 Welcome to Nintendo Prime. I'm actually going to do something. I don't typically do very often and I'm going to throw out some predictions. Now these predictions aren't without merit because anyone who's watched my channel long enough knows I love data. I love looking at data. I love analyzing data. And right now some of the data we have for this holiday period is very, very interesting. Things like as an example, there was over a million sell-through of physical games in the UK during the sales period of Black Friday. And in the UK, 38% of those physical sales were just on Nintendo Switch, 9% rise year over year. Absolutely insane. We also know that 3.5 million Nintendo Switches were shipped in October, preparing for November. And if they shipped at 3.5 million then, I'm assuming they shipped another 3.5 million in November. And this is just for the United States, of course. And we also know the Xbox Series X and S are sold out everywhere. And the PlayStation 5, I mean, doesn't even exist. Or is it just a scalper's paradise at this point? The point is, you can't get your hands on any of the current gen systems, at least in the US. They're sold out. And other things are sold out as well. Let's get into some predictions for who's going to win the NPD of November. That's right. Who's going to win the sales period? Now, I'm not talking worldwide, although I might throw out some general lacking data worldwide predictions. But I'm going to focus specifically on the United States because that is where Nintendo Prime is located. That is where I live. And it is obviously the territory that I personally going to care about the most because it directly affects me. Now, when we look at the sales for November, we know the Nintendo Switch, the Xbox Series X slash S and the PlayStation 5 are all sold out. The Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 have been sold out since launch on November 12th for Xbox and November 12th for PlayStation 5. And obviously the PlayStation 5, or I should say the Nintendo Switch, sorry, the Nintendo Switch Mario Kart bundles are being scalped for $100 plus past MSRP right now on eBay and Amazon and anywhere else that you have secondhand vendors. So yeah, it's like impossible to get your hands on switches right now. So what does that mean? Here's what I think it means for the month of November, which ends today. This is the final day. I mean, technically, these sales numbers could be off. What if like on the last day of November, we see an influx of millions of console sales? And I'm just not considering that in my projections. Now, we will know actual data from the NPD around December 15th, December 16th, somewhere in that range. But what I will tell you right now is I predict Nintendo Switch to well, maybe it's not much of a surprise, I guess we are called Nintendo Prime. You guys are going to scream bias at me. But hold on. Let me explain. I think Nintendo Switch is going to win the NPD for November. That's right. It will be the number one selling hardware this month. And it will be so by quite a bit. It won't really be that close. I'm projecting 3.7 million Nintendo Switch is selling this month. This is on the backs of leftover stock preparing for the holidays with the 3.5 million in October. I'm projecting that about a million and a half of that was still available coming into this month. And then obviously with another 3.5 million or so shipped this month, plus the sellouts. In fact, the bundles were mostly sold out before we even got to Black Friday. I'm projecting that about 3.7 million makes about sense to me. I don't believe that every single unit shipped to the US has been sold out. There's going to be some of you that can go to your local retailers right now and buy a switch. But I do think in most major markets in the US, it is pretty impossible to get one. At least it was as of this last weekend, which was well, you know, Cyber Monday today, Black Friday, whatever. It's pretty hard to get a hold of any gaming hardware right now. But Nintendo Switch did ship out the most units in my opinion, the 3.5 million last month, a likely 3.5 million this month because they did add a new manufacturing line from Sharp. I think that Nintendo Switch is just number one because they were able to get the most units out there. Plus price discrepancies, Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 or 500 switches, 300 and 200 respectively. Now series S could play a role in that. If there was enough series S's out there to meet demand, there isn't. There's not enough of any next gen system to meet demand. Unless, you know, scalpers just decide to go rot in the flames of hell and just actually let consumers buy things at MSRP. Anyways, that's my projection for that. Now, when it comes to PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, here's where the battle gets a little bit more interesting because I am not quite sure who won the MPD. And it seems like you should just landslide PlayStation 5, clearly worldwide this month. PlayStation 5 outsold Xbox Series X slash S. I don't think that's too crazy of a thing to project. I mean, I know VG charts, which has inaccurate data, has the PlayStation 5 slightly ahead of the Xbox Series X, but the Xbox Series X slash S didn't launch in an additional market. The PlayStation hadn't launched in yet because it hadn't reached Europe yet because the launch date for Europe was the 19th, not the 12th, so Xbox had a full week lead there. Okay, I get all that. But PlayStation 5 is out in Europe now. So PlayStation 5 is clearly the best-selling platform in terms of the next gen systems, unless you consider Switch next gen. Anyways, the thing is, I think in the United States, the Xbox Series X slash S slightly outsold the PlayStation 5. And this is literally within margin of error. I am projecting 2.3 million sales for Xbox Series X slash S and just 2.2 million sales for PlayStation 5. And here's what people think. You are just a shill for Microsoft, but hear me out. One, both systems have been sold out. None of them have made enough systems to meet demand. Every system comes out the manufacturing line is sold. That's, we need to be clear about that. Neither of these systems are in stock and are impossible to get in the United States. Two, the Xbox brand has always been popular in the United States. I don't know if it's just because Microsoft is a US-based company or they make games that tend to appeal to the US audience. I'm not exactly sure why it is, but for some reason, the one market Xbox is basically never really had a significant market share loss in is the United States. Even the Xbox one performed extremely well here. In fact, the Xbox one launch was the best launch of an Xbox platform to date until now. And we know Microsoft has already announced the Xbox Series XS S have surpassed that the launch of the Xbox one was about 1 million units. This has passed that. Now, are we going to get exact sales data anyways for Microsoft? No. Will we get some sales data to extrapolate and figure out from the NPD? Absolutely. So, I'm projecting that the Xbox Series XS S has outsold the PlayStation and the home market in the US. I think simply because Microsoft knows the demand of the Xbox brand in the United States and allocated a vast majority of their stock to the US. So again, it's a stock thing. I think they provided more stock to the United States consistently with more and more restocks than they had the PlayStation 5. Now, it's a little hard to figure that out because there's a lot of retailers that will not carry PlayStation 5 in person for COVID reasons, but Microsoft is allowing Xbox Series XS to be carried in person. In fact, my game stop has my local game stop. I set a restock of Series XS every three days like clockwork since launch. Now granted, there's people waiting outside the store before it opens, some waiting overnight to get one. So they're gone before the store opens. But the point is that there has been in-person restocks as well as online restocks. And I feel like that has given Microsoft a slight edge in terms of sales. Now, this does not mean both systems do incredible. I firmly believe, and if these numbers hold true at 2.2 and 2.3 million, these will be the best console launches in PlayStation and Xbox history. So I'm not projecting bad numbers just because I have Nintendo way ahead. My reasons that Nintendo way ahead are twofold, but on the Switch being sold out, just like the other platforms and beyond, Nintendo having manufacturing at a much higher rate than the other platforms have to meet those sellouts or try to prevent them, but have them still happen. Nintendo Switch games are topping all of the charts. If you look at things like Amazon, which is one of the major US online retailers, the top two selling games at the moment for the month of November are Animal Crossing New Horizons, which is sold out, by the way. Think about that. Sold out. Actually, because it's sold out, it fell out of the top two. It's actually at number three, but it's sold out. In fact, Amazon is saying they can't even ship you the game until January 18th. They literally do not expect a restock from Nintendo until January 18th or 17th or so. Isn't that nuts? Obviously, I think Nintendo is going to get them copies before then, and they'll be able to ship them out sometime in December, but Animal Crossing New Horizons is sold out. Now, it has still been available at other retailers. I checked other websites, Best Buy, Target, Walmart. You can still get physical copies of it, but I wonder if their online is actually out and they're just shipping you extra copies that are in some stores. I don't know, but Animal Crossing New Horizons is sold out on Amazon. I didn't think we'd be talking about that a year almost since it launched. That being said, the top two other games, the actual top two games selling are Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity, which launched this month. And would you know? It's Super Mario 3D All-Stars from September. It's still going strong. Super Mario 3D All-Stars can't be stopped, apparently. So, those are the top three selling video games on the entire Amazon website along with the Switch itself. I got to say, it's looking to me like the Switch had the strongest holiday sales period. Again, not a console bias. It's just reality of the situation. Could PlayStation 5 have surpassed, could Xbox Series X have surpassed the Switch if they had four or five million units on store shelves? Possibly. It's incredibly possible that that's the case. Also, it would be nice if that happened because then scalpers wouldn't be charging $1,200 to $1,500 for PlayStation 5's or $1,200 for Xbox Series X's. God dang it, scalpers! Nobody wants me! Nobody likes you! It's calm, though. The point is, these projections are based on solid data that's publicly available, and I think I'm going to be pretty close to accurate on these predictions. The 3.7 million, by the way, for Switch is really out there for sales. I want to give you an idea. The record is $3.5 million for the month of November for any video game system, and that is currently held by the Nintendo Wii in 2009. I'm basically telling you that Switch is going to set a sales record all time at $3.7 million this month, or last month, whenever you watch this video. That is insane that I'm projecting that. But I also think Nintendo's projections of 24 million units sold by the end of fiscal year of 2020-2021 on March 31 is highly inaccurate, and they're going to actually be closer to $26 million. Why is that? Because the Switch just keeps selling. Even in a year where they haven't had a slew of major releases, where they're heavily carried by Animal Crossing, it doesn't matter. Animal Crossing is becoming the fastest selling video game, or one of the fastest selling video games of all time. Not GTA V levels, but could this end up being something that passes something like Red Dead Redemption? It's possible Animal Crossing passes that someday. Animal Crossing is poised by the end of this fiscal year, maybe even by the end of the holidays, although there's going to be a boost for Mario Kart 8. It is poised, I think, by the end of this fiscal year to be the best selling game on Switch, which again would mean selling over 30 million units. So yeah, Switch is doing just great, doing just fine. And as long as Nintendo hits it with major releases next year, which they start off pretty well with, you know, some Monster Hunter Rise actions, some Super Mario 3D World, plus Bowser's Fury, that's just the start of the year. If they hit it out of the park, the rest of the year is all the 35th anniversary, Metroid's 35th anniversary, they get a new Pokemon game out there, or a Pokemon remake or something. Nintendo's going to be sitting just pretty next year too. In fact, so pretty 2021 to 2022 could be an even higher sales year than this current one. Is it possible the Pika Switch isn't actually here yet? Only time will tell. That being said, PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X are going to do fantastic as well. I think the top selling game for PlayStation 5 is going to come out to be Miles Morales. I think that's just a given. It's cheapest. And it's from a popular IP, despite the fact it's also on PlayStation 4. Yes, Demon's Souls is exclusive. I think Demon's Souls is going to fall into the number 2 slot on PlayStation 5 just because it's not a game that has the same sort of appeal as Spider-Man. I do think you're going to see some other games creep up there, just in terms of interest, because there's not a lot there else at launch beyond just normal cross-platform games. You know, some things like Sackboy might get up there in the top five for PlayStation 5 as well. For Xbox Series X, it's going to be Assassin's Creed Valhalla. Probably is the best seller on the platform. Everything else is on game pass for the most part that people are going to be interested in. I do expect to see a report that game pass subscriptions are at the highest they've ever been, increasing from maybe the 10 million they had just a few months ago to 12 or 13 million right now when the MPD report comes out. Now, they don't track that stuff, but I think Microsoft will make some sort of game pass related announcement around the same time the sales data comes out. Beyond that, I think Nintendo Switch's top selling software for the month of November is going to end up being Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity, but it's going to be right behind with Animal Crossing New Horizons and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. I think those are the three top selling titles. They might flip flop and order Age of Calamity. It might be behind Mario Kart 8 because it was bundled in. It might be behind Animal Crossing because that's just the most popular game this year, I feel like. So again, those games might flip order, but those are the top three for Switch. Anyways, I want to thank you guys for tuning in. Thank you so much. If you want individual game sales projections, I have no idea. I'll just throw something out there like Animal Crossing. You know, Animal Crossing sold a couple million. Mario Kart Deluxe sold like 2.2 million. And let's just throw Age of Calamity out there as a 2.5 million seller. Just kind of some random projections. Don't really mean much. You want to go about worldwide launch sales for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X for the month of November. I think worldwide, the Xbox Series X has crossed 3 million, just crossed 3 million, maybe at 3.1 million worldwide. And the PlayStation 5 is more so at 4.5 to 5 million. Again, those are my worldwide projection numbers. We'll find out, of course, soon. Anyways, you guys, let me know what you think about these predictions. Do you enjoy these prediction videos, especially during major sales periods? And would you like to see me run it back again in January or really the end of December to see what the overall holiday sales are or what I think they will be and then do some cross comparisons of, hey, how did I actually do for the month of November? And hey, is it worth actually listening? Like do my, is my ability to be analytical, look at the data and make future projections? Basically, should I be a professional analyst and replace Michael Pachter? All right, folks, I'm Nathan Roblox from the Nintendo Prime, and I'll catch each and every one of you in the next video.