 Hi and welcome to this week's supply and demand, forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis. My name is Leon and I am a currency trader at Trading180.com and getting into the week ahead, the 20th of August, the main news event next week will be the Jackson Hole Symposium taking place between the 24th and 26th of August. The title of this year's symposium is Structural Shifts in the Global Economy and Chair Powell will speak on Friday. We'll get into a bit more of that later in the video and in addition, but less important will be the economic data releases after the move hired by US yields this week following more solid economic data releases. Next week's schedule is much lighter, suggesting no reason to see yields retrace this week's moves. So durable goods data is probably the most significant release on Thursday and the highlight of the week will be the advanced PMI data in Europe taking place on Wednesday. The data from Europe has been terrible and if that is confirmed again next week, it will likely help drive the US dollar further stronger and that's a report from MUFG. So before we get into the technicals and some further fundamentals, just for the traders that are in the private mentoring group, if you go to a trading videos channel in the discord group, you can access the weekly fundamental and technical analysis for the pairs that are on the fundamental analysis spreadsheet. So that goes into a lot more in-depth fundamentals if you are watching this video and want something. So again, some more in-depth fundamentals and technicals. So going into the dollar index and starting off here and the dollar has been going from strength to strength and really it's been a culmination of the fact that the data really has been stronger than expected in terms of the economic data. Although inflation is coming down, there's the narrative of a soft landing and a soft landing or hard landing is basically just the term used to describe whether the economy will go into a recession or not. Soft landing will be maybe a bit of a bumpy ride but will be okay in terms of economic growth. A hard landing will be if the economy goes into a recession. So the fears of a hard landing of dissipating and it's really the narrative has turned to a soft landing which is supporting the dollar at the moment. And so when we look at Jackson Hole and all eyes on the Fed Chief this week in Jackson Hole as well as other central banks as well, this is ECB Lagarde also speaks of Kansas City Fed Conference Turkey Iceland set to hike this week Sri Lanka to cut rates but it's really all about what Jerome Powell is likely to communicate at Jackson Hole and what Bloomberg economics says is that they we expect power to strike a more balanced tone in Wyoming hinting at the tightening cycle cycle's end right so that's interest rate hiking cycle to come to an end which we already know right while underscoring the need to hold rates higher for longer and that's again another narrative I guess in effect of the fact that there is a soft landing because if the economy is holding up then in fact the U.S. and Federal Reserve may not have to cut rates right because in a recession if the U.S. was heading into a recession then you typically rate cuts do follow a recession or can lead into a recession right in anticipation of support in the economy so if the U.S. economy is heading for a soft landing then it means in fact that there's no need for really rate cuts as soon as what was previously forecast and also as well they could they may be able to keep rates higher for longer which is actually supportive of the of the dollar and so with that being said looking at the dollar index really you're probably looking at more continued buys so if you do get a bit of a pullback into some sort of demand zone is confluence and that's going to be a nice area if you do want to be long on the dollar now again it does depend on what the Federal Reserve communicate this week nobody knows but if they pretty much come out and are a bit supportive of the dollar then I do think that the dollar is likely to go into at least an auction or what you know traders would consider a ranging market state whether you know it starts to auction from here or whether it auctions from you know up at somewhere up at these highs right you might see something like you know this start to happen where you know the market decides to go sideways and also as well what is supportive of the dollar at the moment is China as well so China going into or having economic problems and economic contractions at the moment deflation stimulus not really working that is also supporting the dollar because it creates more of a risk off environment and money in a risk on environment would come out of really the dollar and go into think currencies like commodity currencies whose trade partners whose China basically are their you know biggest trade partners if China is growing then their economy tends to you know import a lot of commodities from countries like Australia New Zealand for example Canada and so that is supportive of those currencies but if China is not growing then it's not going to buy as much commodities right in terms of you know for infrastructure projects etc and that also weighs on the global economy in terms of commodity can anyway in terms of commodity prices and their economies in terms of imports and exports so at the moment the the dollar is being supported by some risk off sentiment because China is not growing so we'll either see a pullback to the upside or prices can continue going higher but eventually there will be a pullback but any pullbacks I think are probably buying opportunities unless the federal reserve do actually totally do a 180 and they become very very dovish but can't see that happening for now so yeah so that's where we are the market is still actually when we look at the the CME group they're still thinking that there's a chance of a hold so so yeah that I wouldn't even say that's really weighing on the dollar that much as I said because it's more probably about the the fact of the soft landing now but they are expected to hold let's see what happens there so the probabilities can change we have about what's that 31 days according to the next FOMC meeting so let's see what happens with the probabilities of a great hike or a rate hold and if this starts to go up if the hold if the sorry the hike starts to go up and increase then you can that's another supportive factor for buying the dollar so dollar yen dollar yen this week we did get prices move above the 145 area again based off of a strong dollar came into this this supply zone at the 146 50s close to 147 and then we started to sell off now the Japanese yen I am a position in myself to go long on the Japanese yen I have a long bias and Japan's deeper inflation trend to keep Bank of Japan on edge over prices a pace of core inflation gains x energy returns to 40 to year high and service price gains hits 2% for the first time in decades so the inflation side of things in Japan is looking like it's supporting a change in monetary policy and in Japan it's a it's a big deal right it's a massive deal so I am getting along on the yen in anticipation of that fact now not against necessarily the US dollar but against other currencies weaker currencies for example like the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar is more of my bias and I'm actually in a short CAD yen by trade which is now profitable so yeah I think for me the yen is a buy and I said inflation data is key and inflation data came out supporting for me a yen buy now one of the downsides to the yen is the fact that Ueda the governor of the Bank of Japan seems to be still very dovish but I think with inflation coming up he can't really deny that data so I think overall there could be an opportunity to short this from this level here or if prices go up and go further higher devaluing the yen the Bank of Japan will be forced to actually intervene which they're close to doing anyway and so if they intervene basically they're trying to stop the yen's devaluation which should actually again appreciate the currency now if you want to get long on the dollar yen then you're looking for really any kind of pullback from really here from these levels into a demand zone around here or around this area right there so around the 142 50s to the 140s but I'm I'm in a long term my position my bias is more long term to buy the yen I say long term but at least for the rest of the year I'm looking to buy the yen especially against the other currencies on the fence I would have more of a short bias but I really for me to get short on that dollar I really want to see some of some things come in place but my bias overall would be to actually go more short on the dollar yen I think it's more opportunity to the downside then there is to the upside so my bias actually is to go short the dollar yen dollar swiss again my bias is more to the long side we've made some higher highs at the moment you've got a bit of a demand zone there so I think any pullbacks into either this lower level here right into the 88 86 sorry round number or even where we are from now just to pull back into this demand zone around here would be nice for a potential potential buy now the swiss frank is looking a bit a bit expensive and I say a bit expensive I say very expensive and so there were reports that in fact the some of the banks some of the major banks are actually positioning themselves short on the on the swiss national bank which makes all the sense in the world because they've actually achieved their their 2% target their below the 2% target so I do think that any pullbacks on this currency pair are nice for a long trade if you do want to get short then we're looking at supply zones somewhere around these highs before looking at getting short you can get short off of you know support resistance but personally I don't really trade support and resistance in isolation it's more about supply and demand for me support resistance is just in addition to supply and demand zones so horizontal anyway so if you are looking for short trades you can look for you know we've a short trade here for price to prove that there's supply there and then wait for a pullback into that supply zone before getting short but my bias is to the long side dollar CAD again the CAD not necessarily being supported at the moment I think core inflation ended up coming down slightly so again the the probability of a bank of canada hike is actually lower than they would hold so at the moment the dollar seems to be the stronger out of the two so really just pullbacks into you know some demand zones before looking at getting long not looking to buy the Canadian dollar anytime soon not for now until maybe if inflation becomes a problem but no that's pretty much where I am if you are looking to get short then a pullback up into these zones here is decent just remember that this level has been touched a couple of times so it's not necessarily the strongest area of supply so that's where we are on the dollar CAD New Zealand dollar US dollar saying last week that the path of these resistance is to the downside waiting for a bit of a pullback but never happened prices continue going through the demand zone and so anyone who buys just off of technical analysis is always going to get you know stuck and thinking why levels don't work and it's really because it's prices are driven by value and the New Zealand dollar at the moment the bank is actually holding rates they're in a recession you know the the the US is in a is in a better economic position than the then the New Zealand dollar and as well China isn't supporting the commodity currencies and actually supporting the the US economy right so now this just you know makes for nicer pullback into that supply zone for me and then looking for some some short trades for now I think if you do want to be long on the New Zealand dollar I think you definitely need some sort of catalyst for you to get long on that but personally I'm not really looking for any kind of long trades at all even regardless of whether prices come up or not I'll ignore that and just look for you know basically one way you know the path of these resistance so so yeah because it's harder to pick it's harder to pick the bottoms and trying to buy a currency that is weaker so there's no point in trying to do it even if it does happen so if it pulls back then brilliant it just gives me a an opportunity to short further right the pattern so looking at the pound and the pound actually had some decent news this week and so you the record UK wage growth keeps the bank of England on hiking paths so companies bid up paid to retain staff and tight labor market and unemployment increases as more people return to jobs market so UK wage growth accelerated at the strongest pace on record underscoring the bank of England's concerns that it hasn't yet broken the wage price spiral feeding inflation across the economy so basically long story short they're looking to continue to hike so with two I mean our buyers would probably be more to buy the the the pound over the over the the dollar but I think I've gone a bit cold on this currency pattern I think the upside is probably capped and also as well I think the downside is probably capped although there are opportunities to buy still at these areas I think if you're buying then the upside is I can't see really prices you know moving all the way to the upside here not for a while anyway but let's see but when you've got two currencies that are quite strong you want to I wouldn't necessarily say avoid them but you know be a bit more cautious and I think there are better trades out there so for me I think I'm less keen on this currency pair at the moment but there is still a divergence between both central banks so if I had a bias it would be more to buy the the pound than it would be the federal reserve but these are the levels that you're looking at nothing's really changed from last week prices pretty much has gone in you know this contained within this high and this low right from here to here and so yeah I think for me I would maybe just avoid this currency pair for now Euro dollar Euro again struggling a bit against the dollar whereas the dollar has had some really good economic news and economic data the saying can't be said for Europe Europe has been struggling Germany's been struggling and as we've kind of highlighted at the beginning of the video you know PMIs have been haven't been great so if it continues then we could see a continuation of the euro weakening down to even the 108's 10750's so that would be something but ultimately I think for now the I think the dollar has the edge so if you do want to be a buyer of the euro I mean now is a really nice level to look for a buy but it may not hold if the data doesn't support that narrative right so you know if you're going to go long on that euro then you better hope that you have some news to support that that long trade so that's where we are otherwise you're looking at short trades up into an area of supply to look for any kind of short trades to continue to go long on that dollar or buy the dollar against the euro euro yen and again I'm more bullish on the the yen than I am the euro at the moment we do have finally some supply not the strongest area of supply at the moment but it's decent nonetheless I do think intraday wise there is an opportunity to get involved in this pullback so you'd be looking at something like this prices pullback and intraday trade like a stop hunt around these these highs so there's something there if you do want to get low on the euro then that I think that the demand zone is really nice technically but I just my bias again is more to the short side so I'm looking for any kind of pullbacks to get involved in this to the downside especially if you know the continued economic problems and issues continue in in Europe so that's where I am with this currency pair and these are really the levels that you're looking for euro pound euro pound blasted through this this demand zone the obviously the pound strengthening based off of interest rate hike hopes and the market pricing that in um in fact I didn't even really talk about the euro one second I did have an article about for the euro so the ECB is still seeing delivering one last hike in September and a poll shows so economists see the positive rates being lifted to 4% next month and result come amid signs that inflation pressures are easing so there is some supportive evidence that the euro again may have made appreciate based off of interest rate hikes but the the the problem is is just economically the euro zone isn't great so we could see a bit of a you know move to the upside as prices are in this overall range this auction between you know the 0.87 to 0.85 so about 200 pip um auction we could see prices move to the upside but ultimately I think the powerful is resistance is to the downside as I think the Bank of England are a lot more hawkish than the ECB so the nearest really pullback is going to be all the way up at these areas here or if prices make lower lows like that then you're looking for a move to the upside pullback like that before going short so that would be where really where I'd be looking for a trade if I was looking to trade this pair and uh Aussie dollar again Aussie dollar I said I was saying last week same thing with New Zealand dollar poverty resistance is to the downside and again you can see prices kind of broke through that area zooming out we have come down to a demand zone around here um demand and then we've got some I think the rest of this is probably demand as well now again you really have to really have a strong reason for buying the Australian dollar at the moment I mean again you can always buy the Australian dollar based off of maybe some dollar from some US dollar weakness but really I think I tend to buy off of strength so um any pullbacks into his own uh I'm really looking at again what continued downside at the moment there was some news that came out for the Australian dollar which I think it was unemployment came in higher so that was actually um supportive of a rate hold in fact so uh so yeah we've got really I think more moves to the downside to come uh you've got the underside of this level which from a daily perspective you could kind of see I shall think probably uh it's a bit of a wider area of support resistance but I think I'd want to see yeah prices come into that supply zone right there that hidden supply before looking at getting uh short I'm taking the short trade and finally gold gold again dollar strength saying this last week that prices could come down to come down to this really nice technical area uh the 1886 and um yeah let's see what happens around here but for prices to move to the upside we'd have to see some dollar weakness and again that could be triggered by what the fed say this week or not right so we could see um you know the fed could uh be actually still be quite hawkish and in which case you're probably likely to see prices you know move further to the downside so um depending on what the fed say and if the market interpret that as being hawkish um or or dovish uh it's going to determine really where the price of gold is going to go at least in the short time so um gold for me is all is always a long term buy you know if you're doing if you're investing but from a trading perspective um it's a bit more uncertain so if you are short dollars then by proxy you should look for long gold and if you're long dollars then in fact you should look for any kind of short gold trade so the nearest supply zone is going to be actually there so you could look for supply or pull back into this zone here the 1919-1912 as a matter of fact before looking at some sort of short trade you know nice intraday short trades to zoom down into like the one hour or whatever time frame you do trade and look for maybe some trade in and around that zone um if that's you know your preference uh in in direction um but that is it for this week so uh yeah hope you have a great trading week and speak to you all soon stay blessed