 Good afternoon. Welcome to CMC markets on Friday, the 7th of May and today's non-farm payrolls webinar for the month of April. My name is Michael Houston to those of you who don't know me and are only tuning in for the very first time before I get started. I think it's important that everyone understands that anything that I say on here should not be construed as a direct invitation to buy or sell a particular asset, currency, pair, index, commodity or what have you, but what I will be talking about today is certainly in terms of what we can expect for the numbers, whether or not they're going to have a significant effect in the overall direction of the markets. I don't think they'll have a significant direction because I think at the moment where you remain very much in a buy the dip type mentality as far as equity markets are concerned, but also what it means for the direction of central bank policy going forward, particularly US central bank policy. And we've certainly heard an awful lot about that over the course of the past couple of weeks in the wake of the last Fed meeting, but also I think more importantly in the context of central bank policy elsewhere. Since we last spoke, which was Payroll's report a month ago, we've seen a European Central Bank rate meeting, we've seen Bank of England as recently as yesterday, and we've obviously heard from the Federal Reserve as well. And I think one of the notable things that I took away from when I last spoke to you was the fact that US 10 year Treasury yields are now lower now than they were a month ago, despite the fact that the economic data that we've seen out of the US has been by and large uniformly positive. And that for me suggests that policymakers are doing a very, very good job in terms of driving down expectations about the direction of monetary policy. Now of course, whether or not they are correct in thinking that inflationary pressures are going to be, pressures are going to be transitory. I think today's Payroll's numbers aren't going to, and I say aren't going to, add an awful lot of impetus to the overall debate about where markets are going. That's simply on the basis of the fact when we finish the end of last week, company earnings by and large have been better than expected. Confidence in the global recovery still remains fairly decent. It remains fairly high, notwithstanding what's going on in India. Now I think there is certainly an awful lot of over optimism with respect to the pace of the global recovery. I think it's going to be patchy. I think some areas are going to do much better than others. I think the US and the UK are likely to outperform simply because they are ahead of the game when it comes to the vaccine rollout strategy, which means that any second waves or third or fourth waves or whatever you want to call them or new variants are likely to limit any new lockdowns as we head into the end of this year. I think that's important. I think it's important in the context of expectations around inflation, which are probably people are taking a little bit, being a little bit complacent about. If you look at commodity prices and what copper prices have done this week, central banks won't be raising rates any time soon. Let's put that to bed right now. I think it's unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates much before 2024-2025, same with the Bank of England, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they won't modify monetary policy because there are more ways to signal a reining back of monetary stimulus than raising interest rates. You can taper the amount of asset purchases that you're doing on a month-to-month basis. The Bank of England have already indicated that they will be starting to do that in the not too distant future. The Bank of England have been basically buying assets to the tune of £4.4 billion a week. They're cutting that back by £3.4 billion a week. Now, they're saying that that is not a taper, but to my mind, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck. They are tapering monetary policy or their asset purchase program. Now, that may be more out of a sense of making sure that they've got enough bonds to be able to buy as they head towards the end of the year than anything else because they're running out of assets to buy. But I think we can certainly assume that if the data continues the way that it has been, expectations about a reining back or a retreating back of central banks will start to become much more front of mind. At the moment, it's not. It's very much back of mind. And I think that's why we've seen US Treasury yields slip back lower. If we look at the US 10-year right here, we can see that quite clearly that just over a month ago, around about the 5th of April, which was around about Good Friday, or around about that time, this is where US 10-year yields were. They were up here. Now they are down here. So they are trending lower. The big support level on the 10-year is around about 1.5%. Now, I don't expect to see that to fall below 1.5%. We are still a little bit softer, and that speaks to a federal reserve that's assuaged market concerns that they are going to be tightening monetary policy anytime soon. Certainly, if you look at where the 10-year was at the beginning of this year, there's still an awful lot of potential tightening priced into the market already. So that's been rained back a little bit. And that's important. I think this current direction of travel here was unsustainable. And as long as we stay below 1.8%, I think we're pretty much in a range between 1.5 and 1.8%. Now, is the headline number important? We are expecting 1 million jobs to be added this month, or last month, April, as it is. So let's look at the market calendar, and that can be found right here. And let's have a quick look at what is being expected. Now, the consensus estimates for this month range from anywhere between 700,000 and 1.5 million. So Reuters have stuck their estimates, slap bang, well, not quite, towards the lower end of that. And I think the reason they've come in slightly lower was because ADP earlier this week also came in a little bit lower. So there is a risk, perhaps, that the markets are underpricing the prospect that we actually might not come in above 1 million. We might come in below 1 million. But to my mind, that really doesn't make much of a difference. What's significant is the direction of travel. And while Jay Powell indicated that one jobs report does not a trend make, I think there will be disappointment if the numbers aren't anywhere north of 800,000 or 900,000. They should be well above that. Given what we're seeing, the anecdotal reports from businesses that they're struggling to fill positions, that jobs are coming back online in April, also, we saw the theme parks in the U.S., Reopen, Disneyland, Reopened, or the Disneyland theme parks. So there should be an ad back in on the jobs report there. And a whole host of outdoor leisure reopened in April as well. So you should see a very significant rebound on the back of the payroll's numbers. So let me just quickly open this alert here. And we've also got the Canadian jobs report. It's important to keep an eye on that. And that seems pretty pessimistic. They're looking for a minus 175,000 number there, which to my mind seems a bit odd, given the fact that we've seen such big gains going forward. And that potentially introduces an element of downside risk, I think, in terms of, or upside risk rather in case of the Canada jobs number, because I think there's a distinct possibility that maybe expectations are a little bit pessimistic when it comes to that. But we want to talk about the dollar. So at the moment, the dollar is at the bottom end of its recent range. So whatever the payroll's report is today, the downside to the dollar seems fairly limited if we look at it through the prism of this chart here. Decent support in and around 943. Now this is the CMC dollar index. It's not the same as the dollar index, because it has a much greater weighting of the Chinese renminbi in it, and a much lower weighting on the Euro dollar. But nonetheless, what this is telling me is that the dollar is range trading. So the downside in it, irrespective of the numbers, is likely to be fairly limited. One of the reasons we've seen the dollar weaken over the course of the past few days, in fact, past month or so, is because of higher expectations about Euro area reopening. And that's given the Euro a little bit of a bid. There's also been talk that the ECB might be looking to taper when it comes to its June meeting. Now I think that's highly unlikely. But the fact of the matter is whenever you hear policymakers talk of tapering bomb purchases and what have you, the markets tend to front run anything like that, and they tend to adjust their positions accordingly. So while the Euro is stronger, it doesn't necessarily speak to a much more optimistic economic outlook, because European economies are looking to reopen, but they remain very much behind the curve when it comes to vaccinating their populations, and their infection rates are higher. So there's a much higher degree of risk in terms of their reopening. Then there is, say, for example, the UK, the US, where the percentage of the population having first doses is much higher. So that sort of helps explain why the Euro has recovered against the dollar, and also why the pound is looking an awful lot stronger. And I think also the fact that the pound, while it's lost ground against the Euro, by and large, I still expect the pound to rise against the Euro. So in terms of the overall dollar picture, I'm sort of the opinion that we're in a bit of a range, and the downside should remain limited. I'll only revise that opinion if we drop significantly below the lows that we've seen over the course of the past few months. So moving on quickly to gold, because we need to do that, gold prices. Now we've seen a significant move higher in gold, and a large part of that has been because of the softening in US yields. If I cast your mind back to that yield chart, that US 10-year yield chart, US 10-year yields were at the top end of their recent range a month ago, when gold was on its lows. There is an inverse correlation between the two. Weakier yields, higher gold, stronger yields, weaker gold. So at the moment, gold is at towards the top end of its recent range, and could well find it a little bit difficult to get through this area of resistance through here, because that roughly equates to around about 1.5% on the US 10-year. So if you get a sell-off in bond markets, US yields will go higher, and as a result, gold should find a little bit of a lid. At the moment, gold is looking a little bit overbought, but that's not to say that we can't come back all the way to 1835-1836. But I would suggest that these sorts of levels, gold is looking a little bit toppy. Brent Crude. Similar sort of story here. It's starting to roll over a little bit. It's important to remember, and those of you who've been regular listeners to my webinars will know that there's a big, big top at $72.50 on Brent. And that's where we ran out of steam in March two months ago, coincides with the peaks that we saw in 2020. There's a huge level at these sorts of levels, and OPEC Plus will be reluctant for prices to go much above where they are now. Now, next week, we've got a CPI number out of the US, and all this talk about inflation obviously is raising concerns that we're in a little bit, we're underestimating the effect that higher prices could have on central bank's reaction function when it comes to higher prices. We're certainly seeing higher prices in terms of prices paid data, producer prices. We're seeing some pass-through effects in terms of companies passing through these higher costs in the form of higher prices. And it's the ability of the consumer to absorb these higher prices that will be key. At the moment, there's no evidence of wage inflation. So, while there's no evidence of wage inflation, I don't think central bankers will be too concerned about that. And if there isn't wage inflation, then OPEC Plus will be reluctant to allow oil prices to rip much higher, because if prices go much higher, that will mean less disposable income, and then you will get demand destruction. OPEC Plus have relaxed their production caps. They will be releasing more oil into the market as US driving season gets underway over the course of May and June, and that should keep a lid on prices. But we are still very much in a range trade. We've broken above these peaks here, but it is important to understand that we haven't taken out these highs here, and we are starting to drift off a little bit. And also, you've got to take into account base effects when you look at inflation numbers right now. A year ago, crude oil prices bottomed out at around about $15 a barrel for Brent. Now, they're around about $65. So, that is going to be reflected in the higher CPI rates that we're going to get over the course of the next two months. You've got to look back at where oil prices were a year ago and where they are now. We call that base effects. They crashed off, became much lower. So, there was a deflationary bias a year ago. There's an inflationary bias this year ago, this time now. We need that to wash out, and that's what they mean when they say these effects are transitory, because a year ago prices were through the floor. Now, they're quite high. That's base effects. We need that to wash out if the inflation is still high three or four months from now, central banks will start to become more worried about higher levels of inflationary pressure. So, in the short term, while CPI next week could well come in at 3.6 or 3.8 percent, whereas it was at 1.4 percent at the beginning of the year, the expectation is that that number will come back down again as those base effects wash out. So, when economists talk about base effects, that's what they mean. They talk about where it was a year ago when the pandemic and the lockdowns first hit and where it is now. So, we need that to sort of average out a little bit to get an idea of where we are going forward. So, anyway, one million jobs is what we're expecting. We're expecting the unemployment rate to fall back to 5.8 percent, but more importantly, and those of you who read my morning notes, I'll be paying close attention to the participation rate because the participation rate will tell you how many people are actually in the workforce looking for work. A year ago, 63.4 percent of the US population was looking for work. Now, it's 61.5 percent. So, 2 percent of that workforce a year ago are no longer looking for work. We want that to change. The Fed wants that to change. They want that number to start moving back up to the levels it was a year ago before they'll even consider raising rates or cutting back on monetary policy stimulus. So, if we just look at the reaction function here, get rid of these lines. This should give us an indication, knee-jerk reaction of where we go to here, but I don't expect Euro dollar, whatever the numbers are, to drop much below the lows that we've seen over here. So, to recap, not expecting this number to really drive the move higher or lower, I think equity markets will continue to move higher. The S&P, the NASDAQ, and what have you, will still continue to trend higher. It's very much a buy-dips market, but a disappointment in the number could actually see a weaker dollar in the short term. If we meet expectations, we'll just basically trade in the range that we're currently in. Anyway, what I'm going to do now is be quiet for a minute and allow myself time to absorb the numbers. So, that was the kind of numbers you just saw there. Goodness gracious me. That is not a good number. That is a horrendous number. 266. So, that's obviously dollar negative, and that's why Euro dollars shot up. I mean, that's a huge miss. And the revision lower as well. I mean, that is incredible. 266. Okay, let me just absorb that. So, obviously, that's a dollar weaker number. That's a huge miss. And certainly the revision lower is also disappointing, exceedingly disappointing. Let's look at the participation rate. I'm actually really shocked at that number. So, let's have a look at what the overall participation rate is for the US. That's actually gone up. So, the participation rate's gone up to 61.7. The headline number is 266. I've really got to double check that again. And the unemployment rate has gone up to 6.1. Well, you know, I'm amazed. I'm utterly amazed by that. The big question is whether or not that is sustainable. So, we're probably going to get Euro dollar back towards 121.5 year. That's a big, big level there. And looking at that number there, looking at yields, that's going to see yields tank and probably gold prices move higher. Let's just look at this here. And yep, sure enough, that's exactly what it's done. And that basically is a classic example of the market becoming complacent about the specific payrolls number. We've seen weekly jobless claims decline week on week, which again has raised expectations of a positive payrolls number. The fact of the matter is while this is surprisingly disappointing, what it doesn't do is change the overall narrative of an improving US labor market. Yes, it's disappointing and we're going to see a weaker dollar as a result of it, but I don't think it's going to change the longer term outlook vis-a-vis the US economy. So, certainly in terms of what we're going to see now, we're going to see a weaker dollar. We're going to see gold move higher. We're going to see Euro dollar move back towards 1.21.5, potentially even 1.22. But what it won't do is change the overall narrative of a strengthening US economy. It just slows it down. So it seems to me that the markets have got slightly ahead of their skis in terms of their expectations for the labor market. And as a result, we're going to see a little bit of weakness in equity markets overall. We're certainly seeing that in terms of the FTSE 100, but it doesn't change the overall narrative in terms of the direction of travel for stock markets. So we're looking at gold. So as I say, it's likely with the likes to find a little bit of selling pressure as we approach the 200 day moving average, probably see selling pressure in Euro around about the previous peaks over at 1.21.5. And in terms of the S&P 500, we're actually still looking to retest the record highs that we saw over the course at the end of April. So it's barely registered on the S&P. The FTSE 100 is giving up some of its gains that we've seen largely on the back of probably a stronger pound than the weaker dollar, which is hurting it nonetheless. But even if we fall back to this sort of level here, if we look at the 70-40 level on the UK FTSE 100, I'm still very much a bar on the dips on that now that we've broken above 70-40. And we can see why 70-40 is such an important level. If we go back all the way back to 2019, we can see that on the basis of support and resistance, it's a very, very key level. So I haven't changed my mind in the same way that a bumper jobs report in March is not going to change the narrative. Neither is a poor jobs report in April. But what it does do is it makes us think twice about the direction of travel when it comes to the health of the labour market. Because what we've seen from this jobs report is probably going to make me have to think an awful lot longer and harder about how quickly these jobs start to get replaced from what we saw a year ago. So we're getting a little bit of a pullback in the FTSE 100. I'm not overly concerned by that. I'd use that as a dip buying opportunity. If we look at the NASDAQ 100, that's probably likely to take a move higher on the back of that because Big Tech has been acting with a significant safe haven bias over the course of the past few days. But also 50-day moving average is looking to be a fairly decent support level if we look at this market here. So we broke below earlier this week, a little bit of stop loss selling, found support with the 50-day moving average. And now the likelihood is we are going to push higher. So a poor jobs report certainly is not the negative for equity markets as people would have you think. It's not by any stretch of the imagination. Similar sort of thing with it when it comes to the DAX, look to buy dips on any equity market here. We can see this break of support here, short lived, the dip buyers are coming back. And as a result, as a result, we're seeing another pullback and a potential for a retest of the record highs that we saw back in April. NASDAQ exploding, as you would expect it to do so. We may see a little bit of a pullback. Be very careful about getting too carried away about running positions into the weekend. Always have to warn people about getting overexuberant in terms of the numbers when it comes to heading into a weekend. You don't really want to be running a position into the weekend simply because of what might happen with respect to politicians saying stupid stuff. I think there's always a risk that you can end up wearing a position over a weekend. It may be the right position, but what you don't want to do is be gapped out or stopped out on any overall positions. I've become, as I've got older, a lot more risk averse when it comes to running positions over the weekend. The risk reward just isn't there. There's too much headline risk involved in running over the weekend positions, but everyone has a different risk tolerance. If you're happy doing that, then it's quite happy to do it. But overall, while those numbers are disappointing, they don't change the overall narrative when it comes to the direction of travel and the US recovery. Okay, so Bitcoin. Well, at the moment with Bitcoin, I mean, this is a chart and a half, isn't it? I mean, it's very difficult with Bitcoin to try and do any meaningful technical analysis on it. But I'm going to try. So what we've got here is, apart from a brief dip below $50,000, it does appear to be fairly well supported there. And now we've got a gap here, which the market has filled, but it struggled to get above. And that for me is significant. Gaps generally tend to get filled. And if we look at this level here, there is certainly decent area of resistance through $59,406. Well, let's call it $59,500 if I can get my words out. So basically, if I run my cursor over this level here, there is a big gap between $60,000 and $59,500. And that's not really surprising when you consider that the spread on Bitcoin, as you can see, there is 80 pips. Now, it's quite wide. So unless you've got deep pockets for Bitcoin at the moment, if we're to see a test of new highs, we need to clear this gap resistance because gaps can act as a bit of a selling window. And until such times as we get back above, or move back above that gap resistance, then the upside of Bitcoin is likely to be a little bit limited. What we have seen is Ethereum post new record highs. And that isn't showing any signs of running out of steam. If we look at Ethereum here, we've got a gap higher. So we could conceivably get a little bit of gap support on any pullbacks on Ether. And if we put the gap there, it's between $2,800 and $2,900. So there should be gaps for an Ether on any pullback on that crypto. So at the moment, Ether is looking fairly solid in terms of buying interest, whereas Bitcoin is looking a little bit toppy. So you really pay your money and you take your choice, I guess, when it comes to where you hang your Bitcoin Ether hat or your crypto hat. Now, another way of gaining exposure to crypto, if you don't want to put all your eggs in one crypto basket, is maybe to try and put your money in a crypto basket. We've got three crypto indexes. We've got a major crypto index, which basically is Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are the major components. And to a lesser extent, some of the smaller coins, or you've got emerging crypto, or you've got all crypto. But there are a whole host of different crypto currencies that you can keep an eye on. And it's notable here that the biggest gains that we're seeing thus far today are in some of the smaller coins like Litecoin, or Monero, or Neo, or Stellalumans, which are giving much bigger percentage gains. But of course, that comes with a little bit of a caveat in that sometimes the spreads can be a little bit wider. Nonetheless, you've got Stellalumans, which is at record highs. So again, there's likely to be a little bit of selling interest around there. When I'm looking at a particular market, I'm very interested in the highs and the lows and what they're doing. And generally, previous highs are previous lows, tend to act as resistance and support. And when they break, they then reverse their roles. So it's very important in the overall scheme of things is to look at the relationship between highs and lows when you're making trading decisions. So in terms of the FTSE 100, very much a case of buy the dips when it comes to looking at that particular index. And certainly that 70-40-50 level is likely to be a decent area of support if we dip back towards it. The Dow is looking a little bit soft at the moment. It's coming back off its all-time highs. But nonetheless, that has been outperforming in recent days, unlike the S&P in the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000, which has been underperforming. But again, look at this index here, very much in an uptrend. And first rule of technical analysis is the trend is your friend. And at the moment, we can see that there's still fairly decent demand. Looking at this candle here, that long tail suggests to me that there's no appetite to really push the Dow much below this series of lows through here. You've got one, two, three, four, five, six lows all the way through this particular index here. So that's important. It reinforces where the areas of support are for the Dow. If we look at the small cap, which is more representative of probably the US economy, that was pretty much traded sideways over the course of the past three months. It hasn't gone above its previous record highs, but nonetheless, the dips are getting shallower. So the direction of travel is still positive. It's just an awful lot choppier. Unfortunately, this is what makes these markets so much more difficult to trade, but also using very good consistent rules when it comes to technical analysis, you can at least take some of the chance out of the way these markets move. So once again, the NASDAQ seems on course to retest these peaks above 14,000 that we saw earlier in April. Okay, so quick question. Ibex 35, I'm being asked. Why are small caps underperforming lately? I mean, I think that's the big unknown at the moment. I think the reason they're underperforming is simply because investors prefer big cap stocks. It's safety in blue chips, no more, no less. And I think that's why smaller caps are underperforming. But Alan, the FTSE 250 is outperforming the FTSE 100. So it's not necessarily true. If you look at the FTSE 250, it has significantly outperformed the FTSE 100. The FTSE 250 is near record highs. The reason the FTSE 100 is underperformed is largely because of the fact that it has a whole host of retail and travel stocks in it. And that is causing it to underperform relative to the bigger caps. You look at the companies that reported this morning, British Airways, IAG, you've got IHG, Intercontinental Hotels Group, which own Holiday Inn. I mean, the travel and leisure sector has underperformed significantly and is underperformed in terms of the bounce back because restrictions for international travel are likely to be the last, that are least. They're going to be the last to bounce back. Hotels are doing slightly better on a localized basis. If you look at IHG, China region has bounced back. It's 37% below 2019 levels in terms of revenue per room. IAG, domestic travel, is not a particularly big component of IAG's revenue base. We're in the same way that it is for, say, EasyJet or Ryanair. They rely that much more on international travel. Now, international travel will be the last to get up and running. Transatlantic travel corridors could be a positive for that. The US, UK, transatlantic routes, if a travel corridor is opened up there between, you know, for vaccinated people, that could be a little bit of a lifesaver for IAG. And you could see their shares move higher as a consequence of that. But certainly airlines and overseas travel are likely to be the last sectors to play catch-up as we look ahead to the reopening trade. Much more domestically focused stocks, like, for example, like Whitbread, who own Premier Inn, are likely to do better. Though in the city centers, those Premier Inns are likely to underperform relative to, say, for example, the seaside resorts for Premier Inns, which are likely to outperform. So basket trading of crypto could be a better way to go, but it depends on your appetite for risk. Stick with what you're comfortable with. It would be my advice to anyone looking to trade anything new. And just get used to the idea of trading the levels that you're used to. And above all else, keep your profits, run your profits and cut your losses. Okay, so hopefully that answers your question about underperforming small caps. Generally, in markets such as these, investors generally prefer the safety of big caps as opposed to small caps. That's not to say that small caps won't do well, but you may have to be slightly more patient. What do I think can be the trigger for an equity market pullback if any? That's a good question. Well, we did see a pullback earlier this week, and it was very short lived. And I think something like that could be the catalyst for a pullback. But ultimately, while central banks remain committed to easy monetary policy, and while you've got a US administration talking about further fiscal stimulus, it's very hard to see where that black swan event could come from. And that's the problem I have. I am uncomfortable with some of the valuations that we're seeing at current levels. And certainly, I think you have to look in certain pockets for sort of a significant pullback. So for example, next week, we've got Airbnb's latest earnings numbers. I've talked about that in my weekly video, which you can see, it gets posted live on the CMC website at 4pm today. But again, you can also see it on the YouTube channel at youtube.com for CMC Markets PLC. Airbnb has a market capitalization of $94 billion. It's overall revenues in 2019 were four, it's annual revenues were $4.8 billion. Now, with the best will in the world, their expectation is for a return to 2019 annual revenues sometime later this year, maybe early next year. Now, Airbnb's $94 billion valuation is nearly double Marriott. It's a market cap Marriott, which is an international hotel chain, which has got a suite of hotels all over the world and well above IHG, which also has a global hotel chains. Now, you can argue that Airbnb doesn't have the real estate cost that Marriott and IHG do, but they don't have any assets whatsoever to speak of. So what justifies that $94 billion valuation? Nothing. And at the moment, if you look at an Airbnb chart, for example, which I will do when I'm looking at the IPOs that we've seen over the course of the past few days launched. For me, there is zero justification for that sort of valuation. Nonetheless, we've come down quite a lot from the $220 highs there, and we're now around about $153. But nonetheless, it's still an eye-wateringly high valuation. And then we look at, say, for example, something like what we saw yesterday with the Honest Company, Jessica Alba's new renewables. Obviously, that's only two candles there because it's only been trading for two days. But there we go. That's started to drift lower as well. And then you've got companies like Vroom who are also reporting next week. And then you've got Disney. Now, Disney's an interesting company because, for me, with the reopening of the theme parks, Disney should actually start to see its revenues improve as people start to go back to open-air activities. And they could actually reap the benefits of that. They've done well from streaming. But if we look at Disney chart, say, for example, in this one here, I've drawn a nice little line on this chart. So if Disney surprises to the upside, this uptrend that we've seen over the course of the past few weeks or so could actually continue. And actually, that trend line is rubbish because it's not even anchored to a particular point. So let me just redraw that. Get rid of that. Delete and redraw it. It's very important that any lines that you draw are accurate. There's decent support around about 180. We've bottomed there for two or three days in a row. So it might be worth sticking a line in through there. There we go. So are we hitting a short-term top in Disney? It's hard to say. I will certainly be interested to dig into the details of today's payrolls report to see why consensus estimates were so wide of the mark. It's certainly going to make for an interesting read and whether or not we'll get a very big rebound in the main numbers given the very decent employment components that we've seen in the ISM reports this week for May, April and May. I'd like to know where those missing jobs have gone. So hopefully I'll have a look at that in the wake of this webinar and hopefully try and put a little bit of colour onto why today's payrolls missed so much. Right, thoughts on copper? I did indicate, yeah, I talked about a major top, but we've blown through that now. So really, once we've blown through the top in copper, all bets are off. If we go back in this chart here to where we were back in 2011, we're way through that now. So really, it's a question of where do we go to next? And for me, the next target for copper is around about five dollars or so. That's really the key level for copper going forward. You know, that's a significant line in the sand really for me, I think. That's the next round number target for copper prices going forward now that we've broken above the previous highs. So I did say something about the crude oil. Yeah, I mean, I talked about the fact that there's a significant top at around about $72.50 which just to recap for you is this chart here. There we go. So if we extend that line, hopefully we can extend that line backwards. No, we can't. But if we go back to that peak there and that peak there, there is a significant barrier in and around $72.50 because that's the peaks from last year. This is a one-day one-year chart for crude oil. And not surprisingly on the back of those numbers, crude oil prices are dipping back from the highs that we saw earlier in the week. Is there anything else that you want me to look at? Canada figures also not great. Okay, let's look at Canada yen. Right, I'm looking at Canada yen. Really depends on where we finish today, Brian. The moment we put a nice little top in around about $90, it looks like we could see a little bit of a reversal. I think the big level for me on this is this peak here. If we break below the lows of Thursday, then you could see the beginnings of a bit of a reversal forming on the Canada yen chart. And that could start to see a little bit of a drift lower, particularly given the fact that we've seen a little bit of disappointment around that payroll's number for Canada. Nikkei being asked, okay, just quickly. We're still in the range for Nikkei at the moment. This triangular consolidation I've been talking about. We're still within that. So, yes, still range bound on the Nikkei. In answer to your question, Jeff, I think just continue to play that range. You've got fairly decent support in and around these lows here, fairly decent resistance in and around these sorts of peaks here. So still very much a range trade on the Nikkei. Okay, let me just quickly scroll up on various questions to make sure I haven't missed anybody. I don't want to miss anybody. What's happening with dollar CAD? I knew there'd be a question on that. I'm sorry, I almost missed it. Here we go. Right. The interesting thing about this chart is that we haven't really made new lows. And you'd think on a dreadful report like that, you would expect that the Canada would weaken a lot further than it has. The problem is you've seen, I think you've seen two less than impressive reports, shall we say, we've seen a disappointing Canada report, which missed expectations, and you've seen a disappointing US report. So for me in dollar CAD, I'm probably still more inclined to buy dollar CAD than sell it on the basis of those numbers, simply on the basis of the fact that we're at the very bottom end, or top end, depending on which way you want to describe it, of these numbers. So if I was to look at take a posse on dollar CAD and I'm not, but I certainly wouldn't want to be short dollars long CAD at these sorts of levels, just on the basis of risk reward, look at where we've come from, and look at where we are now. So for me, I would expect to see a little bit of a rebound over the course of the next few days, simply on the basis that again, we don't want to place too much emphasis on one particular set of numbers. So hopefully that answers your question, Steve. I don't expect too much of a directional change on dollar CAD, but if you were to force me into a position on it, I probably would probably be more more inclined to be long dollars short CAD than the other way around. Okay, let's have a quick look at sterling yen. Wow, that's a bit of a bit of a number. Sterling sterling yen. There we go. Let's get rid of that. Well, the bias on that still remains very much by the dips on sterling yen. Let's draw some lines on this and firm up the analysis. I mean, again, the bias for that remains for a move probably more to the upside than the downside, but we are finding a little bit of resistance through these peaks through here. So at the moment, I'm not inclined to do anything. If I'm long sterling yen, I'm probably inclined to take profit on it, look for a move back down here, and then for a move back higher again. By and large, I'm very much by the dip on sterling yen pretty much across the board when it comes to the pound. That's the way I play it because I still expect the pound to head through 140 over the course of the next few weeks and months. And for that, really take the cues from the cable chart here. If we can move through 140-20, then that should be fairly, that should be sterling positive. But at the moment, while that caps, we've got to be very, very careful about being overly aggressive on the sterling front. But certainly the bias favors a move for a firmer pound. Okay, right. I think I'm going to have to call it a day now, ladies and gentlemen. It's two o'clock and I've already run over by 15 minutes. But as I say, I do do a weekly video. So if there's anything that you want me to cover in the weekly video, just drop me an email or tweet me or whatever, and I will try and cover it for you. Otherwise, I'd like to thank you all for listening again. And I'll hopefully you will join me same time, same place a month from now when I cover the May payrolls numbers. In the meantime, I'd like to thank you all for tuning in. I wish you all a very pleasant weekend and see you same time, same place a month from now. Thanks for listening and have a great weekend.