 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are coming off of a fantastic sports weekend with UFC 300 and the Masters Of course NASCAR in Texas too But it doesn't let up because the NBA play-in tournament is now set to begin tomorrow night A lot of fun there We're gonna break down the way the seeds broke down like down break down each team's odds to make the playoffs where we see Value over a Fandall sportsbook and Tuesday's games by talking to Tom and Vecchio today getting his read on This year's play-in. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Join here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one Tom Pleasure to have you on for today. How you doing? I'm doing good. Yeah Crunch time is finally here for these teams Really interesting set of games on both sides. I think the West is a little bit more interesting compared to the East I think we all know who's gonna be probably coming out of the East the West a bit more of a toss-up this year And there are a lot of fun teams in the Western Conference play-in as well So we'll talk about that talk about whether any of the lower seeds can advance and what we've learned from past play-in tournaments as Well by talking to Tom for today But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast coming up later on this week NFL draft thoughts via Connor Allen of 4 for 4 football. We're gonna talk to Tom on Friday It's about the Stanley Cup playoffs once those are all set later on this week all of Dinger Tuesday thoughts tomorrow here on the show So good week here on covering the spread and make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the fan dual youtube page and over on fan dual TV plus Now Tom will talk about this year's tournament here in a second But we've had a couple iterations of this NBA play-in tournament and I wanted to ask you What have been the key takeaways from you from those initial couple of tournaments? So you want to apply to betting this year's events? The takeaways are that we're probably in for a lot of unders and that's the trend that we've seen for most of these games and When I'm looking at the spreads for these first four games My initial takeaway was unders in three or four of them and that's kind of not necessarily an exact trend that we've seen But most of the games if we look back over the past few years are rather low-scoring So just I'll run through some of these quickly in 2022 109 to 104 113 to 103 115 to 108 Relatively low-scoring then there's one big game at 132 to 103 We saw the same thing last year where it's one away 102 105 116 105 109 and then 123 to 118 So I think you know when push comes to shove I mean leaning on the unders and that one game to go to the over would be Atlanta in Chicago Just because there's a very clear lack of defense when it comes to the Hawks So I want to start with unders with a lot of things and that may not be the most exciting But this is like prime basketball This is like the high-intensity basketball that we actually want everyone talks about all the regular seasons too long You know, how do we talk about a game in the middle of January and a Tuesday? How do these players get motivated for that? This is the time to be motivated This is the time for tough defense every possession counts more rebounds Lack of scoring like this is the most exciting time. So lots of unders to start things off Now obviously bookmakers know this too when you look at the totals for the opening couple of games We'll dig into these specifically here in a bit But 225 for Lakers Pelicans 223 and a half for Warriors Kings Two of seven and a half for Heaton 76ers and then 218 and a half for the Hawks and of the Bulls When you look at those numbers just first glance Tom Do you think the bookmakers are fully accounting for the intensity here or is there potentially still more value towards siding with an unders? I think times we've been accounted for again if this was a regular season game in December or January Golden State Kings would be in the the 235 range. It would be much higher We again, I've talked about the words before they've kind of gotten better as on defense as the season goes on And again with Miami and Philly would that be up at 240 in the regular season? No, but that would be at like 215 216 error. So that's definitely being accounted for I think You can potentially take liveovers. That's a whole different conversation if some games start off really really slow It's like at least teams aren't just gonna end in the game 85 to 82 So you can take some liveovers, but that's a different story So I would side with unders initially maybe take a live over it in Golden State Sacramento Maybe find a middle whatever might be Okay, so check out the totals see if there's value on the under towards you because as Thomas in the past does seem like the intensity does ratchet up here for sure now. Let's talk about some of the specific matchups here beginning in the West where the top two seeds are the Lakers and the pelicans they'll face off in the first round our first games on Tuesday Lakers minus 550 to advance the playoffs in the pelicans minus four fifth We can bet the yes or the no side for all these teams at Fandall sportsbook Tom When you look at the markets right now to make the playoffs for the West any Values to you at Fandall at the moment The value right now would be going with Sacramento They've the longest odds and it really comes down This is you know, everyone's got to make the decision. Do you think the Warriors have have run their course? Do you think this is the end or do you think that you know? Experience that they have for a decade of being in the playoffs and their core veterans Do you think that's gonna cause them to get or do you think the Kings learned enough last year by losing to the Warriors? Blowing that lead because if the Kings make the playoffs that means they have to a Win the game one against the Warriors and then win a second game So there would be value on the other side of taking a no for either Lakers or the pelicans So it's honestly a personal question. Do you think the Kings have learned enough over this past season to overcome the Warriors? So I do I think they do so my spot would be the Kings I would put like a quarter unit on plus 390 I think there's a good a good spot to target them whether or not it's the pelicans or the Lakers They end up playing against so that's a very very tough matchup as we would see with this one point spread So I would start with the Kings to make the playoffs What makes you think the Kings have learned and have the ability to beat this this Warriors We'll talk about the game in a second the the specific game in a second But what gives you the faith that they are a different team now than what they've been in the past so it's tough to say like last year they beat teams just because they would run up the score to 140 and You know this year I want to say that like you have to learn to win in different ways You can't just win every game 140 230 you have to learn to win games like 120 to 115 So like when you go through that process of like you have to play better defense while still being efficient on offense Because you can't just give away everything on defense and let them score 130 That's part of that has a lot to do with it You know also losing the leap monk isn't the best for them overall But just I'm not confident in the Warriors time and time again They wouldn't be in the spot if they were like some overwhelming favor Okay So we'll talk about that Tuesday game here in a second between the Kings and the Warriors But Tom does like the Kings plus 390 to advance to the playoffs in the West and the East It's the heat in the 76ers who are the top two seed 76ers minus 1800 to advance the heat are minus 590 right now in Fandals sportsbook So obviously that that game between the Hawks and the bulls gonna decide who gets a second shot here as well When you look at the east top any value stand out to you there As of now, it's probably no, okay You know, it's like you said, you know the heat and the 76ers They both get two cracks had to make the playoffs like I said at the top You know, I think we everyone probably assumes we know how this matchups gonna go one of these teams wins They move in they have a second shot. They're both clearly better teams ahead of the Hawks I would take either of these teams very clearly ahead of the Hawks the bulls It'll be a closer matchup, but if Philly somehow loses this first game I don't think anyone's gonna be on the bulls too much ahead of Philly Especially with them be back playing a full compliment a minute So the East is really straightforward as I said the West is far more interesting The East is kind of a stay away until we get the matchups for that real first round So I want to ask you about the Embiid thing because it was a bit of surprise. He didn't play yesterday Is that a red flag to you or no? No, no, it was it's more of just they, you know, they came with the win on Friday Things were essentially locked up and let's just call it what it is and as a Nets fan I can say this there was no way the Nets were beating the 76ers even with the 76ers B team and getting him that extra day of Rest he can rest so it was Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday rest, which is great for him, especially, you know after the injury I'm not worried about that in any capacity Okay, so no value in the East as over and right now potentially some individual games at some point later on speaking of the games Let's talk about the first games which come up on Tuesday night beginning We got Lakers and Pelicans right now at Fandals sports book the Lakers are favored by a point in this game total is 225 What do you see in this game Tom in the seven versus eight matchup? Like I said more unders specifically, it's probably LeBron a rebounding prop. It's at seven and a half You know when we're looking at this type of matchup, obviously a literal back-and-forth game with the one point spread I already mentioned I love the the unders and basically all these games except Chicago Atlanta and LeBron Rebounds an assist prop is something I'm gonna be leading out. I'm not really on any points props I will say LeBron's point prop is I believe it's 25 or 24 and a half whatever's points prop is that now I will be looking to get under that moves up to 26 or 27 I'm not sure what it's exact exactly at right now If it moves to 27, I'll take the under on 27 and a half LeBron ending a game of a must-win game essentially Borderline with six rebounds isn't throughout that the Lakers need So that's how I'm looking at it. He's had great success against the pelicans this year. He's averaging over 28 points I'm not really worried about the points. I want to be looking at the rebounds slower pace They you know kind of turned up the defensive intensity, especially over the last month or so. I was high with LeBron Davis rebounding prop is I think just a bit too high at 13 and a half Right now that rebounding prop for LeBron is sitting at nine and a half or seven and a half rebounds over is minus 125 for this Lakers versus pelicans matchup I want to go back to our discussion about the unders because again, there are two paths to unders There is slow pace and there is intensity and there are missed shots, you know tight defense Do you worry at all about pace here or is it more about the intensity defensively leading to more mistakes leading to more Contested shots. Is that the reason why you tend to lean towards unders? Yeah, it's the latter more than the pace like the even with a slower pace like shots are still gonna get up It'll still be at even if they play super slow both teams will be at like 98 or 99 possessions per game So it's still plenty of opportunities for LeBron and you know his experience I think the the the advantage that they have down low like Jonas valentunas has not been super solid for the pelicans in the second Half it's gonna be I'm not gonna be surprised to see Larry Nance coming off the bench with pelicans alongside Zion Who obviously is fantastic, but I will just take a rebounding prop and what should be a lower scoring game Okay, so Tom is on LeBron's over rebound seven and a half the mark right now Fandall sportsbook with the over at minus 125 second game is pretty intriguing We got the Warriors and the Kings right now and we've seen this one move towards the Warriors It was a Warriors minus one last night. It's now waters minus two and a half We talked a bit about this matchup earlier on where it sounds like you like the Kings to advance Which probably implies some value on the Kings money line at plus 118 What stands out to you in this one overall? So like I said, I like the Kings to advance I like the under and while both of those are true I still think it's gonna be a very close game as we've seen, you know the spread be here I still think there's value in the Warriors side when it comes to player props And that's gonna be going to dream on green who I know can be a tough player to bet on for a lot of people because we're not Only worried about The game overall we're also worried about him getting ejected sure right and he hit He's been I want to say better in the second half of the season He had great success against the Kings last playoffs You know he played six games of that seven-game series. He's a player that is routinely pushing towards Either 10 plus rebounds or 10 plus assists. So it's the rebound plus assist prop for Draymond Green at 13 and a half Again, I like the Kings to advance But I still think there's value with Draymond at over 13 and a half when we've seen some of these recent games He's putting up 12 rebounds and just based on the size disadvantage When we're looking at some bonus down low for the Kings like Draymond has to have a big game He has to play this part in order for the Warriors to have a shot So I'm kind of I don't want to say playing both sides here because I like a player prop from one But I like the other team to advance but I'm just thinking about the game overall where if I'm leaning on the under and They should be operating in rational fashion. Draymond's just gonna do his thing as long as he doesn't get ejected It's wild that it's be such a big part of the analysis with it It has to be I mean like that happens, you know That's part of betting is that like that stuff can happen. Yeah injuries ejections This is all this is all something I don't want to have to take into account But we have we'd like we need to especially the player like Draymond who does have some history specifically against the Kings Literally last year. So as long as he's on the court for 38 minutes. This is a very viable mark for him to get to Yeah, what could possibly go wrong? Yeah, exactly, okay So Tom likes Draymond green over 13 and a half rebounds plus assists at Fandral Sportsbook over there is my is plus one of six That's in addition to the LeBron rebound over number over seven and a half That is minus 125 and also on the Kings to make the playoffs at plus 390 for the play in that is Tom Vecchio, make sure you check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one We'll have him back with us on Friday to break down the Stanley Cup playoffs as those shake down Tom Enjoy the playoff basketball until then we'll talk to you once again Friday. Thanks for having me. Alrighty again Fine Tom on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one where recap last week's recommendations here on the show from the Masters You have C 300 and much more to round things out in just one second First it is playoff time in the NBA and NHL baseballs in full swing and Fandral is your place to bet on every game right now new customers Get $150 and bonus bets guaranteed. 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Let's begin things with the Masters We have branding a doula on to preview the Masters check out Brandon on Twitter I could do a 13 of course can find me and Brandon on the heat check every Tuesday talk and that week's PGA tour event on the Fandral research podcast feed Scotty Schaeffler close things out at the Masters To get the win there. He was plus 450 to win which was pretty short But hey it was short for a reason so he got the win there the outrides brand and recommended were Xander Schaeffler 14 to 1 Joaquin even 28 to 1 Matthew Fitzpatrick 40 to 1 Tommy Fleawood 50 came pretty close Tommy finished inside the top 5 saw the gala 50 to 1 and Russell Henley 60 to 1 so shout out to Scotty Schaeffler for the big win there and Fleetwood giving it a good run with the t3 The regional bets did go well for Brandon. He had been on to be the top Korean at 3 to 1 That was a winner there on played pretty well I was hoping on could have gotten me a top 10 He came pretty close couldn't quite get there needed one more birdie from him It was close, but a good showing from Ben on regardless. He need does win the top Korean market at 3 to 1 Brandon also Ludwig Aberg as the top Nordic player and plus 1 35 and he almost won the whole dang thing I finished second there really good showing by Aberg. He's a lot of fun to watch He's a guy who says he's nervous, but looks like kind of a stone-cool killer. So excited to see what he does Going forward for the rest of this year too But winners in both the regional markets for Brandon in the round one bets Brandon had the Denny McCarthy round 1 3 blow ball plus 110 against Cam Davis and The a V Jagas and couldn't get the win there with McCarthy McCarthy. I think shot a 74 So 2 over on Thursday Cam Davis had a good round there and then also ruined the Adam shank round one match against Davis That was minus 110 so Cam Davis Put in both those to bed But good calls by ran on the regional bets again at Ben on top Korean 3 to 1 Ludwig Aberg top Nordic player plus 1 35 We'll have more thoughts on this week's tournament on Tuesday on the fan dual research podcast feed and Over on fan dual TV plus we had Austin Swain on a preview USC 300 find Austin on Twitter at a swing 3 and of course find him on the heat check as well for UFC every Friday Breaking down that weekend's card in the big title matchup We had Jamal Hill to win the money line there was plus 114 He'll dig it knocked out those so no win there other money lines for Austin went one-to-one He had Jessica and Raj to win it by to win at minus 140 and to the use of to win at plus 120 And Raj did get the win minus 140 one by split decision seemed like a pretty close fight there But they get the win there at minus 140 and then Yusuf was knocked out so no win there On the money line props for Austin. He had Charles Charles, Olavera to win by knockout or submission That is plus 240 he lost by a split decision there And then Yuri Prochaka to win by decision at six to one. He did win but by knockout so Couldn't get the dub there but did get the andrage money line find Austin on Twitter and a swing three other Austin Was also on the show can't call him other Austin Senior editor at fan dual research Austin cast find him on Twitter Austin cast We had him on to preview EPL match week 33 this past week He had the over four goals in Tottenham versus Newcastle at minus 108 and that one went to four goals I think Newcastle scored. I don't know. I remember tracking on my phone on Saturday But it was a four nothing victory so did get over three and a half goals there So winner at minus 108 player props for Austin He had Yvonne Tony to score a goal at minus 135 Tony did not play in this match So that one did wind avoiding get your money back on that one So no bet there final one was we see as to score assistant minus 115 in the Liverpool versus Crystal Palace matchup But Crystal Palace won they won that game 1-0. So No goal or assist for Louise Diaz there Crystal Palace coming through the big upset now Giving man City a pretty good run at being at the top of the table Big upset there. So no win for Diaz But check out Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass Finally for me I had NASCAR this week at Texas talked about a couple of top 10 bets on the show for a pair of teammates and They were both slow Austin Hill 6 to 1 Austin Dylan plus 850 Austin Hill finished dead last So no in there Austin Dylan at one point during this race is being outrun by two cars That did not have right front fenders and yet he finished inside the top 10 So Austin Dylan it did cash plus 850 for the top 10 there. It was a chaotic race, but also Based on past history at Texas and Charlie it kind of expect that so I think I actually modeled it correctly It resulted in a win for Austin Dylan also had Chase Briscoe in the betting guide on Sunday over at Fandor research So a good week overall Kind of bumps I had Michael McDowell and Zane Smith both of whom had a pretty good shot to finish and set the top 10 Couldn't quite get those because of They well McDowell wrecked Zane was in a bad spot as far as Fragi Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Same thing really fast car So I had some bad luck, but still cash two of the five Which I'll be happy about every time did get one out of the two here on the show as well Austin Dylan plus 850 for a top 10 comes through for us here That's all we have here for today on a covering the spread back with you once again tomorrow We're gonna talk Dinger Tuesday bets over at Fandall Sportsbook to celebrate that Don't forget to follow Tom Vecchio on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio want to find his work over at Fandall research I am on Twitter at Jim Sonna so you can also follow Fandall research on Twitter at Fandall research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your Monday bets Enjoy the play-in beginning tomorrow. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for Dinger Tuesday This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network