 All right, Merhaba. So this is a great pleasure to be here. It's truly interesting to see, it's Chalk Güzelle, so to speak, to see all of you here talking about the future. Thanks very much for the invitation to Ufuk Tarhan. The name is the story, the horizon. Thanks very much to the university for hosting this event. It's really a great pleasure to be here. I've been to Turkey many times in the past. The first time when I was 19, I spent six weeks in Ceshmer, which that was a long time ago. You know, I'm obviously a little bit older now, but it's always a great pleasure to be here and to see what's happening in Turkey. So first of all, I want to encourage you. I think in going forward from today, every day that you spend at work or whatever else you're doing, 5% of that day should be a future day. 5% of your time should be spent about thinking about the future. You know, one of my clients is Google and they have a rule that 10% of your time has to be spent on new projects. And if you don't spend 10% of your time on things that have nothing to do with your work, you get fired. Many of the companies that I work with, you spend 5% of your time on things that are not for work, you get fired. So this is something to think about. Spend some time every day talking, thinking about the future and what's coming up. You know, in my work we have a motto, my company is called the Futures Agency, we're in Switzerland. We have a very simple motto and it wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark. And this is so true for so many of our clients, is that they're currently doing well, they're not doing bad, but five years into the future, it's very likely that half of their business will come from things that don't even exist today. So I have two kids, you probably have kids, some of you, when I look at my kids, I can safely say that my younger son is probably going to have a job that is not even invented yet. And when you think about this, you have to think about the future in a different way, you have to think about it in a way like, you know, this drawing that I use, this illustration, I'll bring it down a very complex environment to a simple point. That's kind of what I do in my foresight. Also, I have a method of doing this by, as the movie Back from the Future says, I try to go into the future and come back, you know, five years into the future and then decide what that means for you today. For example, when I worked for the music business, I used to be a musician and producer. When I worked in the music business, in digital music, I talked to the music companies about the internet, and I said, basically, you cannot keep people from downloading without paying because, you know, that's the internet, that's what computers do, they make copies. So you have to look into the future and think about how you make money with a new model, with a new system, a new logic, because technology is interrupting us, it's disrupting our environment. I mean, think about this, if you're a hotel, TripAdvisor can put the fear of God into you, what people write about you on TripAdvisor and reviews. I mean, this is empowerment of the users. So it's very important to look at the future and say what's going to happen in five years, and then come back to today, and not go from today into the future, because it's always gonna be the same thing you're already doing. There's a very important Chinese saying that says, if you want to know about the future, ask your children. And why is that so true? It's because children don't have to go and think about how to fulfill a role and to be an executive or how to monetize, you know, to make money, they don't think about this, they play. So we need to spend more time playing, because if we don't do this, we don't discover what the future is. This is a very important point before I get going. I'm getting excited, so I'm taking my jacket off. I hope you don't mind, I'll stop there. But basically, the most important point I want to make as part of my conversation is that we're today living in a world to where machines and technology is creating a handshake for us every single day. It's getting deeper every minute. If you have seen the movie Her, the Spike Jones movie, you fall in love with the operating system, that is not far-fetched. I mean, many kids are in love with their mobile devices. It's just one step further. So every day, we have this overlap of what machines do and what we do, and the future has tremendous potential there if we're looking at this overlap. It's our number one opportunity and our challenge. Because one thing we don't want is that we have to become more like a machine so we can live in a world of machines. And there is a significant danger for that, obviously, which I'll show you shortly. But if you're looking at things like environment, there are estimations saying that if we use connected technology, sensor networks, connected traffic lights, connected energy to the grid, we can save 40% of the entire environmental costs by using smart technology, as the gentleman from BSH was saying. I mean, clearly, this is tremendous possibility. At the same time, doctors are now having access to a giant database of cancer cases when they're at the bad side of the patient. Think about the changes that makes for their role. As students can learn things online, anything. And you can learn anything online. You don't have a degree, but you'll get a job in an internet company because they prefer you over people with a degree, at least for now. And then we have digital money. I mean, imagine what this is going to do to the banks and insurance companies. I mean, Bitcoin, I don't know if it's gonna be Bitcoin or not, probably not. But digital money is a certainty. In 10 years, we will not be carrying cash, except if we're worried about privacy. So there's a huge amount of opportunities here. And just as an example, you know what's happening today because all of our data is going on to the internet. Everything we do, everywhere we are, everywhere we move, everything we share, everything we like. There's a saying in America says, Google knows you better than your husband or wife. And it's true, think about this for a second, right? Because Google, if you use Google for seven years and you've been logged in, you know, like a good citizen of Google, right? Then they know everything. You know, all your fungus nails and whatever problems you have, right? So now we're looking at this digital universe and we're looking at a global shift from physical to digital. We're looking at this global shift because now all of a sudden, everything that we're looking at is digitized. So as an example, security, 50% of all military and defense budget in the future will be based on digital problems, yeah? Digital wars, digital security. So that's gonna change our entire economy, how we do this. Now we can already hack into medical devices. You have a pacemaker, somebody can find a way to get inside of your machine. You have a self-driving car, like Google. Imagine if somebody can break into that car. Once we have 20 million of these cars, they can break into your car and lock you in there for the rest of the year, right? Or drive you against the tree. So a lot of things will change because of our digital environment. And this is also because we have these revolutions and interfaces. I mean, when I started using computers, you have to type, and then you have to figure out how to use it. Today, you know, I gave my mother an iPad. She's 77. For her, the iPad is the television, right? She doesn't know there's a difference. She says, I'm watching television, but she means the iPad, right? Because she can just touch it and it goes, right? So the future means we can speak to our computers. We won't be typing in a few years, except for certain purposes. We'll just speak. We'll gesture. We have holograms. We have headsets. It is already possible for a person that's completely paralyzed, ecratriplegic, to walk again using brainwave computing interfaces with a skeleton, an external skeleton. It takes three years and a million euros, but it's possible. So a lot of these things sound like science fiction. You know, when you look at technology and you're saying, okay, these people are using devices to do all these things, right? They sound like science fiction, but think about this for a second. If you're watching a science fiction movie like Blade Runner, you know, this means I'm very old because Blade Runner is old. Minority Report, Oblivion. Of course, AI and her. Many of the scenes from these movies are reality today. It's mind-broken to see how quickly they change. A lot of these things will be just as real as SMS in 10 years. It's a scary thought when you're not 15. So back to the movies, you know, years ago, Star Trek had a device called the Tri-Coder. This was in the 70s, I think, right? This device will analyze your blood and everything and actually give an opinion what's wrong with you and also fixed you in the process, right? Well, now the Tri-Coder challenge, part of the XPRIZE, is giving this guy, Corey Andrakha, is giving this guy $23 million to invent the Tri-Coder. And the Tri-Coder pokes your finger with blood. You can cough into it. You can touch it. You can measure your pulse. And it gives you in 14 minutes a better diagnosis in a team of 10 doctors, allegedly. Now, if you're a doctor, you wouldn't necessarily be so happy about this comparison. And I'm not so sure it actually works, right? But imagine what this does if it hits the market in a few years. Every old person that cannot easily go to the hospital, you can send your grandmother this device for 200 euros and you can always make sure she's okay. And that's tremendous, but at the same time, maybe it's not a human, right? It's a machine. It doesn't do the same thing. So it has good side effects and also bad side effects, but we're experiencing an age of exponential computing power. You know, I'm not a technologist. I studied comparative religion, theology, Greek, Hebrew, and music, you know, so I'm not a tech guy. But I can tell you that technology is absolutely exploding in computing power. The power that we have in our mobile phone today is more than the entire array, all of the weight arrays of NASA and the Pentagon put together just 15 years ago. Mind boggling. So when you're looking at all the things that happen like gene, genomic analysis, right? People growing older, we are actually, all of us are gaining eight hours of lifespan every single day in the West. We're getting eight hours older just because of advance of technology. Many of our children will live to be a hundred as a standard, right? Can you imagine this? What that will do to everything, our social system, everything, social media. So for example, what's happening with medicine, you know, $7.2 trillion pharma business could be wiped out by the fact that we're gonna be able to fix diseases before they occur. A personalized medicine. How far away is that? 10, 15, 20 years? So we're looking at fundamental changes in how we do things. And as Chem was saying earlier in his speech, the shift from ego to ego, I'll talk more about that as well. So now we have last week in Barcelona, this week in Barcelona is the mobile summit. This device is a mobile phone by Firefox, the browser company. It will cost $25, $25 smartphone. In India, we have a tablet called Aakash selling for $28, a tablet, right? Sold already 35 million copies. Every person in the world, every person, literally every person that is connected, we're talking about five billion people in less than five years, will be traveling with a smart device. Think about a second what that means for business, for politics, for understanding stuff, for education, for payments, for all of us. 80% of that traffic being mobile. I mean, you guys are WhatsApp users, right? I mean, I don't have to ask everybody as a WhatsApp user, right? If you don't know what that is, then maybe you're not a user. But WhatsApp allows you to make, to send free messages over the internet, right? Over data, 480 million users. Facebook purchased WhatsApp for more than a purchase price than Sony Corporation. No revenues, almost no revenues WhatsApp has, right? For $43 per user. So, you know what's gonna happen next with this disruption? If you're in the telecom business, you're not happy. Anybody here in the telecom business? You know what happens here is that you don't use SMS anymore. You know how much money the telco's making with SMS every single day? Take a wild guess, right? 300 million dollars a day, every single day. And that money is leaving. Because this people can do this now. So now we have things like automatic translation. Also launched at the Mobile Summit this week where you can call somebody and actually have a conversation with people in 24 languages in real time. I can call somebody in Chinese and speak in German that comes out in Chinese in real time. I mean, this is a future that probably makes you think if you're a parent, you know, if your kids are ever going to learn languages. Why would you do that? I mean, it's different, but definitely a question. So I can safely summarize for you as, you know, if you hadn't known yet, business as usual is dead or dying, okay? If you work in a company where you can do business as usual, congratulations continue, right? But that will be the exception. First, the music companies, the movie companies, the publishers, the telecoms, the banks, the mining companies, the transportation companies, the power companies, and so on. It just goes on in this succession because of technology. So what we have to do now in the future, or today, starting today, is to reinvent what we do and how we do this in an entirely different way. And I think that's going to be done in such a way where we are in this devil's cycle of doing business in the same old way where we have to find a way out of this. Because yes, I would grant you, in many ways it's still working just fine. But you can agree that pretty much in the future, 98% of our businesses will not work fine in the same way they did today because the consumer is changing and the world is changing and at very fast pace. So a few days ago, I got into a Twitter fight with Turkish Airlines. I'm sure there's lots of reasons to tweet about Turkish Airlines, but I will not get into this. However, it has been a hobby of mine to discuss things on Twitter just because I want to see how people react. So Turkish Airlines has taken my tweet and I've received several phone calls and emails about this topic. This would have been impossible. Think about that five years ago. To get anybody to pay attention to it, which is, you know, so what, you know, go away, right? Now everything is in the public. You can't possibly avoid this. You want to grow, then they're gonna take up this concept and do something with it. And same goes for what has been referred to as Lyconomics. There's a great book written by a friend of mine, Rohit Bhagava called Lyconomics. You should read it because it's talking about how important it is for your customers to like you. To like you even if you don't fix the problem. This is the interesting part. Dell has 47 people working on Twitter to take complaints about Dell and less than 1% of those complaints are being fixed. But 95% of the customers think that because Dell does this, it's a great achievement, you know, it's a public discussion about how bad they are. So that's Lyconomics is crucial. And now we're entering into a world of finding information, you know, that Google is in the middle of transforming themselves into an artificial intelligence company. It's no longer about searching the web, it's about searching us. Google is searching us. We are the content of Google and of Facebook. Because we create the metadata and all the stuff that really matters. So what Google is doing now is to say, okay, in the future, how will we search? We're not going to actually type stuff in. We're going to hold our mobile device over the food and find out what's in it. That's hard to do, but people working on that. We're going to find augmented information. We're going to look at books like this. Search becomes seeing, feeling, hearing, touching and thinking. This is only a few years away. So think about what that does for just about everything, you know, that sort of giant, you know, brain in the sky. In fact, Google calls this the global brain. They have a global brain project. It's pretty amazing when you're thinking about the logo of this event, you know, being a brain. And then we have the Internet of Things. Many of you may not know what this is, but the Internet of Things is essentially the concept that whatever we are doing as humans is now happening between machines. Here you see the connected traffic light. This light was $45,000. Four years ago, it's 3,750 now. And this traffic light and street light connects you and figures out who you are when you're walking by. It provides internet access. It measures the air quality. It sees how many people are walking by at what time, so it can regulate traffic. It does all of these things that makes it smart. I mean, apart from the fact that this is an extremely powerful technology, again, we could save 40% of energy cost if everything was connected. And Cisco says we're going to have 75 billion things connected. Now our wristwatches, our glasses, our suits, our traffic lights, our sensor networks, everything. Apart from that, it's also a scary thing. So what happens to our personal data? What happens to our privacy? If the trash can knows that I've walked by. Big question. Now you have dogs with tags. You lose your dog, you can find them. And now you have babies with tags. I don't know how you'd lose a baby, but some people manage. The thought of this, now you even have diapers that Twitter when they are wet. Can you imagine? It's called Tweet P. If you wanna see something funny, take a look. 75 billion connected devices. So everything connected, everything intelligent, real-time, everything. Now I can tell you, this is a nightmare or a nirvana, I don't know which one. It's obviously both. I mean, if you're a tech company or a mobile company or a marketer, you would say, oh, this is fantastic. I can make lots of money with this. But there's many side effects that we have to think about and want to flag some of those. So it's a question of balance. Now technology is a funny thing because technology does not allow us to say, no, we're either off the grid or on the grid, like the matrix, red pill, blue pill. That's not possible because the reality is if you're engaging in business or in anything, you cannot be off the internet, right? You can't be off the grid, it's not possible. You can move to the mountains of Switzerland where I live and take care of cows, or you can move to the Amish country in America. And maybe then you can be off the grid. So it's really a question of balance. We cannot afford to use technology that does harm to us because it's becoming part just like air or water. The internet has become like air. So bottom line is, I think, for some of these issues in the digital world, which is without any doubt coming upon us at mind-boggling fast speed. The internet is becoming a place to where all these things are becoming completely obvious. We have to be connected, we have to be human-centric, we have to be sustainable, I'll talk more about that in a second, and interdependent. If you asked companies 20 years ago about what their primary strategy was, was to say we want to be independent so we can rule in our area, like Microsoft did, we can make lots of money and keep it for ourselves. Today if you ask companies what do they want to do? They say we want to be an important player in the ecosystem. We want to be indispensable. But they know that they cannot actually own the ecosystem. The only company that owns their ecosystem is Apple. That's very an interesting side effect. You cannot be completely independent in the world that's completely dependent. And that goes for energy, that goes for everything that we're thinking about. And then there's these things, the internet is enabling all of us to become intelligent and devices to become more resilient, learning things, and it's forcing us to be open and exponential. Now there's nothing you can do about this. You can either say, okay, I throw this all away and I don't become part of it, or you just do what happens. This is something that we see in general terms, as Chim was saying earlier, everything is moving on this trend from ego to eco, to the connected world, everything. Because in the connected world, we can solve very large problems. We can solve hunger, terrorism, energy, food. But in the connected world, you can't live in a connected world and say, you know, whatever happens here, I get 95% of it. That will clearly not work. And that was the oil companies, for example, or the record labels who did this. But that is ending. So this is really a very, very big shift that we're seeing. So back to the key theme here, human machine futures. How much of us is already connecting to machines? How much are we outsourcing our brains? Now if you sit at the bar with a bunch of guys, 10 years ago we sit around, we talk about football or women or whatever, right? Whatever, right? You know what we do today at the bar? We're looking at what kind of apps we have on the mobile phone, right? It's sad, isn't it? Because technology has taken over to such a point, but it's so important to have this, huh? So what is going to happen here? I think if you're looking at products like Google Now that allows you to have Google anticipate your next move. If you want to try Google Now, you can try it on any phone. It's part of the Google app, but you should give it a try because it reads all your information and it tells you what's happening next for you. So when you're landing in Istanbul, it says there's a traffic jam, you should call Jim and tell him you're half an hour late, do you want me to leave a message? It runs the life for you, it runs your life. And of course, that's what technology companies want. That's what Amazon, eBay, and Yahoo, and Google, they want to run this for us. They want us to be the OS, right? They want us to feed this OS. They want us to outsource the brain. And in many ways, it's convenient, right? So I'm outsourcing my brain to the Kindle, you know, or e-book reader. So now I have 250 books in my Kindle, I can't take them with me on the airplane, it's better for me. But what happens if it doesn't work? I have nothing to read. So there's a dependency that happens here. And what happens with this, you know, you heard about this term called big data. It's very fashionable this year. It's more fashionable than social media, which is another paragon there. But what's happening with data is that we're now thinking about, look at this curve, you know, how much data are we generating? Every single person in this room, you're broadcasting where you are, what you like, where you've gone to, what kind of comments you're leaving, how you're connecting with people on Facebook, it's all there. And there's lots of good things about that, right? But what happens here is that data is becoming more powerful than oil. Now I'm going to Dubai tonight to speak at a telecom conference, right? Tell that to people in the Middle East that data is more important than oil. This is, of course, what they want to know about, how they're going to get beyond the oil, right? So what happens is lots of studies saying, you know, we're looking at a future where the information business and the data business will make more than $10 trillion a year, which is more than all of the fossil fuel companies combined. So data is truly the new oil. And that really changes our position. So here's an important question there. In this future, you know, the all-seeing eyes, so to speak, because we're always connected and we're always doing things there, right? What are we going to feel about this, right? Everything can be recorded, saved and searched. Everything is being recorded. I mean, just imagine the reality of a world that actually has Google Glass, which you may be familiar with, you know, that is a mobile phone sitting on top of your nose with a glasses-like setup. Everything recorded, every store you go to. So this is an important balancing act that we'll have to think about. Because this is the reality of the future that we're going into. The power of technology is exploding exponentially, it becoming cheaper every single day to the point to where technology is like air. It's probably better than air, because the air will be bad. But technology increases, and our privacy and anonymity completely goes away as a consequence. This is not something we would want. Because a world where we can't be anonymous is no longer actually a human world, in my view, right? This is very important to keep in mind, an important balancing act for the future. And then, of course, you know, I'm sure some of you feel the same way, offline is the new luxury. Not to connect, you're saying, gosh, I can just be in the moment. This is the new thing, it's a huge trend. Because guess what? It's not human to be constantly sucking at the end of a data pipe. Because, you know, our brain cannot take in all our information. We have to think about what that means for human applications. If you're in the tech business, you have to transcend technology. You have to use technology and then go beyond it. Technology, as its own purpose, is useless to us as humans. It serves itself. It's a self-perpetuating machine. So, Buick has an initiative called In the Moment, a car company sponsoring initiative to be in the moment. Suggestion to you, you know, every week for one day, or every two weeks, I do it every two weeks, you know, be in the moment, don't connect. Figure out what happens there. Do you have anything left to say to your children? Just kidding. So, offline is a luxury that we shall cultivate. Here's a short video clip that shows the current situation. Social media is great. It connects you to the world, and the people you love. You can chat with your family, or share a meal with friends, and watch cute little cats do unbelievable things. Look, she sticks her head out of the box. But there are times when social media can get in the way of the real world. Remember that? It's the thing that happens when you run out of battery. That's why we've developed the Social Media Guard. It takes the social out of media, and puts it back into your life. Let's see how it works. This which is that, it's a fortunate accident that Coke is actually a sponsor of this conference. But there is a world outside of this, and I didn't get to actually read this, but technology has no ethics. This is important to remember. Technology is about technology. And that's not a confusing issue. We can't fix social problems, or political problems, or whatever problems with technology. Technology does not provide that. By the way, I'm taking questions on Twitter. So if you want to ask a question, just use the hashtag here. This hashtag, and ask me a question, but not in Turkish, please, but in English. And I will take questions through Twitter, as well as in real life. You can actually talk to me as well. So Sophocles, my good friend, has a great quote that says, nothing vast enters the life of mortals without a curse. That's so true. Now, when we think about technology today, we feel very empowered, we feel very comfortable with it, but there's a curse. There's always a curse when there's a curse. It's like nuclear power. No matter how you agree whether we should have nuclear power or not, that's a different topic. It does solve a problem, but it has a gigantic curse. So what do we do? We can't just say no to everything that has a curse. We have to figure out a compromise, a compromise, a balance. Take this, for example, face recognition. Face recognition is widely used around the world for all different applications. And here's a short clip and I'll show you how that works. On every camera, simultaneously, facial characteristics become biometric templates. Tube. But the bottom line is this, this could be quite helpful for law enforcement and for criminals and so on, but imagine if you do this in a store, which stores want to do now. They want to be able to identify us when we walk into a store to figure out that I'm a dear customer and send an alert to everyone to come running to me. Is that a good thing or bad? Is that a curse or is it a blessing? That's obviously both. But that doesn't mean we should outlaw technology. We have to have a balance for this. So technology is really changing how we do things. This is one of my previous jobs. I'm in the middle there. Just kidding. How we use to build skyscrapers. Now in the future, we're going to have a combination of people building those skyscrapers. We have little tiny robots coming along. That's already happening. So it used to take 400 people to build an iPad. Now it takes 33 people to build an iPad. But the future is it takes zero people to build the iPad. Because at a certain point technology can do that. So there are studies saying that basically, depending on where you look, between 30 and 40% of all jobs could be done by automation in the next 25 years. For example, a taxi driver probably won't happen in Istanbul at some time. But if you're a taxi driver in Las Vegas, we're going to have self-driving cars. Taxi drivers are not a good job. Translators? Hello guys up there. Translator? Machines can probably do that pretty well. Not entirely perfectly, but well enough to really cut into your activities. Or bookkeeping. 50 million bookkeepers. We're done away by software. A company called Zero in New Zealand. So what does that mean for us in the future? Where do we go? So what will it mean to be human in this world of technology? This is a key question. I think I have a bit of an answer, but I leave that to you to investigate as well. What does it mean to be human? And my thing that I want to suggest to you is that to be human doesn't mean we're going to beat computers. We're going to be better than machines. Yeah? We have tried being better machines. You're faster calculating, faster return, you know, faster machines. It doesn't work. We have to be better humans in the future not beat the machines. I'll give you a short clip here from Star Trek which illuminates the point. It intrigues me. It's Picard. In what manner, sir? Remarkably analytical and dispassionate I understand why my father chose to mind-meld with him. There's an almost Vulcan quality to the man. Interesting. I had not considered that. And Captain Picard has been a role model in my quest to be more human. More human? Yes, Ambassador. Fascinating. You have an efficient intellect, superior physical skills, no emotional impediments to the Vulcans who aspire all their lives to achieve what you've been given by design. You are half-human. Yes. Yet you have chosen a Vulcan way of life. In effect, you have abandoned what I have sought all my life. So it's interesting I've seen from quite some time ago that no emotional impediments. It is in fact those emotional impediments that are our future because they're not copied by machines. It is in fact all of these things that we can do because we are human that will make us valuable in the future. Otherwise, we can greed the robot revolution because they can calculate quicker and be quicker. If you're looking at this graph, this is a very important graph it's a simulation from Lake Michigan how long does it take to fill up the lake? It shows exponentiality at work. Basically, what we see here is it takes forever to get going in evolution of things, to grow quickly. But once it grows a little bit, as you can see here, in a very short time it goes boom because it's exponential. It grows exponentially. If you don't think that machines can be as smart as this, it's just a question of reaching the right takeoff point, the exponential point. And there is a great saying by Ernest Hemingway it says, how does a person go broke gradually then suddenly? And this is so true for technology. When does technology take off? Well, it takes a long time but when it takes off, it takes cover. And that's what we're seeing all around us. That's what we're seeing with printing organs, that's what we're seeing with all these things like nanotechnology and neuroscience and all these things that we're looking at that are gradual but then suddenly. And we have to think about what that means for us. I'll skip this one because I don't want to play too many videos for you. But simulating the human brain essentially looks like this, right? Trying to simulate the human brain today we're at this point to where if you ask the computer if you say to the computer after the holidays the scale becomes my enemy. Which means you ate too much in the holidays. It does happen occasionally. The computer will not know what to make out of this. No computer in the world will understand this statement today. How long will it take for that to change? Quite some time. It's about semantics, right? And understanding the stuff that's in between the lines. So one thing that's happening I think that's really quite interesting in many ways is that we're approaching a world that is omniscience. Knowing everything. Because today the world is not just Wikipedia but you can tell already there's applications like Google and others that will go out and fetch information for you and deliver it to you in real time. And this is the future of information technology. We don't search. We just have things delivered to us. So omniscience is within reach. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Well I would say it's pretty dangerous to be ignorant but it can be just as dangerous to be omniscient. Both things are probably true. So what do we do about this? What do we do about a world like this? This down here is a project called the Oculus Rift. Which is a virtual reality glass. Glasses that you wear to virtually do things. Anything from flying into space to solving complex problems to operating on a patient to everything. To live in a parallel reality. The bottom line is this. We're living in a world of exponentiality and the stuff that you see in her and other movies about artificial intelligence we're only right now at the lowest point of that pivot curve. And there's many good things about this for example I'll be able to figure out if I'm in the advertising business I'll be able to figure out much more accurately how to reach people. And if I'm in the energy business I'm much more efficient with distributing energy. There's many good things about artificial intelligence. So then we have to figure out what is this future in this space where we're connected to this network and how will that interface look like. And Google is already suggesting to us a world of augmented humanity. In fact what Google is doing is outsourcing our brain to their servers. So I have my Google Plus that's all my relationships on Google Plus. I have my documents all on the server I got my email which is there running for me I got my search history and pretty soon I get it to two say it's Google or owned by Google it's one of my clients so I can beat them a little bit. Augmented humanity is coming what do we do about this? I talked about the movie here I'll show you a short clip from this but basically we are really starting to have relationships with our technologies and we should think about what that means. How far do we take this? How far do we take this? Good morning Theodore. You have a meeting in five minutes. You want to try getting out of bed? You're too funny. Theodore, I saw in your emails that you've gone through a breakup recently. You're kind of nosy. Am I? You'll get used to it. A chance to watch it you should do so. Deep learning in the future is now what's called deep learning. Deep learning means computers can actually learn what happens in between the lines. They can understand the semantics. They can use massive computational power to translate stuff in real time and to do things we previously considered human. Deep learning is what we're going to see in many parts of our society. We have to think about what that means for us in the future. If we look at automation, computerization and the robot that makes you coffee. This is the first bar in the world where a robot will mix a drink for you. I don't think he'll make very good margaritas, but maybe. Here's a computer, a robot that prints in your handwriting. I mean, this machine actually analyzes your handwriting and acts like it's you to write real-life letters. We're already at that point. Looking at the future, there's many interesting angles about this. A total redefinition of work and jobs. I would submit to you that we're extremely lucky to be at this point. It is threatening to think about a job that you have that involves any sort of repetition. These jobs will be eliminated by machines to a large degree. But at the same time, think about how that freezes up for other things. Of course, not every cab driver can be a graphic designer. Because, of course, they lack on their skills, so it has great impact on education. Kevin Kelly has come up with this graph saying that existing jobs will change and new jobs will come up. My colleague Thomas Fryer says 60% of the best jobs in the next 10 years haven't even been invented yet. So what is our role? Is our role to hold on to the old jobs and fortify them against technology? I don't think so. Our role is to invent those new jobs. There are jobs that are going to happen. I mean, jobs that don't even exist. Studies, again, if you want to read the Oxford study just download the PDF. They're saying that about half of our jobs in 20 years could go away with technology revolution. What are you going to tell your kids? What to do? How are they going to learn? Looking at this list here, 100% of chance of automation for telemarketers, for mathematical technicians, for watch repairers, for cargo agents, for tax preparers, the list goes on. Consider yourself lucky if you are a plumber or an electrician. Those jobs are not going anywhere. So that's a good job to have in the future. And this wave of data that's becoming available, it means all the jobs based on data are becoming so much more powerful and easy to do. That's something we should look at. And then in Switzerland, where I live, we have an interesting proposal that maybe the Turkish government can consider eventually. And that idea is to say, well, if we're going to have computers doing jobs, maybe we should just pay everyone to do something that is not usually paid for. Basically, a guaranteed minimum income. In Switzerland, we have on the ballot this year a proposal that says Swiss francs a month to every person in the country whether they work or not. This is a crazy idea. We're only 7 million people and it's not going to pass this year. But think about the logic. Wouldn't it be better to pay people to do what they want to do, which I call a mix of work and occupation, than to become criminal as a consequence of unemployment? That's a question we're going to face in 5 to 10 years. Because here we are at the university, clearly, we need to ask this question, what is the impact of learning and education? Will we still need degrees? Well, clearly, the question is not black or white or yes or no. We need places, we need degrees, we need certifications. But what happens now is that we're living in a world to where it's much more important to ask questions, because that's the world that we are building our own world where we need to rethink how we do things. And education needs to encompass this. I mean, clearly, this is a large change for educational institutions to connect with that fact. And of course, as you know, you can already earn degrees online and basically in 5 years we're looking at the complete digitization of education. Textbooks, lessons, videos, certificates, virtual learning, vocational training, what a fantastic opportunity for any traditional educational institution to transition. So I have one piece of advice for you, because I've worked in the music business for a long time, don't be a record label. When you do what the music companies have done, you end up with losing about 80% of what you had before. It's very important also that we consider when we are in fact going back to a much more human model of education, we're just going to the right brain rather than the left brain. Well, traditionally speaking at least, the left brain is in charge of logic and understanding things and calculating. This part of it, machines will do. Eventually, all of it, most of it. So we're moving back to a design part, a place of recognizing patterns of imagination. And education will change a lot because of this. So when you look at the immediate future, we're already living in this world where everything that we do is in the cloud. So our music is up there. Our movies are up there with Netflix or whatever channels we're using or Hulu or whatever. And our books are up there and our health records are in the cloud. Everything is moving into the cloud. That's why cloud computing is such a big deal. But ask yourself a simple question. Do we want to move into the cloud as a part of the cloud? Do we just want to be another device in the cloud? Well, the answer is, we want to use that cloud because it's helpful. But we don't want to become part of this cloud. There's a big difference here. Evgeny Mosovov was a really smart writer and one of the biggest internet critics. He talks about what's happening in this world is that people are looking at technology as a giant solution for everything. So we have a problem. We use technology to fix it. The government cannot fix the roads so we have a website where you can report the potholes. We have all these things solving large problems and we can essentially remote control everything. And Google will solve death. This is a real cover from Time Magazine. Or the other thinking is we have environmental problems. We change how we run the world. We do geoengineering. We cannot control pollution. So then we go in and we engineer the weather. This approach is called solutionism. I think this is a very dangerous thing. Clearly what it means is that I would question this and say is this really the way forward? That we invent a new technology to solve the old problem. We really need to look in both directions. And then we have data. The power of data. If you're not aware of this, how important data becomes in an every day environment. What people know about you when you buy groceries with a loyalty card, all the things that they have there. Mobile is the external brain. Artificial intelligence is the connector. You've seen this scene from Minority Report where he enters the store and the store scans his eyeball and figures out who he is but of course he's got it from somebody else so it's a tiny problem. But think about this. This is not far fetched from our reality and things that we're going to see in the very near future. The CEO of IBM said something. I want to get your opinion on this. The CEO of IBM said big business decisions will be made not by experts or by intuition but by big data and predictive analysis. That's basically saying the fortune cookie, you know what's going to happen so that's what you do and precognition which is to anticipate things. I want to see a hand sign. Who believes this is true? That big decisions will be made by big data and predictive analysis. Let me see your hands here. It's okay, you can lift your hands. There's no punishment in the process. The other side of the equation is Albert Einstein who said imagination is more important than knowledge. He also said not everything that can be counted counts so which one of the two is it? I'm not going to ask for hand signs again because you're all going to lift your hands now and make me look stupid but those two things are combining. We have to figure out a compromise between those two things. I think that statement from IBM is pretty dramatic when you think about that a machine could do that, right? Could do the analysis. Is that what we need in the future? And Ray Kurzweil who's the futurist for Google will soon know you better than your spouse. I think they already do. So Google becomes this giant adjunct to what we do. And then there's a great book I read recently by Dave Eggers called The Circle. In the book he says that the paradigm of a digital society is that all that happens must be known. And I would submit to you that is the end of the road if we go in this direction, right? It's good to know a lot of things. Ignorance can be dangerous but omniscience is more dangerous because what it does it creates a giant machine. So we can expect in the near future a lot more of what I call data wars. On the left we have our friend Obama saying yes we scan and on the right hand we have the miracle saying I've been scanned and I did warn her about this but in the future we can expect more discussion about what's happening with data and this is crucial. We have to discuss how to keep data safe because otherwise we're going to become entirely digitally naked. This is a very big issue. So I'm going to talk about one more thing and then we'll do a wrap up and take some questions. First of all the concept now of a digital world is that we're going forward for everything so I call this omnipotence. We feel like we can do anything and this is a very powerful feeling for computers for people in a computing age when we can actually change our genomes to solve problems when we can do personalized medicine. Very promising but also quite dangerous as was said before if taken together with what I call omnipresence to be present anywhere I'm trying to figure this out because I have to travel a lot so it's a good topic for me but telepresence holographics virtual travel omnipresence is within reach being at different places at the same time we're going to see a lot of this and this is an interesting angle on this this is an advertisement by Microsoft I think it never actually went public but I got it somewhere where they're saying that you can actually get work done while you're having the happy hour appetizer or while you're hiking in the national park the consequence of social media at mobile is that 20% of people who are working there 20% of time is spent working more than before because of social media we're actually working more because of technology so the question is this is a good question for all of us to ask when we go home is technology captivating, exciting or is it capturing you ask yourself that question captivating is one thing but captive is another thing and that's something we really have to be watched out in the future not a time to play this video but this is a video by Apple called Misunderstood you can watch it on YouTube the question behind this video that shows a young guy making a movie don't turn on the music just leave it like this it shows a young kid making a movie at Christmas but he's not participating in the family activities because he's making the movie you should watch it on YouTube called Misunderstood the question of technology is no longer whether it can be done this is very scary but whether it should be done so just five years ago we were saying if we can keep the world's information and all the information about us on the server we can do all this miraculous things and now we can do that everything is being kept the question is not whether we can do it but whether it should be done and who controls it and what kind of rules do we have what kind of ethics do we have so I'll give you a quick summary I do hope to get your tweets here I've been monitoring it, it's mostly in Turkish which I can't help with but I will take another look at this quick summary going back to what I said in the beginning we're moving into a future that's about being connected but at the same time not being technology-centric but being human-centric you should gauge every company every politician, everybody you should gauge them not whether they furthering to be connected but also if they're going to make it human because in the end that's what counts for us everything is going to be about being sustainable I always say when I work with Unilever which I do occasionally that sustainability, sustainable it's the new definition of making money is to be renewable and all of these things that are quite scary when the system becomes intelligent when it becomes exponential when it becomes abundant, plenty when it becomes open brings up the risk think about this for a second if you live in a controlled environment you don't allow much change it feels safe because nothing is coming in from the outside as soon as you start connecting with others and you're looking at an open technology for example, it's less safe because open technology is change and this is why we have this challenge of saying we're living in a connected world but the risk increases it's a world that is basically what we have there is no other world just in case you're wondering there is no more disconnected world you can have it in some places jobs or wherever but we are now living in a digital society and that's it there is no going back on that basic simple fact the other thing is that we have to be careful of because when we're looking at technology we always get really excited about possibilities but let's not confuse the realities when we have cool technology and all this data and we can be smart and we can use machines to support us we shouldn't think of ourselves or of our customers or anybody else as machines we should not fall prey to machine thinking that everything can be calculated everything can be measured everything can be mapped machine thinking is a huge issue the other one this little clip from a movie that I quite like it's called Connected by Tiffany Schlein it illustrates the point we're no longer living in a world where everybody has their own tree where companies are living in their own domain where people can run things by themselves where we can have 4 oil companies controlling the flow of money around the world and the economy as a consequence we're no longer living in that world we're living in a world that's completely interconnected telecom companies must talk to media companies they must talk to advertisers they must talk to internet platforms we're basically business, technology, ethics culture and politics in this way and there's no way around it that's also a solution for a lot of large topics of course is to create new ecosystems so I mentioned this briefly but what we're heading now into a world and we've had this discussion for a long time I call this sustainable capitalism it's not invented by me but I'm sure you're aware of there really isn't much of an alternative to capitalism in itself everything else has been tried but the kind of capitalism that we have must reinvent itself to be renewable to be sustainable because otherwise we're reaching a ceiling and it'll explode in terms of climate change in terms of resources in terms of everything so that has been referred to as a circular economy basically taking and giving in the same process and this is really what we're discussing on a global level now this is what technology affords us technology actually gives us those tools to create a circular economy and some people have referred to that as the triple bottom line I think if you read Jeremy Rifkin you'll find out more about this the triple bottom line is about people, planet and profit those three together to make those decisions together so I think that's our future as humans going in this direction and Patagonia and others have already found this out that emotional impact on customers will be in direct proportion of the social purpose so ask yourself this when you're going back to your office does my company have a purpose do we have a message if you don't have a purpose you're not fit for the future because people are looking for a purpose they're not looking for you to just make money but to make money with a purpose and this is a crucial thing I think that we're seeing around us in ecology everywhere so anyway I will publish this PDF because you know it's been quite a few slides and you've been very brave sticking your head out on this I will put it up on my website tonight futuristgird.com it's not hard to remember but otherwise just search for GERD and also on Twitter at G Leonhardt I will put up the PDF so you can download it later and we will have a video so we do actually have some time for questions if you want to ask questions in real life I'm going to look at the machine and I have a new app that actually answers the question also it's called the futurist app just kidding it's not real okay do we have a question here anybody in real life okay don't be shy okay there's one right there should I get the headphone okay alright go ahead oops sorry okay here we are go ahead what is the difference about artificial intelligence and machine learning you made me put this on now you have to speak Turkish okay what is the difference what where are you okay what's the difference about machine learning and artificial intelligence the difference between artificial intelligence and machine learning oh machine learning okay yeah okay well I'll make it quick I'm not an expert on artificial intelligence obviously but basically what artificial intelligence does is that it tries to simulate what we would do as humans so there's a learning process involved for example the google self driving car is a great example in the google car it's driving itself if you go down the road and there's a frog sitting on the road okay and there's a double yellow line the google self driving car will not do anything because it can't kill the frog it can't go over it it can't cross the line it doesn't know what to do it doesn't know that you can break the rules and it will sit there for the next two years until something happens so artificial intelligence would say you know I've seen this before and it's just the frog I can go around it it would make a decision of some sort and so this is what we have now with artificial intelligence very simple things like recommendations and others is that it can act a little bit more human but that's a long way away of sentience actually understanding life that's really quite different as compared to deep learning and those kind of things of course they go together is to say that the computer can make their own decisions within reason to figure out to be more proactive any other questions or comments? Turkish or not okay question right here what would be the major competencies of the future business managers or leaders very good yeah major competencies given that we're giving up a lot of competencies that are now done by machines in the near future our competencies are things like negotiation discussion discovery imagination you don't want somebody imagining things you want them to just get stuff done but now the future is the reverse of this there's a design process there's a negotiation there's understanding machines there's understanding of wide context and of course global thinking so I would maintain most companies I work for in the future we all have to be a little bit of a futurist to be able to move quicker because the other thing is that's really important is speed we have to become quicker at understanding and changing and if you see all the really big startups that are happening around us and technology and stuff they're all people who start from zero to whatever in 18 months and most companies take 18 months so we have to be able to move faster be more proactive the other thing I think that's important to understand in business is that most of the developments and the funding and the reality is moving to emerging countries is moving away from the mainstream of business US Europe and Turkey has a very interesting position there being there and here in connection it's a very powerful position to be in clearly it's not an emerging country obviously but being in the middle between all those things could be extremely powerful so I think we have to understand that innovation and growth is all moving to the guys that didn't have anything so the south and the east and that will create fantastic opportunities one more point on what executives have to understand I'm 53 but it's very hard to understand all the stuff that happens with technology but sometimes it's a very good exercise to pretend that you're 15 to pretend to go inside of these things that only kids do because if you do then you realize the changes that are happening while they're happening you can't actually learn how to swim without getting wet if you don't understand how this actually works you'll never make the right decision it's very important to be able to simulate and understand technology you know I'm always fighting this discussion between technology and humanity I think in the next 10 years we're going to come to a point where we can find a good balance between those two using technology becoming more human as a consequence and that will be a very very large debate about how that will actually happen do we have other questions? Hello, a few years ago I was watching one of these Angel investors program on television and some business startup owner had invented some kind of technological tether beer which was able to tell fair tales to children before night sleep and one of these Angel investors had told that, wow, that's a good idea but it's not the job of technological tether beers to tell fair tales it's father's job or father's job and what do you think is the misson link between this technology and the future of humanity what do you think which kind of startups will fail in the future in terms of technology? Very good point, yeah I think there's a lot of technology that is trying to essentially replace what we do as humans by using something that we can buy for example in the segment of fitness and personal medical care to make you better and fitter but what it does it just transfers our responsibility into an app and the app happens to make money which is a good thing but it's short-lived really good technology changes us as people in what we do and how we do it and empowers us, it doesn't allow us to transfer our jobs into other things, for example there's a fork that was called happy fork, you may have seen it but happy fork is an invention by a French guy that you use the fork to eat and if you eat too quickly it vibrates and it makes you eat slower and be more healthy so when you think about this you could have a thousand things like this controlling your life and telling you what to do at a certain point you have to wonder what the actual purpose of it is so you will not see a lot of technologies like this that will be successful in the long one because they're a gimmick essentially so the ultimate test for technology for me I sometimes also invest in technology is to say that if technology transcends itself if it uses itself but goes beyond to transcend what it does then it's of interest if it actually goes beyond technology and has a purpose that's when I'm interested for example I'm really interested how technology can make the world more efficient otherwise to help us reduce cost while we switch to renewable energy we can solve this problem we can solve the energy problem by those two things but just being efficient will not do the job we also need to do other things so for example you may know a site called cloud K-L-O-U-T which measures how important you are so I go there every day I'm just kidding people like this site because you put in your twitter name your social media and it says you're rated 72 or whatever of course it's a game because you realize it's basically it's just a stupid algorithm but now you have the first hotels in the world that are saying if you have a cloud score over 60 you get a free upgrade because you're important and of course nobody knows what the algorithm is so you can clearly see here that this is a game that is kind of an interesting game but the reality is my cloud score is absolutely not realistic just like how many times I've tweeted is no measurement whatsoever of my value it's not even a measurement how many people I have on twitter that's a value that's not confused the 5% of data that we have with the actual reality because the reality is much more complex than my brain a computer can do a tiny fraction of my brain eventually that may be different so we should not invest in businesses that will try to replace us by being imperfect and pretending to be real that usually doesn't work so other questions Gerd first of all it was great listening to you the information you gave is very exciting but it's very interesting on my side that's what we need I want to ask you two questions on behalf of parents in this room first of all how will we guide our children like you said most of the jobs for them do not exist right now and how much time would you allow your children to spend with technology like playing ipads playstation etc those are complex questions let's first talk about worry basically I think that the way that things change is usually an accommodation of pain and love so you're experiencing some pain so therefore you decide I gotta do something else but you also at the same time you have to have an alternative so this is why it's good to be worried it's not a bad thing to be worried if we don't worry we're not gonna do anything we need things to believe in so we need both to create both to your question as it regards to kids with my kids I don't know if I was successful but we'll turn out eventually I'll show you some pictures but what I try to show them is a discovery process how they can discover their future because really that's all that matters is that you find a way that fits you in the discovery rather than finding something the idea that you be fit into so the important part of education is that discovery process and it's really about discovering what makes you special in the job that you're going to do and create your own job I mean the other day I found a guy I met a guy whose business it is to keep me private on the internet his business is exploding he's got like 50 employees from being abused to keep them private on the internet in all different ways so this job didn't exist I would submit to you that I think we're going to see in the next five years that 25 to 30% of people will start their own companies as a result so we need to teach them how to be independent to be connected to be open and to invent themselves to be more entrepreneurial to be likely going to happen so we keep talking until the evening or not just I'm ready to have my kofta okay sorry sorry I have to get the box here okay yep that's a very good question the short answer would be for me if you're talking to a lot of people in business it's exactly the opposite that was required which is not to be empathic right if you're talking to a lot of people in business it's exactly the opposite that was required which is not to be empathic right so I mean it's interesting to see that we're looking for empathy now until now to be a businessman meant not to have empathy but to look for profit so clearly to me the answer is our way forward is to be have emotional imperfections to have empathy because the computers don't do it even though I would submit that we'll probably learn a little bit of it like in the movie her to simulate us badly of course but our competency is those things you know those ephemeral things that we can connect to create values I mean this is where we're going with this we are not going to beat the machines on all that other stuff I mean that's just it's already over so there we have to find a new position and education is really in demand for this how do you educate people to be creative I mean empathy how do you create empathy and I think in the future a larger money will be spent on teaching people to do that because that's how they create value but I agree with you it could very well be that computers will take a piece of that and in the future also take a piece of our jobs as a consequence I don't really know how that will pan out but that's probably a little bit further away again I'm not comparing humans with machines I'm just saying that it's something we have to keep an eye on because what we have today is a world that's becoming more technologized by every second in many different ways and it's not not all dangerous but some of it is any other questions or comments you decide thank you I will start with a confession I'm like your mother despite I'm younger than her I assume I hesitate to use the full 360 the internet world and the digital world just because of the safety reasons that you just mentioned and you all say that it's a risk to be considered and I always have thought like a door and once you enter you give your everything to the other part of the world and so far whatever I have shared through the internet I thought it's okay for me to share with the rest of the world how can we balance how can we balance it just still being part of this world but still protecting our our own confidentiality I'll make a quick answer my belief is I understand your problem I have very much the same problem my belief is that to safeguard us on the digital network we're gonna talk this is 5 billion people who have this problem very soon just us it should not be the job of the individual to figure out how to encrypt their email most people don't do that to keep us safe in those things is the job of government is the job of the companies providing it that service it's the job of Google and Facebook and it's the job of the government to figure out how can we be safe and what the rules are every new technology needs new rules new norms, new markets and so ultimately it shouldn't be the job of the consumer to figure out how they're gonna you know I mean you have to be responsible but you can't be you can't be responsible for the whole system which means that they couldn't use it so it's a difficult topic clearly there one thing that has been discussed I think that would be helpful in this context is to look at something called the global digital rights bill which is about your rights as a citizen of the internet that we're going to see more of anyway so I think we should continue talking outside because lunch is ready right so you can tweet me or email me or you know find me out there somewhere thanks very much for your time thank you