 What should I be betting for the Super Bowl I? Don't love this the spread right and it to me it's all about the number. What spread do you have now three? Yeah, I two and a half is much much more prevalent. Okay, so really you have two and a half I like the past if you're three I think you got to like the Rams and and that sounds a little wacky until you think Three is the most common margin of victory in the NFL So when you have a favorite around three they tend to win by three exactly about 10% of the time So for me, I think the spread is razor tight But I do like a couple of prop bets. Okay, I know before you get the prop bets I just have one real quick question about the spread. I Talked to somebody who was here saying I'm gonna buy it to three and a half Now does that make sense to do? Or do you understand what what did I mean because I don't I don't really Did okay, it doesn't make sense. Here's why okay is every point has a certain value So for example three is worth about 20 cents. All right, meaning if you're let's say minus Three and you want to buy it down to two and a half because you like the favor It's worth about 20 cents. They charge you 25 cents So any time a sportsbook lets you buy a half a point They're charging you slightly more or maybe even more than slightly more than it's worth It's almost like saying should I buy something worth a dollar for a dollar 20 the answer is no Okay, well, let me ask you this I mean it if it's so tight that that half point could be the difference between winning and losing Yes, and you still wouldn't buy it Well, but because it's it's one of those things, you know, it's like insurance and blackjack right never buy that Yeah, you know, it's yes in general. You just never buy that imagine I'm assuming Michael that you have house insurance, right? Yes, your house insurance with seven times as expensive Like whatever it is they made it seven times as expensive. What would you do? You're probably not buy, right? So sometimes even though you want to protect yourself You don't want you to protect yourself with it's too expensive to protect yourself now Let me ask you this so every three points seems to be the everybody thinks it's gonna be really tight It could be a three-point game does Vegas or any book ever accept a bet? Okay. I'm betting the push Yeah, they will say what is the margin of victory and you can actually bet almost any margin of victory You can say Patriots by three and get a certain payoff or you can say Patriots by more than 31 and get a big payoff So Super Bowl they have almost 500 profits and exact or Zach margin of victory is one of them All right, so what are the profits you like? Okay, I love Patriots over a hundred and nineteen rushing yards of the team 119 over rushing my rationality reached 16. They ran the heck out of the ball a lot of two backs 17 they did so they beat the Jets and the bills pretty easily by week They ran a bunch against the Chargers and they ran a bunch against Kansas City The Rams give up the most short per carry in the NFL against the rush the most defensively Also, if you look at the 49er game against the Rams both of them I think they're an analog of good analogy to this game The 49ers ran a good bit of two backs and was very successful running the ball So I expect the past I like them to win the game Which means they're probably gonna run the ball even more if they have a lead and I like over a hundred 19 yards As one of my best best of the week. And what was the other what was the other prop? I? like under 10 and a half points combined in the first quarter and Here's why and I tweeted out this trend. It's amazing Patriots eight Super Bowl's Brady ballot check before this one total point scored in the first quarter three Not three points a game three points in the first quarter of all eight games That's amazing. That's two games worth of eight quarters right two games. They scored three points It's not a fluke ballot check starts these Super Bowl super conservatively. It's theory is you can't win a game In the first quarter the Super Bowl but you can lose it and ten and a half is a nice number And the Rams tend to start slow when he's kind of game under ten and a half first quarter