 this is Global Connections. I'm Jay Fidel. Let's take a look at the Moscow concert shooting a few days ago. Was it ISIS? Was it Ukraine? Was it someone else? And how does it change the calculus in Russia and everywhere else? For this discussion, we have Dr. Rupati Kandekar, a global geopolitical strategist. She's going to help us understand what happened and why it happened. Welcome to the show, Rupati. Hello, Ajay. And thank you for having me. And let's discuss this Moscow terror attack now. It goes from country to country, this terror attacks, which we're talking about, Jay. And last time we spoke about how Middle East terrorism would affect the U.S. And we have to program on how terror is affecting Russia. So 137 confirmed that the number is far, far higher, like you said. And Jay, when we talk about this, Russia has consequently, subsequently put Ukraine on the radar, right? So let's start with describing what happened in this attack, Jay, that it was in the Caucasus City Hall that we see and there was supposed to be a concert by a euro rush known as the picnic. Now this is the concert hall and it has a seating capacity of 6200 people. And it is very difficult because it's a Friday night. People are relaxed, they're going out for a normal evening. And this thing happened which stuns the world. And Jay, when we saw that it has, this hall was packed to its capacity, but it was not yet filled. And it has three levels, this city hall. And we had four armed militants with automatic guns. And the shooting took place mainly in the foyer region of the city hall. And that is when we see that they were shooting at point blank range and they were targeting unarmed civilians. This entire act of targeting civilians, Jay, is what hurts the most and what terrorists thrive on, like we have always said time and again. It is the propagation of terror. When you don't, you're not prepared, they're not in the war zone. These are only civilians who are going for a concert. Israeli is going for a music concert. So this targeting unarmed civilians is real terrorism, Jay. We are witnessing real terrorism, real time. And Russia put the blame of this on Ukraine saying that first was ISIS. And we have news that the United States had warned Putin about impending terror attack. But like we know, there are so many warnings and there are so many intimidations given, but we don't take them seriously or rather we think that it is part and parcel of the proceedings. And when something like this happens, really, that is when we understand that this was a real threat and which materialized. So that's it. And then these four unarmed terrorists escaped in a car near the Brian's region bordering Belarus and Ukraine. And this was the car that the Russian forces intercepted and the Russian authorities said there was an opening created for them at the Ukraine border for them to enter. Kiev vehemently denies any involvement in this because they know what was going to come out of this. And when the terrorist was caught, they have all four of them were caught, presented in the trials just a few hours ago, and we saw them bashed and bruised. And rightly so, they're going to be interrogated. And like you said, there's no death penalty in Russia, but they would wish they had death penalty. Okay, well, let's let's let's examine what happened here. Why is ISIS doing a terror attack in the center of Russia on civilians at a concert in the Crocus Crocus concert hall? Why are people coming from southern Russia? I guess it was Tashkent. Why are they coming from Tashkent? Why are they coming from ISIS? ISIS K, which actually has its headquarters in Afghanistan, why are they coming to do violence in Russia? Are they at war with Putin or Russia? What is it? This is not the first time that ISIS has targeted Russia and Russia continuously indulges with them in the northernmost area, Islamic groups in the north, in the Crocs region in Russia, and he has got disputes with them. But when we talk about ISIS being involved head on front with them, the radicalization of ISIS and aim and objective of ISIS does not give a clear cut picture as why they would attack Russia at this juncture. There is no immediate trigger for them to do this attack and such an overt attack on Russia. So this was this was stunning. And it was a terror attack on a liberal country. What's the relationship between Putin's fake election only a few days ago and this? Do you think there's a connection? In other words, these guys said, well, he wants to make a fake fake election and elect himself, you know, for another term for, you know, for another term until I think 2030. We'll show him a few things. Do you think there's any relationship between one and the other? His elections say he is a surah dictator in Russia and he's elected 2036. So I don't think this would have any effect on his elections and present a bad or good picture of Putin. He is not a democratically elected leader. He rules by law by his law. So getting votes and garnering votes and pleasing the people is not his cup of tea. Any which ways he does what he wants. And this terror attack would mean just that he strengthens himself more because nationalism is what plays in communist countries or, you know, close them up close countries, the patriotism and this only brings the people closer to Putin. They're not going to distance himself themselves from Putin. I say these four, and I guess I will have to assume at least for the moment that the principal actors were only four from ISIS, came from Tashkent, had weapons, had inflammable liquids they used to burn the concert hall and effectively destroy it. And so the people who were wounded or who weren't wounded, a lot of them were killed when the roof fell in on the concert hall. It must have been quite a time. Can you imagine being there? It sounds like they came, they shot automatic weapons, they burned the place down, and they were trying to create as much terror, as much violence, as much outrageous murder as they possibly, possibly could. And in that way, you know, it does remind you of October 7th, doesn't it? The idea is to create the most awful, atrocious murder that you possibly can. Is that the way it works these days? Exactly, this radicalization of ISIS, this tactic that they use now, these were not military people, these were not military establishments, these were not sensitive points of the government, they were just a city hall playing a concert and normal people going out for an evening after the day of work or enjoying themselves at leisure of citizens of civilians. And that is when terror strikes and that is where it hurts the government most, because you can't protect every civilian we had discussed that there is no line of defense against terrorism. When you have four unarmed people attacking a hall packed full of 6,200 people, just check the asymmetry. It is really difficult to protect and shield every civilian from such an attack. It could be anyone, it could have been one of them, it could have bought a ticket and blown themselves up in the hall. So they have so many means and ways to go about. Yeah, and it is also reminiscent of the Beslan school siege and hostage crisis and massacre that took place in southern Russia, I guess in Chechnya in 2004, just 20 years ago. And when the reporters say this is the worst terrorist violence in Russia in the past 20 years, you ask yourself, what happened 20 years ago? Well, the Beslan school siege and hostage crisis and massacre happened in 2004, just 20 years ago, in which thousands of people were involved, including hundreds and hundreds of school children, elementary school children, which was really shocked the conscience kind of violence. And although there were those who said that Putin himself created that to use as a provocation, a provocation to consolidate his power. And indeed, his reaction to that enhanced his power. I'm not sure that he was the one who created the crisis, but he certainly took advantage of the crisis. And he went after the Chechnya means over it. And he became more powerful for it. It's an opportunity. And so then you make a comparison between the Beslan school crisis and this and you say to yourself, well, for Putin, even if he didn't do it himself as a provocation, he used it, he will use it to maximum advantage to enhance his own power. And that's the discussion we need to have. What will he do now, just like the Beslan school crisis? What will he do with this crisis to enhance his own power? Yeah, Jay. See, the ISIS was a militant group which emerged in eastern Afghanistan in 2014. They claimed responsibility for this attack immediately, but Putin directly pointed at Kiev, because security has been a very central point of Vladimir Putin's precedence. And he sees this as an opportunity, as you said, he can't fight on all two fronts. He can't take on the ISIS and Ukraine at the same time. He has to focus on one front if he wants to win the sport. And though he will deal with ISIS, if it's ISIS responsible, he will go after them, but it will be covered. He will not declare it. He will just declare his war on Ukraine. And the ramifications of this terror attack will be that he will strengthen his aggressiveness towards Ukraine. Now he has got no limitations on him, Jay. It is all going to be vengeance for this terror attack. He is going to head on into Ukraine and do everything is going to be justification for this terror attack. Yeah. Well, that's the awful part of it. Ukraine denies responsibility for the attack. And I believe that. I don't think they would do that at this point in time, especially given the fact that billions are at risk in terms of support from the EU and from the United States. They can't act badly and do an attack like this. So I think you have to believe they're rational. They're not going to do an atrocious attack like this. Nevertheless, it really works well for Putin to blame them and that they use it as justification to ratchet up the war against them. And he can justify that in his propaganda. And I'm sure, well, already he is making disinformation to the Russian people. He is saying, I don't believe this was really ISIS. They took responsibility, but I don't believe it. This is really the Ukrainians. Look where we caught them. We caught them near the Ukrainian border. And that tells us they were trying to return to their friends in Ukraine. They were sent by Ukraine. And therefore, let's really bomb Ukraine into oblivion now, much worse than before, and get the Russian people to back him up on that. Because he has problems with the Russian people. And the way to deal with those problems, about supporting him, the way to deal with those problems is to give them propaganda, lie to them. And the big question, okay, and I would put this to you, although nobody has an answer, are the Russian people going to buy it? They keep seeing their sons and soldiers coming back in body bags. And they suspect, perhaps, but they can't say it out loud, that Putin is lying to them about Navalny and others who oppose him, about pre-Gotion and others in the Army. They may be questioning whether he's telling him the truth. But this helps him, I think, and the question is whether they will believe him in the propaganda when he says, no, no, no, this wasn't ISIS. This was Ukraine. And for that matter, it was Western Europe and the United States. This is all our enemies packaged, all at the same time. They're the ones who did this to us. We must respond. Do you think the Russians will buy that? Jay, we live in liberal democracies. And when we see a terror attack, any scale happening to us, we kind of unite. And we give the government the entire autonomy to act. We see that, you know, that shock brings the nation closer. The same thing will happen in Russia. The same thing that people will come together for the sake of the country. It's a terror attack on Russia. And then it comes right of self-defense. And then your leader becomes supreme. And that cycle is uniform in every country. And to oppose your leader at a time when the country is in need never happens to you. And Islamophobia is a reality now in the United Nations. There was a resolution passed by China and Russia about Islamophobia. 114 countries voted for it. It is happening. And they don't want that to happen. But terrorism has a majority face that comes across ISIS. Islamophobia, it comes out. And the country then really takes the side of the lesser evil. That is happening in Russia. So now Putin seems like a lesser evil and he seems like a savior and protector of the lighting effect. When he's lighting the candle, his emotions for Russia. Russia becomes supreme. So the people are never ever going to question him now. I mean, Navalski will go a little bit in the background. The anti-Putin agencies will have to take a step back. It happens. This raises some interesting things that we didn't know. I mean, it raises one thing, as I thought, that ISIS was no more. But that's really not true. ISIS is still alive and well. It doesn't have a headquarters the way it used to have in Syria and Iraq. It's in Afghanistan now. They call it ISIS-K. It's not like a special breakfast cereal. ISIS-K. And they're particularly violent. And they're giving the Afghanistanis a headache too. So they operate out of Afghanistan just the way that terrorists operated on 9-11 out of Afghanistan. The other thing that I didn't know is that Russia has had a lot of Muslims, lots of them, from the south mostly. And a fair number of them are terrorists or susceptible to terrorism. And that Putin has had a problem in dealing with them over the years. This didn't happen in a vacuum. This has been something that he has been aware of but has not shared on his propaganda. He sort of ignores it, just the way he ignored the ISIS statement that taking responsibility. He blew that off. It's interesting. And he went right to blame Ukraine because that's his agenda to marshal all his forces and all his propaganda against Ukraine. But the fact is that there's a problem with the Islamic State and with other terrorist groups inside of Russia. Now we know. The Russian people may never realize it because he's not going to tell them. But the fact is that he has a problem and it's not going to get better. And he can put the FSB on all of them. He's going to interrogate these four guys till the cows come home. They will wish they were dead by the time the FSB is finished with them. God knows where they're going to go. I mean, Navalny had a quiet death compared to what's going to happen to these guys. There is no death penalty in Russia. So they'll take it all the way on torture. Anyway, bottom line is this reveals, at least to the West, the problem for Putin. Let me add that a few weeks ago, the United States shared intelligence with Putin. And they told Putin, you are going to have a terror attack. And it is going to be in a public place where people gather like a concert. Wow. What a premonition that was. They must have had the U.S. intelligence agencies must have had some pretty interesting intelligence to be able to make a prediction that accurate. And of course, he blames the U.S., but the fact is the A, the U.S. has intelligence about what's cooking in Russia, in the Islamic State community in Russia. And they shared it with him. Here we are with an adversary and a war in Ukraine where both different sides of the fence and yet they shared that intelligence with him. I'm not sure exactly why they did that. It reminds me, actually, of the titanium issue where we found in the newspaper a few days ago that the United States was buying titanium from Russia at an expense of hundreds of millions of dollars. So we have these sanctions going and sanctions with a small s that don't have that much effect on Russia. And we are at the same time buying precious resources, minerals, from Russia in the form of titanium. So it's a bittersweet mixed bag connection we have where we share intelligence with them to ostensibly try to protect them. And of course, Putin blew that off. He characterized that warning as, quote, I'm not kidding you, blackmail, blackmail. That was the U.S. trying to blackmail him. So we're in a strange position where no kindness ever goes unpunished. We try to help the guy and he blames us for what happened. So this raises interesting questions about the relationship of the EU, whether they believe Putin's propaganda, whether the, let me call it the base, the right wing, the right flank in Europe, believe Putin's propaganda about it being the fault of Ukraine, and whether the base here, whether Trump and Mike Johnson believe it. You know, how much traction do you think Putin is going to have outside of Russia about trying to blame Ukraine for this attack? Jay, this ISIS Khorasan is a byproduct of the policies of the superpowers in the Middle East. So these people got armed. They started off as something against anti-state. But then when they withdrew and they became something like cash for one deal or cash, you know, Putin has spoken about this a few years back in a conference that now ISIS works as you want something, then you pay us and we get it done. They had been reduced to that after they went into oblivion. And they were reduced to oblivion because of the crackdown on terror financing in the international system. That's why they changed the name from ISIS to ISIS-K. I told you these Islamic outfits, terrorist outfits, when you ban the accounts, they change a wording or letter and they start new accounts. So that's what happened with ISIS to ISIS-K. And these people kept their activities on because Jay, it's very easy for them to create like this havoc in a system. And like you said, US and Russia have been dealing financially in trade and everything because Jay, there is a strategic geopolitical interdependence that nothing can change. You know, political events and all they'll continue. But there is a strategic interdependence amongst countries which always continues irrespective of what happens. So dealings of Russia and the US will always take prime precedence over other issues. If it comes to a point when they have to come together to fight terrorism, they will do that for sure. They will overwrite their differences because they are responsible superpowers. That's what's the difference between a nuclear weapon coming in the hands of a rogue state like Iran and the thousands of nuclear arsenals resting with Russia and America. They are responsible superpowers, the responsibility that they take in the economy, in their military front, in their future thinking they have a foresight. Terrorist states, rogue outfits, they don't have a foresight. They think about now that immediate effect, they don't think about immediate repercussions is unknown. I think nothing for them. Yeah, you sound like I'm an Indian who we talked about a couple of times ago. He's the guy who used to be with, he was with ISIS and then he sort of turned on that and began consulting with the West on exactly what was going on with ISIS. And he talked about the differentiation between being a legitimate state, even if you're a rogue state. And your primary mission is to provide the security for your people. So they didn't have to worry about a lack of security. They didn't have to worry about this kind of terrorist attack. And then you have these non-state actors. And I'm afraid to say that a lot of them seem to be generated right out of Islam. These various terror groups are all, they're all hijacked from Islam. And so they're not state entities. And those are the ones we have to worry about. And I pose to you as a geopolitical analyst person, Rootmati, are we involved in some kind of change where states, even rogue states, cannot provide security for their people because of these non-state actors who go out and do terror. It almost sounds like we're sliding into a new world where the terrorists who strike at random, who do outrageous and atrocious things. They are the ones who control the personal security of the individuals who are in the states and citizens of the states. Are things changing globally? Very much, very much. Now, immediately, France announced a terror alert in France. So what happens to traveling the restrictions? The movement in France gets restricted. And Jay, when these terror attacks happen, now when we look at the Russian terror attack, these are four key persons who have come with a backpack in a car. They are carrying four automatic guns and they have created havoc in the entire world, terror in the entire world. So they don't need a lot of equipment to do this. They need just one personal, what is that, personal ammunition and just create, spread the terror. And that terror has a lot of repercussions. And on every person's movement, Jay, we have security checks, airport security checks coming in. We have people being viewed with suspicion at every nook and corner. And that's what hurts. You really don't know. There is a lot of suspicion. And when suspicion happens, your movement falls down. And modern world, modern world is coming, it developed to a point that there is freedom, freedom of movement, freedom of interacting, freedom of interminging of cultures like this, there is implosion. And you go back to being closed, you get back to setting boundaries. And these boundaries, Jay, they will come in every country. Now the swinging movement that used to happen, it used to happen amongst all 41 countries, you are free to move. Now, because of the immigrant problem, everything, they are being questioned if you have entry into Switzerland, why you entering through France, they question this now. So it's going to go step by step. But I tell you, because of these non-state actors, it's a big problem that you mentioned very properly, Jay, Hamas and Palestine. Palestine state, the Hamas terror outfit, we talk about the lines getting blurred. And we speak about Hamas, the terror outfit which carried a terrorist attack on the state of Israel. But how many people speak about it as Israel versus Palestine? These lines get blurred. Now Russia will always have, in the heart, they'll have suspicion towards Middle Eastern terrorism. So these people may not be from Idemes, they must be from Tashkent, they must be from Tajikistar, Central Asian province. You never know. Radicalization does not require too much change, it just requires your mind and indoctrination. Well, you know, what's interesting is that this, that when you have repeated terror attacks, such as Israel has experienced, and, you know, it's an interesting comparison, such as the Palestinians themselves have experienced. You know, Hamas took over the Palestinians in Gaza. They made it impossible for you to be a responsible citizen. They made it impossible for you to have a responsible government or a responsible economy. They changed Palestinians. They changed Gaza after Israel left in the early 2000s. And so, you know, you look at these things and you say, hmm, people get hardened. The society changes to deal with the unpredictable terrorist attack that could happen anytime. And arguably it happens more and it happens worse now. So if you have it happening in a given country or region, then you have the society changes to deal with it. And that's very sad because, I mean, think about it. You're going to go to a concert? No. I'm not going any public groups right now. And that was the warning the United States gave to, you know, Putin a few weeks ago. It's groups of people that are at great risk. And so at the surface it affects the arts. It affects, you know, public theater and public entertainment, public gatherings, which, you know, as they knew from the Greek and Roman times, this is the most important part of our society, of Western society anyway, of any society that you have the ability to be in the town square, so to speak, to talk to people, to engage with them and not to be isolated at home or away from others. And so if you, if you threaten any group of people, you change society, change the public conversation. And I'm serious. I think this kind of thing will happen. And to the extent that it happened in Russia, it could also happen in the United States. We could have increased terrorism by the Islamic State or others that they've shown us they can do it. And other countries, Western Europe, for example, you see an increasing amount of this terrorism at random and increasingly atrocious with effect. It's hard to measure the effect, but with some effect on the society in general. So I have one question that comes out of all of that for you, Ruban. So if I'm a member of ISIS, or ISIS-K as a case may be, and I see that Putin says, I don't think it was ISIS. It was really Ukraine and the West. It was Ukraine and the EU and NATO and the United States that made this happen in the center of Moscow. So I'm going to blame them. I'm going to, you know, I'm going to increase my aggression against Ukraine. I'm going to fight Ukraine all the more aggressively. So what do I then, as a member of ISIS, think about my next attack in Russia? Is it going to be sooner or later? If I want to prove my point and terrorize people in Russia and attack more groups in more atrocious ways, am I going to wait? Or am I going to do it now while Putin is beating his breast about Ukraine? Wouldn't it be a great idea to have another attack now and show the world that ISIS can do it and that it is not Ukraine as ISIS? If they took responsibility for the thing last weekend, they're going to want to make their point again, don't you think? I suggest to you that this may actually step up the risk of further attacks by terrorists in Russia. I mean, that is what Putin lies about, the source of it being Ukraine. What do you think? Yeah, Jay, most probably terror attacks do not stop. They don't, they're motive. They're motive is to create an ISIS state all over the globe. So that will never stop. And Jay, to say this talk about this, there was no valid reason for ISIS to carry out an attack in Russia. There was more immediate trigger for ISIS to carry out an attack on Russia. Nothing happened. Putin did not have aggressive policies against any Islamic state or any terror out of it. He has just been busy with Ukraine for the last two, three years. This was a diversion or it was, you know, a deed for cash, only isolated incident of four people could have been easily bought to create this terror attack. It is not, ISIS doesn't have any aim to achieve against Russia. They have been carrying out attacks and troubling, niggling Putin, but never a concerted attack to overthrow the government of Russia. They don't have any agenda versus Russia. So ISIS claiming responsibility seemed like a dicey thing from the very start, from the very beginning. But Ukraine being involved in it. Now this becomes like a FBI investigation, Jay. Who did it? Who has done it? Has Putin done it himself? There are the questions that has Putin done it himself. Is Kiev really Ukraine really involved in it? Their frustrations at losing the war, coming out or, you know, to think Putin's popularity after the elections, because Russian people do have a strong nationalism streak in them. They do love their country more than the outside world and they do support the president of 24 years. Two and a half decades, they have been supporting Putin. So he is not a stranger to them. He is like family to them and they support him. So who is the troublemaker in this entire system? Has to be brought out, Jay. And ISIS coming out so forth in claiming responsibility, what will happen if they claim responsibility? What will they get? There was nothing to achieve voices. So ISIS claiming responsibility becomes a very, very dicey issue. Yeah. Well, you know, I have a thought here. I'll express it to you and see if you agree. He's going to, Putin is going to get more aggressive in dealing with Ukraine because he's going to capitalize on what happened at the concert hall, you know, as an opportunity. He'll do a lot of investigation through these four people that they captured and find out as much as he can about, you know, terror cells in Russia. I'm not sure he's going to get anywhere with that because there are many terror cells in Russia. And as a result of the increased aggression that he mounts against Ukraine, I suggest to you that the people in the EU will see it as even more emergent than they did before. They'll say, hmm, Putin is really determined now. We have to provide support for Ukraine. And in this country, you know, there's only a majority of only one Republican in the house. One more Republican, you know, drops out in favor of a Democrat, and it'll be even Stephen or worse for other Republicans. And at that point, you know, we're going to have a lot of pressure to provide aid and weapons for Ukraine. So it may be only a matter of time before everybody gets wise to Putin and decides they are going to support Ukraine more actively. And if that's the case, Putin is really going to have a problem because Ukraine with more weapons, more money, will be able to do more in beating off Putin. And in fact, in attacking infrastructure and the like in Russia. So if he does what it looks like he's going to do, it may backfire. Your thoughts? Jay, he will get more aggressive in Ukraine. And Jay, he has woven it into the fabric of Russian politics in the recent years, this Ukraine conflict. He has won the elections. He is very safe. He's kept his front going because it serves his point well that he talks of Russia-Russia as a superpower. Ukraine is now just one side point. Now he's trying to come into mainstream politics by coming out. You see the terror attack has brought him back. When everybody writes we stand with Russia, he comes right back into global diplomacy. The person who was isolated walk him in and then now we stand with Russia because a terror attack is something which hurts every liberal democracy and every freedom-loving citizen of the world. So he comes back right back into the sympathy that Russia got out of this attack is what serves him well. And Ukraine getting more weapons and fighting in the front, they are going to continue this for a long time because Zalsensky also in his fatigues, he is used to this. It is now become really, I'm telling those become routine for them. They're not taking it as an urgent war or something to achieve. None of them have clear means on your objectives what they want. Putin wants to take over entire of Ukraine. They just want them not to join NATO. Ukraine wants to, it's very happy collecting money and continuing the struggle with Russia. But nothing and they keep on asking for membership of NATO. So this is like this ongoing conflict that they've kept it on. It's a good funding idea for Ukraine, don't you think, Jay? Well, yeah, but you know all of this reflects a deterioration of security, of national security, of regional security. And for that matter taking it together of global security. So we live in a time when regional, national and global security have never been so questioned and questionable. So I'm more worried than I was before this happened because I think it has implications far beyond Moscow and Russia and Putin. Well, thank you, Romani Kandekar, a global strategist, a geopolitical analyst. Thank you so much for joining us for this discussion. We'll do it again soon. Thank you so much. Aloha. Aloha. If you liked this show, why don't you give us a like or subscribe to our channel? Thanks so much.