 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the power trading hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the power trading hour. It doesn't matter where you're at, it could be in Tumbuktu or Peoria, it could be up selling ice to Eskimos, it doesn't matter as long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So we've got a market that's down on extremely light volume, one of the reasons why I brought up the subject of light volume into a three-day weekend with Tim Ord yesterday is for this reason right now. We're going to be very short on a lot of stocks and a lot of indexes too. Does that mean we go blow out the highs? No, but options have pretty much suggested that we're going to be around 4,700 for the expiration. And you know, there's a little bit going on here now of just people being nervous, but I don't think we're going to blow out the lows with volume. Maybe some news or surprise comes over the weekend, but right now I think we are set up for something like a 147.25 area close next week, a week from today. And I think a lot of today, earlier this morning, was more sector rotation. We saw the banks come out before earnings, I mean before the open this morning. Citibank is down what? Just a little less than 2%. Wells Fargo is up 3%. Black Rock is down 3%. JP Morgan, the big loser of earnings for the day, so I'll give them the horn. Other losers of the day, and that is Disney, it's off 3% on upgrades and downgrades, but they're believing the downgrades. But pretty much saying what I said about Netflix and the rest, and that is that these companies that depend on streaming are going to be spending a great deal more as the bid for talent and scripts continues to rise. And even this, the ability to find a soundstage becomes problematic in the Tinsel Town, but I do digress. Anyway, other things going on, Dollar General down about 3.6%. But that's kind of it. The rest of it's all about a lot, I think a lot of smoke and mirrors and noise. One of the things probably most interesting to people is the argument on how banks could be lower with interest rates going higher. A lot of people, especially older, more experienced traders, have kind of an idea that the Fed is once again flapping its gums, and it really won't do much of anything this year. They're saying one or maybe two great hikes and a half percent, probably not going to be enough to really get JPM up to its level. Now, they came out rather sour in what they were saying. And my experience with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs is they are only sour right before they grant themselves huge stock options. They tend to be very bullish at highs and tend to be very bearish when things are going lower. But that's kind of it. A question. We've got some emails already. First in the day is Pete, and it's not a repeat from Pete. It is a new question. Do you think the TLT will fall below 141? I said yes. As I said, I thought maybe we'd be into 139 by now. The Fed did come out early in the week and throw some money at the market, even though they're saying that they won't be throwing any more money. They did a little bit, kind of stem the flow. And really, when it comes down to it historically over the last hundred years, the Fed's real job has been to slow down when the bubbles burst, because I haven't ever seen them actually do anything to slow down a bubble before it gets to some level where it's going to burst. They always come in on the backside and act surprised. But yeah, I think 139, 138-ish. But my guess is there are a few things that are going to happen. The person that I believe the most on predicting COVID trends is saying that they think that we'll be out of this and back to kind of early fall levels by mid-February or even maybe earlier. They think that this will be a huge blip and then very quiet and maybe even a burnout before June this year. They've been pretty good when I've been reading this gentleman's prediction. He does a lot of in-depth technical analysis of what's going on and not a lot of flowery political spin on it. I think that a lot of people on Wall Street are out predicting the absolute worst. And that's generally when I listen to them the least because generally they've already gone short and they're talking their own book for the most part. But is there going to be more sector rotation? Yes. And you've got to sell the stock that's probably not doing exactly what you thought it would, i.e. the banks. They'll sell those and they'll go back and buy something else. And why they can put their money in most things, my guess is they're going to put stuff right back in the stuff that makes the index pop the most. So as I said, maybe even a week or two weeks ago, I think it was probably maybe at least a week ago, I said I don't think this market is going to fall. The wheels are going to fall off the wagon during or before options expiration. I bet when I look at the data tonight or over the weekend, we're going to find out that these guys were selling puts left and right, trying to get everybody all bearish before expiration next week and bring it back up to $4,700 and rake in the dough once again. Now after that, could we have a few weeks of bigger downtrends? We could, but I think a lot of it depends on what happens next week. If we get any surprises, I just don't see a lot. I see inflation continuing. I see a current administration that is a theocracy against fossil fuels, that theocracy is going to mean that we're only going to continue to have higher fuel prices, and they literally light the fire of inflation like they did in 1974 with the embargo. It is a tax on literally everything and a devastating tax at that. We will return just like the Carther did to the Philippines after this. and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day guarantee. Take the path of least resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. 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You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text, either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. Oh, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. As we get back to it, yeah, I don't see a whole lot going on here. The market's certainly not reacting in a way that would say interest rates are going through the roof and the banks are going higher. Of course, Tuesday we have Goldman Sachs, JB Hunt, Interactive Brokers, so we'll get a lot of taste of that, what they predict. Generally, the CEO at Interactive Brokers is pretty good on giving some color and not a lot of weird smack. Wednesday, Bank of America, ASML. Now, ASML we talked about them a bit. Of course, they're having kind of some issues where China wants to buy a ton of equipment from them. I'm talking about maybe three, four, five billion dollars worth of equipment from them. The West is trying to block those exports so that China can't try to corner the market on chips. So they're looking at that. Morgan Stanley, Procter & Gamble, Foss & Hall, United Airlines, AA, what else do we have? Thursday, AAL, what is that? Broker, BKR, Netflix, Intuitive Surgicals, CSX, PPG, Friday of next week on Exploration Day. We've got SLB, an ally. So we're going to get a taste of earnings. I think everybody's a little nervous after this morning. But like I said, I pretty much do the opposite of whatever Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley or the rest of the cabal tells me to do, and generally it's the right thing to do. So if they're telling me to get worried about it, I think they're probably a little bit early. They may want to run all their shares, get a stock at cheaper prices for their stock awards, other things like that. You're swimming with the sharks if you're listening to them. And as I've always said, listening to the big men of Wall Street, mostly those at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, is like using your wife's boyfriend attorney for your divorce. Probably not a very smart idea. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Thanks, Jimmy. I think there's something more to it I'll talk to you about during the break. Okay. See what else we have here. Got some more emails. But that's kind of it. We're going to have a big week next week. I think that at least the downside Goldman Sachs and BAC is probably priced in a big deal. And two, we don't know that they're going to be as dour and sour as the folks today at JP Morgan were. But generally, if you get everybody bearish before the fact, generally everybody's short and it either doesn't go down at all or doesn't move or goes higher on a short squeeze if they come out with something a little bit better. And I always figured these guys are back in a back room talking in a smoke filled room with big cigars talking about how they can liberate us retail traders from some of our cash. But like I said, I'm not a big fan of playing them for earnings. And I'm even a less of a fan of listening them on what's going to happen in the market because I don't think they've ever been right. But I think they just go out there to say something, give CNBC something for the air. But it's generally not profitable. 877-927-6648, let's do a little history and move on. Yeah, it's history. It is history. And on this day in 2000, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates steps aside as chief executive and promotes the company president Steve Bomber to the position. Of course, he knew that he couldn't do anything and the government was leaning heavy on him. I suspect this is what they call prologue. What is it? Past as prologue. And we're going to see the same thing in some of the other CEOs this year that probably couldn't be blown out of their company with dynamite because they've got the agreements when they went to when they went IPO. But it will be so distasteful that they'll do something kind of like this. Gates would stay on his chief software architect, which is kind of interesting because he was fairly good at what he did. But most people don't know the last bit of code he wrote was 1979. I mean, he's got a kind of a good idea and not that he was a bad manager. In fact, he had a really good idea of how to wage war in Silicon Valley battles. It was but mostly hung around to make sure that the shares that he started selling literally in 2001 took him to 2018, I think until he was done. But he wanted to make sure that nothing went awry as he was cashing out. My guess is that other folks like Zuckerberg or buying the rest of Hawaiian islands that they mostly already own are also thinking about greener pastures and not having to ask full questions on why they violated the law repeatedly and lied to Congress. But I do digress on this day in 2000. Okay, that's that. Let's get back to stuff already in progress over most of TFNN. Let's take a quick look at some of these movers and shakers today. If you forgot because it's easy to do, we are closed on Monday. Okay, brought up this morning that you needed to watch out about the about the decay in options because they're basically going to take out three days. Generally, they take out the first two days early on Fridays, a three day weekend, and then they will go to the end of the day where they'll pull out Mondays, generally in the last hour. So if you've got any kind of options, just know that you're probably going to see if they've got a lot of premium, they're probably going to see a little bit of melt before the end of the day. That's also with how the market closes. We've been kind of playing around with Unchanged on the NASDAQ. It's down 22 at the moment, down 21 on the S&P. Like I said though, the volume just quite isn't there to drive the market down today. As we get to the bottom of the first of the hour, we're doing about 6.9 million shares and we're probably needed somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 to 16 million to really make me believe that we're blowing everything up. Now, as I said before, doesn't mean that we can't go down, but I do think they're going to have at least one more rally. It may be thin. I think they've got everybody all hot and bothered and short this week. In front of next week, we're really looking for some destruction. I think it's the last week of this month. We're back. Having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tiger's as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day. 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We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Q? No, it's not Q. There we go. It is 55 million shares compared to 76 million shares. But really what we're looking at is the 84 million shares of the 125 low. That was probably a pretty good indication that we were gonna come back and retest that low. But you know what? I think cooler heads are gonna prevail. We're probably, at least for the next week, gonna hold out above 130 on AMD. Things still look okay. I'm just not expecting a lot to the upside. In Nvidia, we're looking at the big shakers out here. Down a little bit more. It's got a higher PE and people are selling it just on that basis. But again, you're in a 60 million share low from January 10th into 14th, which is today with 30 million shares. So you're basically doing half volume of this big push down. And again, probably not something I'm gonna jump on. But if we're probably expecting this to blow out, not gonna happen. AMD and Nvidia, some of the highest, shorted stocks on a daily basis. So generally, they tend to be shorted early in the morning and covered in the afternoon after they run all the shorts that decided that it was today that was gonna be the day that it all blew up. But now, I mean, this kind of looks like the rest of the market. There isn't a whole lot of upside in the indexes, but it's not gonna take much, I think, to get us to $4,700 for next Friday. Now, I haven't seen the close-on options today, but I can get the general feel that everybody started buying puts, and that's a good sign or many people or most people started buying puts. And that's probably a good sign of a temporary low. As I said, I think the way that the calendar works out this month, you've got the 24th through the 28th. No fun buying nothing like that. And if you're gonna see some fairly major weakness, I don't think it's gonna be next week. I think you're probably gonna see, like I said, that low $4,700 area on the S&P. We'll talk about that when we return on Tuesday. But I think it's gonna burn out here. Generally, especially off the top, if you're gonna have a horrible year, it generally takes a little bit of time to get going. The attitude does not turn around overnight for traders, why they may be scared, and being a little bit trepidatious. Is that a word? I think it is. You can get it. Now, if we go up very light volume, the next move down, we'll probably blow all those out. But we shall see. I think we can get a week of just trying to make highs in that $4,700 area and then turn it sideways. Trepidatious. Yes, I thought it was a word. But it's not a word you use every day. I have to reach down for some of those, although. Okay, another intrepid listener, Mimi, wants to look at energy, COF. You pulled back after this gap. You had a big gap down. That was on the 27th of October. You did that with 7.3 million shares into it with 2.4 million shares. I think you're just consolidating out here. It's going to take a few more times. Like breaking down the market, it's going to take a little bit to break back up. It's very tough for me to see theocracy in this administration on energy that doesn't mean that the energy prices are going up. Generally, I'm talking about something else here at the moment. On Capital One, excuse me, I was thinking about energy for some reason stuck in my head. Anyway, on this one, you've got it. I don't know what your position is. I don't know what you're looking at. But I would hold into Tuesday, see what happens. I don't see a whole lot here. You've got a little bit of reversal. If you were long this thing, you bought it at the bottom back here on December 20th. That's all I would have ever looked for in the trade. I would have been out yesterday when it filled half that gap. But if you've listened to me long enough, that's pretty much it. That is half the existing gap. It gets filled. I'm out. That is probably the best advice you can give somebody if it comes up and is tested by lighter volume. It's not that they don't go up on lighter volume. It's generally on lighter volume that they just don't stick. Could you hang on until Monday? Generally, if it's a trade, if you own this thing for two years or something, it's different. But if you're in for a trade, you're out at the middle part of that gap. Other things going on here. She wants to look at ERF. Excuse me. Does Selexia cure for found? Okay. Well, you broke above. You really didn't do it with volume. This is this kind of volume up here. Let's look at longer. This thing longer. Again, I don't know where you are at in this, Mimi, if you're in it at all. My thought would be that this is going to come back and retest about $10.85. You've got that gap down, excuse me, on the fifth. You kind of come up here. You never really had a lot more volume. 1080, 1085-ish is where this could pull back to. I don't see a lot of reason. Maybe there's something else going on. That's pretty much it. Back to our list of stuff. You can give me a call 877-927-6648. Dan, the DIN brings up XBI. Let's take a look at that and see what he's looking at. Well, you're back at the gap. That gap goes back to, is that right? Which is that the one? That one right there. Okay. Goes back to May 5th of 2020, 7 million shares. You get a little more than you'd like, 11.6. Fairly narrow gap. There's a very big double gap right there at about 87 to 89. I will watch out for that. That's the Biotech ETF. We'll be back in a minute. Next up, we're going to talk about the real estate market. The real estate market has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. 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That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv. Mimi did want to look at that kind of Phillips. I was not losing my mind. I just didn't look back. That's enough. And it's above. Like I said, though, I mean, you've got the wind at your back with the administration. It's very tough to see that fuel prices come down significantly. But as long as you're above the 3x3, you are on the green. I don't know where you're at. Again, you didn't say. But if you're along this thing, there's no reason to sell it. On weekends, even more than gold, it's where people want to park their cash. And of course, even with more energy and what I saw today from the Baker Hughes numbers, most of those oil wells are not the big producing ones. A lot of ones came on from Baker Hughes numbers today from Canada. But they're all fairly small producers. I think there was only of the 15 in the States that went back online. I think only one of them was a big producer or two. So it's not, you know, there's a lot of oil wells. But, you know, they are differently. Generally, the ones when you see offshore oil wells, rigs, numbers and that Baker Hughes numbers, you know that thing costs billions and billions. And that thing is going to have to crank out lots of oil to be worth it. So when those come back on, I always put a little bit more of a note there. Let's go to Scott in Denver. He's a mile high. How are you doing, Scott? Great, Dave. How are you today? Another day in paradise. Right on. Hey, I actually have a follow up question on, well, I was curious about applied materials, but also I had a follow up question with, you talked about NVIDIA and AMD earlier. I was just curious, you know, you talk about those being shorted and their high PE stocks. Do you think those things are in danger of truly taking a big nosedive? Well, generally with higher interest rates, the thought is that you look for lower PEs. You look for stocks with cash flow. You look for a lot of defensive ways to play the market. And everybody's always looking for a faster horse. These things have had a long run, but to me, I don't know how, you know, even if they're expensive, I don't, if this is not, both companies could sell four times what they're selling today if they could produce it. So I'm not a big fan of going short those kind of stocks because all they have to do is find out that suddenly they've got another 20% video card business. Those things are selling for a grand to grand apiece. It doesn't take long to do a lot of business. NVIDIA has a huge business now in the part of big iron, as they used to say, IBM's space with its big systems for machine learning. And so if you can't sell your products because people don't want them, that's one thing. But if you've got four times as many people, I went down to Best Buy. They're in my vacation because they had a handful of the cards. There were 120 of us standing in line for eight cards. That gives you how bad the video card business is for NVIDIA, right? The reason I stood in line hoping to get through there is because I wanted to pay the $800 for the card, not the $1,600 or $2,000 that the scalpers are charging for. So AMAT continues to wipe the floor with Intel, at least on the consumer side of video chips, processor chips. These are not companies that are doing badly. If the market pulls back, they'll pull back too. But do I think they're going to blow up? Generally, what happens is that it's just like getting in a traffic jam, right? You get in the traffic jam, then it starts moving a little faster, it starts moving a little faster. And then what happens is all the semi-conductors have far more ability to manufacture than customers and price is plummet, and that's when the semis fall apart. I don't see that happening right now. Now for applied materials, I think that they're the best play because you already know that Taiwan semi-conductors are going to spend $40 billion in the next year building new facilities. And that money's got to come to applied materials because about 30% or 35% of all that stuff comes from applied materials. They are the man when it comes to supplying TSM. So ASML, applied material, those are all the big ones. The big thing for ASML is it's kind of in a sell mode because we're at least the U.S. and others on the West are trying to make sure that ASML does not sell those machines to China and let them kind of corner the market. So kind of a good overview. Yeah, it really is. And you know now you got me thinking if AMAT applied materials, PE is anywhere like Nvidia and AMD. I don't know if you know offhand. I do not know, but it's easy enough to look up. Google is your friend. Okay, here actually I see it. 2450 for AMAT and then Nvidia is 82 and AMD is 41. Yeah, that's about what it should be. Literally, Nvidia has made a new business at the high end of computing and it's selling the stuff, everything that they can build. And I don't see that changing for two years. So it doesn't matter what happens. Machine learning is here and it's here to stay and they all need GPU processors or as they call it in the business, TPUs, tensor processing units. You know what a tensor is? No. Well, you saw the movie The Matrix, right? Yeah. Okay. Well, if you go one more level deep from a matrix, you go to a tensor. So you go from arrays to matrices. So now you've got an X and a Y and then you go deep. And when you go deep, that's a tensor. But the big thing that all the machine learnings built on is being able to add and subtract fairly, I'm going to call it handheld calculator level technology, extremely fast, but all of them in parallel. So it's like having 10 million people out there and each one of them gets another piece of the puzzle and they just have to run the calculations on that piece. But no, it's hard to see applied materials not doing well over the next year. As long as TSM lets that money flow. So it's the better bet of the bunch. Hey, can I ask you one more question when we get back? Yeah, we'll be back. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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And so with the NASDAQ coming down because of the interest rates, would you suggest holding off before putting on a longer, what I think could be a longer-term trade in applied materials or just scaling in now at all-time highs? I'm not a big fan of chasing. So I always wait for a retrace. You always get one. And maybe it goes a little higher, then comes back. 145-147. And this would probably be very good support. Wonderful. Okay. Well, thank you very much, Dave. You bet. Have a good weekend. As all you do, we're down 17 on the S&P 500 DOWS down 321, NASDAQ's off 6. So that's, oh, yeah, we're done with him. Thanks for the call. So that's kind of it. We're looking at the weekend. We're going to check the volume here just before we go. We've got about 7.5 billion chairs. As I said, probably if we're going to blow out the bottom, we're going to need something like 14 billion on the CBOE consolidated tape. So I'm going to say we come in with 10 by the end of the day, maybe. So it's still going to be light. If we're going to bounce, we're probably going to bounce. And then maybe the next time down, we can get through. But I think that's going to be after next Friday's monthly options expiration. So when you can, not when you have to. And we'll see here Tuesday, since everybody's closed on Monday.