 Good morning, all I thought I would just create a video I guess as a reminder as to really why the fundamentals are important and it's what's really interesting is Looking at when things get extreme in a country, right and when it comes to the fundamentals What we're talking about is interest rates inflation in GDP. We're not talking about, you know news trading and and In so far as you know the media sentiment It's really kind of just eliminating the noise and really kind of looking at the facts now I'm not looking to trade the Russian ruble. Nothing of the sort, right? It's just this is just a video really to help you to understand if you don't already What the central banks actions and I guess this reinforces everything that I say Like you don't you know, you don't need that already But this reinforces everything that I've talked about when it comes to understanding what central bankers have to do To the currency to try to influence the currency And the currencies valuation, right? So there's a lot of talk I saw a video recently a very popular youtuber I don't really watch YouTube other people's YouTube videos that much But for some reason it popped up on my YouTube feed and I couldn't help myself because he was talking about potential fundamentals and And this this popular youtuber who has hundreds of thousands of followers has absolutely no idea absolutely no idea You know, he's he's basically, you know, long story short saying that you know It's all about the technicals everything you need to know is in a price chart, which is absolute nonsense There's no Elliot wave or you know, Bollinger band or indicator That's gonna tell you what's going on with the valuation of a currency. Yeah, it's just it's just not gonna happen It doesn't happen. I'll debate everybody and anybody on that fact so central banks in a way just so to digress but central bank sanctions whole rushes ruble intervention, right, so Really the point I'm trying to get to in this is is you have to understand what the central bank has to do. Yeah, and Many of you obviously who are in the group will have access to this PDF. Yeah, so You know, this is the interest rate and inflation diagram So a relationship diagram and inflation is really devaluation of a currency. Yeah So basically if inflation is going higher, it means that the currency is being devalued more and more and more now in order to combat inflation devaluation Central banks have to hike interest rates, which is try to appreciate the currency yet to offset that devaluation so again the higher Inflation goes. Yeah If inflation goes to four percent, let's say for example five percent, then this is really where you're looking at interest rates still going higher inflation going higher, right, so Looking at you know, this example from from an extreme Yeah, so always remember this if you're if you're ever, you know in in doubt as to what the central bank has to do In the environment in certain environments when it comes to inflation as well as GDP definitely remember this so It talks about the Bank of Russia intervening and intervening Can basically just means to try to control the valuation of the currency And stability of the currency central banks are mandated to control to try to you know, maintain a stable currency That's their mandate, right? They have to do it whether that is by Devaluing the currency or in try to try to increase the value of the currency. Yeah So let's scroll down a little bit and it talks about here it says Nowhere was the difference and more more stark than the currency market on Monday where the ruble plummeted more than 30% against the dollar as the central bank stood pat Yeah, so the central bank has said its interventions reached over one billion during previous two sessions So the Russian ruble. Yeah Literally devalued against the the dollar you're seeing the dollar ruble currency pair go higher But that's basically just an indication because you're looking at the base currency going higher and appreciating against the The the the ruble in fact what that is is is the is the ruble actually going Devaluing yeah is devaluing because when you have if the base currency is going higher. Yeah, the base currency is going higher Which is the dollar? Yeah, it means as a pair. I can't remember what the The the symbol is for this pair, but it's I'm sure it's not they are but anyways The ruble is going down. Yeah, and if the dollar goes up by 30 percent against the ruble It means the rubles going down by 30 percent. Yeah, so and in this scenario, you know That going higher is basically bad. You know for the I say bad, but it devalues the ruble, right? so again going back to Understanding the interest rate and inflation relationship diagram. You're seeing the ruble Devalued by 30 percent right in one day 30 percent So again, what do you think the central bank has to do? Yeah to interest rates? It has to Hike interest rates so that if that's two, you know, this might have been three. This might be four This might be you know 20 for example 20 percent right wherever the whatever the Interest rate was now they have to actually now start to Try to do something to appreciate and create demand for the currency Yeah, and again, it's not Leon Rose saying this it's you know You can't argue with me on on the facts because I'm just reporting what the facts are so it says here You know at stake is the central bank's ability to deliver its own its main story mandate to protect the ruble And ensure its stability. Yeah, so that's what it says here Saying check in my browser And it says the legal Bank of Russia legal status and functions Right, so according to article three of federal law You know the gold the central bank of Russia are to protect the ruble and ensure its stability again It's not it's not me. You know some some random youtuber saying I'm just reporting on the facts. Yeah And it says, you know with much of his assets now stranded in France, Germany in the US the Bank of Russia Resorted to a steep interest rate hike. Yeah Interest rate hike a steep one because it has to go to You know, you look at the rules. Yeah to the game This is what This is what influences, you know the market. Yes, there is sentiment as well Of course, you know flight to safety risk off etc But you know, it's not technical analysis. It is not technical analysis That is driving the market. No one knows what's gonna happen in the short term, right? But technical analysis market structure Indicators all that nonsense. Yeah is not gonna tell you what is Happening in the war, right central bankers the smartest guys in the room the investment bankers the smartest guys in Some of the smartest guys in the world yet and not consulting a price chart to determine what's gonna happen in Russia and what they should do With their clients money, right and how they should run it run an economy. It's just it's just it's just nonsensical So if you understand what the central bank has to do To influence the value of the currency, then you'll be best placed now again. I just want to reiterate I'm not trading the Dollar ruble in any way shape or form and I have no idea what is gonna, you know happen with the With the Russian ruble. I'm just letting you know yet from the next from an extreme example perspective Yeah, that you can see what the central bank has to do in the face of extreme inflation or you know if inflation is rising so for example You could just look at for example the the US dollar for example or central banks around the world that are you know have the problem of Inflation being above their 2% target a lot of them are looking to potentially high crates So but again, this is just illustrates, you know the extreme Russian ruble Devaluation and rate hikes. Yeah steep rate hike. Yeah Is again a great example of what we understand? You know central banks have to do now again I'm not saying that, you know, you should buy the Russian ruble or anything like that What I'm saying is is that in you know in normal circumstances under normal circumstances when a central bank is looking to Hike rates and inflation is you know above their 2% target generally generally and again It depends on what pair you're buying against another pair. I say another pair But what currency you're buying against another currency You know that the currency that is hiking interest rates compared to one that isn't over time should Appreciate that is what drives trends in the medium to long term. That is what causes You know currency appreciation versus depreciation not not technical analysis and supply and demand zones Yes, we use those to time our entries to understand where the bargains are on a price chart Etc. Etc. But as far as predicting where price is going to go in the medium to long term Technical analysis is is not the thing that you should look towards at all It's about understanding this stuff And I say stuff, but you know the the macros and what what the smartest guys in the room are doing And not you know some some random youtuber who who's solely focused on you know trashing fundamentals and You know Telling you that the simple the simplest way and the easiest way to To predict prices through is through price and indicators and market structure. Anyways guys, take it easy. I hope that helps and I'll speak to you all in the room