 Very good morning to you. First of June, hope you're doing well. And if you're based in the U.K. and U.S., I hope you had a lovely long weekend. But getting you back up to speed on what's been going on and a bit of a review for the week ahead. And we'll also talk not only about the news, but look at the charts from a technical perspective as well. Gonna talk a little bit about inflation in Germany, some data we saw yesterday, latest COVID situation, OPEC meeting happening today, of course. The pound traded at a three-year high overnight in the Asia PAC session. We had the RBA rate decision where actually the Aussie dollar sold off irrespective of them holding policy. And then also a few other bits to look out on the calendar for today. So looking at the charts firstly, let's just give an overview of where we stand from a technical perspective. And I'll try to layer in a couple of the news arse calls as well. So as I mentioned, the pound did touch on a multi-year high in the overnight session. Dollar index is generally weaker this morning. It is down about two-tenths of 1%, albeit we're starting to see a slight fade from those initial highs that were seen in the overnight session for the time being as Europe come into the market. Couple of things then here, looking from a technical perspective with the pound. No, for one, why is the pound, which if we put this onto a daily chart? So everything from here, this encapsulates the last one and a half year or so is worth the price action. So we're starting to encapsulate here the downturn, but we saw on the onset of the global pandemic and then the recovery that we've seen thereafter. And on the daily chart, we're at a really key point here because we're retesting up and around the February year to date high of which we've just traded above, hence the three-year high we've printed overnight. So we're trading at the moment here. If we start to just push this chart a little bit further over to the left, you can see right over here to the right-hand side would be the 2018 high. So if we did continue to push on and above this week, then the next target would be 144. Now from a sterling point of view, what's the deal here? Why are we seeing such a research in pound? And it really is to do with the vaccination program. The UK was arguably very slow to adopt restrictions right at the beginning of the pandemic, but they've been very quick to deploy the minister vaccines as we know on the rollout program. And at this point in time, that continues to move on at pace. Three-quarters of the UK population will be covered with a two-dose vaccine within a month, based on the current pace of inoculations and data from Bloomberg and the Johns Hopkins University. We've got some meaningful milestones obviously coming up this month, which is the 21st of June for the ultimate kind of ending of lockdown that we've been in for several months. Whether or not that that happens on the 21st of June is a bit debatable because of the gradual uptick that we're seeing in COVID numbers in the UK, albeit in context still quite low on the back of the Indian variant. And that really is still probably yet to peak at this point and feed through into hospitalizations and death rates. But the point being is that now with more people immunized the wave, if you like, which was anticipated around this time of year shouldn't be as bad as we've had before against touch wood. And so therefore that lends its hand to whether 21st of June or not, the economy is going to reopen in time. And with that being the case then, there's a lot of kind of chitter chatter around the fact that the Bank of England could arguably follow suit of what we've heard from the Bank of Canada, from the RBNZ and start leaning on the more hawkish side of policy in the period ahead and bringing forward rate increases into 2022. And so that more kind of progression if you like on the normalizing out of the post pandemic comparative to the Fed being fairly standing pattern at the moment not wanting to move, then that plays favorably upside for further gains in the British pound going forward. So definitely have an immediate perspective still remain even though we've moved a fair distance even in the last month or so. Technically now we're at quite a key point if we can break above here and close above on the daily charts this week, then it might lend its hand to then a continuation up to 144 eventually amid the ongoing weakness that we've been seeing in the US dollar as the Fed want to just be gradual and cautious. And obviously this week of course we do have the non-farm power report we'll talk about that a little bit more but remember last month that was a shocker. And if that comes in weak again then it's only gonna probably further cement then the fact that the Fed are gonna hold off until they see something more materially consistent in economic data to warrant them any hint towards tapering and tightening policy with their view of inflation being purely transitory at this point. On a shorter timeframe for cable just having a look here there's a trend line I've gone on as you can see that goes back to the end of last week so starting from the 27th about a test on 28th and we've come up to test it in yesterday's holiday quiet session markets were to a certain degree in futures open and we did see a nice progressive move higher thereafter so only pullback here you can see we found a little bit of rough support at the European Open around that previous hunt 27th any further pullback would be ironed down around 142 handles to this area here as near support with the trend line then below should we move any lower on the pullback but overall looking for a continuation of price to be supported lower down if we were to see that move lower to pair back some of the overnight gains. In the Euro not too interesting here right now on the shorter timeframe on the half an hour on the daily chart certainly we did see a false break back on the 28th where we ran through that trend line going back to April and again the European story's been pretty positive I mean let me just quickly show you you'll remember there's that age old saying sell in May and go away well you wouldn't have done very well if you sold in May and went on holiday A the weather was atrocious and you wouldn't have had a very good holiday but B also European stocks recorded their fourth consecutive month of gains and in fact Italy and Spain I think were putting in kind of five, six percentage points in a month alone and as you can see here you've had a really nice progressive move higher across all of the major indices. On that point you know why is that happening well actually if you look at the vaccine situation much like I was talking about the UK being very good with their initial rollout program to get ahead in that process Europe were very slow if you remember a few months ago but they've really started to get their act together in the recent months and as you can see here the steepness of their people receiving at least one vaccine has continued to increase at a fairly decent pace whereas the UK and the US just levelling off a little bit but we could anticipate those to start picking up some more of those vaccines supply starts to come back online over the coming weeks but positive signs here positive signs for the global economy you could argue but equally so at the moment the equity space liking it for the idea that this is all positive, the economy is going to reopen but it's not yet positive enough that it's really filtering out to all central banks to start talking in a more hawkish manner because that definitely is just a minority at this point but that's definitely something to watch over the weeks to come just while we're here talking of Europe just having a look at Germany then and there's a couple of German things to be aware of, one on the COVID restriction side and one on the inflation CPI side we had some data yesterday starting off with Germany has gradually been easing restrictions as infections have fallen and vaccinations have accelerated so here you can see COVID-19 infections per 100,000 people over seven days and you can see it's been continuing to decrease to one of the lowest levels we've had certainly year to date and below that kind of threshold 100K figure that they had which had led to more recently a lockdown law passing in the Bundestag and what Merkel said yesterday was that effectively given now that the current case rate is at its lowest level since mid-October of last year and as of Sunday 43% of the populations received at least one inoculation Merkel confirmed that those Bundestag laws for mandatory restrictions and curfews which were set to expire in June that is set to be the case unless there is a further mutation of which they will take action so again another positive in that sense for the European economic prospects given how important Germany is on the inflation front how's that looking at the moment well a couple of things I wanted to point out here I mean the headline would suggest here German inflation climbs to highest since 2018 as lockdown eases as local authority started to lift coronavirus restrictions on restaurants, shops cultural venues CPI came in at 2.4% versus expected 2.3% I always find it hard sometimes reading Bloomberg hard in a sense of quite grating because they put out this type of headline and factually of course they are right inflation has climbed to its highest since 2018 but this is absolutely sensational and not applying one drop of context at all and as we know inflation is has will be rising sharply going forward because of those effects that we know of multiple but also mainly the base effects the other thing here as I said it's always whenever you see these types of headlines and data always kind of question it and look for any other rationale behind why is the number so high and this doesn't just go for inflation this goes for reading interpreting economic data full stop and a couple of things here the Bundesbank for one the Bundesbank themselves have said inflation in the country could climb as high as 4% this year 4% so the fact that we're at 2.4% against normal measurements you could deem in a non-contextual way is quite high is also 0.1 high and expected but the Bundesbank have already prepped the market and we're going to double that effectively so this shouldn't really spook the market secondly prices are being boosted by several special factors reversal of last year's sales tax cut changes to the basket of goods and services and how that is measured as well these are all having a meaningful impact to make the number higher as well so a couple of things there just wanted to cover that because I want people to get spooked in that respect by thinking all of a sudden we should start panicking about inflation or anything like that alright next thing I want to talk about is OPEC and let's talk about the news first and then we'll bring up the oil chart because we have some really nice gains in the overnight session and starting off with ministers are expected to press ahead with a gradual increase that had already been penciled in for July completing return of 2 million barrels since May in theory, according to the deal that was brokered in the middle of the pandemic when they really had to support prices last year the group committed to hold at that level until early 2022 but a tight market may call for that agreement to be revised and so here what they're talking about tight market, meaning that demand is picking up with parts of global economy reopening but it gets tight in terms of the supply side because there's just not enough oil come back to market so the natural thing then is they could revisit that plan and start to actually just water down how stringent their cuts currently are to offer more supply to the market delegates have said initial discussions would begin today the OPEC meeting is today and the alliance's moves well they'll talk about the alliance's moves after July it's a key thing to look out for apparently though, according to delegates no decision has been made as yet however, we have had sources yesterday afternoon who said OPEC Plus is not expected to discuss the output beyond July they want to wait and see what happens with Iran and that really is why we've moved higher in the overnight session and if we just have a look over at oil this is a 30 minute chart for oil you can see here we've had a nice move during the age of, this is the APAC session we've really just started to rally and move up we did have the occasion manufacturing PMI overnight in China 52 against 51 spot 9 but really this is a reaction effect to more participants coming in reacting to that overnight news we have found a bit of a short term platform now for price support from that previous hike we had at the end of last week we came down to test that close as Europe have come in and we just bumped back higher but on the session, look, we're up at $40.67.72 and on the daily chart if you start looking at oil here we are at very important levels because if you take that previous high that we had in March and then we're up at those previous highs at the end of April of 2019 we're getting up to trading at multi-year highs here and one would think that if we get our heads above that year to date peak then really can't see why we can't get up to 70 bucks psychologically here now over a medium-term perspective which would put us back up to October 2018 highs so, you know, Tim and I have remained fairly bullish oil for some time and even through that period of pullback we had through mid-late May and it's proving to be the right call for the time being but on the intraday again, I'll be looking at $67.51 on any pullback that would be an area of support now followed by R1 which was also the high that was seen during yesterday afternoon's US session and the futures market any further pullback then I'd be keeping on this trend line initiative from the 21st tested on the 27th, 28th and the pivot coinciding with around the pivot level or the 67th handle depending on timing as an area of support but oil generally trading firmly higher this morning and looking out for any of those OPEC comments the other thing is not only then did I say that sources are saying they're not expected to discuss output beyond July and if they stay put that keeps the market tight and that was as per some of the reports that were coming out from third parties about the tightness of supply at this present point in time as you can see from here but one of the other things is Iran and Iran is a real source of focus for energy traders at the moment because obviously they've been in dialogue with world powers and namely the US and whether or not they can rekindle that relationship and go back to that 2015 nuclear accord which got kind of torn up by President Trump now a couple of things on that point Iranian deputy foreign minister said negotiations are complex looks like a deal is not likely to happen in this latest round of talks secondly Iran has failed to explain traces of processed uranium discovered at some undeclared sites according to the latest IAEA report that we've seen overnight so to me given the comment from the Iranian foreign minister given what I've been saying all last week about the complexity of these talks and therefore we should be a lot more pessimistic on the timeline for structuring a deal and getting it agreed and then thirdly the fact that this IAEA report has come out there's no deal coming in imminently in my mind and so therefore this whole kind of fear of a flush of Iranian crude coming back online I really don't think is going to materialize anytime soon so for me again further kind of just tracking of economic data akin then to the reopening in key geographic regions in the Western developed world as well as globally particularly in China as well allied to the fact that the Iran situation and then open to stand back hence the reason why we're up already up around a dollar and a half this morning sticking with commodities let's just have a quick look at gold gold has had a nice little breakout as well early well two part Asia pack session we had a little blip hire and then Europe's coming we've just bumped higher again we've just printed a height 1918 spot 9 up around 13 bucks short-term got a bit of a trend line going on from the end of last week had a retest yesterday and then around that 1909 was the final bounce so any further pullbacks probably keeping nine around this level 1912 and then around that trend line as well on the upside on the daily these are the kind of same chart we were looking at last week which was the progressive kind of areas to focus on on any progressive move higher and the next stop here is what we're looking at last week would be that high that we're printed back on the eighth of jammed that would be around 1918 spot four here on a daily continuation and we're not far from there at the at the current present point in time probably beyond that point I'd keep an eye on then seventh of jammed high 19 kind of 30 that also starts to encapsulate here I just put in a lips so this high here but then also these price points going back to where we were trading the October kind of peak as well from last year would be the next target so this thing's still leading looking good for any of the gold bugs out there quick look at the Aussie dollar and just going to bring that into shot the Aussie dollar has had a bit of a seesaw performance in the overnight session it was moving higher generally speaking under the premise of the weaker dollar but then has excuse me, it was moving higher on the back of the weaker dollar overnight but then weakened out weakened the greenback and declined and reversed all of that move on the back of the RBA rate decision so what exactly did they say and why did that move happen so the RBA kept their cash rate and three year target rate unchanged at 0.5% while it also maintained parameters of his QE program or pretty much as expected but if you think about it in the region the RBNZ just last week talking in a much more hawkish fashion they was their forecast talking about their rate what they see for interest rates going forward which really promoted strength in the Kiwi dollar last week and there was some thinking that the RBA could follow suit I guess at the moment they're still trying to tackle COVID Australia's second most populous state of Victoria if you remember is currently still in lockdown after they reported their first locally transmitted coronavirus cases in nearly three months and then so at the moment I think until they get the real all clear on that regard perhaps then they'll continue to shackle the hands of the RBA at the moment irrespective of what the RBNZ decisions were the week before one other story just I wanted to mention for the calendar for the whole week was Tesla it's never a normal weekend without some kind of Elon Musk tweet and he didn't let us down he came out this time instead of talking about Bitcoin or Doge he was talking about Tesla and the price of Tesla vehicles is increasing due to supply chain pressures across the auto industry particularly for raw materials that was actually Elon Musk replying to a tweet that someone has said in a string of commentary I mention this because obviously Tesla's a big company it can influence the global not global but the US stock indices of which it trades because it's one of the larger index weighted components but one thing is how much it will move not too sure it'll be interesting to watch the pre-market because this marks the fifth incremental price increase of which Tesla has done in just a matter of a few months so perhaps it's not that surprising in that regard I'm going to look at the indices before we just talk about the calendar so I'm going to have a look at the S&P firstly I'm going to put it on a daily continuation same drills last week still kind of watching this area of an inflection point around 41, kind of 80 level you remember last week at the beginning of the week I think it was a Monday we broke out above it and it's just acted as previous resistance now to solid support and so even though we've come off and faded a little bit from the highs that were seen last week you know if you think about things we still are up within close proximity to record highs at this point in time so for now I think I'd just be looking at that as a range last week's high of 42, 17 to that inflection point and strong support area at 41, 80 is quite key now going forward for the S&P in a similar vein it's not too dissimilar for the NASDAQ 100 for the NASDAQ 100 at the time being I mean I was just looking at this chart this morning I feel fairly doesn't look too compelling right now but obviously we had that big jump up at the beginning of the start of last week and this range low I think is quite key for price going forward so you've got those lows that were seen yesterday afternoon in the futures market which line up nicely with the low on last Thursday pivot at the moment finding a bit of resistance which was also the yes time yesterday's morning high in the futures market but don't see that as being too much of an obstacle any further above than those highs that were seen the recommencement of electronic trade on Sunday night and then just playing the kind of range I guess for the moment I mean overall from a daily perspective looking on a much more higher timeframe this is going back to June of 2020 so this is a year long trend line for the NASDAQ 100 future on the daily chart and it's been such a nice response to that area as we've continued this progressive move higher so at the moment you can see here the NASDAQ is a fairly challenging point from a technical resistance point of view you can see here if I just put this ellipse on and let's just zone in a little bit so really it has failed to break above this last week and that will be the key level that I'd want to be keeping an eye on so if we translate that to the daily I'd still prefer range kind of trades at the moment over then not unless we get a breakthrough and we get a daily close above this level then it will be much more bullish to take us right up to the higher levels but this week is going to be really key of course we've got payrolls on Friday payrolls was a meaningful development if you remember from the prior month and certainly I reckon it's a bad number that takes us up to record highs as weird as that sounds because it's just going to mean that the Fed aren't going to move anytime soon and by default then it's almost like the perfect storm for equities then further gradual global reopening and the Fed they're willing to read through inflation as pure transit tree and so a lower for longer policy adjustment to normalize means that that's generally a good environment for equities and that could well be the case again so let's just have a quick wrap up the calendar just conscious of time so as far as today is concerned we've already had the overnight stuff and then later on this morning we do get the German latest unemployment rate and change the rate expected 6% to change minus 5,000 you do have the various different PMIs coming up but these are final readings interesting though for the Euro and European assets will be the HICP flash so Eurozone CPI expected to year and year to rise to 1.9 from 1.6% and then you've got the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 8.1 into the afternoon one of the main highlights is going to be the ISM manufacturing PMI according to analysts at ING these are expected to stay strong as you can see a fairly unaltered number but well above 50 in the expansionary territory at 60.8 news that General Motors reopened five plants having seemingly overcome chip shortages is likely going to be welcome news on the manufacturing front and also further reopening of course on a state level it's likely to help on the services side of things as well these will obviously be quite key on the employment constituent will be watched closely of course to give us a little bit of a reference point as to formulate expectations around the payrolls number on Friday so that's coming out this afternoon 3pm that'll be key I'll keep you guys updated as and when I hear any further updates on OPEC Plus but of course be keeping an eye on Emina Baker on Twitter who works for Energy Intel she's like the most informed go-to person for breaking news well before Bloomberg Reuters could ever dream of getting it out there she's got the ear of all the officials and she normally breaks all the stuff that moves the market first but I'll keep the community informed otherwise speakers today couple it does include the Bank of England Governor Bailey but is talking more climate change so not really expecting too much there in terms of an actual comment on the economy or policy Qual and Brainard are both voters and speaking the latter on the economy and monetary policy and she's been quite vocal of late but definitely much more on kind of neutral to dubbish side of things I'd say so keep an eye on that 7pm otherwise let's jump to Wednesday and what have we got so Wednesday really want to focus more on the afternoon kind of session let's have a look in the US yeah fairly quiet actually because the US obviously was a memorial on Monday so a lot of that data has been bumped actually until Thursday so on Wednesday mainly it's just speakers you need to keep an eye out for it does include Christine Lagarde she's just a prize award ceremony but nonetheless worth noting then you've got Feds Harker, Evans, Harker again Kaplan, Kashkari, Bostick loads of Feds speakers coming on Wednesday otherwise what is quite quiet the economic data kind of front and then on Thursday you get the overnight Chinese services PMI get the final services data out of Europe and the UK and then you get ADP national employment obviously seen as a main precursor for payrolls expected at 545,000 so a decrease from what was 742 last time out initial jobless claims last week remember hit a new pandemic low at 406,000 so we'll be keeping an eye out for the latest estimates there and then we'll get the ISM non-manufacturing PMI again expected to be a fairly strong number and that will act as the final piece of information then going into the Friday payrolls figure DOE all inventories any oil traders going to come out Thursday not Wednesday and at 4pm London time not 3.30 because of the holiday always is that way on a bank holiday and then more Feds speakers plus Bank of England Bailey and then going into Friday of course then we have non-farm payrolls one of the things and one of the things you might have seen here to remember is lots of Fed speakers this is Thursday going to Friday got feds Powell speaking on Friday but again at this climate change conference but the point being is there's a lot of Fed speakers this week and the reason for that is the Fed meeting they hold their next meeting on the 16th of June and this week is the last week for them to communicate before of course they're going to that blackout period where they can't speak and so this is their last chance to really try and guide the market and remember this is quite important and I think the rationale why there's so many speakers is that everyone's been looking at June because June's 16th meeting we get the latest summary and economic projections and so therefore we're looking for clarity about this idea about when the tapering discussions might emerge any alteration in the doplock matrix to become a little bit more steeper for rate rises more sooner rather than later and at the moment the Fed are stuck in a bit of a catch-22 the economy continues to progress obviously we've got inflation starting to emerge and the jobs data this week could be quite a key component and it's quite interesting that you've got all of these speakers speaking that their last chance to really communicate thoroughly to the market before that blackout period does commence but that is it I'm going to leave you at that let you get on with things remember if you're not part of the community then you can join us for absolutely free at amplifylive.com for the guys already in there on the pro service then we'll see you on the live feed shortly and have a good day and week ahead alright, take care