 Let's get over to our man, Mr. Tim Ord, as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour and as you go to the front page of TFNN, folks, we got a special treat for you. Our man, Mr. Tim Ord, is going to be doing two webinars for us. We've got two webinar series that's coming up. You're going to see this right at the front page of TFNN. The first webinar is going to be coming up on June 8th and what that is going to be on is the broad market, the S&P. The second one is going to be on June 15th and that's going to be on the gold market. Our man, Mr. Tim Ord, of course, has been in this market for 50 years. Bottom line knows the market upside down and the first webinar, folks, is going to be a two-hour webinar, folks. It's going to be an hour and a half of teaching and a half hour of questions on each one of them. The first webinar on the S&P is going to be talking about his sentiment indicators, the most important elements that he looks at for bottoms. The divergences that he looks at all together and putting that all together. The second one is going to be on the gold market and that's going to be about ratio studies, cycle analysis, advanced decline, volume indicators that you know he does a lot of ratios out here. You know, looking at the extremes, putting that all together. Now, the way this works, folks, is that you can go to both of these webinars for $495. You can go to each one of them for $295 a piece. You can check it out right in the front page of TFNN under Featured Content. Tim Ord, what's going on? Well, everything's good on this end, so just dive right into it if you don't mind. Absolutely. I got your charts right in front of me here. I'll sign with the first chart. Yeah, the first chart. This is actually kind of an educational thing. This chart is the NYSE Summation Index. Yes. And it goes back to 2000. I can't get my glasses on here. It goes back to 2007. What I want to point out, there was a big decline going into 2008 low. My point is, for a bullish market, you really have to have a blowout to the downside. Yes. You get a lot of extremes. I guess the weak hand's out pretty much getting anybody out of the market. Then it bottoms. And that happens when the Summation Index, this is kind of a... There's McCall and Oskler, then there's a Summation... McCall and the Summation Index. And the Summation Index is... I don't want to get into the real big details. But, yeah, when the Summation Index is below minus 700, which I marked there with blue lines on the chart all the way up to the current time frame... Yes. Then when it gets above plus 1,000... So Haskell, to have a selling climax in the Summation Index, Haskell blows 700. Then you write after that, within a month or so, you have to have a sign of strength. And that's when a reading is above plus 1,000. And that confirms a bottom in the market. While I want to point out in this client of 2007 going in 2008 bottom, he had a lot of readings below minus 700 there. And I outlined that in pink. Why that market did not make a bottom? Because it never made a bottom until the Summation went back above plus 1,000. So even though he had selling climaxes, they just kept selling climax. That's awesome to know. Never reverse until finally in late 2008, you got a massive selling climax way below minus 700. Then finally it got above plus 1,000. And that's when the bottom happened. And that's my point for the whole thing. You have to have a selling climax and you have to have a sign of strength. And this is the stuff that he'll be teaching folks, which is so cool. Yeah, that's so cool, Tim. Wow, okay. Yeah. So my point is getting back to the current market, which we did have a selling climax right down the date, but we did have a selling climax way below minus 700. And earlier this year, we did have a buying climax of plus 1,000. Okay. So what I'm saying here, this is not going to be like 2008 decline because we went to a selling climax to a sign of strength. So that's confirmed to bear a bull market. Nice. We're in a bull market now because of that reason. Okay. So if the market never got to plus 1,000, then this market going sideways could be the halfway point that it moved down. Instead, this whole thing is a basing period. Yes. So that's my point on that. And you know, Tim, these are the things that, you know, it's so cool that you've been doing this so long and you really get to understand these because it seems to me, you know, we all have, I mean, I do, you know, the Wyckoff price and volume, which I love. You know what I mean? I know you do that too. But it's these things here that I think that people don't have, don't do, you know what I'm saying? That are so valuable to people, you know? Yeah. Right. And that's the reason why, you know, at the bottom, well, maybe, you know, yeah, you know, where's the sign of strength at? And actually, I flipped to church number three real quick. Okay. I'm going to excuse this. Okay. I had a chat right now. Yeah. All right. I think we talked about this last time. And maybe not, but I did a Fibonacci relationship from the March, 2020 low, you know, that was a COVID low, I guess you might call it. And the market, you know, rocked back up into January, 2020 high. I did a relationship or I did a Fibonacci retracement level. If you notice, we retraced down to the October of last year. And we didn't quite touch the 50% retracement level. We almost did. And so this market, you know, from the high of 2022 is only retraced 50%. It didn't go down to like 61.8% retracement, only traced 5%. So from the Fibonacci stage, I guess you might say, either this is a halfway point of the move up, which would give a target around 610, or you at least go back and test the previous high. Right. Fibonacci wise. Well, you take this another step further. I have a, what I think is a head and shoulders bottom. And the reason why I'm calling the head and shoulders bottom, if you look on the volume chart of March, we had a sign of strength through that neckline. I did close of the neckline, drew a line across there. I see that. And we, yeah. And we closed above that neckline, which is around a little bit above four, around four or five. And so I draw a trend lines. And so what's important, you have to hold above that line for the market to continue higher. And we did in April and now we're in May and May, if you do the volume stage, this month was just not even over yet. It's already higher than the month of April. So you're making kind of higher highs. We did touch a higher high above the previous high and higher volume. So there's quite a bit of evidence, even though we haven't gotten anywhere since basically last May. It's, we did have a sign of strength through a head and shoulders neckline. And we did close the blow above it. And if you do the calculations of that head and shoulders bottom, take the bottom of the head up to the neckline, you add it on, come up around 460. Well, 470 is a high of the previous high. So I'm thinking that at a minimum we go there. Nice. Tim, just stay there for a second. We got a quick break and we'll come up right back. And what's so cool with Tim's talking about here, folks, so picture, when you do a 50% retracement that he's talking about from the highs to the lows, that's a normal retracement, you know, in a market that can go up, folks. That's the bottom line. And then he matches it with this head and shoulders bottom that he's looking at. Stay right there. Tim and I are coming right back. Welcome back, folks, to Dow. Dow's down 12. Nasdaq's up 235. S&Ps are up 39. We'll talk with our man, Mr. Tim Ord. And don't forget, folks, if you come over to our website, the front page of TFN, Tim's going to be doing two workshops for us. One on the S&P and the second one on gold. And all the details are right on the front page of TFN. The workshops themselves, $295 a piece for one, a $495 for two. Okay, Tim, so I have the third shot up right now. Where do you want me to go? Let's go to chart two. Okay. Because chart one and three kind of had, you know, that was a bigger picture. Now we're going to chart two. Sure. And I do, I do, actually, in a nutshell, I don't, charts kind of messy. The only reason why, because I do a lot of stuff with the ticks and trend. And anyhow, the closing kick and the closing trend, we'll put it this way, a trend close at 1.2 or higher and a tick close below minus 200 is a form that shows panic in the market. Okay. And now I'll extreme that and explain that in my webinar. If you do what the trend is, I forgot, is up-volume or is advancing issues divided by declining issues divided by advancing volume divided by declining volume. Right. And if you do all that stuff, you get anything over, you know, one is lean spare issue because under one lean is kind of bullish. Well, over the years, I figured out anything below 1.2, you're starting to see panic in the market. And that's when bottoms form. Bombs only form on panic. If you go down and there's no panic and everybody's saying, oh, yeah, this is a cheap buy. You're going to go a lot lower. Right. People start saying, I'm taking, get me out of the market is when a low starts to form. Yes. And that's when the trend starts going way above one. So, anyhow, the reason why I put all those blue numbers there are when the trend or the tick should panic levels. And usually when the market panics at a certain level, it'll continue to panic in that level. And probably maybe the next week or so we'll show that a look on the bigger timeframes. I had a lot of panic around the 360 to the 390 area on the trend and ticks on the SPY in that range. I see. Okay. There's panic in that area. You're hitting support. So, you know, getting off subject. But anyhow, this is the SPY is going back first part of April. And what I'm thinking here is forming is three drives to a top pattern. You had a top in mid-April. Another one late April 1st of May. And we just had one here last week. If you notice we did break above the previous highs, actually on the sign of strength, didn't hold. But if you can't hold the previous high, then what you're going to do is go down to the previous flow. Well, three drives to the top pattern has a downside target to where the pattern began. Well, the pattern began at the previous flows, which is that shaded pink area in there. So, I'm thinking we're going to go there. We have a lot of panic in that region between four, five, four, ten. So, I'm thinking that's where we're going to go. And I've got a gap there's circled. And we have a gap. Yes. I think it was May 6th. We left an open gap there. I thought we'd fill it a lot sooner. So, Tim, are you saying there's going to be one more panic here? Is that how that's set up? Yeah, I'm thinking that. I see. Now, I see. This is cool, man. Folks, this is the stuff no one has. Trust me on this, man. Because Tim, you know, we go back to the 90s. He taught me so much about the market. It's insane. This is the stuff that no one has, man. I get it. Go ahead. I'm sorry, man. This is so cool. Yeah. So, anyhow, yesterday, I got a note there. It says 382 down tick rings. Again, minus anything below 200s. Panic. The more down tick rings you got, the more actually bullish it becomes. But the trend only closed 1.09, near bullish, but not quite. And I bet either today or tomorrow, we're going to hit 1.2 or higher on the trend. Okay. As we're talking right now, we're at 1.11. So, and ideally, you know, when you go to a holiday, a lot of times volume drops out. Yes. So ideally, when you want to go into a holiday, you like to actually market going down because volume is going to drop out. Right. So, if you test a previous low or test a gap, and if you test a previous low on ladder volume, preferably 10% ladder volume implies support. If you test a gap on ladder volume, at least 10% attests support. So, I don't have a crystal ball, but my bet would be test a gap tomorrow. Yeah. On ladder volume, and the trend is going to close today or tomorrow around 1.2, suggesting that gap is going to find support probably most likely on ladder volume or going into three-day weekend. And that's when really the rally starts probably, you know, you know, not Friday. Friday probably be it. Yeah, next week. You know what's so cool to him, right? Is that like, I know, you know, you taught me the trend of the tick in the 90s, right? And it's so cool that how you've just put together, you know, the tree drives, whether they're the top or the bottom, with it, with the context of, okay, yeah, we're going to compare it. And again, we know the market's always about strength and weakness, folks, okay? And so this is so cool because, you know, we know within, like, when you were saying that one of those charts was like sloppy, but it's been a sloppy market, do you know what I'm saying? It's like back and forth, back and forth, right? Yeah, pretty cool, man. Like, also, I do, you know, stuff with Fibonacci like you do, and if you do the Fibonacci retracement, that 405 area, which is that pink area again, is a 38.2% retracement. So you can do the numbers on that. So it's not over to sideways movement that's going on since the beginning of April. It's probably the halfway point of the move up. And if you do that, if it comes around 445. So I think we hit 405 again, then probably rally because of the Fibonacci relationship, just going sideways here for, you know, almost, well, two months, all of April, all of May, then we rally up, you know, probably July or August. Sure. That Fibonacci relationship. And that's saying that it wouldn't break the low of that consolidation also that we've been in, which is pretty cool. Right, I get it. Right, okay. Yeah, so there's a lot of different stuff going on in there, but that's how I'm looking to market. And if you look at the monthly chart, you know, there's nothing various about it. So, you know, we just got no easier. You got to, you know, you got to, I guess, pay attention that I've been long actually for a while now and I have no reason at the moment, at least on the S&P's to think about selling this stuff. Right. So 405, you know, I'll probably add something on the options. I don't know why I'll do many commodities, but I'll have to wait and see what it looks like. Right. I'm thinking, an idea, I hope it goes down, you know, tomorrow, that'd be work out really good if it does. And a lot of times going on these holidays, you know, there's, if you have fear going in, you know, where you can't sleep over the weekend because you're in a long position, this is a type of market to give, you know, a lot of people fear. So. Yes. Throwing out. And when Tim says that he'd like to see it go down again folks, what happens is this, is that when you get the third test also, which is pretty cool, right, that you get so much more information, it's amazing, right? I mean, that's how it works. So it's pretty wild. Yeah, no doubt. Yeah. So we got one more chart. Okay. We've got time to cover it. Yeah. Well, you just stay there. We'll take a quick break. We're going to come back with the next shot. All right. Cool. Stay right there. Stay right there. This is Tim or Tom O'Brien. Tim's going to be doing a couple of workshops for us. Check it out in the front page of TFNN folks. We have the Dow Industries right now trading up nine. NASDAQ's up 243. S&P's up 41. Tim and I are going to be coming right back folks. Welcome back folks at Dow. The discussion is up two NASDAQs except 241. S&P's are up 41. We're talking about, man, Mr. Tim Ord. And I have the, yeah, I have the fifth chart up here, Tim. All right. Actually, this is off subject a little bit. You remember how we met? At all? I believe I... I told you. You probably don't remember the circumstances. But you remember Chris Cadbury? Yes. Yeah. I think he wrote something in Stocks Commise Magazine. So you called him up and you were doing your radio station. And I forgot how Chris and I became friends. I think I wrote something for Commise Magazine way back when he called me about some stuff. And anyhow, you called him and offered him an interview or something on your radio show. Yeah. And you know, Chris calls me and saying, I don't want to go on the radio. I love it. And this is why I would. So he gave me your number. So I called you up. I love it. And that's how we began our relationship. And Cadbury was awesome too, man. Yeah. Yeah. Chris Cadbury, you know, he was always in the top 10 of Timer's Digest. Yes. Years and years and... I do remember that now, Tim. I do, man. That's right. Because, yeah, wow, that's amazing. Yeah. And yeah, so I called you up. And I think one of our first conversations was... I think the market was crashing in like 1998, like October or something. And I remember I was trading quite a bit of offices back then. I said, I got to get off the radio because I could buy some calls. Yeah, but it was way before that. Because we had already done workshops by then. We met like 96 or something. Was it 96? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I know. But that happened when Greenspan was on. It was Greenspan and Ruben that was on. It was live. He said, I got to get off this air. I remember that. Because what happens, folks, we used to do this program live, trading live simultaneously three to four in the afternoon. Yeah, I remember that so well, man. Because, yeah, you got to love it, man. Yeah. Yeah, that's how I met you. You called Chris Cadbury for an interview. I love it. And he didn't want to go on the radio. And he called me and said, yeah, I'll go on it. How cool is that? Yeah. How cool is that? So it's a small world. It is. It is. So, but honey, what chart you got up? What chart are we on? I have the fifth chart up. All right, fifth chart. Okay. This is kind of important here. We showed this chart last time. I mean, how the bottom window is the 18-day average of the up-down volume, advanced decline percent. And next window up is the 18-day average of GDX. The bottom window, excuse me, is the advanced decline percent. And the next window up is the 18-day average up-down volume percent. Previously, when both those indicators got above 40, normally a surge pattern happened. And I went back in time and showed those examples. And we had one on April 4th, 2023, about a little over a month ago, a month and a half ago. Okay. And both of them got way over 40, which predicted market in general should rally four to five months from that spot. And so market did rally for a little bit, but it has since backed off. Now flip to chart four. Okay. Now, so this chart is the weekly GDX, this top window. The next window down is the cumulative GDX advanced decline percent. And the bottom window is the GDX up-down volume cumulative on a weekly time frame. And the blue line show the buy signals. In other words, when the buy signal happens when the both indicators close above is mid-bowl in Japan and the sell signal, which is a red line closed below the mid-bowl in Japan. Okay. And mark those on the chart. And we got a buy signal back in March of this year for that method on the weekly time frame. The only thing I wanted to point out, the bottom window kind of just barely closed above it. And over the last couple of weeks, actually turned back down again. And the next window up, these are on the weekly time frame. So they're bigger time frames and also closed back below mid-bowl in Japan. So anyhow, which indicator is correct? And that's what I don't know. So, you know, I guess the bigger time frames rule the smaller time frames. Yes. Right now, this thing with neutral, in my opinion, is not a sell signal. Okay. It's not a buy signal right now either. So I'm determined how I'm looking at the market right now. I think GDX is just oversold and it is due for a bounce. How that next bounce performs will determine what I do next. Okay, cool. That's how I'm figuring this out. And folks, you know, you can see, you know, this has been a great tutorial, you know, coming up for the webinars that Tim's going to do. And you can see this is stuff that, you know, no one's ever seen. I mean, that's the reality. Yeah, you're right. I tried using all this other stuff on GDX. Yes. And it's a hit and miss. And I'm thinking, you know, screw that. So I kind of started digging into other stuff and started narrowing it down. And this is what I came up with. And that's how you've always been, though, man. I mean, that's just so cool, Tim. You know what I'm saying? I mean, you know, and your tick and trend has got a lot more sophisticated what I think is so cool also, you know? Yeah. You know, a lot of people, you know, when they panic, I'm thinking, if you're panicking, you're, you know, that's a good sign. Yes. You know, and I started it, you know, people, you know, my clients in the old days just call me up and bitch about, you know, if Mark is panicking, we gotta get out. You know, or whatever, or call me names or something. You know, we're walking away from a hell of an opportunity area. Exactly. Exactly. And I started to figure it out and I go back and look and think, that's perfect bottom. So that's what kind of switched everything. I tried to find indicators that, you know, represent panic and VIX is a good one. Probably our next show will show some stuff on the VIX. Right. Which is pretty cool. Well, you know, it's really cool, Tim. It's putting, I would say that, you know, it's putting how you put a few of them together in order to basically make the probability assessment of where we are, you know, which is so unique. It's just, it's where it's at, man. And listen, folks, you know, come over to our website at TFNN. You can, you know, you can test drive the, you know, the S&P one first. It's only $2.95. Oh, you want to do both of them. It's $4.95. You know, you're going to have a great workshop. I mean, it's an hour and a half of great learning that you haven't had. And then a half hour of questions, because there will be questions. Because, Tim, do you remember the first workshop? So, folks, picture this. I flew Tim in up to Waltham. And we had a day trading shop. And the first workshop, we came out of there and Tim was teaching us the ABCs. And this was, that's how I know it was 96, Tim, because that's when I brought you in, right? Well, we went out of our minds, folks. You can imagine. You're running a, owned a brokerage firm or something. It was, yeah. And so we were going out of our minds. Remember that it was like, oh my God, I can't believe how these ABCs work, right? Because you've got to remember something, folks. In the 90s, these ABCs, you know, just like when you get a trending market, they work beyond belief in a trending market, you know? So, really cool. Well, listen, man, this is a pleasure. You have a great long weekend, a safe one. And of course, we look forward to having you on next Thursday, Tim. All right. Thanks a lot. Thanks, man. Talk to you in. Thank you. Stay right there, folks, we'll come right back.