 What is up everybody welcome to week six of the NFL season Gonna be breaking down this pretty fun Thursday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Philadelphia Eagles Looking mostly at this thing from a single game slate standpoint on Fandle, but If you have some season long questions You can get those in if you have some props questions. I have a few that I like But as usual, I'm going to be running down some things like historical optimal lineup trends show you guys my Game simulations and ranges of outcomes for tonight's slate. It's gonna be a fun one That that total of 52 and a half doesn't really feel like a Thursday night Point total we have a lot of injuries For the Eagles, it's their offensive line for the Bucks is their defense So welcome on in to the Fandle NFL Q&A for this week I'm your host Brandon Gadoula the managing editor over at number fire comm you can find all of my content at number fire I do a bunch of simulations Some start-sit stuff to help you with all of your start-sit decisions Showing things like the probability that you know players are top 12 or top 24 within their position rather than just kind of us you know a Sit column based on some guys with some tough match-ups I put out some floor ceiling projections For the main slate those come out on Fridays As always I do a an NFL heat check with Jim Sonnis. We go over the main slate in detail Lots to talk about on the main slate, but again, you can find all that work at number fire comm Remember, this is a Q&A format so get those questions in you can hit up Comment section on YouTube Facebook Twitter or Twitch if you have questions for tonight's game I see some rolling in and keep them coming But I want to break down this thing as I always do looking first and foremost at this game from a high level standpoint again, 52 and a half point total Six and a half point spread for the road buccaneers That implies a lot of scoring and a fairly tight game overall. I'm not saying it's gonna be Three-point game throughout but it's not so no, it's not a double-digit spread So I'll go over some of what that means historically from a single game slate, but Get those questions in and I will break down the overview for tonight's game I always like to look first at individual match-ups in terms of units looking here Philadelphia and Tampa Bay really ranking about league average in passing net expected points per drop back a lot of opposing quarterbacks, which is basically I mean his number fires expected points model shows that they're about league average defenses One thing that stands out though is that they allow a high success rate Which with this combination of a high success rate and a kind of a middling or top 12 Expected points per drop back number kind of implies consistent gains let up, but somewhat stifling the deep play by contrast So either way not a passing matchup to avoid for either side here as far as rushing goes We know that buccaneers defense has a really good rush defense Rating out basically, you know top top four across the board and some key metrics for opposing running backs meanwhile The Eagles are rating out kind of bottom tier in some of number fires metrics as well as adjusted fandal points per carry allowed to Opposing running backs so that could put us on Leonard for net for tonight As far as receiving goes Phillies about you know average really if you're if you're not top five Or bottom five matchups kind of overrated We do see a little bit of that though with the buccaneers against running backs out of the backfield, which makes sense because teams don't really Run the ball in the buccaneers. So just by nature. They're gonna at you know, give up a lot of receiving production To running backs relative to what they typically those running backs typically accrue and then one more thing I like to look at here Some pace both teams top 12 in non garbage time pace this season both teams also top seven in Pass rate again outside of garbage time with the buccaneers leading. That's gonna put us pretty heavily on Tom Brady first and foremost. So that's kind of that's kind of an overview I'm gonna dig into some questions again. If you have some YouTube Facebook Twitter or Twitch, and I'll get to those Probably in just a second here. I'll be going over my Sims, but Let's see what we got here Andrew on Facebook is asking is tonight a night to fade Brady on in DFS and Roster Evans or Brown or roll with both Hertz and Brady and find value elsewhere. So That question there's kind of multiple questions within that I will show you guys this Not that I was hiding it, but just a good time to show you guys If you look at all optimal line-ups in single-game slates since 2019 The MVP has historically been a quarterback and in games with totals above 50 and tight like, you know The spreads between four and a half and eight and a half We've seen the quarterback actually overperform from that perspective being the MVP and optimal line-ups about 54 percent of the time Which is about a seven point boost So unfortunately from this standpoint that does point to Tom Brady rostering Tom Brady will not be Like people are gonna want to roster Tom Brady at MVP I get that And Additionally in these types of game environments, we see the MVP come from the favorite And about a 6040 clip a little bit higher than that even and it's most likely just that in these game scripts The MVP is the favorite quarterback. So that points to Tom Brady again That's still 34 percent of the time this has happened and in my sims Which by the way kind of ran things with him without Dallas Goddard But I'm proceeding as if Dallas Goddard is not going to play Tom Brady rates out as the MVP about 34 percent of time, which is just on par with his historical average. So that's kind of how I'm viewing Tom Brady is Second most likely favorite in the Sims if you adjust for this context historically just the most likely play to be the MVP So I'm not particularly fading Tom Brady I think you can still play Tom Brady at MVP on Fandle and differentiate in different ways Most notably by rostering him with one of his top three receivers. So Antonio Brown Mike Evans Chris Godwin and then A sort of tertiary or I guess in that case a quaternary or even quinary piece Where we would roster one of the tight ends because Rob Grunkowski is out again. So no, I'm not fading Brady He's going to be very chalky at MVP. So you can find leverage by you know playing him outside of the MVP But again all signs point to Brady being a great MVP pick probability-wise relative to everyone else And then the secondary question here is Hertz and Brady With that, it's kind of hard to go with both quarterbacks because if you do that You're looking at 93 33 left for your remaining three positions the one Way that you can really make this work is By going down here to Zach or it's assuming Dallas Goddard doesn't play and then you're back up to 10,750 for your final two. I think this is going to be a super chalky build like a start This very easily could be in the optimal because we have value with Zach Hertz, but You know probability-wise this is a good start. It's a very safe start But game three wise I think this will be very popular and I'm trying to avoid it in most situations So I know that kind of doesn't answer your question To the point where I'm saying like I'm not gonna fade Brady I don't think you play both quarterbacks because the salary is too tight And the most obvious way that you're gonna get there is by rostering Zach Hertz Who is shaping up to be pretty popular assuming Dallas Goddard does not play? Question from I need money on YouTube. You'd like to score a touchdown on the Eagle side I'll jump over to my sims again And look at a few things here looking at number fires projections And just seeing who we projected number fire. These aren't my projections that come from number fire I use these to base the simulations on with some Dynamic ranges of outcomes based on you know, we know that a rushing quarterback Typically has a bit of higher higher ceiling than a passing quarterback, which is why you see Jaylen Hertz a little bit outperform Tom Brady from a top-square perspective despite the same the same median outcome, but I will sort this hopefully and I had been having a lot of spreadsheet issues this week So I had to kind of rebuild things to hopefully the source properly, but Okay, well that's good enough and then let's filter this just to Philly So number fire saying that Miles Sanders unsurprisingly the most likely touchdown score From the Eagles at about point four six, but on Vandal sportsbook Plus two ten to score so kind of outperforms those odds there So I like my old Sanders in that situation despite the fact that I know it's a really tough rushing matchup But my old Sanders can get targets out of the backfield He kind of fended off Kenneth gain. Well from that standpoint Last week, so I'm still fairly high on my old Sanders despite the almost impossible rushing matchup But we also have Zach Hertz At a point two seven gain while himself's a point three one Hertz is point four one to score a rushing touchdown and Devontae Smith. I would probably go Sanders and Smith I know it's the chalky way to go avoiding Zach Hertz here, but If I had to pick one it's gonna be Devontae Smith Just because he runs a ton of routes relative to everyone else and he should get a little bit extra work if Goddard's out So I'm gonna say I'm gonna say Smith But pretty pretty decent odds across the board for some Eagles to get in to the end zone DJ's asking is it safe to start the Bucks defense this week? Yeah I would say so, you know that the Eagles offensive line is really really decimated no Lane Johnson no brainer Brooks And some just some more injuries now that the Bucks themselves are pretty banged up defensively so You might have better options on The waiver wire, but all things considered, you know short week Thursday night, even with the high total Don't worry too much about a high total when it comes to defenses about 60% of Defensive scoring from a fantasy standpoint just come from sacks and turnovers points allowed doesn't really do a whole lot I mean you need turnovers and you need some sacks and that could be on the the docket if the Buccaneers play from ahead and Jalen Hertz is forced to drop back extra And he's gonna drop back extra anyway, just because nobody really runs on the Bucks They have opponents against them have a seventy seven percent pass rate Excluding garbage time. So that's that's crazy high So I'd feel pretty good with the Bucks from that standpoint Overall question from Jarvis Hertz or Murray standard league. Oh boy Pretty good problem to have It is really scary to feel like you're gonna bench Kyler Murray, but he's got Offensive line issues himself his shoulders not a hundred percent The wind is projected to be almost 20 miles per hour in that game and that really points to a big downgrade. I would Again, I have a I have an article my start-sit article on Number fire Each week goes up. It shows that the probability that each player for in this instance quarterback finishes as a top 12 quarterback for the week Based on number fires projections hurts at 55 percent colors at 53 percent. I Would probably lean hurts just because I feel a little bit safer That's one of those where it's close enough I can't follow you if you really feel like it's Kyler, but I would lean hurts as scary as that is um DJs asking start Khalil Herbert with Damian Williams out. Is there any rooms have rolled out? I Must have missed that I was too focused on this game. I Did not see that Damian Williams was out But if yeah, if he's out, I'd play Herbert fine again I have to do some updates to the start-sit then but I would be fine with Khalil Herbert assuming that Williams actually is Out oh, he's got on the code. Okay, so yeah if there's no Damian Williams Khalil Herbert, I would say we've seen enough from him to start pretty comfortably over a lot of Sort of you know the guys that you would consider him against so feel pretty good there Even though the Bears should play from behind They still want to run the ball as much as they can So that should lead to some extra carries for Herbert in that context. So if you have if you have Herbert Pretty heads up pick up there Um Producer Cal saying he sees it confirmed. So thanks Cal and thanks DJ. So news to me again I had a lot of spreadsheet stuff. I had to reset up here for this week It's been a bit of a nightmare and I was really focused on digging into this game. So Very good call. But yeah, Khalil Herbert um, I Like that call for this week question from Phillip non PPR Beckham or Knox. Oh goodness. Um So That's all right with the wind for the Cleveland game I Might lean Dawson Knox there from a touchdown upside standpoint. I think the The issues with Odell Beckham are a little bit overstated. It's working his way back He's around 60% of snaps in his first game around 75% the past two games What you don't want to see is the Three Targets to catches 20 yards whenever your offense kind of erupts But Odell Beckham still has a lot of high leverage looks going his way In terms of downfield work now again with some wind concerns. That's problematic I would be fine Going with Knox in that standpoint in that matchup from that standpoint, but Boy I might think I might lean Dawson Knox there. So boy, that's a That's a tough spot For Odell. I can't believe we're here. But that that question alone kind of sums up week six fantasy football For sure question from Greg. I had Williams filling in this week for Camara now that he's out My options are Tony Pollard or Jamal Williams on the bench or should I look to add an RV? Always look to add running backs if you can That's kind of an obvious answer but between the two I Think Jamal Williams makes for a fine play. I like this game. It's in a dome. We have wind concerns pretty much everywhere and You know, the the Tony Pollard role is a bit overstated. He's been hyper productive on his snaps. He's and I've been looking into this He's like 28th In PPR points per snap since 2016 among all flex players and it's like a sample of like 2,300 guys. So He's really out for overperforming. I think Jamal Williams is very much in play in a game That's in a dome Control environment that always is good for fantasy points. So I would be cool with Jamal Williams in that spot Question from Philip. Do you think Adam feeling will bounce back? feeling for me is always a bit Problematic just because the yardage upside is never really there for him. He's very touchdown dependent and even with those touchdowns You're looking at like a two touchdown game and he scores 17 You know fantasy points. That's not the type of receiver that I like to target Will he bounce back? Honestly, he's been kind of He's been someone I've been eyeing up For years now as a touchdown regression candidate in the negative sense. So I'm not that high on feeling But in terms of if you're asking to trade him who you would trade Involving feeling or would you target him? I also publish number fires trade values. Those go up every Tuesday Show standard league half PPR and PPR values and it's based what I like about these is they're based on Rest of season projections not a whole lot of conjecture and assumptions of roles But I would definitely say I'm low on feeling but check out number fires projections and that trade value chart They're probably higher than I am personally Question from Greg the option at the waiver wire David Johnson mark Ingram Latavius Murray Would you go over any of them over Jamal? Probably not but you could pick up Latavius and just see what happens there Not a whole lot of interest in The Texans backs although Tyra Taylor should be coming back soon and that should be a boost to that offense But I think you could pick up Murray if you have someone else that you could drop Um question from Chris passing yards Brady or Hertz Okay, so I'm gonna see what number fire says Here, I know it's gonna be Tom Brady, but Tom Brady 288 Hertz 254 255 really Yeah, it's really hard to go against Tom Brady their pass rate again in situation adjusted Caught play like plays non garbage time plays. They just leave the league Philadelphia is not particularly worrisome from a passing stand or a past defense standpoint. So For me, it's it's a pretty easy path for Brady to lead over Jalen Hertz in yardage for tonight. So You know, it's close enough where it would probably simulate out to be fairly decent, but you know, it's Really hard to go away from Brady in this standpoint Question from Larry any updates on if Carson would back on the field this week. I haven't seen anything personally There'll be a not the most ideal matchup no No Russ so Not really that interested myself question from Barrier Bay Area football cards, so I start to want a Smith Van Jefferson or Jalen waddle. I'm gonna go Devonte Smith. They're pretty easily I like Smith I'm really high on him in terms of what this offense does and the role that he has He runs like 10 more routes than any other Eagle kind of consistently Gets downfield work. It's a it's a high-risk play always, but I'm definitely a better Role for him than the other guys. I have Smith rating out about 46% likely to finish as a top 24 receiver for the week Again, you can check this out on number fire and go to my start sit column Shows those the sort of baseline projections for guys It's it's Smith pretty easily there and I feel pretty good even with their offensive line a bit dinged up Another question from Philip a non-PPR would just start knocks Beckham or Gaskin Gaskin had an amazing role Last week sounds like they want to get in the ball Maybe a little bit more than they have his snap rate had been pretty strong It was about 65 percent Weeks one through three then like down to 25 percent week four and then in this matchup against the Bucks Got a lot of a lot of receiving work. I Think I'd go Gaskin there Just because even if it's a even if it's non-PPR Running backs can can generate production on receiving I think it's You know targets matter even in standard league, so I feel pretty good with Gaskin Out of those three All right, I want to I want to make sure that I go over my simulations a little bit more in detail just because You know, that's the main focus of this show is focusing on this single-game slate I'm a sort by median projections because this is where things get really really interesting We have Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady being about equal. We know that historically It's the favorite quarterback who is more likely to finish as the MVP based on Hurts's rushing ability rates out a little bit better for me from a ceiling standpoint, but a little bit worse from a top five standpoint and You know just the 1.6 passing touchdown expectation for him versus two and a half for Brady But we have this huge tier of six guys Between 11.2 and 12.7 Fandall points across 10,000 slate simulations. It's Leonard for net Miles Sanders and then the four primary receivers in this game So what do we do here well again jumping back to the historical optimal lineups Running backs do see a dip in these types of games in terms of their odds of Finishing as the optimal MVP compared to the full sample, but they're so much more likely than receivers to get there About 23 to 14% Tight ends I will note here. This makes it look like tight ends are in a really good spot There have been it's a 35 game sample as you can see up here in this sample I Three tight ends were MVPs twice. It was Travis Kelsey once it was Robert Tonion Sure, these tight ends have multi touchdown upside if things break their way and if you know multiple touchdowns go to You know Cameron Brayte, O.J. Howard, Zach Ertz It's really gonna throw a wrench into the viability of the receivers, especially because they'll be fighting each other for targets in your yardage Anyway, but I will I just wanted to point that out that this doesn't necessarily mean it's a great spot For tight ends still less than 10% likely for them to finish as the MVP and again twice of that two times that was Travis Kelsey and then I always like to look at Kicker numbers. This is not a great game script for kickers They're about 10 percentage points less likely to get into the optimal lineup in this type of game environment compared to overall games That's because the total is high it should mean more touchdowns and that means, you know kickers have They have a floor but they don't really have the ceiling to match so not a not a great kicker slate That doesn't mean you don't play any of them But it's not a it's not a night to load up on kickers based on historical trends And then of course when the underdog is an MVP in these game scripts surprisingly running backs fit well, but this is a 13 game sample out of the 35 total in this split So if you're gonna play an eagle at MVP, not surprisingly it looks like Jalen Hertz is the way to go Now, of course, this doesn't adjust for tonight's matchup. This is just a historical thing Miles Sanders doesn't have the greatest workload. So it's a horrendous rushing matchup overall And then we see a low probability for receivers to get there But Devonte Smith does have a really high a dot high high market share so that leads to high Like a high upside play because the air yards will be there so If I'm not gonna roster Tom Brady at MVP unsurprisingly, it's gonna be Jalen Hertz at MVP But if I'm gonna go elsewhere With a non quarterback I think I'm really looking at Chris Godwin because he's coming off of a week where he had like the best workload among the Buccaneers receivers With those 11 targets if you adjust for the fact that he had three downfield and four red zone targets Is equal to about almost 16 targets worth nobody else in this game I had a target number a weighted target number higher than 11 Again, you can see here. I'll zoom in Expected Fandall points for last week Godwin led But he fell behind in terms of his You know conversion on that opportunity underperformed by about six and a half points Mike Evans and Antonio Brown Overperformed by more than 12 points So I think Chris Godwin makes a lot of sense if we're looking to Deviate from the quarterbacks for tonight Question from DJ thoughts and Dan Arnold this week, I think Arnold's fine Pretty it's pretty clear. They want to try to get him involved and they kind of need to get him involved He's actually rating at about 39% likely to finish the top 12 tight end definitely You know in the terms of viability. He's a he's a consider for me in terms of my My start sit column. That's definitely not something that you would look to bench I have some other options above him Like Hunter Henry in a game that I like a bit more But I know issues with that Dan Arnold all things considered Jumping back to this single-game slate Just want to look at the Sims once more Leonard for net Really stands out from a touchdown odd standpoint. He's a favorite to score on Fandall sports book at minus 110 He's the most likely to score a scrimmage touchdown According to number fires projections So I'm probably gonna deviate from Tom Brady. I know that I said he's the most Kind of most justifiable MVP play, but that's not how I play things. I like the game theory angle of single-game slates I will go with Jalen Hertz I will go with Chris Godwin and I will go with Leonard for net Primarily at MVP for tonight. I like the touchdown odds for for net. I like the top score odds plenty and With for net we've seen a really good workload from him if they're playing from ahead Which is what the spread indicates then it's not gonna be a heavy geo Bernard game. I like the touchdown odds for him So lots of ways to go even though it feels like we're locked in to both quarterbacks at MVP Plenty of other ways to go on Fandall for tonight's slate That is gonna do it for me for the Thursday night NFL Q&A. Thanks for tuning in Big thank you as well to Calvin Theobald for producing the video running that side of things Featuring your questions. Thanks again to everyone for tuning in. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter at Goodwill 13 Check out my DFS content on number fire. Best of luck tonight, and let's hit a big stack