 An intriguing week for DFS because we haven't had a lot of weeks this year We've had known value plays at running back ahead of time We kind of plan around them and decide how that dictates a roster and this week you got Zach Moss $5600 on fad will for this week know Jonathan Taylor and that opens up quite a bit So our decision point for this week is how hard we go at Moss. Do we put them in every single line up? Yes Oh, yeah, okay It's cool and then what do we do with the savings from Zach Moss because we've got guys like Christian McCaffrey and Tyree kill in Phenomenal spots or our job today is to break down that Discuss what we're doing at quarterback running back receiver tight in and more to get you ready for Sunday's main slate Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast. That's right here on the fad will podcast network and fad or research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for fad or research joined here as I am every Thursday by Brandon Gadoula check About on Twitter. I could do a 13. He is a senior managing editor for fad or research Brandon a fun slate We actually have good value running back. How you doing today? We have yeah, we have one great Obvious value play and we'll talk about the matchup for Moss kind of taking a How much would it take me not to play Zach Moss kind of situation here? And I don't think it's gonna be enough. So just a little bit of a spoiler alert there But yeah, it's it's good We got Potential value spots in other games, of course, but they're not as is good and I think a lot of this week is gonna be Trying to figure out Which about good look it's week 13 injuries are piling up teams are They know if they're making they don't know if they're making the playoffs, but they know what their intentions are Yeah, we're gonna see some guys get healthy and there's gonna open up some Opportunity for players with low Fandall salaries and they're not necessarily always worth it So it's about that time of year where we talk about opportunity versus Tangible upside and how much losing a good player Hurts an offense and how much that impacts things. So I You know, I couldn't really say for certain, but it feels like around this time after Thanksgiving is when we get into that type of conversation where we play the plays who Have motivation like it's not quite motivation territory yet, but trying to avoid the I want to say traps for value, but there's a fair way to phrase it. Like they're that's okay Yeah Look, I want everyone to have a lot of fantasy points, especially if they're on my team But I think that that's it's kind of the One of the big takeaways this this week. So I guess I kind of spoiled my Overview a little bit, but hey, this is my first podcast So yeah, no like you've had eight years of training in this or anything like that But yeah, I think it's it's a good slate to kind of think long and hard about prioritization, which is good I like say it's like that. I think that we have Legit options to go legit ways to spend our salary. So pretty fun slate and we'll break down everything you need to know Hopefully here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Tom Vecchio is with you every weekday talking NBA DFS over on the daily ISO We also have Austin Swain breaking down UFC when the when they have cards there as well All right here in the number fire daily fantasy podcast You can find that wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcasts or over on Spotify as well Also, do you not forget our free play for this week go to Fandall comm slash research to get Involved with that no entry fee got some chance at some free prizes over at Fandall research go to Fandall comm slash research there will be a Link in on the main page there Click on the story with the link for the free play go to that get yourself entered Maybe win yourself some free cash as well score early this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers Get 150 bucks in bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins been thinking about joining Fandall There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit Fandall and kick off the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC first online real money wager Only $5 pregame moneyline wager required $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is now withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt see terms that sportsbook. Fandall comm gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 42 in Arizona 1 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat connecticut 1 809 and with it in indiana 1 805 22 4700 or visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 877 770 stop in louis ziana visit md gambling health orick in maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia 1 805 22 4700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts Or call 1 877 a hope and why or text open why in new york Let's dig into that thing you alluded to brandy with our slate over here for week number 13 and to me it all boils down to zack moss and You know, how hard do you go at zack moss here on this show? You know our old saying like og heat check was in this house. We spend up at running back I think now it might be in this house We spend down at running back when we can and the when we can clause applies to this week with zack moss, so Like for reference last week Isiah pacheco was a good a good value play 66. There was no jerry pecanon. I liked him a lot and I had him on every single main slate lineup except for one So like that was a worse play than when zack moss is which means I'm probably just gonna go a hundred percent zack moss this week and then use that savings to get to either christian mcaffery or tarry kale Undecided as to which if I have two lineups I'm probably just going to go one of each because I'm a coward But that's my overview for this week is use zack moss to get to the studs. What stands out to you across week number 13 Before I get to that just imagine telling ourselves a couple years ago that we would use a value back To get to a receiver with a salary of 10,000 right instead of christian mcaffery And be happy about it to be clear and be happy about it. That's the wild part It's not out of like fear or obligation. It's because like no, I actually want to use him Yeah, that that's pretty crazy. Um, but yeah with moss, uh, he kind of opens up the slate, but If I did have a different sort of takeaway other than moss and Like what I kind of said about avoiding the Less appealing value that that seems to be there It would be trying to figure out Okay, we have zack moss we can and we have some good games not a whole lot of good games How heavily should I stack the games that kind of do elevate themselves? So it's not the hugest main slate but If we're crossing off a couple games that Really notice things down. So it's trying to figure out how how to get access to the games the right way What you looking at? I'm trying to see how many games i'm crossing off Actually, it is. Oh, it is actually one that was fair. I was like, oh, it's more than a couple But actually there are guys I could consider in all but one Well, there's consider, but how many games would you cross off from a pure stacking standpoint? Like how many two? How many at least one and a half qb games that we have? Oh That's kind of how to Well, no actually one maybe well Sometimes if you use ross as well, I think he's like a point two five Yeah, right sure So but like that the the traditional heat check game stacks No, the heat check also loves those mini stacks, which and and you know, we have some of those but talking like pure Okay, how do I use the value to stack up a game that I really want? There's not a lot of those games so trying to figure out Which game other than niners and eagles? I really like want to try to stack Right. I think and a lot of the games I want to stack this week. I don't want to stack with the quarterback I think that's that's part of it as well. So it definitely does play into this week like I'm not using the same howl. So that's a one quarterback game stuff But then also how but then also like how heavy can you get on the commanders to bring it back? It doesn't always matter. You know, we've moved away from you must yeah Like I've moved away from really making sure that I can bring it back Uh, but it does feel a little bit weird still. I mean, I yeah, I think you can bring it back but like I'm not going to do it in every lineup is Which is unfortunate, but I think that is the way it is Injuries for week number 13 big one, of course is j.t Going to miss a couple games with a thumb injury just thrust and zack moss back in the lead back We'll have $5600. We'll talk about that in the trend section There have been reports that dallas goddard could play this week, but he did not practice wednesday So you asked me odds that he played this week. I'm putting in a 25 percent for right now I thought 75 percent be well 60 before he missed practice wednesday We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section divan hann got in a limited practice wednesday with his knee injury Sounds like there's a legit shot. He plays this week tyree killin where he most dirt both set out But they've been doing that pretty often this year. So not a huge concern for me right now on those two We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section tank del didn't practice with a calf injury on wednesday Please do not take away my boy. Sounds like he'll be good to go though But dalton schultz did not practice with a hamstring injury brevin jordan question mark We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section jerry judy missed practice with a groin injury on wednesday Sean payton said that he expects judy to practice thursday So he may be good to go. We'll talk more about that in the bookmaker section Rashid jahid missed practice with a thigh injury on wednesday sound like he's gonna sit Um, wish I had known the get hurt before sunday slate, but chris olave Actually got in a limited practice. Uh, question protocol. I assumed olave would not play this week But this does give him a shot He need to practice in full by friday to clear protocol, but that's now possible whereas i didn't think it would be so Braina, let's assume olave plays. I i'm not assuming that but like let's just play the hypothetical here Let's say olave plays Would you be on olave against the lions? And if not, would you go at any of the value receivers in at parry or lynn bowden? Yeah, I mean, I love olave. So if he's good to go, um And I don't Really want to say this but like if he's if he's good to go He's probably going to be good to go because it's not like a lower body injury. That's not to dismiss like right It's it's not like he's could pull his hamstring or something like that like repull it So I'd feel better. Um Then most guys who are you know limited throughout the week In terms of practice, especially because olave's workload is just really phenomenal He gets a ton of downfield work and I just love that If he's out, um It's a little trickier, uh Last week juan johnson led that team and in route rate 85 had seven targets Um at parry had about 80 of the routes. He was at 89 in week 10 before their buy It four targets and two targets in those games So like this is the kind of thing that you always pose how much better is his Is he going to get on the field more? Right? Not a whole lot of room to grow on like an 80 route, right? I mean there is but like, you know, it's I don't think he's going to turn into a double-digit target guy all of a sudden, uh Bowden like Not I played that game before and it was not enjoyable. I don't know. There's a path to upside. I I think the best play here um Would be juan johnson, but also we got to take a look at tasam hill uh, so I don't want to say that this is just one of those like sort of trap situations because I think there are a few Guys who would benefit but not all of them. Yeah, johnson seven targets this past week And he's a guy who is super athletic Um, so I like juan johnson from like a talent perspective and like he'd probably have a pretty good role here as well Now with tasam hill, I also think that he would benefit here. It's a spot where the the total is pretty high Um, if they need to they do tend to lean on hill a pretty good amount He had I think seven rushes last week and he's averaging like a good number Like if you look at like his if we treat him like a running back and look at his adjust opportunity He's actually been pretty solid. Uh for the entire year and he's had spike weeks as well So I think both guys are in play honestly. I would lean towards hill at 65, but honestly, I I know how scraping along I'll be for salary that's not the right word to phrase that but like how cash strapped I'll be this week I I could see myself using johnson like a decent amount to just to save salary. I think he's a pretty decent play this week Yeah, he'll have seven carries uh two targets like 31 percent of the routes just I mean 12 routes, but uh I think he's gonna be a little bit harder to get to like you said We don't have a ton in in terms of look, we have zack moss and it might feel like oh You can play anybody you want, but it doesn't quite work that way still. Yeah and receiver Is pretty weak which could make some of these uh saint's guys appealing, but I don't think it's the right team to go to Yeah, so johnson stands out to me while we're here though talking about a team Being without some pass catchers Could be a tight game How heavy like do you have interest in alvin chimera who you have a better read on than I do? um interest yes, um His salary this week is $8,300 Which means he's right below kairan williams and kairan williams role is better than his With where things stand right now now the matchup is not ideal for kairan. He's facing the browns. Um, but I could see a lot of people going his direct I think it's fair to go his direction based on what he did and based on his role But like if chimera would be a lot lower salary then it's it's worth a look chimera if we look at just the games he's played Since jamal williams came back He's still at 13.4 carries and 7.2 targets per game in that time His adjust opportunities per game ranked second on the slate behind christian mccaffrey He has 105.4 yards per game from scrimmage, uh, which kairan's at 109.3. So the red zone role favors kairan by a mile but I think that he'd be a viable tournament pivot. Does that mean I'll get there? I don't know yet because like It depends on how firm I can feel about the value elsewhere because I you know I think that guys like rishad whiter in play Devin singletary givante williams at lower salaries are running back So I think because I'll be using a running back pretty heavily to spend down If i'm spending up I'd probably just rather find a way to get to mccaffrey over chimera, but I know it's a long-winded way to say I'm not really sure Yeah, I think chimera stands out as like a single entry option if you were if you were to play like chimera and all monrasin brown or something that kind of like It's going to be an unpopular stack because it's high salaried. Um or chimera and jameson williams Sure, I'll get my eye off. Don't worry I I think that's kind of the highest I can get on chimera is yeah I just any salaries a little too high. I think single entry is his best format For this weekend most weeks. Uh tray mcbride marquise brown and michael wilson all mispractice on wednesday for the cardinals They're on the road against the stealers a very good defense mink if it's patrick practice in full on wednesday It's going to open a volume with those guys sit but like also I don't know what the upside is against his defense so any cardinals for you this week if some of those guys wind up sitting Yeah, I don't want to sound like hypocritical because we we talked a pretty long time about some of the same's value But if you lose all of these guys like at a certain point in a tougher The often playing outside in the match. Yeah like with a worse Not worse Sorry, yeah, but you know offensive expectations matter And you need to move the ball and like Even 10 targets on a team that scores like seven points or i'm not saying this what they're gonna do But like if you expect offense to struggle it's it's trick. I know i'm just saying but And this this is always uh Again goes back to the top of show what I said There's going to be all a lot of these situations where it's like well, it's the offense even going to be worth it And I don't know if it's going to be the worth it this week. I agree Just speaking of which Joe flacco could start for the browns this week of dorian thompson robinson can't clear a concussion protocol Which I don't think he will so flacco is probably going to start do you care? uh Ram's defense I agree. Let's move now to the bookmaker section for this week. Let's start things off with the premier game on the slate That is the 49ers at the eagles. We're right now at fangirl sportsbook 49ers are two and a half point favorites the total in this game sitting at 47 and a half and brandon I think this game is pretty interesting on both sides of it and we've got some guys we can turn to and feel pretty good about And I don't think we're gonna like Downplay this game at all so my question for you is is it a two quarterback game? Is it a one and a half quarterback game one quarterback game aka Will brock purdy bleep be in your player pool on sunday? probably not That has a lot to do with how many lineups I would build um I think that I think there are three Quarterbacks in the top tier being jalen herds cj stroud and tuha bing bing Purdy's probably next up Uh, yeah, I think it's him and ross are like the two guys in contention there And then I think like if you really want someone else Probably goff, but he's so far down the list then that agreed. I think it's just probably the three for me And look the way that I build lineups is I want to get I want to hit on the right combos So spreading out to four plus quarterbacks over You know even really any amount of lineups makes it trickier and quarterbacks, you know more predictable than Other positions the thing for purdy though as you as you're pulling up like we've seen Really great efficiency from him. He's averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, which is Disgusting. Yeah, and if you're gonna be a pocket passer You need to be efficient and throw touchdowns and like that's what he does Yeah, for that reason though, like we I've looked into it The most likely guys to bust are over salaried pocket passers who like don't have the the high touchdown rate in game and don't run so I'm a little bit low on purdy, but I would probably say it's a 1.5 qb game if I really you know sit here and Answer that question if I were to to guesstimate the odds that I wound up using purdy on sunday I would say it's about 60 percent Because those savings are pretty attractive at 7800 dollars And he is lower salary than the other three guys we talked about and I like all those guys so And the way that this matchup sets up is the eagles are a team that teams are pretty past heavy against that's partly due to game script Because they tend to be leading a lot But looking at what teams do on early downs against them Early down pass rate against philadelphia is 65 percent That is the highest number in football number two is actually the 49ers teams pass against them at a 64 percent rate So a lot of passing in this game, which is why I don't care as much about the fact that it's not a high-paced game I actually bet the over when is it 46 and a half? Because I think it actually will be a pretty fun game from that perspective wind speed two miles per hour There is some rain, but I honestly could not care less We saw what happened on something there was rain for that eagles bill scheme correct exactly two mile per hour winds That's all I care about and it's not going to be that bad. So it's situation where They're going to be in a tight game for the first time in like a decade For all four quarters most likely They're facing a team that encouraged you to throw against him He has been very efficient and he's been very good on deep balls and like all those things Add up pretty well. Maybe it's just me like justifying Pretty and like yeah, I'm not at 100 percent going to use him. It's at 60 percent But like I think that's why you could make the case for him. And it's a pretty strong case. I think Yeah, uh, and he's got three, I mean Four, I guess real stacking candidates to include christian mccaffrey in that mix So my question to you is what's your who's your favorite? Not not that pretty is your favorite, but who's your favorite? Flex player from the 49ers here Oh man, that's really tough. Um I think the sample we're looking at here for them is what they've done in the games Excluding the sample where debo was banged up, which was like the middle part of the year So the sample I like to look at is weeks one two and then the past three games In that sample mccaffrey has 137.6 yards from scrimmage per game with a 58 red zone share. Oh my gosh Like that's Insane his workload Other thing I would say though is brandon at uke's Target numbers are low. He's at 5.4 targets per game in that span but Because he's extremely good at football. He's also averaging Um 86.6 yards from scrimmage per game in that span debo's at 75.8 um so like I think that if you want to be a bit different in stacking this game a purdy iyuk And then like I'd probably still run it back with demonetism or a j brown But like purdy iyuk Maybe brown or divante smith like I think that's a really pretty fun way to play things What do you think uh iyuk sample or uh in that sample? What do you think his catch rate over expectation might be? um 13 percent 18.7 percent. I thought I was going high. Yeah It's it and that's from next gen stats. That's uh That's really high and you want that number to be positive, but that's Kind of concerningly high on such a low target number Yeah, you think back to like the Thanksgiving game that game that that touchdown catch you have like he had no business catching that ball Look like it's a it's a tough metric to work in and think about because again you want it to be positive because that at the end of the year basically the better receivers have positive numbers there but That's pretty high. Uh, he's just kind of over performed for a lot of the year His catch rate over expectation for the full season. For example, it's uh, plus 6.6 percent um, so i'm not saying like he's Gonna just be super negative and he's averaging 88 yards per game um, so i'm i'm there, but I don't know if he's my favorite. Yeah, I'd probably like My favorite is christian mccaffrey. Frankly. Oh, yeah. Yeah but Yeah If i'm going with one of the pass catchers I have a lot of interest actually in George kiddo Oh, yeah Because he solves a riddle of tight end this week that is kiddo solve the riddle yeah It's tight ends pretty bad overall this week kiddos frankly one of the few guys who can put up 18 plus fandal points and the eagles They're not particularly good against tight ends I'm fine with that. He's getting some downfield work. It's still imperfect, but the salary is not like 8 000 It's gettable. I think if I had to pick one In a single entry kiddo jumps out among the three pass catchers. I'd probably go mccaffrey otherwise, but right um That's not that's not to speak ill of debo or iuk, but yeah kiddo has that positional scarcity value added in in what is A pretty solid tight end matchup. Yeah the least so I mentioned before the sample of All four guys being fully healthy kiddo has the same number of targets per game in that span as iuk has He also has multiple deep targets and now five consecutive games and debos played in three of those So I've always had issues with him when debo or iuk play like I I love him when one of them This is but like I've had issues there But now that he's getting deep balls from the most efficient deep ball passer in football right now Like i'm not saying best the most efficient deep ball passer in football Like that's worth quite a bit in a game that I want to stack so Like if I have three stacks to this game I think I want kiddo and one at least like I think he's a priority from that perspective. Yeah I'm probably realistically. I'm probably more likely to get to debo because I'm a coward And like I like George kiddo, but and we don't care about floor But if I'm looking from a probability standpoint, it's still a little bit easier to justify debo and a value tight end Yeah Debo salaries really nice at 7300. It gets work in different ways. He's been in the back I don't have the the actual numbers, but he's been in the back for it a lot So he's at three point or three carriers per game and that's that span I cited before with also 6.6 targets per game. So he actually leads in targets per game in that span as well Yeah, so I have a hard time going with iuk over Debo, I just think that the matchup like I like iuk's like this is a such like a Film bro kind of takes so sorry, but like I just like the way that iuk matches up with a secondary more And that's that's a big part of why I and like I also think people will go more towards debo because of the salary Yeah, it's it's just I mean Purdy's in play. We love mccaffrey We strongly like debo iuk and kiddo. It probably sounds like I don't really like iuk, but I do Yeah, it's just like you said harder to get through the salary and that Gives us some added game theory to get to him. So I think our thoughts are clear on the 49ers. Uh, what are you thinking for the eagles? I just want to see if I can build a uh purdy. Ooh, I can uh purdy mccaffrey iuk aj brown lineup actually does work It does require some Debasing of yourself At times But I think it does work. So, uh, what was the question again? I was distracted shocker. I know what about the eagles Um, I really want to get to aj brown this week his salary is down to 84 to dollars It has come down because he hasn't been you know, it hasn't been as hot recently but Like in the two games without um without dallas goddard He still has a 27 target share with 25 the deep work and a 40 red zone share It's like his workload has still been good He just hasn't had the insane efficiency that he had earlier on this year And if if goddard does play like his splits and that's spanner very good. So from a I want to spend up to be contrarian perspective. I love aj brown But honestly like if goddard doesn't play I love divante smith too. So I would I think it's similar to iuk where I kind of want to spend up to be contrarian And I can do that this week. So I think that's why if I have a single entry lineup like one I'm preferring aj brown over divante smith under the assumption. He will be Lower rostered this week Yeah, I would say it's It's pretty similar to the iuk versus debo kind of conversation one player is easier to justify from Um Like a pure value based standpoint and like over or under achieving expectations So aj brown stacked with iuk is a really really appealing Way to go about this game a little bit differently. Not that It's it's a tricky one to talk about because it's not like oh aj brown brand and iuk guys with salaries of 8 000 And but like or higher so sneaky but pairing them together is not the like the easiest thing this week because yes, we have zak mas but receiver values pretty bad Overall, so it's it's it's again. It's a little bit of a Of a you know, plant your flag sort of situation for those two, but I'm with you. I like brown a lot It's still easier to justify divante smith. Yeah what about As jamon hurts just clearly like that's a one priority to get to um I think I've grown really far out of to it within the past like three hours So to his salary is 84 to dollars hurts is at 9 000 and hurts is like He is dependent on rushing touchdowns But also like he's such a good bet to get them like he's averaging two per two per game now Like for the year because he has multiple in three games this year um eventually that will not happen, but also like even if like It comes down like maybe he gets it through the air, uh, which he hasn't done a ton so far this year. So I think he's the qb1 accounting for salary, but my My interest in toa keeps making me question that a tiny tiny bit Yeah, we'll talk about toa here more in a second, but I feel like we don't have to force in jalen hurts, but it would sure would be nice to get there Yeah, um, so it's probably going to depend on what other value opens up by sunday And if I can't I don't want to build a lineup where I I don't say punt. That's so demeaning. Um Like I don't want to build a lineup where I have anyone who I'm playing out of necessity Well, I get the case where like james and williams, but for example if I'm building one lineup I don't know if I feel good enough to have him in it And if that's the difference of like jalen hurts versus toa or shroud like i'm fine with it I think that makes a lot of sense You alluded to dolphins and commanders. Let's talk about that game right now or right now It's actually the highest total on the slate at 49 and a half with the dolphins favored by nine and a half and The implied total for the dolphins as a result is 29.5 the commanders implied total is also like respectable at 20 So the dolphins come with high salaries, but I think they're pretty clearly worth it So will you get to toa this week and any bringbacks for you on the commander side? I will get to toa, uh again, so washington's just Basically the worst past defense by a lot of different, uh metrics And toa in five games against past defenses outside the top 20 in terms of epa per drop back 334.6 yards per game 2.6 passing touchdowns per game Again, if your quarterback's not going to run you need like 350 and three to four touchdowns You're we're kind of just betting against jalen hurts this week in terms of 35 plus points toa can get there Stroud can get there a couple guys maybe in their best game of the year can get there, but It's not it's not super loaded with superstars. So Like 28 from toa would would be great. Uh, but also tired kill on those matchups that I already mentioned. Um 134 yards per game 1.2 touchdowns per game and Jen waddles at 85 yards per game and just 0.3 touchdowns, but with hill in particular like This team is beaten bad teams And struggled a bit. Yeah, it's what is this yardage? That's yeah 120.4 yards per game this year. What what? So like the value conversation is always tricky to talk about because you do need some semblance of Players overperforming their salary Hill can still do that, but you're almost My question to you is do you think we're getting to the point where We're a little maxed out at 10,000 unless he puts up 40 which he can put up 40 easily, but if he gets you 22 Are you happy with that? I'm not mad about it, right? So If he gets me 22, that's fine, but that's also a bit below like expectation this year He said 21.5 per game and this is the best matchup you can possibly concoct. Um So I'm not mad at 22 points, but like, you know Like he had 39 in the game this year. He said 28. He said 25 like One line up for you macafer your hill I still gotta go running back there when it's christian macafery. I'm going macafery I was that way earlier this week I it's kind of like similar to where I'm like, I'm really questioning it right now Just because again, like you said the commanders are so bad and we've seen the the dolphins keep their front of the gas at times this year Not as much recently. Um So maybe that's why you could instead go towards the more competitive game, but Like just it's a they're facing a team that throws the ball a lot, which leads to a lot of play volume. Um, they're bad against the pass like I I still lean macafery, but like it's I'm questioning it a lot With potentially going to hill instead I think the odds of work you I don't think you can really look at what time these these teams play So one rock Uh, one o'clock in the worst time zone new in the best Well, the the 49ers playing the afternoon. Oh, I thought I was gonna say is I Let you say they both play at one o'clock at 130. You can't kick yourself or playing either of these guys Correct. Like no matter what happens. Yeah So It is what it is, but I'm leading macafery If I can only play one. Yeah I lean macafery as well Lean is the keyword there though. Let's talk about the dolphins backfield divan h-han Sounds like he has a shot to go this week his salary has come down to 7400 dollars and He is in the erin jones zone where I need need need need a full practice before I ever consider using him Because it does seem like that knee is Still not perfect, but it sounds like he kind of potentially could have played last week and that does help me a bit So I I want to see a full practice if we get a full practice for h-han. I would say for tournaments He is he is on the menu. I will not go anywhere near him in cash games. I would never consider that I value my money But like for tournaments like a single entry tournament. I'm at least considering it Uh, how would you view h-han for tournaments if he gets in the full practice on friday? The hardest part with this is I would typically just say look, they're big favorites. They don't need to run this guy into the ground But he's like the jamal charles where he can basically snap some jamal charles is worth more than 75 snaps from anyone else Like he can torch us on You know 12 touches That's the hardest part. He's in play for tournaments for me. But like you said no cash games um The odds I get to him over how many lineups would it take for you to get to h-han um seven Seven seven small small entry tournaments Okay, I think I need a Probably a few more but I guess also running backs not great. Yeah, so and it's always come down quite a bit Sure. It's tempting. Yeah, but I think we're ultimately what what matters here is that He's in play but not someone we're going out of our way to play in a single entry or anything like that All right, let's talk commanders past catchers. Sorry. I I value you and our friendship, but I am going to make you talk about it Terry McClure and salary at 67 courtesy mail 62 jahan dotson 59 and logan thomas is 52 Preference for you and then if I give you 10 to a teams, how many do you run it back with? So these guys have a semblance Somewhat of a path to upside for McClure and I think it's just that he's I think he's talented. Yeah For samuel, it's that he's talented and gets some interesting workloads Dotson's talented Logan thomas is talented So like he put all that together in a game where seem already throws a ton and should throw a ton There's a there's a misnomer that just the target volume matters We've seen McClure and have double digit targets a lot, but just not a lot of like Eruption games. He's having a giant Johnson year. I think that's kind of mean, but I also think it's kind of accurate Yeah, I don't know how much of it's his fault. I agree Let me see here. He's got What two touchdowns Uh expected uh his expected touchdown numbers are I mean it's like 3.8 is sure Which is half as many so I think you could do worse than McClure My my I guess my real question though is If you're Somewhat begrudgingly stacking like bring backs in this game. Should you just save salary at that rate? And go to like Logan thomas you mean or two dots in either Yeah dots and I struggle with because like every time samuel has played he's been dust From a yarders perspective and samuel will play and like he got a lot of looks so like I think I'd rather probably go Samuel over dots and personally between the two. Yeah 100 yards last week for samuel Like he hasn't been great either But his target share in the games if we look at the games that they've all been healthy and I mean fully healthy So excluding ejections stuff like that Samuel is a 19 target share dots and Logan thomas are both 15 McClure in 22% And a lot of red zone work for samuel as well. We know he gets some rush attempts So I'd probably go Samuel if I'm not getting there, but his salary is only 500 lower than McClure So I think that's part of why I prefer terry over those two those three guys Yeah, he's the more traditional play again should have some regression come his way We're talking like catch rate over expectation numbers or at least I know I am Who's it a minus 5.7 in the past couple weeks? For the full season. He's at a plus two though, so like Recently underperforming. He's usually a good player there and that number so I think he's He might be In what is a very bad? 6,000 range for receiver this week. He might be the best play He's the best play below McClure in in the 6,000 range. It's him or probably Please don't yell at me. It's him or josh downs Down there. We had a big slack argument about josh downs where I insisted that he's the worst player of all time He's not. Um, it was partly did to perturbe you But like below McClure in a 67. I think that it's either Samuel or josh downs is like the best play down there in the six, yeah, I meant I meant McClure in I think is the best play in 6,000 range easily. I got you. But it's a it's a bad range and that yeah I'd rather just avoid it entirely. That's why I'm into williams again. I know sorry Um As a way to save salaries to devoid this range entirely. I think it's the stars and scrubs kind of weak Um, like I think that's kind of where I'm leaning effectively Anything else for you in this game? I think Most are Nope, let's move on to the final game in the bookmaker section. That is the broncos at the texans are right now Our texans our three and a half point favorites total is 47 and a half And that means the texas applied total is second highest in the slate at 25 and a half Love it. You'll love to see it. The broncos defense has improved recently though So does that put a damper on any enthusiasm for you around the texans here? Uh cg stroud Is at 0.18 EPA per drop back over opponent level expectation Two was at a 0.19 mvp candidate josh allen's at a 0.18 um It's basically like Brock purdy is having an outlier season in that metric at a 0.35 and then it's like Uh Dack to a herbert allen stroud And then it's a bump down to even patrick mahomes. So I don't want to overthink it due to any sort of matchup situation Let me see here. What what's he done? How many He's got a lot of games against tops. Yeah, he's got five games against top 10 past defenses He's averaging 266 and 1.6 touchdowns 8.0 yards per attempt And you can run a little bit. Yeah, not a ton. He ran pretty effectively last week He was willing to run Did run did so pretty effectively One of those games against the tough defense was baltimore the first game of the year and like they're kind of a sicko level defense I also would say I don't think I think denver is getting a bit overhyped um defensively at least I think people realize they're still not good against the rush but I think they've got a bit overhyped against the pass because like if you look at the Teams they've placed Of course, they had the cheese matchup and they did well against the bills. So like give them credit for that but they actually played basically two expectation against the vikings and the browns and Like I'm not going to hype up a defense because I shut down Joshua dobs and dorian thompson robinson slash pj walker So i'm a bit more hesitant in in like crowning the broncos as being a good defense against the pass so I think that the texas are still a really good option for this week through the air So so if you take out as you pointed out his game against baltimore, which was his first start Against the team that kind of throw a lot of different stuff and they're just really good Uh, he's got then four games against top 10 defenses his epa over expectation per drop back is 0.32 I mentioned part is at a 0.35 and he's average 9.4 yards per attempt. So and again, we don't put at least I don't I don't want to speak for I don't put the broncos in that tier even so it's good to check that in case they are good But I don't think they're there yet. So Point being stroud is phenomenal So let's talk about the pass catchers uh tank dal is mentioned in our practice on wednesday It sounds like he'll be good to go but his salary is 82 now. So like they're actually making us think about it Which is a first in terms of salary nico collins 76 I think he earned that bump uh because he's been getting good volume. Look at the games they played Together this year in the games where del has played the full game or nico has played Uh targets distribution right now is 23 percent tank dal 22 percent nico collins Del has a 36 deep target share whereas nico is at 23 percent But nico has the edge and red zone targets 33 percent to 9 percent for tank dal So for game stacks, I'm just going to speak for you and say we like both. Um first for standalone plays, how are you viewing tank dal and nico collins? I mean, I like both. I just I think this is the hardest I think receiver might honestly be the hardest position of the week. We've got like we talked about Three to four cubies. We feel quite good about We've got macaffery and the ability to play him because of zack moss Tight end. There's only so many guys who can really burn us and we have a few But there's upside to be had at receiver But there's also high salaries to be paid for receiver and it's kind of hard to Allocate a ton of salary at receiver as well Tank dal's like workload. I don't even know if people probably realize how good it is Like his downfield work is Some of the best in the league. Yeah, which is awesome. Yeah He has scored in four straight games and the salary has gone up. I've done research on The fact that we should probably divest at a certain point when the salary keeps climbing and someone keeps scoring Does that to say that I don't think you could score again this week because it was work Like his workloads good enough to do that, but at a certain point um You got to kind of move away. So I'd bump him down a little bit. Sure Uh, Nico, I like a lot as well though. Uh, he's the salary's Not quite as low as I would hope but in terms of my gap In terms of the gap between the two and again, he's coming off of a big game He's got like monster yardage upside though, which is is fun So they're both in play I like stroud a ton and I would play stroud as my Main qb if I need to like I said But I guess it is kind of harder to stack stroud with one of his past catchers. Would you rather stack? What's this what would be the salary? Here, okay, that's about the same. Would you rather stack? Stroud and either Nico or tank or toa in jail and model um Because obviously it'd be tirey, but that's not a fair conversation. Um, hmm I actually don't know Yeah I think to answer the standalone question play I think I'm not going to have a lot of standalone receivers who are not values this week Um, if I have a higher salary receiver, it would be part of a game stack, which means iuk Devonte Smith a j brown tirey except like that So my one off receivers are probably going to be the lower salary guys Which means I'm probably going to Not be here a whole lot in game or outside of game stacks Which is like not to like dismiss and it's more so just like from a roster construction perspective I know the games I want to stack have a lot of receivers. I like Yeah, so then the the follow-up is are you more likely to play a bronco? To to solidify the shroud or you know in tank or Nico stack or a commander For that toa like waddle stack probably a bronco Um, because I actually think courtland Sutton's fine relative to salary 69 um Like his workload has been pretty good since their bi-week, which is where they've gotten marvin mensmore involved in that time Sutton has a 26 overall target share 50 deep and 33 inside the red zone and the Texans not very good against the past I know they've been better since Derek Stingley. I don't want to say better, but like he's a good player to get back Um, so like I think that Sutton is pretty justifiable and I also don't hate givante williams at 66 Uh, givante williams played a 71 snap rate last week He had I think like 18 carries and six targets in that game and overall since the snaps went up He is at 18.4 carries and 3.8 targets per game Which is a really good workload and my issue with him previously had been his red zone workload Which had been like he lose work to p ryan and the glocklin He still does at times, but his tar his red zone share is 49 So i'm pretty likely to have givante williams in a good number of lineups And I think that's not something I can say about any commander's player right now Yeah, so with that all in mind and again you get still play Tua and waddle and not bring it back and prefer that to Stroud plus givante or Sutton, but I think realistically between givante and begrudgingly courtland Sutton Which has nothing to do with him. Just correct. He's awesome Uh, I probably get to Like Stroud and at that rate. I just want to get up to tankdale frankly, but yeah for sure Let's talk about uh, devon single tarry. I think that single tarry is a really good single entry play too because The way the guys I like for single for a for a single entry are players who Are underrated and optimizers Because you tend to see a lot of like cashier type lineups in single entry And I think that's a bad philosophy to use for single entry Single tarry will not pop in those because you look at last week's workload six carries Like why would I want to use this this guy who has traditionally not had yard and jump side and had six carries last week but he had an 80 snap rates and had seven targets in that game and the broncos are still trash against the run so I think that might be the way I go is I've got my My quarterback stuff elsewhere and then I have a game stack here of single tarry and givante williams Going that route to stacking this game. Are you okay with single tarry? Because I think he is flawed still and I want to acknowledge that he is still flawed Are you okay within that seven thousand or to get access to a good game and a good matchup? I'd say he's okay. Yeah I don't know if he The the snap rates great if you're not getting if you're not going to get carries That's that's one thing. Um, we love the targets. They're worth basically double, you know a carry It's a pretty dead range between Like we're shot wide at 75 in givante at 66 depending on how you feel about Like maybe a de andre swift just in a game that is Appealing and he has kind he has talent. Yeah So single tarry is probably the most likely player in that range that I would get to Yeah, I don't think that he would be in He might be in consideration for me for my like my main main lineup, but yeah, probably not Um, considering salary Rashad white or devon single tarry White I think I lean that way too. Uh single tarry or givante in this game I think givante because he's Just way more talented Okay, I'm not going to push back on those So like maybe I'm less likely to get the single tarry than I thought I was but like I still Wouldn't be shocked. I think what's our good. Oh, he doesn't have a russian Giovanni doesn't have a rushing touchdown yet this year Yeah, it's because juliana glocklin comes into the one yard line plays one snap and has scores one touchdown. It's very annoying But at a certain point, I love his red zone shares better now. So I'm just tilting about that The one thing I do want to bring up is uh, again, dalton schultz didn't practice on wednesday brevin jordan sari is 43 Maybe this is just like the sicko like dynasty bro and me, but like I liked brevin jordan a lot coming out of miami He's a fit around picks like it wasn't like he had a lot of draft equity but like he's dealt a lot of injuries and He played a good number of snaps last week played some decent snap rates before getting hurt earlier on this year as well He's also been a healthy scratch quite a bit throughout his career so I'm not above using brevin jordan is the way I'd phrase this. Is it a dumb play? Yes, but tight end is also very dumb like In terms of projections, there is one guy that's being projected for more than 10 vandal points like Is it really that stupid to use brevin jordan? I don't think so. So I I will consider it Do you hate yourself enough to use brevin jordan as well? He's I definitely consider Him without schultz. I think the real question though is I know 600 can go a long way this week, but jordan or juwan johnson juwan johnson is the much more justifiable play Okay, yeah But if I need to say the 600 I might so If I can get to juwan johnson, I prefer him because he's a he's a better play objectively but I might eat it My if that's the difference between like tiray kill and not tiray kill. Um, probably saving the 600 I guess the way out Phrase that okay Let's dig in now to our trend section for week number 13 and talk about the lion's offense because that game's actually kind of Fun totals been creeping up there. I think it's 46 and a half now For the lions and the saints we talked about maybe getting to juwan johnson Maybe tason hill maybe chimera. Maybe a lave if he plays Let's talk about the lion side of things talk about what they've done since david montgomery came back What have you seen in there once you dug into the data? Yeah, so we're always looking for like the most relevant samples for teams sometimes that's just one week sometimes that's You know, someone gets hurt you look back at the beginning of the season two whenever they were both like guys were healthy I think with this team it's Just since david montgomery's been back because jimera gibbs did some stuff and things have clearly changed So, you know, they've had they've been they've played together for six games, but Three of them were before that breakout and so i'm not Looking at those. Uh, i'm looking at three games with Dave montgomery back in the lineup And in those games jimera gibbs has been the guy in a lot of ways From a snap rate standpoint both have production though and that actually has montgomery at a higher salary of 7800 than gibbs at 77 But if i just told you like the snap rates and some of the more underlying data you would Probably i can probably sell you easily on preferring jimera gibbs, but in these three games 62 snap rate for gibbs compared to 35 for montgomery 69 of the routes for gibbs compared to 19 for montgomery montgomery's averaging more carries with 13 compared to 11 But gibbs easily has more targets 6.3 compared to 1.0 Um gives us an 18 target share in this split, which is awesome montgomery though still some yards 95 scrimmage yards per game With gibbs at 93.3 both have the same 31.4 total red zone opportunity share The receiving alone isn't enough to separate them Um, but the snap rate itself just so clearly favors gibbs Now there's a lot of leverage on the touches that montgomery gets. He's Like a rejuvenated player. I always thought he's pretty good. Um, in a less than ideal situation I'm not saying montgomery is unplayable, but between the two Give me the hundred dollars in savings and the much higher snap rate and the and the passing work Now notably in these three games the lines have a pass rate over expectation of minus seven percent And have been at least 8.1 percent Below expectation in two straight games, but they're so pretty fast So there's been passing volume, which is fun. This team's just a good, you know, dfs team Jared golf has 33 35 and 44 attempts in the past three games and That leads me to amon raw saint brown who has a 29.5 percent target share A 10.3 per game for 109 yards um Great catch rate of expectation of plus 15 points, but it's a it's a high salary But I think it's very justified for a player who's the clear focal point of the passing offense other than that though sam la porta Whose salary is way up on a bad tight end slate at 7 000 but he's at a 17.1 percent target share He's the only guy above 11 percent other than gibbs and saint brown Uh, new world has been pretty bad against tight ends when she adjusted the player level I have them 27th on a per target basis Jared golf's been pretty good against tough opponents. So I'm able to buy in here Uh, if I had to pick one to prioritize it would be amon raw saint brown Just because he's very fun and very good and a salary is very reasonable Uh, and as much as I like gibbs, there's still a problem where he's not going to get all of the High leverage work and his salary is pretty elevated if I looked at You know if these guys were lower salaried I'd consider them more strongly, but I want to like this game. I think there are reasons to like this game. There are reasons like this offense But is anybody like a true core play here for you? No, um, no core plays for me I would say that Gibbs is really interesting for single entry um like Other guys who we've like deemed to be interesting for single entry are divan h-han um, I think we said chimera was in that range as well And that's probably the list I would say is guys that I'm like actively looking at is like tournament level plays I might like gibbs more than h-han and chimera. Is that outrageous or no? No, he's got a great workload Um Masked like he's averaging over 90 yards per game While having another back averaging 95 yards per game in the split. Yeah and he's just It's an 18 target share a lot of targets there too. He's a good back um, you know Indoor matchup. Yeah game with a high total and relatively tight spread Yeah, it's it checks a lot of the boxes, but he doesn't check the box of Like core level because the salary is just a bit high I think like a gibbs like joan johnson mini stack or Like if a lave plays a gibbs a lave stack like That's a fun way to get exposure to or actually a gibbs. Taste some hill stack could be kind of interesting too uh, so like I think that like Mini stacks here. I'm not going to use either quarterback. Um, but like I think mini stacks with gibbs are Pretty interesting. I'm probably not going to get to a monrock for the same reason I discussed with like tank dal and nico collins were like I just I don't think I have a lot of one off receivers um, oh lave would fit there, but I think I like a lave a little bit more because of salary Is that dumb? I don't know. Maybe no, I think a lave is a lave is really good Yeah with his downfield work factored in Yeah So I think the gibbs is very interesting So glad you talked about him because I I'm tempted to Make him some guy gets you Amon rod 85 or kairan williams at 85 and a bad match up kairan Like miles garret didn't practice wednesday. I think that's worth keeping an eye on too that can boost kairan's match up a bit There's also a chance of short fields for the ramp's offense. Well It's lack of its pick sixes so like There's no field there, which is disappointing. I need him to be a little bit better. It's just it's not a fix like Throw it into coverage. So at least they're they're tagged down joe like do us one favor here one last time My first training was talking about the sealers with matt canada. Uh, they finally put up or without matt canada I should say they finally put up yardage last week. Uh first game without canada at oc so I initially didn't think they were super different So I kind of wanted to ignore it But they're playing the cardinals this week So I had to dig in and like there actually were some differences and I think that those differences are intriguing Now, let's start with the things that did not change Their pass right over expectation was actually down to negative 4.2 percent Their full season number is 3.7 negative 3.7 percent So a bit more run heavy but negligible there. They also had their slowest pace of the year So that's a bad thing But they did do some nice things for candy picket in terms of making things easier on him Which is what you should do when you have a limited quarterback. They ran play action on 24 of his drop backs That's up 10 percentage points from where it was under canada. He was also throwing in rhythm Over the middle of the field. Uh picket's time to throw us down 0.3 seconds He threw only 42 of his attempts outside the numbers, which are really tough rows That's down 12 percentage points from where it was under canada And this all resulted in his expected completion percentage going up three percentage points And top it all off pickets a dot increased to 8.4 yards up from 7.0 So they gave him easier throws and they were pushing the ball down fuel more. Those are both very good things That's the biggest positive here and it's one that could be sticky So i'm not going to touch picket because I respect myself. I still think he sucks But I can be more receptive to their pass catchers especially in matchups as good as this one against the cardinals looking at the Target distribution there. It was a lot to pass fryer muth and diante johnson fryer muth had 11 targets Three of which were downfield diante johnson had eight targets one downfield two in the red zone Still just five targets for george pickens two of which were deep Johnson was still inefficient shocker. I think his odds of hitting a ceiling are still Low they're higher But i'm not going to go there at 68 uh fryer muth is more palatable though his salary is 58 and he'll be popular I think but David and joku's popping and optimizers for some reason I don't know why you tell me but if that keeps you away from fryer muth sick. I love it Uh, it's a low salary way to get exposure to a great matchup I don't hate that the backfield remains status quo. Najee harris 53 snap rate 49 for jail and warren warren digging 19 adjust opportunities or carries plus two x targets, but That is his third highest mark this year And his 13 carries were a second most. Um It's still not perfect, but like it's not terrible his salary 65 I would love to go there in this matchup, but I don't think I can justify it at this workload So I would say three things are true here. The steelers look better now with more easy buttons for kenny pickett They're at a great matchup I don't know for sure if i'll use anybody other than fryer muth here So any other takeaways for you from the steelers in their first game with no, uh, mac canada We're thrown out of like Throws outside the numbers and play action rates next gen stats rules. I'm That's what sounded like you were charting this stuff being a coming a film guy No, I looked at next gen stats. I cheated. I took the I took I used my own easy button so so I was looking at like, all right, I don't know the last time that we've played deontay johnson It's probably outside a single game. I've used Eyes was MVP in a single game slay once and I still hate myself for it. It was the stupidest thing I've ever done My I've done a lot of dumb stuff and that was definitely number one But i'm sitting here looking Okay, uh For me downfield targets are 10 plus yards. He had four of those so four out of eight. He had both red zone targets um, if if if they're trying to make like Simpler throws, but he's also getting some down like intermediate to downfield work. Um Because his eight off was 11.7 yards wasn't like 21.7 yards I was like Okay receivers weak six thousand range is bad Could I consider deontay johnson? Sure, let me see where he is in the lowest like the low six thousand the salary is 68 so like that's We talk about like Hank del maybe being in this like salary stealing or tirey kill at ten thousand like What is deontay johnson's best? Game get an 18.4 point game this year. How like that's a shocker to me They score three times He's not allowed to score touchdowns. You know that um like my threshold for using a guy's 85 yards or two touchdowns and this Dick has gotten 85 yards twice this year. So I can't even cross him off and like that's annoying to me because I want to cross him off Yeah, I still like okay. Here's here's the out brand and I know you'll love this because you love narratives You do not get mad at me or time to bring them up Bad vibes bad vibes all around with deontay johnson. There was like that play with him not hustling after a fumble He's been weird on twitter like the weird on twitter. I'll go bumps him down like 13 percentage points Okay And I wasn't gonna play him anyway. Picking 66 is the worst play than deontay johnson at 58 somehow Like I think I think they're both bad, but I think the fryer with this pretty solid 58. Are you okay with him? Yeah, I like I like fryer meuth. Um, I've always liked his talent and if he's gonna get Look Kenny picket should just make make whatever throw as he can get and yeah, that's gonna be fryer meuth over the middle Give me that. Uh, but he's the only just shining through right here. Love it is Oh, yeah Big pain you are big Um, is he the only play in this game for you? Yes right now Um other I would say he's number one only other guy I am somewhat considering his warrant and I feel bad about that Like I don't think I should consider him but like it's a great match up and like he can bust off long plays so I don't think I should I think it's a terrible process play but like If you're asking me which guys can make me regret not using him I think it's fryer with one and warren two Sure. I I think that the warren He can break off big play like we want big plays, but if he's dependent on like we want good workloads With the addition of breaking off big plays. Yeah, so I think the likelihood of getting one against his defense goes up But like he is dependent big plays, which is not the kind of player we want to use especially when like Givante williams 66 like he's right there single single terry I still have a couple of weeks on the the ban on single single digits. Uh, so Single terry is right around there too. I think they're both better plays then then warren Agree, okay. Well, let's move now to your second trend. Let's talk about the zakmoss conundrum And you're gonna talk us through this because he is facing the titans. They're a defense We've avoided with running backs when we can all year, but Does that mean we can avoid zakmoss at his ridiculously low salary? Yeah, so it's it's just not typical that we get a running back value play as early as thursday morning to go over and at this rate You know, you talked about it at the top of the show, but Our process has sort of become Take the running back value where where it exists and we've always kind of been that way. It just hasn't always existed because teams have historically worked in a In a way that they've had featured backs You know, someone got hurt This will probably sound weird and I've done but I've done a lot of like work with waiver wires Even though teams featured one back If that back got hurt They didn't always have one player take over the workload They would kind of spread it out and that's why like waiver wire historically is a little bit overrated in terms of Season long fantasy football, but we don't really have that with zakmoss like we've seen him Without jonathan taylor Play a lot and play well and this so this is just a different situation So what I want to do is look at this match up and convince myself not to play zakmoss And I'll see if I can do it because default is I want to play a lot of zakmoss and by a lot. I mean just play him But if you look back at the beginning of the season You know jonathan taylor came back in a limited fashion in week five moss didn't play in week one but even if you include that game were Jt played I think it was like 18 percent of the snaps in week five moss was very very involved Um, we've got four games then with moss playing at least 75 percent Of the team snaps and in those games he's averaged 129.3 scrimmage yards on 22.3 carries and two and a half targets per game With a 57 red zone opportunity share, which is just a dominant number. He was used as a pure featured back with some talent and receiving work in a great red zone work workload as well You know in that week five game With taylor playing so 16.4 percent of the snaps that came against the titans moss went for 23 carries 165 yards 47.8 rushing success rates. So it wasn't just dependent on big plays two touchdowns and 30 receiving yards on two targets So it's pretty clear that moss has the it factor And we're not selling ourselves on oh, he might get to 50 percent snaps Like let's consider him But as for the matchup again, we've seen him play well in this matchup already this year Most running backs sort of haven't If you look at a lot of different metrics, the titans are Just really good against running backs for the full season Top five and rushing success rate allowed to running backs top 10 yards per carry Which is not a metric I like to use but it's a simple one to kind of look for a combination of volume and efficiency there Over a full season, but it has some really strange splits And I asked you about this because you do a lot of this work But in weeks one and two they allowed it under a 20 percent under a 20 percent rushing success rate And i'm just going to use yards per carry because it's simpler to understand here But 2.65 yards per carry in those first two games then from weeks three to nine 43 rushing success rate in 4.7 yards per carry allowed to running backs And then a weeks 10 through 12 back down to a 24 rushing success rate and 2.7 yards per carry allowed so Had a really weak middle of the season, but they've kind of put the clamps down again But if you take a closer look, I think this is a pretty matchup dependent Haven't really played a lot of great running backs or a lot of great offenses Um so I don't really think that I can talk myself out of zak mas now while we're here if you want to pivot away from os I think you have options within this offense Because the titans are a bit of a funnel defense 30 against the pass and fifth against the run according to number fires metrics I think minch you gardener minch who's going to rate out like okay and optimizers, but i'm not getting there and like we used to Hate on the colts for never giving anyone a 20 target share in a game, but michael pitman's been above that in every game this year He's at 30.7 for the season and at least 32 and a half percent of the targets for four straight games He's getting downfield work. I think he's a great play if we can get to him But i'm gonna just talk about josh downs where we're talking about this offense. I think he's really interesting at 61 20.2 target share in his active games 22.1 in games with at least a 30 percent snap share um Not the best ad-op, but he's getting some downfield work 1.8 targets per game Coming off of a 13 target game I think he's one of the better plays Uh at receiver under 6500 So I think there are three colts in play with moss for sure pitman for sure if I can get there and downs Looking like maybe the best value receiver to me and some Depending on how I view it Where are you with moss and do you think you'll play either receiver? Um, I think the receiver's kind of running the same issue we talked about with other guys Like I like pitman a lot. I think I've come a long way on him Um, he's getting he's allowed to get downfield work now, which is weird So I like him. Um, I just don't know if I'll get there because I won't stack this game Um downs I might because of the salary, but like I'm not going to prioritize him. It'd be more so like I've got 61 left. Sure. I guess kind of thing for him Um with zack moss every lineup. Yay or nay Yay, yeah, yeah, I think that's where I settle in as well Like I think we just kind of have to and I'm fine with that like He'll be very popular, but not all of dfs is about being different. You can be different elsewhere You've got a lot of other slots in your lineup. So I think that's we're all settled with moss and I'm pretty happy to use him. Um, and I think that downs Could get there, but not going to prioritize him just because I don't think he's the most efficient player because of the adot So that's that's my main hang up with him personally I'm not going to fight you this time You could be right. It's okay. All right. You can be right in that. I will use him And then when he flops, I can be right and saying that he's not good Okay, let's start with my second trend here and talk about what skill players are done against the browns this year Because chyron williams usage last week was phenomenal Uh, basically like cmc level, but his salary is $1,300 lower The problem for williams is he's facing the browns this week and that's Unarguably the best defense in football Is it inarguably or un inarguably, right? Whoops. Poof. Okay. Inarguably best defense football. Good job, Jim Not that I like work with words for a living So I want to like dig in here and just see if we can justify williams $8,500 the browns have led up Just 19 points per game defensively this year They led up 10 or fewer points four separate times two of those were the first within the first three games of the year But you know But as a result only twice is a non quarterback hit 20 fan dual points against them this year And nobody has had more than 20.5 that 20.5 point game was jailed war in two games ago It's part of a recent down tick in the browns rush defense They now ranked sixth against the rush based on number fires schedule adjusted metrics and their Two worst games in early downs have come the past two games against the sears and the broncos Sears ranked 12th in rushing efficiency the broncos 13th and the rams are six Now the browns have faced a brutal schedule this year in terms of rushing defense So it's not like they've benefited from plus matchups, but we have seen some leaks more recently The only super high usage back they faced was macaffery and he got hurt mid game during that one jonathan taylor had 120 yards and scrimmage against them as well So if liliums is tracking you popular, we have lots of reasons to jump off This matchup is very gross. I think it's legitimately very gross But if we can get a guy with his usage as a contrarian tournament play I can probably sign up for that. So where are you on kairan williams considering His insane usage and how rough this matchup is combined altogether so he You know, we had the early pod last week He was the guy that I felt best with Among running backs and I stuck with that and that was nice Because we talked about the workload being really good getting receiving work getting great red zone work With the matchup being what it is this week, I don't quite feel it's not it's not that the salary went up I think 300 and he was 82 last week. It's not that the salary went up. It's the matchup and the offensive expectations are lower He had a much easier matchup, but he's got yardage upside as you mentioned this team this defense can Can give up, you know some some work And again, I keep coming back to the fact that we want all of our players in competitive games I don't think this will be very competitive Which is a bit of a knock but He can also then get added rushing work And I just it's hard to envision Like the ramps starting backed up a ton and not being able to move the ball. They're probably gonna have a couple Possessions to start near midfield and that definitely helps I don't think that williams is He's in consideration for me in my main lineup But I don't quite think that I would get there because the matchup Is that too low? No, I think that's appropriate Yeah Like I would need his rostery to be like 7% like right I don't care about I don't care about that from like a single Entry. Oh, I do main lineup standpoint. I do I guess but I understand where coming from Like if it's 7% and I can Use a guy with his usage without Be with while like differentiating from the pack quite a bit. I do find that pretty attractive. So Um, if I get a read that he'll be very low rostered. I can see myself going there instead, but Instead of instead of Like macaffery, I guess I don't know if I can do chiron plus tyreek That I guess that would be the the counterpoint and that's that's what you're in. Yeah. Yeah If it comes at the expense of one of those two because I probably want one of those two in every lineup, basically If it comes at the expense of those two then I don't really care about his roster rate, I guess So that's if I'm allocating salary to running back. I just needed to be macaffery at that rate And if I'm playing chiron, then it also Bumps me off of and it's only chiron plus hill then I'll do it then I'm okay with it But if it cost me both tyreek and and uh cmc, then I then I'm out, but yeah, would you flex? Chiron or aj brown I think you might have asked me this earlier and I might contradict myself I don't think I I don't think that I did but I might have Depends on game stack. No, I said I think I said chiron versus a manra. Oh, yeah, that was chiron. Um, aj brown's tougher Like if I have macaffery, I'm going while I probably won't have macaffery. Well, I might I don't know Um, if I have macaffery, I'm probably going aj brown. I might go aj brown regardless Would you consider flexing a receiver this week? Yeah, I did I did last week too. Um, but running back's a lot better this week, I guess so It's deeper, but in terms of Sure, like quote-unquote sure things. I think yeah, I guess like there isn't really a range right prefer receiver because like I prefer Chiron over a manra not aj brown. I prefer rachad white over the mid 7000 range receivers. I prefer Javante over every guy. I prefer more of a chlorine too Um, yeah, so I think that's the the issue there. So would be open to it, but I don't think it'll happen. I guess All right, let's talk about weather for this week. There's nothing to discuss. It's pretty great So let's move on to the positional plays and go position by position and break down our top plays On fan dual four this week starting off with you brand and where you going at quarterback this week Uh, jaylen hurts. I really want to try to get there in my in my primary lineup It's pretty solid passing season 245 yards 1.6 touchdowns completion percentage over expectation of plus 5.3 percent I checked out davante smith and aj brown both at a double digit catch rate over expectation Which is a little scary, but it's also just very sick. Uh, a few just for opponents faced Hertz is really good at a plus 0.10 He does have a tough matchup this week top five adjusted pass defense But in four games against top 10 pass defenses 209 passing yards per game But 1.8 touchdowns still again with good opponent adjusted efficiency But almost 12 carries almost 40 yards per game on the ground plus one and a half rushing touchdowns You can get the hurts this week. I think you should try to do it in a lot of cases I think you have alternatives And for me, I think the first place I'm going to look is cj stroud At a salary of 8,000 just really really good To me still a good matchup. I'm not really adjusting for what the broncos have been doing You know, no win this week for him. I know whether it's pretty good overall, but You know denverse 24th and just the past defense on the full season Stroud's averaged almost 300 passing yards in 1.7 touchdowns per game with plus efficiency And he's only played four defenses 20th or worse. So if you still consider that the broncos are Not great um that that checks out but In those games 352.8 yards per game and 2.3 touchdowns. So he has the ability To put to pull out the flamethrower in the right matchups and this game could be back on fourth as well So I think there are different paths for stroud to have a big game You talk motivation before too and like both these teams are in the playoff on like fighting each other for the playoffs So I think that makes it a little bit juicier as well I do think that uh hurts is a top guy I've thought a lot about this and I I'm gonna stick with him as my top guy because like the touch pushes are just like such a cheat code for for dfs like again, he's averaging a rushing touchdown per game this year And I think that's something that's undersold by optimizers because like you can't really project that I guess like you can But like most people don't project it very well So I think he'll be under rostered relative to where he should be and also last week he ran for 65 yards That's the most he's done since his knee injury So I think he's healthier now than he was before teams prefer to attack the niners through the air I think that's a good thing in terms of passing volume I there's slight home underdogs. Just good for uh good for passing volume two So I think that hurts is going to be the number one guy Number two I am going to go to uh over cj stroud thought about it more and like I just think this matchup is too good to pass up and also You look at two as game logs and they're pretty underwhelming recently So I don't think we'll see two at like a super high roster rate. Maybe we do maybe people are you know Less point chasing than they've been but like that's what my research has shown is people love to chase points And you're not doing that with two us. So I think that we know where to stack him It's a good game in terms of uh passing expectation I don't really need to run it back if I don't want to I can go with two a plus Pass catcher and then have many game stacks elsewhere I think that's pretty attractive for me this week. So Like if you ask me right now, I'm going to go hurts one two or two Stroud three The Brock lobster four. I think that's that that's the only guys I'm really really considering for this week. I think right now I'm with you. Alrighty. Let's go down to running back then. What's you going with air? Christian McCaffrey, um, I don't think you can really Argue against McCaffrey in any situation, especially in a game that could be competitive for once So You know, we have the like spoiler alert Zach Moss is a love. So he has some salary freed up Not using that to get to McCaffrey. I think is a mistake not necessarily in every lineup, but If that's not something we're trying to do actively, I think it's just Wrong, honestly Uh 17 and a half carries 5.3 targets per game over 120 scrimmage yards Only three other backs in the main slate of average even 100 scrimmage yards He's got an 81 snap rate over a 50 red zone opportunity share Don't want to overthink it and don't want to move away from McCaffrey Even for someone like Tyree kill. So I'm picking one. It's going to be McCaffrey over hill Though I think both are very justifiable second love. I'm gonna I probably had Richard white in my loves for I don't know like half the season at least but I understand it like He gets a ton of receiving work and this this week. He's got a great great rushing matchup at a salary of 7500 Uh, caroline is just the best overall running back matchup according to pretty much any metric, but That's kind of needed for white their offensive line doesn't rate out. Well, I think they're bottom eight and like Run block great according to pff. But you know, his efficiency metrics aren't good He still hasn't lost work because of it. He's just getting a lot of targets as well 4.2 per game 84 scrimmage yards per game. You want that a little bit higher, but A sort of near elite red zone share to 37 percent of the total teams red zone plays go into him Moderate salary great matchup. I think we're shod Definitely stands out and then I mean we talked so much about Zach Moss already, but just a reminder almost 130 scrimmage yards per game And games is like a featured back so not gonna Say much more, but For me Zach Moss is in every lineup. Yeah, I think I'd agree with that as well I had McCaffrey is my top player running back, but you went through him So I'm thinking I'm gonna pivot and hear and talk about Devin singletary a bit because we did get a comment I think it's a good comment from William on youtube saying that it's it's kind of absurd to Consider singletary the better play than Warren Given the matchup and like I get that William totally fair that to have reservations because Devin singletary is not like an elite football player Um, the reason that I'm here is that Denver actually ranks lower against the rush than Arizona does for the full year They're 30 at the Arizona 29th. So the matchup actually pretty much neutral between those two guys and then Singletary isn't a team with a higher implied total. He is at home. He's playing endorses are good things and He did play an 81 snap rate last week with Damian Pierce being back And now it's a better rushing matchup. Maybe he does lose work to to pierce That's why I'm not going to singletary and cash games But for tournaments, I do think there is enough there to give him pretty strong consideration So I understand why you wouldn't want to do this. That's totally valid totally fair But for me with the way my process works I want guys who are on good teams and I think that tech the Texans are a better team So I do think he's a good place. So I understand your reservations. They're totally valid and fair That's why I do think that singletary is a pretty solid play for this week I also like the running back on the other side of that game and that guy is givante williams givante williams salary is $6600 and he helps me get up to christian mccaffrey alongside zack boss this week Williams has played Five games the snaps being elevated and in those games He's at 18.4 carries per game and 3.8 targets per game He has more adjust opportunities or carries plus 2x targets per game and all but three guys on the slate in their most row and sample Hasn't had the efficiency and he might not get that here given the Texans are a lot better against the rush than they are against the pass But the salary here is very good. $6600 gets me access to a game. I like a lot So I think there'll be a decent number of linux where I have Players at running back on both sides of this game dead in singletary paired with givante williams in order to get myself access To mccaffrey, maybe well, I guess I wouldn't do that because it means I wouldn't have moss but like Nilsson get access to harry kale. I'm gonna take that so givante williams Pretty fun play for this week despite the fact he has not been efficient so far this year My third love is also zack moss. I don't see how you don't make him. They love for this week $5600 facing the Texans who have not been as lethal as back against backs recently Ever since the kevin byer trade they've taken a dip against running back. He's very good against the run So I think that actually is a significant 22.3 carries and 2.5 targets per game from moss It is gains to lead back with a 57 red zone share So he's getting kyred williams workload for $5600 I'm gonna take that so every lineup. I'm gonna have uh, zack moss in it for this week Wide receiver. What you going with there? I have both both eagles guys I was gonna lean smith but Do you have a g brown in your loves? Nope. Go ahead. Okay. I'm gonna go to a g brown I thought he'd be harder to get to in terms of salary, but you can definitely do it and brown Without dallas goddard Just underperforming almost uh, I talked about his catch rate over expectation being plus 10 percent I think it's like plus 10 and a half percent on the season So mine is 9.9 percent without goddard. The yardage is abysmal And it's not that nobody will play him It's just that He's still a really good player with a good workload and a lot of ability in a game that He should be leaned on pretty heavily so I'm fine with smith But you can get to brown and I I want to make sure I am overweight So by what I mean by that is I want brown to be on a higher percentage of my lineups than on the Like the the public percentage of lineups because I I'm really warm enough to age your brown this week. So I think you talked me into into brown Quite a bit, but again, I have no issues with davante smith just I think it might be an age of brown week second love It's tough I have terry mccloren I think he's the best play in the 6000 range, especially above 62 if I just say it that way I Maybe I should prefer coreland sotten, but There's going to be volume here If the game plays out the way that it does and and washington already throws a ton terry mccloren 21 target share on the full season 20 percent In three games with kurta samuels since he returned in the lineup I know like that's been a kind of a fluky sample, but Point being he's the he's like the main guy almost always over a large sample He's got a solid a dot over 11 yards Good like good downfield work per game 3.7 targets in this span And if you just wait his target numbers, he's like 11 and a half per game I think I think it's very defensible To go to terry mccloren, especially if you're playing tyree kill This week, but my third love josh downs 6100 I'm going back there. I don't care what jim says I like exact moss I would even consider potentially playing downs with moss if I needed to because I think they're just two of the best value plays of the week Titans again Kind of a funnel defense downs coming off of a 13 target game Caught five for 43, but three red zone targets and a downfield look In games where he's played at least half the snaps 22 target share for 7.7 targets per game With receiver being bad overall I will take josh down to 6100 Uh, I do want to say you can build a lineup with tyreek and mccaffery. I just did it. There are some Reprehensible things in there, but you know, you got to do what you got to do So I'm willing to try it and I will do so which is why tyreek hill is my top love at wide receiver for this week Jalen waddle has been healthier since they're out by week And so that's what I want to view as their most relevant sample is what they've done since the biweek with with waddle being healthier And in those games waddles at a 25 target. That's better than what he was at before the biweek But tyreek hill is at 36 percent despite missing some time in both those games Like he's been off the field for a bit. He has a 60 deep target share and a 50 red zone share How how is that possible? And now he gets to face a doggy do washington commander's defense I can potentially use him with mccaffery if I have one lineup might just do it might uh go full scent and try to jam that in So it does require some tom foolery, but like i'm i'm open to that so Uh tyreek hill great play if I have two single entry lineups He'll be in one with mccaffery being in the other if I can't wind up if I can't justify doing both My second love is debo. Um, his salary is pretty moderate at 73 and I like iukah lots. I want to emphasize that again, but In the the fully healthy gains this year for all the guys, uh samuels at three carries and 6.6 targets per game 75.8 yards from scrimmage per game with a 14.6 red zone share like for a receiver Those are very very good numbers and you're getting access to a very good game at a low salary That's what worked last week in the the bill's eagles game was divante smith gave davis lowest salary to access to this game So like I think that's your justification for going debo plus divante. Maybe that's the router. Maybe it's I don't really want to use deandre swift anymore at 67, but like you could potentially justify it. Um, so I think that's a good approach and debo does that this week So I really like iuk and I want to get there, but I'm receptive to debo as well Let's talk about james and williams again This is the tom fool where you got to do in order to jam in tyreek plus mccaffery, but He has a path to a big game his salary is 5200 dollars on the slate where I need savings he said a 60 snap right now in consecutive games and I think it's worthwhile to keep Doing this until the salary goes up or until we don't need the savings and I need the savings this week I think it's very much a stars and shrubs kind of week I'd rather spend down for williams than use the pretty underwhelming 6000 range at wide receiver So I think he's in play I understand if you don't want to do it. That's fine But I think it's worthwhile for this week of 52 given the way that game sets up tight end what you go into there So we have the same two loves so I'm going to pivot both of them Yeah, and just with the caveat that I think that jim's two are my top two, but uh, george kiddle It's really easy to forget about him in a great game, but in games with kiddle iuk and samuel active He's at a 17 target share um 1.8 downfield targets per game decent Red zone numbers but 44 of the end zone targets and again Philly's just kind of susceptible. They haven't faced a lot of targets Or a lot of like a high target per out rate to tight ends, but they've been a little bit susceptible And george kiddle has He's the guy with the juice this week at tight end Same reason we want to play tyreek same reason we want to play christ mccaffrey is they have the it factor within the position Kittle has it as well and it's easy to forget that A second love then would be uh, juan johnson At 4900 if you're just kind of okay Saying kiddle is not going to you know burn me nobody else really is either juan johnson is very defensible at a salary of 4900 and a pretty good game Against the troit. He led the saints in routes had seven targets last week um A lave might play i might even prefer if a lave plays Trying to go it out. Yeah, you know improve the efficiency, but Johnson very strongly a consideration for me in my in my main lineup Like even if a lave does play they still don't have uh, rashid jahid or michael thomas like yeah That that's still fine. So I agree with you that he's still in play even if we do Get a lave out there my first love the one you alluded to is uh, tasam hill At the same came at the same position actually Yeah, um, but 6500 for a guy with his path to his ceiling is pretty enticing He had seven rush attempts last week and he's now averaging 5.2 carries and 2.8 targets per game for the full season We know his roles gotten better as the year has gone along He's had good red zone usage the one counterpoint there would be lost a fumble inside the red zone last week when I had the saint's money line So I should hate him and I kind of do but um I still think he's well worth 6500 dollars for this week. So tasam hill I think it's a good week to to use him at tight end on fan duel this week Other guy I've got is pet fryer mooth. Um, you know, I if if if dallas goddard plays his source 55 I'd probably go there, but I don't think he'll play now. So if he plays I'll go there but fryer mooth had 11 targets last week three of those were deep And he came through on that volume two. I think he had like 16 fan duel points with no touchdown, which is absurd The total is rising in this game Arizona's defense is pretty bad. So 5800 dollars. I think pat fryer mooth is a good play So I would say consideration set at tight end is kiddle um, tasam hill joan johnson fryer mooth and maybe brevin jordan or goddard if he plays Like I use jordan the In the hill plus mccaffrey. I assumed you did. Yeah. Well, here we are. Uh defense. What you got there? rams Why? They're either playing joe flacco. Did you see my note at the bottom? No, my my notes for rams defense are joe flacco. That's that's all it says Well, he's not even guaranteed to start, right? He's gonna start. Okay. Well, either way, it's joe flacco pg walker or if It seems like if he clears no, they officially said that flacco is above walker. So it'll be either flacco or a dtr I have a link and a source from not that long ago says flacco is behind but I don't know either way either way It's it's situation where We just they've loaded into the backup Above pj walker below dtr. So dtr can't go I think that's probably yeah. Yeah, I think that's what the confusion was Yeah Readings are regardless. It's rams. Yeah Anybody else Uh, I will use I don't play a hundred percent rams. I will use the texans at six at 35 to save $200 Like their home favorites against an offense that's been better, but still not elite by any means. Um, I Oh boy, I'd be okay What's the Steelers defense at probably too high for me. I assume Oh 49 my gosh, why are you thinking? I thought I might be like well, they're not like huge favorites So I thought maybe I'd get some relief there Um, yeah, it's probably just those two honestly. I don't know Would you use like the I might use the titans like I was gonna say the titans or oh no, I'm using moss just kidding. No, yeah I might use titans Uh, yeah, it's probably just those honestly Feels bad, but that's defense. Yep If I'm good luck with defense this year, I'm gonna that luck will drive very soon And I'm excited for it to be this week when I use only two defenses and they'd both flop Any final thoughts for you, Brandon across this entire week 13 main slate probably just It's it's late in the year now Keep track of injuries things are going to change There's probably going to be plays that we get to that we didn't even mention here because things open up Yeah, so I try to tweet about them when that happens like I won't say like I'm using this guy. I'll like tweet like uh, oh, here's a usage reason like as a pacheco Last week I was like, hey, snap rate was higher when ceh is out like, you know, I'll try to tweet about it But I think that's the way to go. All right That is all that we have here for today on the dfs side of things once and thoughts on Thursday night football Tom Becchio broke down that over on covering the spread on prime time Tom find that in the covering the spread podcast feed a full nfl week 13 betting preview with myself and dr. Ed feng coming up later on today player props with jj Zacharyson tomorrow on the covering the spread podcast feed the fandall youtube page and fandall tv plus where you can also find this show along with the daily iso Uh and covering the spread all over on the fandall tv plus app or fandall dot com Slash watch brandon if people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at goodwill 13 gd Ula 13 i'm on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your dfs lineups. We'll talk to you once again. Monday to recap all the action This has been the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fan dual podcast network