 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Thursday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company alive from TFNN. Thanks so much for kicking off your trading day right here. And we kick things off with a little bit of action in both directions right now. You get the S&P slightly in the red after quite a record close yesterday on the futures. You're trading right now negative by just four points on the S&Ps. You're trading at 5,011, 5,011. Pretty remarkable. First time I kick off the program with the S&Ps trading at 5,000 in the futures right now. You're negative by four points, quite the acceleration yesterday in the futures. You traded up 50 points from where you were at 7 a.m. this morning. Came into the opening bell. We're at about 5,000. Just shy. You accelerate above that price level right at 10 o'clock as I get off the air. And we held on to that price level. And we traded up to 5,020, almost 50 points, almost a full percentage point. From where you were at 7 a.m. just yesterday, we're trading right now. As I mentioned, negative by four. NASDAQ 100. We're negative by 18. That's just one-tenth percent of the red. 17,823. You have the Dow trading higher. 38,800 on the dot as I speak right now. Pretty remarkable, right? We're 1,200 points away from 40,000. NASDAQ is only about 2,000 away from 20,000. 5,020,000, 40,000. The Russell needs to make it to 2,500, man, to get those highs. 2480, I think, is the high in the Russell. And Russell, negative by two this morning. You jump over to Crude. Crude catching a little bit of a bid this morning. Off of the lows of Monday, we're talking about higher highs and higher lows in this market this week. We're pushing nearly $75. You just got up to a price point of $74.99. And we're at $74.77. Crude up 91 cents. We'll talk about Bitcoin. Quite an acceleration. We're back above $45,000 right now. Bitcoin trading higher. Got a couple of headlines from Bitcoin pulled up that we'll talk about. Gold, a little bit of a different story. Gold right now trading down. We got some action, man. Gold down almost $20 from where it was at 5.30 a.m. this morning. You see the action on a 15-minute basis on the thinkorswim platform. 2036, we're down by $15 on gold. Gold continuing to be extremely volatile. And what do we have going on? We have lower price and we have higher yields coming at you right now. We get the 10-year. Down an additional 10 ticks from where we were just yesterday. You're pushing near the lows of Monday. We're at $110.28 right now. We have the 10-year basically back to 4.15%. I think we're at about 4.11 yesterday. Well off, of course, last Thursday when we were at a $113 price tag, that had the yields at about $3.8 just above that price tag. $3.81, the yield on the 10-year. So what do we have happening? We have rising yields. Now this is where, you know, we talked to Teddy Keggs yesterday on Wednesdays. He talks about forex. We always talk about yields. That ties into commodities. I know we got a lot of gold investors out there. It's amazing how one thing leads the next and you got to know those relationships. And that's why they're all so important right now. What do we have? We have gold down $20. Well, if gold's down $20, I know the dollar's stronger. I know yields are up. Now when those relationships don't always exist, but it's important knowing them and expecting them because usually when they're not all acting the same, one is ready to recoil in one direction or the other because they all matter, of course, you know, to a certain degree. So what do we have? We have yields back at 4.15% right now. You jump over to the dollar. Dollar spiking higher from 104 to 104.40 right now and you jump over to the gold contract and that's putting some weakness in the gold contract down to 2037 this morning. You jump over to the dollar again. We got dollar again pushing 150 again. Oops, did not want to do settings. We want to go to that. We want to back it up a little bit. The highs from November 151.91, we'll call it. We're pushing 149.31 just like that. We back it up on a three-year weekly and you see those highs 151.93. We're basically at the highs right now though. You know, I was looking at this last night. That's why I wanted to pull it up. Don't always jump through the dollar yen in the morning market kickoff as we really do the roundup to see what's going on in the market. Don't always jump to the dollar yen, usually include the dollar, but check out where we are. Technical analysis is an art, not a science, folks. We have come into an area where you're now, you know, we're not up to the highs that we got back here in November, but folks, this is a weekly basis and you could make the case that from September 25th until November 25th and 27th technically, the week of we're talking about here, two full months, the yen chopped around with a high of about 150. That's the similar area that you chopped around one year prior to that in October of 2022 and we are right back at that area. Do you trade a little bit higher? Yes, of course you do. It's a range, folks, okay? We are in that range though now in the yen. It's going to be interesting to see how that plays out as they possibly go forward with a differing strategy in their economy. In this case, we've had a little bit of a fall start here. The first one back in October of 22, the last one back in November of 23 last year. Now we're back right back in that area. Eventually, I think you're going to see that trade lower, folks, but things taken a little bit longer than we expected, right? You take a look at the dollar index since then. Look at this dollar, man, just chopping around. Since basically December of 2022, we've been chopping around between about 101. You made it to 100 at one point, the upper boundary line about 105. There's a lot of there. One thing's got a little out of whack in October, according to the market that is, but we're at 104.37 right now. Backing things up a little bit. Just wanted to put some context into where the dollar has been historically, folks. Now these are periods of time when we have very low interest rates, okay? So what happens when you have very low interest rates? Well, we all know it now, man. You have low interest rates. There's going to be less demand for your dollars and interest rates. What's interesting is everybody had low interest rates, though. Okay, Europe had much lower interest rates than we had. Nonetheless, you see where we are in this chart, okay? Do not get fooled by the fact if you look at a three-year weekly. We don't always spend so much on currencies, man, but the action going on right now when it ties to yields, which is the Fed, which is so much in the market right now. You know, you look at this chart right now, okay? And you can say to yourself, well, geez, we've already come so far off the highs, right? From 115 down to 104. Folks, this was an extraordinary time we lived through. Okay? We're at 104.36 right now. And on a historical basis, going back 20 years, we've only been higher in the dollar on two occasions. At the end of 2022 and the spike you got last year, everything else is lower, and everything else is dramatically lower. And I imagine at some point in the next year or two, going longer picture here, okay? Year or two, I'm talking about. Probably a year, but things are moving slower than we expected. And it seems like that's always the case. I've got a couple of cool articles to talk about here in terms of the market being wrong. Taking a look at some of the charts as we get through the program. We got plenty to talk about. And where are we going to kick things off? Jobless claims. Why not, man? Thursday morning, 8.30 in the morning, initial jobless claims dropped for the first time in three weeks. That would make sense following quite the strong jobs number that we got for the month of January. Filings for unemployment benefits falling to 218,000 last week. Declines and initial claims were broad-based across states. The number they were looking for was about 220, basically bullseye, right? You're talking about 2,000 jobs on a weekly basis. You take a look at the chart. Initial jobless claims, 218,000. You see we had been up, up, up, slight down tick on a relative basis, though. Just very low numbers. Almost below a health level. Almost below a health level. Almost below a healthy churn in a healthy economy. And on a continuing basis, well, still a little bit lofty, 1.871 million on a continuing basis. You can see well off some of those lower numbers we had prior. All right, folks, stay tuned. We'll be coming back. We got a lot to talk about, man. We got to talk about Disney shares. We got to talk about Chipotle, Mexican Grill, both of those trading higher. Look at Disney, up above 107 this morning. They're getting into gaming with Epic Games and Taylor Swift and Chipotle, Mexican Grill, 2700 bucks. We got a lot. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back with Kevin Inks. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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This is someone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Jobless claims data. A little stronger than last week. Still indicative of a strong labor market, 218,000 jobs. The four-week average now, 212. That is Tommy by definition a strong labor market. So the strength there and the strength of the labor market is the strength of the labor market. So the strength there continues. The earnings, you see the doubt because they're up even though NASDAQ and the E-minis are down. That's because of Disney. Trading over, let's see, I have it about 107. Right now that's much bigger than the expected move. So Disney outperforming on some of their good news today, I think I was just talking on the Schwab network about big numbers and what 5,000 in the S&P means. And humans see big numbers and they're attracted to them because that's where a lot of order flow comes in. There's a lot of reasons why people should be paying attention to 5,000 on the S&P. And if you work Tommy on a chart I want to bring the dollar and the Euro into this because a lot of talks are there about the Euro going to 105. Remember the European economy much weaker than the U.S. economy that would pressure the Euro down the dollar up. If you look at last September to basically the first week in November when the Euro was down around 105, 106 and the U.S. dollar went up to 106.5, 107 the S&P went from 45, 30 to 41, 15 during that period. So it just automatically thinking that the markets are going to go up and there's not much to get in the way. Your viewers traders in general should be watching the relationship between the Euro and the U.S. dollar. Euro's down this morning, dollars a little higher that is going to cause a long term for this market. If yields which are higher this morning go with it. I appreciate the awareness man. I was jumping through those charts as you were mentioning it. It is so interesting I think right now and you make some great points how important these currencies are. When you're talking about the dollar, the Euro, they're driven by yields of course. We've got a bunch of gold traders out there. My goodness gold is so impacted by what the dollar is doing. So really interesting to see how that plays out. When we have a 10-year right now at 4.15%, not that bad man in terms of where we go from here. If you get some higher yields from 4.15 it will be interesting to see if the dollar rises and how the market handles that. As you said, you mentioned Disney out there. I thought it was interesting quite the news announcement in terms of what was coming beyond just the numbers. The numbers themselves profit. Boy, they really trimmed to bring in some profits. They doubled their dividend. They got a high back 1.5 billion for Epic Games. They missed a little bit on revenue and they missed a little bit on their subscribers. But I think that's not what was driving this company. I'm sure the price tag this morning would agree. But what do you have? Have they kind of turned a corner there, Kevin? Do you have any feelings longer term? It's going to be quite a morning to the upside of course but we're still sitting at like 107 well off the highs. Are you reading into any of that action going longer term for Disney this morning? Well, Disney has certainly set the table for recovery, but remember a lot of this earnings became from cost cuts, right? They're saving billions of dollars and projected ahead of pace. Remember, they projected $6 to $7 billion in cost savings. And so, Bob Iger said yesterday that they're well on their way to outperforming that in terms of cost cutting. So listen, Mark Zuckerberg made a very good year of efficiency. So Disney doing that and I described Disney yesterday because of streaming as Michael Jordan with a broken leg, right? And the minute they can heal the problems with streaming the rest of this company is actually doing quite well. I don't know if they're doing $8 for quite well but they're certainly doing pretty well here. And the recovery in Disney it looks like at the beginning, Tommy. Yeah, great points. I thought it was so interesting. I mean, in days past, boy, if you ever missed on revenue and you missed on subscriber numbers on Disney, watch out, but that's not where they are right now. And you make that point, they had to trim, they got it done and we'll see where they go from there. With that in mind, we go forward, Kevin, it's Thursday. Would you guys have equities you're talking about at 12 noon today on Fast Market? We have three good names today, Tommy. Like Folio in our middle section of Mexico, they have earnings before the open tomorrow, the consumer stable massive company that is so much more than soft drinks, as you know, free to lay makes up a big portion of their earnings. We'll also trade Pinterest that has earnings after the bell today and Expedia that has earnings after the bell today. Both stocks, you know, travel, social media and digital ad spend and a little bit of consumer stable, something for everyone today, Tommy. And Kevin, I know you have quite an extensive history with Pepsi for those that aren't familiar. You are in the pits, man, and I know I pulled it up right now. We have a $3.84 move you talked about, you know, not a lot of volatility in this equity, but for those that don't know, we are a market maker, are you in the pit? What's your history there? And then as you look for a company like Pepsi, only about a 2%, 2.5% expected move on this equity for those listeners out there because sometimes you look at equity like this and if you want to sell premium you say, do I sell premium? Well, it's great. It's not a very volatile stock. Maybe that's a good area to sell premium. How do you look at maybe a little teaser for a very low volatile stock like Pepsi going into their earnings? How maybe you look at that as a trader, depending on what's happened in the market? Yeah, I spent 20 years trading PepsiCo in the pits of the CBOE and I was also a specialist in PepsiCo options. So yeah, I've traded this many, many, many times in my life, many quarters of earnings and the history on this name is, they don't move very much off of earnings. They're consumer staple. They're very consistent. Now, that's not all the time. Probabilities are not high for a big move. That's why you don't see that embedded in the options, but there's always that opportunity, but historically this is not a big move off options, Tommy. I appreciate it, man. And I'm sure the listeners appreciate hearing that. And boy, I just put this thing back on a monthly chart, Kevin. My goodness, this equity from 43 bucks at the lows of 2009. And yeah, we had plenty of pullbacks. Yeah, the COVID pullback as well, but almost a straight one-way trip to 200 bucks. We got a little bit of volatility in the last six months, though, back to 171. Kevin, I appreciate the time as always. I know the listeners and viewers do as well. And we'll be watching at 12 o'clock today and we'll talk to you next Tuesday, man. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. Always a pleasure. Folks, check it out. Yeah, look at that chart on Pepsi, man. Consumer products, they got a lot going on. Pulling back at the last six months, though, off the highs of 196, but boy, that is almost a straight one-way trip. You talk about a channel from 2009 of 43 bucks almost quadrupling. No, quadrupling. Yeah, to 196.88 at the highs of last year. But yeah, off of those highs a bit, we've got the market popping. Pepsi, not so much. We're coming into their numbers. And yeah, Pepsi this morning, basically flat. We back it up to a five-minute chart. 171.49. We see how Disney's trading going to be an interesting open for them. As you mentioned, a little bit of a miss on revenue, a little bit of a miss on subscribers, but everything else. They even got a Taylor Swift in the mix in there. So we'll see how they open. We'll talk about them as they're teaming up with Epic Games as well. We'll take a look at Chipotle, Mexican Grill. They're higher in the market. We'll be right back to the open. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing. Whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. Our season hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just $1 and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. 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Go to TFNN.com and hit WatchTigerTV. That's TFNN.com and hit WatchTigerTV. And welcome back, folks. We've got markets open. You look at the retail market. LibreP is off by just three points right now. You get the Nasdaq 100, negative by a similar three points. Dow, as Kevin mentioned, up by 41 Disney giving that a lift, you get the Russell right now, negative by less than one point. You jump over to Crude. Above 75 bucks, 75-12 for Crude right now. You jump over to Gold. Gold Ketchum Bay. What's going on with the dollar, man? Gold just popped, right? We were just looking at 2036. We're 2043. Dollar just dropped. Yeah. Nothing too dramatic. We For that dollar index, you jump over to yields as we open, yields sitting at a similar down about 10 ticks and that is putting us with a 10-year yield just above 4.15% right now. Let's see where we're at exactly. I think we're just above it, right? Yeah. No, sitting just under it actually. So 4.15% right where we're sitting. All right, we jump over to Disney. Let's see how they're opening to kick off their trading day following some strong earnings. 107, you hold the open basically so far. You're up about 8%, but we will see where that goes as the day is young. Chipotle we mentioned, we'll go over their numbers. What's going on here? I don't know. Their numbers were the night before? Yeah. Forgive me. Okay. Yeah, they were. But Disney was last night. Somehow I got caught up in that. All right. Disney catches a bid to 107 and let's go over some of those numbers for Disney. So as I mentioned, earnings rising, okay? It was all about earnings, but revenue actually missing. So keep your eye on this one to a certain degree. Not right now, but if this trend continues, that will not be good. Of course, revenue little change, $23.5 billion. Market was looking for $23.8 billion, okay? Held back by Disney's struggling TV business and two theatrical misses, the Marvels and Wish. Thanks to cost cutting, profit this year going to be up 20%, $4.60, market was looking for $4.27, okay? They raised their dividend by 50%, a $3 billion stock repurchase program. They're investing, this one might be the most spicy of all, $1.5 billion in Epic Games, part of a collaboration with a company that makes the popular Fortnite title. And one of the things Iger said is, you know, he was surprised by how many games young kids play. You bring them into your ecosystem, right? You introduce games with all of your characters, the Marvels, Star Wars. They also are going to have Moana out there with a Moana 2. They were going to make, I'll tell you, if you got little kids in the house folks, Moana, absolutely amazing movie, absolutely amazing movie from Disney. The Rock is in there, it was Maui. He's coming back for the second one. They were going to make it into a show. And I guess Iger came back, he's talked about to a certain degree that he liked it so much it had to be a movie. They saw the potential for a box office, man. You got the Rock in there. I don't blame him for trying to make the use of that out there as well. Yeah. And as Kevin mentioned, the bright spot for Disney last quarter, international parks. Parks in general though. We're just crushing it. Profit rose more than fourfold. Sales increased 35 percent. Yeah, you talk about it. 4% gain in revenue in domestic reports, 2% drop in profit, but they're gaining revenue in domestic reports, okay, resorts, excuse me. Well attendance falling at Walt Disney World in Florida. So it looks like you got a little bit of a availability in Florida. Keep that one in mind. Revenue from content sales and licensing fell 38%, domestic TV networks slumped 14%. That's not where the future is, right? Pretty remarkable when you look at that. Now, a couple articles to go through. This one was interesting. This is, this is from the journal and the headline here is Disney's moves give Bob Iger a quote unquote sporting chance, okay? Talking about how much they lost in that direct to consumer segment, they've greatly improved that problem folks and that was a big problem that they were facing, okay? Disney strong results for the December quarter, full disclosure. We had a buy in Disney, okay? I'm giving you the bull case. We had been out of it for a while. Last night I finally said maybe we had an equity and an option trade. If you want to try out my newsletter folks, rocket equities and options, give it a try. So I'm giving you that case with a position on a bullish side in there for some context and disclosure, okay? But this is part of the reason why most notable was the sharp reduction in the streaming red ink, okay? This is what they had to stem. I mean, we all saw the stories. What did they spend something like $250 million on? What was the movie? Was it She-Hulk or something, She-Hulk, right? Something that like nobody's even ever heard of for a season of it. They spent $250 million in their streaming segment, okay? They only lost $138 million in the company's direct to consumer segment, a third of what the analysts had expected, vast improvement from the billion dollar loss they had a year ago, right? So they lost $1 billion a year ago. The market thought they were going to lose $300 to $400 million, somewhere near the higher end of that. And they only lost $138 million, okay? So it's a big one out there. You add on to that. They're going to have the errors tour, March 15th. Remarkable that this thing took in $260 million at the theaters. I mean, it was everywhere. We saw the crowds. That's a blockbuster movie in its own right. She is something else, man. What, fourth Grammy for album of the year just last week. So they get the errors tour, start streaming March 15th. I'm going to watch it, man. No shame in that game. I'm going to watch it for sure. Five new songs that were not included with the film. And she was out there literally at 415 herself, pushing that out to her Twitter followers. You got to have Taylor Swift on your side. And then you talk about Epic Games. And that might be, as I said, the most spicy thing of all is they're going to team up with Epic for some more games, not more, for games, right? Licensing that content, bringing the younger viewers into the ecosystem, getting them ready to be part of whether it's Marvels. I mean, they got so many brands, right? Cars, imagine. I mean, my son, Tommy, man, he loves Lightning McQueen. He still, he was playing with McQueen this morning. He loves Spider-Man, Marvels, OK? His two biggest things right now are, check it out. So he goes from cars, OK? And this is just the natural progression of things, man, where I'm not influencing things, this is just what he's finding. He has access to HBO, Netflix, right? Disney, I mean, the brands in Disney. But you go to dinosaurs, which is ever present, OK? And that's going nowhere. And then you go to cars, Lightning McQueen, Disney. And then you go to Spidey. He's in a good Spidey kick right now. You have Spider-Man. And then you have Spidey and his amazing friends, which is geared towards a younger demographic of toddler like Tommy. And now he's on to Toy Story, too. So he's got Buzz. He's got Woody. The movie Toy Story, folks, was made in 1995, almost 30 years ago. And I look at it and I said, that is remarkable that he can. I better look that one up. Story year, let's see. I think it's 1995, that almost 30 years later. That, yep, 1995. That story can withhold. You get Tom Hanks in there as Woody. You got Tim Allen as Buzz Lightyear, those two alone. And so now he's got Woody. He's got, they're all Disney prints, right? They're all Disney prints. So it's like amazing how that stuff shakes out to a certain degree. But nonetheless, you can see. And now what he's getting into is he is getting into games. He's just turned three and he can really start controlling digital games. And, you know, listen, screen time, man, set your limits, set your time. Make sure it's healthy screen time. But healthy screen time can be a good thing for sure. You just make sure that it's not bad screen time. And don't let them go down the YouTube rabbit holes, OK, unless you're watching because, boy, there is some horrible programming in terms of just for kids that is just not healthy, in my opinion, to a certain degree. But nonetheless, some decent numbers, man, for a longer term prognosis. And when you look at profits, yeah, rising even higher than that. Disney hits 109.5 on the open. You're at 108.56 right now. The market knows that they're going to be OK when it comes to streaming numbers and when it comes to revenue, I think they had a big problem with spending. Yeah, 250 million for She-Hulk. I'm going to find that article during this break, folks. We'll be right back. Stay tuned. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing. Whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. Our season hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just one dollar and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. And remember, at TFNN, we're so confident in the value we provide that we are for a 30-day money back guarantee on all new premium newsletter subscriptions and services. You have absolutely nothing to risk, so why wait? 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four-Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, we got the S&P's negative by just five right now. Back to a five-minute chart. A little bit of a negative action following a positive open. You trade up to 5,016. We give up about seven S&P points since then. These are five-minute bars you're looking at as we dip a little bit lower. NASDAQ 100. Got to change that setting. Somehow it's always firing up orders when I hit the... Yeah, it's the last. Fires up an order. NASDAQ 100. We're trading right now negative by 25 points. Again, a little bit of a dip lower on the open. 17,818. Dow barely in the positive. And that's only because of Disney, man. That's Disney. Hold on to about 107. Yeah, 107.60 right now for Disney shares with the Dow up by four and the Russell negative by four at 1,954 right now. And jump it back to some of those headlines. So I was looking up and it was $250 million for She-Hulk. And it's something like She-Hulk, attorney-at-law or something. What do they sell? What do they call it here? She-Hulk, forgive me, but it is She-Hulk. And it was $250 million that they put in there for an entire season. And I love Disney. Pull up Disney all the time. My kids watch it all the time. Never even seen that thing on the platform. OK, so then I'm looking at that and then I find articles. That secret invasion. Never even heard of this. Yeah, too many Marvel series on Disney Plus, Diluted Focus. Now, this is going way back, folks, OK, to last year, July of 2023. But again, how much did they spend? $212 million. I don't even know that movie, man. I don't even know it between this. That cost more than Oppenheimer. Is that what this one says? I've read one that says it cost more than Oppenheimer to produce. So they had a massive problem. They lost a billion dollars a year ago. They just lost $180 million. I think they're going to stem it from there. As Iger is the adult in the room, it seems like. Dr. Strange cost $349 million. I don't know. I don't know what that is. But nonetheless, they had a massive, massive problem. Now, keep it on your radar, man. We got about two years, 2025, 2026, late into 2026, potentially. But you're going to get some gangbusters, man. You're going to get two Star Wars movies. You're going to get an Avatar movie. I've done the list before. I'll do it again at some point in the future, because it's worth noting that as you approach those timelines. I mean, Star Wars, we haven't had a Star Wars movie, I think since I'll have to look it up. When's the last Star Wars movie? Was it 2019? I think it was. I mean, why are they letting? Was it 2017? Don't tell me that. Really? 2017? Maybe it was. Maybe somebody can help me out in the den. I feel like there might have been a 2019 movie. Let's check it out. Last Star Wars, 2019. Yep, there it is. The Rise of Skywalker. I think that's the last one in 2019 that they came out. Yeah, right at the end of the 2019. 2019 was gangbusters. Look at that. That movie grossed a billion dollars, folks. $1.077 billion. JJ Abrams. $416 million budget. Now, that's how you crush it, man. You put $400 million into a movie, you take in a billion. You don't put $250 million into She-Hulk so nobody knows what's going on. Nonetheless, they do a billion dollar movie and then somehow they allow like seven years to lull between the next one, I guess. But they're going to have two coming out. So get ready for it. The hype will be extraordinary, especially with two on the horizon. The movies have to deliver. But that's the business they're in. So they better get it done. All right, what else do we got? Let's jump around. Let's talk a little bit of Bitcoin. Bitcoin approaches $45,000. US Spot ETFs showing steady inflows. Yeah, net positive inflows for nine trading days. Bitcoin, we talked about it this morning, up above $45,000. Let's check in on what it's trading at right now. I think the future is bright for Bitcoin on a longer-term basis, folks. I do. We cleaned out some of the bad actors, it seems like, some. OK, we are now absolutely remarkable. I can't believe it, man, that we're this far. We're almost, yeah, we're six years past when futures have been trading. Six years futures have been trading on Bitcoin. I remember when that started, man, bonkers. $45,330 right now. See, well off those highs, quite a trajectory. Short-term basis, yeah, you're going to face a little bit of heat to the upside, man, in terms of quite a run from just where we were at $16,000 in the start of last year. But Bitcoin, holding up relatively well, up another $900 so far today, as you see, inflows to those ETFs. And boy, ETFs are going to control a lot from here on out. That is for sure. All right, let's talk a little bit of Super Bowl, man. It's Thursday, we got the Super Bowl, quite a Super Bowl, Kansas City out there and San Francisco. And this is talking about celebrities, and it would make sense. An ad is, I think, $7 million this year. So, you know, if you're going to spend $7 million, why not add to it the exposure you get when celebrities bring their exposure to your ad for them? Mick Lobaltra, that's going to be a big ad, man. As in, they have some real ads, check it out. So Serena has been in the most, with seven ads. Yeah, seven, let me see, they talk about it. Yeah, and then Brady is going to be in his fourth ad since 2016, and he's going to be hocking, get it online betting, of course he is. MGM Sports, but he's going to be in his fourth one since 2016. Christopher Walken, he's going to be an ad for BMW, that's going to be his fourth, and they break down the different celebrities. You got Romo out there, he's going to be in three this year. Good for him. Alex Morgan, Paul Rudd, look at that, Charlie Day. He was in four ads in 2020, so he had quite a run when Tide got him. But I'm going to kick, yeah, so check this out. You have number one, you're going to get the most viewers ever, okay, you're pushing 115 million viewers, something like that. You're talking about how much they cost, there it is. 30 second ad is $7 million. Where are the ads? You got 2021 on the left, 22 in the middle, and 23 on the right. And you can see that where's the influx, beer and wine. It's going to be a bigger number for beer and wine than it has been the last couple of years, man. Food is up as well, financial services down, check that out. Auto manufacturer is down from 2022 to where they are 2023, in terms of where you come in. And then you go to, I wanted to one more chart I had up here. There it is. So this is talking about how many celebrities are in your ads. So you're going to have about one out of four, one out of three ads with no celebrities. Almost 50% of the ads are going to have more than one celebrity and they talk about Uber in here, check this one out. They talk to Dar, they talk to the CEO. Here we go, Dar Kar Shahi, maybe I got to get that name. So they're going to run an Uber Eats commercial, six dozen celebrities. Seems like they're going to have a little bit of a friends mix things. Jennifer Aniston, David Schwimmer, David and Victoria Beckham, Jelly Roll and Usher all in their ads. Six of them for Uber Eats in 30 seconds. Is that going to be a 30 or 60? Probably a 30, but nonetheless. So get ready for that on Thursday as we get ready as well. All right, this is what this one's a good one. I talked about the beginning of the program. I referenced this one as well. Investors are almost always wrong about the Fed. Some pretty cool charts in here. And we're going to go to break in about 30 seconds. We'll start this, we'll finish it up on the other side of the break. The federal funds rate, it's so interesting. So the black is the effective rate. Everything you see in blue here was the expectations that the market has. OK. And what's interesting is, look at how wrong the market is on a consistent basis. Now, listen, hindsight is 20, 20. OK. Look how many times they thought the Fed was going to lift off, man. That's what I find so interesting. OK. Now, expectations are for the Fed to cut. And they've been for the Fed to go wrong. OK. We're going to jump through this. We get some more charts to take a look at. We'll tease some of them. There's the average hourly wage growth. We'll tease a couple more with banks tightening standards. We'll be right back to finish up the show, folks. Don't go away. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities. Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com, educating investors. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades at TFNN. We understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. They must have tool for every trader out there striding to find an edge in today's markets. TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We are the S&P's negative by three. NASDAQ 100 actually makes it into the positive. Let's jump around real quick. We jumped to Amazon shares slightly in the green after a strong week for them. Last week on their earnings numbers, you jump over to Apple shares, negative by three tenths percent. You jump over to Microsoft shares, biggest company in the world, only getting bigger. That's an all time high today, man. 414.37, we hit 415.56 earlier for Microsoft shares. You jump over to Meta down about two thirds. Tesla shares this morning, positive. But as I've been saying, be careful of Tesla shares. We jump over to Disney. Yeah, strong numbers for Disney, man. Up almost 10% to 108.64 for Disney shares. And jumping back real quick. So we were talking about this article from the journal, just talking about how wrong everybody was. That's the starkest chart of them all, man, right? The effective rate versus the expectations, how often the market is thinking we're doing one thing and look at how it keeps doing it. And we're just not coming back just yet. Okay, we'll see when that market finally catches up. It usually does, but this one took seven years from where we were to lower rates. It would be remarkable if you ever had this low. I mean, just look, folks. The market thought we were gonna start lifting off two full percentage points, many occasions. And it tried to get ahead of it and it never happened until you got the taper tantrum, right? Where was that taper tantrum? Somewhere in there, right? The next one you get down to real quick as we finish up, wage growth. They got a long way to go, man. Okay, hourly wage growth. This was one of the biggest shocks last time when we got the jobs numbers for January. Well above where they need to be. And you could argue that we got some lag going on, right? We talked about earlier in the week, Boeing's gonna have a problem with their employees coming back for higher wages. There's a lot of people that still need higher wages in this market. And the last one is you look at domestic banks tightening standards for large loans. On the upside is tightening here, okay? On the downside is easing. We are in an easing cycle. That's not gonna tighten the economy, man. Okay, we are easing right now as banks loosen standards right now as rates have come down. So yeah, we got a long way to go in terms of what the market is looking for right now. Pretty interesting when you look at that. And the last news we end on is Google. They're rebranding Bard, good for them. Cause I was like, Bard, what is that? Gemini. Yeah, Bard AI is now Gemini. I think that's a much better name. Google shares flat right now at 146.70. Look at this market. Nasdaq, Dow, Russell, all in the positive as we end the session. Stay tuned, folks. Basil's up next. Larry is back today. My dad back at three. Have a great Thursday, everybody. We'll see you tomorrow morning.