 Welcome back straight to our first major conversation right here on the breakfast, President, a presidential candidate of the ruling of Progressive Congress, the APC Ashurajibola Ahmed Tirabu may have begun consultations with critical stakeholders of the party to receive imputes on the choice of his running mate according to reports. Now the Progressive Congress standard bearer yesterday met with Northern Governors of the party behind closed doors. Now while the APC is certain to go north for its pick the part of the north which it chooses to pull the lucky one from, that's to be Tirabu's running mate, is equally germane to several other considerations as much as religion which is a chief factor in Nigeria's north. Now ironically Tirabu a Muslim Sardinia is surrounded by majorly, majorly by more Muslim's war from the north than the Christian brothers from that part of the country mostly Muslims. Now in order words or in other words rather the APC ticket appears to lean more some suspect to a Muslim-Muslim pairing than a Christian or a Muslim-Christian blend. Now this is a very unique situation that the ruling party finds itself in. What will it do going forward and what will be the resultant effect on the outcome of the elections? Joining us to discuss this and the possible names for the job is public affairs analyst Nick Agouli. Nick Agouli good morning to you. Thank you very much for your time. Good morning, thank you for welcoming me and good morning to all of you guys. Right, Nick there was a flurry of reactions during the All Progressives Congress special convention where one aspirant Nicholas Fennix said that Nigeria does not need a Muslim-Muslim ticket and he's stepping down for Vice-President Yamio Shibajina. That was the first time we had about that idea. Along the line Tirabu's campaign put out a statement saying some text messages that were flying out purportedly from him or his campaign saying there would be a Muslim-Muslim ticket are not true. Now if you listen to our introduction, it seems that the party has more chances at the probability of producing a Muslim running mate from Tirabu from the north, a higher than producing a Christian running mate from the north for Tirabu. What's your analysis of this? Are you here me? Yes we can Nick Agouli we can hear you please go on. I don't know if it's a microphone setting but you didn't come across in your second half of your question. I heard the first half which is one of the presidential candidates pitching his tent with the Vice-President Professor Yamio Shibajina. Okay, okay. But I didn't hear the second part of the question. So I'm saying that the party from the introduction that we had, what I would say was that the party seems to be leaning a lot of political observers are saying towards a Muslim-Muslim pairing rather than a Muslim-Christian pairing simply because you have more possibilities or more names that are coming up from the north who are Muslims than those who are Christians from the northern part of Nigeria. So what's your analysis of this? So the possibility is do you think the party is leaning more towards a possible Muslim-Muslim pairing or a Muslim-Christian pairing and is this really important in the scheme of things? Hope you heard that. Yes I heard that. Thank you very much for the question. I think the APHC has gotten a lot of work to do because like you already said either way whether they go with a Muslim-Muslim ticket or a Muslim-Christian ticket they are going to be confronted with a lot of political challenges that they will need to deal with. If we look at a Muslim-Muslim ticket the APHC will be trying to match the fact that the PDP have fielded a northern Muslim as their presidential candidate because the fact of the matter is that there are many people in the north who wouldn't take a southern Muslim as in like a southwest Muslim in Bola-Ahmed-Tinibu to be a Muslim that they are going to cast their votes for. So the APHC now needs a cold northern Muslim to back up that ticket so that they can rule the cold northern voters to also back their ticket. On the other hand there are many Nigerians that we have issues backing a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Perhaps this wouldn't have been an issue a couple of years ago but the past seven years of Nigeria have brought these religious differences to the fore of national discourse and when you look at events that are happening especially given that people who are alleged not even alleged now the federal government has come out to say the OUO massacre was actually caused and perpetrated by the Islamic state of West African province, ISIL. So Nigerians will be very cautious to back a Muslim-Muslim ticket given all that has been happening in our country in the recent years. So the APHC would then like to balance that up since they cannot go a south south ticket they would like to now go a south north ticket but the northerner should be a Christian so that they can balance those sentiments. Again if the APHC says they want to go with a ticket of Bola-Ahmed Tinibu and a northern Muslim again the issues I have earlier said are going to come into play. So bottom line here is that it is going to be a difficult decision for the APHC to make but they are going to look at the candidate because I think the determining factor here is going to be that candidate that will be the vice presidential candidate. I think in the minds of Nigerians if the APHC goes with someone like Baba Ghana Zulu even though it's a Muslim and it will make a Muslim-Muslim ticket I believe that Nigerians a lot of Nigerians will be happy to back such a ticket but if they go with any of the core northern Muslims whose pedigree will sound like people who could be fanatical or who could be you know let me say holding fast onto their religion as in backing things like the mother of a person who blasphemes the name of the prophet. Nigerians we will be very concerned with such a ticket and I think it will be a difficult one for the APHC. Interesting analysis but just for message comes in you're saying that just to understand you that the core northern vote of voters do not consider Muslims who are from southern Nigeria for instance Tirubu as maybe first class or pure as pure Muslims is that what you're saying because I mean why wouldn't they they accept that as a Muslim on the ticket Tirubu is a Muslim? Absolutely that absolutely that is the reality of the fact the reality of the fact see the southwest Muslims as being moderates and I mean I'm not a Muslim but I have heard that there are some of the core northern fanatical Muslims that we not even attend the same mosque with southwest Muslims or we attend the mosques where the Imam is a southwest Muslim so those issues that there they are being conversed is the reality we live with and I believe that the problem that the APC had was the fact that the PDP selected a core northern Muslim because now you know there's a possibility that even some of the APC governors in the north especially those who were not backing power shift to the south may even work against the interest of the APC or even back the the the the presidential candidature of Attico Abubakar who is a core northern Muslim so so those realities are there and this is the these are all the parameters and the dynamics that the APC will have to consider in picking the running mate to their presidential candidate Bola Ahmad all right let's take a look at the scenario I mean of course the 1993 elections you had a biola at the time having a running mate a Baganah king iqbe Muslim Muslim tickets a lot of persons have said that that cannot be it could not be replicated at the time certain time prior to this time where he felt like we're going to have a consideration in 2015 that didn't happen and a lot of persons are still saying that that can never be an issue so are you saying that there's a possibility that we would have you know a replica that combination and acceptance of 1993 where you had a Muslim Muslim tickets was citing the example of a biola and king iqbe 1993 Nigeria bought a muslim muslim ticket but the times have since changed from 1993 which is almost 30 years ago to now especially especially like I said in the last seven years of this current government I mean if we looked at the elections in 2015 Nigerians could have easily backed a muslim muslim ticket if they saw that the two muslims on the ticket were capable or delivering good governance to them but that has changed because from 2015 we have had muslim fanatics parading either as Boko Haram terrorist or bandits or kidnappers coming into Nigerian territory causing mayhem kidnapping many killing Nigerian citizens and the body language at the center which is being heard by a muslim corner the muslim suggests that they are not interested in going after these people look at what happened in Owo recently the Owo massacre I said in on those states so I'm very well knowledgeable about the geography of that area Owo is in the middle of south Nigeria in the middle of south Nigeria and you have bandits come into that place shoot ki mem and it is alleged by the victims the survivors that even explosives were detonated and they walk away casually walk away nobody after them yet we have a chief of defense staff of the armed forces of Nigeria who as I speak is sitting in his office we have the service chiefs we have the inspector general police we have all the security agencies that are just watching these people cause mayhem in Nigeria and they are not going after them you see security incidents can happen anywhere in the world recently there was a madman I will call him a madman because he has to be mentally deranged in in America who went into a primary school and was shooting school children that happened there but the difference between that case and the Nigerian case is that there was a security response even now the head of security in that stage have been questioned because they they feel the response was not swift enough but in Nigeria there is no response at all as I speak now the over 60 hostages that were taken on the train from Abuja to Kaduna as tea in the forest that forest is on the territory of Nigeria is not as if it's in a foreign land and yet we have a security architecture that is commanded by a core northern Muslim that is not going after these people how can Nigerian citizens behave hostage in the forest with the rain falling on them how they are feeding how they are living is not a border to the security agencies that they haven't gone to that place condoned off that forest combed that forest and either kill the bandits or arrest them so that Nigerian citizens gain their freedom those people are in that forest now for several months on Nigerian soil so the commander in chief on Nigerian embossies who is a corner there muslim has a burden of guilt to say that why is it that the Nigerian embossies that were so celebrated all over the world as the wonder was clinical in the execution of corporations can no longer move to confront these bandits and terrorists that have taken over Nigeria this is what is happening in the country today and Nigerians are thinking about it Nigerians are saying is commander in chief not doing enough because these guys are muslims they are fighting a jihad or why is he not doing enough and that is going to affect not the Nigerian voting pattern especially Nigerians of north central down to the south if the apc comes up with a muslim muslim ticket especially if the choice of that vice presidential candidate is someone like a rufa a rufa ordinarily an urban educated young muslim governor you can see what is happening in kaduna state you can see what's happening in kaduna state from him saying i am going to be settling the bandits and the terrorists so that they don't kill my people to him taking no action at all against what they are doing and to him making all sorts of commentaries that has now made kaduna to become the fertile ground for insurgency for banditry for kidnapping Nigerians are going to be very edgy with that kind of ticket so it's time to go down and you've already started them so that's great to look at the individual names that are being mentioned out there you've started with a rufa and though i mean he cannot be be be blamed for directly instigating or influencing banditry i mean maybe his strategies may not have been perfect or right but he's been calling on the federal government to help you know you know trying to put out statistics and doing what he can maybe the methods have not been right but but moving on from that and he's the first northern governor was the first northern governor to speak out in support of a power shift in the apc to the southern part of the country and he sustained his support for power shifts in the apc to the southern part of Nigeria till the very very end doesn't this put him in good stead for such a uh opposition as running mates to bola metinubu the first side is that the governor of kaduna state madam nasi rufa could have been playing a political game he saw that okay if i come out supporting power should become the vice presidential candidate of the party if a presidential candidate is chosen from the south so that could be one side of it it could just be his own political ambition that actually pushed him into taking such a stand very early on during the campaigns all right are you there uh nick all right uh interesting analysis that another name on you in office okay nick agole if you can hear me another name that has been uh um uh heard or mentioned of course you put it that way better is um abdelai gandu j and who towards the uh latter part of bola metinubu's rounds you know around the country uh visiting different states to confer and consult and uh meet with the delegates of the uprogressives congress uh was seen gandu j was quite visible uh on some of the visits of tinibu to kalaba to other parts of the country um he is governor of a northwest state khanu state which um is one of the biggest states in the country along with leaguer state um uh lots of votes could come in from khanu for the uprogressives congress khanu is influential is the center of northern nigeria um and uh this is putsim in vantu what's your analysis of um gandu j who is a muslim and um his his chances uh of of of you know clenching that vp slot so if the apc goes with governor gandu j uh first and foremost it will be good for the apc in terms of matching whatever advantage the pdp would have got by selecting attico abu bhakar also a northern muslim as their presidential candidate again khanu like you said is a big state but it's one of the states that determine elections in agiria khanu and boronua think that determine elections in agiria because of the huge voter numbers they have you can also see that governor gandu j is in control of the delegates from khanu because khanu voted massively for abola hame tinibu however the question will be asked by nigerians will be what has governor gandu j done in khanu state in the past seven years that will make him to be a worthy vice president what has he done what are the transformational uh steps or projects that khanu uh have in have enjoyed or benefited under his government how has he managed the resources that have been entrusted to him either from the federation account or his own internally generated revenue nigerians will be thinking about in the early days of his uh government uh we woke became uh popularly called the gandola the gandola gate people will be thinking about all those things so i think um the ticket of abola hame tinibu and gandu j gandu j will be a minus to that ticket more than the advantages he's going to bring to it now we have we have other names um show uh the likes of simon lalong the likes of a boss mustapha who is the secretary of the government of the federation have also been mentioned kassim ibrahim imam was a former pdp governorship candidate uh in 2003 and 2007 in bonus state has already been um uh mentioned as well abu bhakar badaru who tinibu um eurogized on that stage at the eagle square in abu j when he was called on to give his um acceptance speech he had and communes for uh uh governor of jigawa state badaru who is another force among the governors within the apc with a promising political uh career and you mentioned abu bhakar azulam who you defined how you described as a sort of a moderates um uh seem to be a moderate muslim with quite a some achievements in bonus state especially the area of us education um so so these these are the names um uh you seem to be saying that a moderate muslim will be more acceptable to the southern part of nigeria but in ending do you feel that southern nigeria will accept a muslim muslim ticket will they win the vote of the southwest south south and southeast thank you very much for that question so in a nutshell a muslim muslim ticket is going to be a very hard sell in nigeria of today especially with the invites in the last seven years except that muslim vice presidential candidate is someone that will come to be accepted nigerians of which propaganda zulum stands out as that muslim northern muslim vice presidential candidate the rest of the other people names that have been mentioned are going to be very difficult to sell my advice to the apc is that they shouldn't go for a muslim muslim ticket they should go for a muslim south and northern christian ticket and bolah hame tinibu and the apc don't have to look only within the political circles for them northern christian that will be acceptable both to the north and to the south they can go outside of the political circles and they can even look at technocrats they can look at people who have not uh been in the political equation as in when they are selected other people we don't want to back them even within those political circles that's another way they can look at it but a muslim muslim ticket is going to be a very very hard sell except maybe for someone like uh governor zulum what's the apc we have to let you go now i mean very interesting in all of this is the fact that you have mentioned that in 1993 i mean adreans were going to accept uh you know muslim muslim ticket and what has happened afterwards in 1993 up until this moment uh it caused for a lot of thinking and concern does it necessarily mean that Nigerians are very religious and you know very um ethnic in in terms of elections what what what really was different in 1993 is what a lot of peasants would constantly question but that's the much we can take at this point in time we appreciate your time and we look forward to sharing more of your thoughts on the breakfast thank you very much and thanks for having me today and good morning to our viewers what i said uh that's the much we can take on off the press i beg your pardon on our first major conversation this morning we'll take a break when we return we'll be looking at niger and serial loan and the fact that you know we had a uh you know victory recorded the victory uh super eagles and with the new coach please stay with us