 Hello and welcome to the Lowy Institute's Pacific Changemakers, a podcast where we discuss political and development issues. My name is Meg Keen and I'm the director of the Pacific Island program at the Lowy Institute. In today's podcast, we'll be gaining insights about the upcoming Solomon Islands elections to be held on the 17th of April. When people spread over more than 900 odd islands in nine provinces, we'll go to the polls in an election that will significantly affect the country's development and security future and also affect the intense geopolitical competition between Australia, United States and China. Most of our listeners will be well aware of the social tensions that rocked Solomon Islands from 1998 until 2003 when there was a regional assistance mission to Solomon Islands comprised of security personnel from across the region and led by Australia to help re-establish a degree of stability. But after its exit in 2017 there was still much for the government to do to bring about prosperity and stability. More recently Solomon Islands has grabbed the world's attention when it switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019 and then in 2022 when it struck a security agreement with China that is unparalleled elsewhere in the Pacific Islands region. Since 2022 there's been a flurry of high level visits from Australia, United States and China, as well as many others, eager to gain or to maintain influence. Aid is steadily growing but despite the largesse the economy is in difficulty and people are demanding more from a government which is struggling to provide services and unity. Joining me today to discuss the Solomon Islands election and their implications is Dr. Anook Raidh. Anook is a research fellow in the Department of Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University. Prior to taking up this position at the beginning of this year she lived in Hania'ara at the capital of the Solomon Islands for over 15 years. Her research has dealt with peace and security as well as community resilience. Welcome Anook. Thank you, Mike. It's good to be together again and revisiting Solomon Island issues. Anook and I have known each other for some time now. We first met when I was working with the regional assistance mission in Solomon Islands about 2011 but since then we've also worked together on several projects relating to informal economies, climate resilience and national stability. All relevant to the upcoming elections and the political and social dynamics that will shape them and indeed the future of Solomon Islands. So Anook, I'd just like to begin thinking about these upcoming elections that are on the 17th of April so hardly two weeks away and the future leadership of the country and how this election may significantly affect geopolitical relations but also the economy and governance and peace in the country. So can we start with some of your reflections on why these elections are significant and what is at stake domestically but also strategically? Yeah, thanks, Mike. So the election, this particular election this year is significant I think in part because what's happened over the last five years. So since Prime Minister Sogovari was elected by his peers in 2019 the country has been rocked by several shocks. The first one was their riots. We've had two riots, one in April 2019 and a very larger one in November 2021 and these riots were in part related to political grievances, grievances people had with the national government at the time. We've also had COVID-19 so the experience of COVID-19 outbreak but also a long state of emergency, one of the longest in the Pacific during this COVID-19 period. During the state of emergency power was incredibly centralized in the Prime Minister's office and for example you know people who were engaged in informal marketing around town had to suspend some of their marketing activities. There was widespread economic consequences of some of the state of emergency measures. So we've had riots, we've had state of emergency, COVID-19 and of course the famous switch from bilateral relations with Taiwan to China and all the controversies that developed around that including a quite a large dispute between Malata province, the most populous province and the national government over the direction the country was taking with the switch to China. But during all this time I was in Honiara and frequently I would meet people who were angry with what the government was doing and I always you know as a peace builder I always encourage people you know wait for the vote. Yeah when you have the vote this is your chance to have us say you know what we want is for elections to be a peaceful transition of power you know as opposed to coups and other things that can come up when you know people are facing a lot of shocks they're in situations of instability and conflict can break out. So there's a lot riding on this election domestically you know can we have a good transition of power even to Sugavare or to another leader without conflict and can people reach some level of political compromise where the future government can go forward with its directions. In relation to foreign power and influence in the Solomon Islands too there's different factions and sort of issues coming into play obviously Prime Minister Sugavare has staked his political reputation on close relationships with China and even admiration for the Chinese political system and the opposition leaders have been more pro-west but actually also more focused on domestic issues you know the state of the health system the education system and other issues that are facing you know people in their everyday lives. So there's a lot riding on this election in terms of where Solomon Island goes from here. How do we respond to the shocks we've had is this putting us into a different direction or a similar direction to where we've been in the last five years and just going back to that state of emergency concerns about centralized power. We know the tussle between the central government and the Laita following the switch. This election sees provincial and national elections occurring at the same time and really it's not just about the Laita and the central government there's many of the nine provinces that feel that they don't have enough power and that the services which you talked about just are not reaching them. Is it significant? Is this something different that we're having national and provincial elections together and will this affect what's going on? We certainly see donors more active out in these provinces as well. So how do you see this combined national and provincial election affecting the outcome or do you think we'll make any difference? No, I think it will have impacts. So it will be the first time that on the same day you go and you vote for your national member of parliament and you vote for your member of the provincial assembly in your province. So it's the first time they've been held concurrently. Now what this means is good candidates from the provinces have to decide now before election day. Do I go for the national seat which is incredibly competitive or do I go for the provincial level seat? And so people are making their bets both ways but if they lose at the national you know they run for national parliament and they lose they can't then run for the province. So it is reducing the talent pool that will be available for provincial elections but also I think what we'll see now is more allegiances after this election between national politicians and provincial politicians because this is really the only way to get things done is to work at both levels. So it'll impact who runs but I think ultimately there'll be coalitions forming across provincial and national government leaders to do things like you know advance mining or advance you know more forest conservation and climate finance and these kind of adaptation schemes that are bringing in green finance in the country. So the other thing to think about too here is that when people vote they do it for a mix of different reasons but often local issues are really important to people deciding how to vote you know so do I know this guy locally? Is he in the in my constituency? Is he doing good things for my constituency? There's something visible he's done in the past five years. So at both levels people will the candidates will be judged on that level yeah whether they're actually delivering something for rural areas. The other thing that's happened that it will impact the vote too is they've tried to with the new election system to control out of constituency voting so what's happened in the past is you know wealthy MPs they gather a bunch of people from one constituency take it to another constituency get them to register and vote there and this can really sway the vote in significant ways. Now they've tried to crack down on this so they really have to be registered and in the constituency when you vote but it'll be interesting to see whether the new regulations actually have that impact because it could mean that we've got much more rural people voting in rural areas but at the same time maybe the absence of you know the more elected more educated you know people from that constituency who are based in town not having to say in their local areas and for example public servants have complained like that they don't necessarily have the ability to go back to their electorate to vote and that this will impact the quality of the vote at the local level so there's these dynamics to coming up with this particular election. The other two elements that are weighing in that have been raised by opposition leader Peter Kenaloria is that there is a larger number of youth that will be voting for the first time and they are hit the hardest by these very difficult economic times and the lack of work opportunities. The second factor he's concerned about is the low finances from China that is particularly benefiting the incumbent leaders in government. Do you think those two issues are a worry or is it just that the opposition is concerned about a disadvantage they might have or an advantage with the element of the youth? Yeah well okay this are the current members of parliament who are part of Saguaro's political coalition do have an advantage in that for the first time in 2021 discretionary funding in the constituency development funds were only given to members of the political coalition. First time ever you know we've always had discretionary funding going to members of parliament but for the first time in 2021 that discretionary funding part of it only went to members of the political coalition so they have had more money at their disposal to spend in their electorates you know over the last few years. Okay now whether that helps them win the vote again is an open question because at the same time one thing that I was often hearing in Nanyara and around the provinces was take the money, take any money that people offer you. Typically there's what they call devil's night where just before the vote unscrupulous MPs will actually give out physical cash to people saying okay come vote for me tomorrow here's your $200. So this devil's night behavior has been a theme in elections since the tensions. Okay but what I'm hearing now is particularly young people and others sort of saying let's just take the money and then vote how we want right. Now whether you can do that whether you can take money and vote how you want depends on whether you trust the electoral system and this is where the Solomon Islands Electoral Commission will be under a lot of pressure to really prove that they are trustworthy because particularly in rural areas you will meet people who say oh my member of parliament has the list of people who voted for him and I'm not on the list so that's why I don't get any of this particular scheme. So switching that round to sort of having people trust that when they vote it's confidential and they can vote you know according to their own beliefs and ideologies is a big thing to consider as we see how this election plays out as well. But I think as we move forward with all of these shocks and all of these hardships in Solomon Islands people will think more strategically and we may see more of like the money actually not translating to how you vote. We've also seen and there's opposition political parties in pretty much all of the electorates now campaigning and often more than one sort of opposition party with you know a reasonably well known candidate campaigning. So the opposition is getting more organized although it's still fractured and our party which has seen a sort of soga virus party is also getting more organized and is in more electorates than we've seen in the past. So intense competition money will probably flow whether the money will actually deliver the vote whether people actually see that there has been some translation of discretionary funding into real benefits in their constituencies in the villages and towns where they live. This is the big question that we have to see. And let's go to how the prime minister gets selected in Solomon Islands because everybody votes you get your 50 MPs they all go behind closed doors and they decide who the prime minister is. It's not just that a political party has the most votes and that you know who the prime minister is going to be and this is this devil's night that you were talking about. So I'm interested because of course of the media it's all about will Saga Bari get back in and if he gets back in this would be a first that a sitting prime minister in Solomon Islands gets a second term never happened before. It would also be the first that someone gets five turns at being the prime minister. So I'm interested in your thoughts of that or whether Melanesian politics will kick in and it'll decide it's time for someone else to have a go and we might see a different prime minister when that devil's night wheeling and dealing starts to happen. So it's pretty hard doing crystal ball gazing but what you're thinking going into the election and I guess really importantly does it matter whether it's Saga Bari or someone else or is it just changing in the guy at the top but the system stays the same. Yeah well what we can expect to see is you know different camps probably an opposition camp and a pro Saga Bari sort of out party camp forming at the hotels in Honiara and trying to attract you know MPs to either side. Now typically this also happens with sort of behind the scenes people from you know the major foreign industries mining logging retail and tourism also playing a role and there's always speculation about money changing hands to join over to make a majority and also of course ministerial posts being offered you know to make people join over to their majority. Now whether Saga Bari gets in it's really an open question. We have to see first okay who has the majority of MPs so and that it can be quite small MPs so there's 50 members of parliament so to get a majority you only need 26 you know at the minimum. So who gets the majority and then who and then how they coalesce around a particular prime minister. So a lot of former prime ministers are running and may get their seats back in this election too so whether some of these former prime ministers you know think it's their time to have another turn might be an issue there and also whether the backers you know whether financial backers will back again Saga Bari or another candidate for in the either the opposition camp or the current political coalition camp is an open question but one of the things to watch for in terms of conflict is if people have the perception that who is prime minister is driven by foreign money yeah rather than by you know the MPs really acting on their own beliefs and consciences this can lead to riots and we saw this most prominently in 2006 yeah. So the announcement of prime minister itself might be quite controversial depending on the narratives that are circulating around town at the time. So we just hope that you know the the vote will be relatively clear there won't be narratives of foreign interference or foreign money flowing around so that the next prime minister has you know a good mandate on which to govern. And I think you've just hit on a key point because first we will get an election of a prime minister and it seems to me it's going to be quite divisive because there's going to be winners and losers in terms of who people wanted to get up could affect the recognition of China could affect the security agreement with China and you mentioned 2006 when you had two days of riots millions of dollars worth of damage when it was seen that the the election was a bit rigged. So I'm interested in your thoughts about security we know Australia is in there with about 500 security personnel police and defense we know that BG is sending security Papua New Guinea probably is going to be sending security New Zealand will be sending security there's a lot of security sloshing around town out in the provinces hoping that if anything goes wrong you can be the column can be brought very quickly but what's your thinking of this are we likely to see conflict and riots. Well I think the important thing to keep in mind is there's several flash points where conflict could arise okay one is voting day but I think that's unlikely the second one is the announcement of the prime minister. Now if the prime minister wins on a small majority there may be several court cases to challenge the electoral results and if those court cases attract large crowds and are sort of seen to be deciding perhaps the direction of the government then these could be very controversial as well plus if there's rumors going around that maybe you know the electoral commission isn't doing its job or there's been sort of some sort of foreign interference in the election all of these things could you know lead to crowds of people developing up and potential sort of conflict or even riots breaking out so we have at least six months of probably uncertainty before the court cases you know take their route and we have like a cemented government in place but the key thing to look for and as you know I've written about this for the Australian Pacific Security College and several different outlets the key thing to look for with riots is what are the narratives that are circulating around so if we have narratives circulating around about foreign interference foreign money about the election results being rigged in some way then and these rumors also link to large groups of people who are loyal to a particular MP then we can expect potential conflict breaking out and the foreign forces that are there then have a really difficult role because they want to be seen as trustworthy they want to be seen as independent they want to be seen as there in the interests of democracy you know which of course they are but they also may be subject to you know allegations of this and that you know as events play out so it's going to be a tricky time for Solomon Islands foreign friends who are there to help with security to do what they can to ensure that people trust the vote and people trust you know what RSIPF are doing you know around the vote around the court cases and around the election of the prime minister and the other is sort of in the mix which I didn't mention with all these security forces is of course the Chinese also have security there and there is an issue of if a crisis happens how well could all these forces work together is there also concerns about the changing base or possible changing face of security yeah I think there is and I think these concerns relate to whether democracy survives in Solomon Islands you know Solomon Islands is a relatively young country democracy is is always you know been sort of shaken by different conflicts and different issues that have come up and it's always been seen also you know the particularly the western parliamentary system that they have is something that was inherited from the British it wasn't something sort of actively chosen so the debates around federalism and giving more power to the provinces to govern you know relate back to this initial problem we have of you know a very centralized system of power based on parliament that maybe doesn't fit the diversity of you know the country and the different issues that the different provinces have so can can we have this vote and restore people's trust in democracy as a way of resolving some of the conflicts some of the issues that are really popped in the political space right now is a big question and and I think you know there have been some comments recently from some saying that you know pointing to the some of the things that they believe is wrong about democracy so some of the political leaders are sort of are more or less actively saying you know we need to have a different system of government so whether democracy itself survives this vote and also the years after it is another question and I hope it does but there's a lot at play but when you consider the the political polarization that's happened you know the centralization of power that's happened the role of foreign industries in actually creating powerful political coalitions in Solomon Islands and then of course you know seven out of ten Solomon Islanders are youth and you know what are their expectations for how the country is governed you know will they sway towards you know one or the other vision of how the country should be governed is a big question so there are a lot of issues in play both for this election and for the next government well and look I think that's a good place to to wrap up in just highlighting what a critical time it is for Solomon Islands and that while there are a lot of geopolitical issues and jostling going on there's a lot internally that are gonna it's gonna affect these elections and ultimately the devils and I the MPs getting together are the ones that's going to make a critical decision and then that will be sort of the second vote of the people on how they respond to that new leadership so I think we're in for some pretty interesting times and I like the point you're making that just when the election day is over mid-April doesn't mean the process is over and there's still a lot to watch watch out for so thank you true for your time and your insights we might come back to after the election when it settled a little bit I'd also like to thank our listeners for joining us for this episode of the pacific change makers certainly if you've enjoyed this podcast please recommend it to others but also have a listen to some of the other podcasts including with the Solomon Islands opposition leader that we've done in the past I'd also like to thank our podcast producer Josh Scotting for his assistance and hope we see you soon and you join us for the next episode thank you from the pacific change makers