 Hi, good morning and welcome to these products and focus. There's two elements We want to talk about this morning one is about the FOMC Which is just kind of almost getting a little bit beyond the joke two weeks ago Janet Yellen the FMC incredibly dovish You know surprise the markets about their industry Decisions then you had Fed member Lockhart coming a good owner There's very likely to be an increase in April and that kind of took the market by surprise one hour later He then comes out and says oh actually maybe I made a mistake and then last night We had yet more information coming out from some other Fed members saying actually maybe an April rate hike in America It's not impossible and that means you know you've seen the dollar go shooting up You've seen the American markets kind of drift down a little bit European markets get a hit hard The Fed right now has almost no credibility in what they say when they come out with statements one minute They're dovish Nick meant their hawkish You don't really know now until they actually come out with the end result of that debate And that's kind of where we are the April rate hike would be a little bit of a shock right now considering the state of the world economy But nevertheless, maybe the Americans have reasons for doing that It could be politicized aspects of that what higher interest rates in America mean for the global economy Especially against perhaps some other countries out there that'd be sensitive to that who knows but right now I guess it's kind of exciting But you very very hard predict what the Fed is actually gonna do next when they keep coming out with one statement one week And then a different statement the next week Like what has changed in the last week in the last seven days in the last 14 days Doesn't appear to be a lot but obviously they're privy to more information than the rest of us The second piece of information is in regards to taxation on copper profits for this for the next financial year and a lot of analysts coming out Almost universally people seem to think that the copper profits are not going to be as high We've obviously talked before about these videos about there the gap between the upgrades and downgrades Has never been wider than what it is at the moment So that's quite interesting as well So obviously a company's making less profits or paying less tax which is less money in the coffers for governments It's as bad news for everybody really we could do with them or copper profits out there And I think there are some analysts coming out So there's a 50% chance the next two years that there's going to be You know downturn and the markets based on how the charts of copper profits Are looking at taxation and copper profits. It doesn't really look a huge rosy picture But it's mainly the macro data that's going to help a lot of traders aside Which way the market is going to be going in the short to medium term But these are obviously little warning signs if margins are getting squeezed and a lot of that's probably actually coming from oil companies Now that I would think about it energy companies really getting hit hard They've historically been quite big ticket firms for paying lots and lots of tax And they're obviously not doing so much at the moment So that gives you a bit of an idea about the current fundamentals affecting the markets Let's look at things from a technical perspective So as ever starting off with the us 30 Slowly drifting down these last couple days not a huge movement on the back of those fed hawkish comments from the fed members last night, but still slowly drifting down 81% have seemed to market plants currently short So at least they're getting a little bit of extra cash back in their pocket And a number of other technical indicators are still massively overbought on the us 30 We are heading into the bank holiday weekend So I wonder if you'll see a little bit of a sell-off because people might not want to have money on the table When you've got you know, four days holidays coming up So moving on to the uk 100 similar picture similar arguments to what we just happened us 30 though It's kind of just oscillating kind of closer just below 6200 We're hitting that 20 on pured sma 69% of seem to market clients are currently Short the other technicals have slowly began to kind of neck down We had a failure to move higher yesterday. It wasn't positive territory ended up going negative after the fed japan 225 16896 seems to be a level of oscillation We could expect that to continue over the next couple of sessions There's not much new information coming out of japan other technicals now relatively neutral apart from mac d That's just about to cross over in a negative way Moving on to dollar yen the us dollar really getting a shot in the arm after last night's comments It'd be very interesting. We do get another interest rate hike hike in april But they're possibly thinking let's get these hikes in now So at least we can actually do something if there is some sort of downturn in this couple of years Perhaps they can't keep them low forever at least it gives them a little bit of leeway So the dollar getting a little bit of extra love It's not like it's going great guns, but it is moving in the right direction Moving on to crude oil west texas is coming off a little bit more came up more aggressively yesterday This is to do by a further influx of oil Coming into the market Obviously the stronger us dollar not helping things so 37 56 could be the potential support level to be aware of Certainly 65 percent of seems to marks clients currently short. So they're anticipating further downside Moving on to gold gold got hit really hard Is a higher interest rates in the u.s is negative for golds for very negative move. Yes today overextended Clients are unfortunately 70 79 percent long So they'd be feeling the pain a little bit there Perhaps they're thinking this is an overextended downwards move and we're trying to anticipate a move to the upside But looks looks here from a technical perspective that 1191 could be the next potential support We are miles through that 21 period sma But we are coming up close to that 55 period if we did get closer to 11 91 Then looking at your old dollar your dollar drifting lower again One spot 11 0 5 is potential support and that's in the back of us strength rather than your weakness And then 72 percent of seems to mark clients are currently short So they must be quite happy right now and then have a look at gbpsd You know sterling is just not having a great time with brexit and stronger us dollar blah blah blah One spot 41 29 is the potential support level to be that's been broken The next potential support is going to be down here and in fact, I should really draw that on As I mentioned, this is bank holiday weekend in most major countries So what do we actually have coming up? There's two bits of us data coming up on friday and monday Let's go to market pulse and then my market calendar And let's have a quick look. So today's quite a lot. UK retail sales durable goods employment claims. There's a Japanese data tomorrow, you've got a GDP from the us Monday personal consumption from the us and then Tuesday. You've got the consumer confidence index and some Japanese data Wednesday Consumer confidence index consumer price index for eurozone and germany ADP private perils and before you know it, you're on to non-fan perils and it's time to go crazy in the markets again Well guys, that's it for me. I'm obviously going to be off on holiday as well So join me again on july to find out what happened next very good luck And have yourselves a great holiday as well. Thank you very much and goodbye