 Okay, folks. Good morning and welcome to swing trading today. This is Bob Desmond and it is the 17th of February I normally like to do these as live streams, but I got started a little bit late tonight but today I should say and No time so I'm gonna do a video here really quick I shared this with members last night that I am for many many reasons very very concerned about Members go to the members area. Please check out my higher-level view the monthly chart of The Russell 2000 and the massive massive call option buying that we have never ever seen Nothing like it a speculative mania that is Off the charts relative to 2000. This is now my third bubble And this is setting up to possibly be the absolute worst given the amount of debt that we have and the lack of Resources that the Federal Reserve will have at their disposal to balance out of this one so We're gonna begin with a an hourly chart of the NASDAQ normally I go to four-hour charts but this one's important because what we're seeing here is a Potential not a guarantee a Potential head and shoulders set up on an hourly time frame left shoulder head right shoulder forming I Want to take these two Support levels off There they go now what we want to do is take our crayon out and draw our lower band of support if This breaks Expect more behind this. What does that mean expect a bit of program selling now? This is only an hourly chart so it doesn't mean a day lose of selling It just means pressure But as you see or feel more and more pressure on the markets the algorithms feel it and they respond in kind So beware NASDAQ down just shy of a quarter percentage point We are down below a support level potential head and shoulders set up forming and again potential not a guarantee the Russell 2000 of which we are short now one hour time frame yet again and When we open for business yesterday, it appeared as though We were gonna piggyback off of Monday's trade remember these are the future. So the futures market was open a portion of Sunday into Monday Monday into Tuesday, but it was closed for a while there for the holiday So they spiked it on Monday really no big move beyond Monday's move They couldn't hold support here. So we have a double top on an hourly time frame You could see I have alerts set here For if and when we break to new lower lows Because that's gonna spell trouble for the Russell 2000 and again members for the higher level view go to the members area Check out market wrap from last night the S&P 500 Similar to the NASDAQ in that we have a potential Head and shoulders set up and normally And this is to be fair. Yes, I'm bearish, but we don't want to be doom and gloomers here. We want to be Educational as well. So normally in a weak market, you'll get a lower Right shoulder than the prior. That's not the case here. So here's your left shoulder. Here's your head Here's your right shoulder and this is your 45 degree neckline. So do we Consolidate and then begin to break out which is entirely possible giving all the liquidity out there or Is this a Buildup to a sell-off remember it's about a year now since the markets began to wake up to COVID and began to roll over And why am I bringing that up? Well, you're seeing news items across The news spectrum about Ebola in Africa Now we've heard about Ebola for years now But is this a doom and gloom type fear thing to try to shake people out of the market? I don't know But all is not what it seems sometimes when you're reading the headlines and to that you're seeing markers speculative markers again call option buying not to just record highs But it extreme nosebleed all-time highs That's speculative penny stocks rallying Wall Street bets pump and dumps on GameStop AMC all the meme stocks not to mention the technicals how extended we are the VIX Gapping up this morning Let's pull back here to a four-hour timeframe. I mean the S&P 500 is only down slightly This is a pretty big move for the VIX So there's fear Entering this market The however is it's not fully reflected. Let's go back to the S&P 500 really quick. I Mean you could argue that we're flat on the S&P 500 down spot zero four percent yet The VIX Is gapping up Beware the dollar The dollar has gapped up It is moving up higher now to me, this is not a read of Strength in the market or in the economy. It's a read that people are getting worried. They're pulling the money out of bonds They're exiting somewhat out of the stock market You saw some yesterday fund flows moving into the US dollar for liquidity So a big reversal bar yesterday and a continuation move up higher This is a four-hour chart not insignificant, but to be fair You could argue that you know what the market sent you a signal back here that we were weak and probably gonna break down left shoulder Head right shoulder. It never happened So as I talk about these prior charts and head and shoulders set up Just be aware it doesn't guarantee that it's going to follow through to the downside It didn't happen here on the dollar and it may not happen on the indexes Bonds continue to sell off today. That means yields are rising folks. We went over this with members yesterday on market wrap and I've been going over pretty much every live stream that I do on YouTube the ten-year yield absolutely Ripping ripping up higher cost of borrowing moving up higher And at some point in time equities are going to take notice and yesterday may have been day one Now I do believe that we're gonna get a bounce here on bonds Especially if the stock market begins to sell off, you'll see the dollar get a boost You'll see bonds get a boost So we're actually looking because we do have a short position on already we're looking to lean into shorts of equities and move cash out of The dollar and into bonds for the very short term not as an investment just as a safe haven Because longer term we do not believe that they're going to be a safe haven gold We sold some of our gold mining position yesterday in Anticipation of a break. We now have that break. We are inside of a downtrend channel. I set up this trip wire Yesterday morning prior to the market opening 5 a.m. Hour. We broke support Hearing a lot of chatter about silver about the spike a ton of headlines about it and We're gonna go over that chart now because while it's true That we may get a spike All the headlines forecasting it, you know rarely do you get that you don't get a Forecast of this is about to break out and it's all you see our headlines coming out about The ensuing short squeeze on silver. We had one back here and I told members do not go buying this Pump it doesn't make sense. In fact, we sold our silver miners up here. We bought them back down here So silver is down this morning despite all the pump and dump clamor It is holding support on a daily time frame It does look better than gold on a daily time frame But if this market begins to go expect weakness in everything Including the metals at least in the short term and the reason why this is lumber the reason why we want to Begin on any pullback begin to add back and build on our mining positions is because of inflation It's out there folks That's why the bond market is demanding more premium on bonds The problem is the US government can't afford those interest payments This stock market will buckle on a point and a half or two point ten year yield Remember before we added on multi trillions of dollars of debt the last time we had a two-year excuse me two percent yield on the ten-year bond economy began to go into two convulsions now with trillions more on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and on the Treasury's balance sheet at What point does the stock market does the economy on rising yields begin to buckle? So they'll eventually have to go for if this market does fall apart. They're gonna go for zero percent interest rates And once we begin to sniff out that they're gonna make that move then we move heavily into Mining stocks perhaps a bit of crypto emerging markets So beware folks There are a lot of markers of science of a bubble Members I will talk to you tonight on market ramp and everyone have a really profitable trading day. Be well