 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week nine is not the one most loaded with a ton of fun matchups and a ton of fun games to talk about from a traditional betting Perspective, which is why we got the player prop markets over at Fandall sports book We're gonna dissect those week number nine with Tom Vecchio of number fire get his reads on the prop markets for this week And outline his favorite bets for week number nine This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Com JJ Zachary's to be back with us next week. He is out sick for today So feel better soon JJ But we get to we are blessed by having Tom Vecchio slide in to fill those shoes find Tom on Twitter at DFS Underscore Tom. He of course is a betting and DFS analyst here at number fire Tom Welcome to week number nine. How are you doing today? Yeah? Thanks for having me back. I'm doing good It's it's certainly interesting slate and there's a lot going on when it comes to injury situations I think this is probably one of the tougher slates. I would say from traditional betting markets that we've probably seen all year I have some leans on some games But I think the player prop market is is really interesting this week depending on how some injuries fall Yeah, I've been frustrated with the traditional betting markets this week They have not moved as much as I thought they might when I locked things in earlier on But hey, that's all we have props to maybe get a little more action down there and see if we can have a fun week number nine We'll talk to Tom about Situations to target yardage props and touchdown props and more in just one second But first a reminder that our NFL week number nine traditional betting preview with Ryan Williams is up over on the covering the spread podcast Feed and on the fan duel YouTube page That is also with our college football week number 10 betting preview We had Ben Brown of PFF along with dr. Ed Feng breaking down their favorite bets for this week Get both those on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the fan duel YouTube page Twisted tea and fan duel have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series that gives you a chance to win Compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credit Introducing twisted tea is college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple Each college football game will be assigned a money line to spread and total markets with assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct Selection you made if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head if and will calm Slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember please drink Responsibly, let's turn our focus now to week number nine in the NFL And one of the things that stood out to me Tom is that some of our favorite teams You know you had the Eagles last night, but then also Looking forward to the rest of the weekend the bills and the cheese bowl heavily heavily favored and their respective matchups and That's gonna impact things at least in some way We've seen the bills keep their foot on the gas pretty long So maybe not impacting them as much but I want to hear from like a broad perspective How much do you tweak your view of a team? Knowing that's a they're big favorites, but also be we can't always predict the way a game will play out Right. I think you have to look at it from a few different angles, you know The the Eagles last night is obviously a good example. They're these large favorites They're expected to be up by a lot like what are we expecting from them? You know it comes to how many plays they're gonna be running So I look at I look back at the games that they were heavily favored and say what did they do in those games? I look at you know seconds per play when they're a neutral game script seconds per play when they're you know leading by You know seven or trailing by six plus whatever might be so I think the chiefs are a good example this week There's seventh right now in seconds per play in neutral game scripts And then they're 15th when they're leading by seven plus so like okay, that's a very clear change You know, what are you seeing from them? So I look back at those games I think that the bills are also a really solid example if we look back to last week once they scored that first touchdown they were up by at least seven for the rest of the game and They had a 50 run they were even last week in in a run a pass ratio And then we look back at the game when they you know blasted the Steelers the one I came with 38 to 3 It's like okay They didn't pass as much like wow surprise surprise So if they're expected to be favorites this week by 11 and a half Going up against the Jets. Are we expecting a high volume from Josh Allen? Probably not The thing you'd be worried about is the efficiency like he gets 150 yards or something in the first half Right, and then you're worried about I you know, how many more players are they gonna be running? So if you can like survive the first half you should be good to go, you know come the second half when they're up by 14 So are you actively like seeking out? Trying to find unders on the passing games of situations Do you look at that first and then kind of go from there because obviously it's not gonna be automatic? Oh, yeah bet that no matter what but like are you turning first to those passing games? See if you can find an under you like there. Yeah, I turned that but I also look for like as Direct correlation with player props with game outcomes And I think like the the I can explain the one from Jalen Hertz last night that I was Jalen Hertz under rushing that's what I wrote up yesterday. I was on I know a lot of people have this view that he's a great running quarterback And he is but it's situational So what I mean with that is going to last night he had 303 rushing yards for the entire season 90 of which so nearly a third of them came in week one against the lines If we look at the games and his prop last night was 41 and a half So if we look at the games where he crossed 41 and a half rushing yards all of those games He attempted at least 31 passes which means obviously he's under pressure where they're dropping back more He has more opportunities to scramble So all the other games though was it going crossed in three out of seven games going into last week? That means all the games that he didn't have that he passed fewer than 30 times because they were leading and they were rushing the ball So he doesn't have to draw it back there for my rush. So I look for those type of correlations Okay, they're leading which means Josh Allen is gonna be passing the ball 40 times Which means he should be on the game script towards an under and passing Right, and it's also all of that and it's also important to note that like teams are less aggressive with their quarterbacks Putting them in danger when they're up big, you know, why would you burn Josh Allen on a? Quarterback power on third and three when you're up by 15 points So I think that's the other part because anyway the scrambling part is huge too But especially these guys like Hertz and Alan who do have some design runs in there I think that that's also a key piece that could lead it lend itself towards an under other thing That is at least relevant for me this week and I want to talk to you broadly about this is the Bengals because We saw them effectively fold without Javar Chase last week. I had their money line. It was not fun Tom So Obviously this impacts the passing game because it frees up targets for other pieces there But I want to talk to you broadly when an offense is missing a key piece How do you balance out being the projected volume for other players? While it's taking to account for the fact the offense might just fold completely without one of their catalysts out there Yeah, last week was certainly interesting for the Bengals. I was sweating some Borough I needed him in a fantasy league to secure a matchup because the other person had chubb despite the fact I had AJ Brown and Khmer on the same team. I was sweating a Win very close, but I spoke about this on the radio last week on Monday prior to the games I've what are we seeing from the Bengals not only in this game, but moving forward? Obviously last week wasn't amazing I think we have to evaluate that in a certain context compared to this week where last week it's a divisional rivalry game You know all those sorts of things this week. They're going up against the Panthers, right? And next week it's also a divisional rivalry game against the Steelers But the Steelers are terrible on defense specifically in the secondary. So while last week wasn't good I think we have to take that with a grain of salt and evaluate them against the Panthers this week Like we're not worried about the Panthers defense. We're not worried about the Steelers secondary next week overall so I Understand that there's hesitancy to worry about their offense with no Jamar Chase But the consistent Boyd and Higgins should still be there So I don't like to paint broad strokes off of one game sample size is essentially what I'm saying We have to evaluate it on a week-to-week basis We also have seen situations where teams have been missing key pieces and still been fine So it's not a situation this always occurs. So it's important to keep that in mind I think the way that I view it is Make sure you are factoring in that in as like part of the range of outcomes Make sure you are aware that there is a situation in which the Bengals offense just sucks without Jamar Chase So it kind of just plays with like the meeting expectation where maybe you lower the meeting expectation a bit But still realize that guys like T Higgins Tyler Boyd have passed up sides Maybe looking at alternate markets looking at touchdown props Boyd scored last week I think Higgins scored yeah Higgins scored as well So I think that's my view it is increase the variance increase the odds that this offense collapse Collapses but don't trade like you said don't treat it as a one-size-fits-all You can't do that and and at that point if you worried about the variance you would I would if you're worried about the variance for The wide receivers I would simply just take the wide receiver that has the longest longer odds for a touchdown Also variance is a good thing if you're accounting for right variance is not bad And I think that that's a misconception around that word like you're saying like you can take advantage of that in a good way Too exactly they were both plus money last week Boyd and Higgins. They're both scored. Yeah, exactly Okay, let's open up things here Tom and talk about week number nine talk about some games specifically when you dig into this sleigh Which fluid situations are you keeping an eye on to potentially bet once prop markets open for those situations? Yeah, first and foremost has to be the Chargers You know, we we know that Mike Williams out Key nouns been dealing with this hamstring issue issue since week one Austin Echler is now dealing with something. What's his dad? It's gonna be because on paper It's a great match up going up against the Falcons, but like who's actually gonna be active So if we rule out Mike Williams, which we know Keenan Allen Expecting him not to play does that mean Josh Palmer is the number one wide receiver. I hope so and Then if Austin Echler who's been really good this season like if he's good good good to go Then we just fire him up in all areas, but if he's not good to go It is Sony Michelle gonna be seeing touches. So, you know Deandre Carter gonna be the number two So this is the main thing but the real answer I think or my favorite answer depending where the props lie is Gerald Everett The Falcons have allowed 552 receiving yards of tight ends. That's the third most illegal Everett already comes in with a an 18% target share and he's been pretty consistent in nine targets last week He's consistently getting to five six seven targets. So he's healthy. I love Josh Palmer I love Josh Palmer and DFS this week But I think John Gerald Everett would be my favorite prop to target against the Falcons Yeah, Joe lever. It's a touchdown odds right now plus 210. That's not that bad considering the eclairs minus 185 Which is wild Given the role he typically has in the red zone minus 185 is nuts as far as how short that is So I think that ever would make sense I was a bit worried earlier on this week about Donald Parham because I think Everett stakes like as a football player I think they want to I think they want to reduce his role eventually, but then Parham came back from a concussion and they heard his hamstring right away. So they can't bench. They can't they can't like there's nothing They can do there. So I was worried about that initially. I no longer have to worry about that. So I think that that is a Key situation look into and I am on board with some Gerald Everett props as well. The next one would be Green Bay wide receivers Because it is it's a great match of going up against the Lions They have to bounce back after, you know, we're down four losses in a row now, whatever it is for the Packers Hey, great. All right, and you know Lions have been terrible on defense. We all know this but who's gonna be out there? I think we'll get into them later when it comes to touchdowns, but I think that's a clear spot to look I have interest in in some garden props When we get there for for potentially those players, but it's just too many questions right now Yeah, it's a weird situation in those situations I think they probably want to bench a certain guy Dobbs, but can't so it's it's a rough one for sure Lazard seems like he's tracking towards playing, but I don't think the practice situation is a lock to make him good I think the one good thing there is if he wants it being an active your back gets refunded So keep that in mind know your house rules keep that in mind for sure if he wants it not playing you get your money back So account for that and think about that when looking at some prop bets over there Let's talk about those yardage props that you mentioned where you see in value right now across Across different books in the yardage markets So starting off at Curtis Samuel 49 and a half you can find out there I think that's at least interesting This could be a bit of an ugly game going up against the Vikings But the Vikings have actually been kind of terrible on defense They've allowed the fourth most receiving yards to wide receivers and if this game gets out of hand for Washington They're gonna have to pass it and Curtis Samuel can get that done and you know to two receptions Some big playability. So I certainly like that Brady is sitting at 272 and a half yards, which is very interesting Everyone's gonna talk about you know the Rams having a solid defense. They're not allowing a ton of yards The issue I have with that is right now Tampa has a 68.4 pass play percentage Which is the highest in the league and if you look back at Brady's Game logs, he's consistently passing the ball at least 40 times per game If not like 45 plus because they're just literally not moving the ball on the ground Yeah, so when push comes to shove they have to pass the ball So and you know, you can find Brady over 272 for even money So yes, I get the fact that it's it's not the best defensive matchup versus the Rams, but based on volume and Essentially garbage time like Brady can get there over 272 just because they're doing nothing on the ground So those are the first two spots that I looked You know, you can make the same case I guess for Terry McCormick as well as Curtis Samuel along the same lines by Gerald Everett once he's posted I have a ton of interest in there and then Samuel and Brady. Yeah going back to the Tom Brady one There was a quote this week from Byron left, which they're off as a corner saying like yeah, I mean like We can run the ball better. It's like, yeah, you can't run it any worse, dude It's been awful like I have like because you know as a true DFS analyst I've got color gradients on my spreadsheets and you look at the the bucks early down rushing offense Redder than ready can be it is it is bad So he was right it can't it could be better But it's because it can't be any worse and I think even if they do try to run I don't think they'll be able to hear it's like is you an extra out on that Brady one because I just don't think they'll be able to run even if they want to which will force them to throw eventually Yeah, they want to run it but they have they haven't able to do it all season They didn't do a whole lot last year either and like Brady It's an attrition thing with Brady like he just gets there because he has to pass the ball 40 times per game And they may not be super efficient in the passing game Mike Evans is listed as questionable that you know, I could point to more Godwin So I have interesting Godwin despite the fact again, you know tough matchup Ram secondary Jalen Ramsey all these sorts of things But at a certain point you know 50 passing times for Brady and 12 targets for Godwin is just too good Yeah Godwin is a 10.4 targets per game since he came back from his hamstring injury. That's pretty sweet He's all and they have they they have those designed like fake bubble screens to get him the ball. Yeah He's $6,700 on Fandal just gonna drop that and walk away from that right now. Okay. What about touchdown props? What are you seeing on the board there right now? Well, one of them would be is going back to Green Bay situation is both of their Receivers Christian watch and Romeo Dobbs. They're at plus 140 and then Rob Tanya's at plus 160 So depending on who's active I have a little interest in there just because the matchup is so good Against the Lions secondary. I think that's fine. Joe mixing is okay at minus 125 It's not the best odds but the matchup again again against the Panthers is something I've a lot of interest in attacking The one I'm I want your take on which is I'm very hesitant on right now is Tyra kill it even money against the Bears, which I don't think there's a lot of value there I can see why people would go there, but that's like the tipping point for me is like Plus plus 100 for Tyra kill seems good on paper, but right So he's had one one red zone target the entire year Which means it's not you're not entirely dependent on a big play to get there but you're pretty dependent on a big play and I also again worry about the wind a bit in that game it was 13 miles per hour last time I checked in 13 is not terrible, but and I thought I'm a huge to I love to I love to a coming out I do worry about him in wind. I think that would be a slight concern for me So full respect to Tua, but might be a couple flutter balls out there if it's the other one would be Justin Jefferson is also an even money and he hasn't caught a receiving touchdown since week one and he did Yeah, he did he did ever rushing touchdown when they were in London against the Saints But he hasn't caught a receiving touchdown since week one, which is obviously very surprising Yeah, considering the role he has all these sorts of things Um, it's obviously not the best game environment going up against Washington There's not a ton of points Washington's also been, you know, pretty solid in terms of getting pressure on the quarterbacks and and some of those things But I still have interest in Justin Jefferson The fact that he was quoted in an interview this week talking about not having a receiving touchdown Since week one and the fact that he does not count the rushing touchdown because he's a receiver and he wants the receptions Like that he said that almost verbatim So I have a little interest in Justin Jefferson just because the narrative like a little sprinkle on that is something I'll probably be doing Tom We're talking narratives here and you didn't talk up a Kirk Cousins anytime touchdown at 13 to 1 in his revenge game Come on. Okay You know that I know they paid him a lot of money since probably not that mad at them But also come on he had a rushing touchdown from like 17 yards last week. Come on. That's true Yeah, that's actually I forgot about the revenge for uh for Kirk Cousins there. Don't actually bet this I want to make that disclaimer. Don't actually bet that but I did I did Justin Jefferson though. I do I have interest in Justin Jefferson. Maybe not Kirk Cousins, but uh going back to the Austin Eckler one He actually moved to minus 190 while I was staring at it. Um, it's getting worse So don't bet that must mean there's some positive report about him playing someone's betting it. I don't know It's not me. I just think minus 190 is absurd, especially if My uh falcons money line was coming through not to you know, let's keep an eye on that one, but uh Gerald everybody at 210 Deondre Carter 230 we're sony michelle Sony michelle plus 550 Yeah And there's still I think joshua kelly's on ir now So that should uh spillers back But like they still had a pretty decent split between those two guys last week So like michelle's still in a good situation given the goal line work They give him right and it's hopefully it's not going to be xander horror bath again Like it was the first few weeks of the season So I need goal line carries. I need chargers no touchdown to hit so I can get this uh, this falcons money line Through I was waiting for it to move and it got to 134 and I was like that's a little bit of movement Because I got a 140 and I'm like I'd like a little bit more. So let's uh, let's keep it rolling, buddy Let's uh, let's get some guys some rest and let's get the falcons train juice in here Also, one final thing you mentioned Curtis Samuel Give me a book that offers his rushing plus receiving number and I will I'll deposit right away Like just just give me a Curtis Samuel rushing plus receiving prop and I'm in Has he been seeing a lot of like jet sweeps? You have like four he's a four and a half rushing attempts per game the past two games And he's been pretty efficient because he's a good football player So give me a rushing plus receiving prop for Curtis Samuel and I'm in I want to issue that edict right now To everyone, you know the dozens and dozens of bookmakers out there listening to us right now That is once again at tom of vecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom Tom, I appreciate the time for today. Good luck to you their props and it was a delight having you on once again Yeah, thanks for having me. It should be an interesting week and uh, you know pay attention to the chargers Inter situation. It's the final note. Yeah Gerald Everett's still relevant and it makes me very sad every time I have to use him in dfs Again, tom is on twitter at dfs underscore tom. You can find his work over at number fire.com I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s reminder We have our college football and nfl full preview shows up on the covering the spread podcast feed and Over on the faddle youtube page. Go check those out right now But outside of that have a fantastic week number nine We'll talk to you once again Monday to get you set for the ravens and the saints and prop bets there This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network