 Welcome traders to this week's live market and the trade analysis session with me, Patrick Manley. Just bear with me a couple of seconds to get set up and running a little bit behind schedule. Okay, so once again, welcome to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Manley. Before we get going, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent for today's presentation is the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So for those of you who are here for the first time, a very brief introduction to myself. As I said, my name is Patrick Manley and after I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite's executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling, the S&P 500. And after some early beginners luck, I managed to rack up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to basically average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately taking a six figure hit to my personal capital. To say that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I was not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing and extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially sees my personality. All of these are underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all I made the wall shed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to really stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategies, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the people in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientators, and you have a professional trading mindset, and you truly accept and understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game, which you're just simply playing the probabilities. You lose that emotional investment and hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades. So I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual return since 2008. Since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders, developing the technical and mental skills to provide consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for markets that I'm actively monitoring for trading opportunities. I run these through the tick mill trading view accounts. I also run tick mills E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan, outlining my pre-market thoughts for the New York cash trading session for the S&P 500. I provide my bias for the day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have now delivered over 6000 points in profits since we launched the group in April 21. Second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. Tick Mill Futures Telegram Trading Group is a real time environment. On a daily basis, I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also provide live market commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session. This gives traders an opportunity to essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping you to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets. And most importantly, there's mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's chart deck. What I would say is that if you have any questions, just drop those into the chat box and I will come back to them once I've finished my presentation. If you have an instrument you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my deck here, then feel free to drop that into the chat box, along with the timeframe you're looking at, that's helpful. And I'll give you a view on that instrument at the end of my presentation. So let's start things up here with the S&P 500. So as of last week for those who are here, you'll remember I was bullish and looking for that upside extension to target 4075 as the next upside objective. Obviously we have that yearly pivot just ahead there at 4056 was looking good until yesterday when there was a lot of poor data really in the US. So we have retail sales, industrial production, producer prices, all coming in on the soft side. And the market response, which is obviously the most important aspect of data releases was to sell risk assets. Now, previously we have been in an environment where bad news has been taken by the market as good news. Well, the reason is that the market perspective was that if the data was coming in week, that would mean that financial conditions were restricted. And this would give the Fed cover to start to ease interest rates. So yesterday we had poor out of data, but we had a couple of Fed speakers come out, notably Bullard and Mester, Bullard's very hawkish and the same with Mester. So the market would have been looking for them to start to shift towards a more dovish stance, not necessarily looking at a pivot for the Fed but potentially pause or a plateau in rates, but they didn't deliver on that. And so the risk appetite soured pretty quickly as the market perspective shifted from bad news being good news to bad news is bad news and potentially heading into a US recession. So we've seen a decent sell-off. I am currently running short positions from, I'll give you the levels I'm trading from at the moment. I've got short running in the futures here from 4028. I'm trailing the stop down now and I have a trailing stop coming in around the 320 level. So running about 100 points of profit there. So I'm anticipating that we find some support here into this 39 handle. And I've been looking for three way of corrective moves back into high volume note here 3960 3950. And ultimately what I sense now as this, this is really starting to look quite impulsive is that we're going to take a look at this daily trend line comes in here at the 3880 level. So because if you look at the weekly chart up here and I'll just blow that up for you guys so you can get a better look at that. So we can chart books. Zoom in on that. So this is the high timeframe for this weekly perspective. We did actually complete a three way corrective move into this high here at the 4160s. And we've got a bearish rejection outside weekly rejection bar. Obviously, majority of the market all ran into short positions and as is often the case once the market becomes overloaded on one side we get a squeeze. So we got that squeeze back when we've retested that trend line resistance. This week 4010 4020 area and sellers have stepped in again now for me what's going to be really key is where this weekly candle closes because if on a weekly basis, we take out that trend line support in the 3880 3870 area. That would be a pretty bearish developments and as such would set up a move down to target the 61.8% retracement of our post pandemic advance, and we also have the WXY pattern which would complete into that 31 79 area. So the confidence there is just below the 3200 level that would become the primary higher timeframe technical target, if we get rejected and close back through this trend line support now. Obviously, we've got two days of trading left to come. What I'm anticipating is that ultimately we find some support here into that 3880s. And I think we can play. Well, as long as we get confirmations from price action, either intraday or on the daily timeframe depending upon your, your timeframe of choice, I would be looking then for a move back up to test on the midpoint of the channel. So first of all, the high volume over coming at 3965 and then the mid the trend line resistance now comes in at the 4000 level. Obviously, if we can get through there then that's going to reignite the upside objectives. And we can think about that 4075 and the 41 30s above. But for now, we are in a selloff and it's going to be interesting to see where, where it where and if we find support because if we take out this trend line, all bets are off to my mind. Right. And the fur and we even on the daily timeframe here if we just think about the equality objective and I'll draw this in few. We have a swing high, swing low, and this swing high here. We could easily be back down testing 3641 that also coincides with monthly projected rain sport. When I talk about a quality objectives for those that have first time I'll draw in the visual aspect of what I'm looking at. So just talking about equal swings in the market often in scope and scale so 3640s. If we take out that trend line support, that's going to become the first target on the downside so it's really going to be pivotal today. See how we trade into this 3880 area. Moving to the NASDAQ. What type of setup here with the NASDAQ we traded up into you remember last week I was talking about the equality objective versus this swing low 11,098 we were looking for test of 11,727 got that test. We've set in obviously and we've sold off here. So I've been looking now for a three wave move to develop into test this weekly and daily projected rain sport 11,250. And we have this pitchfork support coming in and let's just add a channel projection here as well. Remove the pitchfork just for now. Bring in the channel measurements. So any move into test 11,250 11,270 really if the NASDAQ is going to find its feet here, we'd look for support to develop here, and then we look for moving to test the high volume node 11,523. If if we don't find support there again that's going to be a bearish development. And then we would start to look at downside objectives. This is the current swing structure so looking at the quality equal legs to the downside would actually give us a downside target of 10,174. Again note that coincides with monthly projected range supports that's an interesting level to keep in mind if we don't find support at the 11,250 area. Moving to the Dow Jones Jones was our out performer, but since it's taking a battering here is looking bearish from the swing high 34,480. If we pivot here 33,2900, then we are looking for 31,692 that's going to be our equal legs objective versus versus the swing structure actually need to adjust that. So the quality objective comes in again note we're getting some confidence here across these US indices pointing towards these monthly projected range supports. So that's for is 31,900 on the downsides with the Dow Jones, the Dow actually if you look at the daily trend line support here is it close through it yesterday and it looks like it's going to take it out now. So go back here to the weekly and bring in the trend line, you can see, we have taken that out meaningfully now. Given the current candle obviously we have to see where we close, but I would suggest any close through that yearly pivot 32,870. I'm going to be setting up on the bearish side looking for this 31,900 late 31,900 as the technical objective on the downside. So I'm looking for DAX DAX have been a solid out performer, but since some weakness here in line with the US indices. So I'm looking now for three wave corrective move to play out, and ultimately see us test into these prior cycle highs so we had 14,650 to 14,600. So if you look at the bullish reversal patterns there, even more constructive on the DAX at the moment, if we don't find support those prior highs, then where we'll be looking to is the high volume node and this internal trend line to be a third touch coinciding with the high volume and visualize it clearly. So any pullback into this area 14,450 I'll be watching for reversal patterns there to engage on the long side gain looking for a new next leg to the upside and new highs. Ultimately, we're looking for this high volume load on the weekly timeframe 15,560 is our targets that could be a nice entry point into that trade, if the setup plays out alternatively if we find support like I said is price 14,580 to 14,667. That also could set the base for the next leg to the upside. And Nikkei, pretty volatile this week obviously given the BOJ Bank of Japan were widely expected to announce yield curve control they didn't, that gave a bit of a kick to the markets. So in terms of the price action last week we were looking for a break of the trend channel support to targets are five equals one objective 24,995. So we broke through the channel. And what I always say is when you get what if you're playing these breaks, you really want to try and get your trade risk free certainly at the 50% of the placement of the prior leg or any retest into the lows. So you won't either want to take half profits or take your risk off the table because there is always the chance as we can see here that we can do a double correction so when I'm talking about double correction. What I'm talking about is ABC. So we've got that corrective new playing out like so just exceeded the equality objective 26,630, we've run into the 131 extension, which often you'll see price at a minimum store. And then you extend up into that 161 generally what we'll do is we'll pull back and hold the equality objective from above, or the potential a wave high, and then extend into our 161 extension zone. And then we pull selling off straight through. So we'd anticipate now that this is a correction that is potentially complete. And you'll remember on the daily time frame you have a downside objective 24,890 is our equality test. Moving to what was the standout performer in the back end of last year and anticipated to be so in this year is the nifty. That had completed its quality objective extends the upside. Last week we were looking for an extension into test the high volume mode 17,716. I haven't had that but I can see the potential for that still to set up here so we hold and see we've done a three way correction here. We hold this trend channel resistance. Look for this move into test 17,697. That's the high volume mode on the four hour timeframe. This level here, the 17,631 is a symmetry swing objective. Symmetry swings they're similar to equality objectives. So symmetry swings simply means that we're getting a correction similar in scope and scale to the prior corrective leg for once again, resuming to the upside. So we are watching that's that potential support zone to to set long positions in the nifty. Really is the has been and I anticipate to remain so the center former in terms of equity indexes moving to the bond market will use TLT as our proxy here. So last week we were looking for this move up into the 10850s to hold and potentially give us a three way corrective move down into trend channel support and the monthly projected range support. All right, we're going to take this out here so any close back through the highs 10980 we want to engage on the long side and our target is going to be an equal legs. And then the quality corrective move which were at this stage of holding the 9920s will give us 11683 on the upside. So any daily close through resistance 10950s are going to be looking to engage on the long side, targeting 11680 on the upside moving for an exchange domain. Dollar index, obviously weak starts the air. I've got a downside target here. Okay, we did test the initial target 10120s I've got a long position running in the dollar index at the moment it's just under water I got in at one or two 15 on the reaction of this this candle here we've got some nice momentum divergence. We'll see if we can break through this internal trend line resistance. Then we should look to the weekly projected range resistance daily projected ranges resistance sorry, and the midpoint of the channel, which gives us the 10290s as the first leg to the upside. I've been through there. I've been looking for a move three way move back into test 1340s 12350s as the next upside objective, even to the euro. So, how is the Israeli this standard performer in terms of major effects pairs at the moment, and that's been principally driven by some pretty hawkish rhetoric coming out of the ECB officials. We had a bunch of them out earlier this week talking and last week, really talking up the idea that rates are going to be elevated restrictive military policy is going to be in place at least into the summer in the euro zone and that's leading to support for the euro. So, any move at this stage into trend channel resistance weekly projected range resistance 10920s while I'm 30s, so as we maintain momentum divergence here. I am a new heist in price no new pie in the momentum study. I'll be watching for bearish reverse patterns I think we've put a date back down at 106s before we can can put in place the structure for a real break to the upside my next target on the upside if we hold those 106s is going to be 116012, I think we did a test there. If we don't hold the 106s the last real support zone will come in on this weekly trend channel support 103s will be my next area. We take out that then we could suggest that this is a false break to the upside. And we've been looking at downside targets going sterling a decent week sterling hit a couple of targets on the upside that went into 319 was where I was targeting as of last week we've taken it out. So now my next upside objective isn't this daily and weekly are three 12460s but ultimately on the basis we've taken out the 78.6% retracement of our prior decline. So I mean that gives a target 127 extension 12614s on the upside. Ideally what I'd like to see is a three way move back into putting the third test of this trend channel support just below the 121 handle. I'd be very interested there on a daily scale, watching for me to reverse the patterns setup will move into 126 127 as our next targets and that coincides with the weekly projected trend channel resistance. Moving to the yen with sore of a week, but the resistance held we didn't break out of the trend channel, and once again focus shifts to the downside, and really the move that we saw in the end that was was driven by the idea that the as hotly anticipated did not announce a, did not announce removing the yield curve control policy that's been in place for a long time over in Japan, and that led to some yen weakness and some unique a strength that was reversed on the day. Moving back in the trend channel that we anticipate my target on any clothes through 127 16s remains 125 for now this stage, we'd have to take out this trend channel resistance on a closing basis to suggest a more meaningful loan place, and I move back up to test 135 on the upside. Moving to the dollar CAD bounce here, I'm looking for any move into the high volume node and trend channel resistance at the 136 20s. Moving in on the long side, my downside target remains the quality objective versus this swing structure 129 70s. At this stage, it will take a weekly close or daily close sorry back through 137 suggests further consolidation in the upper end of the range. Moving down under to Australia. I was he traded into the weekly projected range resistance strong sell off better jobs data in the, or sorry weaker jobs data in Australia has led many to to assume that that means that the RBA can take a break in terms of their rate type cycle. And that's obviously led to some relative weakness here in the Aussie terms of the sell off. We call the symmetry swing moves. So he tested just shot just in advance of the last major sell off in this cycle here. If we move to the next cycle out so if we look at the sell off that we saw in December in the Aussie. So we can lay that versus our current swing high. We've got scope here to move down to the 67 90s. I would anticipate now as we consolidate here, check back up into resistance this high volume node 69 60s. From there I look for another leg to the downside 67 60s. But again, I'm, I'm certainly not bearish on the Aussie over the remainder of this year, and then you move into this daily sport zone at those 67 86 760s. I've been looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side. We've got an upside minimum of quality objective versus the swing low at the 66 20s, which gives us 73 40s is a technical upside objective. And that coincides with weekly projected trend channel resistance as well so some chunky targets on the upside for the Aussie. I don't think we're done yet. And I'll be looking for an entry points Kiwi correcting double top. Now we have taken out the trim line support. Like so, announcement overnight that the New Zealand PM is designing so political concerns there, central double top here on the weekly as well. I'm looking for a move back down into just shy 6050 area to re engage on the long side. Ultimately I'm looking for a trend channel test is 67 30s. So just monitoring the correction moment. I'm running a long goal position as we as we held trend channel support. It looked like it was working fantastically one point I did actually manage to get scale out half my position so I've essentially running a risk free long position from 1899 at the moment. So I'm anticipating as long as we hold that support this trend channel support that we do get a run up to test the 1950 level is my next upside objective for gold. And so we'll see how that plays out like I say risk free for me at the moment next confirmation for this one will be a close through that triangle resistance there coming in and daily rent resistance 1930s, and I should see further upside extension shorts will likely cover silver this is one that I'm paying close attention to seeing, seeing the potential for some significant upside here certainly if we can get a close through this weekly trend channel resistance 25 1125 12. That would be a very bullish developments next stop 2750s but ultimately, I'd be looking then for a move up through that 30 dollar mark on the upside, and that would really inject some momentum and see what has been a very sleepy market. In general, but this has been a bullish developments since the, since the September low, and you can see it starting to look impulsive here. Think about five wave sequence. So I'm paying attention to silver in the coming weeks as an instrument to to engage for a position trade long term trading opportunity crude oil. I'm running along from 7740s was looking really great but as a sell off yesterday, the back down now trading 7850s with my pop there 7950s. So we are seeing a little bit of improvement, certainly don't want to see this 7770 770s taken out trend channel, that would want to be deeper pullback to the 7410 I am bullish crude this year. I'm looking for the retest of $100 mark. So I'm trying to establish position trades here at the moment in terms of crude oil, can't not concerned to the downside let's take out the 7240. Last but not least, I'm going to wrap things up today with Bitcoin Bitcoin wave three potential high in place now, looking for a way for consolidation, like any move back into the 20,000 level, what's a bullish reversal for a five equals one extension to the upside minimum target there is going to be into 22,000. We've got the yearly pivot then acting as a magnet of others at 27,000. I'll be updating Bitcoin on Monday in the trading through the techno trading view accounts. And just to see how the price action plays out over the weekend we've also got some nice confidence down here at 19,200 trend projected trend channel support, and often we find when we get these base moves the base channel, what was resistance will now act as supports there 19,120 will be another area I'll be paying close attention to. And that concludes this week's tour of markets and tracking and opportunities I see like I say want to pay close attention some big trend lines in these equity indexes look like they are going to get tested. Are there any questions. Equally if you don't have a question typing an end in the chat box is helpful for me so I know I've done a reasonable job of explaining. I'm looking at, I'll post into the chat box as well the link for the Facebook group just act just request access, you get access to my daily trade plan there, the S&P 500 I also pose some other interesting stuff with respect to institutional research. And last but not least, I'll give you the trading view link. So for those of you who want to follow along with my ideas in terms of trades. And so I can trap those in real time. You can do so at this link here. I think you can subscribe as well and get notifications as I post new setups. I can't sit up. Thanks, Jason. Okay guys, if there aren't any questions I'm going to wrap this session up here. And as always, thanks for taking the time to join me today. And as always, remember to ban the trade trade the plan, the most importantly, manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much.