 The first full field event of 2022 is coming your way this weekend. It is the Sony Open in Hawaii. We've got some PGA DFS to break down and play for this event and some interesting names in the field. We're going to break down and let you know how to feel about them for PGA DFS. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Join here as always by Brandon Gadoula. He is the managing editor of NumberFire.com, Brandon, out in Hawaii for the second week of this Hawaii swing. How you do it today? Oh, well, to clarify, I am not in Hawaii. I'm in central Pennsylvania where it's warm. You checked. You looked outside recently. Maybe you've transported, flue powdered. It's not still here, still 11 degrees, but that's up from like eight or nine in the morning. I think the only time of year where I am like, well, I'd love to be where the PGA tour is because the weather is so much better is like right now in January, where it's the only time of year. Yeah, because I'm not that guy who's always like, wow, I wish I was in Florida all the time because I don't want to never want to be in Florida, but like Florida like two times in my life and both times it was 50 degrees. So like kind of what's the point? You know? Well, I know the point. It was like the Daytona 500, but like, you know, outside of that, well, like I'd be like, and it's nothing against Florida, but I was there in like July and I'm from again, Pennsylvania, so it's not a good transition. So if I were there in like March, whenever the PGA tour is there, I could see it. But by March in Pennsylvania, I'm cool like to go outside and like, you know, live in the brisk weather. So really, it's only whenever it's this frigid and they're out in Hawaii that I get that feeling. So that's how I'm doing. I'm just cold. I mean, I am too. I like walked outside this morning and immediately wanted to die because it was just cold, cold across the board and just delightful. So we're going to pretend we are in Hawaii. We break down this week's event is the Sony Open in Hawaii. We're going to break that down in just one segment first. A quick scheduling announcement because we do have the NFL playoffs coming up this week. We will still have our Thursday preview show coming up shocker on Thursday to get you set for the wild card round of the post season. That'll be a 10 a.m. still over on the Fandal YouTube page. Hit subscribe there. If you're watching right now, hit the like button as well because we do appreciate that. That 10 a.m. on the Fandal YouTube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that will break down the Saturday only slate, the Sunday only slate and the Monday single game slate as well. So a lot of good stuff coming up on Thursday all time stands in there. So you can zoop back and forth between the slates as you so desire. We'll talk some about the six game slate. That's weird to say the six game slate to intermittently. But either way, check that out on Thursday. Also, of course, NBA NHL, BFS, Viettaan, Beckio every weekday and Austin Swain talking at some UFC NASCAR just around the corner too. So a lot of good reasons to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. Let's dive in now to the Sony open in Hawaii. It's a YLA country club and it's 7,044 yards. It is a par 70. So a shorter course and a par 70 here this week. There are 144 golfers in the field. The top 65 plus ties make the cut after the first two rounds. So if you've been playing PGA, DFS, I mean, I guess last week and then back in November, a lot of no cut events. That is not the case this week. You got to prioritize guys who can make the cuts. Brandon, when we're looking for guys who can make said cuts, which stats we prioritize for this week? Yeah. So, uh, while I is a par 70, just over 7,000 yards, that makes it about 160 yards shorter than the average par 70 on the PGA tour. We also have really big greens by comparison to the average average. PGA tour greens are about 6,000 square feet on average. I hate how I got to say average twice. It sounds confusing, but like that's, um, but here we have them at 7,100 square feet. So a bit bigger. We saw bigger greens, way bigger greens than this last week. And we saw what the scoring was like. Uh, but you know, we do have good scoring here as well. In general, uh, the past five winning scores have been 21 under 11 under, which I'll touch on in a second, 22, 17 and 27 with under par, uh, cut lines aside from that, you know, that, that year, two years ago, whenever the winning score was just 11 under. Um, and that this is this, uh, Sony open from two years ago is one that we cite all the time. That's when we had heavy wins and we had Justin Thomas coming in after having won the tournament of champions. He was five to one to win this full field event with a cut. He missed the cut. The wins were just crazy and coincidentally camp Smith won, but point being, um, you know, pretty short, big greens, you kind of need to score. And that's kind of what's getting me on my key stats being stroke scan approach. Um, we've got a four par threes par four scoring 12, uh, par fours this week. Driving accuracy just because distance doesn't rate out a super long. You could go maybe a good drives gained, um, instead of driving accuracy, but point being shorter hitters, more accurate hitters are in play this week and that brings so many more golfers into the mix. Uh, but yeah. So driving accuracy is still kind of one of my key stats, uh, birdie or better rate, and then stroke scan putting on Bermuda. So again, my key stats pretty simple, just approach par fours, accuracy and you know, putting obviously the birdies in there, but, um, and I'm not going to get too, too weird this week with, uh, the key stats. Uh, one thing to note is that the, you mentioned the wind. Back in 2020, wind is very low this week. It's around like max of eight miles per hour. So that should lead to a reversion to the lower scores that you mentioned in 2019, 2021. So I think that that increases the allure of birdies or better games. Um, also tell me if this is dumb. Uh, so for me this week, I'm going stroking off the T because, you know, going through my typical process of seeing who performed well, stroking off the T did stop before accuracy, uh, distance was bad. So like, don't use distance. But like stroke stayed off the T was the key stat that stood out in terms of off the T play. But I think that my overall mentality this week is just downplaying off the T play in general, emphasizing approach around the green putting and stuff like that. Like I'm not disregarding off the T. I am just deemphasizing a bit. Do you buy or sell that approach to this week? Um, I buy it as, as in the fact that it's viable and it's going to get you onto a similar archetype of golfer. Yeah. Um, I don't think that that I wouldn't buy it is, is to say off the T driving totally is irrelevant. Um, but it's more, um, kind of a stat that I would then call like show scheme fairway through green, um, where you basically just take out off the T and I have that in my, in my spreadsheet for, for weeks whenever I think driving is even less relevant than it is this week, but I'm, I'm totally on board, um, with that, whatever your process was. It led us to a lot of the same, uh, same guys this week. But yeah, it's, it's basically like drivers not enough this week. Um, the one thing that I would say is I just never want to, and even though I bumped up the importance of around the green this week, right, never want to get too heavy on around the green because there are, there are only so many strokes you can gain around the green unless you have like four, five, six like pullouts, right? So I think that the way I view it is a bad around the green play is always a red flag. I would just say it's more of a red flag versus an emphasis this week. So like if there is red flag, more of a red flag emphasis, it's in the more of the red flag zone versus the emphasis zone. Like emphasis would be the next step up prioritization would be up, like approach is always prioritization. Um, whereas like all the team may be prioritization and then lowered to like emphasis this week. So it's still above around the green, but like the relative value I'm putting in those two is a lot different than usual. Like I'm still putting more and off the tee, just the gap between the two is lower. Yeah. I mean, yeah. And the more that I've learned over the years with the key stats, I always thought there was like a key stats, like code to break for every course. Um, there really isn't. It's more about kind of getting on the right path and not overthinking it too much. Also still just playing the better golfers overall. Um, so that simplifies it. But if you look at the leaderboard here, even last year in like a weaker field, Kevin, I won Chris Kirk was, I think golfing pretty well then, or that was like the start of a pretty good streak for him. Neiman, I'm nearly won this, uh, the tournament champions, Webb, Leishman, uh, Berger, Moracala, these guys were all top 10. So like you still want better golfers whenever they exist, but we don't have a whole lot of them this week. So take it where you get it though. We'll discuss which good golfers are here and which have done well at Waili in the past in just one second. But first, the World Fantasy basketball championship is scheduled to take place on March 13th, which means there is still plenty of time for you to qualify for the live final to get in on the action and to your best nine men NBA lineups into a WF BBC qualifier finished in first place. Each final is VIP packed includes a trip for two to New Orleans, two luxury box game tickets to the Hornets Pelicans game on March 11th, VIP entry into a special fan event and so much more. The live final will be here before you know it's at afandual.com slash WF BBC today and compete for your chance to party by the bayou. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandual.com or download the fandual app for more details. Let's dig into what golfers have done at this course in the past. We have a lot of course history to dig into, which is a benefit. Now, Brandon, you mentioned back in 2020, Justin Thomas, this is the cut here and Cameron Smith takes advantage and wins. And what do you know Cameron Smith also has won very recently. He's in the field. He is the favorite. He is the highest salary guy. He is the headliner for this week. So talk us through Cameron Smith, both his course history and the current form and what we should think about him for this week. Yes. So I know that we would have talked about Cam Smith. We could talk about him literally anywhere above the bookmaker section. Any thing, anything, which I'm, I'm pretty sure we'll still talk about him in player picks. But I feel like it was relevant to talk about Cam Smith at the top because he's going to dictate a lot of what we do. Not because his salary is so heavy compared to other golfers. He's salary is 12,000. It's just more that, you know, you got to start to think about the game theory angle. Again, the two years ago, I won't say the Justin Thomas or the Justin Thomas thing. You know, again, but it's good to be reminded of the volatility of golf. And, you know, Smith just seems to play really well in Hawaii. So that's kind of the scarier part of like fading him prior to his win. He was 22nd, 18th and 27th. Now, if he finishes 18th and you don't have them in your lineups, that's a win for you. However, Smith's a much better golfer now than he was over those past few years. Again, the form in Hawaii, just really good. That record breaking performance just adds to the fact that over any sample you want to look at, basically, he is the class of this field. So we're looking at like a Justin Thomas light situation where Smith is clearly the best play. It's coming off of a convincing win. We got to figure out what we're doing with Camp Smith. I think he is a lock for head to head lineups, cash games, your 50-50s, double ups, things like that. I think he's still in play for tournaments, even though he is going to be way more popular than his win odds suggest. I still think I would have some shares of Camp Smith just be a little bit underweight. So where are you with Smith right now? So totally agree with the cash game discussion where I think that he is the first guy you put in there, just build around him and be fond of it like you can figure it out from there. For tournaments, I'm more inclined to be even with the field on him and then deviate elsewhere, which is something I'm very comfortable with. If you're like new to the PGADFS podcast, like being even with the field is not a bad thing as long as you're being different elsewhere. And I think for Camp Smith, it actually is justifiable. If he were not like a standout from a quality perspective relative to the field, I would say just be underweight. But I think because he is a standout, I am okay being even. The situation in which I would be overweight is if it were not as volatile of an event where such a large portion of the field can compete. Like if it were a tougher course, I would say be overweight on Cameron Smith because he's so much better than the field. I think that's the key factor that pushes me down to be even. So to me, I would say 40% ish Camp Smith for tournaments, lock him in for cash games and then figure it out from there. I think that's the like sort of very small difference between the two of us mostly philosophical more so than it or difference it is on how we view Camp Smith. Yeah, I hope beyond about 40, maybe 45% of rosters this week, which is a lot. And if you're coming in from like playing NFL and you say someone's 40%, maybe you say that's way too much because football is all tile golf is- People get mad about 20% in NFL. Like people call that shock and I'm like, just calm down. People, yeah, a quarterback, it's like 1250% Oh quarterback, yeah, but like, no, no, I know, but like- A $5,500 feature back running back at 20% like, oh man, can't use that, that's chalk. Yeah, but you know, you might think that that's a great fade because his win odds, even if you use like the sports book odds, which I don't know, would be like 10%. Don't quote me on that. It would be like 12.5, I think. I could be wrong. Oh, I have this. I just didn't have a hold up, 10.5. At plus 850? Oh yeah, sorry, I went the wrong way. Sorry. You can order me. But yeah, okay, so you say, let's round it up. 11% to win, he's gonna be on 40% of lineups. There's a big gap between, like he can still finish top 10, make a ton of birdies, be a great play. He can finish 15th even. I said, if he finishes 18th, it's fine. But he can make a lot of birdies and you can score points with those birdies. So you're basically, it's easy to look at the win odds. You should probably look more like the made cut odds than I have him at like 82% likely to make the cut. So if he makes the cut, he's probably not, he's not probably, he's probably not going to finish like T58, if he's making the cut, he's probably top 20. He finishes T58, it's on you though, just so you know, I hope you're aware of that now. Okay, so distance is not as much of a prerequisite this week. So let's have a Web Simpson, because that is typically the course we like to target him at. And shockingly, Webb has done well here in the past. He has played the Sony Open 11 total times. Webb has never missed the cut. He has four top 10s and three of those are top 5s. Interestingly, all three of those top 5s are his past three trips to Wileye. He was fourth in 2018, third in 2020, fourth in 2021. Now, Webb putted really well in all those. We do type, you know, look at that as being a caution for course history, but also it's Webb. He's sixth in the arena putting the past 100 rounds according to Fantasy National. In the most recent event back in 2021, Webb gained 9.8 on approach at the RSM. He finished eighth in that one. So current form, at least current ish form is not bad. He is not low salaried by any means at 11.7, just three to less than Cameron Smith. So Brandon, is that gap too small for you to go Webb, or is he the first place you turn in those 60% where you're not in Cameron Smith? What do you use Webb here? I think Webb's fine. I don't think that he's the first place at look. He might be third, fourth. So I would go Abraham answer, Kevin not over Webb Simpson, which sounds a little potentially silly, but Webb has been really up and down in the current form. 14th at the CJ Cup back in October. And then at the RSM, he finished T8 by leading the field in approach by a really good margin as you pointed out. But then we had the Hero World Challenge, which you can put stock into or not. And I know we don't have shot link data, but we still can generate strokes gain total because that's just your basically your shot differential. I finished 17th out of 20 there was not particularly convincing for me to want to say like, hey, Webb is really sneaking back up. So at the salary of 11-7, I think I'd have to rank him behind answer, Kevin not, probably even Hideki, Sung Jae, maybe Corey Conner. So I don't think I want to get to Webb. I don't think he's the worst play by any means. I think there's enough, but I also don't think there's enough to put him ahead of someone like an answer. So you talked about how we are on a lot of the same guys. I think the one place we may differ is at the top. I think Webb is probably number two for me, outside of Smith, discounting him. He's not in this discussion. I think for me at the top, it's probably Webb and Sung Jae battling for one. And they sound like they're more towards the bottom of your list. Maybe we'll be a little bit different this week than we thought. Maybe. And here's the thing with like PGA DFS golf. Maybe like again, we probably have a lot of people listening this week who are giving it their first try because they're, you know, found the podcast through the NFL board. Yeah. You can get different very quickly because out of the what seven, let's go nine names, Harris English and Up. And I said most of these names. I didn't say like Mark Leishman, that's about it. So like you can pivot so many ways with justifiable options in virtually every field. You can do that in this field, even though Cam Smith's out there, but like I could see myself pivoting to Webb Simpson from answer, even though I have answer higher. Like that's how close it is. It's just more of a preference thing. So I'm not gonna like be goaded into a bet from you, if that's where you're kind of going. Would you do a Sung Jae bet? Sung Jae versus. I don't care. Answer. I'll say you do care. I mean, like I like answers. That's why I was hesitant. Well, sure. Let's do it. Let's do it. All right. Let's do Sung Jae versus answer. Fine. Okay. Start the year off with a bang. This is too good of a bet though. I don't like it. I don't want to. I don't want to forget. Yeah, we need like a. We need some trash. Maybe we can do a, actually no, I think I'm gonna like this next guy. Let's move to the mid-range and you can talk about Charles Howell the third. I like Charles Howell the third. He's kind of interesting. $9,400. Talk me through him. We're not gonna get a bet here. I don't think so. Well, so he's got some form at YLI. That's for sure. 19 times since 2003. In those, he has six top five finishes, nine top tens, no missed cuts. He has as many top fives again, six as finishes worse than 25th. He showed some life in the swing season with the 47th at the Shriners, 33rd at Mayakoba, 16th at the RSM. Over the past six months, Datagolf's true strokes gain query and, hey, he keeps saying this, but like if you're, if you are one of the few, like the one of the people, I don't wanna say a few. If you're one of the people who are just looking at PGA-DFS or PGA betting for the first time, check out Datagolf, go to their strokes gain query and adjust for field strength. It's a little bit sortable. It's free. Yeah, it's. Which is nice. Yes. Best free resource of like any sport that I know of when it comes to DFS in betting. Aside from our content at Number Fire, which. Is it bad that I was thinking he's saying fan graphs, but then I was like, oh yeah, yeah, let's, yeah. But like tools-wise with the adjustments and everything, like with golf specifically, they're probably better tools out there for other sports, but like realistically with golf for free, nothing comes close. But he has ranked 18th in total strokes gained average over the past six months. There's a lot to like, there's not a whole lot to say absolutely not with at 9,400. So are you seeing enough? It sounds like you are on a worry with Hal overall. Me, it's partly the history. It's partly the form. It's also partly that range is bad. Yeah. Like I was going through player picks trying to find a guy in the low 9,000 range to write up and I couldn't. I had to like bump up. I think Howell is like the one guy I got closest to putting down the sheet there because like he checks a lot of the boxes that I want for this week. So yeah, I'll consider him. I prefer a bit to get back up into the like the 9,5,9,6,9,7 range. But like honestly it's fine. If I can't reshuffle my lineup elsewhere and settle for Howell at 94, that's not gonna break my heart. I'm okay with that personally. Yeah, I don't know why he wasn't. So sometimes I look at my process plays and those are my favorite picks because I don't like to look at course history or current form to the point where it's like that's all I'm looking at. But there are some spots where it's like, hey, I'm gonna write up this guy with good course history and then it's like, hey, I should probably like him as much or more than someone who kind of my normal process led me to. Howell's probably in that tier where it's like I'm probably gonna pivot to him over a lot of other options in that range. Yeah, I think I'd agree with that too. Okay, let's talk about Brendan Steele also in that range at $9,600. Steele, form is pretty shaky. Passive shifts to Wileye though to Ben's superb. He was here in 2021 and 2020. Last year he finished fourth. He gained 4.8 on the greens but he was also at 5.2 T to green. Back in 2020, Steele was runner up thanks to gaining 6.4 on approach and six on the greens there. Interesting thing is that his form entering last year's event was actually much worse than it is entering this year. He has lost at least, he had lost at least 8.6 total strokes in previous previous four events entering last year. So entering last year, the form was bad. He still came in, finished fourth, 5.2 strokes gained a green there. He was runner up at the Zozo back in the fall largely avoided imploding elsewhere on the swing season. So is there enough here for you to get on board a Steele at $9,600? I don't think so. Even though we talked about that range being a little bit iffy, I would rank him at least sixth in just the 9,000 range alone. So I think that's gonna be enough for me. I don't really feel like, I don't really feel nervous. I feel more nervous not to have Charles Howell than I do not to have Brennan Steele. I would agree that statement. I would also say that Steele is not my favorite guy in that range. Again, it's not the best range but I think that there are better plays around him. Some of which we'll talk about later. So personally I'm okay not being there. So let's move now to the current form discussion and current form this time of year will always be a difficult discussion to have because for a lot of guys it's the first time they've played since November. Potentially even longer. There are some guys who played last week and I think that is noteworthy to have that form and that read on them recently. We do see a lot of guys. I think it's like 16 out of 23 have won the Sony after having previously played the TOC. I could be very wrong about that anyway. Maybe, I don't know. Either way, we're gonna go through current form. It's a weird discussion this week compared to usual because you don't have a lot of current form. But talk me through Kevin Kisner and what you've seen with him over the past couple of months. I don't know that stat but if you play in the TOC, probably pretty good to have won. So that might be a little bit of like sample bias there but I would not be surprised if knocking off some of that rust helps. Also just playing back to back in Hawaii. But yeah, Kevin Kisner, I can talk about him. Usually when we do the current form section we're looking at guys with really good current form that we're kind of thinking that there's an opportunity to sort of buy low on. You could maybe make that case with Kisner but I think there's a little bit more to it. Kisner's salary is 10,700 and in a field where there aren't a ton of big names, Kisner I think relative to this field is a pretty big name. He started the 2021 season missing the cut at the Shriners, finishing 54th at the no-cut CJ Cup, missing the cut at the RSM Classic, bounced back last week at the TOC with good iron play and better putting. He was third in stroke skin putting in that event. He's got good results while I working backward from last year, 32nd, 4th, 69th, 25th, 4th and 5th but he's in way worse form overall now than he typically has been entering those events and that's something that you wanna look for as well because while there are certain golfers, certain courses we'll see someone come from horrible form, play a course he's usually done well on, play it well again, that's not always going to be the case especially when the form drop off is this significant. However, there was that showing last week with good irons and putting. So I'm probably not there with Kisner. I do think that he'll be a little bit more popular than I would like him to be. So any thoughts for you on Kevin Kisner this week? So circling back to the stat, that's from the PGA Tour first look for the Sony Open. It is 16 out of 23. Sony Open winners have also played since it moved back to Hawaii back in 1999. So 16 out of 23, it's a pretty good number. And that could go well for Kisner but also like there are other guys in the range I like a lot and when I like them a lot it's harder for me to consider a guy who I can nitpick very, very easily. I'm not even sure it's nitpicking honestly with Kisner given the form. So personally, I'm okay avoiding and going to the guys like more in this range one of which is Sheamus Power. We talked about Sheamus Power a decent amount during the swing season. I think you still weren't discussing here at 10-4 despite the fact this range is pretty good. Power, middling last week at the TOC finished 15th there. He was pretty neutral across the board. It's not terrible and it means he has not fallen off a cliff over the break at least. Before then power was cutting it up a bit. He had top 21 finishes in four of his final five events close by 2021 that includes a fourth at the RSM. He gained 6.5 T degree across the measured rounds in that event. Power has been to the Sony four times has never finished better than 49 but his form now is a lot better than it was previously. So the opposite of Kisner here. So what are your thoughts of power at 10-4? So there are some names, some like key check favorites that I do think I prefer to Shamus Power around that range. I guess maybe I can't include Taylor Gutsch at a full 400. That's reasonable that I prefer but I do think that power is like a top 10 play overall. I have a ninth in my combo model which looks at long-term form, relevant stats for this week when simulation stuff. So top 10 there, one of the better values as well. So like nothing against power but this might be a little bit more of like a Web Simpson situation where it's I would rather play Russell Henley rather play Taylor Gutsch might rather play like Cam Davis which is probably a little bit silly but. Would you like Cam Davis or Shamus Power bet if you want that? No, I don't think I get quite there but again, it just more speaks to the preference of or like the kind of modest interest I have in power overall. So Gutsch is in my player picks. Henley I like. So I can't do a bet with those. I like, I could do a co-crack but I'm not sure if you'd do that. Given, it's an around the green week. I don't really think I, we need to talk too much about co-crack but after last week, I think I'm good, fair enough. So not yet not getting a bet there but I think of a little bit higher on power than you. I agree that like he's probably third behind Gutsch and Henley, he's definitely behind Gutsch for me who is 10-8. Henley is 10-6, I believe, is that right? 10-3. 10-3 is lower, yeah. So yeah, I think that he's third in that range that may be high enough if I had to go pretty balanced. But. Yeah, power over Kisner for sure though. Yes, I'd agree with that. Okay, let's move down to some lower salary guys starting off with KH Lee, $8,600. What are you seeing with him right now? Yeah, so again, as you pointed out not a lot of golfers have like tons of recent form just because it doesn't exist but if we are willing to dig back into the swing season then KH Lee looks really good. 33rd at the TOC, so he did play last week. Not great finish but it's tough field was here. That's again, as Jim pointed out, a plus. Finished 14th at the Shriners, 25th at the CJ Cup, 18th at the Zozo. And DataGolf has KH Lee ranked 13th overall and true strokes gained over the past six months. Did miss the cut at YLI two straight years but was 19th here a year ago. He's accurate which is something that I'm looking for. Gets birdie chances, not the best putter so he doesn't always convert those. But I do think for a salary of 86 that does stand out to me. He's not a player pick for me but he might be close. So any thoughts on KH Lee for you? Yeah, I'm not really opposed to him just because again, like things do fall off from you after the mid to high 9,000 range and he does enough to like be totally fine in that tier. So yeah, I think that he's worth considering. I was kind of into Pat Perez before he withdrew. I was not like super into him but I was like, you know, considering him. And I think that losing Perez in that range ups my interest in Lee a bit too. So I think that Lee in the considerations that down there, I would say. Yeah, I had Pat Perez as a like an other to consider in my helper till he withdrew. So I might, I might actually stop and then friend KH Lee. Yeah, I think that that would work for sure. Okay, let's talk about Denny McCarthy. I said the low 9,000 range stinks. It does. One guy who might get bumped up in an event where all the T play matters a bit less and short game matters more, you know, just relatively is Denny McCarthy. He's playing pretty well of late. McCarthy finished 2021 with finishes of 10th, 11th and 15th across his final three events. He gained at least 5.2 total strokes in all three and he was gaining a bit T degree at both the RSM, the Houston Open which doesn't really happen all that often. Obviously McCarthy, not the archetype we typically target. You don't want to rely on short game defeats, but like I think it's different when it's reliable short game and like McCarthy's sample of being very good with the short game is very large which I think needs more dependable than usual. He's getting it done. This course should suit him more than others. Salary is 91. I think the salary aspect is the key portion here because like I can accept more imperfections at 91 especially when they're coming with results. So I'm at least interested in McCarthy. What about you? I guess you didn't scroll far ahead enough then because I'm pretty sure he's a player pick. No, he's not. I was gonna say, I looked at your player picks. He's not. I didn't scroll far enough ahead. You used the other McCarthy in your player picks. I almost. He's his twin. No, I almost put him in because we have a lot of overlap and I was like, oh, I'll write up someone who's, but he's an other to consider. So he's like kind of, you know, definitely in that conversation for me. Just like, this is a Denny McCarthy type of setup. He's got, you know, he's gonna benefit by playing a course that doesn't demand distance. He's got that S tier Bermuda putting, which you have to love. And I think if you make the case for Brendan Todd, you have to be okay to make the case for Denny McCarthy. So if you wanna. That's his twin. They're not exactly the same, but there's enough. Denny Todd would be a great name and I would like them to like more. How is Denny Todd not a NASCAR driver? Oh my goodness. We'll work on it. I'll, I'll work on it. I'll get my people on the line to make this happen. But I really think that, you know, you could maybe do some correlation stuff, which probably it might work. I don't know. It's like. I've done that before and it worked really well. Well, it's really hard to test like long-term. But I think. Anacutely. No one's ever gone wrong. Yeah. Based on gut and anecdote that, you know, without data. That's true. But yeah, McCarthy Todd combinations, I think open up a lot. Yeah. And if that is a viable approach to, you know, hit just hit fairways, have good short game to make the cut and score well, then those guys pair well together. Would you do with them with like web? Because it's kind of like a similar. I do like Kevin Na. Or an answer. Yeah. I think like the answer. I think answer is like the new web. Okay. I can get behind that. So I think that like archetype stack makes work or does work if we're gonna, you know, call it that. I think that that would be interesting for sure. So I'm okay with Todd and McCarthy. Typically I'm not, especially in a range that's pretty bad. I think this week is a fine week to do so. Let's talk about the bookmaker odds for this event over at Fandall Sportsbook. Cameron Smith, the runaway favorite. He has plus a 50 at Fandall Sportsbook. It drops a full tier. There are four guys in the second tier. That's web since in a 15 to one. Sung Jaeim and Hideki Matsuyama are 17 to one. Mark Leishman is 19 to one. That's all by another tier drop. Down to Corey Connors at 26. Kevin Na is 29. Abraham Ansar, Harris English, Russell Henley all 32 to one. So you know, Ken Smith is the top. Who is your favorite guy from that second tier? And how far are they behind Smith for you? My second favorite for DFS is Ansar. I would say decently far, but not to the point that when I fade, because I'm not gonna buy Cam Smith in every lineup, Ansar is gonna be my kind of anchor this week. Yeah, I think for me, I'm pretty into Sung Jae. I think the one issue with that is Sung Jae's salary means you have a very similar roster construction to Cameron Smith. So you're losing one of the advantages of not having Smith where you get a more balanced approach because Sung Jae in salary is 11-5. Ansar's 11-3, so it's also kind of a similar discussion. But I think that's the one downside. I think that Sung Jae's game is pretty fun just overall, but also for this event, because he's good around the green. He's a good remuda putter. He's good in approach, gain strokes off the tee. He has experience at this course too. Conn into Sung Jae as being my favorite non-Smith guy. I can get behind that in case anyone's curious because if you match up sports book odds with salaries, you'll see Ansar as an outlier in a negative sense because he's just sandwiched between Leishman and Sung Jae who are 17-1 and Ansar himself is 32. Ansar was terrible at the tournament champions just in all facets, he lost strokes gained. He did switch club manufacturers. He's with Callaway now, which usually is a stay-away kind of a thing for me. However, if we want to talk the anecdotes, I did recommend to Fade Justin Rose once when he switched to Hanma clubs and he went on one the next week. I said to Fade Conmore and Cowell because he switched his putting grip. He won the next week. Jon Roms also switched to Callaway last year. He had a pretty good season if I recall. I'm a little fuzzy there, but it's one of those things where it's like, until we see some life from Ansar, keep fading him, but it also probably is, he's gonna figure out how to use those clubs. It could also just been completely unrelated to the club. So I at least wanted to point that out because Ansar's win odds are noteworthy, noteworthy different than the other guys around him. So I at least wanted to point that out. I think one thing, one difference is that I would be more inclined to bat Ansar than like him for DFS. I did that. Oh, okay. At 32 or what'd you get him at? 30. Okay, nice. That works. Actually, I bet Ansar or not and Taylor Gooch. So I just was in this range with my bets this week. So you're just hating on Ken Smith. I don't think that he is 10.5% likely to win or better. Rude. Rude. Rude. Hey, I recommended him last week. So, uh-huh. Anyway, did he bet him? Sorry, sore subject, my bad. Which golfer's odds have shifted most since things? Did you pull like right after the Bryson withdrawal? Cause I feel like that's the most noteworthy time to note here. I mean, there were so many withdrawals. I did my best here. I mean, Ches with Drew, which changed everything. That's true. Once Ches with Drew at 90 to one, everyone just went crazy trying to figure this thing out. But- Got Perez too at like 160 or 120, yeah. Yeah. Those are the key points. Yeah. But no, Ken Smith stayed pad at 850. I didn't see him lower than that or higher than that at all. I think he was plus 950 when Bryson was in there. Okay. Cause I had him at 850 with Bryson in there. Okay. I think. Okay. So maybe he, either way. Yeah. Sputton hairs there at that point when it comes to applying that to DFS. But I have Mark Leishman from 19 to 17, Corey Connors from 29 to 26, Kevin Kisner and Taylor Gutch from 36 to 34, Charles Howell and Joel Damon, 75 to 55. So big, big movement there for some guys in the mid 9,000 range. I'm good with Damon this week for sure. K.H. Lee, big move, 160 to 90. And then Zach Johnson, 120 to 90. I looked into Zach Johnson for a very long time and gave some strong consideration to him. Couldn't quite pull the trigger on making him a player pick, but like I thought about it for a while. What's your read on him? I think he's fine. There is a cluster of golfers from like just 89 to 86. No, I was gonna say like, well, okay, let's do 86 to 9,000. There are like a dozen golfers that I could see. It would be like, sure, basically. The number of names I had briefly on our sheet as a player pick down there. I mean, Perez was one, he withdrew, but like there were a couple others who I was like, oh, okay, I could talk about, let me give you an example here. I had, I had Kassair briefly, I think. Aaron Rye, I do have on there. Zach Johnson, I thought about. Stewart, I think I have on there right now. You do, cause I do as well. Perez, thought about Lee. So yeah, it was like half a dozen names actually. Like, at least. Grilo. No, I didn't, you did. Yeah, you can have Grilo if you want, that's fine. But like, no, none of them stand out. And whenever you have that many and you can't figure out who's the one, it's kind of too many, which doesn't make them bad plays. It just makes it really hard to hit on the right plays if you don't have that conviction. So I'm not out on ZJ, but again, I say this stuff a lot with golf cause there are so many golfers to consider. It's like, I'm not going to talk you out of him, but I myself probably not going to get there and I'm just being transparent on that one. Other movement things you noted, Damon, I like Damon too, we'll talk about them later, but I think it's how moving is also nothing to up the confidence in the DFS perspective. Okay, similar mindset here, which lower salary golfers have odds? Currently, that's enough to you. There's just two buckets at 90 to one and 120 to one. If you look at golfers with salaries of 9,000 or below, we've got like seven here who are 90 to one. Emiliano Grillo, Patton Kazaier, Stuart Sink, Zach Johnson, Aaron Ray, Tom Hogi and K.H. Lee. I'm good with all of those guys, but Stuart Sink to some degree. And then at 120, and again, these guys aren't even like upper sevens or low eights. They're all 86 or above. Robert Twohand Streb, Brian Stewart, Henrik Norlander, Russell Knox, Adam Long. I much prefer Stuart to anyone else in that tier, but like a lot of names down here you could really consider. Yeah, I think that it's reassuring, but it does not make it easy to make a player picks down there, which we will do in just one second. My first quick note on the weather for this week, as mentioned before, it's pretty calm for this event. That's not always a case at a Y-Li, so I think that's pretty noteworthy that it's calm. It may lead to better scoring for this week, which leads to more volatility, but also increases the allure of findings and birdies out there. So take note of that before you fill out your lineups. So let's go now and run through our player picks here for the Sony Open in Hawaii, starting off with you, Brandon. Who are you targeting for this week over on TheFanDuel.com? At TheFanDuel. Should I say Cam Smith? Or should I, okay. I'll say Cam Smith. I think he's just the best process play. I have him at 7.9% likely to win, which again, doesn't make him a good win bet for me, but nobody else is above 4.5%. Only Webb is above 4%, and if I was the type of person who would just like manually adjust the things more, that would probably be lower for Webb, just because of the up and down that I've seen from him, but again, Cam Smith, basically, twice as likely as anyone else to win. The salary doesn't really reflect that. 98th percentile, golfer in adjusted stroke, scanty to green and putting, which are my numbers that adjust for recency and field strength over the past year. It's really hard to top that. So, you know, you can get cute in tournaments, but I don't think that you avoid Cam Smith by any means in your head to heads. And that's why I have him as my top player pick as well. He is coming off a win at the TOC. He's one of the guys where you know he is in form, and I think that that is, I mean, honestly, I do think that it's worth a bit more this week than it typically is. He is leading every area outside of all the T-play, which matters less to me this week. He is a former winner at this course. I think you just build around him and go elsewhere from there. We talked about the other guys you liked here. So if you're looking for tournament stuff, Answer is a guy Brandon likes. I like Sung JM. I do like Webb as well. So you've got tournament options outside of Cameron Smith. I think you have about 40% in tournaments personally. Brandon is a bit lower than that, but I think either way, you Smith in cash games, bit more thought goes into it for tournaments. Yes, I would also throw Kevin Na in that conversation as my tournament pivot. Yeah, I think that he deserves to be in there too. Okay, other high salary guys you like, looking at that like second tier in the 10,000 range, who stands out to you there? Russell Henley, a big heat check, long time heat check superstar for us, 10,300, Rosa knows. I'm only just a fan. She's like that. That was not a happy bark. She's like, that's a name I haven't heard in quite some time. Yeah. She leans back, takes a toke of a cigarette and oh yes, Russell Henley, yes, the hen dog. Yes, well she, well actually she's probably not old enough to remember his win at YLI, but we haven't seen him lately. So I guess that kind of fits. But that's just the case for a lot of golfers this week. His past two results were a T7 at Houston, T22 at the RSM, based on good all-around game. Plenty of fairways hit. Just a good setup for him. So I like Henley kind of a lot and I think he's a lock for our head to head this week. Yeah, I thought that I had Henley two in this range and I think I still do, but it's a very close two behind Taylor Gooch, who is my second high salary guy. He is a middling salary for someone who beats everywhere except off the tee. He ranks third in approach to past 50 rounds according to Fantasy National. He's third around the green. He was fine in the tournament champions, but that means we've seen him recently actually gained 1.4 off the tee there, which might be the best Taylor Gooch has ever done his entire life. He has gained five or more in approach in four of his past eight measured events. The approach play is sick, was decent off the tee last week. He's good around the green too. I think he's well worth 10-8. I think to me it's Gooch, Henley, and then power my ranking of the guys in the 10,000 range for this week. Any final thoughts for you in the 10,000 range? We're good to move on. Why are you going on Taylor Gooch's off the tee numbers? Because they're not great, but he didn't deserve it. They're not good. They're not good. Well, Gooch and Henley- I'll text them an apology later. My best friend, Taylor. Yeah. I'll also ask them to please keep the Y out of your name because I love one last letter to type spelling out Taylor Gooch. Okay. Let's move to the mid salary, guys. Who are you targeting there? I have Joel Damon. I think we're gonna get a Damian performance this week. Ultimately did underwhelm with the TOC, but he was kind of at times flashing. If you go back through the stats, and I really don't look like round by round stats because it's not very predictive and you want that sample to build up, but basically had his irons one day, didn't have the wedges, didn't have the putter like different days. Like it just kind of didn't work out for him, but played here or not, played in Hawaii last week, which again is a good sign. Salaries really reasonable at 9,500. 96% tile and birdie or better rate gained over the past 50 rounds, according to fantasynational.com. 87th percentile and fairways gained as well. And then in my adjusted ball striking numbers, 86th percentile in this field. So I like Damian, he's probably gonna finish like, I can't really say that, but he's got two top 25s on his past two tries here. So probably just gonna do it again. I am also on Joel Damian. It is a little bit nerve wracking given that it is a field where, or an event where emphasizing short game a bit more, but at least one part of the short game for Damian seems to be getting a little bit better. He's actually gained at least 1.8 strokes putting in four of his past six measured events. He gained four strokes putting in two of those. He also gained at least 1.8 in two, or lost at least 1.8 in two. So he can still lose strokes, but the ability to hit the highs is good. We talked about that a lot, where if you're a bad putter, but you can have spike weeks, that is a lot better than being like, consistently a bit below average, because I want that volatility in order to capture some upside. I think that's good for Damian. He's just calling more cow, that's it. Also like he knows he's not great as a putter, and I think that that like is, I don't know, it doesn't have been on a whole lot, but like, you know, like he talks about it. I think that's nice. Yeah, I love Joel Damian, so. He's great, yeah. 36th off the tee, 17th in approach. He's done well here in the past, even despite having some issues with the short game. So I think Damian is worth a shot for sure at $9,500. Who else do you like in the mid-range here? Brendan Todd, 93, coming off of a missed cut, which happened before Thanksgiving, so I don't know if you were like, say that he's coming off of anything. Coming off-ish. Didn't putt well, which is definitely not what you expect from Brendan Todd. He's in the 98th percentile in Bermuda putting, which I would classify as S tier just to tilt Jim. What's the cutoff like for S tier? I think S tier is probably like 95th percentile and better, and then your A tier, but like after that. All right, fair enough. But usually, my honest cutoff's usually like 98th percentile, which he is, so. Okay, Todd or McCarthy? Todd. Okay. Brendan McCarthy or Denny Todd? For name value, just like, which is better? Well, for like what type, if we're talking like athlete? Plumber. Brendan McCarthy sounds like a butler actually, so we're gonna cross him off. Yeah. Okay. I was also very close to Brandon McCarthy, who is a former Major League Baseball pitcher and was awesome. Awesome, at least on Twitter. Okay, so we're gonna go Denny Todd, I think. Wasn't he like the, isn't he like the Max Homa of like Twitter? Kinda, yeah. I think I'd buy that cop. Just seems like a good dude. So I like Brendan McCarthy. Brendan McCarthy, definitely a butler, but Denny Todd, stud NASCAR driver. My second mid-range guy is Maverick McNeely. He is actually higher salary than Damon, but I wanna talk about Damon first since you had talked about him, so I'll just make it congruent. McNeely is 98. He is surged in the swing season, but measures up well when you adjust for competition. He ranks ninth in DataGolf's true strokes gain query the past six months. A lot of that is due to off-the-tea play, but he also did gain 4.8 on approach at the Houston Open. He can have pop weeks as a putter, which is good. Talk about that with Damon before. Not as good on Bermuda as other surfaces, but could be due to like small samples there. So I think that McNeely works a lot at 98. What are your thoughts on Maverick McNeely for this week? Like him a lot. I think there's gonna be big things from McNeely this year. He's kind of one of the guys I'm watching. He's just got to get the irons dialed in, but he's got distance in birdie potential, which I know we're not looking for distance, but it's never a bad thing to have distance. So he rates out, honestly, as one of the better plays for me, even at 98. But more realistically, I will play like a Joel Damon, often simply because of the salary savings to help me get back up away from that 8,000 range. I think that makes sense. Okay, let's finish with the value plays for this week. Who stands out to you at $9,000 or lower? I'm gonna go Emiliano Grillo on 9,000, exactly 90 to one to win. Look, Grillo's got his ups and downs for sure, but there's also, there are weeks where you would consider Grillo more than others. I think this is probably one of those weeks where you'd consider him more than others. 92nd percentile in adjusted approach play over the past year, accurate driver, tons of birdie chances. I know that I'll need to make those in order to make the cut, but as much as I'm cool with like a Danny McCarthy type play, I think a Grillo really fits this week as well because he should definitely have birdie chances. Considering offering a Grillo versus McCarthy bet. I would not do that. Okay, I tried. That would seem like super like, like 2016 gym would have been angry at the thought of that. Yeah. 2022 gym has been radicalized by being burned by the Grillo. Yeah, I considered it. Couldn't quite get there. But you know, I'm not on Grillo this week personally, just because if I'm bumping up short game, I it's tougher to get there, which seems hypocritical because Aaron Rye is my first lower salary play in the short game. Does seem to be an issue for him, but the approach play might be good enough for him to still be in play. Basically new Grillo question mark. Rye's at 0.83 a stroke scheme, T-degree per round over the past six months, according to data golf's true stroke gained. He's losing 0.45 on the green. So that ain't great. That could be an issue here, but he's roughly neutral around the green, which helps. So one area of short game is not gonna hurt him too much, $8,900. I'm okay giving a Rye a swing here. What about you? Yeah, I was trying to search for him in my spreadsheet and I typed RYE because it's how you say his last name. And I was like, what am I missing here? But yeah, I think that he's in the conversation. I know that he's got the good approach numbers probably because he uses iron covers, but it's for a good reason. So anyone who's like vehemently anti-iron cover, it's because his dad told them to cherish the things that he has. So that's probably like the only reason to justify iron covers. Sorry if anyone listening uses iron covers, but just if you see him out there, don't tweet at him and be like, hey man, iron covers aren't cool. Just let everyone do what they wanna do if it's not hurting you. But either way, Aaron Rye for me was a consideration. I didn't quite get there, but I definitely see the case for him. Yeah, I think that he's pretty interesting. So I'm on board with him. It's probably stupid to go with him over Grillo because like, I think best case, not best case scenario, but like the 75th percentile outcome is like he's Grillo where he's really good T to green and struggles on the greens, but like I still think that I am okay with more uncertainty. I don't want the known bad with the short game with Grillo, whereas with Rye, it's like probably bad, but maybe not. Who knows? Would you bet me? No. See, I think the thing, I'm falling behind again in bets already. It's eight to four already this season. What's our head to head? I totally forgot, like, I have no idea. Four to three, me. Okay, that's better than I thought it was. For some reason, I thought that I was getting crushed probably because it was occurring in St. James NFL where I was getting crushed. Claude back a bit, not going to lie, but you still want to get 11 to six, something like that. 11 to seven? With your week this week, you probably demolished me in week 18. I beat you by five points this week in our head, yeah. Well, that's wild, but honestly, we both did pretty well. That was wild, but yeah. It'd be an 11 to seven. Yep. Devon double-tutty is welcome to my hot tub that I don't have at any time. Who else do you like in the lower salary range? I think we're going to have a shared interest down here, Jim and Brian Stewart at 87. We're on the same page. Super short driver, but super accurate driver, good overall short game, fits that like Brian Stewart, Danny McCarthy, Brendan Todd, Abancer kind of build, and I might just end up doing that. Let's do it, let's do it. Okay. Do I do McCarthy and Todd or we just do one? Well, a glut is to do two. Is it? I mean, if the case is to like get back up to some more accurate, like thuds. Is it still not good? No, it's fine. It gets you a web and answer pretty easily, which is nice. So I think this works. Oh, it's all right. I'd still rather go, I'd probably go Sung Jae over web. For that type of archetype? Yeah. No, Sung Jae's too good off the tee. We're going with just bad off the tee only. I mean, you're not, no, they can't be good. Get out of here with this good off the tee play nonsense. Web is not bad off the tee. Who invited you? He's not bad off the tee. Kevin Na is bad off the tee like comparison. All right, okay. You cannot rank better. Oh, answer's 11th. No, maybe I have to kick answer off. Maybe answer's too good. I don't know. It's Corey Connors is the best. He's got the best adjusted off the tee. He's also super accurate and not long. Okay, so I'm kicking off answer. Answer's been kicked off the island. Get out of here. Okay, so Stuart, Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd. RC, web, Sanjay, 97. Can get a little hairy. I could that. No, no, I think I want to go those five and then just like give it double barrel middle fingers and go Keith Mitchell. I was gonna say go Joel Damon there to balance out everything. Yes, this is good. Okay, anything else to say about Brian Stewart? No. Okay, he's 48th in approach, 18th around the green, solid putter. He'll put it on the fairways. So I think that he is a good pick as well in the upper high 8,000 range. Upper high is double. The mid to high 8,000 range, I think that he works pretty well there. I am rusty on PGA terminology after having taken off like the past, whatever it is decade it feels like at this point. So forgive me with the salary terminology. We'll figure it out and improve. We're gonna go back to the work. We're gonna watch the film. We're gonna grind it out and just evaluate ourselves before we can evaluate others, you know? Yeah, forgive me. I forgot how numbers work over the break. They're hard, man. I don't know. Sue me. Anyway, okay, those are our player pick. Let's do some win picks here for the Sony open in Hawaii based on the current odds over a fan dual sports book. I'll refresh right now to make sure I have the best ones. You can go first. If you want answers, since you already bet him, you can take him. It's just really between Kevin not answering Gooch for me because I've bet all those guys. So I'll probably go Kevin not and I'll go answer. But I wouldn't hate Taylor Gooch either, like I said. Let me scroll back up here. I'll take Gooch then. Do you have Kevin not answer you said? Yeah. I'll take Gooch. And you know what? Let's do it. Shameless power, gonna win the Sony open in Hawaii this week. What? For your picks for Houston. I wasn't the same. Sam Burns, Shameless power for the RSM. Louis Weasley, Shameless power. You have like this, you're like magnetized to Shameless power and you don't even realize it. And my wife's last name is Powers. Like is that, is that why? I bet that's it, yeah. Okay. He was fourth at the RSM. That doesn't cash in outright ticket, but. You know, but we're in the hunt. One of the Barbasol, we didn't talk about that. So, you know, my long lost cousin, Shameless power. Can I play that angle? Well, how's your long lost cousin? I'm married in, you know. And the names are different for like the close enough. Probably like somewhere in the distance, I don't know. Hey man, who could say? Not I, not I said the cat. That is all that we have here for this week, Brandon, any final thoughts for you before we send the good people off to fill out their lineups to the Sony open in Hawaii? If you're gonna play like 10 or five or 10 lineups, try not to get like, I know we talked about a lot of golfers, just try to narrow it down so that you don't have like one or two shares of literally every golfer. Just narrow it down even if you're not certain. You just gotta do that over a handful of lineups. Yeah, commit to guys. It's going to lead to volatility, but it's a volatile sport. You're kind of signing up for that at the beginning. So, be okay with bad outcomes. They're gonna happen. That's true across all of the FS sports. Don't worry too much about floor. You know, just make sure that when you are right, you are in position to benefit from being right. I think that's the way that I'd phrase it. That is all that we have here for today on the PGA podcast. But as mentioned, we are back here once again on Thursday to get you set for all three slates on the wild card round of the playoffs. Again, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, with some discussion of the six scheme slate. The six scheme slate offerings are a lot better this year than they were last year. I'll say that. So, we'll sprinkle in some talk on that throughout the podcast as well. That is Thursday at 10 on the FanDuel YouTube page. Hit subscribe there. And also hit the like button for watching YouTube. Thank you to those of you who have done so already. And hit subscribe on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at Goodwill13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I'm at Jim Sonnis, G-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your PGA DFS lineups. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.