 A compilation of major reports shows of 400 Nigerians were killed in the first three weeks of 2022. And the newly amended election act bill bars voters from contestant candidates' certificates in court. This is plus politics, I am Justin Acadone. At least 486 people were killed in the first three weeks of 2022 by non-state actors across Nigeria. An average of 22 people a day, a compilation of major reports shows that over 80% of the killings were carried out by terror groups that have terrorized the north of the region. In the first week of the year, at least 216 people were killed by armed persons. The victims include the 200 killed in Zamfara, the seven killed in Kaduna, three in Plateau, three in Aqaibam and three in Nondo State. In the second week at least 37 people were killed by non-state actors. The figures include 18 in Plateau, one in Abuja, one in Imo and 17 in Kaby State. Now in the third week at least 13 people were killed, three persons in Kaduna, four in Abuja, one in Aqaibam and five in Niger State. Now last week the Niger State governor, Sonny Bello, announced that at least 220 people were killed in his state between January 1 and 17. But joining us to discuss this is Kaby, the more security risk management expert and if you want a security analyst. Let's start with Kaby. Good evening to you, Kaby. Many thanks for joining us and plus politics. Good evening. I think it's my pleasure to be here. All right, Kaby, let's just dive into this particular worrying issue. From what we hear, about 486 people have been killed so far in just about 22 days in three weeks in 2022. What does this really tell us? Because it is really sudden if you consider that's about an average of 80 or 42 people daily. What does this really tell us about the security situation judging by the fact that the president came out sometime earlier this year in January 1 and was telling us that security is a bit under control in the country? Unfortunately, the reality says otherwise, it says that the situation is not exactly under control. It's where you have this number of persons being killed and clearly social order, the social contract that has brought us together, the people is no longer as tenable as it should be. Even if it were 10 persons that were being killed in a month in Nigeria, it's still worrisome. But in this instance, we're talking about hundreds, 400. I do have my reservations regarding the sources used by this particular report. I run a consultancy and we keep our own data of deaths and I know that in 2021, the list that we recorded for Edmont was around the same 400. In fact, in June of last year, we recorded 1,032 deaths just in Edmont alone. Now I don't know what methods this particular compiler, this data used. What I can tell you that the figure is almost similar to what we're also keeping using industry standard and scientifically verified methods. Now there are certain teams, common elements that run across all the locations where this death is being recorded and that is the issue of non-state actors that have harmed themselves and that are now challenging the supremacy of the use of force by the state and unfortunately they are successfully challenging that supremacy. So if you go to the north east, you have terrorist groups. If you go to the north west and north central, you have bandits or terrorists who depend on what you want to call them. And then if you go to the south east and to an extent south south, you have the session is groups that have been challenging the authority of the state as well as militants and sometimes in gunmen who are criminally oriented. So that's the common feature really across almost all parts of the federation and it speaks at one thing which is the weakness of the state institutions, first off to protect citizens and residents and then secondly to ensure that this non-state actors who are challenging the supremacy of the state are arrested and penalized. Unfortunately we were not seen enough of that. So more of these non-state actors are arriving and becoming bolder to do that and that is why we are seeing this situation. There are three guards for these issues. One of the three guards is politics and as you probably are aware, the political system has convinced, there is a lot of political issues that are driving attention at the moment, the activity and motion state elections are being discussed. The national convention of the ruling party is an issue. The main opposition party, the political democratic party, is also discussing more intensively, it's likely like theirs and this is also increasing the tension as well as the potential for violence as well as the death. One issue that remains to be researched is the rise in ritual killings. My consultancy, the database that we keep, has seen that rise in ritual killings where they are best in body organs and a lot of their anecdotal information suggests that that rise is associated with the politics that I discussed earlier. So that's why it takes 486 people to comment on. Okay fine, we'll get back to it. We'll try and analyze the figures and statistics that have been reeled out to us. For more than 80% of the killings were carried out by terror groups that have terrorized not west and not central zones of Nigeria. In a minute we'll come back to you Kabeir. But let's bring up security analyst Efe, one hour until this particular in no discuss. Good evening to you Efe, thanks for joining us on Clots Politics. Good evening, it's always a pleasure to be here. Yes, these figures are really very worrisome. It's just been three weeks in 2022 and we hear that over 486 people have been killed, the ones that we know so far. Some of them have not actually been reported. But more worrisome is that these acts were carried out by non-stick actors and Kabeir just gave us a bit of an overview and he said that these terrorists and these criminals are becoming bolder by the minutes. What have we failed to see as it is stemming this issue of security in Nigeria? Oh, okay, if you want to thank your last question correctly, what do you expect us to do to stem the tide? What have we failed to see, that these non-actors are becoming bolder by the day? Oh, okay, okay, much clearer. For me, I'm very worried even before this report came out. The last time I saw the governor of Nigeria said he executed the president in Asa Rock, you will see that Shimano is clearly helpless and it is an open secret that parts of Nigeria's state, not like your part of Buenos Aires, are under the control of non-stick actors. In other words, there is an absence of government authority outside of Nigeria that is concerned. And in terms of what we are shown to see or what we've done, for me, there is no end game in sight and there is no concerted tactical approach to saying that this is how we want to go about it. It appears that terrorism and the like have been accepted as a norm now. We must now continue at a branch of Nigeria's historical and anti-terrorism network. We must be now and again a continuous fight which is not fully coordinated and tailored towards a definitive end. So we have this situation where you make one in-road today, you step back, you make another in-road tomorrow, and you also allow the terrorists to criminalize the aggressors, it holds the will, and then you wait for the while you go again. So at first I'm concerned what I find missing is the apparent lack of a coordinated approach which regards to having efficient manpower, efficient equipment, and strategy which goes into huge taxes on the ground. We think we want to disturb what we're looking to achieve with ex-manpower, deploying from ex-regions. As it stands, it appears like our military and our security agencies have said that certain parts of the country cannot be effectively secured. That is the impression that I have being from the security environment. So I wonder what the other in Nigeria and the United States and elsewhere would feel. You know we can juxtapose this issue that happened in Paraguay, while we also have people from Kenneros coming in, Ambaroneas, whatever you call them, coming to attack Nigeria. And we understand nothing from the Nigerian perspective. So whereas we have internal issues we are dealing with, we have terrorists that have also turned the phone off, and also have those ones that are climate-induced in terms of the air region and the third angle, the issues of climate change that are facing them. So for me, it is missing on the part of the government that they have a strategy and a tactic to deliver the consequences on me. They need to really step up and the citizens need to know what the plan is and what is the end game. Is this going to be the case continuously or is this government, the plan of the government is off, and then the next one will come and continue. What is the end game? It is missing. All right, thank you Efe for your input. Let's bring back Kabeh into this discussion. I'm sure you have heard Efe's point of view. He seemed to note the issue of a lack of coordinated approach, issues of manpower and equipment. But specifically he was emphatic when it came to a Niger state. Let's talk about that for just one minute. The governor said at least 220 people were killed in his state between January 1 and 17, although most of the killings in the state were un-reported until the governor's statement, meaning that the media could have missed out on the exact figure. What is happening in Niger state? Is it that the state itself or the government in Niger is a bit overwhelmed as it cannot really secure the lives and the property of the resident who reside there? Kabeh? Like to categorically state that the industry standard practices that we use in collating these figures does not indicate that 220 people were killed in Niger. What's the true picture? This figure we have is much less than that. It's about 78 persons. So even the governor being the chief executive and the chief security officer in the state, one cannot dispute him. What would have been really helpful when he stated that was to have indicated where these persons were killed? Because frankly, the processes that we use to collect our information includes the security agencies and I can tell you with all sense of responsibility that even with the security agency the figures do not match what the governor mentioned. Again, because I'm quite experienced in the sector, sometimes there could be errors in when the statements are being made. I'm just hoping that that's not what happened in this instance. But then even if the figure is the 78 that I mentioned, it's very worrisome and concerning. There are about five local governments that have been more or less dominated by these non-state actors. And one of the major worries for me is our inability as a people to even disaggregate the name of these non-state actors. So I prefer to call them gunmen because on the one hand, they are terrorists, just like the federal government has recently declared them. But then on the other hand, they are unknown gunmen, depending on which security agency you discuss with. Then again, depending on what arm of the media you are engaging with, they could be called again unknown gunmen or even gunmen unknown if you want to be funny. So that is a major issue. Who are we dealing with? And what crime are they committing? Is it a terrorist offense or is it a criminal offense? Is it mandatory? Is it mandatory? How come in the 21st century, in the year 2022, we have bodies that have dominated five local governments. These are outlaws. So how can you have outlaws in a state that is governed and that has state institutions? Now, what are the common features that allow them to flourish in a state like Niger in these five local governments that I mentioned? Number one is land mass. Niger has probably the biggest land mass in any of the states in the federation at the moment. Number two is the ungoverned spaces, the forested parts. Because of this large expanse of land, Niger unfortunately is disposed to that several forested parts, several mountainous parts that allow these non-state actors to hibernate. Number three is its proximity to crime-free areas such as Kaduna. And then, of course, through the ungoverned spaces that I mentioned, there is a direct sort of link through forests that traverses Zamfara, Kasinah, Kaduna into Niger state. And then to an extent, even like you state, so a lot of the movement of these non-state actors from these locations, crime-free locations that I mentioned, ends up in Niger. So if there is an ongoing security force operation, like there is at the moment in the other locations like Zamfara, Kasinah, what they do is they move down. Of course, there is pressure on them in Kaduna. They now move down into Niger into these ungoverned spaces. Now, it's also very easy for one to conclude that the state government has not been able to respond adequately. Now, the argument by the state government is that security still remains in the federal exclusive list as well as the constitution. So the state governments cannot do a lot to address the issue because they can't control or dictate the situation. So what do you suggest? A combination, a better coordination, just like FAA has mentioned, between the federal and state government. And then a judicious use of the security vote apart from Lagos state. And perhaps, in fact, apart from Lagos state, I'm not aware that any other state has been transparent with the way it's using its security vote. What we hear is that they provide funding for FOIL, for by this security agent. Sometimes they buy vehicles for them, but no other state government is transparent in terms of how it does that. Now, what Lagos state has done is it has this security trust fund, which is a pool through which every individual in the state, every corporate body in the state is able to put money. And then that money is transparently used to support security organization. Now, that is the kind of ingenious and practical steps that would like to see things like that. So why are other states not actually burying a leaf from Lagos state? Because it's easy money. It's money that is not audited. And so they are able to use it for things that, unfortunately, I don't even want to speak about in this platform. This has been well documented. CIVLAC did a report, I remember well over two years ago, that documented this issue of security vote and how state governments, unfortunately, are not just state governments. It cuts across good state government, federal power status, name them. This is one audited money that they use it for. So again, it's easy for the governor to mention this figure, but what is more important is he should have told us, for instance, where this figure came from. And then what he is doing to ensure that by February, this figure will reduce to less than 10 and then we'll be happy. All right. Thank you, Kabir. We'll come back to you. Now, Efei, I'm sure you have been following the discussion. Let's talk about another state that gives me a bit of concern. Sometime in December, on a daily basis, we were hearing of what we could hear or we heard rather of killings along the Abuja Kaduna Expressway. From the reports that was released from the compilation, the West 7 killed the first three weeks here in 2022, three in Plateau, three in Acquirebom, and three in Undostate. Would you say, since the declaration of a bandit as a terrorist, that the situation in that particular axis that some Kaduna Abuja has actually changed for the better? Efei? Well, I would not be making the mistake of making a safety conclusion which is just what the attribution is. Because for me, and from the perspective I see, sometimes some of these things are not reported. As you are aware, the issues in Nigeria's case were not in the public domain until the government cried out. So what was happening in Abuja Kaduna Rao, sometimes you have a death of reportage as to what is going on. But even then, if we have some red spikes for a week, two weeks or a month in a particular axis, and then Sokoto and Kaduna Inland and Zafarat become issues. And by the time you think you're having some red spikes there, Nigeria is up and Borneo is up. You remember what happened with the prison district Borneo State, and there was a rocket fire into my degree, from outside, and we described it as people who are fleeing or who are being executed and what are we. So for me, I wouldn't say that the declaration of a disbanded denuclearization has achieved results for us. There is still more to be seen and to be done. And as far as I'm concerned, we need to have a proper coordination nationally. And let us not forget to mention that two days or two weeks ago it was reported that the police is complaining that Nigeria are not turning up for recruitment. The first public relations of Nigeria specifically mentioned Southern Nigeria. People are not coming up to be recruited into the police. I do not know what the army is seeing with regard to recruitment of refugees. I'm talking about 9.6, digressing a little. We are aware that it has about 10% of the land mass of the entire country. Yes, it does. What have we done to steal off the number of security agents in the country? Military to lead paramilitary. So from it appears like we are not, we don't have the agency. We have a war situation and call it staccato of sorts, you know. It is not a normal warfare. It is not synthetic warfare. So what you have here is different. It's a guerrilla kind of thing. And it might be a single group. So the country is being turned at its things by different parties. We are supposed to be in war mode. So in terms of manpower, training, personnel, there's supposed to be an aggressive recruitment. And in some cases, without them being immodest, you can see we're not even conscribed. There should be conscription going on. To have the requisite numbers and tie that into the inventory that you have and deploy appropriately. Then you can hold commanders to account. So I think that the policy of information as to what goes on in Kazina, Abu Dha Kazina Ag is now, it's not enough for us to say that yes, because we were declared as terrorists. There is now some, okay, see what happens, we decided we now have them from Kani, from the late five years ago that I was kidnapped. So this is not a franchise. Boko Haram is not a franchise. The banditry is not a franchise. Everybody is cashing in on criminality across the country. We are wetter even in southwest Nigeria. Some criminals will go to people and they will pretend and they will have a decoy and look like they have some full-annihed men. Meanwhile, they are from the southwest itself. And the same scenario across both. So I think that the government may be overweb. It's a little sick for him support. They should seek for him support. All right, they should. It's a little bit down the shoulders and the heads of the military commanders. They should do same. I'm also aware that the military have been asking that they need more equipment. They need more personnel. The police, the same thing. What about the DHS, the intelligence angle? What are they providing? What are they bringing to the table? Are you supporting them to deliver? Are you giving them the requisite manpower that they need? So I think the MRSA must be talking more to the president. He must be the one declaring the House of the Air Force we have at all these issues of insecurity. And they must be an end, they might actually repeat. You don't fight an indefinite war and expect that things will just fall into place. You don't have an approach that is basically a no approach. What is your aim? You are aware, for instance, that parts of Casun, parts of the 9th estate, parts of Buenos Aires are under siege. So what are you doing? Well, we have a relation in Anambra. We were able to deploy over 30,000 policemen. So what are you doing in those places? Why are you not mopping up people? Getting friendly forces and searching for people in that area at the same time. So when you search only 9th estate, you have some red fights and then they are off in Casunas or they are off in Zamparo. Or maybe they go to Quarro. So for me, the government needs to break down the shoulders of his commanders and beyond doing that, he must support them aggressively. All right. Thank you. Let's just get some final words from Ma'am Kabeer as we wrap up on this particular discourse. If you raise some pertinent point, you talked about the recruitment of Nigerian police, the Salvaters are not actually showing any interest. He also talked about ungoverned territories in maybe some part of the northern states in Nigeria. As we wrap up this discussion now, so what should the government, that's the federal and the state's government, be doing in the interim so that the residents can actually go to bed with both of your rides closed? I mean, better coordination is the way to go. Each of these government levels have their own security arrangements. So at the federal level, it's got like 27 ministries, department and agencies. And FA has talked about the need for coordination between the 27 ministries, department and agencies, as well as the military units. But beyond this better coordination at the federal level, I believe there is need for enhanced coordination between the federal and state levels. There is no state government, no state that you go to in Nigeria to be that does not have some form of state level arrangement. In fact, in some states, you have different state level arrangements. I can use the example of San Faraz state that has the Ansakai, which created the most that we have today in terms of boundary. If you go to Burma state, they have different civilian ATF. They have hunters, you know, unit named them. They are all state level units. And the reason why I say this is because they are documented and they have been paid some form of stipends by the state government, but they are not captured into the security architecture. So we need better coordination between the federal and the state government so that all these state level arrangements are captured into the security architecture. Now, this is for the short term. For the long term, I think we need to start having a conversation around decentralization of security arrangements at the country so that we can have some form of state level either policing or security arrangement that is recognized by the Constitution. Not this haphazard approach that we have that frankly is not helping us. It's actually causing more than helping us. All right. Thank you so much. Indeed, we need to be more coordinated in our approach to fighting the issues of security, stemming these issues in the board. Many thanks to FA1, our security analyst and of course, Kabeer Muhammad, security risk management expert. Thank you so much, gentlemen. You're welcome, Justin. Thank you for having us. All right. All right. Thank you for staying with us. We'll take a short break now. And when we return, Nigerian voters might be stopped from challenging the certificates of candidates of elections except they participated in the primaries more in a moment. Stay with us.