 Okay, very good morning. It is 17th of June Monday Antony here so good to be back after a week or so off the desk and Raring to go looking at the calendar for the week ahead. There's obviously plenty of things to talk about So we'll go through the usual routine. I'll give you a bit of a summary of the highlights of Expectations of what we think will be the major kind of pivot points of potential Shifts in market sentiment and market direction from a fundamental point of view And then we'll hand you over to my colleague Sam and you can look over the charts both intraday and also for the week ahead But looking at a quick overview you can obtain this chart I did tweet it from my own account yesterday evening, but we'll also issue it in our weekly strategy report But going through there were some of the main highlights here You've got the Empire State Manufacturing Index coming out. That'll be later on this afternoon You've got ECB's draggy and if you'll notice you got ECB president speaking today tomorrow You've then got I think it's Friday possibly he might appear again Wednesday. So he's Booked in for the first three days of the week and this is because Central Portugal there's the ECB forum going on that event in itself has has some Historical significance has been an event before of which has been a platform for some of these heads of central bankers So the likes of Mark Carney will be there other heads of other central banks will also be making appearances So it can be quite key particularly when we're at this juncture now at the moment of Central banks typically turning more dovish given the economic environment and the risks that are apparent and to try and Acetane where they go to next so draggy is going to be one of the key ones. You obviously understand spoke last week Was giving hints towards the potential potential kind of options on the table of further easing so any clarity around that Will be key Otherwise going into Tuesday you get the second Conservative party ballot we'll have a look at that in more detail shortly and we'll we'll see what you guys thought about the Channel for debate that took place yesterday evening, but the main event undoubtedly is going to be Wednesday night I'm going to be delivering that session me and the team here Live via our YouTube channel. So we'll have the fall run into the FMC Rate decision will then stick around will analyze everything happening in real time and then we'll look at the Summary of economic projections. This is why this particular meeting is quite key What's the shape of that new interest rate curve going forward? How dovish do they become and do they come to the point of meeting with that market expectations of potentially? Three rate cuts for the rest of this year and then of course we'll have to press conference as well Then Thursday more central bank news coming out. We've got the Bank of Japan We'll have a look at the expectations for that Shortly, you also got the Bank of England as well coming out So you get three of the major central banks globally coming out the Fed the Bank of Japan the Bank of England and then Friday Arguably one of the most important economic data points. This is when we get the PMI numbers Which of course have been moving south Many into Contractionary territory and hence is providing this pessimism of why central banks need to get ahead of the curve with interest rate cuts And that's going to be all coming out on Friday So plenty of you know, that's just a quick overview lots of things going on But let's just have a look at the charts this morning then we'll go through a couple of headlines and just having a look at that the general setup here Major currency pairs top left euro dollar and cable both are actually flat at the moment And as you can see both have found some support technically Around the low point at the end of trade in the futures market at least that we had last week So just a level of near-term price action to keep an eye on but large reflection of a fairly quiet currency open the dollar index It itself is flat And the bond market although the bunds been creeping up back towards pivot Generally about unchanged on the session at the moment oil as well sitting around its pivot down here at the bottom Down just 15 cents. So again relatively flat. So quite a calm open To proceedings. So let's just get straight into the headlines and what is it that we're looking for For this week ahead and as I said the FMC is really the focal point and so Wednesday night will really be I guess from a overall multi-asset class Market moving direction that could set the tone for the second half of the week Undoubtedly that's going to come from this latest announcement now The Fed chairman says extending expansion on overarching goal No interest rate move expected when officials meet this week But as we know it's not so much about the potential for a rate cut this time It's about then markets a very much price for rate cut going forward into July and then multiple rate cuts thereafter And it's about that dot-plot matrix Where is it at the end of the year where the median dot-plot is placed as to indicate then towards what we feel It's going to be the number of rate cuts bedded in at that point So a couple of charts then with that in mind to show you this is the first this is looking at How expectations have changed and this is looking at the short end of the interest rate curve So federal funds rate futures and it applied probabilities by percentage and you can see here the pink line is the probability of no change and really through all of Pretty much the beginning of the year We were very much expecting that there wasn't going to be any change. Why was that? That's because the Federal Reserve had told us when they shifted back their 2019 view that they were going to do zero The only problem is is that we've had quite a significant breakdown in the trade war in particular and that has made people get much more apprehensive Much more pessimistic about the future economic conditions Whether that being the US targeting Mexico, whether that's the US targeting China and the escalation that we've seen on the back of that that as well coupled with Not spectacular Economic data performance in the US whether that be fairly benign inflationary conditions Retail sales someone and so forth has meant then that the probability of no change has dropped Significantly and so the probability of a cut this being in verse then typically his relationship up now in excess of you know, 80% at this point, so This is quite an interesting thing though is the hot debate between you know, I think markets are Very much primed for the fact that the Fed are gonna sound Dovish the idea though is about how dovish Because markets are priced, you know so far down that avenue and is there gonna be room for almost a hawkish reaction by net result that they don't quite Come all the way to meet markets expectations This is you know one kind of factor which might make them a little bit hesitant as to pull the trigger so quickly and towards leaning towards cutting rates aggressively and this is looking at Basically the history of US interest rate setting This goes back all the way to the 1960s if we look on the far left-hand side what you can see here is This is the basically the interest rate is the line So you can see you know back in the early 80s interest rates in the US were nearly 20% if you remember back in that era and the red little marks Signify when the US economy at that point was in a recession So the main takeaway here is that every time that the Fed have begun this kind of sequence of cutting rates the rate in itself has been always much higher than where it is today So the rate hike cutting sequence of the late 80s early 90s Interest rates were up at kind of 9% if we go back to the the dot-com kind of crash rates were You know six seven percent the financial crisis interest rates were around the five percent and now interest rates as we know Are at two and a half percent so less room To maneuver is the point when it comes to the most blunt instrument Which is utilizing then the kind of mechanics of moving the rate of interest obviously now We have other means in an unconventional sense like quantitative easing liquidity programs and all these types of things But you know quite an interesting thing to see that there's you know, there's less room to move this Which would suggest then that the Fed might be a little bit More of the thinking that really unless it really push comes to shove We do not want to start this cycle which typically very rare for central banks to do this kind of one and done Mentality one cut normally leads to several like an interest rate hiking cycle. It's not just one Usually it's one of a series of moves so Couple of other things to have a look at I mean, this is the the state of the global manufacturing PMIs and this has been quite a Area of focus that markets have latched on to because all three of these lines Covering all the major kind of markets or continents from the US and yellow the eurozone In the blue and then the China ex-Hong Kong the cow in the red have all been moving south fairly consistently and if you look at the Chinese and the European one European one even to a more stronger degree in Contractionary territory and the US is the one that's seen quite a dramatic change of late dipping quite aggressively towards that level at 250.5 so definitely it seems that you know cuts are on the cards. It's more a matter of Timing than anything else as to as to how far and how aggressive they go with this So from a market pricing point of view, what are we expecting for potential rate cut this week? While the the potential for a rate cut at the Fed meeting is currently seen at about 17.5% so Could it happen? Sure. It could happen. I mean almost 20% of the market is priced for that outcome But I'd say it's unlikely to be the case And that very much down to the fact that I think the Fed would want to keep the options on the table and not be seen being so actively Responsive to markets and so that they can still maintain as I said both options and credibility to manage this later down the line Kind of keeping your ammunition in reserve in that respect If we start moving this out before we go to july Then we're looking at Interest rates could be cut the probability then is at 70% So this is very much now priced into the market when the Fed are scheduled to meet at the end of july And then we go out to september Obviously then we start pricing in the second rate cut. So not only would have By market expectations would have exercised this july move With then in september we'll be looking to bed in the second move, which is priced at 55% Looking you know stretching this out and looking at the global central banking kind of situation This is now looking at what markets are priced to the end of the year And you can see here. We're looking at markets are expecting over 70 basis points of cuts From the federal reserve. So this is where we get this idea Of expectations of three rate cuts not forgetting the official communication from the Fed as it stands In their dot plots is currently zero rate cuts Now this is likely very much so to change But I feel it's going to be highly unlikely that it's going to go as aggressive as the market is suggesting here And as a net result of the market's positioning then you might get a short-term knee jerk reaction Of a little bit of a you know, kind of hawkish response where yields might move higher If anything equities might come off dollar might strengthen under these kinds of circumstances Looking elsewhere, obviously the rba is another central bank That's very much alongside the rbnz given their economic situations that have been Moving already or hinting towards more rate cuts The bank of england very different In a sense even though they're going to have their interest rate decision this week very much You know, it's a wait and see mode Plenty believe that you know, if it wasn't for brexit then at this point given inflation moving back to 2.1% Year on year wages looking particularly healthy on a long-term comparison basis Well, actually rates could be could be an argument for them being higher not lower If it wasn't for that huge political risk that's on the table so Mank of england's pretty much flatlining which you would expect subject to probably quite rapid changes Depending on how the political scene unfolds And then the ECB I guess I guess that's probably going to gather steam How much so will be dependent on what draggy has to say in this ECB forum that's going on the first half of the week And then you've got the bank of japan at the back Again expected to be Decreasing rates at some point, but probably not anytime soon is the general Understanding that is shared as a market consensus at this point So yeah a bit of an overview there of what we're looking at obviously the feds going to be absolutely instrumental to market Sentiment and that's going to be wednesday night. So what can often happen? Even though if we go back to the calendar, there are some interesting things happening like Some of the u.s. Data this afternoon like the ECB president speaking Or the second ballot round of the brexit kind of Tory leadership race Ultimately given the importance of that event. It could be a fairly tame first half of the week Because markets really want to hear what is and how far do the fed go before then committing real Capital to work kind of in an intraday short-term environment So maybe from a strategic point of view, maybe a consideration about how you approach Monday, Tuesday, particularly wednesday as the market starts gearing up for that big event Because it could well be that then the second half of the week is where you've got a bit more clarity As to then the market direction overall Okay, that's enough on that. Let's just have a quick overview about a few other headlines I'm sure quite a few of you caught the channel for debate on the Tory leadership A lot of the headlines led similar to this one on bloomberg about Well really two things clashing over dictator brexit. This was kind of referencing One of the candidates dominic rab who talked about suspending parliament so that parliament cannot block A no deal is how strongly he feels about keeping a credible threat to force europe's hand In order to come back then and give a deal Even though I guess most of them are committed to leaving in october That was the most kind of an aggressive threat if you like at really exercising that that route Two other things that were quite obvious here. One was that borris skipped the debate They kept the lectern there and it was just basically empty So he wasn't there to kind of defend himself Jeremy hunt made a pretty good attempt To kind of criticize that saying if he can't appear in front of his fellow colleagues And how's he gonna fare in front of the eu kind of 27 I guess as we know quite strategic on the behalf of the borris camp. He's already so far ahead It's almost like there's more to lose than there is to gain Given the fact that you know, these other candidates are so far behind him and the risk of He's notoriously Bad at sticking to the script and putting his foot in his mouth So better than for the team around him to just take him out of that situation So there's as I understand going to be more nationalized tv debates as this these rounds Eliminate various candidates before we get down to the final two and as we do get down to the final two He will have to make this appearance obviously To get himself over the line, I'm sure the person that came out probably on top Is someone who I feel isn't going to get the parties backing into the final two, but certainly captured I think a lot of the public sentiment when I was looking on social media and that was rory stewart Um, he's definitely taken the opposite ground to the other what four other people that were there Michael gove dominic rab Sajid Javid And jeremy hunt whereas stewart has gone for the whole kind of center ground the compromising angle Definitely taking a lot more of a spin about talking to forage, but talking to labor in the lib Dems That I think did resonate quite well in his honesty I think in the fact that he comes across and he's probably the opposite in personality to say someone like michael gove I think people warmed to but ultimately I don't think the potorio party is going to back him So he might survive the cut this time. I think if anything sajid javid might get the cut I might get eliminated tomorrow But we shall see point being is how much is this is actually moving the pound and as you can see this morning It's not moving the pound at all So as much as this is being dramatized by the national media I actually thought last night's discussions were held in pretty good faith and then no one was really Clashing in my opinion and this doesn't really get interesting until we get into the final two stage and When boris does take the stage does he make an almighty cock up by saying something highly offensive? For example, which then could well flip the whole thing in to say What is looking on the bookie side of things jeremy hunts best opportunity to then potentially Push himself forward into the leading spot. So again, it's entertaining I think it does need to be watched in terms of the public to educate themselves about a bit more of What it is if we did get down this route of voting on a second referendum or a new slap election But from a market moving point of view as I said, it's a non-event until we get down to the final elimination phase As per the timings, this was a good graphic that I saw last week when I was out of the office and on the left hand side Just to refresh your memory So we've had the first ballot that was when we had the the cumulative votes of what the Tory members were voting So if you remember we then have a next vote, which is tomorrow Which is second ballot of MPs for 33 votes is required to progress to the next phase So someone like Rory Stewart only got 19 votes in the first round But given the fact that several candidates have already been removed Mathematically then the numbers for other MPs have got to go somewhere So he technically could get over the line But he was the one that was kind of lower down last time We then go through and actually this week then we could have Wednesday and Thursday further ballots until we get down to the final two that remain And so this is the process that this is going to go through As I said the latter is probably going to be when it's more interesting This this graphic I will share it in the chat again. You probably did see me retweet it anyway Last week, but I thought this was you know, these are the reasons why The infographics that we share in trading live or on twitter are particularly useful because here on the left hand side you've got a timeline of You know, what are the specific dates that you need to be aware of? Who are the candidates and the projected number of MPs that are backing them? Again, this is important because the process that we're going through of the ballot system Is where MPs at the conservative party vote It's then when it gets to the final two that that goes to the 160 000 grassroots conservative members Who then decide who the number one candidate is to then take on the role of prime minister So understanding the MPs numbers is important Understanding what the bookies are saying. I think is also important because it gives you an idea of about how much markets generally as well a price For general outcomes. So obviously, you know the borris one's quite interesting to monitor And then obviously being aware of as well the aggressiveness of the stance between You know, kind of a no deal brexit I guess after yesterday's conversations and debate rab being the most Down to the softer brexit Rory strew up being of that that side And then the impact of the pound and the rationale. So within one graphic You've got a pretty good comprehensive wrap-up of all the different elements You'd need to be aware of from a trading point of view, which I think is particularly useful The other UK headline I don't think this is particularly surprising British companies look set to cut their investment by the most in 10 years in 2019 You know, one of the things that we've had actually in UK economic data is there has been periods of surprising strength Where economic data has been relatively resilient Now a lot of this was at the beginning of the year when there was a lot of reported front loading in order to build inventories ahead of them creating a short term degree of demand To get ahead of the march Deadline at the risk of a no deal and the WTO tariffs that could have meant However, that got delayed. That's now October. So it's kind of phased out again And so the point being is for companies at the moment There's such uncertain environment the fact that there's no real definitive Dates because they've been so subject to being moved It's all adds to if you're, uh, you know a a small medium-sized business Uncertainty about the future Obviously consumers and businesses start to lose confidence And this is the situation that you find yourself in which then Gradually tightens the screws on the UK economic performance overall So not that surprising hence the reason why it's not impacting the pound But it's this type of thing where you know, the UK economy is going to slowly suffer Over the coming months. I think that's a that's almost a certainty Moving off the UK quick look at other things oil prices as I said relatively stable Slightly negative having just gone through pivot at the moment in futures I understand while I was off the desk last week, there was a lot of Focus in the Gulf in particular on the Straits of Hamoose given the Saudi tankers that were attacked reportedly by In your connections to Iran. So definitely that area Geographically still needs monitoring very intently. But the other thing that markets are focused on this morning is about Saudi Arabia And the idea that they're expressing hopes that OPEC and its allies will agree to extend production cuts Into the second half at a meeting that will probably take place in early July. So Saudi Arabia still again pushing for the fact that you know them being the dominant force within that OPEC kind of collection of export nations That they're going to get everyone else over the line in an agreement In order to continue to support the underlying price of crude I think if you think about it from a Saudi perspective and for a lot of these oil producing nations If you know this chart here Is the absolute worst case scenario if you're an oil producing nation with a high gearing To the sale of oil. So, you know the beauty of course for the US is that yes They can pump production up at record levels because they got such a diversified economy. They can almost Make generate money from selling even with the price at a lower point given as well the break even For the production values, but also satisfying them having a fairly Low price for the middle class for the consumption of gas at the pump as a price as well So definitely helps the US but deterioration in global demand Definitely means that for these guys, you know, it gets particularly troublesome for Saudi Arabia But you know as we know they need to fulfill this idea of fulfilling their commitments in the long term in regard to The vision 2030 so they're looking to get ahead of the curve So I would imagine they would be able to twist the arms of the necessary players that be whether that be even Even with this geopolitical fallout with Iran But getting them in as part of the deal and when with the russians on board as well, which is obviously critical the other thing that's come out Trump obviously particularly Vocal on twitter over the weekend, whether it was his criticism of city khan over the various violent Attacks stabbing and shootings that are happening in london But more interestingly about Again weaponizing this idea of the stock market And I think this is a pretty tactical And a pretty clever move from trump because we know that Obviously a stock market crash can quite Often be accountable to his own doing but if he can distance this and talk about that if it does go down Then it's not his fault. He's almost Safeguarding his position already where he can discount any stock market downside that is to do to other external factors out of his control Like for instance the federal reserve if the fed hold firm Which I think is more the right decision to do and they just say potentially we're going to cut once This year but keep the optionality about potentially doing more should the economic data warrant such action I think that's the most prudent central bank way of going around things But the market might not like that and if the market starts to sell off, you know You can expect donald trump to be criticizing your own pal and everyone else To say the same thing. So they're typical trump. I would say more of this is likely to come I'm pretty sure The bank of japan the other You know, we talked about the bank thing and briefly bank of japan Majority of economists see more easing as corridors next move But definitely not seeing any action as far as this interest rate decision Is concerned So unanimous view on on wall street that the boj won't act at this particular meeting But again any wording around the future course of action and what would warrant that action Is going to be what the markets will take its q1 to trade one of the things here There's a real difficulty for the bank of japan Is that if let's say the federal reserve does start cutting rates That means that the u.s. Dollar weakens and so by default the yen strengthens And the yen strengthening generally speaking Is a negative factor then for the japanese economy Also for the export names to operate within that Economy as well in the nikkei And so is it the case that the bank of japan could be forced into taking This these steps to cut rates Given the fact that then to counteract what would be naturally a strengthening currency on the back of dollar weakness and fed cuts So yeah, that's it. I mean not going to go on any longer than that. So again, that's the summary of what's going on so As I said fomc is the main thing happening on wednesday night Me and the team will be here throughout the evening. You can join us on live on youtube It's got a chat function so you can ask lots of questions Central bank decisions boj boe The the leadership ballot for the conservatives So we should be able to whittle that down have a bit more clarity on who's going to really at the end Going up against boris johnson at this point looking still the most likely it's going to be jeremy hunt But could rory strut pull off a bit of a surprise. We'll see And then the biggest data points arguably are going to come on friday when we get the various different PMI numbers ranging from japan australia Through the eurozone in the morning and then the us into the afternoon All right That is it from me Let me hand you over to sam. He can come on and give you a bit of a look at the charts for today in the week ahead Thanks very much All right guys. Hope everyone has had a good weekend. Just having a quick lookover. We'll start with the The currencies is the the pound actually just coming on a bit of pressure here through friday's low 126 28 traded on the on the futures and we're back down to almost the The lows of the year Yet again, we had a bit of a recovery on the first retest if you like of this whole area But not too far now from that low that we had back on The 31st of may so slight recovery back up to 128 failed to get above their multiple times and And we're now back down to those lows after some dollar strength that we saw on friday across the board So just having a quick look at this you can just see If we were to get a break of the yearly low, then you are really going back here to levels from 2017 And and beyond that really back to 2016 lows So we'll be keeping an eye on just this this level in general yet again Just coming into the picture along with that longer term trend line to the upside Certainly, you can see the the strength of this break through 127 11 127 handle that we got on friday. It's already been retested Obviously quite a fair bit above where we're trading now But should we get any retracement this week? And of course that could happen with the fed and the bank of england A good short from from those levels could be of interest for sure having a look at the euro Again putting this on a longer term chart We've already I guess had that trend line break, which has been so prominent this year And just going back you can see any recovery we have we then get a decent push Lower just multiple times here does think you know you can start to say where we're going to get a Further recovery not to be the euro Breaking down again if we just have a quick look on the the 240 minute you can see that trend line Really starting from The double bottom that we had of this year We've had that breakthrough a bit of a retest and we're now back down on what is a pretty key zone Was the low that we had back in the morning of the the sip Pretty much the the lows that we've got now failing to to break that twice so far So worth keeping an eye on and also you've got just below there, which is pretty much the low of the the session so far Which was the area of previous resistance on the third So keeping an eye on that and similar to pound if we were to get any retracement Over the coming days to the breakdown level that we had on friday 1 13 41 and a half in the futures Would be obviously one to to keep an eye on if we were to have a strong week to the downside that double bottom Obviously worth keeping an eye on and if we were to break through that we can see the last time We were trading the these levels was back in 2016 as well where we traded as lower down as 111 So worth keeping a close eye on that low the year if we are to see another leg down here For the euro against the dollar s&p has recovered strongly from The the the low that we had back on the 8 for march really strong push higher there were now If we just put the the 200 day moving average on that's worth keeping an eye on still as it has actually as decent support From the push lower that we had from the beginning of may Although we did chop through it. You can see we're now Nicely above it. So still probably worth having that on to the upside Next key levels. I mean above where we're trading other than the recent high that we had back on the the 11th Just a bit above there. You could argue 29 20 is quite a key level Historically and in terms of we had good support back here in september last year resistance turn support in that the The push to the next all-time high And the first real test of that on the 11th So I'll be keeping a closer eye on that as well with the fed might be worth just for A couple of these markets euro dollar included and just holding back and waiting until wednesday As well before really getting too stuck in in this market But it does seem for now that the sentiment is back towards the upside. However last week was A five-day week, of course where there was not one naught point five Not one naught point five percent return either way to the upside or the downside. So very slow Weak and I would expect the same in the build up to the fed having a look at T notes You can see if I just make this chart a bit smaller just the importance of the the levels we're trading at Just drawing a simple horizontal line. You can see going back here to october 2016 We've just tried to break a couple of times above the the high from september as well Worth as well just having a trend line on here, which has been respected I'll just draw this on Last week you can see starting here from the low of december 2016 We broke through this december 2017 before finding strong resistance Later that month just before the beginning of 2018 and we just tested that again as well So keeping a watchful eye on this trend line a break above that could obviously lead to a further push However, you would you would expect at least a bit of a recovery In this market as we have gold just went after a strong push of recent times. We've had a double top You can see that previous high that we had of the year back in late february Has also reacted strongly. We've come back lower as well Back into 1340 so nicely above 1300 really strong breakout that we had a week or well at the beginning of the The month and end of last month So keeping a watchful eye on this as well and this that that higher level We've also got these trend lines from the multi-year highs to to keep a Tab on if we do push on you can see that would probably come a fair bit above where we're trading Looks like it would come in around 1377 so to the upside keeping A level marked up around there, but for now again just Probably be impatient early on in this market before getting involved in it in the the remainder of the week looking at oil remains To be seen where this market goes shorter term, but certainly these lows around 51 dollars And as a zone if you like of also the low that we had back at the beginning of the year 51 71 Is important so break below that then yeah fine. We can get a further push down what we've had two goes Or trying that rejecting And then we've sort of recovered a touch just over a dollar obviously helped a bit by the The oman situation gulf oman situation that we had Thursday morning To the upside when would I feel a bit more comfortable that this market is going to go higher? Well back above 55 dollars The high that we had on the 10th of june the low that we had on the 8th of march coming in around 55 13 back Above that then I would be a bit more Assured that we are going to have a further recovery previous lows as well in the mix Should we get above that closer to 57 obviously that's a long way away to the downside if the 51 dollar handle breaks and closes below I imagine there'll be a quicker move down to 50 and 49 10 where we have had previous resistance So that could obviously act as support for that market quick look over another couple Currency pairs ozzy dollar on key support looking back here. You can see we're just tested the The lows that we had back at the end of may the flash crash Low of the third of january an obvious target should this break through a couple of times In currencies we've had this recovery where the dollar started to weaken the touch But in truth it's just given people a better opportunity to get short again Looking at the the recent high that we had back on the 7th of june marking that up It's just a failed test of the 8th of march low To get back above and you know, this would obviously be a nice profit target for people to look at So I wouldn't be getting too short too aggressively unless we do break and close below Maybe looking more Intra day. Can we get back up to any of these previous levels? 69 20 Or even 69 64 previous support levels on the future Futures that could offer good resistance going forward Also looking at the yen just to wrap things up for a quick look over How we stand At the moment the yen you can see here It's just been testing a recent Previous high and just as a level for the whole year It's been really significant from the beginning of the year back end of january To the breakdown in in february that we had the retest in may We finally then did break through the last day of the month and we've already had a test of good support there So keeping an eye on that as a as a gauge this week of sentiment You've got to imagine if stocks were to push to the upside the yen isn't going to come under a bit of pressure there And we could look for this to really Break down as well. Quick look over how the DAX has opened relatively flat Push lower came back pretty much exactly where we were and I think it will be a quiet one today You've got bigger things to come this week As we just have a quick look over that calendar one more time. Obviously you've got ecbs draggy speaking today tomorrow as well But the main events very much going to be around brexit and the conservative party second vote tomorrow And then any more if needed on the wednesday thursday But also the the decisions the interest rate decisions out of the third bank of japan And the bank of england before some important data out of europe in the u.s On friday, so today's very much a more range bound day not not one to get too involved in As we come into what could be a busy finish And end to the week any questions as usual, please do let us know But I hope you'll have a good trading day and good week ahead