 All right folks as we talked to Tim or every Tuesday and Thursday at 3 30 p.m. Eastern time we have Tim on the line you can reach Tim at his website or dash oracle.com and we're gonna talk some ratios man looking forward to it Tim or good afternoon yeah good afternoon thanks for having me on again my pleasure man I was doing my program yesterday and I was talking about you know pretty interesting we talked to you last Thursday and we were referencing maybe Tuesday where this market will be it's held up pretty well man we're sitting just under 5100 right now I got your charts ready where do we want to kick things off Tim actually look this chart one is probably the most important one right now and this is the monthly SPX or the standard port 500 and goes back to about mid 2016 and what's what's going on here if you look up to the right where we are right now which is a upper right hand corner it's a Catholic pattern going on we're about basically 50% above the upper Bollinger band and that's kind of a on a short term basis that's kind of an exhaustion move to the upside if it's less than 50% usually there's not a problem the market is not really too exuberant I guess you might say they're going to move higher so I circled the times going back to mid 2016 the times when 50% of the candle was above the upper Bollinger band and every time that happened you know this is a monthly chart a lot of times the next month was a down month and sometimes the next two three months with down months but normally you get a bigger consolidation so why I really want to happen here is the market this month closes on what through well last day of the month is Thursday so I went for this month the month of February they actually close back on the upper Bollinger band which is right around actually I got the number right there it's 4 9 8 9 so basically 5 5,000 5,000 or a little bit lower ideally if that happens then the markets not really overbought would probably still move higher on a short term basis if it stays here then chances are much marked will be a down month so ideally if you really bullish want to be bullish short term you really want to pull back here over the next couple three days get around 5,000 or below and then from there we could probably keep pushing higher and the bottom window is the SPX VIX ratio it's on a monthly time frame and normally if the SP's make higher highs and that ratio makes lower highs you can have a short term consolidation and that's kind of what's going on here so I'd like to see the market pull back between now and Thursday and it's kind of doing it weekly or not or WEAK LLY weekly not week as in day of in number of days so lacking strength right yeah so I like to see a little bit of weekends here so if we do that then March there's probably going to be an up month so we'll see how it trades out so let's flip it to another chart number two here okay I got it up yeah yeah so the first chart we're looking at the monthly chart the second chart is the weekly chart so we're kind of going down in time and this is that ratio back on page one that was a bottom window the second window up from the bottom is the SPX ratio on a weekly time frame and the S&Ps to look over what's going on over the last since January basically the S&Ps have been making higher highs well this ratio just flip sideways here and that's usually kind of indicative of a consolidation sometimes they they snap out of it and start going higher we'll have to wait and see if that happens here but we can back off a little bit here anyhow the market one trying to point out here is not really set up to really go strongly higher forward short-term it needs a rest and needs a pullback of some sort kind of reset the market to build some strength going forward and I think you know the if the markets up every week it gets overbought and time frames and it and it actually consolidations are actually good in that it kind of builds energy for the next it builds more energy to to the upside so it's always just kind of do here the reason why I flipped a chart three real quick you're making a lot of sense to him even though this market just continues higher man I mean and we all know that parabolic markets are a little dicey man and that's I mean these runs are pretty extraordinary that we're experiencing right now so I appreciate you sharing this info go for it I got number three up there yeah number three so anyhow so the monthly charts is ideally you like to see a pullback around 5,000 a little bit lower nothing real significant nothing extremely bearish here but the market needs to build actually some fear in it you know Joe Granville back in the day he said you know the market climbs a wall of worry but you really define what a wall of worry is is basically fear in the market you have no fear in the market you can have you can have really have a setup for a debit saying market and the way I major fear is by the trend the trend is definition of a trend is advanced issues divide by declining issues divide that number by advancing volume divide by declining volume when now we do all that rigmarole anything above 1.2 you got more volume to the downside on downstocks and basically that's kind of a very scenario but fear is actually good for the market and at 1.2 on the trend close and above is when the down blowing is starting to increase on the downstocks you would think that would be bearish but actually is bullish I see we're kind of running out of time here but hang with us all right because I know we get a couple more charts we'll finish this up on the other side of the break okay all right so stay tuned folks we're coming back with 10 we're on chart three we're talking S&P we're talking VIX we're talking trend we'll be back in three minutes folks don't go away welcome back folks we got the S&P's just hanging around 5,085 we're positive by five points we're talking over and Tim or to remember you can reach Tim at his website folks or hyphen oracle com and let's pick up where we left off Tim all right chart number three like we said Joe Granville you know the really have a rally to continue you need a wall of fear or wall of worry I think he said per quote and I always try to figure out what's that mean so I went back and actually you use the trend to figure out when the trend is in a panic mode that's rings above 1.2 that shows more volume it's going into downstocks and upstocks when you know you think that would be bearish but actually is bullish and the more fear you got in market the more the stronger the rally thereafter and I got the kind of a short-term type indicators of bottom two windows are the three-day trend the next window up is that two-day trend okay normally anything above 1.2 in that range and both those two or three-day trends normally you're building energy for the next move up and all that pink area shade pink areas are when the two and three-day trend reach the rings of 1.2 or higher so right now we got trend on both of them just low over 1 1 1 1 0 6 you know it's 1 0 3 so we don't really have a lot of fear here in the market and we got a gap to go on the chart there kind of that blue area up there that's where a gap is in the market the bigger the gaps normally the big ones get filled the small ones a lot times don't and here we got a big gap comes in a little bit below 500 on the SPY's which is pretty good target on the monthly chart because I want the monthly chart by Thursday's close to close below 5,000 that would suggest we got it that the rally that started basically over the last couple of months could continue to save above what a bit above 5,000 where it is right now then probably marks will be down be a down month so we'll see what the next couple of days go it seems like short order here we got today tomorrow or today is almost over we got tomorrow and Thursday and if we get a decline fill that gap and close there chances are marks will be a high update and also I'd like to see that that the the two and three-day trend both get in on this potential pullback to get above you know 1.2 on average on the two and three-day average we do that I think we'll have enough energy that gap will find support in the market probably push higher all the way through March what way see that happens well I know you're not forecasted I was just gonna say it's interesting the last day of the month Thursday we get that inflation data so maybe that's an impetus to give this market a little oomph in one way or the other and we'll see but yeah if they get it gets oomph to the upside I think Mark will be down to the downside that I think that was especially if you get panicked in the ticks and trend also I want to point out back on February 13th I on the volume chart there I had a selling climax day and that selling climax flow has not been touched most selling climax flows get touched at some point that comes in around 482 doesn't have to be but most of those selling climaxes are tested well this one we tested you know there's maybe a probably at least a 60% chance that it will but not a hundred percent chance so it's something I watch for especially if you test that selling climax in a lighter volume it actually would be a kind of a bully sign especially if you get the trends two-day trend three-day trend above 1.2 you really have a good setup for another rally that could last a month or longer so I feel like where I am kind of right now I'm neutral I'm not real bearish here because I think the pullback will be done this week if there is going to be one it's going to be this week and if there's not one then I'm probably gonna stay neutral because that would suggest Mark could have some trouble especially we don't have enough energy which I call energy panic in the ticks and trends suggests the rally can continue here not to the rate it has without you need fear in the market to fuel a rally right now we haven't really had fear until basically back in look like about mid-January so we do for another fear gauge here to that lighten up a little bit or to ignite the market I guess you might say sure maybe a reason to give some I think we could see 5,000 on the S&P's I hope that area will come support sure maybe that gives people an impetus to buy is in a slight pullback versus sitting at you know 5100 and change practically as in a little lofty I think we all see that it might be a little lofty for sure reasonable yeah that's that's what I'm thinking so we got time to move on or you want we do we got a few minutes left man I got chart 4 up here right this is kind of a this is a weekly chart on the inflation deflation ratio and when the RFI of this inflation deflation ratio gets below 30 as I print this chart is 28.45 right now you're usually at intermediate term lows I marked them all with red circles and the dark red circles are times when we're gonna flip back and forth it a little bit okay flip to chart number 5 real quick I got them all ready we're there go for it all right to chart 5 if you look at the bottom chart on chart 5 it's the 50 day average of the up down volume and when that when the bold the bold areas on this chart match the bold areas on chart number 4 so you got two different methods settling the same bottom so I'm trying to point out okay so those are totally unrelated different type things yeah still pinpointing the same bottom what on chart number 5 what that bottom predicts a lot of times you go sideways for a number of weeks before the rally begins and on chart 4 a lot of times rally begins pretty much within a couple of weeks at latest sorry what is what is the bottom two different methods here on chart 5 what is the bottom that I'm looking at again I see gdx the moving average 50 is a and what is that what I'm looking at on the bottom there for chart 5 yeah chart 5 the bottom and the bottom window is the up down blind with a 50 day average okay cool so when it gets below minus 20 that seems to be the the depth of that indicator and a lot of times that's a low and I have marked where I think with red lines cross it out there when they come in and so we're we hit there actually last week now we're still down pretty low we're but minus 13 something but we hit there last week so even though the market pretty much hasn't changed much is making it attempt to test last week slow but we also now got the RSI the RSI is on a weekly time frame and the 50 day average is on the daily time frame but it's a 50 day average so that's almost what 21 trading days in a month so that's a little over a month of trading for that indicator get down below minus 20 so they're kind of bigger time time frames one's on the weekly one's on it almost a little over a month time frame so both of them are taking a little in this vicinity right now Tim that was nine that was that was what 20 minutes of action-packed info man I really appreciate it folks that was so much info always remember we archived each of these segments right on our YouTube page just search TFN we'll have this interview up with Tim right on that page you can reach him in his website or hyphen oracle.com Tim I appreciate it as always man look forward to talking to you on Thursday all right see you then thank you have a great one