 So, welcome to this weekly charting analysis with myself, Jasper Moeller. We've already got up to an interesting start with the UK's biggest technology company getting bought out. Arm holdings being bought by SoftBank. Before we get into all that good stuff though, we do have the risk warning on the screen. Please just peruse that. Any questions at any point? Certainly feel free to send them through the chat window or the Q&A window. And here she blows. Here is the CMC markets platform. So, it's certainly interesting times. Front and center, I think for a lot of the CMC traders is that we've broken out to new record highs in the US markets. And question number one is, can this be sustained? Well, your crystal ball is a little bit fuzzy, but it looks good so far. What you want to see front and foremost is when the first day breaks high, you want to see it close above the dead. Now the week closed above those previous record highs. And so we've got a confirmed week closing above the previous records. Now that's good stuff in terms of confirming a breakout. We did come off the highs last week. I think the thing that could potentially derail this, which is, let me just break up the chart while we're on the screen. I did make a chart forum update on the S&P 500, not the US 30 today. It was the S&P 500 that broke out first that Bell brought up a couple of days later, if you remember last week. But we had this downslope and trend line broke through that first and then the following week broke above those previous records. You can see we're getting a nice little gap open from last week's close today. Not quite at new intraday highs yet, but I suspect that's probably not too far away. But I was going to say that the one thing that maybe could derail this is that the economic data from the US is actually starting to pick up. The retail sales was strong on Friday. Industrial production was strong. Consumers confidence took a little bit of a pullback, but to be honest, that is a pretty spurious indicator anyway. And so USE cannot data improving. That obviously increases the odds of the US rate hike. But nonetheless, I think the moves we're seeing are pretty encouraging. A lot of it, I think, just comes from people flattening down the hatches a bit ahead of the Brexit vote. But then suddenly there was cash to deploy in markets when once global markets didn't collapse following the Brexit vote, then people started chasing the returns. And that's what we're seeing. Same old excuses that there's really low bond yields out there so you don't get too much in terms of income interest. So people buying in are obviously buying into bond markets, but they're not really necessarily buying in for those low yields. They're buying in for the capital appreciation in bonds. And that's the same reason they're buying into stock markets. And it's no surprise that it's all the stocks with the highest dividends that are outperforming because people are just trying to get those returns from somewhere. All that being said, that's quite good news for this rally continuing. We're obviously in US earnings season now. And we've had some generally positive results. It's the big banks that are in focus at the moment. So we've got Bank of America reporting in the next hour or so. And then we've got some of the tech stocks reporting this week as well. So to check out, I've got some brief summaries that I've posted on the insights. Notice we've got the video that I've posted here. Here we go, advertising something I haven't posted. I will post it into insights. It's some analysis we've done. Just a quick summary on some of the big tech earnings this week with a bit of chart analysis. The likes of Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, and Yahoo all reporting this week. They all potentially could be drivers of the terms. Or obviously on the flip side, could see these markets well over. We could look at the US 30. Looking pretty similar. This is obviously the daily chart. You can see that we've got that confirmed breakout on Wednesday and Thursday. Pullback on the Friday and slightly now actually with the Dow. We're doing a bit better even than the S&P 500 pushing our intraday pre-market into new records. I mean, there's been divergence here for a while on the RSI. But we're gradually pushing up into overbought territory again. And that's actually a positive thing when you're in an uptrend. You want to see strong momentum. It's only when it starts reaching the end of a strong uptrend that they start paying a bit more attention to the divergence like we saw here. These peaks and price getting followed with lower peaks in the momentum. But we haven't really had that uptrend in price yet. So we're still going to get there a bit later in momentum when we get to those overbought. So it's at a later stage that momentum starts telling us that the market's overbought. So encouraging actually that we're not overbought yet. We're just heading into that territory. Haven't broken through the 60 level quite decisively on the US 30. Look at this daily chart. Not sure it'll be something that many people are actively trading. Maybe you are. Maybe you've decided to on the sort of rare opportunity to. But it was the Turkish nearer, which was the big mover on Friday, obviously, because of the coups that just were happening. A quick look at our dollar TRY chart. So what's basically happened is that we pushed massively on Friday, did a bit on Sunday. Now we're coming off those those peaks in USD TRY. But you know, we're pushing into the top of the range, but we're not. We're not there yet in terms of the previous peaks in TRY 307. And, you know, again, the US data has been quite positive, maybe increasing political risks in Turkey. There's some scope that this pair could push a bit higher. But otherwise, the big currency focus since Brexit has obviously been sterling. So just have a quick look at the sterling chart here. Worth noting the other reason I bring this chart up. Let me get rid of this boy in Japan. I was just demonstrating those to someone else, but I typically use them. The other reason to bring up the sterling chart is we've got a lot of UK related data this week. So we've got UK retail sales, UK CPI and UK unemployment all coming out this week. Obviously, something I mentioned and this is something I did put in Insights is in a video preview of a video review, I suppose, more of the Bank of England last week and the pound post Brexit is that actually the reason that Bank of England held Pats last week but are still signalling they might cut interest rates or do something else to stimulate the economy in August is because they don't actually have any solid economic data yet. At the end of this week, they will. Not all of it is pertaining to the economy after the vote, but it gives us a little better idea as to how strong the picture was running into the vote and a little bit afterwards. So at that point, if this data still looks reasonable, they may still do something, but it's hard to imagine that there's a real need, a desperate need to raise interest rates. It's going to be a choice for them stepping in ahead of any future problems before there's any evidence of it, which is maybe a little bit imprudent or actually just waiting and seeing, keeping the power to dry. I would certainly prefer the latter approach, but given the language of the governor and chief economist Andy Haldane last week, they seem to be going for, as one of them described, hitting a nut with a sledgehammer to solve the problem. And so we've had a slight counter to that this morning with Martin Weill, who may not too distant past voted for a rate hike. He's been suggesting he's a bit more willing to wait out for some good data to hold off or the data worsens and then think about cutting rates. So the moment, the question is, have we seen a bottom in sterling since the Brexit vote? What we were looking at is something that's not quite divergence, but basically where the lows in RSI were almost equal, and then we saw quite sharp lower lows. So we saw a bit of a momentum divergence here, and that's helped us push up to 135. You can see there's something akin to a tweezer top. It's not a tweezer top because there's not really a trend in place here. But if that were at the top of the trend, that would be the pattern. And it shows quite a big sell-off a couple of times short of 135. And my reading from that, given that it comes in with those sort of little post-Brexit bounce that we initially got, I would suspect that we need a bit of a bit of a bigger bit down towards I would say 130, the big round number to really test the metal of the bears and see if they're willing to take the pound lower through those Brexit lows. If they're not, then that gives you a bit more scope for a decent rebound. And I think if we can't take out the lows, we've got a few areas of resistance that I've highlighted on the chart here. This midline is basically the kind of long-term support that we crash through, as is the 135. But you can see that these is low from February, and then this immediate low before we did the big Brexit crash, are two areas of resistance. And I think we probably head towards, pretty much towards 140. If we can't decisively take out 130, tends to be the way markets react. We're going to move to the next big handle, so that would be 140. So can we sustain 130? If we move through there, then I think we're probably heading to new lower lows. But it will probably all be dependent on first of the economic data that we get this week and then subsequently, and then also how the Bank of England react to that in speeches and how they actually react in the policy meeting, which is only in three weeks' time. So while we're having Stirling, I won't go through all those fundamentals again, but we're seeing a similar thing in the Europound where 83 is holding quite well and we've got that similar-looking kind of tweezer bottom suggesting that maybe we've got a chance for another push up towards 85 and beyond towards the highs before we roll over again. Now I'm chopping and changing a bit here just according to the kind of main news that's going on. Maybe even worth a quick look at the shares of arm holdings. So obviously the shares were in a fairly tight little range. Arm holdings was originally massively funded by Apple and they get a lot of their business from Apple. Obviously there was chip design for smartphones for the most part. And with Apple shares, they've taken a bit of a dip. Arm shares have performed relatively well. They've still been holding this rising trend line, but they mostly flat. So obviously this deal value takes the share price way out of this kind of recent historical performance. No real chance to buy them now, unfortunately. It looks like this deal is pretty much sealed. I'm not sure if there's going to be any competition. Intel was always the company that people thought would buy out arm just because Intel fell behind in producing these chipsets, but it looks like they may have missed their advantage. It looks like SoftBank have taken advantage of the drop in the sterling to get in on a deal. We saw the same thing last week with Steinoff taking out a pound land. So if you do invest in shares, have a little think about some of the kind of companies that could be taken over that are attractive with the kind of discount the pound is now offering. Some of the other technology companies obviously Sage is the only FTSE 100 company, but Imagination Technologies is another one because they're kind of a rival of Arm. Also, since we're talking about the UK market, I'll talk about the FTSE 100 now. So we're obviously broken out of this kind of choppy sideways range that we're in for a while. And again, we would close nicely above it. It wasn't like these breaks here where we would dip below it, but then viciously moved above on two occasions, pulled massively off the lows. Same thing here. So a lot of buying interest at these lows and eventually it's taken us into territory above that old range resistance. So the first air resistance I would have been looking at is just from this low on March 29th, but we're pretty much at that at the moment. That's what we're pausing at. It's around six to six, 700 mark. And then beyond here, I think it's this was kind of the kind of uptrend we were attempting after the general election that took us into new highs. And we took out this low here, you know, dripped right down, tried to get above it again, failed again, and eventually rolled over massively in August of last year. So that to me would be another big one, which again, it's kind of just at the 100 round number. So this is about 6809, but really that 6800 is the key next one that the index needs to get through. And then this resistance that it constantly bumped up against in 2013 and 2014 would be another layer. Because if you pull out to even the longer term monthly chart, if we were to bump right into that and roll over, you know, that would be something akin to a heavy shoulders formation. A very rough neckline, which, you know, it would be very difficult to trade the breakout of the neckline. But if we did get a failure here, it could prompt some pretty vicious selling down to 6000. But the gains are pretty broad based still looking a bit weaker in Europe. We've got the ECB this week, obviously. The expectation is that because they only just started their new, they announced the new program of measures in March and they only really enacted them in June. They haven't had enough time to see them taking effect in the real economy. And a lot of people suggesting that really they have half the reason that they have agreed to start buying corporate bonds is that they're running out of government bonds to buy. Especially bonds that they're eligible to buy because they can only buy down to negative yields that match their deposit rate that they've set. So anything yielding under 0.25%, they're not able to buy. So that's a large part of the German bond market at the moment. At some point, German bonds were negative out to 15 years. In Switzerland, they're negative out to 50 years, 5-0. So that's pulled back a bit in recent days. But nonetheless, ECB is kind of running out things to buy. Nonetheless, we don't expect anything at this meeting. Probably all this meeting is going to be the most interesting bit. I would say it's probably just going to be Draghi's comments on Brexit. And it would come out left field a bit if the ECB started talking about taking extra measures to defend Europe against Brexit, especially since the Bank of England just held firm in their recent meeting. That would be a bit of a surprise and that would probably send the Europe pretty sharply lower. And this particular chart probably a fair bit higher on the idea of new stimulus. I think part of the reason that we've kind of gone so sideways in European markets and haven't seen the kind of breakout that we've seen in the US and the UK is the fact that not much more stimulus than the table and growth is still a bit more in Europe. But we're at the 200-day moving average. If we can close above here, the next line of resistance will be this fairly well-defined downtrend line above there. And that definitely opens up this pretty much the 10-500 is the next resistance. And on there, then we are into breakout territory. So it will be a matter of whether the Germany 30, the German DAX can catch up with US stocks. And I think if the breakout in US stocks is sustained, then it will just be a matter of time before these markets catch up. Let's switch gear to commodities. We've seen a bit of a downtrend in crude, but the market's been pretty choppy of label. Just in this kind of grinding correction phase in crude, we're out of this really bullish channel phase that we're in. We've got the lower high here, came back down to the trend line, attempted another break high, couldn't do it, another lower high. And then we've actually made a lower low here, which has taken us into a sort of short-term downtrend, but we didn't get much. It was a pretty weak breakdown here. So it will be a matter of whether we can add some, you know, whether this new low that's been taken at 45, 70 odd, whether that can be taken out would really get people worried, I think. But at the moment, it looks like we're just in this kind of very choppyish correction. Something that's fairly bullish of note is if you do consider this a bit of a false breakout, you'll also see that there's been pretty much no new low made in RSI. So a bit of a bullish divergence in RSI to suggest that actually maybe we'll get another push-up to that declining trend line and maybe even a break above it. Next one, gold. Gold had a bit of a rough week last week, bit of a game changer I would actually add. This is the weekly chart for gold. I've just got it on here, super simplistic in terms of lines and averages involved. Just because we formed this bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly candlestick in gold, and that's right from the third test of the 78 report level on the weekly chart. So pretty damning outlook for gold based on this particular pattern. You know, this is a longer term pattern, so it doesn't mean that we get an immediate sell-off. We could get a pushback into that pattern back up to 1,350 perhaps is the round number in that pattern. But nonetheless, that's pretty bearish. We're above the 200 week MA. We're uptrending, we'll make the high highs and high lows, but this could be the first signs of a trend reversal. Let's have a look down at the daily chart. You can see here that here it looks a bit more modest. Just another pullback. And so still for that reason, we could get a few people buying into it, but I think it's going to struggle now to get through 1,375. Of course, these bearish patterns fail all the time, but I would not be, I think the risk of that pattern coming, you know, bringing about bigger declines would be a reason that I'd be pretty cautious about buying the dip and probably not looking to take it out, take the right profit out into 1,400. So I think we'll, I think we've covered most of the bases there. Again, a lot of US earnings this week. I've mentioned that some of the big tech stocks, so Netflix, Amazon, Yahoo, Microsoft, also some of the banks haven't reported yet. Bank of America probably reporting anytime soon. Also got Goldman, Morgan Stanley, American Express, and then just the ECB meeting on Thursday and also this UK data, which could be the key driver for whether Sterling's bottomed or not. So make sure to watch out for one of that. Good luck with trading this week. It's Jasper signing out.