know what I mean like practice, right? I think 10 chair trades are better than than paper trades. Just you're actually in it even you know Like you're not going to lose any money, but like you're actually in it and you feel something Right, it's just practice Does your phone will intensify after missing a trade and how do you prove it? Yeah, it does absolutely you deal with it You just you just you just you just ask yourself What you're going to ask yourself if that trade doesn't end perfectly, right? if you chase a stock up and it doesn't just keep going up and you end up selling like as you bought the top and you sell like Because you can't handle being down this much when it pulls back and you end up selling the bottom of the low and then it And then you eventually goes up higher, but you couldn't hold the risk you ask yourself. How bad am I going to feel? That's how you curb it, right? You just you you try to predict how ugly you're going to feel if the trade happens That's how I curve it like up, you know, I just like how like am I get like would I Would you be proud to show off this trade if it doesn't work? Would you take this trade again? That's how you do it. You anticipate your analysis of the trade and be like if this doesn't work Like I want it to and I end up stopping out am I going to be able to say will I take this trade again? Hey traders, this is Tosh I go by T Bradley 90 in the my investing club chat Just wanted to reach out and say if you have any questions about M. I see joining M. I see maybe you're a member already You have three ways to contact myself personally and through M. I see you can hit our social media You can hit me through pms in chat or you can contact us through my email at Tosh at my investing club calm That's TOS H at my investing club calm I will get back to you in a timely manner and I'm saying this because I'm here to help and I don't want anybody to be Afraid to reach out and ask any question that they have. We are here for you guys. All right. See you guys