 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good morning everybody I'm gonna get my chart up here folks for some reason my charts just caught out and my says my session expired But they're coming back up. Give me one moment there there I'm gonna hit the button jump over to my screens load it and we got my charts live back again And we need charts today folks because this market is rocking We got the S&Ps right now you're up 45 points on a pretty hot CPI number But on the core number put out a newsletter to my subscribers yesterday folks saying pay attention to the core number man Energy prices they're gonna make the headline number be dramatic no matter what but the market may care a little bit more about What's happening on the core aspect because we all know that energy prices are out of control right now with oil around a hundred dollars Core number comes in a little bit soft and man that market takes it and runs with it man We got the S&Ps up an even 1% right now You're up 44 points trading at 44.52 right now. We have the Nasdaq 100 up 242 points look at this acceleration man You're up 340 points about from where you were overnight folks things looking a little dire last night 13,902 just like that. Look at that pop on the CPI data 14,000 238 the Dow up 184 points right now We just traded up 400 points from the overnight lows and the Russell back over 2000 Bitcoin catching a bit with the market back above 40,000 and 40,000 480 crude catching a bit as well We make it to 92 dollars yesterday just like that We're back to 98 dollars in the price of crude up about four dollars gold contract catching a bit as well 1977 golds up $9 that's 1.5% and we jump over to notes and bonds Little bit of a reversal of the price action. We have been getting folks now. Here's what I'll say Yes, we're at 2.72 percent folks. We're getting a little bit of a pop in the price But you take a look at this chart man Of course, you're gonna get a pop in the price at some point folks You just traded from a 129 handle to a 119 handle in about a month folks Okay, even if you get back within this channel line lower prices higher yield they're coming at us But eventually you're gonna get a little bit of a reprieve in terms of the 10 year Oversold right now that would be the case and boy this market. It's gonna be an interesting open folks We're 22 minutes away from that opening bell and let's jump into the inflation numbers headline number This is what you're gonna see out there for the headline number 8.5 percent quite a number man It is real folks to Households you don't get to take food and energy out of your household expenditures folks That's a real number versus last year April of 2021 We are paying 8.5 percent for consumer prices more than we were one year ago The most since 1981 that was following a 7.9 percent gain in February We knew the numbers were gonna be high energy prices put pushing that up in a big way Now we jump down to the core number because this is what I want to focus on it's what the market's focusing on in my opinion right now Core prices from a month ago only point three percent from a month earlier only six point five percent now 6.5 percent when you take out food and energy When you think about the number of just the pure dollars that we spend on food and energy And when you think about the rising costs of food that we all know grocery store Let alone energy and gas prices going up Take those out of the equation and we're still paying six point five percent from a year ago But both of those numbers less than what the market was looking for Treasuries of course rising on a year-over-year basis goods inflation excluding food and energy and used vehicles Rising eight point one percent in March that adds the used vehicles in there because used vehicles are just bonkers now used vehicles pulling back a lot Okay, this month if you're thinking about getting rid of a used car folks buying something new go out and do it now Services increase five point one percent from a year ago the biggest advance since 1991 airline fairs 10.7 percent in March from a month earlier. Did you see that? From a month earlier shelter costs which include rent in hotels point five percent for a second month That's what it was last one and here you go use car prices down 3.8 percent in March second straight monthly decline new car prices Meanwhile rising slightly if you're thinking about getting a new car if you're thinking about trading in a used car It's not too late. I would encourage you to go out and do it prices for household furnishings furnishings and supplies rose one percent in February Energy costs as we all know Spiking in a big way the CPI reports show that energy prices rose 11 percent in March from the prior month the most since 2005 gas prices 18.3 percent largest gain since 2009 that said here we go gas prices have started to decline in recent weeks in part because of Sinking demand in China where several major cities are under lockdown If sustained the drop suggests that energy prices will have less of an impact on inflation in April It's gonna be an interesting one in April Even so inflation projected to stay near six percent by the end of the year That's gonna keep pressure on the Fed as they talk about but maybe for the first time in a while a slight reprieve I mean, I'm gonna just say the slightest of slight. How about that? Is that English the slightest of slight reprieves and I'm half kidding folks But the market is just catching a breather right now, okay It's up 37 points the core number comes in a little bit soft I'm gonna check this out as well as we come into the break We're gonna be talking over man Kevin Hinks from TD Ameritrade fast market coming after the break can't wait to get his take on this But boy, it's gonna be an interesting open folks because this is quite an acceleration to higher prices when we get an 8.5 percent number and yes Excuse me. You're talking about a core number at point three percent But folks that's still a point three percent core number when we're dealing with oil at a hundred dollars We're dealing with food prices are elevated substantially But for the first time maybe a little bit of waning in terms of the trends, okay? You want the trend to be on your side the trend has been accelerating to higher prices Maybe we've reached a slight peak and I say maybe many times folks because we don't know yet and the Fed's gonna say They don't know yet either. Okay, they need more data the Fed was very aware where this number was gonna come in In my opinion the interesting stuff for data folks is gonna come in the next three or six months They're gonna be hiking. They're still probably come with 50 basis points. Okay, but maybe the market is thinking at this point That they might be able to get inflation under control if already the core number is back to point three percent All right, if they're bringing the heat with 50 basis points, maybe they bring it with a couple meetings If you're already seeing core prices at only point three percent, maybe you see energy gonna wane a bit as well I say that though and we got crude up four dollars and 18 cents right now to 98 dollars and 46 pennies Keep that in mind and the market now S&P given back almost 15 points from the high We're at you came into that number of 44 15 So you pop about 30 points the Nasdaq 100 man You just popped about 200 points from where we're at. We were trading at 14,040. You're now trading at 14,000 218 let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. See how we're trading this morning We'll kick it off with Apple Apple shares jump about $2.50. We're at 168 28. You were trading at 165 75 as of the close yesterday Microsoft shares right now up a few dollars to 288 man, Microsoft really pulling back yesterday Excuse me folks still battling a little bit of a cold 285 down Excuse me up $3, but man look at that move now. This is a daily. Okay. This is not tying in this morning's action But boy Microsoft that was quite a leap yesterday And there were a couple of notes put out on Microsoft that was not just the market talking about maybe having some problem with Microsoft 365 waning numbers, etc But Microsoft catching a $3 bid would jump over to King dog Amazon shares up about 50 bucks to 3078 right now. Let's check out Tesla mr. Elon Musk back above 1000 at 1001 stay tuned folks S&P's up 36 will be coming back with our man Kevin Hinks. 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We have the S&P's up 35 points right now NASDAQ 100 futures up 215 points right now Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks every training day folks 12 noon Eastern time on the TD Ameritrade Network Fast Market your host Kevin Hinks Tom White they break down the day's market action walk you through hypothetical trade setups folks You're talking about option options You're talking defined risk and boy you're talking about some volatility today Kevin Hinks. Good morning Good morning Tommy or Brian. Well, we've been talking about this number For about a week or so as being a number that might be explosive and the expectations were big and At least the headline number delivered on those but it was the core Tommy the ex food and energy number and Some of the metrics frankly within the number that really gave this market a little bit of a relief rally that we're looking at here Well, you know, we'll see how this day plays out But you know with the 10-year yield now back down towards 2.272 here We're getting a little bit of a relief rally Tommy and not really surprising frankly You've been talking about Kevin that 10 year oversold. I got it up in the think-as-soom platform here Man, you put it on a daily basis and this run that it's had from March 7th with a 129 handle We get down to a 119 handle and just Kevin since the overnight session I know you're looking at it, man, but we just traded up almost a full point. No more than a full point We're at 119 10 and we're trading at 120 10 right now In the 10 year and the core number as you put it point 3% on a monthly basis Kevin I think I saw that's the lowest number since September of last year What's your take on the core number and maybe where that might lead things you think this market and it's going to be an interesting Open in 10 minutes man for sure But what do you think about point three percent on a monthly you're always telling us watch the monthly right? Everybody knows the last 11 months. We're just looking at the last month coming in. What do you think about that point three percent? Yeah, and and that number Excluded energy which the energy numbers delivered. They were crazy. They were energy up 11 percent you Gaffling up 18.3 energy energy commodities up 18.1 fuel oil up 22.3 percent. No, that's not annual. That's a month. So but here's Tommy commodities Less food and energy down point four used cars and trucks down 3.8 percent So you are starting to see some peak and some remember this number was measured right during the peak of the Russia Ukraine War so you knew that energy prices were going to be volatile and up there But even energy has already come down from those peak levels So the question that traders gonna have to have to ask themselves today Are we seeing peak inflation? Did we see it? And if so if this tenure yield settles in here between 2.6 and 2.8 percent What does that do for the market going forward and so at least now the initial reaction market likes it Tommy Yeah, it's pretty interesting and at least gives gives Maybe some some hope that they were kind of reaching maybe a pendulum that we get a little bit of a swing When you hear that the core number rising the slowest since we've seen some September That of course gonna give you a little hope that maybe we're seeing kind of some of those trends shifting a little bit You talked about the used car prices down for the second month 3.8 percent I think I saw new new car prices edging up a little bit So maybe those kind of weird tendencies during the pandemic starting to sort themselves out maybe just in the tiniest bit But nonetheless man the market poof they try and Market Kevin as we say it's a leading indicator and it's trying to lead right now as in get ahead of the the trends in 204 right now in the Nasdaq 100 futures. It's gonna be an interesting open We jump to some of the banks Kevin. I wanted to ask you about so pretty interesting the swings We're getting in the 10-year. I think we saw a high yield overnight of 2.82 percent and just like that We're down to tenth of a percent back to 2.72 percent. We get some of the banks kicking things off this week I think it Wells Fargo Goldman Morgan Stanley City. What's your take on some of these banks, man? It's been a tough go around as we've seen yields coming up. Of course, you got inflationary Excuse me just recessionary talk out there. What's your take as we come into bank earnings this week kicking things off? Well, we're gonna trade JP Morgan on today's show as well as Delta Airlines and bedbath and beyond So we'll start looking at the bank as of today as they come out with earnings You know JP Morgan is first tomorrow morning Then you'll get Goldman City Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo on Thursday or on Wednesday So or yeah Thursday morning. Sorry. So there'll be a lot for us to talk about in those But you know, you're right Tommy the banks have had a rough run and why is that? Why have the banks have had a rough run? Well, even though yields are going up the yield curve is flattened, right? Where they and that affects some of their profit margins as well. So even though an Overall rising yield environment is good for the banks a flattened yield curve takes away Some of that luster now if this starts to unwind a little bit and yields settle in here at 2.7 But the yield curve starts to steepen. Well, that's better for the banks And they've made a rail a comeback here the last couple days, but they've been under pressure You know JP Morgan was as high as a hundred and seventy dollars is now a hundred and thirty three So it's not like these banks have gone straight up as rates have gone up You know, you got Bank of America that that was fifty dollars now It's thirty nine dollars. So, you know the banks coming out with earnings the next couple days should be Fairly interesting to and we're gonna go over them all the next couple days Tommy this one man I'm trying to wrap my head around it and you make some great points man And that is what's driving this market But when you think about where yields were Kevin back in just last year middle last year I mean JP Morgan, I got it up right now in a weekly just pulling on the thinkorswim platform last year You were chopping around between about 150 and 170 you started the year off at 130 almost where we're at right now at a time Would many have thought and I'm answering, you know, no You wouldn't have thought that as we have yields rising to 2.8 percent that you'd see JP Morgan back to 133 I just pulled it up. They got a dividend yield of about 3% at these prices I'm trying to wrap my head around that one man But as we know there's a lot going on in these equities. Well, Kevin man, we appreciate the time the education So we're talking JP Morgan, which is great because that's what I wanted to talk about myself But then yeah, as you talked about we have bedbath and beyond the Delta Airlines now real quick Kevin Delta I've been talking about for a while man that eventually And I'm not the only one travel stocks will catch a bid man really interesting though the same thing like JP Morgan You get the banks dealing with two different issues, right? You get the high yields They're gonna help them and then you get everything else going on that may hurt them The airlines you have so much demand going on for those travel stocks, but we have oil at like a hundred dollars right now What's kind of give us a little teaser for the Delta take coming up on fast market at 12 today? well, you know the US is going through a pretty Solid economic recovery right now and you're seeing it in the travel stocks and you know that's not only the airlines, but it's speedy and bookings and This whole sector is having a nice little comeback here I mean Delta got down to you know below $30 not very long going at the beginning of end of February beginning of March Now it's back up to 38 and probably gonna be up up this morning again So yeah, the airlines here's the thing Tommy the airlines are a volatile trade when things are normal when the economy is normal So they're even more volatile now. So yeah, it's gonna be It's you know, these are all it's gonna be a big market made up of a bunch of little individual stories Tommy That's that's the deal man for sure. Well, Kevin We appreciate you taking the time to talk with us man, and we look forward to the program at 12 today They say it's gonna be an interesting one, but today especially we got we got three and a half minutes till the opening bell Kevin and We'll be looking forward to your program at 12 noon today, man Thanks for having me on Tommy have a great day. Always a pleasure Kevin You have a great one as well folks check it out 12 noon Eastern time fast market your host Kevin Higgs Tom white You talk about experience folks check it out today. It's gonna be a great one We'll be right back for the opening bell folks. 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We got markets open and we got the S&P's right now giving back some of those games pre-market You're still up 27 points. That's about a six tenths percent pop to the upside Nasdaq 100 Europe 1.3 percent And that's after giving up about a hundred points from where we were pre-market Dow giving it back a little bit as well We're positive by 90 Russell positive by 1.25 percent sitting right at above 2000 we jumped to some of the commodities crude oil $99 and nine pennies eight pennies make it as we speak and we got the gold contract right now Catching a bid up twenty seven dollars in 1975. Let's jump around some of the fang stocks See how we're opening up Amazon shares up 1.5 percent right now Apple shares up a percent right now Microsoft up percent right now Google shares up percent. We'll finish it off with Tesla shares up 2% at 9 96 market give it back some of those gains gonna be interesting to see How important that core number is to this market as we move through the trading day right now We're only a minute and 15 seconds into that trading day. All right, let's jump around to what else we have going on We'll jump down to some of the stocks with action. I'm gonna kick it off with car max They were lower in the pre-market. We'll see how they're trading on the open They miss on earnings. They beat on revenue use cars down 3.8 percent Speaking of fast market folks, they did a great segment on fast market yesterday talking about car max I talked to Kevin every Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday folks They do the program Monday through Friday at 12 noon Eastern time They got a lot of great stuff on there beyond the hypothetical trade setups that they do in options I encourage you to check it out now car max It's gonna be interesting to see how they come out of this car use car deal Yeah, you're giving it back a little bit on the open down 5.2 percent right now We pull up a weekly and they were already dealing with some tough expectations You trade from 155 98 when used cars were just bonkers up there You're down to 98 bucks and you're basically back to where you were prior to COVID Which is saying a lot when you think about how much they may have benefited on The used car market accelerating higher and nonetheless you're back to 98 14 for car max market holding on to some of those gains We jump around to what else we have going on PG&E. They're they're higher They reached a deal in Northern, California having to deal with some of the fires Hewlett Packard enterprises, they were a little bit lower. They get a downgraded Morgan Stanley From to underway from equal weight. Let's see how they're trading HPE Yeah, down about 1.9 percent when the market's rocking higher crowd strike this one's been an interesting company Let's pull up crowd strike for a CRWD is their symbol Crowd strike pulls right back to the 50% of the entire run you had for COVID this morning Now that's a weekly we put it back on the daily today catching a little bit of a pop You're back to kind of this area that we've had a little bit of resistance in though crowd strike up 4.5 percent right now to 226 Albertsons are in 75 cents to share 11 above estimates revenue above estimates as well able to effectively deal with increased supply chain and Product costs, you know how they were? I'm guessing they raised prices folks ACI is their symbol And they're down 3.1 percent catching a little bit of a bid on the open there But yeah, that's a tough go around for Albertsons So they beat on earnings they beat on Revlon. I'm guessing the outlook is not as big as they would like Deutsche Bank so insider selling Deutsche Bank an undeclose shareholder sold 5% stake in both Deutsche Bank and rival German Lender Commerce Bank generating a total about 1.9 billion I would not be touching Deutsche Bank folks Let's put this thing on a daily you're at 1183 Yeah, I if you want to get some banks check out fast market at 12 They're gonna be talking about JP Morgan and boy if you're looking to get in some of these equity soaks now JP Morgan your data percent today We take out the weekly though I mean pretty remarkable as I talked about with Kevin considering where yields were back in the middle last year If you have greater aspirations than them what the market is looking for in terms of how it's pricing in a recession Might not be a bad deal. You're getting a 3% dividend these rates for JP Morgan I'll be interested to see what they have to say on fast market coming at 12 myself this market. It's waning a bit We got the S&Ps down excuse me up 25. Well, look at that sell-off folks. We just came back We were up at 44 62 you're off almost 30 points from where we were on that flash high Just about 40 minutes ago prior to 9 a.m. Eastern time this morning And what else we got Cisco gets a downgrade to sell from Neutral saying the networking equipment competitors juniper networks and Arista networks are poised to gain market share from Cisco Let's jump over these real quick Cisco CSCO. That's a five minute chart They catch a bid at the open you're only down about eight tenths percent juniper up eight tenths percent We take a look at a little bit of longer term chart. I mean yet check out that chart That's the one I wanted to get you this stock has been so strong man last year you open it about 23 you're trained at 35 Compare that to Cisco you opened at 44 you give back a lot of those gains early this year from 64 to 52 Cisco though what I will say you're in a kind of a nice area here That it's found support on a couple occasions if you're looking for a trade in Cisco Not sure I'd be getting in just yet You're down six tenths percent when you get the market trading higher But maybe get back to a slight area that you might be finding a bid for Cisco shares What else we got up here? Let's see Yeah, so let's jump into the car max a little bit more Felon early trading fourth quarter used vehicle sales misdests amidst soaring prices and anxiety over the economy keeping some customers away Declining consumer confidence and affordability 6.5% drop in the number of used cars it sold last quarter now You tie this together with the number. We just got right CPI data We had used car prices down 3.8 percent this month following a decrease the prior month As I said folks if you're getting rid of a used car go to an ASAP that would be my encouragement average price of a car rose 40 percent or $8,300 in the period ending February 28th compared with a year ago. That is bonkers There's no other way to put it that is a technical term bonkers folks It is think about it the average prices of a car rising 40 percent Just absolutely amazing Price to move use car prices are beginning to slip after surging the pandemic so check it out Right now we've had a little bit of a wane before but my estimate would be folks that there's an I mean we hear it all the time people go and buy a car and You hear that use car prices are almost more expensive than you new car prices. All right That's not how the world works folks eventually. They're gonna meander back to the mean navigate back to the mean And and you're seeing that play out in the use car prices and that was one of the areas hit hardest for the pandemic Right. We got chip shortages. You got a shortage of new vehicles And what I will say in general folks is that in normal times you get that pullback Going out and getting a vehicle. That's you know one two three years old. Usually it's a pretty good deal Right. Yeah, you avoid that sell-off of the price of a news of a new vehicle. It's still pretty new But that's not what's going on right now You got a vehicle that's anything that you're thinking about getting rid of that's used I would go out and get rid of it ASAP Especially if you're thinking about getting it to something new because those trends are going to get back to normal And you're seeing it already with used vehicles down 3.8% on a monthly basis folks monthly Okay, that is quite a drop when you put it on a monthly basis, but keep in mind They went up 40% over the last year Eventually that should be under back to you know, maybe it's going to settle up 10% Maybe it's going to settle up 15 maybe they're going to settle up 20% But they're probably not going to settle up 40% on the used market, which is where they're almost sitting right now All right, let's jump around to some of these markets as we come into the break right now We'll put it back on a 15 minute and you get the market sitting basically just where we're sitting As in you're just kind of settling right here at S&P's up 710% NASDAQ 100 up just shy of 1% right now And let's jump to the all-important notes and bonds So there's really no give back there Interesting that when you have the market giving back some of the gains You don't have the 10, you're giving back some of the gains man You're sitting at 120, 10 almost right at the spike we got Stay tuned folks, we get a few other equities to go over We'll be right back in 3 minutes You in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value Or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area To help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas To the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future Call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 Or email us at tiger at TFNN.com That's 727-329-8322 Call us today The technology around us is changing every day With so much happening, it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter, The Technology Insider Is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks As well as entry prices, target prices, and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week You can get The Technology Insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50 Sign up for David's newsletter, The Technology Insider, and get an insight look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money-back guarantee TFNN, Educating Investors Will the S&P 500 continue to climb? For bold trades on U.S. large-cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS Directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs Direction leveraged ETFs An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit Direction Investments.com A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks, we got the S&P's up 33 points right now, interesting action So S&P's catch a little bit of a bin the last few minutes, Nasdaq 100, not so much, no green bars there They're still up 1% though in the Nasdaq 100 Now I'm going to jump over real quick to the Bloomberg article I've got pulled up here The headline is Treasure Yield Surge to Threaten Bull Run's Last Resistance Line I said to myself, what resistance line are they talking about? You pull it up, interesting action here So this goes back to talk about a long term chart, man This is the yield on the tenure Okay, and yeah, that is quite an acceleration to a trend line I would guess we're going to go through that trend line folks Now our man Kevin Hinks, he has talked about it Might not be just yet, okay We might get quite a pause when you look at this acceleration that we've had recently But I imagine we're going higher folks That is my estimate, okay You've got the tenure at pretty low levels when you've got still inflationary numbers At very lofty levels to put it lightly Now here's what I'll do, I jumped over to some of the action on just the price action Now the tenure for me, when I put it on a max Only goes back to about 2002, 2003 for whatever reason on a continuous basis But if you take a look at the 30 year, just out of curiosity Look where we are Interesting action in terms of where we are folks, that's going back to 1999 Now this chart they had up here goes back to the 80s, the 90s Probably even the 70s back here Maybe that's 1980 back here But again, we're technicians, a lot of us And that's kind of pretty important area when you look at that trend line going back to 19 No, back to the year, yeah, December of 1999 You had the 30 year with price action of 90 You're sitting at 142 right now Now here's what I'll say folks, okay Now this article which is interesting, it talks about here If you're close to retirement And you got your money in Treasuries or Any type of fixed income like they're talking about here Total returns in treasuries this year folks Slumped 8%, that's just as of now Worst annual decline since 1973 I've been talking about it for a while folks Okay, the 60-40 split of portfolio diversification Has not gone through a period that we may have right now for some time And that's putting it lightly And when you get this type of a rise in yields You get a destruction in price Now yes, if you are holding things through expiration Okay, you're getting the yield you want But that's not off what happens folks So many people will get into a treasury fund Or something like that They'll think that's the fixed income part of their portfolio that's protected And little do they know that you're down 8% in that portion of your portfolio this year So be careful on that one in a big way But interesting action, when you look at where we are In terms of the yield on the 10-year Spiking up to that trend line Now in order to our man, Bud Rolfs folks When you're talking about channels Okay, now this, you could call this a channel You could call it a channel that got a little bit out of whack on the downside Okay, but when you break out of a channel The real key is you want to see a break out of that channel You want to see it come back and test that trend line And then trade higher, if that happens Watch out folks, and it's totally possible The data is going to be a big part That's going to drive the Fed And we are really going to get some interesting action over the next three or six months The market almost just breathing a sigh of relief I would say on this number In terms of not getting an expectation A beat versus expectation Core number, 0.3% And again, the expectation on the core number on a monthly basis was 0.5% The reason why this is especially important Is because that's a big difference on a monthly basis Percentage-wise, now percentages on very small numbers Are totally deceiving, okay But, you know, 0.3% off of 0.5 That's a 60% number, right 0.3% is only a 60% rise Of the 0.5% they were expecting If you ever push that onto an annual basis On a monthly basis, if prices are rising 0.5% That's a 6% number that you'll get on a year If you've got 12 months at 0.5% You're going to have a 6% rise on a yearly basis If you don't compound I know there'd probably be some compounding there If you're going up every month But for simple math, let's not compound it 0.5% is 6% Wow, we came in at 0.3% That's only 3.6% folks So on a monthly basis, core numbers are going up 3.6% right now If you carry it out 12 months The market was looking for a number that was going to push it at almost 6% There's where you see that the trend can really shift Where we are, where we're going And what the market's looking at I talked about it on my newsletter yesterday, folks Let me see if I can pull it up real quick I think I had it up, did I? Yeah, just here Let me just say, because this is something I would keep in mind Because this is going to be a trend that is going to continue, folks Next month's CPI data, when we get it Alright, this is a note I put out Two subscribers yesterday One I want to focus on, alright We get the CPI at 830, expectation is 8.4% Here's the part I want to focus on I will be more interested in the core number Which takes out food and energy as the energy component Will likely skew the numbers dramatically to the upside And the market may dismiss amiss If it has to do with oil, the core numbers expect to derive 6.6% Which is still amazing Even without those two components But I'm more interested in the core number Guess what, the market's more interested in that number too This morning, folks, and that is going to continue In a big way I also said JP Morgan kicks it off on Wednesday As our man Kevin Hinks was talking about Now, JP Morgan catching a little bit of a bid On the open, check that out You're up 6.10% ahead of their number You jump over to the analyze tab You're looking at a $5 move coming into their earnings That's a pretty decent move from the bank earnings They don't normally move too dramatic When you talk about the bank earnings In terms of what they're doing You do get a dividend yield of 3% with this company I do not have any JP Morgan, folks But I'm looking at it And I would encourage you to take a look at it too Because it would make sense in my opinion To be a little bit diversified to some of the banks At this price level, okay When banks are pushing 173 When they're pushing 170 A little bit harder to rationalize But when you're pushing 134 You got a 3% dividend yield You got inflation out of control And you have yields on the rise It might help you wane some of the volatility Going on in this market And as I speak, the market's catching a bid The second time this morning As we now have the S&Ps up 45 points Let's put it back to a 5 minute chart And we're going to be pushing the highs We have this market, man, watch out This is going to be an interesting one, folks Not a lot of days like today We're very fortunate with the market we have As traders right now Look at the Dow Look just what happened when the Dow So much for a sell-off These are 5 minute charts, folks The Dow just traded, look at this Just from where we were at 9 in the morning You trade down 150 points And then the market opens and we trade Up 200 points in the Dow S&Ps From 44.60 to almost 44.30 Back to 44.53 Let's jump around to some of those Dow stocks Walmart shares Up about 4.10% right now McDonald's up about 2.10% right now Everything's going to be in the green Mostly in this market And look at the Russell Up 2% right now Crude nearing $100 yet again And gold Giving back some of those gains Up $20 right now for the gold Contract at 1968 Alright, what else we got pulled up here to discuss Let me take a look What are we talking about? Yeah, airports We got a couple We're going to take a break, folks We're going to talk about Apple They're going to be talking about their watch 2024 For blood pressure But we're also going to be talking about airports This is the interesting one So airports are clogged with queues As travel, rebounds, strains, resources For shortages I mean, I talked about Kevin They're going to be talking about Delta Airlines Delta with their earnings this week as well We'll take a look at some of those travel stocks Delta up 6.10% right now Quite the charge higher yesterday As you had travel stocks rockin' higher Boy, you look at this stock, right? 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Educating investors Brought to you by Think or Swim For more information, just click The Think or Swim banner on the front page Of TFNN.com Welcome back folks And uh boy, don't sleep on these markets For a moment man, S&Ps now up 1.23% We get an acceleration right out of the gate Folks, you accelerate on the CPI data We pull back from about 9-30 In the markets, take it and run with it We're up about 30 points just from where you are On the opening bell folks And you're talking about the Nasdaq 100 Now right back to basically the highest pre-market 14,250, you're up 1.8% Dow up a percent as well And the Russell up 2.4% Folks, the Russell, if you look where we were Negative territory pre-market You were negative by 34 points Going into the pre-market, you're positive Um, no, excuse me, you were under 2,000 By 34 points, you're now above it by 23 That's talking about what? 57 points that we've claimed That's about a 3% pop folks from where you were Just at about 4 AM in the Russell 2,000 Yeah, that TNA man dancing Dancing in a big way Alright, let's jump on to some of those travel stocks Delta up about 8-10% right now Now putting things on a little bit of a longer term basis As I talked about Interesting action on Delta gets down Right to that 618 Kevin talked about it You actually got a 29 handle on Delta shares Back at that low We're back to about 38 right now We jumped to some of the other airlines American gets all the way to the 786 Of where it was You jumped to United shares Almost gives it all back They get 100% for United shares Now we jumped domestically real quick JetBlue, below the 618 man This one is a head scratcher in a big way Now oil prices folks That's what a big part of this is It's oil prices, it's wages Right, it's cost of doing business For these airlines Even if they have huge Demand to the upside And then we jumped to Conville though Okay, we jumped to some of the cruise ships Now just recently Forget what day it was I think it was sometime last week Maybe it was one of Maybe it was couple days ago They came out Carnival said they are the most bookings ever In a weekly period From the end of March To the beginning of April But all I'll say is Keep your eye on the trends folks We got quite a downtrend channel on Carnival That's a weekly basis We put it back to a daily real quick As we wrap things up And yeah I would look for this thing To break out of there Breaks out of there Test that channel line Maybe we're getting back into it Boeing's another one to take a look at Look where Boeing is Right near that bottom of that channel line I've been looking at Boeing as well Not a bad entry If you're thinking about it Boeing A little bit of woes But up 1.1% Gonna be an interesting one folks Stay tuned and don't forget I wanted to talk about it Basil Chapman's coming up But here's a live webinar tomorrow folks Go sign up for it So you can access it Evergrade Tuesday