 Okay, it's nine o'clock and good morning and ladies and gentlemen and many thanks for Bracing the morning snow to come to this session about the China outlook I'm very sorry for my Beijing cough and Certainly, this is one of the issues that will be touched upon and in the next and 60 minutes and Davos is very much about traditionally to do with outlooks and China has been The start of Davos in the past decade, especially in the past five years and but this year I think the way by which we discussing China and the future direction of China will be slightly different First I think China is slowing down Following three and a half decades of a phenomenal economic growth double digits gross and And China is slowing down and the China and its people in the government Wanted it to slow down because it's realized that such a model of development and economic growth is unsustainable So we're expecting in 2014 Probably I think between 7.5 GDP growth compared with a couple of years ago double digits and And I Forgot to you know, see if it was by myself. Sorry, I think you know and I'm leaving Sam I'm a journalist from the Financial Times and for the past ten years and I was given the responsibility of Taking care of FT Chinese calm, which is the Financial Times only following language publication And so we have been and on the on the front line of reporting and what's going on in China? So today, I think we have a very very distinguished and a penniless and The reason I say distinguished I really mean it And so I will just give I think most of them they are Davos regulars and I think the gentleman I think on my left on the Victor to and Victor has been around at Davos for many many years I think probably 30 years Nineteen years yes, and Victor is a Leading investment banker who actually has the chairman and also the CEO of First Eastern investment group based in Hong Kong Who is also a avid observer of the financial market Chinese financial markets? and I think the next one is a new new Shen Nanpeng and the new is has been And regarded is one of the Most well-known and venture capitalists in China and he has been often voted among the most in French business leaders in China and I was told by friend that a new is has a reputation of turning Stone into gold So I hope I think he will be able to share some tips with us, you know Sorry, we all want to be rich and the rich quickly And and I think next speaker and also a very familiar face in Davos and and the minister Zhang Xiaoqiang and with the vice chairman and DCR and which is the super ministry and from the Chinese central government and especially and given the impetus that Mr. Xi Jinping's new leadership Obviously, I think he will be sharing with us some of the insiders stories about the new thinking of the leadership and so we're really and looking for what to that and next one is Actually the only non-Chinese speaker on a panel and and also someone who needs no Introduction at all and the professor Rory Grubini a professor of economies from and from New York University and Who is a familiar face all over the world? for accurately predicting the last global financial crisis and But my only hope is that he's not going to breaking any venues and today and and and and and and and the other thing that we shall we just jokingly say is The reason why professor was chosen and this and invited is said he's want to learn Chinese So next time I think from next year I think he will be able to actually join the session and the speaker in Chinese and and finally is Professor Lidak Wei and a leading Chinese journalist Leading Chinese economist and who is now teaching and doing research at the Qinghua University one of the best university in China Who was also a former member of the Chinese central banks monetary committee? So now he's a former member. So he got to be much freer in expressing and his views and so before I move on to give each of the panelists The chance to Open in their remarks and just a few points that I would like to highlight and One thing is that I think there's some good news which is you know one year into the new leadership especially and after The party's third plenary session Mapping out and what is China going to do? So this time I think the reform scheme and has been Many of the Western commentators has regarded this is probably one of the most comprehensive reforming and the blueprint that China is going to implement and in the next 10 years But we all know that from words to deeds can be a challenging process and there's no doubt. I think next five years is going to be difficult and because the new leadership led by President Xi Jinping and the Premier Li Keqiang and Has not only inherited the second the largest economy in the world and The largest trading power in the world You know the three trillion US dollar foreign currency reserve but also I think inherited a long list of legacy issues a economy which is Favour of the GDP growth or even someone may call it addiction to GDP and Not at the quality of growth and Environment which is is already our ecosystem, which is already further serious damage to both in urban and rural and A financial system is yet to be liberalized a currency is yet to be liberalized and a gigantic urbanization and Scheme and or or or plan which is going to throw out a lot lot of social and Economic and the problem and also a system Which is still ridden with corruption and both in politics as well as in business and also the poor and the rich divider is not only decreasing but actually Increasing so I think in China now is really facing a series of a problem which can only be overcome by The political willpower that is first of all Addressed issue and taking this issue heads on so I think you know so today I think and I think of all five five panacea is going to do just that I know that Analyzing China is a risky business and there's no crystal balls and but we all want to have one So I think I can get I can promise you that each and every us will try to do the very best So I will first I think I will actually let Professor Robini to speak first as a courtesy because the rest of them are all Chinese and Professor first Thanks very much. It's a great honor being on this panel being the only non-Chinese speakers I live in New York City where most people in Manhattan when they have a child today they Chinese Nani because they want their children to learn mandarin from very early on so I think that's going to be the trend in the future You have to learn mandarin. I'll make sure I'll do it myself As you pointed out and the Chinese leadership has recognized the model of growth of China is Uncoordinated. There is unsustainable. He's a Unstable and there are a number of imbalances The key one in my view, of course, is the one that there is too much savings too much fixed investment 50% of GDP and too little private consumption at least the official number suggests 36% of GDP There is also an imbalance between the quantity and the quality of growth that has led to vast amount of environmental damage The quality of air of water of land issue of food safety There are regional imbalances between the coastal regions. They've been growing faster in a richer and the interland of the country There's been poorer There are imbalances between rich and poor as you pointed out that are issues of income inequality are becoming serious as well. I Would say however among these imbalances the key one is exactly the need to rebalance the economy from too much Savings and fixed investment towards private consumption and certainly the reforms that been announced in the term plan of the party Would go in the direction of doing that rebalancing You can never discount the ability of Chinese policymakers to do the right thing after all for the last 30 years The country has been growing 10% per year and therefore something good has been done and they could be successful in this rebalancing But I would like to point out some elements or at least Skepticism of why things might not turn out and if you don't rebalance instead of a soft landing You might have a hard landing First of all, even at the third plan of 10 years ago There were similar kind of things where to rebalance towards Consumption from fixed investment instead of share of consumption fell and the one of fixed investment went from 40 to 50 percent of GDP There was a lost decade of reforms. So why this time around is going to be different I know it's going to be different but the question is will the reforms be implemented as fast as is optimal and desirable Secondly for the last four years every time there's been a slowdown of China Has it happened after the global financial crisis the country has doubled down on the same model of credit fueled Fixed investment that's going to real estate to infrastructure to access capacity by the state on enterprises in 2009 2010 11 and this year as well and every time an extra dollar or you want of credit is having less effect on GDP in terms of amount of it and how much the economy recovers So the rebalancing has not occurred as the Chinese leadership says we need to grow at least 7% Then you can be skeptical on this rebalancing because rebalancing is going to imply growing Maybe 6% or less for a while if you're really serious about rebalancing Third point as you pointed out there are issues of Implementation artists gonna be implement or not talk is cheap if so sweet So we'll have to see action and so far we have not seen in my view as much action And finally I make also the observation that in China There are some interest groups that are Against this rebalancing because they've been benefiting of the old model of growth base on fixed investment I would say state on enterprises and there's not a real serious reform of a Suiz In the making provincial governments where you get promoted Based on the quantity of growth not the quality of growth if you are a provincial Leader and you want to succeed to become member of the Politburo or standing committee the state sector the PLA These are groups that are Internally influential they're powerful they're organized while those who will be benefiting mostly from the rebalancing are Consumer households wage earners that are not as politically organized So the question is will these things in be implemented when you have lots of interest groups that are against it now The Chinese leadership includes starting with the president premier people want to reform But there's a collegial leadership that has a group of people some of them more conservative some of them more reform oriented I worry that these it's gonna be a gradual process and China's not gonna rebalance fast enough Compared to what's desirable and optimal and therefore the risk of a potential hard landing have not been totally actually cleared yet Okay, there's a lot of a lot of issues which Professor Rubini mentioned. I just want to turn to minister John and I think professor highlighted a lot of the difficulties and especially about the implementations and you have been working in one of the most important and the government department to actually tasked with Reforming and do you think again this new leadership actually deliver what it actually promised? I Think that after third preliminary of the party Central Committee They have a very strong signal for the Chinese government to Push ahead the all wronged and deepening the reform and opening and I think even though someone mentioned that In the country not every people to support this kind of the reform and Opening but if we look back to the history of the last more than three decades We can see most of the people including some many of the government officials we realize only the reform and the opening is The strategic choice for China to implement is strategic target to modernize the country and the practice already show the reform and opening is the strongest input for the sustainable development, but of course after three decades reform the Balance of the reform we still remain a very hard one, but I think that both the senior leader of the country the government official and Entrepreneurs and the citizens have a very strong support for this Reform but of how so how to implement this reform in the efficient way is a challenge Yeah, I just want to have a follow-up question. I think of from Professor Robini Actually, I think you know obviously the the the third primary Session that report obviously were very well received both in China as well in the West But there's a particular couple of issues which are absent for example the deepening reform of the state-owned Enterprises which is one of the most the phony issues facing China in the past decades And is that what's the reason why the state or enterprise reform was particularly what was missed at there? Is that because of the Interest of group they were opposing to such reform because it will harm their interest For I think that Even though someone Thinks that in the last five-year or last decade the state-owned firms reform has been thrown down but personally I think there still has some progress in the state-owned enterprises and For example for many of the state-owned enterprises have improved our reforming to formerly, you know hundred percent state-owned enterprises to change to a you know mixed shareholder modern company and Some of the state-owned enterprises now has been put into a very strong market Competition and so this competition they increase their competitiveness and the efficiencies in a wrapped way but of course for certain sectors the Reform is still not enough is in some extent for my personal experience Related to the central government of the China's credit risk Because I'm willing to know the China's basic system is we call the socialist market economy that means we need both the public sector and the private sector and According to a constitution the public sector should control the major sector of the national economy But the problem the country we are facing is that which kind of the sector should be treated as a National strategic sector for example, I don't think the iron steel industry in the future Should be treated as a strategic sector for the country I don't think that the automobile sector should be treated as a National strategic sector. So that's the job particularly for DRC in the future We need to have a clear picture how to concentrate the state asset in the real you know strategic sector and put other sector open more To the Private sectors to the mixed economy. Yes, so the hybrid mixed economy and I think Professor Lidoque is very itching and to say something and I just want to clarify if you read the decision of the third premium actually the Reform of state and enterprises is one of the highlights There are two simple points the first point of the reform is to improve the corporate governance of SOEs including increasing the number of professionally hired CEOs rather than appointed by the government second point is also very important that is to turn the SOEs Into financial holding companies like CIC China investment cooperation So down the road maybe five or ten years no longer there will be first auto works Or as Dongfeng auto works there will be a financial holding company whose whose shares are Our shares of multiple enterprises in the country including private enterprise may even including Volkswagen and the professor Heisman's here But one thing which I think a many of the people thinking one of the key criterion For reforming China's state or enterprise is abolishing the political appointment system I think this is one of the things that otherwise I think the modern I think boardroom structure will never been properly implemented You know if a governor of a bank it can be rotational among all major a banks I think this is not something which China want to Manifest her about itself as a open and a liberal economy. So I just don't know. Do you think of that? Look at the Singaporean model. They have the domestic They have the government investment cooperation the CEO's or chairman's of these companies are pointed by the government of Singapore Well, these companies are holding shares of multiple enterprises and in the end. They are very efficient I think competition is very important There should be a system of evaluating the performance of the managers of these financial holding companies Thank you and Victor from where you sit in Hong Kong. Thank you so much early First of all, ladies and gentlemen, I take great comfort in Hearing what professor Robini have said. I think this is the most bullish assessment. I've ever heard from the distinguished professor I think that's a very very good start to begin with. I think short-term out of China Is mainly politics? I think we we all understand that the challenges facing China is massive But I think we all Understand that the Chinese leadership Really understand what needs to be done what has to be done and they've laid out a very rational Blueprint in the last third planium to execute the plan now, obviously the third planium is an event in itself The detest of the success of that blueprint will come in the next three five seven years but as Minister Jiang said China is looking forward to Have with the benefit of the experience of the last 30 years of reform is undergoing another major period of transition To achieve a strategic sustainable development And what that means in business terms is to increase the competitiveness of the Chinese economy and the Chinese enterprises Now some of them are lowing hand fruits like simplifying the bureaucracy within the Chinese system And as as you say in German some of the legacy problems are now being dealt with very quickly But what I I've seen is that the speed in which the leadership the president has consolidated his his power base is is surprising to begin with but is understood and Encouraging because he needs to really get the architecture of power right in order to execute that program and And and we hope that you know with a rational Determined and courageous leadership at the top that some of these challenging program can be can be done It's not easy It's a long and winding road But if you look at the track record of China in the last 30 years I think the medium to long-term outlook has to be positive. So I think that's my my starting point Yeah, I think you know obviously there's a lot of issues, but in general if you look at last three four five years The quality of the growth has really been improved Obviously the grocery has been coming down, you know seven to eight percent a lot of people complained That was a lot lower compared was used to be But if you look into the very details, for example, there are many sector which Should be the pillar of the country ten year twenty a downroad. They are enjoying some very quality groups Information technology is one of them healthcare I know are the other and obviously consuming the channel are picking up very quickly as Urbanization accelerating so I think you know This exactly we as an investor like to see you see a bigger divergent of growth among different sectors and in a way that's actually is gradually solving the problem of this economic Stretch issues because a very traditional manufacturing sectors like glass cement or steel whatever their grocery has been coming down and The new economy or those more promise sector are taking more weight and and I think this happened in the backdrop of Market forces is Play a very important role here. I think the third planet has put this as the most critical message that You will let the market forces to be the determining factor in resource allocation I think it has happened before actually already in the last several years And I believe that probably going to be accelerated in the future and if you let us happen I see there's a lot of you know sector will continue this kind of quality growth very good example here is The information technology sectors. We're talking about companies big gigantic Bidu Tencent Ali Baba the top You know they are in the tops ten in a global, you know information technology You know arena and they're not just big they're very competitive if you put them against the folks like Facebook and Google or Amazon, you know an apple they are very very competitive look at their, you know You know grocery they look at the margins to look at their you know competitive positions and You imagine probably sometime down the road these will become global companies not just you know companies addressing the China market So I think you know, you know back to you know the issue of We can solve those you know our legacy issues If we continue to see this kind of my you know market force be the driving forces in you know resource allocation and We continue to some quality growth Growth ultimately were taking all the problems. This is the ceases back 10 years ago 20 years ago a lot of people do not believe in that Back in you know 1997 you know when when Asian crisis people think that the Chinese financial system is in big big jeopardy But gross solve a big part of problem or probably you know most of problems today I think we are in a back in the same position I think you know if we continue to see quality growth they will take out those legacy issues Personally, I don't think you know we should expecting some magic like you know sort of sudden You know You know a change to the optimal economic structure. No one can that down that historically in fact I think if you change things dramatically, you know with kind of sudden death kind of plan you're actually going to create a lot of issues a gradually Transition to a more optimal economic structure is I believe in the works and Obviously, there are a lot of challenges, but definitely I'm on the more optimistic camp So I think in the world where I think you know negative growth and also I think of no growth at all I will actually come and praise in some parts of the world and I think you said basically let the growths take care of yourself if there's a growth There will be that this is a problem-solving. I know that professor Dockrey Lee Dockrey has actually actually coinage that a new kind of theory is about a sandwich theory and The problem. This is the right platform to for you to share it Big topic and an old topic. It's very hard to Tell people what's new. So let me try my heart to tell three things you may not know Okay, about this channel the outlook first word is about the sandwich Okay, what is sandwich sandwich is something cut, you know, two layers No, man, the middle in between now I think today's reform dynamism is a sandwich structure with the Xi Jinping on the top being very determined to push reform I oftentimes describe him as a mini Deng Xiaoping, right? So trying working, you know, all very hard pushing reforms By the way, two days ago when Prime Minister An Bei was giving his talk, I was there many of you were there Are you very impressive talk? It's wonderful. Wonderful politician. Meanwhile at the same time Xi Jinping held his very first meeting of the central government workgroup Leading towards comprehensive reform and he said in that first meeting while I'm by was making speech here that timetable should be made for every item of reform So that's the first layer the top leadership the mid the lower layer are the grass road people including Readers of financial times China right very very popular very powerful So don't underestimate your power as a journalist So the readers of financial times the users of internet are also pushing for reforms They're complaining about many many things ranging from corruption to pollution in the middle are some of the colleagues of mr Zhang not himself Okay, who are so comfortable with the current system. They don't want reform So today's dynamism is two layers squeezing the middle part So the top leadership has picked up the most popular Agenda of reform that is anti-corruption So anti-corruption was chosen as the first item very popular very very popular I think that's first step to get to govern eyes political support for further economic reforms That's the first thing I want to mention sandwich second thing. I want to mention is slowing down I think this round of reform unlike the previous rounds of reform Actually is Contractionary Contractionary me for is is against growth for example For example, the anti-corruption campaign frankly speaking is not pro-growth Why because Chinese officials are used to having fancy banquets with entrepreneur's during which design deals but now fancy banquets are illegal In the anti-campaign movement, right? So suddenly many officials and entrepreneurs don't know how to talk about business deals Right. There's no they have to take time to find discover new ways to do deals So in the short run this year and next year I predict There will be struggle a struggle to maintain 7.5% growth which is the the medium target of the reform in order to create 7 million new jobs for the college graduates So these two years will be difficult if the reforms can be Imprevented properly this year and next year then I For my forecast would be that the growth rate will go back to something of high 7th close to 8% Now the third point I want to mention is risk Risk I do share with the new rail on the risks. They are risks about Chinese economy I don't think the local debt is a major risk that can be doubt Relatively easily overall the Chinese economy still has room to issue debt as a whole economy I don't think the shadow banking is a major major risk Because much of the shadow banking in China is actually very much needed In order for the banking sector to serve small and medium enterprises the major risk is Whether China will be able to do a soft lending of its property price The property price has been running very fast Ending with the result of the ratio of housing price to income would be 20 or even 25 years So I hope I definitely hope there will be situation in which housing price continuously growing Land price growing local governments can still get revenue from selling land However, the growth rate is lower than the nominal GDP so after three four five years the effort the affordability ratio of housing Comes down. Okay. Thank you. I think you mentioned that you you basically thinking that one of the issues that we're going to talk about it, which is the I think the year the year the serious I think local government debt is not a serious problem and you don't think but I just wonder where the victor and Did you share the share? share docus view that local government debt because the Central government has just for the first time did a very comprehensive auditing About local government debt actually the figure now is amount to be a three trillion US dollars You know, it's like the more than three trillion US dollars and and also the pace of increasing is actually gigantic Some of the commentators, so you can't be thinking this is actually a kind of a time bomb in the system Yeah, and did you share with that? I like to make three points first of all the the growth of Credit from the shadow banking sector. It is it's very fast on the other hand. We shouldn't Classified the shadow banking is credit as necessary. Oh, they're all bad No, some of the I mean shadow banking sector what we call in the West secondary banking sector Is is is very useful because some sectors in China do not have access to to to to to the capital market so I think The government understand the issue and as a whole is still a relatively Manageable part of this of the system. So I agree with David that I think is is totally manageable I think where I also agree with David that we are looking forward to a period of a Lot more sensible lower Headline growth. We're going for more quality Sustainable recurrent growth rather than Grove in headline and but that also have a good spin-off and that is where where growth is low it put pressure on on furthering reform We will have bolder reform coming through for example We all are very excited about the Shanghai the new Shanghai tree tree zone Which Will give a lot more freedom in the professional services to flourish in in China Benchmark to to global market Conditions, but Shanghai is not alone. There will be other special tree zones coming through Allah Tianjin Guangdong, so you'll see that that is really the beginning of another set of Economic revolution, you know freeing up the market to to both international and domestic competition Thirdly in terms of risk. I think in the short term the the most serious risk is is is Politics whether the consolidation of power could have any backlash, you know We are at the moment. We are going after the big elephant in the entire corruption campaign I personally I think the the transition will be will be smooth and Consolidation power will be very complete and very very effective, but if there were to be backlash That's the risk in a domestic Sign also on the external side if there were accident in the territorial Challenges with Japan and other countries if they were accident before politics and Diplomacy can get the parties back to the a new status quo that could be serious So I think the risk is politics external and and internal. Yeah, rather than economic. Yeah, obviously I think I will I will not ask her mr. John about to Japan and But I want to press you on also about to the debt to local government debt issues and from where you sit in the central government And do you think of the year because the figure which I Located is actually in 1997 almost there's no local government debt at all and Now I think the local government debt is also already a month to be one-third of the national GDP I think the whole Chinese economy and so from your view and do you think is that a is that a problem? What's the solution? I Think is a problem, but I agree with professor Lee's that it's Problems if you look at the overall debt ratio for the GDP the central government debt ratio for GDP is about 20% Then the local government debt for GDP ratio is about 40% so put this together is 60% of the GDP that's the public debt Compared with the international Situation Everyone knows the US government debt is 100% of his GDP for the European Union soon The public debt ratio for GDP is net percent for Japan the sovereign debt is 230% of their GDP so that's one thing I think Compared with those countries the ratio is not so high and most important thing is that we are Pay a great tension To solve this problem There have several ways for example. We have decided to implement relatively comprehensive regulation system for the local government debt We have emphasized to push ahead the mixed Ownership economy that means Some of the local state on enterprises Can transfer their assets to the private sector Which means in some extent the local government can get some revenue to reduce their burden for the local debt and of course the most important for the local debt problem is the efficiency or quality of the development Which ever mentioned that even though the increase rate has been slowing down, but the quality has been increased step by step and also the China's economic development Because the base is in a relatively high level China is numbering in the world Last year GDP increase rate of China is 7.7% But if you calculate the appreciation of the local country to the United States dollar if you take account the CPI so the nominal GDP of the China in last year personally I have calculated is about 9.2 trillion US dollar so with the High quality development with the much bigger of the cake The revenue of the local government the price of the property which part of those owned by the local government can have Means they have more capability to solve this kind of the debt problem Okay, thank you very much mr. John and I think Because one of the other issues that's move on to Relation which is about China's outbound investment. I think this is also one of the issues which I think will be interesting in many of our guests and delegates in the in the audience and I think in 2012 I think China's outbound direct investment has reached a record high and Figure which I was given is close to 90 billion US dollars 90 billion US dollars and obviously I think the rest of the world in either the capital from China and But a China also need to Basically articulate and find its own strategy. I think I want to turn to Neil and then you has been as I mentioned that one of the leading eventual capitalist and who has a very savvy eye for good investment and At the moment I think most of the Chinese inverse and be it from state-owned enterprises or private They're mainly dominating in the area of resources and energies So I just wonder whether you can share some of the trends which you have discovered in recent years Yeah, I think you know 10 years ago. That's probably true, but it's no longer the case. I think first of all, there are two You know sort of capital flaws one is as a financial investor I think China clearly has a community a lot of you know You know as said and they want to diversify and make perfect sense as a financial investor allocating, you know You know sort of assets around the globe So this is more like a financial investment into you know global bond and equity etc The second one is more sort of strategic investment. Yes 10 50 years ago That's mostly driven by still enterprises making Acquisitions or investment in area like in mining so natural resources, but the last five ten years in fact the bigger headline ones you know either sort of mixed-shareholding companies or private companies Starting to make inroads into international arena. If you look at the last five years six years the three prominent acquisitions for Chinese company in the Western world is You know Sean who is acquisition of Smithsfield, you know, Lenovo's acquisition IBM notebook and You know the last year's vendor acquisition of MC cinemas These three are all more or less private companies and taking on consumer companies or manufacturing companies technology company Elsewhere so I think this is what gonna happen probably more in the next five ten years I mean the Chinese company which Grow strong enough. They have the ability to make acquisitions and integrate their business with different angles for example, you know In the case of Lenovo, they make sure that they are the you know No, they're not just a top three top four player in the notebook market, but they're not a number one and then You know company like strong we will leverage that and make sure that you know, they will enhance or upgrade They are you know food corn, you know, you know manufacturing qualities in China So, you know, everyone like those has a strategic angle to that. They're not just financial investor and I see this, you know Well will actually happen more as I said in the Chinese company now It's you know grow bigger and more importantly, they do have the management bandwidth to deal with and that's the more You know important aspect, but I think for example, I think many of the Chinese business I think they really want to enter into the American market And I just wonder where the professor from where you sit in New York that do you think that? Chinese business and Chinese capital still in counting some of the big barriers, you know for them to get into some of the sectors Which they're very interested Yeah, there are certainly barriers especially in the United States because US like other countries considered as two issues one is National security consideration, so there are some sectors were considered to be sensitive where investment by Chinese firms are going to be restricted Secondly the US another country of taking the attitude that you know Sovereign well funds are essentially state-owned One thing is to do passive investments that are okay But if you're making strategic investments, it goes against the grain of having Liberalization and privatization of the economy where you have gonna have state-owned enterprise They're gonna be having a controlling interest in large corporations around the world So I think that that's some of the backlash you have seen In the United States you see also similar kind of backlash for example also in Canada There's an element of resource nationalism some country prefer to have national control of their own Reserves, so I think that the broader trend is gonna be also one in which China so far has been accumulating net foreign assets in the form of foreign reserves Those foreign reserves are now over three trillion is becoming excessive The PBOC doesn't want to keep on Intervene accumulating reserves as a way of preventing excessive appreciation of the currency So one of the strategies of China might be to liberalize capital controls, especially on outflows to allow them SOEs or private firms to accumulate foreign assets as opposed to the PBOC That would have the effect of diversifying your foreign assets towards the private sector The so is preventing currency appreciation is excessive and then telling America you see we're not intervening the forex market Therefore there is not a problem with us as well I think the broader longer term trend is gonna be also one of trying to internationalize the role of that and be as a Reserve currency. I think that over the long term that can occur But traditionally reserve currencies have the following features. You have flexible exchange rates and in China still managed To you have to liberalize capital controls on inflows and outflows. That's something that China's going to do only slowly Otherwise, you're not gonna be a store of value if there are restrictions of that sort Three you have to create a deep and liquid market for local currency debt That is tradeable that can be a reserve currency and you've also to liberalize your financial markets All those things are happening in China that are happening relatively slowly So I don't yet see China becoming a major reserve currency But of course over the long term with the rise of economic financial trading power of China Even the role of that and be as an important reserve currency Not as a substitute to the US dollar, but the one of the additional ones may become another important trend in international finance Okay, thank you very much before we actually open the The question to the floor. I think I just want to give the chance for and professor doggie to to Response and talking about the financial and the Chinese financial reform is especially in terms of I think the time Timeline or the timetable of making a MD the MD as a convertible policy because this is something which Why you were member of the monetary committee? Sometimes you were fewer of constraint in talking about it Do you really think the Chinese leaders, especially the central bankers have a firm plan about to when China will actually make its currency convertible Well, let me first talk about the other word investment and come back to a question because these two are really inter Related let me put on the table square squarely. China is the largest Outward investor in the world period right at least 250 billion a year Because that's basically the current account balance current account surplus. I should say right Unfortunately so far these kind of investments are mostly done through the central bank So the trend if I'm a trend the trend is very clear The trend is to gradually lift the capital account to allow people like you and me to acquire US dollar and go abroad and buy Foreign financial products. What kind of financial products Chinese people should buy from an economic perspective Very simple buy things buy shares of enterprises who are getting profits from China Apple Apple computer Apple computer produces most amount of computers in China and yet at the same time China is the third largest market of Apple. You can tell me how much profit of Apple comes from China however today all the Chinese most of the Chinese households have nothing to do with the increase of the Share of Apple Apple company same thing can be said about my good friend No good company Volkswagen right your share must be have been increasing over the years your profit from China is huge right anyway, so this is a trend now Capital now the internationalization and financial reform. I don't think it is the objective of the Chinese senior policymakers including central bank governor and the and the the premier to push the internationalization of R&B. I don't think that's a strategy Because part one reason is because they know very clearly that we are far far away from under money the US the role of the US daughter plus China is a you know one of the largest beneficiaries of today's international monetary system right 3.5 trillion reasons for that right so much money is invested in US daughter wouldn't want to to under my system too quickly now So what is the goal the goal is to open up the capital account is to make the economy more balanced So talking about financial reforms. I think this year 2014 but definitely will see some actions first in interest rates liberalization for sure I think said 75% of the job is done the lending side is already 43 the borrowing side deposit site is almost free Now there's nobody very few people go to the bank and put the bank into the fixed income a fixed interest rate products We all go to the internet and look for the highest interest rates of among banks right second thing this year for sure I think we will see some actions in open gradually opening up capital account Maybe maybe with starting with the high Night worth accounts People have five million you by five million Yuan in bank account Then allow them to convert 10% because these guys are able to take more risk than other people and also most important this year I think we will definitely see some private banks in certain regions be allowed to enter into the banking sector Okay, just let me stop you there a measures to give her 10 minutes sir to our friends here, sir I'm John Negropanti. I was wondering if One or more of the panelists could address the issue of China's energy picture because last night I attended a session on the geopolitical consequences of the shale revolution in the United States and so on and so forth and I think one Factor is what the prospects for energy production are in China going forward and be interested in hearing your views on that I think I'll probably I think You know China now is the largest and Consumption countries even larger than the United States But the big challenge for us is that in our anti-consumption mix cold is shared about 65% it's just the another end because in the world and Anti-consumption mix the cold is only about 33% so this Occurred a serious problems of the eye of pollution particularly in last year It has attract More folks not only for the Chinese people Chinese government, but even all over the world So the strategy for Chinese government is to try to optimize our Energy mix that means we will accelerate to develop the Renewable at clean energy which means we will Accelerate to develop the wind power solar power We try to develop the natural gas Domestically and also we had import right to be huge amount of the natural gas in the year 2012 the natural gas imported to China increased the 34 percent compared to year 2011 and in last year the natural gas increased another 20 percent so now a day the Natural gas consumption within China the imported proportion is already reached 35% But still you know just in last month for the GCCT the Chinese side asks the US government allow to Export R&G to China and of course there's still another way try to develop You know hydropower still they have some potential the Bioenergy and of course clean cold technology is a big challenge because still Cold is a major energy resources for China Thank you, please Hello, I'm a French journalist Philip Mabye from Latribune. I have a question about innovation in China as in a French point of view because China don't think take a part of participation in a Peugeot maybe as a automobile constructor in in France and Also Chinese group with ODF in nuclear plants there you have Participation in nuclear in UK. So how much do you think that China's group are going to upgrade in added value in new businesses like we are doing and How are you going to be our competitors in our businesses in the future? I guess your question is more How you know what sort of Chinese angle to As a strategic shareholder for Foreign company, you know company that the correct. Yeah, you know In fact, I want just to expand a little bit of on what I have been said before I mean, you know the you know the very reason why those acquisition happened is that because the Chinese company see themselves as an Angle and I think you know for acquisition is is obviously one of the you know route people talk but probably more and more nowadays You know strategic minority shareholding probably makes sense because managing an integrated local operation will prove to be more challenged But China Often time has angle and that angle will often time come from to you know to side one of the we has a very big market So you can test you know sort of you know that that you know your product and services in that whole market Then secondly, I think in many areas. We actually are quite Advanced or kind of you know competitive on global basis for example in the information technology world in fact if today if there's any sort of You know leading e-commerce company could have a bigger International market share that would be probably more likely to be Ali Baba than Amazon or you know eBay so these company has already in the last several years Test the Chinese market for many years. So they're coming a lot of experience. That's the critical part for example I'll give you a good example You know in you know today's world. There are two very important applications One is a we chat I guess some of you use and the other the WhatsApp which obviously very popular among You know develop Develop countries now we chat because they are nature of you know You know coming out of Tencent they they know how to monetize it without affecting you the experience Because Tencent had done many many mobile game You know an embedded into QQ. So this is very easy for them now that experience could be very relevant and could be very helpful for Comple like WhatsApp or many other US companies to monetize it and because this is something China is a couple years ahead of You know other people so I see that kind of experience some know-how skill sets China could actually Transfer or pass on when they get into a new you know, you know a new region and makes you know You know investment into companies. Okay one more question Thank you Hi, my name is Alana Petrov. I'm with CNN money Professor beanie. I'm just wondering if you could tell us a little bit more I About you learning Mandarin and the process that you've gone through for that and when you started just a few more details on that Well, I used to have a actually Taiwanese girlfriend, so My first experience in learning some Chinese was that and there are 1.3 billion Chinese in the world and I would say that any person that is thinking about Living in this world Should think about the world where China is going to become the first largest economy in the world And that's why in the upper east side of New York Every wealth individual is having a nanny was Chinese for their children. I don't have any children yet, so But if I ever have one certain I would like to have them learn Mandarin from the age of one as a first Second language, so I will live in a world in which the role of China is going to be increasingly important of course English is the lingua franca of International business and even in this panel all these Chinese are speaking fluent English But I'd say that as a way of understanding China and we don't understand as Western as China Well understanding the language to learn about the culture the literature the political discourse Diplomatic and so on and Mandarin is gonna become a key language. So that's the future where we're going to Thank you very much. I think certainly this is session. I think with a very human face I think I would like to still maybe one minute I think of your web time and the final question which I want to give each of the panelists the 10 seconds and In the next 12 months, you know any risk factor that you think it will actually Derail what the Chinese government want to achieve economically and I would take from dr. professor Lee dogley too quick deflation of the property price Too quick decline of property price, which is very unlikely You moved mail down of the property market in mind. Okay. Thank you professor. We've not spoken about the geopolitical issues But certainly these territorial tensions between China and Japan and some of the other neighbors Already having an impact on trade and foreign direct investment I would say that both sides should be taking a diplomatic stance about the resolving this problem But there is a lingering concern that even just by accident take good escalate and that will be something Disaster, so I hope that both sides the leaders are gonna realize that diplomacy is the way to go That's a risk that the one will have to consider Thank you of course accelerate the reform and the opening and accelerate to transfer the different pattern and Optimize our Thank you You know a country like a company so you have a annual budget and annual plan and the risks the execution risk I think we do have a very clear plan and the risks of how to execute it especially with a challenging You know for the economic reform, you know in place Apart from the excellent with Japan, I think we didn't talk about public health I think if there were a not a major avian flu or similar Event it was distracted reform program in the short term So I think that's actually completed a session on China look I think even with Professor Rubini's presence I think we managed to actually achieve something quite upbeat So I think China despite the problem is facing is still is a area that is a window enjoy one of the high risk The growth is one of the area which enjoy. I think you know in a TV drive This is one of the country which is still since are happening So I think I just want to say that and to end today's session and let's give a round of applause to our five pennants