 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Pretty fun day for baseball We're even though there are just 10 games for tonight I'm finding a decent amount of value both in the money line department and in these strikeout prop departments So I feel pretty good about tonight's sleight What we'll do for today is break down the money lines I like a couple of strikeout props as well to try to get you ready to have some fun on your Monday night Welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to break down Monday's MLB slate breaking down my favorite bets Available right now over at Fandall sportsbook We'll dive into the money lines first and then the strikeout props in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We were here every weekday talking and they'll be for today But also the open championship tomorrow at branding and do love He'll break down his thoughts on Ferrari macaroy can get the job done once again tomorrow find that right here on the covering the spread podcast He but also over on the Fandall YouTube page and over on Fandall TV plus Take your first swing at betting MLB on Fandall and get ten times your first bed of mountain bonus bets win or lose Up to two hundred dollars. 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Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois Tennessee and Virginia call 1,800 next step or text accept a 533 for two in Arizona 188-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash check in Connecticut 1,809 with an Indiana 1,805-224700 or visit ksgamblinghealth.com in Kansas 1,877-770 stop in Louisiana Visit mdgamblinghealth.org in Maryland 1,800 gambler net in West Virginia or call 1,805-224700 in Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling help line ma.org or call you hundred three two seven fifty fifty four twenty four seven support in Massachusetts Or call 1,877 hoping wire text hoping Y in New York Let's dig in now to the baseball for today and break down where I'm seeing value starting off with the money lines over At Fandall sportsbook there for them with what I'm seeing as being decent values based on my model The first one is going to be in one of the first games of the night Actually did shift that is the Orioles and the Dodgers Orioles money line it was minus 106 earlier on it is now out to minus 116 now that actually does make it a little bit tougher minus 116 53.7 percent odds I've got them at 53.7 percent to win as well So we're actually in the scrubs recommendation because it's no longer a value That is the glory of recording lies So if you can find the Orioles money line at minus 106 minus 105 somewhere in there I would still be willing to take it because that's where I took it But if it's minus 116 at Fandall, that's gonna be a tougher sell for me Let's say a pathetically though you pulled this open later on maybe it's moved back to bit Maybe some you know, there's been some buyback on the Dodgers Whatever it may be or you could find a better number elsewhere The reason I was on the Orioles money line to begin with was because I think Grayson Rodriguez might be a bit under values went back down to AAA pitch pretty well down there and Specifically what he did was he limited hard contact because that was his big bugaboo in the majors outside of walks The two things were walks and hard contact the hard contact issue did get better at AAA The walks didn't really looking at machine on the other side He's made four starts in the majors so far and Still has not gotten the level of strikeouts that he got down in AA which makes sense because the jump from AA to the big League is pretty tough So I feel like these two pitchers are a bit more even than what the initial market was saying And that's why I was on the Orioles money line at minus 106 so Shop around see what you can find here if you can get the Orioles You know minus 106 is probably about as far as I was willing to go just because I was I want typically two percentage points of value to take to take a bite and I was right around there So I wanted around minus 106 minus 105 somewhere in there to be on the Orioles minus 116 is almost exactly dead on with my model So if that's the best you can get I probably would hold off on betting the Orioles for today Let's check on the second one to see if there is value there a Little bit of movement here as well unfortunately So again the fun of recording in the morning I still think this one though is a big enough value for you to take it second money line recommendation for today It's gonna be the Marlins their money line is now minus 104 at Fandall sports book It was even money earlier on so a bit of movement towards the Marlins here And I think that movement is correct It is a very tough matchup here for Jesus Lizardo the starter for the Marlins facing off with the Cardinals because they got Paul Goldschmidt they've got Nolan Arnauto a lot of guys who can bash lefties, but Sample on the Cardinals against lefties this year is pretty big and their WRC plus is 106 I think that's kind of emblematic of this Cardinals team where they just kind of underwhelmed and they haven't met expectations in a lot of ways So maybe they get better because they've got a lot of dudes who can mash lefties and they haven't done that yet so far And you expect them to get better as Tom goes along But it is also a pretty large sample and Lizardo is a very good pitcher. He's made 19 starts this year 29% strikeout rates 3.38 skill interactive ERA That of all suppression not his strength by any means, but it's also not a massive weakness either Miles Nicholas starting for the Cardinals here. He got to start Friday before that game was suspended So when three innings there about 34 pitches, he's a horse So I don't feel like he'll have any issues bouncing back after effectively was a bullpen session on Friday and going full length on Monday, but I Feel like a pilot of balls a lot of balls in play here the Marlins don't strike out much Nicholas in general not a high strikeout guy. So I do feel like the Marlins are the right side of this bet. I've got the Marlins win odds at 53.5 percent The implied odds now minus 104 are 51% so still around 2 percentage points value That's enough for me to feel good about it So I think the Marlins even with that being minus 104 now versus even money earlier on Still enough value there for you could bet them on the money line taking on the Cardinals for tonight So the the Marlins minus 104 first actual recommendation will have for today. Let's see if this one has moved as well It's between the Rangers and the Rays this one is still where it was earlier on that is the Rangers money line even money and I Feel like this line is kind of telling you they are assuming that Shane McClanahan is fully healthy because The Rangers are a very good team I know Dane Dunney is not the same level as McClanahan but the Rangers in general a very good team and You're getting them even money at home against McClanahan and McClanahan We have not seen him be fully healthy for a while now We've been seeing him get a full workload in several weeks and I feel like it's a little bit concerning that he did get pushed back I think you're supposed to start on Saturday or Sunday They pushed him back instead to pitch on Monday that could have been because they had the post-pomance There was some funky stuff there. Maybe that's why but Still a little bit concerning to me that he got pushed back given the amount of time He has had to rest up since that back injury flared up So a little bit concerning there opposing pitcher is Dane Dunning. He does not get many strikeouts In fact, I think there is value in his strikeout prop under for tonight, but really good job It's a pressing hard contact even when he's moved in the rotation. You look in that time Getting ground balls hard hit rate is pretty okay now both these offenses are very good So we could see some runs here, but the Rangers have a 140 WRC plus against lefties So if McClanahan is not 100% healthy that could be a pretty big issue for him The raise WRC plus against righties down to 119 right now So my model puts the Rangers win odds at 57.4 percent Their implied odds are 50 percent. I feel pretty good about that So the Rangers money line even money I feel good about that and we'll be talking about this game later on We talked about some strikeout props as well pertaining to my skepticism that McClanahan is going to get a full leash for tonight Final money line. We are on for today's me the Royals They are a plus 114 taking on the Tigers and I do want the Royals side of this one over at Fandall Sportsbook They're facing Matt Manning and Manning is a guy who just came back off the IEL You want to see him look good because still a younger pitcher a guy who had a lot of prospect type And you want a route for that kind of guy hoping he can be fully healthy and through five starts He has a 3.72 ERA But the underlying numbers pretty concerning not only does Manning have just a 6.1 percent swinging strike rate But he's letting up a 45 percent hard hit rates and a 54 percent fly ball rate So what that means is he's not getting whiffs. He's letting up some dangerous hard contact So he could let up base runners and then let up dangerous contact after that. That's a pretty brutal combination He's facing Jordan Lyles. Lyles had an awful year. I think he's lost like 11 games so far Obviously when lost records are pretty bad, but you know It's not great when you've lost 11 games regardless of the circumstances But I would say Lyles has cut way back on his curve usage over his past six starts in that time Letting him just a 30 percent hard hit rate a very very good number So when you combine the fact that I think that Manning may be due for some negative regression With the fact that Lyles has been a bit better recently that to me says I can feel okay Taking the Royals money line of plus 114 my model has the Royals favored in this game So getting plus money at 114. I think that's more than enough to feel good about it So we'll take the Royals plus 114 on the money line for the final one for tonight So to recap the money lines here We've got the Royals money line plus 114 the Rangers money line even money the Marlins money line Maybe you can still get even money It is minus 104 a fangirl sportsbook right now And then if you can get the Orioles back out to minus 105 minus 106 somewhere in that range I would show value on them as well at that number as For a strikeout props go let's go back to that Rangers versus raise game and in that game I feel like you could actually talk yourself into Unders on both the pitchers Yeah McClanahan under five and a half minus 112 Dane Dunning under four and a half is minus 116 Let's play around this here build out a little same game parlay again I don't typically do same game parlays But I think in this specific instance where I'm showing value on three separate spots in the same game If you hypothetically wanted to do so the Dunning under strikeout market is Counter to the money line for the Rangers because more strikeouts implies more success And so you want to keep that in mind for sure But the McClanahan one does a mesh pretty well with the Rangers money line I do show value in all three these legs individually So if you were to pair the Dunning under strikeouts four and a half with the clan in under five and a half and the Rangers money line That gets you to plus 582 at Fandals sportsbook on the same game parlay. I think that's totally fine I think that is something to consider as you know personal preference for me is typically not to do that So let's go back here and talk about my favorite bet in this game at beyond the Rangers money line Which would be McClanahan under five and a half strikeouts Which is currently minus 112 over at Fandals sportsbook and is a lot of the same stuff We discussed when talking about McClanahan earlier on where I need convincing that he is fully Shane McClanahan and let's say a pathetically McClanahan is fully good to go got some bullpens in before between his his Short start between this one is on the IL. Let's say he's fully ramped up Even then it's a tough spot because the ragers as a team had a 19.9% strikeout rate against lefties on the current active roster So it could be tough to get here even if he is fully healthy So what I want is I want the clan and to prove me wrong I like she made clan and a lot of pitchers. So I want to go out there and shove I want to go out there and pitch really well if he does that I will stop betting against him on the money line stop betting the under on the strikeout markets because I want him healthy I don't think he's healthy right now. So to me That says this number is too high until we get confirmation that McClanahan is fully healthy So I'll take McClanahan under five and at strikeouts minus 112 again if you want to go McClanahan under Dunning under The Rangers money line that's plus 582 for a same game parley over at Fandall Sportsbook I think that's okay, and I am okay with that for sure and Not my personal way to go not the way I'm gonna do it personally But if you want us more fun baking a bit more juicy for you, you can do it that as well Second strikeout prompt for today for me. It's going to be in the late game That is the twins and the Mariners. I'm gonna take sunny gray his strikeout under under five and a half is plus 108 right now and a lot of this is because of the twins Philosophy as a pitching staff where they're okay having their starters go pretty short They'll have them go out there go five or so innings 90 or so pitches and get yanked I have great projected for more than 90 pitches But there is always a possibility that the twins decide to pull the cord pretty early Which should factor into analysis with strikeout props with anybody on this team Gray himself seems to be regaining some of his form. He's had some better starts recently He had a really bad stretch back in I think earlier June where he's walking a lot of guys But we look at the large sample in nine starts for gray with more forcing fastballs He is top five and has strikeouts just want or just twice his strikeout rate in that time. It's under 20% and I know that he is facing a high strikeout team here in the Mariners But he's on the road gray does have some decently drastic home road splits at least this year in terms of his strikeout Rate where it's much higher at home much lower on the road around 20% there So when you combine all these factors together, I have great projected for 4.9 strikeouts Again, the strikeout number here is five and a half with plus money on the under We have multiple paths to get there could be the gray goes out there and goes his full length But maybe is keeping with this trend where he's not getting a lot of strikeouts Or we could see a a twin situation where they yank the guy early as a result of you know reading his form and stuff like that I think the twins are smart in that regard. This is not a bashing of them. I am a twins fan I think that they do play things pretty smart in the way they do that, but I Do believe that it leads it leads us to another path to an under on guys like gray So we'll take gray under five and a half plus 108 on top of the McClanahan under five and a strikeouts minus 112 over at Van Duel sportsbook That's all we have as far as MLB goes for today again We're back again tomorrow talking about some the open championship But before we do that got to go back to last week and recap the weekly stuff that is wrapped up for the show here We discussed you on the show that begins with golf We have the Genesis Scottish open we have Brandon Gadoula on to preview that find Brandon on Twitter at Gadoula 13 of Rory Macaroy getting the win which is awesome to see Rory has been a guy I've been rooting for for a while Did not bet him this time so I had to go Scotty Sheffler Brandon recommended Sheffler to so Missed out on the outright for Sheffler who did finish inside the top three, but honestly if it's Rory McElroy winning I'm not gonna be too upset because it's good to see Rory winning once again Hopefully it'll be in contention this next week at the open championship as well Sheffler outright was a recommendation for Brandon 7 to 1 Tyrell Hatton the other outright at 20 to 1 the two props of Brandon had where Lucas Herbert top 20 at plus 320 and Padraig Harrington at top 30 at plus 310 Harrington started awesome He had a couple rounds in the 60s and then shot a 70 on Saturday But then Sunday he shot a 74 fell back to 40 seconds So couldn't quite get that top 30 but Harrington very good for me in three balls At least on Friday. I think he chopped on Friday played really well the first couple of days so Didn't quite get the cash of Brandon, but being on Harrington profitable if you found other ways to do so aka three balls the other one again Lucas Herbert top 20 plus 320 Herbert finished 60 It's so no cash there But Brandon's gonna slot of winners already so far this year so looking forward to talking to him once again tomorrow To break down the open championship Maybe we'll get a discount number on Scotty Sheffler after the Rory win this past weekend The NASCAR cup series recommendations have not wrapped up yet because that race is going to be today at noon Eastern So I'll be watching that later on today Exhibited series did run the two bets I had there were Sammy Smith to win at plus 750 Chandler Smith Plus 150 for a top five Chandler Smith did cash he finished second So the plus 150 for a top five did cash there Sammy Smith Qualified seven went to the back to start the race for adjustments worked his way up to 15th Then got a speeding penalty went to the back again Use the strategy get back up to the lead and his car is banged up He'd gotten clogged up on a restart where there was a massive chain reaction since cars kind of banged up And he was running second or so but some late-race restarts. He got pushed back I believe to six but didn't have the winning car John Hunter Nemechek the guy I was below market on but Did have him as most likely winner he went on to win So I think Nemechek would have won that race even if Smith had not had the two penalties And if he had not had the damage in the restart I think the Nemechek just had the best car for that day so didn't get the Smith at plus 750 But did get the Chandler Smith at plus 150 for a top five and again a cup series stuff So coming up later on today for looking to bet something for Monday as always do so responsibly But do a betting guide over a number fire which added some stuff added some context to the bets We talked about last week. There is a driver. I think it's a pretty massive value right now a super star driver You can get a pretty good number. So find that over at number fire calm If you want to get in some NASCAR action before the green flag add new That's all we got here for today on covering the spread as mentioned We are back once again tomorrow breaking down the open championship with Brandon Get doula find that right here on the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or over on Spotify You can also find us on the fan dual YouTube page or over on the fan dual TV app if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a and an ES you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB bets or NASCAR bets today as well We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk about the final major of the year This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network