 Hey everyone, welcome to this week's video update for pro members. Today is Friday, February 19th. Market just closed. Taking a look at the S&P 500. A little bit of red, not nothing crazy here. We did hit all-time highs back on Tuesday of this week, but we've kind of pushed lower since then. Now, in relation to what I think is going to happen from here, I don't think we're going to fall apart. I think this is just kind of a minor pullback on our way to new all-time highs. I think this is going to continue. We've been talking about this really since after the election that I thought we would just continue to push and hit new all-time highs, and that's certainly what's happened. I think it'll continue to happen, at least in the foreseeable future. What's interesting today is, and actually the last couple days, is if you look at the implied volatility, I've got two different ones on the screen here. One is our normal comparison looking back over the last year, so IV comparing itself to itself over the last year, and the other one is a shorter duration one, so this is just looking back 21 trading days or about a month. What's interesting is, even in the wake of this little sell-off the last couple days, we've seen a pretty decent collapse in implied volatility. Now, actually, that's not true. We're looking at the ES. You got to look at SPX. It's not that drastic, but at the same time, even with the market selling off, we are seeing a little contraction in implied volatility. I do look at this as just a minor pullback, I would say next week. We rip into new highs again, but we do have short delta. If this thing does fall apart, our portfolio will benefit from that. We're about one-to-one on our short delta versus our theta ratio when you beta weighted to spy. I wouldn't mind a little downside. In fact, that would pop the IV up and give us some more trading opportunities, but keep in mind, this is not a normal all-time high, meaning, I mean, look at the VIX. The VIX is over 20. The VIX is we're continuing to hit new all-time highs, and the VIX is still staying above 20 here. If we look at this going back a long time, I mean, back in 2017, which is just a brutal year, the VIX was hovering, we're grinding higher hitting new all-time highs. The VIX was bouncing around between 10 and 12 a lot of the year. This is a much better uphill climb with the market where the implied volatility is nice. There's still a lot of juice in these premiums, which is good for trading options. So just keep that in perspective. And then the other thing is, even though it seemed like a little bit of a down week, we're still just barely off all-time highs. If you look at year-to-date, the S&P is currently up about 5.5%. NDX, the NASDAQ is up 7%. A year-to-date, the Russell is up 16.5%. So still very positive for the year, and I think that's going to continue. So that's just a quick look at the markets. Before we jump into the alerts, let's take a look at day trading. Another good week for day trading. Mighty 90s strategy had 11 trades, a little over $1,600 in profits with an excellent winning percentage. Nice bounce back after last week, which is a red week with a pretty low winning percentage bounce back nicely in the Mighty 90s. Didn't take any pairs trades this week. And then on the runners, booked $849. So not as good as the previous two weeks, which were multiple four-figure type weeks, but still green nonetheless. So total for the week plus a little over $2,500, which puts us almost at $48,000 since we started tracking these back at the end of August. So day trading continues to do awesome and it's a lot of fun. So we'll be streaming all next week as well and the following week as well. So hope to see you in there. All right, let's take a look at the alerts. So starting with the 15th, 16th excuse me, the 15th was a holiday. So shortened four-day week. Starting with DE, we had this long put vertical. And actually, that was our initial strategy. We ended up converting it a couple of cycles ago back into a short call vertical. So we went ahead and rolled that from Feb to March. This was kind of a fat finger mistake by me. I accidentally rolled this to the next weekly cycle with 10 days instead of out to March. And so what I did is I just kept it and said, you know, we'll just give it some time as it gets closer to expiration. Again, we'll roll it out. It actually moved lower for us and we ended up rolling it again this week. And so I'll go through that when we get to that alert. Apple rolling adjusting trade did a lot of our rolls. We still had several positions left into Feb. So we needed to roll those out. In this case, with Apple, we rolled this from Feb to April. April had 59 days. So we're under that 60 days to expiration. So instead of rolling out to March, we just skip March, roll directly out to April. So let's take a look at Apple. Oops, Apple, Apple, Apple. So actually seeing some downside in Apple. If we look at a chart first the last few weeks we have seen, that's the year today. Let me get on the yearly here. Come on, there we go. All right, so Apple, you know, hit a high of a little over 145. It's down in the one below 130 now. So that having that short Delta in the last couple of weeks in Apple has been good. So we rolled this out and we're up about about 100 bucks almost since we did this last roll. But this is one of those positions that we're keeping on for the short Delta exposure. Next trade was Rut. Did a open iron duck and Rut did this one with 17 days to expiration. Just adding some ducks as we saw movements down in the market to get a little bit extra credit, a little bit further away from the current price. So we took a lake. If we take a look, excuse me, at Rut, Rut's up 2% today. Pretty close to where we put it on, not even no P&L since we've put this on. But we've got at this point, we've now got 14 days to expiration. So we got a couple weeks before this one expires. Next trade, DIA, rolling adjusting trade. So this is another one of our short Delta plays. Rolled this from Feb out to April again, Skip March adjusted those strikes accordingly. So if you take a look at DIA, you can see it's pretty close to where we put it on prices hanging out right here right in range. But we got a lot of room to the upside if we do get a little bit of a sell off in the market. Next trade here, Twilio. So we opened up a post earnings short put vertical in Twilio. Twilio opened well above the expected move after its earnings announcement. So just like we teach in the course, it's a very high probability chance that price is going to kind of stay steady to higher. And so we wanted to do some type of bullish play with a, you know, a $400 plus stock. We're not just going to buy calls, they're a little bit expensive. Selling naked puts is a little bit expensive. So doing a short put vertical fits the bill for the portfolio size that we're using for the alerts. And so that's what we did here, a short put vertical. So take a look at Twilio. What's interesting is so they announced their earnings and then the next day they come out and say they're issuing another billion dollars in stock, which is interesting. Why wouldn't they do that during the earnings announcement? I don't know. But that sent the stock down a little bit today. So it's a little bit out of our range. So really, I mean, you know, you got a position size, these that are defined risk for with a size that you say, okay, if this thing goes bad, if it really goes against me, I'm willing to take full max loss on this, you know, it's defined, you're defining your risk at order entry. But what I would say is, you know, we may, we may exit early. I mean, this is kind of, this would be my line in the sand is kind of that 420 level, really, the top of the price of where, where, where it the top price of that day before earnings is kind of my line in the sand. So if it closes below that level, it starts getting below that 420 level, we'll probably just close it out instead of taking max loss. But I would say there's still a decent chance that this thing's going to bounce. And we could potentially still book a profit on it. So got to play the probabilities and let it play out. Next trade. ES. So we got this long put vertical, another one of our short Delta plays got down to one day of expiration on this one. So went ahead and rolled that out to 57 DTE, taking a look at ES down about 11, 11 points today. But pretty close to where we where we rolled it. So right inside the range, looking for some more downside to benefit that one. Next trade, DE. So this is the second roll we did in DE this week. Remember, we accidentally rolled it out to the weeklies. So in this case, now we had eight days to exp, expiration, we went ahead and rolled it out to extend duration. Plus, John Deere had earnings coming up. And we were over 50% of max profit. So what happened with DE pre earnings is it's sold off pretty good, allowed us a chance to kind of lock in that 50% of max profit. We rolled it out to the next cycle. Unfortunately, after earnings, this thing really rallied, we actually tried to put on a post earnings play, but the options were just a little bit wide. And, and, you know, I put it on and it just kind of ran away. So missed an opportunity to get in. But it, you know, when you have options as wide as they were, especially at the open, you can't, you don't really want to chase and try to pay up for those. So I just put my price in. And if I said, you know, and I was doing this live in front of our day trading community. And I said, you know, if price comes to me, I'll get filled. If not, I'll, I'll, I'm not, I'm not willing to chase this one. And sure enough, it just ripped higher. So did not get in to participate in that post earnings play, but we're still holding our, our short Delta play in, in DE. Roku opening trade. So it did an earnings iron duck in Roku. It's just one day to expiration. So we put these on right before the earnings announcement. Roku opened up pretty close to where it, where it closed. So not much movement. And then later in the day, it started to sell off. I thought we had a chance at a duck head and then it just ripped higher. So we ended up booking beak profit on this. So a small profit on that earnings iron duck in Roku, eBay, rolling, justing trade. So this was another post earnings play. In this case, eBay is a low price stock. It's only, you know, 60, 60 ish dollars. So we did a post earnings long call where we just bought in the money calls. And so to kind of recap what we did, well, let me go over this trade and then I'll recap what we did. So we don't usually roll calls, but in this case, I still am anticipating higher prices in eBay. And so we had one set of calls that we're expiring today. So we just, we just rolled those out, extended duration, paid, paid a tiny debit, paid 47 cents to do that. And, and we still have our other calls with, which still have seven days. So now we've got 60 calls with seven days to expiration. We've got 60 calls with 14. We've already booked some profits on one set of calls. I think it was a 58 and a half last week. So if we take a look at eBay, let's take a look at the chart first. eBay. So eBay announced earnings here. This was the expected move. It opened up above the expected move, kind of came down, kind of hit this, hit this kind of price level here, bounce back up. And it's just been holding above this expected move, holding, holding, holding, came back down two, three, four, five times, right to this expected move line now closed, you know, right at it today. So next week, if this thing, you know, starts to fall apart, we'll probably just close those out. But I'm anticipating that we still get a bounce. I want to see us break above the, the all time highs and the highs that it hit right after earnings. So we'll see if that happens, but we've, we've got a couple sets of calls here. And so, you know, if it gets up to that 65 level with both sets, you know, hoping to book another eight, seven, eight hundred dollars, but we'll see what happens. If it does fall apart, we'll just take them off. And again, you know, we put these on small enough so that we're willing to take kind of full loss of this thing really falls apart or goes against us. And anytime you do defined risk, you really want to have that state of mind that, that, hey, I need to position size this in a way that if I take, take max loss, that's kind of my stop that, you know, that's my, that's my, that's my max pain that I can take. And so that's how we're position sizing these next trade SPY. So we did a vertigo in SPY. And this is the closing of that trade ended up taking a loss on this one. So yesterday, as the price was moving down, I was actually looking to get out for close to a scratch or book a little profit and then price really just bounced. And I thought me, I thought we may get a little bit of a continuation lower today, which as I showed you, we certainly did. Unfortunately, that came later in the day. And, you know, this is the last day of trading and I didn't, and those in the theta really starts to decay on these quickly. So we ended up just taking this off, took a loss, we had, we waited towards the end of the day, we may have gotten out with a scratch, certainly a smaller loss, but you know, obviously that's hindsight. You can't, you can't trade like that. So ended up taking a loss on that one, but we'll look to, you know, if we get some more implied volatility contraction, a little bit more up movement, we'll look to put on some more vertigos next week. I'm looking at, you know, I was looking through a lot of different stocks to see if there's any opportunities in stocks with higher implied volatility in the front week versus some, some later dated options. And there's, there really just wasn't many options available. And so, you know, we'll look at SPY or an index next week to see if we can find an opportunity to get some more vertigos on the ones that we've traded so far since the class. When we've put those on, there hasn't been a lot of movement when we had those positions on. And so we've still booked small profits, but you know, you get some, you get some big movements after you put those on and you can, you can get some profits pretty quick. So we'll, we'll continue to trade those. So it continues to be a high probability play. This one just did not work out for us. Next trade, opening trade, weekly double calendar. So we added a weekly double calendar in SPX today. So let's take a look at SPX. We've got a, yeah, so here's this. So I did move this a little bit. Now price has moved down, but I also skewed this a little bit so that price was a little bit lower than center to give us a little bit more room to the upside because like I've been saying, I think there's a little bit more upside into next week. So I wanted to give us a little, a little bit more of a buffer if that does come to fruition. But we'll book this closer to expiration or if obviously if it busts out of our range, we have an exit criteria to get out at that point as well. While we're here on SPX though, I'll show you, we also have an iron duck. Price is hanging out right here in the beak. This expires to 25. So still a decent chance that this thing could come down in the head if we do get some downside action in the markets. So we'll see what happens there in SPX. Next trade, my computer's not freezing up on me. Got a little spinning, there we go. SPX and then ZB. Oh, yeah. So we got to, we have this short strangle in ZB. We were really close a couple different times of getting out, getting out of this trade with a profit. And then the bottom kind of fell out of bonds. And so we just, we went ahead and rolled our calls down today. The cycle had 35 days left. So we just stayed in the same cycle with, with 35 days, we just simply rolled our calls down from 170 down to 164. So if we take a look at ZB, I mean, down another 0.81% today. So I mean, look at this slide that we've seen in bonds. You know, there's a couple times here and here that we almost got out of this thing. We ended up rolling it for another cycle. Obviously in hindsight, I wish we'd have closed that out because we, now we're still battling, battling the bonds, but I would say eventually these things are going to bounce sooner rather than later. And that'll benefit us. Now we are inverted here. Now keep in mind, when you look at this risk profile graph, it's showing, you know, under the zero line, but that's because we already, we booked the profits on those 70, 170 calls that we took off. So the, the Analyze tab does not reflect that. But what we're really looking for is a move back to center. So if we get a little bounce in bonds, then we'll roll this out. We'll probably un-invert because these, these start to get a little bit illiquid. If you go that far in the money. So we'll probably in un-invert and then just continue to manage this for a couple more cycles and try to get back to profitability. So that's the plan in bonds. Next trade, quite a few trades this week for a four-day work week. Roku closing trades. So this is that earnings iron duck that we closed out booked to be profit. We probably could have been safe just letting it expire, but no reason to take the risk. Don't want to deal with the after-hours shenanigans. Remember on, on, on when options expire, the exchanges actually have 90 minutes after the market close to, to take institutional orders. And so that can actually throw the price. And if it comes and it hits between your, so if we have our duck here, you know, if you land in this area or this area, you're going to get assigned. Now price was way up here in the beak, but you know, had it after hours come down here, there's nothing we can do about it. And it happens to end up in that little area. You get assigned stock, you got to hold it over the weekend, all these other options expire, you're stuck with, you know, short stock that you can't do anything about until the open. So there's, there's no reason to take that risk. So we just closed it out booked beak profit on the trade. And then right after that, with Roku, we also, Roku kind of, like I said, started to push lower and then really rally later later in the day, looking like it's going to have some more upside. And so we added a long call diagonal, wanted to add, I was looking for an opportunity to add some more longs in our portfolio to kind of balance out our, our short delta. And so Roku was the victim of choice. So if you take a look at our long call diagonal, we've been doing some of these lately, some of them leading up to earnings in this case, Roku just announced earnings, but it had a good IV differential where you see in the front week, actually when I put this on, this was higher than this, the front week was higher than the back. So that, that always benefits. So 14 days out in the front week, 21 days in the back week, looking for a little upside, you know, risking again, on these defined risk, risking 453. So if this thing falls apart, that's our, that's what our, that's what we're willing to risk. This thing goes up and let's say, you know, here in seven, 10 days or so, this thing pushes up, we could book near a hundred percent profit, even just well within the expected move. So that is the plan in Roku. So we'll see if we get a little upside action, you know, it had earnings, just, it's been so strong and just had this little dip and then bounce right back up. So seeing if we can get a continuation, if we get up to, you know, just new highs, kind of that 500 level, we should book about a hundred percent profit on the, on the trade. So that's the plan. All right. So those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of our other positions. I already mentioned ES. We've got Natty Gas. We are profitable on Natty Gas after all rolls and adjustments. I'm hoping next week, we just get a little bit move into center. And if we can do that, we will, so $600 profit on this piece, that's basically break even. So we're basically up about $140 total, after all rolls and adjustments. So I'm just seeing if we can get a little bit of down movement back to center and book a little bit more profit before we take this off. You can kind of think of this almost as a straddle. I mean, the strikes aren't exactly the same. There's a little bit of width between the 2.8 and the 2.9. But if you're, if you're managing a straddle, kind of best practices is to close those out at about 25, 30% of max profit. And so we're pretty close to that. And if we get back to center, we will go ahead and just book this one. I mentioned ZB, I mentioned Apple, Airbnb, another long call diagonal. Now this one's leading up to earnings. Earnings are on 225 after market close. So early next week, we'll be taking this one off. We had this up move and then a little pullback is when we got into this, hoping for a little continuation up into earnings. Still might get that. You know, we've got, we've got a few days to get there. So we may get a pop into earnings and be able to salvage a little profit in that one, but we'll see what happens. Amazon, Amazon late day sell off today. It's been strong. Even with the market being weak, weak all week, Amazon has been strong. But today, just kind of a late day sell off, we've got an iron duck in Amazon. And you can see prices still pretty close to where we put it on. So we still have a huge buffer to the downside here. About a, still about 85% probability of profit. I thought we were just going to continue higher and close out for a beak profit early. But with this sell off, we've still got a chance at a duck head. This one expires next Friday. So we will see if we get a little downside. It'd be nice to hit a couple duck heads next week. I mentioned DEDIA. This is one of our short call verticals here. I think I already showed that one. DKNG, another long, long call diagonal. This is another one leading up into earnings, earnings on 226 before market. So we'll be out of this on 225 as well. Same with Airbnb. So you've got a big bounce in DKNG today. Again, this thing kind of pulled back. We were hoping for an extension higher. It did just kind of chop around down to sideways on us, but got a big pop today. If we can get a continuation into early next week, I should be able to book a profit. We're up just, well, we're about breakeven on the trade right now. eBay, I mentioned IWM, a long put vertical here. We're up about $160 on this one since we did our last roll, looking for some downside to benefit that. LIFT, this is another post earnings play. In this one, we just did a long call, just down slightly 29 bucks on that one at this point. See if we can get some more upside action. Again, this was a post earnings open above the expected move, did sell off right back down to kind of the peak pre earnings and has held that, held that bounced and bouncing again. So if we get another little push early next week, we'll book profits on that one. QQQ, another short delta play, short call vertical, up about 187 since we did our last roll on that one. Another short delta play, I mentioned Roku, Rut, I think I mentioned we've got this Iron Duck. SMH, we've got a short strangle here. This thing's been pretty strong hanging out in the upper end of the range, looking for some downside to get back into center on our short strangle there. Tesla, we've got a duck. Tesla's shown a little bit of weakness, not the mighty Tesla that it was just a few weeks ago, but we are in prime position here, right dead center. Now we got a week, so that can happen, but if we end up in this area, hopefully we'd book a little duck head. Max profit on that is 615. Twilio, I mentioned XLK, another short delta position. This is a long put vertical, up about 180 some since we did that last roll. So we could use some more downside to benefit that. And then lastly, Zoom, another bullish play. And this one's another long call diagonal leading up into earnings, which is three ones. We got a little bit longer duration on this one. We're pretty much at break even on that trade, but if we can get a little upside action, should be able to book some profits, you know, looking for about into earnings on Zoom Zoom. So those are all the alerts, those are all the positions. Hope everybody has a fantastic weekend. We will see you next week.