 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We probably haven't done enough on this show to talk about same game parlays throughout this year because same game parlays are objectively a Pretty fun way to play things from a betting perspective and they seem to be pretty popular with all of you out there So I want to do a better job next year focusing in on some of these and trying to identify Spots I think are good values. There are a lot of bad same game parlays out there We want to avoid those as being hopefully smart batters today I'm gonna dive in to Super Bowl 58 and outline what I think are some potentially good same game parlays for this game Not just from a I think this like from a matchup perspective But also from a process perspective outline the thought process I want to put into SGP before I place them in Some angles you can take and things like that when you are trying to to bet same game parlays this week whether beef You got a notice what same game probably offer whatever it may be Trying to find good angles to get some good bets out there for this game But then also go through the thought process so you can hopefully apply that to next year as well Welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to dig in the same game parlays are on Super Bowl 58 Fandall sportsbook and let you know which one said it to me based on my thought process and angles I like and overall thoughts on this game We'll dive into all that here in just one second but first a reminder We already have a couple of shows up for this week on the Fandall podcast network to get you ready for Super Bowl 58 We had Dr. Ed Fing with us on Monday breaking out his thoughts on What his numbers say about this game where he sees value for this week and much more talking some props as well And of course Joe Straski joined us as well on Tuesday breaking down his thoughts on this game Joe has a very fun mind. It was fun to pick his brain on all the weird props that I don't know anything about so Check out both those in the covering the spread podcast feed and Over on the Fandall YouTube page and over on Fandall TV plus to get those shows and get their thoughts on this game Coming up later on this week We're gonna have Ryan Williams and Tom Vecchia with us on Thursday breaking down their thoughts on Player props this game back won't be up until late Thursday night. So we're gonna court Thursday night for that one So if you're looking for a podcast in your feed Thursday during the day wait till that night and then on Friday We're talking live betting with Ed Miller as well all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed If you like what you hear make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and again Check us out of Fandall TV plus and the Fandall YouTube page Happy Super Bowl to all those who celebrate from Fandall America's number one sports book If you're like me Super Bowl Sunday is all about scoring the best eat on the couch Grabbing your favorite football snacks and placing some super bets Fandall has so many ways to end the season with a W or two or three Not only can you bet on who will win Super Bowl 58 But Fandall also has bets for which players will score a touchdown How many points will be scored and so much more new customers join today? 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Now before we dig in here. Do you want to give a quick disclaimer? I'm recording this on earlier in the week as a result of the fact that I am off on Wednesday, so Hopefully things are pretty stagnant from an odds perspective and things have not shifted But do you want to give that disclaimer of I'm recording this earlier in the week? So hopefully the lines have not moved so too much But overall let's dig into same game parlays and the thought process here and with saying game parlays As you know if you're a season sports better you need all legs to hit in order for the bet to pay out This is a downside because it does mean you're betting into a lot of separate markets And all those markets have a whole the time attached to them But it also does work to our advantage Every time you put a leg into a same game parlay you have to make the assumption that bet hits Otherwise the rest does not matter so if this bet doesn't hit the other ones don't matter You can lose every leg you can lose one doesn't matter results of the same This allows you to narrow down the scope of possibilities if I assume that bet x does hit How does that influence other markets that are out there? Which events are more likely to occur as a result of bet x hitting? Fandal does know which bets correlate so the odds will reflect this for sure But that's still the thought process you need to go into this with Assuming each leg hits and assuming that that happens you want to make sure those bets play well together We can go in with an assumption and use that assumption to build out our plot our parlay an assumption a thesis However, you want to phrase it we can kind of go in there with that angle and decide What markets will be values if that assumption is true? So we target events that are more likely to happen if our assumption is correct And we're gonna go through some options for that for today These are angles I think are viable for this specific game and we'll use those angles to hunt for value on the board I'm gonna start things off with the most boring one and then we'll hopefully make things a bit more exciting from there but the big angle for me entering super 58 is News we got last week that the chiefs activated the practice window for Jerick McKinnon McKinnon is not a lock to play But I would assume he probably will given the activated in last week He had surgery. I think earlier on this month But it sounds like he'll probably be able to go and we know the chiefs like McKinnon and he has a very big effect I say a Pacheco With look at the games that Pacheco played with McKinnon earlier on this year He averaged 77.6 yards from scrimmage per game. So rushing plus receiving without McKinnon It's 109.7 in Pacheco's full games That is a massive difference and the red zone role for Pacheco is very different too So if we assume that McKinnon is going to play That does ding the red zone expectations for Pacheco at a 32 red zone share with McKinnon versus 55 without him Now, I don't think we'll see Pacheco's role change as much here because he's played very very well He was actually increasing his snap rate during that time anyway when They kind of just fade CEH out now. Unfortunately a fangirl sports book right now I don't see any CEH markets up. So I can't just fade Clyde Edwards Elair I can't go that route. But what I can do is to Expect a dip in Pacheco's passing game work I don't think we'll see it from a rushing perspective because again, he's played pretty well But the passing game work could dip I think we'll still see McKinnon be the early down back I think we'll see zero CEH if if McKinnon plays but passing game work for Pacheco could go away And honestly the passing game work in the playoffs hasn't been great Anyway, because McKinnon or Pacheco, I should say has not topped 14 yards in any of the three games So if we assume that McKinnon plays how would that impact other markets in this matchup? The big one is that it'd be Pacheco's passing game work And those markets honestly are pretty high. I think right now over at fangirl sports book The big one is total receptions for Pacheco That's a three and a half right now under his minus 1 to 88 They do assume that under that that that's a big number But I feel pretty good in that mark if we assume McKinnon plays because Pacheco average is 2.9 Targets per game in games with McKinnon earlier on this year and it's a 3.7 in the games without McKinnon So that one seems pretty good to plug in there even at minus 1 88 We can also go towards the yardage because again the yardage hasn't been huge now adding on yardage to a an under and we have the Receptions already in there. That's not going to change things a whole lot So keep that in mind. You're not swaying things a ton by putting in the yardage But hey it does add things a little bit and can't help us there So we can go Pacheco under 16 and a half receiving yards along with the under three and a half on the receptions I do want to reiterate though. I think that Pacheco's rushing game workload should still be pretty good given He's played well the chiefs have been effective running the football and McKinnon not nearly as big of a factor there as he would be in the passing yardage department So I want to take the overaction on Pacheco's rushing yardage because the Niners have struggled against the rush so far this year and If it's a neutralish script, which we should see here Then I think they'll be able to run the ball pretty effectively here So we can take advantage of Pacheco being good running back and Getting less work in the passing game if we assume the McKinnon is back for this game If we pair those three bets together Pacheco under three and a half receptions under 16 and a half receiving yards and over 67 and a half rushing yards that gives us to plus 266 for that same game parlay Not a huge payout by any means But it is still a way to take advantage of the fact that McKinnon is coming back And will likely eat into Pacheco's passing game work, but not eat into his rushing work So to me, I think that's a good bet to take and a good process to go through With the cheese backfield potentially in flux for this Super Bowl 58 So that's the first one we'll go with for today again. It's the most boring one But the process there hopefully kind of Can key into your brain the way we're going to try to see things for these markets in this game The second assumption that I want to make for this game is that Maybe my model is correct and if you heard last week back on Monday during the first lick podcast I mentioned how I liked the Niners the money line there and I liked the over at 47 and a half Now he's seen some movements toward the Niners right now They're now back out to two and a half minus 105 on that and the total is 47 and a half That stayed the same as it was back on Monday So the model still likes these values and if we assume that the Over does hit that increases the odds that the 49ers cover because more points leads to a wider range of potential outcomes and Covering inherently implies there are more points scored in the game Not always the case because you could see negative script at the end Things kind of slowing down if one team is ahead by a lot But the overall thought process of laying points correlates with an over That makes a lot of sense there So let's make let's make that our first assumption that the model is correct on this game And that the Niners cover and the over hits We would then ask ourselves what other bets are more likely to occur Should this wind up happening if the 49ers have a lead It'll mean more drop backs and more passing volume for the cheese Unfortunately, we can't pair Mahomes pass attempts over Because fandral knows those events are are heavily tied. So if you try to tie in the number of pass attempts for Mahomes, they will not let you add that into your parlay. So and firstly, we can't go that way Because it would be pretty easy to just do that Same thing goes for the isaii pacheco under rush attempts And I also don't know if that's really a great bet Anyway, given that I do expect to have a pretty good roll regardless We can though go to the Niners side and use some positive sense and go to christian mccaffrey His rushing yardage prop is 91 and a half right now at fan dual sports book And that's a big number for sure But in 16 full games mccaffrey has gone over 91 and a half 10 times that is a 63 hit rate over 91 and a half And two of the times that mccaffrey went under Were in losses and again We're assuming that the Niners win this game because they're covering two and a half In the 13 wins in that sample mccaffrey Went over 91 and a half rushing yards 69 percent of the time The chiefs are better against the run during the playoffs now than they were during the regular season But I do feel pretty good about this part. So right now. We've got uh Niners minus two and a half over 47 and a half and mccaffrey over 91 and a half The final leg here could be Isaii pacheco under six seven and a half rushing yards if we do that that puts the rods at plus five 88 However, we're not getting a huge boost there by doing this Because fan dual knows that the Niners covering minus two and a half Decreases the odds pacheco gets 67 and a half. So again plus five 88 is the number we go with pacheco under 67 and a half rushing yards Let's take a different approach to this The other implication of the Niners covering is more drop backs for patrick mahomes Drop backs can lead to pass attempts But they can also lead to scrambles because mahomes is not a guy Who gets a lot of design rushing attempts? He does scramble and scrambles occur when there are drop backs drop backs more likely when a team is trailing So weirdly even though it's a positive prop on a team. We're expecting to lose here It is going to correlate better With a chief's loss and with a chief's win. So instead of going with the pacheco under rushing yards Let's go with mahomes over 20 to five and a half rushing yards. If we do that here. We see this number get to plus 778 For the same game parlay I think that is a better approach to this one and a much better payout than when we had with the pacheco under because It's less obvious that these bets are correlated with the mahomes over and the Niners covering in this game so to me, I think that's the best way to play this thing and It plays well. There are other bets Works from an assumption with mahomes running more during the playoffs and running more in the negative script And it's not as obviously correlated with our other bets as a pacheco under would be So our four lags here are the Niners minus two and a half the over at 47 and a half Christian mccaffrey over 90 and a half rushing yards and mahomes over 25 and a half rushing yards That is plus 778 a fan dual sportsbook. I think that is a logical parlay Under the assumption again that the model has things correctly pinned here, which may be an arrogant assumption potentially, but I trust my model. It's back tested pretty well. So I'm fine Taking this approach to betting this game at plus 778 for those four legs The final assumption I want to talk through here is one about usage during the playoffs for these two teams and specifically focusing on the concentrated usages of these two passing games We've seen that with the Niners always when their guys are healthy. They funnel work to their studs in big games We know that part But the chiefs have done it during the playoffs as well If we look at three playoff games travis kelsey and rachie rice both have target shares above 27 percent Nobody else is in double digits. Now. That's not a huge surprise But they've also stopped rotating the other guys the super secondary guys in this team Mark was now this family actually led the chiefs and routes run during the conference championship His target share of the playoffs is still just nine percent, but he's coming out ahead of jesson watson michael harbin's out of play I don't think kateria's tony's in a player because he's he's arguing with them and stuff like that Not a lot of ritchie james. Uh watson's target share is six percent. So We're going to start with the mbs of things. He is a very volatile wide receiver because A lot of downfield targets doesn't haul all the mid as we've seen plenty of times throughout the past couple years So I want to take advantage of that volatility I want to benefit from it now the baseline yardage for mvs is 19 and a half receiving yards I've no interest in that because he could get zero catches and that would not shock me at all But the all market to get 40 plus yards for mvs is currently at plus 230 In the two playoff games the past two playoff games for mvs He's a 62 and 38 yards and I want to focus on those two because that's since michael harbin effectively got shuffled out of the rotation Now that's only 50 percent uh times going over 40 receiving yards But this matchup of the niners is one that favors outside wide receivers because of how good The niners are up the middle fred warner. I always say is a black hole and if funnels work towards the outside So I'm okay taking mvs to get 40 plus receiving yards given the amount of downfield work the number of routes he's running And the way he gets the targets that he does her As for watson than that six percent target share I think that bodes well for a receptions under versus going with uh, the yardage because watson does still get downfield work If you told me right now that that justin watson catches a 50 yard touchdown on sunday I'm not gonna blink twice that that could totally happen But under one and a half receptions is minus 134 Watson has had two receptions in one out of three playoff games. So That's not going to bother me too much and again ran up about two thirds of the routes that mvs ran should be less than that Less than two thirds the routes that mvs ran during the conference championship. So we'll take watson under one and a half receptions That's the chief side But we can also loop in the niners here because they do the exact same thing We were talking about before where they funnel work to their studs in big games Juwan Jennings is a good player. We've seen that a lot, especially these past two games He just doesn't get a lot of work when all these guys are healthy They've had 10 games with everybody healthy and in those 10 games Jennings is exactly 10 receptions So one per game now caveat is that Jennings played in just nine of those so But in those nine games Juwan Jennings had multiple receptions just three times three out of nine That means we can build around this tight core assumption And loop in Juwan Jennings as well under one and a half receptions for him is minus 140 right now at vandals sports book we can pair that with the watson under and kind of build this into They ride the studs in the big game So when we loop in the Juwan Jennings under with the mvs all over and the watson under Receptions we get to plus 739 As the same game parlay here. We do get upside the mvs's yardage the alt market But the other ones are just assuming the rules stay the same as they've been In these high leverage moments when everyone is healthy It's not a huge leap by any means, but there is a decent payout tied to it So we'll take that one at plus 739 for mvs to get 40 plus receiving yards Get Juwan Jennings under one and a half receptions and get Justin Watson under one and a half receptions as well You could put in their yardage numbers there, but given how The way those guys are used and how efficient the Niners offense is I'd rather shy away from yardage unders for watson and Jennings because I could see them getting to some yardage over It's even if they do get just the one reception here So again, that's kind of my thought process here with playing same game parlay This is simple is trying to find bets that play well together going in with an assumption and asking myself Which bets work well if those assumptions do wind up being true? So again that one was mvs 40 plus receiving yards Watson under one half receptions and Jennings under one half receptions that was plus 739 We had pacheco over six seven and a half rushing yards pacheco under three and a half receptions pacheco Under 16 and a half receiving yards and then the other one was the Niners minus two and a half the total over 47 and a half Christian mccaffrey over 90 and a half rushing yards and patrick mahomes over 25 and a half rushing yards as well That's all we got here for today on covering the spread as mentioned though this podcast heat is loaded with Super Bowl 58 talk both in the past with Dr I'd fang and joe stratski in the future with Ryan williams tom becky oh tomorrow night on thursday and of course the live betting preview on friday With ed miller as well all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed and Fandall tv plus and the fandall youtube page If you got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and check out fandall research on twitter at fandall research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you if you're building that sgp's for Super Bowl 58 We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to give our full player prop breakdown of this game This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network