 Hey everyone, welcome to this weekend's video update. Today's Thursday, April 9th. Obviously, the market's closed tomorrow, so we are at the end of our week. Let's review all of the trade alerts, all the positions. But first, let's talk about who got caught being hot in the community. This week goes to our friend Dennis Price. Congrats, Dennis. Dennis had some technical issues with with Thinkorswim and shared with the community first to ask questions and then went with Thinkorswim support to get everything figured out. Maybe not the solution he exactly wanted, but it was it was awesome to see just the detail that he shared with the community because I know it helped some others as well. So congrats Dennis. Keep up the heat. You got caught being hot. I appreciate all the comments and feedback from the community to Dennis and his question as well. It's great. It's always great to see how the community comes together to help each other. All right, so let's jump into the alerts for the week and I'll talk about the market overall as we kind of go through these. Starting with the 6th Monday opening trade. So we added a double calendar in SPX. At this point there at the front, we've only had three days to expiration. I talked about this in length in another video and in the community about why we chose that three days. But essentially the vol differential, the volatility differential in these expiration cycles was attractive and that's why we added to this position with with less days than normal. And so we closed that out today. I had to take a loss on it. So I'll talk about that here in a second when we get to that alert. Next trade, rolling adjusting trade in ZB. So we've got two sets of ZB short strangles. This one was down to 18 days to expiration. So we rolled that out to 46 and adjusted our puts up a little bit. So let's pull up ZB. ZB's been coming down nicely for us since we've since we've done these rolls. If we take a look, you know, we've had this nice little down move in bonds. And so that's really helped our positions. In fact, if we look at both of these together, let me make this a little bigger for you. If we look at both of these positions together, we're up. We've gotten back $4,500 in profit just since the roll. So coming in nicely. So if we take a look at these each separately, here's one of them. Price is, like I said, coming down. We could use a little bit even more downside action. And then the other one right here, getting almost to a point of delta neutrality in that one. So what we'll probably do, well, it depends on where we're at with everything, but there's a possibility we may just close one of these out and then just continue to manage the other one with the ability to potentially add back in, you know, if price bounces around too much or volatility spikes again. So that's the plan. As of now, we're going to continue on with both of these. We're both of them are in the 43 day expiration cycle. So we've got a good amount of time. But if this one, for example, makes a quick move lower and we're well over 50% of max profit, we will either just close this or roll it out to the next cycle, even if we're not down to that 21 day period. So look for that in bonds. Next trade closing trade in SPY. So we had an iron duck with prices running higher. We booked a beak profit on our spy duck. Next trade opening adjusting trade in GC in gold. So we added an iron condor in gold and then actually today we took off the put vertical side of our other one. So we've got two different pieces here. Let me start with the alert. That was this full iron condor here. And you can see we're up a couple hundred bucks since we put that on. And that one is out in July in the June cycle with 47 days to expiration. And we still had an iron condor in this cycle, which currently has 18 days. Price ran higher. So we ended up taking closing the untested side. And so we now still have the call vertical side. So we need a little bit of downside action in gold to get back into range there. So you can see we've had a pretty stout move to the upside in gold. So if we get a little bit of a retracement back into range, we'll close that one out and still continue to manage our full iron condor. Next trade opening adjusting trade in ZW. So we added an iron condor in wheat and then right after that closed our other one. So it was essentially like a roll. We don't technically roll iron condors, but we basically closed one out open to do it in the next cycle. And so let's check that out. Wheat's been bouncing around pretty good, but this is pretty well centered up a little bit since we put it on, just waiting for some more time to pass in wheat. Next trade opening adjusting trade in IWM. So we added a long put vertical. So what I'm missing an M right there should be IWM. So we, as this market has been rallying over the last couple of weeks, we've been adding in some short delta. In this case, we added in IWM. So if we take a look at that, so we've got two different long put verticals here. This is the one we put on. I mean, IWM is really raised higher even just since we put this on. So it's a little bit out of range. And then the other one is further out of range. So we've gotten punished a little bit on this up move on some of our current short delta positions, but let's just talk about the market overall at this point. I think it's a good, good point to talk about it. So, and I've talked about this in some of the trade hacker updates throughout the week, but, you know, I just, I don't believe this rally. I just, I can't, I can't see this market just continuing to rip higher in the face of what we've got going on. And I, one of the videos I put out titled, don't get sucked into the stimulus. Yes, we have a ton of money coming into the system. Yes, rates are at zero. Yes, the money, you know, the government is trying to do everything they can for small business and individuals and send them money. But man, I just, you know, this thing could linger on longer. I mean, you know, the state home order right now is through April 30th. And who knows if that's going to hold, right? I mean, are we going to, are we really going to go back into the workforce full, full force when, when the coronavirus is still very prevalent? And, and there's, you know, the, the clinical trials for the for the vaccine are going to take 18 months before they're available. And so, you know, I just, unless, you know, everybody's going to go back to work, but everybody's going to have to wear full, full suits and masks. I just, I don't know. And so I just, I just don't see. I think this is just a little bit of a relief rally and we're going to roll back over. So, yeah, it sucks kind of taking some heat on our short positions as this thing climbs higher, but we've been layering in little by little, some more short Delta. And by the way, we are not overly short at all. I mean, we are more, we're pretty close to Delta neutral at this point, even in the face of adding these short Delta positions. I'll talk about the bunker strategies we've added and some of these verticals. So, yeah, we're taking a little heat on the upside, but, you know, you're never going to pick the tops, never going to pick the bottoms. And so I am completely cool. In fact, I like where we're sitting as far as our overall portfolio positioning. So that's IWM. Next trade, opening trade in SPY. So we added a bunker in SPY. And if we take a look, we did this in July with the 99 day options. So let's take a look at that. I've got SPY. Now we've got several different positions on in SPY. And so I try not to do this too much because it can be confusing. However, these are all in different expiration cycles and all with different numbers of contracts. So it should be easily trackable in thinkorswim or whatever platform you're using. And so let's take a look at the bunker that we just put on. And it's pretty, pretty close to where we put it on. Price is hanging out right here. So, you know, we've got a market rips higher. We've got an upside risk of a 400 to 500 bucks, depending on where price is. And again, we'll close out of this about 60 days before the options expire. So just looking for a potential big downside move. And that's where we benefit from this thing. So, you know, if we get back down to what was the low in SPY, about 218. I mean, if we think about it, if we get back to that level, you know, we're talking about being up a couple of thousand dollars on this trade. Now, it depends on how quickly it happens and all that stuff. But that's kind of the goal of putting this on. We've got very little risk to the upside, but we've got massive potential to the downside. So I like those odds right now. Next trade, closing trade in GC. So that's the one I mentioned. We closed out the put vertical side on our 18 day to expiration iron condor. Did an opening trade in SPY. So we added a new weekly double calendar in SPY. And let's take a look at that. So on this one, we did this with the options. Did this with the options, uh, with eight days to expiration and the back week had 11. And the reason we chose that is obviously it's kind of in our wheelhouse for the front week days to expiration, but also you've got a situation where the front week of all is a little bit higher than the back week fall. Now, nothing like it was before for sure, but still still sets up well for this type of trade. So anytime you can sell the options with a little bit higher and buy the back week with a little bit lower, that's that's typically going to set up well. You know, if you look at some of these others, they've got higher 39, 41, you know, so you just got to sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn't. If we take a look at what that looks like, um, click off the bunker here and click on our double calendar. I also did this in SPY as opposed to SPX, uh, just to help out some of our account holders who have smaller accounts. And because you can really do this at any level. We did 10 contracts, uh, and it's, you know, using about 11, 1200 bucks in buying power, starting off with about a 60% pop, which again, you know, just a couple of weeks ago, putting these on, we were having 70, 75%, 80 plus, pop at initiation. Now, obviously these break evens can fluctuate during, uh, during the life of the trade that the max profit can go up and down based on volatility swings. So this is just at initiation, but hopefully this one works out well for us. We've got eight days to expiration on this. We'll get out kind of closer to expiration, either the day of or the day before. And then, um, and then while we're on SPY, we've also got this iron condor. So this one's got five contracts. You can see price with this up move price is hanging out up here. Squeeze this together a little bit. Price is hanging out right up here in the upper end of the range, but still well within our, well within our range. So just waiting for some more time to pass there. And then lastly, the last two alerts were the SPX weekly double calendar. So we had one contract in one had two contracts in the other. And, you know, that's the one thing I hate about these short duration trades is you get your, you can get yourself in a position where obviously the gamma accelerates, meaning the, the P and L swings as you get closer to, uh, expiration accelerates. And so, you know, small moves can have a big impact on your P and L. And so that's what we're seeing here. Let me get rid of these. Um, but, you know, what you're seeing here is, you know, we, we, we were on the kind of the edge of our range, you know, yesterday near the close and then it opened up, gapped up, went a little bit higher. We, you know, came back down. And so we, we had to take losses on these trades. Uh, and that's, that's the risk that you have with the short duration trades, you know, with more duration, you have more time to extend duration. You have more time to let price move around. When you get to these short duration trades, you've got to make a decision in that last day or two, as far as when you're going to take it off. Obviously in hindsight, we wish we took, took it off yesterday morning. We would have booked a profit at least on the, on the two contract one. Of course, price ran higher and so we ended up taking a loss on those, but you're still, still obviously a great strategy. We just, um, you know, sometimes the market wins and this time it got us. So all good though. Uh, our account was actually still PNL wise, still, uh, I think pretty even for the day, even after taking those, those couple losses and those, so very, very, uh, good diversification in our portfolio. Uh, let's see. And then, so those are all the trade alerts. Uh, let's take a look at some of the other positions starting with six E, six E, making a little bit of a bounce higher, which is helping our, uh, what's currently a short straddle was a strangle. So making back some profits there. We've got how much time we have, we've got 29 days. So in the next couple of weeks here, we'll be rolling that out to June or potentially closing dependent, depending on where we're at with everything. Uh, CL oil was up today and then is that pretty good up here? And then it, it kind of tailed off, uh, sold off pretty hard the last, last part of the day, but we've got two different pieces in here. We've got this short strangle, uh, which, um, seems like we've been in for quite a while, but we've had very little theta decay right when we put this on Ivy spiked, which pushed this PNL line down. And so now we've just been getting back up to, to even and so still well within range here, just waiting for some more time to pass in that one. And then our other piece, which is this adjusted strangle, since we've done the role, we've made back about four grand, uh, on that. So if we can get a little bit more up movement in price, uh, that, that'll give us some more PNL back in that one. And we'll continue to manage these similar to what I was saying in bonds. You know, we may cut one of these, one of these loose to, uh, lower our exposure in this symbol. Uh, you know, these are big contracts. So having two different pieces, uh, for the size of portfolio is a pretty big exposure as far as overall allocation. And so if we may, you know, if we, if we get a big move up and. You know, make back about seven grand on this piece, we may cut that loose, continue to manage the other one, giving us the ability to jump back in with another piece in a different cycle. So we'll see what happens. Uh, but right now we'll just continue to manage these as they are. Uh, ES, we've got a long put vertical price moved way out of the range. So we need a nice down move to get back into range there. And that's going to be kind of the theme with some of these verticals, uh, GC already mentioned that one. NG, Natty gas, uh, just kind of managing. Oh yeah, I was going to mention this. I kind of posted this in the community this morning. We've got 18 days to expiration. So we typically want to roll out of these things to the next cycle by 21. But I mean, this thing is really holding its theta. I mean, this is it, it got some, uh, acceleration of theta today, but. Uh, man, this thing really hasn't moved with 18 days left. And there's still this much profit potential in this thing. Uh, we're going to get a pretty decent IV contraction at some point that's going to really pop this P and L line up. So I wanted to give this over the weekend and early next week, we'll probably roll, um, you know, this P and L line is not too steep either. Uh, as far as the gamma risk, but, uh, we'll, we'll definitely roll this next week, but just wanted to give it a little bit more time in case we do get a little pop higher. And we do get a real nice move up in the P and L line as we get closer to expiration, uh, didn't want to miss out on that. So that's the reasoning for holding that one a little bit longer. Uh, ZW I mentioned that Apple. So this is one of our long put verticals. This was one of our remaining positions still in April and hoping for a little bit of down movement before we do anything. This will probably roll that one out, but we'd love to see a down movement before we do that. De John Deere, this one has gotten smoked to the upside real steep rally in John Deere. So we've got, we've got two different pieces here. This one is way out of range. And then this one, uh, is, is a little ways out of range here too. So just looking for some downside in DE same with DIA prices moved out of range on that piece. And we've got a second set, uh, that prices moved well out of range there too. Now, if you look at the expected move, which is the gray box here, the edges right here, um, you know, it's the probability of it getting back in this, in this, uh, cycle is not very good. So instead of letting this theta decay all the way down early next week, we'll probably roll one of these. Now we're in, um, you know, we've, we've got 36 days. So we may even roll out to the June cycle with more duration. Uh, we'll be down into the sixties of days to expiration. So we'll probably at least, uh, move one of those out in time just to keep that as a positive theta position. Uh, I mentioned IWM QQQ, kind of a similar situation, uh, prices moved at a range. We've got two different sets here. That one's way out of range. And then this one here is a little bit closer, but still, still well out of range, but still a good chance of getting back in by expiration. So just going to hold this one for now. SMH, uh, we've got this adjusted short strangle made back about 700 bucks since we rolled it, uh, just continue to hold that for some more theta decay. That's in May, uh, SPY I mentioned, WIN, another one of our bunkers. So we're up pretty decent in WIN. And it's, it's, you know, with this rally, it's, it's come back, uh, you know, it's come back, um, down as far as our P and L goes. Uh, but if we get a sharp move lower, you know, that's going to benefit that. So that's the, you know, the cool thing about these bunkers, and let me go to one of others here. I'll skip over XBI, go to XLI. I mean, even with this, you know, just ripping, ripping rally, and just to give it a little perspective, we go to a percentage chart. So instead of having the price on the, on the side, we have the percentage. So, you know, we hit a low, uh, we were, this was down 40% at one point. Now it's down 23. So that's like a 20% rally that we've seen. And the fact that we can see that kind of rally and we're down a couple hundred bucks on these bunkers, that's pretty good. Now, obviously we would love to see the downside to benefit this position, but the whole benefit of these bunkers is that if you do get that rip to the upside, you've got very little risk. You know, we're risking a couple hundred bucks for the potential of, you know, a thousand or so is, you know, if this thing really turns around and starts going down. And so, uh, the other one XRT, we've got two different sets here. Let me, let me separate these, you know, so this one is down 24 bucks. And this one is down 190 bucks. You know, so even with these massive moves that we've seen, just rip your face off rallies, you know, in this case, from this point to this point, you know, that's about it again, about a 20% move in the stock. And to only be down a couple hundred bucks, that's the value of these things. You have a huge potential to the downside, but you don't get, you don't get killed on the upside. You know, some of these, uh, some of these verticals that we have, you know, they have more risk to the downside. Whereas these, these things, if this market does continue to rip higher, we have very little risk and we have all the potential to the downside. And so that's the benefit of those things. Um, and then, um, and then, you know, if you compare it to other kind of bearish or short Delta strategies, I already mentioned short verticals or short call verticals, long put verticals where you have risk in both directions. You know, the other thing is, you know, you could buy deep in the money puts, but again, on big rallies like this, you're going to be getting killed, uh, on the, on the P and L where these just really minimize your losses to the upside. So I think between all of our bunkers were down, you know, like five, six, 700 bucks. I haven't, I don't know exactly, but, um, but we have huge potential to the downside. And if we do get this, this, uh, drop off in the market again, like I think we will, uh, these things are going to be nice to have in place. So I know it sucks taking this heat. I like to bring the heat. I do not like to take the heat, but, uh, you know, I talked about being patient in one of the videos, uh, earlier. And this is part of it too, is when you're, you know, when you're in a, when you're in a strategy, again, you're never going to pick the tops. You're never going to pick the bottoms. That's not how trading works. And anybody tells you they can, uh, is, is full of it. And so you're going to have, and that's why we've just been kind of layering into these things, layer in a little by little on the upside, get some movement in our direction, but then it turns on us, just kind of layering in. And, you know, if this thing does roll over, we're going to benefit that from that, even though we're taking some heat right now. So stay a little bit patient. My friends, uh, I think the winter is still coming. Uh, okay. So I skipped over a couple of these XBI, we've got this adjusted short strangle here, uh, and this is, uh, this is inverted. So we've made back about 900 bucks since we, since we did our last roll, you know, we're at a point now where, you know, we're over 50% of max profit. So we'll let this sit a little bit longer. I mean, we've got 36 days to expiration. So we're not looking to roll out in time yet. So we'll just continue to let this theta decay. You know, if we look at our theta at this level, at the current price, you know, we've got 18 bucks a day today, and that'll accelerate as we get closer to expiration. So no, no hurry to do anything with this one yet. And then lastly, XLK, another long put vertical that's out of range. So we need some downside in that to benefit. So those are all the alerts. Those are all the positions. Everybody have a great long weekend. We'll check in with you Monday. See you then.