 Something I really wanted to take with you is that closings happen every single day by the truck loads. How did I realize this and make a video about it? Two reasons, one, whenever I see a retraction in transactions, I know the demand is building. You know how easy it would be? It's not only sell properties for half price, but to buy the properties for half price. So not only are we going to get relief from inflation and 30-year fix going down, but also this spread is going to equal out to what it's historically been. How are we going to get back? You know guys, in 2017-18-19, we were still low on inventory. If it doubles the inventory, we'll right back where we were and which was low anyway, we've got wire 5% of these 14 million homes going to sell. There's no reason for them to sell A and B, they're not going to do it the same day. How we doing? Are you guys excited to be here? Even after lunch? Yeah, so I'm Ricky Kruth. I've been in the real estate industry for over 21 years now. I'm going to blow your mind about the real estate market today. But first, I want to ask you guys, what image or what words pop into your mind when you hear the word Alabama? I was in New York several months ago and asked that question and they said, mud. And then I was in Orlando and they said, civil rights. And I said, this is not going the direction. Let's see where we had on the slides. There we go. Alright, so this is actually where I grew up in Alabama. Did you guys know that Alabama had beaches like this? Okay, some yes, most no. This is where I've sold real estate as a real estate agent for over 21 years, mostly those condos right on the beach. Florida extends into Alabama good 40 miles and it's just absolutely beautiful. If you guys have never been there and never heard of it, if you're looking for a good Airbnb, the property taxes are incredible. The returns are incredible. Reach out to me. I'll be glad to help you find one. But this is where I grew up and I got a real estate when I was 20. I'll give you the short of it. It was 2002. There was no social media. There was none of this stuff that's available to everyone now. I had to do it the old way and I made a million dollars before I'm 23, 22, 23 when the market blew up. To make a long story short, because I got 13 minutes left, I lost everything when the market crashed, went back to roofing houses, sleeping in my car, eating out of people's refrigerators, homeless. I was bankrupt and I eventually landed a job on an oil rig before I got laid off from that and back in real estate in 2008. 2008 to 2014, I built my business the right way and one of the greatest lessons that I ever learned during that time, something I really wanted to take with you is that closings happen every single day by the truckloads, regardless of market conditions. It took me having to lose everything, going back to nothing to realize this. But this is the greatest lesson that I ever learned. When you actually understand this, then you're not scared of the market and you become invincible. I want to break down the market where we are right now currently. Let's start with how the US is faring against these other countries since the pricing peak last year of these other countries. You can see that we're crushing these other countries in terms of how far we are down on prices from the 2022 peak compared to these other countries. We're doing well. We just had existing home sales report up 14.5% big jump month over month. Still a little down year over year, but huge jump month over month. Now, what's the media talking about? Right? Crash, burn. And so we're seeing articles like this. Prices fall in February for the first time in 11 years. And you know what's so confusing about this is because their tagline, prices down for the first time in 11 years. However, US sales of existing homes jumped 14.5%. What are you trying to tell me, Mr. Wall Street Journal? I'm confused. This is prices. This is medium prices. This is something I really want to get across because people don't realize prices are going up right now. We bottomed out a good 30 days ago. Does everybody understand this? Who here is in real estate in some capacity? Make some noise. Okay, cool. So we're up price-wise. Not only from the bottom, but for the year, we're higher. 344 was the low, 361. Now I looked in Vegas, I looked in LA, I looked in Miami, I looked in Jersey, I looked in New York, Miami, Dallas, everywhere, Austin. All of them have the same trend. Up from the bottom and positive on the year. But people are still saying it's going to crash harder than 2008. And it just depends on, let's go back. You see we're negative year over year. The blue is under the black with this 2022. That's why the articles are coming out. Prices down year over year. Let's see some articles about prices up from last month. Which I just saw the first one yesterday. But it just depends on who you're talking to. This is realtor.com, median listing price, still positive year over year. 6%. Just depends on who you're talking to and how they collect their data. What were we all doing on April 28, 2020? Do you remember? We were locked up in our houses. Quarantining. The economy was shut down. I posted this video, why real estate will surge as soon as the economy reopens. What happened? The real estate surge is harder than we've ever seen. How did I realize this and make a video about it? Two reasons. One, whenever I see a retraction in transactions, I know that demand is building. It's like right now. We're on track to do 4.6 million transactions in the US this year. Two years ago was 6 million. Last year was 5 million. This is a retraction. This is doing nothing but building demand in a very low inventory market. When we took this quarantine and 20% last transactions, I said here we go and add stimulus to that. This is not rocket science, guys. Let me take a second to say, if it did crash harder than 2008, good. You know how easy it would be to not only sell properties for half price, but to buy the properties for half price? We win either way, ladies and gentlemen. You're in a win-win scenario, no matter what. Go all in because a lot of you are not committed because you don't know if it'll work. Let's talk about mortgage rates, which are driven by inflation, not the Fed fund rate. You can see it's driven by inflation. It's also driven by the ten-year treasury. Look at this spread historically. 1.75% to 2% historically. We're at 3% spread right now. Why are we at a 3% spread? Because the mortgage people know that people are going to refinance when rates go down. They're not even going to be able to keep that loan very long. People are going to refinance, so they've got to make money on it when they can. Not only are we going to get relief from inflation and 30-year fix going down, but also this spread is going to equal out to what it's historically been. For real estate people in the room, are you guys seeing multiple offers in your market right now? Yeah. This is something I've been talking about for months and months and months. Recessions, we're headed to a recession. Mortgage rates go down in recessions. Real estate prices go up. The only time they didn't was 2008. Bring a recession on. Let prices go up, let mortgage rates come down, but even if that doesn't happen, I'm going to still continue to crush it. I don't care about any of this, because why? Closings happen every single day forever, no matter what. And there's always an opportunity. Let's talk about the real housing crisis that everyone needs to be talking about. I'm going to leave this right here for just a second and let this digest. This is houses for sale in America going back to 80. Look at where we were in the 80s. It was 2 million to 3 million homes with half the population and half the homes that exist. And look at where we are now. Look at where we were in 2008. Is this mind blowing? To think about that we're not even half of the inventory that we were in the 80s? This is the real housing crisis. Now let's zoom in. You see the last 10 years there? Let's zoom in on that. Every single year inventory shoots to the moon and drops like a rock. Every single year, including 2021, the year of the boom, the year of the multiple offers and 100,000 over asking price. Inventory still went up during that year. If we look at data, we start to realize this is all cyclical, completely cyclical. And guess what? You never see any of this going to zero. Building your short and long term confidence in the market is what I want to accomplish today. This is also active listings. You can see we're right in line with where we were in 2021. And you see where 2020 is. This is 17, 18, 19 at the very top. And here we are pink. How are we going to get back? You know guys, in 2017, 18, 19, we were still low on inventory as a country of what we needed. How are we even going to get back there? I don't know. And that's the real crisis here. It's not going to come from traditional existing home sellers. They're sitting on 4% rates. 85% of people are sitting on 4% rates. It's not going to come from builders who slack back 30%. They couldn't even keep up anyway. It's not going to come from the 14 million. That's the new thing from the doom and gloomers. There's 14 million vacant houses in America. If only 5% of those list, then it's going to double the inventory. If it doubles the inventory, we're right back where we were, which was low anyway. But why are 5% of these 14 million homes going to sell? There's no reason for them to sell A and B. They're not going to do it the same day. Foreclosures. It's going to be this crazy recession. We're going to see so many foreclosures. We're not even halfway back to pre-pandemic levels. I'm going to rush through these because it says 436. Equity in America. Average equity in a household. 58%. How are you going to foreclose on somebody where they're delinquent on their note? They can just sell and make 100,000 today. I'm late on my note. I'll just sell it and make 150 today. Yes, there are about 300,000 houses that were bought with VA loans and FHA and government loans for 3.5% who are under water right now that bought in June. They didn't buy it to sell it next year. You guys don't understand how incredibly solid this market is. Fannie Mae says we're going to drop in prices 4.2% this year, 2.3% next year. Even if that happens, you see the last line. Prices are still up 29% from March 2020 pre-pandemic. But you guys see the pricing chart that I just laid out. We're positive on the year. Where it goes from here? I don't know. I'm just telling you what it is and that I don't care what it does. This is mind-blowing. This is total sales. You see every single year drops, starts out dropping, starts rebounding same time every year. But look at the similarities, the peaks and valleys. And look in there at the end where 2020 caught up with 2021. You can barely see the red line in some of those instances. It's so seasonal. It's not even funny. This is mind-blowing to me when I saw this for the first time. Mortgage applications, 1994 low. When I see this chart, I see a 2004 that it was twice as much as 2021 which was one of our biggest years. I also see the low which is close to where the low is now in 2010, 11, 12, 13, 14 which was some of the most amazing years to be in real estate. This means nothing. Now, every time we see a dip in mortgage rates, we see an increase in pending sales, existing home sales. So what does all this mean for your business? Anybody? I can't hear you but it sounds... What's that? Abundance. I don't even know how to place that into this situation. That's wild. I'll tell you what it means. Straight up. Why'd you spend all that time on it? Because it's mind-blowing to see the data and realize it doesn't even matter. Because of this. I'm going to blow through these. I've got two minutes. The market always serves us back 110% every time. Right? We're on track to hit 4.6 million sales. Last time that happened was 2012. One of the most amazing years of my life. This was actually my business. What I did in 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 got me to 100 deals a year by 2014. I didn't do anything different. I did the same stuff but the market expanding expanded my business because I expanded my market share. Which, by the way, are property owners who know who you are. Who you've created friendships with. How many friends do you have in the market? Whether you're an investor, real estate agent, anything. Any business. I was the number one in my entire MLS for eight years in a row. Single agent. You don't see team next to much. Team, team. Okay. Where's the opportunity right now? I'm going to talk to agents and I want to talk to investors. For agents, we've got 23 active listings. Most we've had in like four years. How do you stack listings? By making friends or property owners. This is super simple. Here's what you need to do every day. You ready for this? Boom. Create five new friends or property owners every single day. If you do that for five years, 250 working days a year, that's 6,000 over the course of five years. If you're doing a weekly email to your entire database on the same day that we forever, how big is your business if you talk to and made five new friends or property owners every single day, right, built the database of 6,000, they get a weekly email from you that you created on the same day that we every week forever. How big is your business? You're the number one agent or investor or whatever you do in your market. Watch the MLS Hot Sheet every day. Make calls from 9 to 12 every day and I don't care who you call. And do social media all afternoon. It's the blueprint. This is super simple. If you want to close one deal a week, have 15 to 20 active buyers and sellers at all times. You want to close two deals a week, which I've done for nine years in a row, but I've had a lot of buyers and sellers at all times. The problem is most people only working with four. That's it. Statistically you're working on zero. Nothing. That's .8 deals statistically. And once you build your database up to the point where when I got to 10,000, I was closing 100 deals a year, now I don't prospect anymore. That's the dream I want to sell you guys today. You can have the business of your dreams if you build the database and put that sweat equity into your business in a fashion where people are always going to come back to you forever and refer all their friends and family to you. Now you've got a business where people aren't interviewing three agents or investors or whatever it is that you want to do. This can be applied to anything. And I don't sell you anything. I have seven or eight courses all for free at zero2diamond.com. All my scripts, videos of me calling prospects live, tutorials, 60-day challenges, anything that you want. Now, survey shows. 7 out of 10 agents get more listings, close more deals. They go through the 60-day challenge. 87% have better time management. 75% read more. 98.8% enjoy being a real estate agent more. .000475 found their significant other on ZTD. This dude said, I got 30 Actives Under Contrast coming soon after 12 months of using your method. I met the love of my life through ZTD. Will you marry us? I was like, are y'all engaged? He says, dead serious, not yet, but soon. We met six months ago through ZTD. I said, I'll marry you. So you know what I went out and did. Oh my God. That's really them, by the way. Just kidding. What about investors? Real simple stuff, guys. Real simple stuff. My goal this year is to buy 100 million myself. I want to do business with you guys. If you've got multifamily commercial deals you want me to look at, DM me on Instagram. I answer every single message myself personally. Send me deals. If you want to go in on deals with me, let me know. I want to do business with you guys in the real estate investing world. This is my book. List the last how to survive every real estate market crash. Now what I want to do is I'm going to mail out 20 signed copies of this and give two of you just a one-on-one call just to collaborate or whatever. Just text me the word book at this number. 251-312-8844. Your phones aren't out. I'm just kidding. These are my socials. Instagram. YouTube. Okay, I'm going to leave you with this. Always value relationships over transactions every single time. Which means when I lost everything it was because I didn't do this. When I got back in the business it was about what I could do for my prospect not what they could do for me. When I talk to a prospect I do not care if they want to or need to or buy or sell from me or not. I just want the opportunity to get to know them see what it is they do want to do and try to figure out how it can help them do it. Make sense? Now, the power of four. Every time I do an event, a Zoom call, a challenge, I say, who all is going to do this? Everybody says me. They go back. I come back a week later. I say, okay, who all did it for? I don't care if there's a thousand, two thousand, four, ten, a hundred. Four people normally follow through. That's a week. You think about the people that actually execute on what they learn here today over the next ten years to do something special. Like, what a lot of successful people that come on this stage have in common and they didn't do anything crazy. They were just willing to see opportunities and work really hard and be super patient. So if you're going to be one of the four people in this room that takes something away, go execute for ten years and do something special, make some noise. Okay, number one, that was weak. And number two, there can only be four of you guys. So let's try that again. Who are the four people in this room that are going to take something you learn today and go crush it? There's still too many. That's my time. I'm past my time. I love you guys. Thank you.