 This is covering the spread part of the fan tool podcast network Week 8 in bedding is defined by a lot of teams where I have to ask myself What on earth am I supposed to do with this team because a lot of teams the NFL right now are puzzling I have to decide can I buy low on this team or are they just totally dusty and the problem is a lot of the teams We're asking you that about are in the key games for week number eight Break those down with Ryan Williams get his thoughts on those games in his favorite bets across week eight in the NFL This is covering the spread right here on the fan tool podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Orion Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W We're gonna preview week number eight in the NFL Ryan your bear has got a huge win Monday You had Clial Herber anytime touchdown just capping off an awesome week Equinemia St. Brown went over his receiving total in like five minutes. No sweat there So yeah, I feel like you ought to be in a in a good spot head wise heading into week eight. Oh, yeah We're running a heater, baby No, it's always fun when when your team You have no faith in them and they come out and they shut you up real quick So that was a fun game to get after and you know where we're excited about where things are there But yet anytime we can you know win people money on those island games. That's what it's all about So we're just we're just I'm just a man of the people. We're just trying to give the people what they want Jim that's what we're trying to do But you're also trying to win yourself some money to you that bears alts win total was it six plus wins that you had preseason Six and a half. Okay, so they're up to three now all win total But five and a half with the straight up one total they're getting there. They're they're chugging along and the NSC North looks pretty bad. So it's wide open. I think you're in play there for sure Well, we're not talking about the bears for today. Unfortunately in that game against Al So we'll be talking about some big games across this week though and talking about again Offenses that are struggling and deciding how to handle them as we're now pretty deep into this year It had not seen them wake up as of yet We'll break that down in just a bit for first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your Podcasts our college football week nine a betting podcast is up had Austin's swam of number fire on to break down his hair A college football bets this week with myself and Dr. I fang find that on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the fangal YouTube page also the player prop episode week eight Coming up tomorrow with JJ Zacharyson Should be up around noon or so in both spots So get those by subscribing to the fangal YouTube page and to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed The NBA season is underway and now it's the perfect time to download fangal America's number one sports book because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars That's up to one thousand dollars back and free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandal has all your favorite bets for the NBA You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay the fangal sports book app is safe secure and super easy to use So download fandal today to get your no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars Make every moment more this season with fandal official sports book partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only Refund issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms that sports booked out fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash rg in Arizona 1 800 next step or tax next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc pg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 810 9 with it in Kansas 1 810 5 2 2 4700 or chaos gambling help calm in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 in 7 7 8 Hope and why our text open why? We intend to see call the red line at 1 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 in Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler Net now before we dig into the individual games this week Ryan I do want to talk to you overall about how to assess these teams that are struggling We got the the box the rands the Packers all of the NFC curiously which is a good thing for the Eagles But we've seen these teams struggling and we'll talk about the rands and Packers and their games this week specifically later on But in general How what process do you go through and trying to decide? Should we buy low on these teams or are they just totally totally not going to turn this thing around for the entire year? Yeah, I think it's a it's a slippery slope right because we're seven weeks in so people feel like We know everything and and we understand how the rest of the season is gonna go But I think for me it's looking at how the games have gone and how these teams have played You know for for Green Bay, for example, they just they're just making so many mental mistakes Like if you're paying attention to these games and what happens They're starting off very strong in these games and they just end up blowing lead So they end up, you know, not hitting on an offensive cylinder Getting squeaking out lucky wins against Tampa Bay a couple weeks back So you you look at that team and we look at the trade deadline and see, you know Okay Can they make a couple moves that might make them feel alright because the defense has actually been pretty stout and Honestly has kept it from being, you know from having them get boat race because the offense can't put up points for a team like Tampa Bay They've been showing us all season long that they've been in disarray The offensive line struggles coming into this season. We're tough, you know, Mike Evans getting suspended In week three or whatever that was, you know, definitely hurt Chris Godwin's been on the injury report The defense is not the same. Mike Evans is begging for grok to come back and post game interviews So, you know, I think that everything that's gone on with this team including with Brady, you know That that's a lot to be able to dissect dissect And when you're looking at, you know, the teams that they play I mean, they got the you know, they got the Ravens tonight Then I believe the Rams and then the Seahawks before they go into that week 11 by then come out and play Cleveland And you know, who knows who the quarterback for Cleveland will be it's tough sledding for them. And this NFC South is, you know I guess the solace for them and you know, the thing that they can lay their hat on is that They play in the NFC South and that's why I opened so maybe they can squeak in so it, you know For me, I'm looking at How the season has gone what's to look forward for the rest of the season I think the the trade deadline is a big factor because you look at a team like the Rams last year making that OBJ trade when Robert Woods went down. I think that, you know, there's a lot of things that have been left Unsaid for how these teams will look in the season And so that's something that I try and keep in mind set on and look at future bets and division bets and see Where I can get some value on teams. Yeah, I think that what you said There was key was the anatomy of the losses that they've had, you know What's that been the path to those losses and with Green Bay? I think there has been some fluke-ness a little bit at least but the problem is now No, Randall Cobb and potentially no Alan was our and I've got Packers plus 10 and a half We'll talk about that game later on and I'm very nervous about that But there has been some fluke-ness there and with the Bucks You could potentially say the same thing because that Mike Evans dropped touchdown last week like maybe that plays in but they lost 21 to 3 they got their butts kicked by Carolina and I also have a Bucks money line ticket tonight. So hopefully this doesn't sound stupid Friday morning but like I Don't know my numbers are still saying to bet them and it's both the 2022 only model and my my model with priors is saying to go that direction Doesn't feel good But I'm still winding up there for a lot of the reasons that you discussed, you know Trying to dissect how we got to where we're at now Let's talk about one of those teams within that discussion. That's the Rams We got the 49ers at Rams this week 49ers one and a half point favorites This is the first full game we could see with Christian McCaffrey, but potentially no Debo Samuel He's banged up right now for the 49ers But we're at a McCaffrey in the fold and we often talk about how you know running backs aren't going to move the needle a lot in terms of betting and I think some of the moves we saw Sunday morning might have been a bit of an overreaction with that Tampa Spread moving like two and a half points after McCaffrey got traded. So I'm uncertain about how to view him with this team I'm excited to watch it Christian McCaffrey and a Kyle Shanahan Scheme what's your view of this offense McCaffrey in the fold now and how do you think this game plays out? Yeah, this is I mean this as much as we talk about Jimmy G You know not having to do much in this offense because the weapons that they've set up around him I mean, this is just another Cog in that in that statement where just give him the ball. I mean you saw it last week This guy's already playing on the first and second series, you know in the game against the Chiefs and he's Just taking off runs. I mean it's rocket ship emoji with this offense with Christian McCaffrey there It's so unfair that they can you know use motion with him and Ebo and it's like how are they supposed to you know? Contain this team the the worst part about the offense is that Jim? You know, you have to have Jimmy G back there and trust that he's gonna make the right play I mean this guy just I don't know what it is. He gets into his head I mean he has layups here, you know, the team is built around you I get it the defense is struggling and the secondary is heard and that's gonna be tough for them this week against the Rams But just the offense in general. I'm really excited about I think that they kind of control their own destiny here I've not been on the Rams. We talked about this early on in the season Like I thought Matthew Stafford with the thumb injury They were kind of just you know trying to sugarcoat that and make it not seem like a big deal And it is and you know, I think they're missing pieces on the offense outside of Cooper Cup Who can move the ball the running back situation is absolutely abysmal With care makers, you know being held out DMPs and Daryl Henderson's now banged ups and Kyron Williams is gonna be coming off of IR potentially So we'll see what happens there But yeah, I think the 49ers should absolutely roll here Shanahan has had McBays number in the past and we've talked about that before Yeah, my models actually have conflicting uses which is confusing to me I my traditional one the one I use has 49ers minus 1.32 so pretty much a lot of the market my 2022 only model actually says to bet the Rams and I don't want to And like that's confusing because like we've seen the Rams be pretty bad this year So you look at that you're like why if it's looking at just 2022 ignoring priors Would it be so high in the Rams in part of that's because The 49ers have also fallen pretty far short of my offensive prior on them and now the defense is banged up So I think that's the reasoning for it saying this it says the rancher favorite by 1.4 points Which I don't know personally. I wouldn't put them there But it isn't really this one is a stay away from me where I have the two things very much in conflict the one I trust saying It's very efficient So I'd rather just not take a bet then then force one in there But it is odd to me that the Rams are popping up in the 2022 only model because I've been Disgusted by them. They have no juice like that's kind of what you were alluding to like they need something outside of Cooper Cup maybe Van Jefferson is we can add that back in it if he returns this week But like if you're relying on Van Jefferson to be like the savior of your offense That's probably not super inspiring. It's not great. That's not great. No, it's it's been tough I mean Ben Scoronic is their second best, you know, I will Tyler Higby. Excuse me I don't I don't mean any disrespect for the Tyler but in the water Shever room. Yeah, Ben Scoronic has been the second best police for that offense Which yeah, it doesn't doesn't let you sleep well at night if you're gonna be betting this team And he's been fun because he's been playing like fullback and stuff like if if you're like again Your enthusiasm is because of a guy who's like Fullback tight end wide receiver a hybrid. That's a that's a little bit scary, but the Rams Yeah, exactly. Yeah, Ben Scoronic the new Taysom Hill. I can get behind that Maybe maybe his elbows healthier than staffers. I don't know about that Let's stick in the NFC West talk about the Seahawks on the Seahawks three-point favorites against the Giants At home total is 44 and a half and we don't know yet Ryan if that calf will play in this game How much does his availability alter your view of this Giants versus the Seahawks game? Yeah, I Not that I don't care I feel like that's a Weird road to take here because DK MacF is so explosive and I don't you know What the people holding that against me as I say that but like, you know The way that you know Smith and this offense has been playing like it It does matter, but it doesn't matter, Jim Like when Markey's good one can go out there and start burning and get reps and meaningful reps on this team And like they're just throwing in whoever at tight end, you know, basically before when Russ was there And Tyler Lockett, you know is still there Kenneth Walker has been showing us a lot I really you know this this line, you know, if you would have told me this is where we were at You know with Giants and Seahawks coming into, you know week eight Before the season I'd be like that's disgusting, but three-point favorites at home. You know, we just got to ride the wave I'm sipping the green Kool-Aid With with that. I think the Giants, you know They've played some teams that just haven't been going on all cylinders and now they're coming into a road match up here Where that's exactly what's happening with Seattle like they are riding the wave as strong as they can possibly Possibly could be and like they're looking at the division, you know Rams are vulnerable 49ers are, you know trying to up the ante of what it means to win the division there So, you know, the Seahawks are gonna come into this game thinking that, you know They can compete and belong to win and you know, we'll see what happens with the Giants there at the quarterback position I know Daniel Jones has been banged up sequence been banged up. This defense has actually been really good But losing Daniel Belanger. Well, well that you know, that might not mean much to people But he's been like the most consistent Offensive piece for that team with Wando Robinson being hurt. Can he go all day being held out? Still didn't shut her to going down a couple weeks ago. Like they they just they've been Fortunate and lucky enough to be able to be in positions to kind of win these games And I just don't know if they can do that on the road in Seattle this week. Yeah The the Belanger one was gross like that looked that looked fun So hopefully it's better soon, but Tanner Hudson we talked about him on a Monday show a couple weeks ago Didn't do well there, but hey, maybe he gets a chance now I think it would be Chris Myrick most likely being their lead tight end, but Tanner Hudson, baby Let's let's let that baby cook now. This is one where my head Goes up against my numbers and I hate that it's not fun because I love Gino Gino is amazing It's a Gino Smith revenge game again this week which I adore and I also like I want to be skeptical of the Giants because they're six and one and That's pretty fluky based on the things you discuss where they're beating teams who are maybe not a full health and stuff like that But my numbers say I should bet the Giants My the Giants win odds at 46.5 percent and their implied odds at plus 134 in the money line are 42.7% so about three and a half percentage points of edge there and that's enough for me to take it You know, I typically want at least two percentage points of value and I actually have that here My 2022 only model says Seahawks should be favored by point-setting points and Again shocking to me I thought that it'd be all over Gino because they've been so good this year But also like the Giants have weirdly been not that either if you just look at adjusted early down passing efficiency Like they're 16th in that and I don't think they're perceived as being 16th Then when you add in how good they've been on the ground in early downs They actually rank 7th in adjusted early down efficiency so far this year and they've been pretty good on third down as well Like you said the defense has been okay. It's odd I don't really want to bet the Giants because again, I love Gino and I don't want to root against Gino But I have some edge on the Giants here without DK mech half being factored like I haven't assumed in right now because I don't want to assume that I haven't assumed in and still saying to bet the Giants and It doesn't make me happy. I did take the money line yesterday at plus 134 So it doesn't make me happy But like I feel like I kind of have to trust my numbers over myself on this one Which is not a super exciting proposition when that involves betting against my son Gino Smith Exactly. Yeah, and I was just looking here real quickly. I mean, yeah 134 with the Giants on the money line I mean, I think that's more so if I was taking the Giants bet I'd be willing to you know, they're even with them getting the three number But I think that's the more likelihood outcome because this is how they've been playing the past couple weeks Yeah, I don't know. We'll see don't feel good about it. I'm excited on so it's a 425 game So by 513 is the over under for when I regret this I'm gonna put that as being the odds over under 513 p.m. Eastern It's when I regret betting the Giants money line. Let's finish up here with the Sunday night game that's the Packers at the bills bills are ten and a half point favorites total 47 and a half and It's a huge spread here But that also makes a lot of sense based on the two teams involved Can the Packers keep pace and cover or is this justifiably a huge spread? Yeah I mean, I think that you know anytime we're getting a number close to 11. You got to look at the other side I mean, I get it the Packers have not had any merit shape or form to want us to put You know hard-earned dollars on to them But we you know, we've seen just the way that the scoring has been this year I was scoring being down these larger spreads are just not covering in the same way that we would expect them to it's actually the games with the You know lower spreads that are kind of you know pushing pace and they make sense right because the lower spread We're expecting that game to be competitive and you know the offense have been keeping it close and then you know If it just so happens to be close then, you know, we see a lot more scoring To have happened, but yeah, this one at ten and a half. It just kind of feels gross I mean Buffalo coming off of the buy there. I know people are probably gonna be riding the wave And especially without Cobb and Lazard if he if he's not able to suit up You're like who's he gonna throw the ball to and how are they gonna get things going? But you know, it is a decent matchup where we could probably see Aaron Jones Hopefully get more than four carries in a game get AJ Dillon more involved and just try and control the pace I mean if they can keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands I think that's gonna be the recipe to just you know, make sure that you can sustain Sustain drives against this team. So I'm willing to take the points here just because it is such a large number And just you know letting letting Buffalo go out there and improve it, you know Once again that yeah, we can just boat race any team that kind of comes to fruition Against us, but you know when it's they've been covering by so much and the Packers have not been able to cover To save their lives and it's been happening for weeks on end when I see You know trends like that show their face. I tend to lean the underdog side yeah Packers plus seven and a half is where I met as well talked about that on Tuesday because I Mentioned this Tuesday, but my model does not back test well in these large spreads where Typically what will happen is if a team is fair by ten and a half means they're much better And you can get a blood situation where our script gets out of hand And they don't cover as a result of playing catch up the entire game, right? But I don't know if the Packers will necessarily get there I think that they've been like he's a good enough early in games to keep this game close So maybe it won't be a super negative game script And again looking at the 2022 only model because my priors were high on the Packers coming into this year So I want to make sure I am accounting for how bad they've been it still says it's a seven point two one point game So a bit closer there the actually the blended model with the prior actually says the bills be fair by 8.32 So that one's actually a bit lower on the Packers somehow or higher on the bills So I'm going to take the Packers plus ten and a half like you said it feels gross, but Just based on the way this thing this thing looks I feel like I want to go that direction I'm not sure if this was a okay. We're gonna make you pay a bills tack I'm not sure if they wanted this out of the teaser zone to make sure people were getting across Across seven and across three with a teaser on the bills I'm not sure really what it was But it just seems like it's a bit high at ten and a half and if I can get ten and seven and three and Packers win all in my range of outcomes. I want to take that. So I think the Packers plus ten and a half is a way to go here They were plus 430 on the money line earlier on this week. I thought that was interesting That was at Caesar's not a fandal. They're four four to one a fandal right now I don't think that's quite enough for me to take it But if they were to go to 430, I would be intrigued on the money line there at least as well Okay, where else is he in value for week number eight Ryan? Oh Let's look at the card here. Um, so You know, we're looking at New England in a bounce back spot I feel like even though they're on the road Mac Jones will be starting again, but Zach Wilson You know just has been not he's he's been covered by the way The defense has been playing and the way that breeze hall was playing and with breeze hall being out for the year Unfortunately, you know, we pour one out for him. Just having an incredible year was looking like he would be a top pick In next year's fantasy drafts come 2023 But yeah, it's just you know a bounce back spot for Bill Belichick like him coming off of a loss And then you know as a short favorite, I will take that every every time when I can get the chance especially With the way that I think, you know, the Jets have been playing Also in the early slate love Arizona at three and a half honestly against the Vikings who are who are coming off of Dubai as well, too But just you know looking at the way that the Arizona offense has been playing especially with DeAndre Hopkins being back I know Hollywood Brown being out some fortunate, but this team is just over the over the years with Hopkins being Suiting up for this team the offensive numbers have been so much better with him being at the helm Also, we're looking at James Connor, you know, is he coming back even if he doesn't, you know Benjamin has been able to kind of hit stride there. You're getting three and a half on the number there Even though they're on the road. I am interested in the Arizona Cardinals and then let's talk about the Detroit Lions who are at home They're facing Miami. Miami's banged up. They're banged up especially on the defensive side of the football in the secondary And so we're looking at same brown left last game with the concussion. I think he'll be okay to come back Josh Reynolds has been kind of making the name for himself DeAndre Swift. We should get back He's been off of the injury report. I believe all this week, which is a great site to see It feels like it's been week one since that's been the case But you know, this was a team that we traditionally had loved to cover, you know under the Dan Campbell regime And yeah, they got you know, they had an unfortunate situation against New England Patriots where people, you know I thought they were frauds, but it's Bill Belichick, you know At Foxboro where they were playing them. I'm willing to buy back into the to the Lions Especially with people off of them. So I'll take that three and a half number there as well Yeah, that one they also faced Dallas last week, you mentioned they lost St. Brown early on in that game They didn't have DJ Chark. Josh Reynolds is banged up. No DeAndre Swift there It's a very different situation now than it was last week. So I think that makes a lot of sense on the Arizona one I actually took their money line yesterday plus 162 at that time. Okay. It's not under plus 148 I don't want the money line anymore, but three and a half. I Can get behind that. I think that that one the spread is not moved as much as the money line has I think there's still some value there. So if I were betting that game at the current market I would say the three and a half is more intriguing to me the money line, but Again, I I tried to quit them I'm back. I guess Yeah, I like usually my numbers say that the Vikings every week It hasn't been as much this year as it was last year was kind of a joke But yeah, I guess we're back on cliff. What could go wrong? What can go wrong, I know I hate taking cliff as well too, but you know, just one last thing Jim as we talk about that game You know the the Vikings really got a lot to show improve for us I mean, this is probably the best position that this team has been in to win the north This is the best position that Kirk Cousins, you know can be in to get into playoffs and you know, really, you know Right now. They said what five five and one or six and one whatever it is It's just you know, you control your undestiny there So they got to come out and improve to us that they can you know, you know When these games that they're expected to win against struggling teams So, you know, I'm not I'm not willing to be there yet with with Kirk Cousins and company Especially the way this Arizona defense has played against the run It should be a little bit of a rough day for Dalvin Cook to get going But again, if they if they really, you know, want to have people talk about them as far as being a contender These are the games you got to win. Yeah That's a game where both sides if you bet it are like what could go wrong because like they're both the exact same They're both just disappointments. I know the Vikings are five and one But like they they haven't played five and one they they are annoying to bet both teams are awful in that regard So again, what could go wrong with talking at all about that Cardinals versus Vikings game That is all that we have here for week number eight from a a money line spreads and totals perspective But we are back once again tomorrow. JJ Zacharyson breaking down his favorite player props for week number eight over at fan duel sports But get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and find it all in every show up on the Fandal YouTube page as well Ryan. Good luck to you in week number eight. We'll talk to you once again Monday But good luck with your bets and hopefully we can run it back and be as good this week as you were last week Good luck to you good sir. And good luck to everybody out there. Shout out to everybody who's listening to cover in the spread We're having a lot of fun. Just trying to win you guys some money. Just pocket change. No big deal. Uh-huh. We'd appreciate everybody Yeah, I'll take that a trip extra trip to subway. I'm in you know, we'll do that for sure Fine Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am S. A. N. N. E. S. Thank you all for tuning in. Good luck to you this week We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down player props for week number eight This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network