 Almost time for the bell, how many options will you sell? Fire up your platform, get ready to enter But first let's get the mindset centered Let's trade it, have success, find the worst Stats and probabilities is what we're about Time to dismiss greed and doubt, focus on the process Not the money and the profits will flow like honey Power our lives, let's start the show Come on trade hackers, get ready to options Time to make bank, get locked and loaded Then be ready to play What's up everyone? Welcome to Power Hour Live on a Monday, September 11th Hope everyone's having a good day Quite a tight little range today I know I saw a couple of you got Barely ticked out of your AM trades Unfortunately I booked both, hit both profit targets on the AM Hit one profit target on the DKS Before getting stopped out for a profit on the second portion I've got my quiet lunch on, which comes down a little bit See my 40% profit targets at 7.45 It was trading down to low 8 It's at about 10 right now A little down move to hit my first profit target on the QL And for Power Hour we got some low, low premiums My friends, how low can they go? Volatility's been contracting all day Here's a five minute chart of VIX Obviously on Monday as we know it pops up Actually pushed up after the open And then it's just been dwindling ever since down to 13.76 I bought some longs for Tranche 1 Got my longs locked in for Tranche 1 I'll enter the shorts here in a few minutes I haven't seen this We had several periods here where this thing Barely even moved between 5-point strikes and SPX I mean since 1235 Central We have literally been sitting at 44.86 So let's see if SPX can stay in a tight range For us for Power Hour We'll definitely be doing a straddle The question is, is it going to move towards a strike To give us a little bit more of a balanced straddle Or is it going to be a little bit lopsided As far as the price of the calls and the puts Right now it's right in between So choosing the 85s or the 90s Pretty close in price Alright, so gotta make a choice Looks like ever so slightly closer on the 44.90s And since DK gave me that bullish trade idea I'm going to air a little bit to the upsides I'm going to go 44.90s Tranche 1 straddle Trying to get filled at 6.20 Almost right on the dot 5 till the hour 44.90s straddle Let's just check up on some other positions While we've got time looking at the TGIF Ball utility contractings It's down a little bit I did enter a new 1-2 and a 1-3 B&B Those are down a tiny bit Took off a short strangle in MES today Hit profit target Other ones doing just fine Our ducks are doing just fine Added a calendar adjustment to our time fly Quiet lunch Like I said, I'm trying to get out at 7.45 To close the first half I'm currently trading at 8.80 So staying right here For a little while longer Or just a little down move would hit that You guys are kind of quiet today I know the market is quiet That doesn't mean you guys have to be quiet Everybody hear me okay? Alright, good good Thought I was just hanging out by myself there for a minute By the way, if you're new here We do have a lot of downtime here between positions So if you have questions Need us to fill in some gaps Now is a good time 25 kilometer bike ride earlier Nice I ran in a 5K run this weekend My youngest son wanted to Wanted to run in it He's getting into cross country And then my oldest ran with us too And my oldest ended up winning the whole thing It's 13 I Was leading up to it as, you know I kept saying your little brother's going to beat you I mean he's been running And my oldest is, he's a sprinter Like he's always been really fast And he was determined Not to let his little brother beat him And so he took off out of the gate Never slowed down Running it in like 24 minutes and something Beated the younger brother by a couple minutes And then dad, you know We won't discuss my time but I finished I ran the whole time I ran a half marathon last November But then it was like right after I got done with that Training for that, I just Stopped running all together So I When my son asked me to do this 5K I was like, oh I better, I better at least get out there And see if I can run a few miles still So I ran one 5K on Wednesday I think it was, just on my own Yeah, it's a Running's not very fun when you don't Keep up with it Yeah, I'm definitely not a Definitely not a natural runner Alright, quiet lunch down to 8.20 I'm looking for 7.45 And if that hits, I would reduce my stop From 18 down to 6 For the remaining, and trailer remaining Remaining half of it Yeah, you can go half and half I think Dick Cave put in that at one time And I I did it, I've done it a couple of times But for me it's just easier just to Especially with doing three tranches just to Because then you get Two positions to manage just for tranche one But yeah, it's certainly a viable way to do it Yeah, you know, Oughton Reich I hesitated to do that Because I don't want to Promote bending the rules But I also think you got to You know, for me, when I'm Like I mentioned, when I'm Building my trade plan out I'm just not getting that granular You know, I'm not looking at Tenths of percents to To decide on what those criteria is So, you know, if it comes to a situation Where it's right on the borderline I'll run it through the test And see what the effect is If it would have affected it, I would have passed But the fact that there's almost no effect To me, it just made sense to Especially on a day like today When there's zero going on You know, if there have been A bunch of Fed speakers this afternoon Or something, you know, I may have passed As well, but as long as You can differentiate In your Trade plan and your rules Of, you know, doing Something like that versus Oh, I'm just going to hold this a little Bit longer, that's the same thing, right We're just kind of bending the rules Well, to me, it's not It's completely different But it's clear On Why I thought that was okay But if you're somebody who's Susceptible to Okay, if I bend this rule Then I'm going to bend the next one Then that's not a good thing What do I think about exiting A position 5% away From profit target So, like on the quiet lunch here Instead of Closing half at 40% At 35% I'm going to go ahead and take it off Is that what you mean? Yeah, I don't do that Definitely don't do that And I know it's tempting, especially if you're just sitting here staring at the screen And it's getting close And you start doing all kinds of You know, analysis Of, oh, I think it's going to go up Now it's not going to hit it, it was so close I could just take it now I don't play that game I set my profit targets and They hit, they hit I don't agree with that bending of a rule That type of bending rules Because you can easily go into Option omega and say, okay Well, what if I took it off at 45 versus 50 You don't quantify that Based on, obviously it's Historical trades But, you know You'll notice a difference Ryan P, I didn't I didn't see the I didn't have a chance to Look at those posts, so I'm not sure Comment Was that in the zero DTE channel So is that in regards to If it's right in between strikes Taking a straddle on either side Or going inverted Instead of the straddle The way I think about it is If it's in the middle I would do a I would be okay doing a straddle On one strike And a straddle on the other But I would be managing them As two separate trades Because from a risk profile Theoretically it's just like an inversion It's just like going inverted But if you're going to manage them as two separate straddles Then to me that's a little bit different Because then if price Bounces around you're Potentially going to be able to reduce stop on one Then it goes back up Reduce stop on the other There's a lot of little factors That could come into play there Depending on how you manage your Your trades. Alright A few minutes away from Trunch 2 And we haven't moved By in my lungs for Trunch 2 Right now it's like the 4490 Straddle for Trunch 2 But I'm going to give it a few minutes Quiet lunch Is it 760 750 And filled So I need to move my stop From 18 to 6 6 Nice Very nice It was It was a quality lunch Quality quiet lunch Alright so maybe 4485 For Trunch 2 4485 Filled at 520 On the 4485 Straddle for Trunch 2 Man I have not seen This Extended amount of time With this flat of a price movement In quite a while Next profit target for their Remaining of Remaining piece of the quiet Lunch would be 245 So nothing On the schedule for tomorrow either As far as economic reports go And then of course Wednesday's CPI Thursday PPI Next week On the house The FOMC on Wednesday 5 minutes till Trunch 3 Agui I don't No I'm not sure I understand your question But I don't trade iron condors in the morning I have a couple of Specific FOMC trades That I'll That I'll do that day but not the Not the normal ones I assume that's your question By some more longs for Trunch 3 And we would Technically get ourselves a little 5-point strangle here if it holds I'll dig up my My FOMC trades on option Omega here in a minute after we get into Trunch 3 If I remember right After they introduced the Interminute stop losses are The initial one Ended up not being as good as it We thought it was before Before Interminute stop losses We're introduced At the FOMC Rick I think was still Really nice Looks like it might be the 90-85 Strangle Give it another little bit 90-85 Strangle for 240 Filled at 235 And if you waited it would probably be The 44-90 straddle now And it looks like I was stopped out of the rest of my Quiet lunch for a profit Sorry Tevis Didn't mean to make your heart jump Heart jump Yeah mine started at 18 Reduced down to 6 On a 3-2 I got hit at I got stopped out at 1150 So I can't remember My profit target hit at 745 So my stop was then to reduce 6 bucks above that Bit more trail Stopped at 1150 I just got out of my Long MES trade I booked $246.25 On your Divergence idea I appreciate that That number is eerily close To what it cost me to send you some Barbecue There you go Exactly Ken Made that money back before My credit card statement showed up Oh yeah so FOMC So I was going to Get my FOMC test So here it is Yeah and this is so After the inter-minute Stop losses were Available In Option Omega This is good let me see if I got the Last FOMC date in there July 26 I think that's the last one right So going back to the beginning of 2022 Still 75% win rate I mean not Not bad just let me see what it looked Like without inter-minute stops Because it I remember it definitely had an effect That's showing no effect Must have been thinking about something else So basically the way The way that this Trade works is We enter Just before the data is Released at 150pm Eastern and then we take It off before Take it off by 225 Eastern Right before Jerome takes The stand for the press Conference So essentially we're getting in right before the data is Released the data is released The market does a little dance But we get a big contraction In implied volatility and typically the move Happens either during Or after his press conference and so We just kind of capture A quick little decay In that time So that's that one The FOMC reverse iron Condor kind of Takes advantage of the Once the press conference starts So essentially We are opening the trades At 235 So right after the press conference starts We've already gotten the All contraction from the initial data Release we've gotten Maybe a little bit more contraction once he starts speaking But then Typically Get some movement after that and so Going back to 2022 You can see 10 for 10 Let me check the I've got July 26 That's the last one So 10 out of 11 I guess the last one was I thought we I thought we had a nice winner on that though The back test is showing it was A tiny loss Oh I think I know what I I think last time Somebody Took this criteria And Just did a long straddle Instead Of these strikes let me see I think it's Dan B maybe I don't have the test but Looks like whether you do a Reverse iron condor or a Oh yeah that's what this is No this is reverse iron condor Never mind But it's just 50 delta Not our typical rick Strikes That's 5 BTE It's a reverse calendar what am I doing That's not what I'm looking for Yeah here we go Here's the link to the FOMC rick Yeah so you're entering right after the Right after the presser Starts Going back to the beginning of 2022 It's 12 out of 13 and it's showing the last One could have swore the last one we did Was a winner though And I'm pretty sure I just bought a straddle Instead of using the strikes here but Could be wrong Buy a put I think we're looking at like a 25% profit target 13 for 13 Bumping this profit target up See how high we can go Based on the last Sessions 40% You have two losses in there 30% you have two This looks like 25% Was the Number at least for the last 13 So this is FOMC Straddle Straddle So I'll post that here too That's the FOMC long straddle Test So I'll probably be doing both of those FOMC day And we'll be streaming live during FOMC We'll jump on about 10 or 15 minutes before the data Is released and we will Stay on For a little while Did I not share that one? Yeah, before the press conference starts You shouldn't In my opinion you should not trade Here's the FOMC iron condor In my opinion I wouldn't be trading AM iron condors on FOMC day If you've ever If you've ever done it What you'll notice is that Even if price stays Right dead centered You may have zero Or it may even expand a little bit So you're taking all the risk But you're not getting any of the benefit Of theta decay All that premium will hold All the way up until the data is released And so that's why we do it Based on that link I just posted Sometimes people Will run their back tests And they will Take out FOMC as a blackout day And then they'll play with it And they'll be like wait this back test It forms just as good or better Actually better with FOMC in there But what they don't realize is that When you're actually trading it You're sitting there and you're getting Zero theta decay all day long Until that number is released So there's in my opinion There's no reason to take that risk Until Might as well just put it on right before the data is released Which is kind of how I came up With that idea because That's from experience my friend In 18 and a half minutes until the bell All right So I'm just trying to clean something up there Still nice And centered with 14 minutes to go Thank you Tevis So I got into Trunch 1 at 620 So if it gets down to 372 Call 370 I'll reduce my stop to 670 I already get down to the stop move Area when I wasn't watching To bounce back up Just slightly Trunch 2 got in at 520 So I need that one down to 310 It's currently trading at 350 360 So if we push down a little bit Trunch 2 will get reduced Trunch 1 should get reduced Trunch 2 would get reduced to 510 Okay it's down to 310 And we got 10 minutes My friends 5 minutes to exit Okay 510 for Trunch 2 Reducing stop for Trunch 2 All right now we can bounce back up a little bit Bounce back up and get Trunch 1 Back down to 370 we can reduce That one as well Races on can we reduce the stop Before we exit Right above here Sweet spot Point or 2 higher would be just fine I said just Point or 2 higher would be just fine 2 minutes till I exit Trunch 2 at Buck 35 Build at $1.35 that's on Trunch 3 Trunch 2 is at $1.40 Trunch 1 Let's just go with 525 Get a little bounce Trunch 1 filled at 525 Trunch 3 trying to get Time to exit about 210 About 220 225 All right all three winners How about that Low-low premium but still booked Three winners on all three Trunches All right good stuff my friends Way to start the week Didn't have any losers on zero DTE today Very nice day Guys and gals we will be here tomorrow Chad will be running the live stream For tomorrow And the next day But will be here for power hour all week All right guys take care cheers Have a good night