 Mae'n gofyn i chi'n gweithio, ond nid oedd yna yn bobl yn gyfrifio ar hyn ac mae'n cael cyfnodd yn gweithio'r gwrthau. Ond nid oedd wedi'u cael ei gweithio ei fod yn ei wneud o'r ffordd. Yn y cyffredin hynny, mae'n ymwneud yn gweithio ar y dyfodol yma, yw ymddir i'r ymddir y mae'n cael ei gweithio. Mae fath yw, gan gwybod i'w Llywodraethau ac näpe yn fany, ond rydyn ni'n eich sgondol yn ymgyrchu'n cael y gwirion. Fe ydywch yn y gallu gwirion. Fawr deallaf yn y gwirion. Roedd y ddigon o'r fath yw? Dîm hofiant, oedd yw oedd yn siŷn os yn digon o'n gwirion. Roedd yw wedi'urok? Roedd yw'r wneud? Roedd yw'rwnau? Roedd. Roeddwn i'r rôl nhw o'r amser. Mae'n eu rôl. Mae'r ddau'r ddau arall yn ddau'r ddau. Mae'r ddau sy'n meddwl i'r ddau sydd wedi'i'r ddau yn y fwyaf am yr ydydd. Yn amser oedd y gwybod yn y ffordd sy'n amlwg i'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau, ac roedd mae'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau, sy'n ddau'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau sy'n ddau'r ddau,厀wch o gydafod ar ôl y gwaith yma, odyn nhw i'r cymdeithasg ond dweud o'r peth o'r gaelio fathau fel y rhaid i'r gweld ymlaen. Wel y gwael cyfrannu, bydd y gwirionedd inghynsgol, yr inghynsgol, rhaid i'r inghynsgol, mae'n defnyddio fod bydd yma gyda gweld. Rhaid i'r gweld yn gweld fel hyn ar hyn. ar ddysgu i ddyn nhw, yw'r oedden nhw'n cael y llwythau, a'r oedden nhw'n cael gweld yna y rhesymu yn y region, oedden nhw'n eich glen, ond y dyma'r periodd yw'n rhesymu, oedden nhw'n ym mwyaf y 20, oedden nhw'n y mwyaf yw'r ymchwil yw'r 1860, oedden nhw'n ymwneud ar y gweithgwyr yma. A dyma'r oedden nhw'n cyhoedd, os yw'n oedden nhw'n arweithio, oedden nhw'n arweithio'r ymwneud? I mean, y trobl waz, I mean, whatever is five years ago, Piketty just comes along and I think he's, everyone gets brainwashed into thinking that inequality is increasing and certainly there's a lot of, sort of, just evidence that you come into contact with on a day-to-day basis that suggests that might be the same as the true. I'm going to just talk about, I've been involved in two ar y cyfnod o'r ddysgu'r ddau i'r ddarparu. Dyma, i fy nghyrch i'r ddal, oedd ydym ni'n gweithio'r wyf ar y credit swyth i ddau'r cyfnod o'r ddau cyfnod ar y cyfnod ar y cyfnod. Mae'n oed yn 1.5 miliwn o'r oesrif o'r ddau'r cyfnod. Rwy'n meddwl i fynd i gyd yn ei ddweud, a byddwch ar gyfer yr ymgylch, a'r byddwch yn meddwl i'r ddweud. So we're looking at a standard idea about net worth, real property, plus financial assets, less debts, and less debts. We use official exchange rates, that's another important thing when you're talking about these things. We construct a distribution for adults, and again that's quite important to note. We also do a top tail adjustment in which we try and match the data to the Forbes billionaire list for the last 20 years that we match our numbers against and adjust the top tail for doing that. On the income side I've been involved and I'm currently working with the wider data set, in which we're trying to improve it in all sorts of different ways to clean record the data and fill in missing gaps, standardize it up, get some standardize values and also, construct a synthetic database again, to try to do all the sort of things that we do with um, on the wealth side. So the moment I'm just going to report on some numbers o'r bwysig yw'r adeiladau yng Nghymru. Yn oedd hyn o'r angen o wahanol, rydym yn ei wneud i'r adeiladau o gydag ar gyfer adeiladau. Erbyn y bydd ymlaen, mae'n argymell i'r adeiladau ar gael, wrth gwrs, mae'n rhai o'r hyn o'r planydd. Rydyn ni wedi cael ei arddangos ei ddau, ond rydyn ni'n rhaid i'r adeiladau o'r adeiladau ar gyfer y parys. So, that's what we have, and let me just... It sees a few summary things. Just to... Net worth is something like five times income per capita. This is net worth per adult, so I guess there's roughly two adults and what is about twice as many people when you do a per capita adjustment. So, we're talking about, on average, wealth is about two and a half times, I suppose, income. The median value you see there, the median value for wealth is... For income it's about one-fifth. For wealth it is almost close to one-tenth, one-eighth or something. The gene is much higher. This is the global values. Top percent percent, 20 percent higher, and the top one percent is close to 50 percent in the wealth area, whereas it's just around 20 percent in the income side. So, there's a lot more... Wealth is much more unequal. I hope... So, these are just plots now of the income side and long series back to 1960. As you see, most of the inequality values trended upwards till around at least late in last century and then sometime in the last 10 years or something they flattened out and started to decrease. So, I think pretty well everyone that does this comes to the same conclusion. But again, there's a lot of methodological differences because I'm not quite sure... We try and reconstruct a distribution for the whole world. We don't leave out any country. If we haven't got much data on, we just try and estimate it anyway and provide a sample for that. So, our sample is not some countries in the early years more later on and so on. It's not more complete. There's no change of the country structure which is going to affect the long-term trends. And again, we construct a sample which is again... So, we do this for every single country and wait for things accordingly. So, the top 10% you've got a little bit more of an obvious fall around the turn of the century and the top 1% it looks like it's not really falling. So, there is that ambiguity about whether inequality is going down lately but for most of the more standard measures that don't focus on very, very top parts, it looks like there has been some reduction. Another thing which I think is quite interesting is to look at the mean and the median and we're able to do this because we effectively have a sample for the whole world so we can quite easily compute the median global income. And I've done that now. This is just a normal index on 2007 I've taken. So, we just see mean income increased. Sorry, the mean increase has risen over the whole period at a fairly constant rate. The median income for income has really speeded up since the turn of the century and that's again so that the median has increased as a proportion of the mean and that is indicating a reduction in inequality. In some respects I think it gives a rather clearer pattern than any of the other measures so I'm going to report that for wealth and income. I'd rather bring out the comparison. I'm going to quickly go through these just to say if you look at the different regions and just see what is happening to the genie coefficients it's not as if the global picture looks like there's a compositional problem that there's a change in the regions but somehow the regional balance is changing and that's causing the overall global effect. So these on the whole the sort of the world value and the regional value seem to be more or less in parallel. Let me, given we are moving time and you might want to learn about wealth inequality here it is for the world and again you see the much much higher figures we are here and you look at that and you have to say it looks like in the top graph we're talking about the blue figures are that's for the genie. The top 10% is the grey figure they're really not much different they're very high in the up in the high 80s 90s and there's looking at that eyeballing it doesn't suggest there's much changing over time. The top 1% is as the other difference here I should say is we only got the data for wealth from 2000 so we're on a more compressed time scale here but the figures for the top 1% have trended downwards since the turn of the century to the global financial crisis since then they've gone up but it hasn't really affected the top 10% or the genie coefficient very much. One of the theories about why this is happening and why wealth inequality might be differing is to do with the composition rich wealth holders tend to have a different wealth composition, their portfolio is more heavily weighted towards financial assets particularly they tend to own stocks in companies often their own company these things are traded on international markets the last 10 years has been very favourable to those sort of assets people have done very well and that may be one of the reasons why the share has gone up. So on the bottom there we're looking at the you can see then again the mean and the median indexed on 2007 for wealth it's really quite stark there isn't it? The mean or mean wealth went up to 2007 then just had a little bit of a dip and then continued to rise the median actually did rather better in the years up to 2007 the wealth inequality declined a little bit the median person did better than the mean mean wealth but since then it's been pretty flat and nothing's the median wealth has been virtually constant so whereas the mean wealth has gone up for the reason I've just said so you can think of this the sort of gains that we've had since the financial crisis pretty well all the gains have gone to the groups above the median so the median is just stagnating there the other difference, a notable difference if you get into this comparison between income and wealth is that there's a lot of wealth holders with negative holdings you don't really get this so the whole question about wealth inequality can go up because the people at the top draw away or the people of the bottom fall behind and one of the evident trends particularly this century is being the fact that at the bottom more people are reporting negative wealth a lot of this is people taking out more debts in particular student debt which before 2000 was quite rare a small number of countries now there's lots of countries where people students take out quite large amounts of debt and that seems to be recorded in the figures so that's another reason why sometimes you have to think about what inequality measure you're using and whether or not having negative values and the fact that there's more negative wealth holders whether that is a sort of something that you can deal with so here is I'm trying to combine so we can look and see what's happened to income and wealth together so the sort of red and brown are the wealth values the blues are the income values so quick for the world it looks like wealth has been flat or slightly increasing for income side inequality seems to be trending downwards this is just of course since the year 2000 and that's why I quite like looking at this mean to median ratio I've used the mean to median because that if that goes up it's reflecting increased inequality so you get some it's a rather clean clear picture here in which the income looks like it's trending inequalities trending down the wealth is going down and then trending upwards again after the crisis period I've done now for a lot of different countries just to see what's been happening and for most of these actually because you could say what's happening globally wealth is going up because we're shifting towards the weight is shifting towards countries which have more inequality so there's a compositional effect that in fact inequality is going down in each country but it's offset by the changing composition the same would be true of income global inequality is going up but inequality in each country is being constant or going down so that we're switching China, India getting more weight and that's changing the global pattern there is some sort of truth to that in the sense that when we look at individual countries the blue lines on the following pages are the ones where income and in most countries there's not evidence of much of a decline in income inequality within countries so people that think that inequality has not been falling lately they could easily just say I'm talking about my own country most of them can't time to be correct but the states there's a big jump in wealth inequality though around 2007 here we have the Chinese again income inequality I'm just doing the analysis from the bottom picture here income inequality fairly flat wealth inequality definitely trending up in China quite considerably India, Ditto and Brazil now you're a slight fall apparently in income inequality but wealth inequality again not really showing any falling pattern and higher at the end than it was in the beginning South Africa fairly flat I can go through all these sort of countries Russia is always a bit of a problem it's quite erratic it depends rather heavily on the top tail adjustments but again in all of these countries there isn't really the notion that income inequality isn't really doing very much global income inequality is probably going down for at least a good part of the global composition effect and this is again for Africa as a whole I'm probably running out of time so I just thought it might be I noticed that Martin did a sort of decomposition into within and between inequality I'm not sure I'd have to look at that but my feeling is that that's not the right way to do it and I was trying to construct some numbers and produce them but I didn't get that finished in time but essentially it would perhaps answer this question about to what extent the composition effects are responsible for what's happening to the global trend I will certainly be doing that in the future so here's just I just thought because we're in Finland and may have some Finnish members of the audience who are desperate to know what's happening to Finland here's our figures for Finland again income inequality it doesn't seem to have done much in the last 20 years wealth inequality not really increasing up to the year 2000 to the crisis but has been increasing since then although I should make a caveat here that Finland we do do some we do an adjustment using the we're merging the Forbes billionaire data and we're smoothing the series out but it is still there's only a small number of billionaires in Finland so there is a small sample problem which does qualify the results and just finally yes okay I'm on zero and that's very convenient because I'm just finishing with Sweden again the same sort of thing it's getting a bit boring isn't it income inequality in all these countries really seems to be pretty flat but wealth inequality is fluctuating at a bit and certainly higher at the end of the period than perhaps it was at the beginning okay thank you very much