 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. Again, I want to congratulate you. If you're actually watching this, that means you survived Thanksgiving. Good for you, man. That's great. It's a blessing. I just destroyed my body, treated it like a roller coaster ride, and it actually had a lot to do. I blame this on Thanksgiving tongue in cheek to kind of having a crappy day on Friday. Usually I don't start off the update because the market has been so good and so aggressive. When you have a shortened holiday session, especially with the biggest travel time of the year, people are traveling to Thanksgiving, it kind of spills over into the action you're going to have. Friday was a direct correlation of understanding when to trade and when not to trade. If you look at the Twitter feed, this was it. There was nothing else to it. This was it. This is actually some of the areas of the nightly update for this weekend. But this was it. There was nothing going on. And if you look at the pivots that we had, and there's a reason why I'm talking about this right from the word go. If you look at the pivots from Friday session, number one, you can tell how slow the day setup was going to be. And we're not talking about MYOV. I don't want to talk about MYOV. We talked about this thing pre-market, MYOV. If it starts building above 18, it can go. And here was 18 on MYOV. Here was the 18 on MYOV exploded to 1940. I didn't take that trade, right? I didn't take that trade. We're not going to talk about 202 on Facebook. Again, you can see there's only a handful of names for Friday session. 202 on Facebook. If it builds above, it can go, right? Facebook is very, very important at 202. So here's the whole sneaky area. Again, if all you guys who've been watching the workshops repeatedly understand the difference between what a breakout is and what a sneaky area of aggression is. And here's the 202 area. 202 area, this whole channel, it broke and exploded. It went to almost 204. I didn't take that trade. So what are we talking about here? Let's talk about this real quick. In certain cultures, for example, in our culture, if you steal something, depending on the value of the item that you steal, you're either going to pay some sort of fine. And if you are very, very stupid and you actually steal something very, very expensive, you'll probably do some jail time. Right? It's called theft. Okay. I fail with the dollar number is was a $500 at the consul, consider grand theft, whatever it is. I don't know. I'm not an expert in going to jail and stealing stuff. But you kind of get the point. In other cultures, okay, if you steal something, okay, there is an actual evidence that some of these cultures will chop off your hands in public. We'll literally chop off your hands for stealing something. Again, that's the ramifications for breaking rules. That's the ramifications for disobeying the law. That is your reality. And then there's some cultures and these are very, very extreme cultures that if you steal something, okay, and you break the rules and you break the law, you will die. Okay. They will kill you. They will absolutely die. So there's a tier of craziness in the world of what the ramifications are if you steal something. Okay. In trading, there is a heavy penalty in stealing your entries. Okay. So I don't want to talk about this pivot that worked because number one, it wasn't even in it. I don't want to take this pit talk about this pivot that worked because I don't want to in it. I want to talk about this. Okay. I want to talk about this. So number one, let's talk about what was going into Friday's session. We knew that Friday was a half session. Okay. We knew that there was going to be no volume, okay, no volume because people are still recovering from Thanksgiving and people starting their Christmas shopping, whatever the case may be. We knew that. We knew pre-market based on just this, right? There's nothing else to it, right? Just this. We knew there was no value. Okay. When you're talking about a day that has no value, I always talk about this in any market. Okay. You don't need to trade every single day. You don't need to trade every single week. You don't need to trade. Okay. You want to trade, you don't need to trade. You want to trade, you don't have to trade. Again, when I say this to nausea, especially to new traders, we trade because we get value, not because the market's open. So what I did, okay, and I usually don't do this. Okay. I usually don't do this. I'm incredibly disciplined. And what I try to do, I try to steal in the entry. Okay. I try to steal an entry on Tesla. And the most important part is when you are entering the trade, you have to be perfect. Okay. It's like, it's like when you go to school and you get a B plus and your parents are like, oh, okay, you did a great job. Maybe next time you'll get an A. In trading, you need to have that A plus entry. If not, you're going to fail. It's all or none. It's hit and miss. There's no such things as maybe it's going to happen. We're not hoping. We're not wishing. We're not, you know, we're not, you know, hoping and praying to God that it's going to work. The point of discipline, okay, the point of trading is to be as perfect as possible. No trader's going to be perfect. Okay. No trader's going to be perfect. We have our humanity blame for it. We're flawed as human beings. Okay. So it's going to spill over into our trading. Usually I'm incredibly disciplined and I'm Friday knowing that it's a shortened session. There is no value. There is no volume. There's nothing for me that I need to do. And not only that I entered this trade wrong. Okay. I knew I was entering this trade wrong. And I did something that if you do and you continue to do, you're going to lose and you're going to lose incredibly aggressively. And I try to forecast where the stock was going to go instead of waiting for that proper confirmation. Again, that proper confirmation could have came on Friday. Okay. That confirmation could have came sometimes this week. Or that confirmation could have never come at all. But my point is what I did, taking all the elements that were right in front of me, especially waking up in a massive food coma. Okay. I did the ultimate sin. I tried to steal a trade. And when you look at the ranges on Tesla, okay, if you look at the ranges on Tesla, we'll talk about, again, we don't talk about the trades that work. We don't care about the trades that work. The trades, no matter how you trade, no matter what your process is, if you're trading for a long time, you expect to make money. Okay. That's obviously not the case. Obviously every trade, but you have that confidence. I don't care. Again, I don't care what type of trader you are. You've been trading for a very, very long time. Our confidence is direct correlation of our process. If you trade options, you're not putting on a trade saying, well, I hope I make money. You know you're going to make money in the trade. Obviously that's not the case. Again, we're not talking about fantasy world. We're talking about the reality, but I've never met a trader that has been doing this for 10, 15, 20 years that doesn't feel like they could walk on water and they don't feel like every single trading they're going to make money. Again, that's not the case. We all know that, but that is the mental capacity that we're all trading in. So when we looked at Tesla, when we absolutely looked at Tesla, I knew the ranges. I knew the ranges. I knew the bias. If you look at the daily chart on Tesla, it's now ever since that whole event that came out, it's now sitting three, four days in a row below the five-day moving average. So I was gathering information, totally gathering information. Again, we talked about this every some week. You need to have an opinion. You need to gather information. And again, the key is wait. Wait, damn it. Wait, you freaking idiot. Wait for the confirmation to hit. And you could tell it's bothering me because I've been thinking about this now for two days. And the more I thought about it, since this is Friday, today is Sunday almost 10 o'clock in the morning, Easter. So this has bothered me for two days. And again, I'm not going to vent to my wife. She doesn't care. And it wasn't the end of the world, but again, it shows you how fragile we are. And if you mess up for one little second, if you over-cross boundaries that you know for a fact you should never cross, you're going to die. Excuse my French, but you're going to die. And this was kind of eating at me for two days in a row, eating me in two days in a row because again, I didn't let it play out technically. I forecasted the trade. So again, here was my thought process. So it got rejected at the five-day. Again, the five-day moving average is the shortest area of sentiment. Got rejected. Got rejected. Got rejected. Got rejected. So I'm looking at this channel and saying to myself, okay, if it wants to rally and start reclaiming positive sentiment, it's going to need to get above this 335 area. That will literally break the last three days of trading. And again, we'll get a big move from 335, maybe a 338, start crawling back to the 342 area. And if it starts building below, right, again, two basic channels, 335 to the upside, 327 to the downside, why was 327? Because again, that was the low breaking all technical damage several days ago. So I said, if this thing breaks below that 327 level, it should start its next leg down. So that was my, that was my gathering information. Okay. And I started seeing weakness in Tesla as the market was spiking up a little bit and it started coming down. So what did I do? Okay. If you look at, if you look at the pivots, and again, we don't care which way the pivots are going to crack. We just wait for the confirmation. So we knew 335 to the upside, 327 to the downside. Okay. 327 doesn't mean 32705, 32712, 328, 328.5, 329. It means 327. It means it has to crack 327, start breaking 327, put them in the new low retrace back. And once it confirms that is your confirmation, that is your aces. So what did I do? Okay. The low for the day. Okay. The low for the day on Tesla is 327 and a half. Okay. So what I did was, and I, and I do this, you know, a handful of time of the year, I forecasted the trade. Okay. I forecasted. I was predicting where it was going to go next. So my reality versus the reality of where it was was completely different. So the low of the day is 327 and a half. Okay. It wasn't 327. It wasn't 326 and a half. It wasn't 326. It was 327. I had no business being in this trade. And I knew this. And I knew going into the trade and I was talking about it. You know, I shouldn't be in the trade. I shouldn't be in the trade. You know what? I think it's going to go lower. I think not it's going lower, not the bears are in control, not it's building underneath the lower demand, not at these technical areas that give me any type of, any type of relief knowing that this is technically happened. What I said was, I think the stock is going to retest that 327 level. So I started shorting the stock 328s, right? 328s. And what happened? You guessed it. I wound up losing money. But here's the kicker, not once. I lost money twice of it. Okay. My stupid feeble brain for whatever reason that day. Okay. Didn't wake up and say, oh, okay, you made a mistake. I went into the trade the second time around, the second time around. And again, the second time around had exactly the same results. And this was absolutely eating at me. I mean, I'm talking about eating at me while I was putting up the Christmas tree, while we were doing some, some Black Friday shopping, all that crazy stuff during a dinner. And you could tell, you could tell how it's just still irking me. And again, this is my process, how to put kind of the past to the past. And again, going into tomorrow's session, I'm going to be completely fine. But you could tell how, how really incredibly important it is for us to not to overthink. Okay. There's so many moving parts in trading. We talk about trading all the time, how you have to be perfect. And you have to wait for the sun and the moon and the stars to completely align before you go into a trade. And again, a lot of times you hear this all over social media, and sometimes social media actually does make sense. Most of the time when you're a professional trader and you're aspiring professional trader, you're doing a lot of sitting. Okay. You're doing a lot of sitting. You're doing a lot of data collection. Again, that's, that's your opinion. So the amount of time you're actually trading throughout the day doesn't compare to the time that you're actually sitting and waiting. So a lot of times in, again, you know, if I'm putting on two, three, four trades a day, I'm going to wait for those spots and I'm going to make sure they're perfect entries. Again, we don't know the word perfect. Again, that's the eyes of the beholder, but at least in my process, I have to make sure that all my ducks in row and it really does show you. And again, I'm going to make this mistake again at some point, going into next year, at some point, going into the following year. And I'm going to make, I usually make this mistake about three, four times a year. Okay. And it's almost to the point of that we can't escape our humanity. Okay. We can't escape our flaws because we're human beings. As human beings, we are flawed. We are flawed as parents. We're flawed as spouses. Okay. We're flawed as friends. So why wouldn't you expect that to kind of spill into your trading? But the worst part about that, the worst part about that is, I knew I was wrong. Before I even put on the trade, I knew I was wrong. And that right away, there's absolutely no excuse. So in certain cultures, if you do steal, they will cut off your hands. They will send you in prison, something that our society puts into play. But in trading, if you steal an entry and you are trying to forecast where it's going to go next without actually waiting for confirmation, there's no holding back. You're going to die and you're going to die every single time. So it's unfortunately another wake up call. Was it horrible? Was it horrific? No, because again, there's no, you know, there's no volume. And I was trading smaller size. So the monetary impact wasn't horrible, but the mental impact. And this is kind of where we burn mental equity on something that could have been avoided. That, if you are not careful, can spill over the next day. And the one thing I have an advantage over a newer trader, I know what I did wrong. So I'm not going to do that come Monday morning. Unfortunately, a new trader, if nobody sits you down and say, hey, what you're doing is wrong. The fact that you're forecasting, you're doing it wrong. The fact that you're trying to predict, you're doing it wrong. The fact that you're trying to be right, you're doing it wrong. If nobody sits you down and gives you that kind of wake up call, you're going to die over and over and over. And it's called death of a thousand paper cuts. And the moral of the story is unfortunately you won't be trading. So it's very, very important guys. And again, it's almost like a case of do as I say, not as I do. It's going to happen again. But the most important part is folks, even if you have to take a big sticky note and put it into your, right in front of your PC screen and just say, don't do it idiot, wait for confirmation. It might help somebody out. And again, it sucks. It's part of the business. But until we figure out a way and until, you know, until a company comes out with this magic pill that's going to turn off your humanity. Okay. We're going to do it again. The key is kind of do it less and less and less until you're finally almost to that point that you're in control of what's going to happen next. So hopefully this little conversation helped everybody. Ironically, it was actually a pretty good week. Very, very solid week. Amazon was incredibly strong all week. The video was a monster. Hell, even Facebook, man. I traded Facebook three or four times this week. They had some pretty good results on Facebook. I don't know. God knows why I didn't trade it on Friday, but it was a pretty good week. And again, if you look at the scoreboard, the overall scoreboard, the market did well. You know, the Nasdaq 100 was up almost 2%. You had a 1% move in the Dow. You had like a 1% move in the S&P. So good. The market is structured. We got through Thanksgiving. Now it's time for the quote unquote Santa Claus rally. And again, you know, with all these headlines, they're completely engulfing the headlines, no materialistic news that's really shaking the markets. And the most important part is, again, and I say this now for a long time, you know, it's a bull market till it's not. Okay. And again, it sounds very simplistic. And I said this all the time, but until you see a buyer strike, especially no macro news, you got to assume every single dip is going to get bought. And the most important part is you have to be conscious. You always have to be conscious that the other side of the, the other side of the aisle will pull your card. But again, you can't go into every single trading day, you know, waiting for a rug pull. I have, believe me, I have. And I'm very, very conscious on it. But again, strong stocks in this tape continue to be strong. We stocks in this tape are weak, but they're not slam dunks. It's very, very hard to get that, you know, that massive three, four, five dollar reversal candle because there's no fear. Okay. When there's no fear in everybody's in holiday spirits and there's no reason to sell stocks. Again, the last thing you want to do is have that key trade for reversal, you know, five to 50 cents a dollar while you can make three, four, five dollars to the upside. So again, still a good market, still a good market. You know, I was at the malls for, you know, a couple of days, ridiculously crowded. I don't know what parts of the country, what parts of the world everybody lives, but I live in New Jersey. The short hills mall was, was mobbed, was absolutely mobbed. I don't know, you know, they're talking about recession, recession, I don't, okay. We have a bull market. The malls were incredibly packed, traffic everywhere. So hey, listen, knock on wood and hopefully everybody is having a great start of their holidays. Let me give you guys some ideas going into this week. Again, market is strong until it's not. Let me give you guys some ideas going into this week. Let me see what I like here. Let me see what I like. Yeah, I like this berry. Let me give you guys some non-beta ideas. I like this berry, had a big gap up into supply. Guys, set an alert on this thing. This thing starts building 4780, 4780, 48 level. You might start, you know, next leg up and had a nice, nice move into supply retraced. Again, you can see how the five day moving average is very, very important. It keeps on hugging it and bouncing off of it. So if it starts reclaiming 48, I think this thing can go. Gilead looks good as well. Again, big gap up over supply. You can see over the linear aggression line now. It's just flagging. I think it started rebuilding and reclaiming 6780, 68. It can start going as well. I like this MBUU. I had this on the watchlist for a couple of days. It's trading thin, but here's the deal. Again, if you're trading smaller size, especially for all you guys who are swinging positions, again, you don't need a lot of size. You just need a structural balance in your chart. If MBU, if it starts just reclaiming 40 and starts building over 40, it's going to go. Again, you could see that the sellers are comfortable. Even though this thing traded hardly any volume, you could see the sellers are comfortable. And the sellers are comfortable. It means there's no selling pressure. You could see four days in a row, actually five days, one, two, three, four, five days in a row of higher lows. So it's very, very bullish. And once it starts reclaiming 40, maybe it goes there as well. Let me see what else I want to talk about. Kind of like this ST&E, right? I kind of like this ST&E as well. Nice flag, right? If it starts rebuilding 42, I think it can go higher. And then everything else is beta related. Again, the only reason, it's not a big secret. The only reason I don't like to put out a lot of beta names, especially into the public, I can't afford to have artificial volume coming into that price. When you're trading beta, it's very, very important to watch order flow and see how they start building. So if you see a massive volume surge, you don't know if it's a real buyer or hell, an update, right? Like a weekend update. So they say, well, Dan liked Tesla at this price. So we want to kind of avoid that just for everybody's safety. Because again, when you're trading high beta names, you really need to make sure who's controlling. It's not about a pivot is not a trigger. Pivot is an area that they reclaim and start to build. So it's very, very important. That's why I kind of try to avoid the pivots, the beta pivots on these updates. So that's it guys. So hopefully my little lesson, my little lesson kind of helped everybody and could help somebody down the road in the future. Again, this business is relentless. Okay, guys, it's absolutely relentless. You don't get any mulligans. And unfortunately, you're a biggest teacher. Okay, your best teacher is experienced. And if you keep on repeating the same steps over and over again, you're eventually not going to trade. And that's going to be, you know, obviously a very, very bad scenario. So guys, I want to wish everybody an absolutely awesome holiday season. I want to wish you guys an amazing trading week. And with God's help, I'll see you all in the field tomorrow. Take care guys. Have a great day. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault, where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.