 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Passive sports weekend on tap because we have not just NFL week 13 with a Disgusting number of really fun games But also the round is 16 and the World Cup is coming up We're gonna talk about that with Austin cast of number fire later on getting his read on some of those matches Including the USA versus the Netherlands, but it's also week 13 in the FL Which means we have talked to JJ Zachary soon of late round calm in the late round fantasy football podcast about his favorite player props For this week this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Join here as mentioned by JJ Zachary's and check him out on Twitter at late round QB JJ happy week 13 to you Are you doing today? I'm a lot better after the final drive for new england last night with remandre stevenson Just getting dump off after dump off, you know, you got to love that if you have them in ppr formats So feeling better after that because up until that point it wasn't looking great for him in fantasy Um, but yeah, yeah, man. Things are good. Like you said great great weekend of sports But also, you know specifically the NFL a lot a lot of great games There certainly are and we talked about those games on the full show yesterday with ryan Williams to get the read on those if you want some thoughts on ways to bet chief spengels stuff like that Check that out on the covering the spread podcast feed or up on the fandall youtube page Are you going to give us any uh world cup insights too? Are you excited to watch uh tomorrow's match in the us nevelins? I'm excited. Uh, I am uh the opposite of a a a soccer guy, uh, if you will sorry A non-american football. Yes, uh guy I'm excited though. You know, I I don't like really care for soccer typically, but yeah You know, you got to you got to back the country, you know and in a big event like that It's it's a really fun time. It's just too stressful I will watch it, but I'm gonna be stressed the entire time and I don't like putting myself intentionally in high-stress situations But I guess we'll do it for uh the stars and stripes Let's dig in now though to week number 13 In the NFL and one thing that stood out last week was vibes and like that's a dumb thing to bake to make bets based off of his vibes, but They kind of seem to matter in that jets game. They moved to mike white a quarterback Things went really well for them. Uh, the broad because of that had bad bad vibes the entire year Quillin Sutton, you know, it's been hitting his props pretty regularly. So that's fine, but It seems like I can't quantify this stuff But it does seem like vibes kind of matter Oh, or is it something where you think that markets may overreactive vibes? You could you know potentially Try to buy into situations like that. How do you account for I guess we'll just call it vibes When you're trying to look at player props. Well, let's talk about vibes first Like I think it's real like I don't think it's an unreal thing. Uh, maybe I lose my analytics card by saying that but You know, I I think it's it's a very important thing to understand and just be open to you know, like, you know If you exercise if you're a runner, let's say there's gonna be days where you're more motivated to run than other days And then you're gonna perform better on those days So different for you know, I know that obviously these guys are professionals and they hypothetically should put their best effort forth Every single week because they're getting paid to do this and all of that. But at the same time I mean you can get that extra boost Uh, just naturally if the environment looks right, you know, if you're in this like, you know There's a difference between a preseason game and a regular season game You know, they're not playing the same way in all of these games And so, um, I think it's only natural for there to yes be some sort of like, you know, vibe Situation if you will, um with that being said, I think it's very easy to then overstate What that really means, you know, we look at what mike white did last week Well, the bears defense is arguably the worst defense in the nfl right now, right? So obviously they're going to perform a little bit better defensively when they're facing the chicago bears Or you look at rustle wilson and yeah, things are bad for rust. He's not playing well The coaching staff is an abomination But we have to also keep in mind that they've had offensive line injuries. They've had Horrible pass catcher injuries. I mean like like rustle wilson over the last couple weeks has been thrown to kendall hinton as his number two wide receiver And yes part of that problem is is team building, of course, you know This is but it but it goes beyond just how these guys are performing goes, you know You can look at match up. You can look at injuries all that kind of stuff too Um, so I think that's important to give that context. So i'm sort of in the middle here You know, like I don't think that uh vibes are nothing I don't think that the way that I mean because because we're measuring humans at the end of the day We're measuring how these guys perform and you know day to day with what you do at work with what you do when you exercise Whatever, you know, there are some days where you're just better than others. Um, and that's fine to admit that It's fine to know that you know, what we're looking at and analyzing isn't capturing all of that But at the end of the day, it's still, you know, production is still being captured in some way We can still analyze that stuff knowing that that's the case But then on top of that don't ignore why things might have gone a certain way Which is the typical things we look at matchups, uh, you know injuries, etc I think the other sense in which vibes matter is they can predict movement because When vibes are good people are more likely to bet that side So I think a good one this week is chargers raiders vibes are good around the raiders They've won consecutive games to know over time. We've seen a lot of movement in their favor I think it's moved too far. Um, you know, I think that there are Ways you can use that to decide when to bet or if you want to bet a certain thing This is more so for like sides and totals versus for player props, but vibes can't help you Try to predict where a market will move or whether it'll move and I think that's another important thing to Consider as well I think that's cute betting player props is that I struggle with personally is You're betting a median versus an average whereas most projections I assume are averages versus medians and there's a very big difference there because the distribution of that Is tough. So when you're looking at Your projections comparing them to the market How what process are you going through to try to account for the fact that one number may be an average versus the actual bets We're making are based on the median I think the one thing to to first keep in mind is that, you know, the numbers aren't going to be dramatically different You know, typically like a median and you know, we all learn that in school median and averages Yes, there can be differences depending on the data set, but it's not typically like dramatically dramatically different So that's the first thing which is nice because then you can, you know, when you're projecting these things and when you're looking at your projections You know the average if you will because it's sort of what you're looking at You're sort of looking at, you know, when we say average with projections. We're really looking at things like Rate stats and such and we're looking at like, you know, things like like target share and such which which you're generally Sort of building off of an average in some way Um, but you know, I do think though that you can still look at the extremes Which is what I typically do with my projections I'm looking and seeing if there's like a glaring glaring difference between what I'm projecting And what the market is generally saying and then I'll attack that first and foremost But from there, uh, I'm looking at volume and I'm just seeing how consistent volume is Because volume is stickier than any sort of rate stat that you're going to look at week over week I mean think about, you know, if you're going to go back to averages like in a given game, uh You can have like christian watson last week for instance against philadelphia where he doesn't do a whole lot until he has that huge touchdown Well, that huge touchdown now makes his yardage total look really really good Even though that was just one reception that really boosted that overall yardage total And so what you can look at though is the fact that christian watson had a 24 target share in that offense last week You know, there's there are things that he can still build off of In order to get to that mark once again And so if you have those kinds of numbers backing you whether it's snap count, you know Volume and target share and such if you have those numbers backing you then you can feel a little bit more confident In that projection. So it's important to give all that context, of course But um, you know, I think at the end of the day, you know, you're usually just looking at the extremes in these situations Other thing that's helpful too is like you can use stuff like a poisson distribution You can go to betscope. They have like a distribution calculator, uh, based on like a projection You can put the projection They tell you what the fair market is for that number So there are tools you can use as well, but it's kind of accounting for what we're actually betting is very helpful there Okay, let's move now into the situations that you're looking to target this week fluid situations that may be in flux We could potentially find some value. You know, those markets aren't up as of yet. Which situations are you seeing as being fruitful for this week? JJ Yeah, you know, I don't know if this first one is necessarily Something that you can attack per se unless you see something In a market. I didn't necessarily see it. But uh, tony pollard this past week ran fewer routes than a zql It which is not normal. I mean the week before that he ran 13 more routes than a zql It, uh, which is pretty significant at the end of the day for a running back I mean that that that kind of gap basically says you're the passcatcher You're not the passcatcher in the offense So i'm at least monitoring this backfield split between these two guys, you know, it was a Thanksgiving game Maybe they just wanted a zql it to be used a little bit more in that environment and said I have no idea But you know, it's at least something that that we need to monitor moving forward because uh, tony ball pollard is Is not only a good passcatcher, but he's been that passcatcher for them throughout the season Another one that i'm monitoring this week is jerek mckinnon's status I think this is sort of flying under the radar a little bit right now, but he hasn't practiced all week And uh, you know, we we're recording this on a friday So we don't know exactly if he's gonna play or not or if he's gonna practice today You know either way he's either gonna be banged up this weekend or he doesn't practice He just doesn't play this weekend and if you look at the the chief's depth chart right now You have isiah pacheco. Obviously, uh, claud edwards a lairs on ir They have ronald jones who can't catch passes out of the backfield He hasn't done that throughout his entire career and then they recently signed Melvin gordon who i think they signed because they needed someone who could sort of do it all and be a good A good piece for them, uh, you know, not necessarily just backing up But just just just being security for an insurance for them, uh, but but melvin gordon signed this week I mean he hasn't been there very long And then if jerek mckinnon doesn't go then all of a sudden isiah pacheco has a chance in a Very high over under game a game that could shoot out Be a chance. He has a chance to be a bell cow in that game against Cincinnati So that's definitely one situation that i'm monitoring right now if you want to be aggressive You could obviously just hit overs with isiah pacheco Because you know the other thing too is from a snap count standpoint if jerek mckinnon is in That limits isiah pacheco's just just usage on the field and being on the field in general So, uh, that's a that's a big one for me this week And then the last one, uh, that i want to get to is is the jets wide receivers A lot of people are looking at production from last week and they're saying oh, elijah moore had his best game of the I mean he had two catches but you know elijah moore had his best game of the year scored a touchdown 64 yards against the bears Here's the problem with that is that elijah moore Still played half the number of snaps as quarry davis at this past week quarry davis still ran Ten more routes and elijah moore. He's still the number two wide receiver on that team quarry davis's so That's definitely one one of the the situations to at least realize and recognize is that Even though production is saying one thing in that one game Elijah moore is not really playing that much more even though we would love him to Yeah, the funny thing was after the game the receivers are changing like Oh, free that man free that man when elijah moore is talking to the media It's like he's still didn't play a lot of snaps. So it's very clear what they're alluding to They're not hiding what they're alluding to it was not about playing time It was about you know quarterback play at that point. They're not making it. They're not hiding it there with pacheco I think it was also interesting last week. They kind of used them in creative ways It was only one play but like they had him lined up out wide Put him in motion He ran a slant caught it and then kind of created it after the catch I thought that was like, you know, you don't want to over Over amplify one play in your mind But okay, it's like they kind of trust him as a past catcher And I think that's at least interesting with mckinnon being banged up and gordon being new to the team Let's shift now to yardage props here for week number 13. Where are you seeing value in there for this week? Yeah, so, you know, I just talked about elijah moore Not being the number two wide receiver for the jets at least from a usage standpoint You know, cori davis doubling him up from a snap standpoint I like cori davis over 35 and a half receiving yards You can get this in a lot of books right now He is the number two wide receiver for the jets minnesota who they're facing this week They rank 28th and success rate allowed through the air And they've been really bad against perimeter wide receivers in particular They're third in the nfl and wide receiver target share going outside the slot So teams are attacking the vikings on the perimeter a lot more than the middle of the field Davis has only played 21 of his snaps from the slot this year. So he is a perimeter guy And in full games played this year, uh, davis has actually hit this this over in five of seven games I think that this number is as low as it is right now Because he only had nine yards last week in a game where the jet's offense was moving the ball So I like cori davis in this spot. I think he's he's a really good vet over 35 and a half receiving yards Yeah, the jets go from playing outdoors in the rain to playing indoors against a team that is very good against the rush With potentially their top running back being banged up in this game That could encourage them to throw more confidence in mike whiteman encouraged them to throw more too So a lot of things do point towards maybe more passing volume this week And that could be good for davis because he is still playing a lot of snaps for them Any other yardage props you like for this week? Yeah, I also like seiquan barkley Under, you know, I had I had barkley over a couple weeks ago against against houston when he had 35 rush attempts But I like him under 71 and a half rushing yards, which you can also get in most books Barkley hasn't gotten there in three or four games The one game where he did get there was that houston game that I was just talking about where he carried the ball 35 times in houston Arguably as the worst rush rush defense in football. It's at least one of the bottom five Now new york gets washington washington has actually been really good against the run They ranked seventh in success rate allowed to running backs this season So, you know, I this game has a low over under too. It could just be sort of like a low scoring kind of ugly game So i'm going under with with seiquan barkley at 71 71 and a half rushing yards This number to me should be closer to like 66 and a half Yeah, they also got gary brightwell involved a bit on thanksgiving Like intentionally so like, you know, we're calling a place for him, which was interesting really tough rush defense I just need the giants to win so i'll ask for that We can get we can a seiquan under with the giants win anyway, but um, hopefully it's the yardage through the air Okay, what touchdown props you see him for this week I only have one for you and i'm not going to get as crazy as I I sometimes do uh with these touchdown props. Uh, so let's just keep it simple I like joe burrow over two and a half passing touchdowns against kansas city Which is actually plus 160 right now over on dk So you're getting some good juice with it Uh, kansas city has a bottom 10 pass defense when looking at success rate allowed burrow Obviously getting jamar chase back this week. Uh, this game has an over under a 52 and a half coordinate of handle sports book You know of all the games on this slate This is obviously the one that that we would probably predict to shoot out the most And burrow has has done this before I mean, it's not like we're we're throwing a dart at a random quarterback to hit three touchdowns He's he's hit this over in four of 11 games this year and now you're getting this plus 160 I mean, it's it's a good number in my opinion. Um, you know, I don't have burrow projected at three touchdowns Sure, but when you're getting it at plus 160, I think that you got to take it Yeah, and I need the over in that game too So I have the jets money line that goes well with the davis yardage prop kind of because you know He's productive, you know, they can get a win there. I've got the I've got the over air for cheese spangles at 51 got that there So I like the cohesion between the bets for this week now. JJ We're going to let you go in your second But our next guest is a guy, you know Very well from all the way back in the original late round, uh, qb days austin cast So let's bring austin on as well and a nice little reunion here to to get the old late round qb gang back together Yeah, we uh, we we austin and I go way way back We we uh, we started doing I think he started writing for late round This is late round qb.com before late round dot com All happened, but but he was one of the first guys who who came and started writing for late round qb back in like 2013 so it's been like a decade of austin in my life Which is is kind of sad at the same time that it's already been 10 years, but I love austin to death. He's a great dude Oh, yeah, we all love austin austin Welcome to the show excited to get to talk some world cup with you. Unfortunately. JJ did not give us any world cup bets So disappointing on that end I'm not surprised How you doing? I'm great, man. I'm great. It's good to see you too Yeah, well, we're gonna talk to austin breakdown the round of 16 Talk about usa versus an evidence and a bit but JJ Check out everyone's work or JJ's work at late round dot com The late round fantasy football podcast and find JJ on twitter at late round qb. JJ have fun this weekend And we'll talk to you once again next week. Thanks. Jim. Appreciate it. See you later austin Alrighty big. Thank you once again to JJ again on twitter at late round qb We'll talk to austin about these world cup games in just one second at first The 2022 nfl regular season has been jam packed with excitement this sunday now It'll be no different thanks to fandal and direct tv's plan to give you more ways to win this nfl season Introducing the direct tv sunday night countdown a daily fantasy football contest on fandal awarding $10,000 in cash prizes based around the most exciting part of the week sunday night football Here's how it works Just build your best five player roster while staying under the salary cap and follow along as the game unfolds using fandal's live scoring feature Earn points for each stat your players accumulate and watch as your lineup climbs the leaderboard The higher at the leaderboard your lineup finishes the larger share of $10,000 to win It is that simple contest is now live So go to fandal.com slash league slash direct tv dash snf and make sure to submit your lineup before sunday night That's fandal.com slash league slash direct tv dash smf So I mentioned austin cast is on the show right now. You can find austin on twitter at austin cast k as a or a us tan kas the spelling on that austin is an editor and a writer for us over at numberfire.com doing a lot of uh football Analysis for us over there austin welcome. How's the world cup been for you so far? Looks like you're on mute actually Sorry, sorry. Yeah, it's been really entertaining and fun. Um Yeah, especially when it gets to these last games of the group stage and there's two games going on at once and Yeah, who advances relies on how the other game pans out it gets really stressful and fun Uh, where were you like emotionally during the germany spain? Drama japan yesterday. Where were you at like from a headspace perspective? Um, I thought it was mostly pretty fun When there was a brief window when it looked like Both spain and germany could go home. Yeah, and I didn't really love that because I Kind of boring. I want to see the better teams advance I want to see big matchups later in the tournament So to have both of them go home would have been pretty rough, but it was really entertaining Yeah, it certainly was like I said, I'm not built for this kind of stress So uh, not fun for me, but I'm glad that it was fun for you Now let's talk about this round of 16. We don't have every game set as of yet But we should know but we know most of the matches right now So we talk about those we do know and in addition to betting the individual matches You can also bet on whether a team will advance the next round now I'm confused about this because I don't know world cup at all. So I need you to explain to me We'll we'll put it into the guys have explained to the people not specifically just to me the dummy here Who doesn't know how this works, but how does advancing work once we're in this round? So they'll play just the usual 90 minutes plus injury time as they have been But at now they need a winner every game. So if They're still tied at the end of that they'll do two 15 minute periods of extra time And then if they're still tied at the end of that they'll do a penalty shootout Okay So who they're gonna find a winner at some point at the end of that and then Uh, yeah, so they'll play the two 15 minute periods of of extra time no matter what even if somebody scores right away They'll still play them. It's just like an overtime in basketball um But then it does kind of change things for betting a little bit because you can bet on the team to advance which means They go through counting the the 15 minute over times There are the extra times and then penalties or you could just bet on the money line Yeah, the money line bets end at the end of the 90 minutes plus the usual injury time They won't include the shootout or the extra time or anything like that Do you want to navigate around a shootout like because I feel like a shootout Probably is not going to be the best indicator of like strength I guess in terms of you know, which is the better team and that could introduce some volatility So would you prefer to stay away from betting the two advanced markets and rather just you know Introduce the tie s or the draw aspect into it and you know bet on those 90 minutes plus stoppage time Yeah, I think for the most part I would because penalty shootouts are super volatile and anything can happen Um, I guess if you really like the goalie from a team and you think Maybe maybe if they're an underdog that has a strong goalie and you think they can keep this thing close And you never know what happens and you like the price You could go with it but for the most part I do stay away from it So let's talk specifically about usa versus netherlands. We talked about this a bit with ed back on wednesday But right now where market stands, uh, the netherlands on the money line is minus 115 ties plus 230 us Down to they're up to plus 350 now. That's been lengthening which is interesting given the way people tend to bet sometimes with their Uh with their heads versus or with their hearts versus their heads So when you look at this match austin, are you seeing any value from a betting perspective? What's the overall read for you on this match? I think it's going to be a match without a lot of clear chances somewhere to the three the us have played so far And in any kind of match like that that that pushes me toward the underdog um Just because if they can find a goal, you know that Then that maybe they can hang on if the other team's struggling to create chances, but A big thing for me is Polistic status if if he can't play I think that's going to be a huge negative for the us because The netherlands are a possession-based team who are probably they're probably going to pin the us back defensively quite a bit So they'll need uh, polisics ability to create and dribble Which will help get the team up the field if polisic can't play A few of the us could get stuck in the defensive half quite a bit and it could just be an onslaught of chances from the netherlands, but The netherlands have been really underwhelming in attack so far. They have just 2.6 expected goals Per fb refs expected goal model and 1.7 of those came against qatar who's one of the worst teams in the tournament Uh in the us outside of the second half against wales has been really good defensively Held england and iran to 1.2 expected goals total so I think it's it could be a 1-0 game um either way, but If if the reports today are trending positively toward polisic and it sounds like he's going to play and he's going to mostly be the same guy I kind of like Throwing a few bucks on the americans moneymine price at 340 or 350 now. Yeah, if it sounds like he's not going to play or Will be compromised at all then I think netherlands. They're they're 110 minus 110 moneymine price is more than fair Yeah And it seems as though he's going to be good to go based on but that's not definitive yet So I think that if it were more definitive, we probably would see the plus 350 be shortening there any other takeaways for you from Your overall vibe that there won't be a lot of chances like are you looking at a total in this game as well? Or is it primarily that Lower scoring can breed more chaos and can allow an underdog to win. Is it more so that versus looking at the total goals markets? Yeah, it's more so the latter and I think yeah We've seen a lot of that this tournament expected goals really hasn't mattered too much and I keep You know over the long term it will matter, but it's not a long-term event. Unfortunately It's just it's similar to the nta tournament where Yeah, a team can get hot and Variants can rule the day and it has so far for the most part Okay, well, that's the usa versus netherlands, but we got I think six other matchups set already for this round to 16 So or five other matchups What other value are you seeing right now at vandal sportsbook for this round? I Really like a futures bet of portugal to reach the semi-finals. It's priced at 155 plus 155 sorry I think portugal are really talented side and a little have been a little bit underrated coming into the tournament And the markets are starting to correct a little bit, but I also really like their path and I say that while acknowledging that Trying to predict future matchups before the whole bracket has been set can be a little pointless And I was feeling that yesterday during the groupie chaos, but Portugal has a great chance to win their group and as we're recording this they're tied 1-1 and that's all they need to Win their group. So it's likely they'll face the group g-runner up which figures to be Serbia or switzerland Neither side would be a pushover by any means, but their opponents portugal should beat Then after that portugal would face either morocco or spain morocco won their group despite and expect a gold differential negative 0.6 So as such spain is a huge minus 460 favorite to advance past morocco But spain to me is a little bit of fools gold I enjoy their style of play a lot, and I love their midfield of booskets, patreon gavi, but For all their possession and the slick passing They struggled to create top-match chances They pummeled costa rica and the opener scoring seven, but after that they mustered just 1.7 expected goals across the final two matches And I like portugal's chances that they meet up with spain in the quarterfinals And a win there would obviously put them into the semi-finals to cash that bet So is it more so for you buying into portugal and what they'd done or is this In your head kind of a fate of spain and trying to buy against them? Both okay both so Coming into this world cup. I was actively looking for chances to put money on portugal and so It's a little bit of that and it's also some of I think Spain came into the tournament as one of the favorites scored seven goals in the first game and I think everybody kind of overreacted a little bit to that and then Kind of struggled in attack despite having a lot of the ball against germany, which germany is one of the best teams even though they got eliminated and then Yeah against japan too didn't really create many clear cut chances. So it's a little bit of both Okay, I like the bled anything else sending out to you for right now. It had entering this round of 16 I'm not really not really. I'm just kind of Like I said waiting to see if the expected goals went out if If some of the chalk pushes through or if this is just going to be a crazy tournament where We get one or two just wacky teams in the final four, which I think can be fun and for some people that's probably really fun But I would rather see some of the big boys slug it out. So yeah, that's just my two cents That's always a risk with like you were talking about the NCAA tournament is like, okay You get some upset but that means you're going to get some bad matchups later on It seems like they're For the most part like the round of 16 teams are decently strong where it's not going to be like a massive concern But it'll be fun And hopefully it is as fun as we've been able to have so far through the open the big group matches We'll see how the round of 16 go is beginning tomorrow Like this austin cas check him out on twitter at austin cas find his Soccer work over at number fire dot com austin enjoy the matches and we'll talk to you Hopefully once again soon here later on the show Alrighty that is austin cas again a big. Thank you to him for joining us for today That's all we got here for covering the spread for today and for this week once again A big thank you to jj. Zacharyse and find him on twitter at late round qb and check out the late round of fantasy football Podcast big. Thank you to austin for talking some soccer We'll have add on again next week to talk more world cup as well Uh to get those shows right as they're posted make sure to subscribe to covering the spread or the fan Duel youtube page to get these as these go up. I am on twitter at jim sonnis Want to thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you whether it be nfl props nfl week 13 college football conference championships or world cup Good luck with those. We'll talk to you once again monday for more nfl This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network