 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour, every trading day live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now toll free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour. Now, Tom Antt, Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, appreciate you growl at a problem with us out here. We have the Dow Industries up 105, NASDAQ up 45, S&Ps up 6.5, Gold contract down $7.60, trading at 12.75 an ounce. We have Silver down 27 cents, $14.28 an ounce, Lightsweak crude up 30 cents, $58.93 a barrel, notes and bonds. They just continue higher folks, they get the volume behind the move, they get the price behind the move, we get the 10-year right now up 9 ticks, $125.05, that's yield in the 2.3, 2.29, that's where we're on the 10-year right now. That looks like it wants to get into this 2% area, which is pretty amazing. 30 years, 30 years up 19 ticks, $151.18 and $Kingdollar, $Kingdollars up 203 ticks, trading 97.680, that failed on price last week, it's going up on light volume today, the euro is at 111 to 1 US dollar, the yen is at 109.56, the pound is at 120.71. We can only take a look at this 10-year yield, this is pretty amazing and I suspect what we're going to have here folks is this is going to be a pretty fast move. If we go back five days ago, we were at 2.43, you're at 2.29, your next swing point down here is just laying out at 2.01. Bottom line is that we got Memorial Day, you got the end of the month, we'll see whether we get any window dressing, if we go over and take a look at these S&Ps, what we did on Friday is that you had a small bounce, you get up there, light volume, 52 million shares on the way up, we go down on 98 million and bottom line is that we'll see whether we can get into this 285 area right now or 283. Oil bonds, oil's flat, the interest rate mark, it's pretty wild. Yeah, cheap money right, coming at us. It's the 30-year, so picture at 2.3 folks, that is saying that mortgages can actually get down to 4.4, 4.5, which is pretty amazing. Once again, if we go take a look at some of the, so let's see, home prices in U.S. cities decelerated in March for the 12th straight month, suggesting sellers may not have yet fully adjusted to buyer's demand for affordable properties. The S&P CoreLogic Price Case Shiller index of property values increased 2.7% from the year earlier, the slowest, since August 2012, the data shows that was still slightly above estimates from the monthly gain. That's interesting how they put the beginning of it decelerated, but yes, they went up, but not as much as they've been going up, right? Yes, it's been growing a lot faster than it's growing at a slowing rate. Yes, right, right. Sells is still struggling to attract buyers. What you're going to have here, folks, is the way this interest rate structure has come down so dramatically, you'll get some action in that market. Some of the higher volume equities out here, we get the Advanced Micro up at $1.73, trading $28.18, Intel's down a buck. You have, look at that, I don't know what this stock is. Let's see what this is. So this is Aniplan. That is up. So they develop a published cloud platform business applications up $7 right now. They have their earnings this morning, I believe. All time high. Yeah, so their numbers, they expected a loss of 20 cents and they had a loss of 16, revenue 75 million. They get some action, man. That's some big action. And if we go over to the pound, this is going to be interesting to see what happens in the UK. So they had the European elections, pounds right now trading at 126. And it looks like the two major parties with the same took a beating. And what did happen is that the two far ends, right and left, are the ones that did good. So this Brexit deal, folks, is going to get really interesting watching. It's just going to be a hard Brexit. What is it going to actually come down here? Because that's the guy, Neil Farage. Nigel Farage. Nigel Farage, he's the one that basically come out with the most amount of votes, percentage-wise. The biggest night's when it was Nigel Farage, whose Brexit party aims to take the UK out of the UK without waiting to negotiate a deal on the other side to divide the pro-European and liberal Democrats or second international vote, the implications for the future of British politics along both parties. Well, I guess it would. Stay right there, folks. Tell me, Nigel, come right back. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. We have the Dow Industries up 79, NASDAQ up 29, SAPs up 2 and a half. Come right back. The TAS Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. 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So that volume is still continuing. Now, it hasn't got against its lower swing yet, but I suspect it is going to try. And that lower swing point out here is the, well, the day of the strength is 1272. We hit 1275. If we go into the silver market, this thing has been dragging all the metals down. That's the size of break on the silver market. Yeah, quite a move. Yeah, so this, yeah, you're breaking a swing. The volume on the break, real question is, let me just put this up side one. So if we put this on a continuous contract, yeah, it's harder to see actually. Yeah, this is going after its swing lows from 2018, 1386. The high of that is 1440, 1425, we're all right. So that's a little problem child out here. And what's intriguing, of course, is that interest rates are coming down. We have divergence in a big way, because what you do have is that the rates are coming down. The dollar did fail, we're going higher this morning on the dollar, but that's 4,900 contracts, 98085 is the number. Right now, you're at 97,695. We'll see where this shakes out. Some of the, we're talking about David Tep, here it is. We talked about Tep last week. So what this is about is that this is just a little article about shoes that are hard to fill, and it's intriguing here, which I didn't know. So look at this, so the head's funded to see both some of the best money managers on the planet, but good luck investing with them. They're precious few, and it's never clear who they are at the beginning. By the time this skills become apparent, they've already amassed a fortune, no longer need to invest his money. So look at this, Tepr started in 1993, and he started with 57 million. But he closed right after that, soon after that. Doesn't say when fame and money poured in. Those who were invested with Tepr from the start are close to it, never had the opportunity. So what do you see his record? This is pretty amazing. The track record Tepr leaves behind is- Otherworldly. Otherworldly, it must mean good, right? From out of this planet. Out of this planet, okay. Different worlds. Okay. Apollos has returned 25% a year since this inception since 1993. That's amazing. As in nobody on this planet puts up those kind of numbers, you know? Seriously. Yeah. To put that in perspective, a $10,000 investment in 1993 would be worth 3.6 million. Compound at 25%, you're going to have a lot of money over 20, 25 years. Isn't that amazing, man? I mean, it really is. And you're talking about, you know, just if you were all in the market, try to make that kind of money consistently, folks, it's like so- Well, just finish where the comparison. Comparison, the same hypothetical investment in some fund weighted a broad collection of hedge funds worth just 85,000. Look at that. Yeah. And the S&P, Berkshire Hathaway would have been yielded 114 and 277. So S&P would have been 114. Berkshire would have been 277. David Tepper, 3.6 million. Yeah. Best performing mutual fund since 93. Fideli selects software and IT service portfolio worth 476. And that's cherry picking. The best mutual fund in like, you know, any of all industries still only under 25% over that time is just staggering. It is. Because you have big ups and downs, right? I mean, where are the losses? To average that number is just staggering. Yeah. So let's see. Like many Alidia managers, Tepper showed some unusual traits. One is the foresight to put performance ahead of fees. Apple has returned money to investors in eight of the last nine years, according to institutional investor, continued the long-standing policy to register capital to its investors in order to maintain a size that he could maximize returns. Yeah, that's a big one. Yeah. Yeah. He ranks 120 on the Bloomberg in millibilias index of the estimated net worth of 11.2. Tepper also has a knack for knowing when to take big risks. Apple also was seven times more volatile than the H. I think that's the hedge fund index they were referencing up until, yeah. From 1993 to 2014, as measured by annualized standard deviation, three times more volatile than the S&P 500 twice as volatile as Berkshire Hathaway stock. But the more of that volatility can be attributed to Apple's ups and downs than only to its ups, then its downs. Oh. Yeah. Only to Tepper's purchased. Pension for making deeply contrarian bets. Look at that. And the aftermath of dot-com bust, Google-focused estimates that Tepper was down 25% and 22, roughly a night with the S&P. But when the recovery took hold the following year, Tepper was up 149% or 120 percentage points more than the market. Yeah, so market must have been up 29% staggering in its own right. But he picked the guys that were going to rebound pretty substantially. And so look at this next one, too. In 2008, he was down 28, 7% in 2008, 10 percentage points more than the S&P. Better, no, better than. Not more, because the S&P would have been down 37, though, so better. Better than the S&P. When the market recovered, he was up 133% or 106 percentage points. This is just amazing. More than the market, yeah. Yeah. I don't love it, man. The numbers are staggering, man. They are. That's over the length of time. Yeah. I mean, and the number of boom and busts you've had in there. Yes. Yeah, for a variety of reasons, too. You have the tech bubble. You have the real estate collapse, mortgage crisis, bank crisis, whatever you want to call it. Right. Yeah, and he nailed them all, almost. Exactly. You don't love it, man. 877-927-6648. Let's go take a look at this S&P. So what I expect we're going to see here, folks, this S&P is building cars for the next leg down. I don't expect this to actually come about, though, until beginning of June, because this is a short week. You've got window dressing coming at the end of this week. So it looks to me like we're going to get more sideways movement. What we definitely have is that we still have folks and traders on vacation for the long weekend. You can see we didn't kick off with Kevin Hinks this morning, because guess what? People are still getting back from vacation over this long weekend. Good for him. Hopefully he's enjoying some Florida sunshine today before heading back to Chicago. Yeah. And if we take a look at this S&P, the bottom line, this looks to me like you're building cars to get into this right now at 2833, but this 2713 is game. That would be the next leg down. If we go into the NDX 100, setting up basically the same way, what we had done last Thursday, you go lower with 43 million shares. You were going into that 67 million. Friday, you go up on 25 million. Today, we're 5.5. So we'll get a little bit more than that. I don't think it's going to be that much more. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. 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So what this story is about is that Amazon is poised to unleash long-theod purge of its small suppliers. When we go through this, though, what you're going to see, which is pretty wild, folks, so the next headline, I think there's thousands of boom and pop people lose their bulk orders, was pretty incredible. Do you know what they consider a small seller? I heard the story, I like it. 10 million. Yes. 10 million in gross sales as a small seller. Probably annually, right? Yes. Yeah. So what's happening here, well, here, let's go through this. Two months ago, Amazon halted orders from thousands of suppliers with no explanation, panic ensued until the orders quietly resumed weeks later, with Amazon suggesting the pause was part of a campaign to weed out counterfeit products supplies free to the side of relief. Now, a large or a permanent purge is coming that will upend the relationship between the world's largest online retailer and many of its long-time vendors. In the next few months, bulk orders will dry up for thousands of mostly small suppliers, according to three people familiar with the plan. Amazon's aim is to cut cost, focus wholesale purchasing on major brands like Procter & Gamble, Sony, Lago. That will ensure that the company still is adequate supplies in order to merchandise and help it compete with Walmart, Target, and Best Buy. Now, the mom and pops have long relied on Amazon for a steady stream of orders that will have to learn a new way of doing business. So when you cut to the chase on this, folks, you know, it's amazing. Look at how long they've been doing it. So yeah, yeah, go ahead. No, it's one of the biggest shifts in Amazon's e-commerce strategy since it opened to independent sellers 20 years ago. So what it has to do with really is just the bulk ordering. We haven't really gotten into that, so it's just that Amazon's not gonna order bulk orders from these small suppliers anymore. You're still gonna be able to sell your products on there, but they're gonna get a very limited supply. Amazon's gonna buy a very limited supply from you, and then they're gonna buy a very limited supply again, as opposed to buying a bulk order from you, and then it's not gonna be buying bulk from smaller suppliers anymore, which is how they do everything almost right now. Right, they're gonna have the supplier hold the product, basically, because this gets into it more the aspect of how they're switching out their supply chain, basically. And of course, this is just from three spokesmen, but I can see how that can fly. Amazon secures inventory two ways. The company buys product directly from wholesale vendors, reselling them like a traditional retail store, unless independent merchants post their products on the site in the marketplace model familiar similar to eBay, or consignment shop. About half of the goods sold on Amazon come from independent merchants, and the change will push the marketplace share of revenue even higher. Yeah, so less independent. Yeah. More of the Amazon marketplace type. There's another upside for Amazon by forcing many existing wholesale vendors to sell their product directly to consumers. The company holds less inventory, reducing the risk that it gets stuck with unsold, merchandise, moreover, Amazon can collect a commission on each sale a vendor makes and charges them a fee to store, pack, and deliver their products, boasting profits. Generally speaking, vendors selling less than 10 million products each year on the site will no longer get wholesale orders from Amazon, although that will vary by category so the people will request an autonomy to speak about the internal matters. Pretty wild, man. Yeah. It's pretty wild that 10 million is considered as small on Amazon. Yeah, that didn't hit me too hard as surprising only because, I mean, they account for like half of every internet sale, you know, and if you're only doing $5 million on a platform that's half of every internet sale in the country, you know? I mean, you're probably not hitting, you could sell almost anything, right? And if you're delivering it to the mass markets. As in, we all know, you search for an item on Amazon, you're usually, there's 100 different kinds of that same item, but you just want that one item at the top. Right. So you're either at the top or you're not. You know, I've told you about, I'm friends with one guy who runs a business, does a similar deal. You're either at the top or you're not. You know, you better not be second or third. Right. Because there's a lot. Is that the effiltration, man? There's a lot, a million different things. Oh, I see. Yeah, but you better be at the top of, because you're looking for a cheap item and there's very, very similar items. And it's just like a Google search. You know, there's a lot of things on Google that'll probably explain to you the same exact thing you're looking for. If you're past the first page, zero. You know? Yeah. Pretty intense. Yeah. No doubt, man. You know, if we go overseas, let's go take a look at overseas. So last night you had Shanghai go sideways. And what's happening, of course, what they're trying to trade deals is that the, let's just see first. So this went up 17 bucks last night. Well, that's pretty good. Okay. So we had some volume here. That's a little pop. Slight pop. So that means that Shanghai can actually, you know, get up maybe even to 2986 and right now you're 2909. The Dachs in Germany, that's going sideways out here this morning. Merkel, I guess, she's looking at her top protege. I guess she's decided now that this is not gonna be one of her successes. Okay. She put her in line for it, but this story out here, so they had their vote over the weekend, the whole European Union. Yes. And evidently a lot of the leading, well, they would be the leading parties, didn't do as well as they thought. In this case, Merkel has given up hope on her heir apparent as in his hunkering down an office to face the growing turmoil in Germany's ruling party. The, Yeah. So even to dig into it, because it started last week. So you have, since taking over as leader of the Christian Democratic Union in December, maybe we'll get this name, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, slid in the opinion polls and then roiled the party with a failed effort to accelerate Merkel's exit. That was being reported last week. Yeah. And on Sunday oversaw their worst ever result in the national election. So there's a couple of things going in there. All that persuaded Merkel that Kramp-Karrenbauer may not be up to the job according to two officials. As a result, the chancellor is more determined than ever to stay in power until her term ends in 2021. Yeah. You try to take out the boss and it doesn't work. That's right. That's right. That's crazy. Yeah. Especially because she put her in, but anyway. Maybe she saw some of that turmoil coming down the line in the elections and maybe she tried to edit off with putting some of that blame on Merkel. I'm sure there's some politics at play there. Oh yeah. Yeah. We take a look at Apple, Apple down 62 cents, 178.37. And Nike. So there's a story out there today that bottom line is that retaliation, two companies that could be on the hit list here in China and both of them doing extensive amount of business in China is Nike and Apple. The CEO of Huawei came out and said that he would, let's see if I can find this, because he said no, he wouldn't like that tech because that's their major competitor. I'm sorry. What did he say though? He was saying they interviewed him on Bloomberg, right? Yes. This is Huawei, right? Yes. They asked him about, you know, the rumor is that Apple could be on the hit list. Okay. Well I'd be against that even though they're my largest competitor in China. I don't think that that is the way to go in the trade world. Did he say why? I'm just curious if they're the biggest competitor. He didn't, I know. Okay. Believe me. Yeah. 877-927-6648 Dow up 33 Nasdaq up 14, S&P down two and a half, come right back. If you were in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. 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As companies await China's next move, there's uncertainty about what formal retaliation may take companies might just have to read the tea leaves on how their business operations are being treated. Erwin and a senior vice president of US-China Business Council said an interview with Bloomberg Television, that'd be pretty hard to read what a politician is gonna do to you. Yeah, yeah. China could use the template to get home in 2017 when relations with South Korea deteriorated over Seoul's decision to deploy a missile shield. The government curb travel to South Korea, hurting cosmetics companies that rely on Chinese tourists, while local authorities shut most of the laudy shopping companies, China stores, alleging fire safety violations, consumers boycotted South Korean products dealing a devastating blow to Hyundai motors. There's a lot at stake as China's fastest growing consumer market is the top priority for US giants looking for growth. The most obvious target is Huawei's smartphone rival, Apple, which gets about a fifth of its revenue from China. That's a big number. And manufacturing iPhones there, the California-based company has already begun suffering in the region, seeing sliding revenue as consumers buy more products from Huawei and other local brands. Yeah. And so here's the... Think if you scroll down a little bit, it's a bluff. So Huawei's finding Ren... Zengfei? Zengfei took the high ground in an interview with Bloomberg Television saying China shouldn't punch Apple. If that does happen, the ability to add it, I'd be the first to protest. He probably knows because China figure out why, right? So he took the high ground. He doesn't want to escalate things. I'm guessing it's because if China punches Apple, Trump and America's probably going to punch Huawei even harder. Totally. So it's in his personal interest. If there's one company out there that's probably even hurt the most, it's probably Huawei and the whole world by the straight war. So he doesn't want to see things escalate from a personal perspective. Yeah. There's no doubt. You get married international. They're growing by leaps and bounds. They're going to open 30 hotels in China this year and have more than 300 hotels planned. Yeah, more than half the total in the Asia Pacific. Right. Now the difference is, and here you see it, is that married folks is a management company. So it's a flag company. They plant the flag, do a great job managing it. And in this particular case here, you're going to see that most of those hotels are going to be owned by Chinese though. Yes, so. Yeah, almost all the hotels are managed and owned by Chinese, making the case that it's an American brand run as a Chinese company in that country. And then of course you got Nike, man. Yes. Now they sponsor, I guess, let's see. Nike's, China has increased the important market for Nike. They're sponsoring the Shanghai Marathon and the two top Chinese, no. And the top Chinese soccer league. And the quarter that ended Greater China revenue soared 24% and 19th consecutive quarter of double-digit gains. Pretty intense, man. Yeah. And they all, let's see. And you got prescription down there as well. Yeah, prescription drugs, right? China's regulators ease restriction on drugs from overseas. A few companies have benefited, few companies have benefited more than Merck. That's HPV vaccine. Yeah, Gardasil. Yeah, and the cancer drug in the first quarter helped fuel, that's a big number, 58% leap. China sales $725 million. That's, man, when you get $725 million sales in China and the one is at, is it seven to one? That's pretty intense. No, for sure, yeah. And then they keep going down in terms of Avengers and so forth. Oh, that's right. The Hollywood industry, it's been talked about. I mean, if you want a mega film, you better be able to put up numbers in China these days. Right, right. Yeah. And they like the Avengers evidently. Yeah. The American, Captain America and Iron Man have big fans in China, yeah. Yeah, there you go, $600 million, the end game alone in China. That's April. That's a big number, man. Definitely. It's gonna be a while watching where this whole thing shakes out, folks, there's no doubt. We'll see, because over the weekend, this is, you know, you got the 25% tops on, but this quote's over the weekend with Trump saying, hey, I can go up higher. Okay. Which you can. Yeah. Man. Yeah. That's about as intense as you got. Yeah. Let's go take a look at the X, actually, let's go to the GDX first. So the silver market continues to get smoked. You know, they're not selling basically the GDX out here today. You got 15 cents lower. This silver market though, man. I mean, it looks like, you know, you got Pan American silver and six months, it's down from 15 to 10, 1044. This normally was always a nice strong stock. And you know, I understand, you know, it's going against these 2016 levels with light of all, but none of them have held price. That's kind of, that's been the problem period. Heckler is like going after it's 2000 and low level, which is just amazing, but it is what it is. This keeps going. It does. I mean, look at this, this broke that dollar 45. That was the low of 2016. And when you bring this back, it's like, you know, this is the first stock that I've seen as game to that 2008 level of 98 cents, which is pretty intense. It's like, okay, so it, when I look at that, I'm trying to figure out, is that going to be the industrial deal because silver really is a base metal that's used in manufacturing a lot. So is this the China war that manufacturing is going to slow down that dramatically that they don't need any silver at all? Maybe that's the case. You know, we go take a look at the GLD. If we stay, there's definitely divergence between this, you know, the GLD, there's no sellers there, well, 68 cents, you get lower, lower price. But when you take a look at some of these gold equities, you know, we're certainly not at the 2008 levels. Yeah. In fact, you know, I had the gold report out today and there were no buys in it, but if one buy would be there, it'd be barric. And the reason that I basically was saying no buys is that we need some strength in this thing, man. Not just barric itself, just in general, but you can see what barric has done is that it's come back to real strength in 2018. Last week, it rejected lower price at the $1,175. Today, we did it at $1,770, and the last swing point is $1,152. The positive inside that gold market is that royal gold, as well as Frank on Nevada, those continue to be the strongest gold stocks and they're both royalty stocks, you know? So it's like, okay, most times what you have there, folks, if that's the case, that's then physical gold has a probability of going higher. You know, you can see when you look at these, and then, I mean, there's a total disconnect here between, look at this, I mean, is that 2008? Yes. That's sick. So, if you look at Frank on Nevada, that was $9, you're $73, you know? There's a big disconnect here. Yeah. And it's the silver disconnect, which is, I think, a problem for the metals. Dow, Dow Industries up 25, NASDAQ up 14, SAP down four, four and a half, come right back. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. ["Think or Swim"] Folks, we have the dial up 21, now it's like a 12. S&P's down four and a half. As you come over to our website, folks, at TFNN, this is your last shot at getting a Tiger Doll sale. Bottom line, this is gonna end this afternoon. We put it up for another day because Friday... Yeah, we were down for most of the morning, our stream, unfortunately. So people might have been logging on. It was unfortunate that it was kind of the last day of business with the sale, so we'll extend it through today. And there are some people who signed up over the weekend. So I encourage subscribers out there with school report, market insights, mastering probability, Fibonacci, whatever you got. Go get some Tiger Dolls. You can get up to a 40% bonus available in three options, whether it's 500, 1,000, or 1,500. And we've doubled the bonuses. So after today, it will be 10, 15, or 20%. 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You know, that gasoline number came in that build last week and that's gonna make a difference. If you take a look at Exxon Chevron, they're both headed to low price. Exxon's off this $84 area to $73. Stay right there, folks. We have a fast market coming up next and we got our mammoth, the Bowser Chapman, Steve Rhodes, Dave White, thanks for coming. Thanks, man. Well, look at him, folks.