 Hello and welcome to the Chart of the Week video with me, David Madden. Today's date is Thursday, the 19th of November, 2020 and the time has just gone, 1201 GMT. On this week's Chart of the Week is the US dollar, Canadian dollar, the dollar cat, as often gets referred to. This here is a daily chart of the currency pair and as we can see, since late March it's been in a solid downward trend the last few months. In fact, the lows that we fell to earlier this month are basically the lowest levels seen in about two years. So we have recouped a small bit from there, so we're off the multi-year lows that were set recently. But the point of this video is to discuss, are we going to see a continuation of the recent downward trend or are we going to rebound from here? Now, if you take a look at the price action, we can see here that the market rebounded into last week. But notice how the rebound seemed to kind of run out of steam and yet we were drifting a bit lower again, which would indicate it hasn't really kind of shaken off the bearish trend. It could suggest that the upward move that we saw at the beginning of November was just merely a rebound from the aggressive negative move that we saw that began in late October. So we could be looking at heading further, heading south again. Now, currently at one spot 30.09, if you move lower from here, we could take out the kind of one spot 30 area, big number and all that. And if you go below that, we could then be looking heading back down towards the recent lows in one spot 29.28. And if we were to go below that, we then be looking at going back to levels in the last scene a couple of years ago. So if you take out one spot 29.28, the recent low, we could be heading back down toward this area here, the lows of late September 2018, they come into play in around one spot 27.82. And if you go below that, we could be heading back down towards the lows of mid April 2018. And they come into play in around one spot 25.27. Now, if we do manage to get a move on higher from here on dollar CAD, where could we look to go? We could look to head back up towards this blue line here, the fifth of the moving average, and it wants just north of one spot 32.01. We can notice on a few occasions, the metric act with both the support and resistance. A support in early October, very briefly, and then granted in mid October, it traded above it. So couldn't say quite active resistance. But on a few occasions, I think it's a fairly important kind of consolidation zones around a 50 moving average. So keep an eye on that metric to the upside. If we go beyond that, we could then be looking at retesting the highs of late October, just shy of one spot 34. And you can see on a few occasions at this area here, just north of one 34, in around one spot 34.18, there thereabouts, on a few occasions that metric area active resistance quite well. So a break beyond that would be fairly significant. And if you go beyond that level, we could then be looking at heading back up to the levels that were seen back in late July, in around the kind of one spot 36 zone. Now, one of the reasons why I wanted to discuss dollar CAD today was not just because it's in a fairly clear and clear downward trend, because I do like to look at trending markets. I also think it's a good currency pair is a good proxy for risk, because recently the US dollar has become a very popular risk off strategy. So whenever traders are worried about the health of the global economy, no pun intended, given the pandemic, the US dollar has attracted safe haven flows. So typically there's been concerns about COVID-19 rates or the lockdowns. The dollar has tended before or performed whenever stocks and metals and all those have fallen. Conversely, whenever there's been positive news about positive news in general, but more recently about, say, the health crisis, any of the potential vaccines from the big drug companies, that's tend to have triggered a sell-off in the US dollar and conversely a move upward in both stocks, but also in commodities and to be precise oil. The Canadian economy is a relatively large oil producer, so any moves in the oil market tends to have a big impact on what's going on with the Canadian dollar. So if I take a look here briefly at the Brent Crude or cash contract, we can see that it's been an aggressive upward trend of move since the beginning of the month. That's about coinciding with the initial news from Pfizer and BioNTech, that their potential vaccine for COVID-19 is quite successful. So it's not coincidence that in the last few weeks, the oil market has been driving higher and coincident, and at the same time, we've also seen quite a negative move in the actual dollar CAD itself. So the upward move in oil coincides with the downward move in dollar CAD. So it depends how the situation goes. If we have the renewed health views, we could see a rebound in dollar versus the Canadian dollar, but if we do see further improvements on the vaccine story, that's likely to spur on the oil market, given that it's a stronger global economy that probably equates to a higher demand for oil. At the same time, on the other side of the trade, if traders are quite bullish, they're more likely to drop the US dollar. If you are going to be trading dollar CAD or any of the major currency pairs today, keep in mind that at 1330 GMT, the US job is clear as we posted, and that's likely to add some volatility to the FX markets. That's all from this video. Thank you for listening. Have a good day, and good luck.