 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is safe, alive, healthy. That's a good break. That's what we want to start. The trading aspect again is only a cherry on top. So let's get into it. So last week, again, last week, very, very ugly stats all across the board. You had all the indexes giving up 10, 11, 12% worth of losses. Pretty big steep. Again, if you kind of go back to last week's video, if you didn't watch any videos in between from last Sunday to all the way to the week, you had to kind of understand that from my point of view. I did think we were going to have a thousand point rally based on just all my experiences that I've seen in the worst markets I've traded. Again, you go back to 9-11, you go back to the mortgage crisis and all that good stuff. And you always see, if you always traded those markets, you kind of know the similarities. No matter how bad a market is or as it was, you're always going to have that big aggressive sweep back to the upside. Doesn't mean that's necessarily the bottom. Just kind of a knee-jerk reaction because again, stocks just don't go straight down. Stocks don't go straight up. And we got that, right? We got that Monday. We got that last Monday and the bulls squeezed up. I think it was like 11, 1200 points, whatever the case may be. So not only did they do that once, but they did that twice, right? They did that twice throughout the week. But on the flip side, you saw some really aggressive losses as well. And if you look at all the market threw at us over the course of this week, it's pretty amazing how much data and how much macro headlines we had in front of us this week. You had now over 100,000 cases globally of the coronavirus. You had a surprise Federal Reserve rate cut 50 basis points on Tuesday. So obviously a big, big thing. And the initial response was market rally, right? Markets exploding, markets rally, Fed just cut rates. And then people just realized, well, wait a minute, they're cutting rates because of what is happening, right? They're cutting rates of because what is potentially going to happen of the ramifications if there is a major, major global pandemic of this coronavirus. And then all of a sudden the market went from up 300 to the down 700 very, very quickly. So we had that. You had Super Tuesday, right? Joe Biden, Joe Biden winning many of the primaries did very, very well. The next day the market rallies in the process knocks out Mike Bloomberg, knocks out Elizabeth Warren, Super Tuesday, right? So you had that. And you had oil plunging 10% for the week. Okay. Big, big move. 10% plunge throughout the week. You have all these different cases popping up. Now what we talked about last week, now we're starting to see into fruition. You have all these major metropolitan cities, New York, New Jersey, New Jersey, New York, LA. You're starting to get big case, well, not big, but you're starting to get a good amount of cases that people are starting to worry, right? Starting to worry if you've gone through any supermarket or anything Costco's in the last two weeks, you see there's a run on sanitized products on everything. People are starting to get very, very concerned, right? People are getting concerned. And it's not that, and you see this all the time, that people are comparing, well, there's hundreds of thousands of deaths because of the flu. There's only like X amount of deaths on this coronavirus. It's not, it's comparing apples to oranges. We already know what the flu is, right? We know what it is. The difference of why the flu is obviously a bigger deal now. But the difference is nobody knows what this thing actually can be. I think that's the, it's, again, you know, you know the less of the two evils, even though it's much more aggressive and it kills more people. We just don't know what this thing is. So when you compare, for example, SARS and bird flu and mad cow versus this, yeah, you know, it was new back then, right? And Zika, it was new back then and took some time to kind of figure out how to combat it. We're still in that infancy stages trying to figure out what works, what doesn't. And that's why it's scary. So that's why a lot of people are canceling their vacations. I had a trip planned to Palm Beach on the 11th, right? In a couple of days, I was supposed to leave on, was it on the 11th, okay? My trip got canceled. Now we're debating canceling our trips to the Bahamas in April. Okay, we'll see. I'm hoping they kind of die down. But yeah, I'd like a little bit of vacation here. I need, you know, I need a little bit of a break as well. But again, I'm not going to jeopardize my life. So you're seeing the travel industry, right? The travel industry just really come to a standstill. Matter of fact, you had the federal, you had the government come out on Friday and say, well, you know, you guys should really stay away from the cruise ships, right? Just don't go on cruises. I mean, are you guys short RCL and CCL? I mean, again, statements like that are scary, not because, again, how many cases have died is how many cases potentially can die. And again, it's the fear of the unknowns. You had all the stuff going on and you had the biggest, right? You had the biggest percentage swing in the S&P 500, okay? Since October of 1987. Well, you guys who weren't live in 1987 or don't know what that is. Oh, by the way, that was Black Friday, right? That was Black Friday, the market crashed. So we had a crazy week. And at the end of the day, right? At the end of the day, if I would never have guessed it, when I looked at it this morning, I was in shock. The Dow Jones was actually up a little less than 2% for the week, right? NASDAQ was flat. S&P was up 6-7%. And again, this is a perfect example, what we've been saying for years, that the indexes don't matter. What does matter from the trading point of view, and this is kind of where we always talk from the traders point of view. Again, the numbers, the headlines, they're all fancy and they're all great. And they're great water cooler talk. And it's a phenomenal conversation piece. And for the media to get you scared and all that good stuff, right? Is your money is safe? If your life's safe, all that great stuff. We're speaking, this forum is here to speak from the traders point of view and when we go from it. And again, when I went through 9-11, right? When I went through 9-11 from 2000 to 2000, 2001 to 2003, again, I didn't make a single cent. Because again, it was all new, right? It was all new. Again, dealing with a terrorist market was new. Not many of us dealt with that, okay? So I didn't know what to do, okay? And when it got to the mortgage mess, okay? Five, six, seven years later, the first half of the mortgage mess around 2007, I couldn't get any really good sustainability, right? This consistency was tough because again, what was the last time we saw a financial market pretty much about to implode and everybody's going to go hell in a handbasket. So I wasn't prepared to that. By the time 2008 rolled around, right? I was better. I kind of figured things out a little bit along the way. So by the time we got to this pandemic, I'm a much better trader because I've already gone through the turmoil. If you're a brand new trader and this is your first two years and all you've seen for the last two years is some random egg on Avatar, you know, Avatar on Twitter talking about buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip. Well, if you bought the dip, you're not trading anymore. So again, I think a lot of new traders have figured out what I've been saying for many, many years. There's a huge difference between buying the dip, okay? Or buying stocks into rising 60-minute support in a bull market, right? One of them will make you money. The other one will put you on tilt. If you still haven't figured out which one is which, okay? You will figure it out eventually the hard way. But again, that is the biggest difference. So along these lines, just from 2001 to kind of where I am now, you know, present day, I've kind of figured slowly things out and not because I'm smarter than everybody else is I've went through it, okay? I've went through it. And the more times, and this is kind of a life lesson to all your new traders, when you're in your first two years and all you see is this rabid bull market, no matter what you buy, and if you hold it long enough, the market will make you right. The market will make you smart. So eventually when you have gravity kicking, and again, gravity kicked in and the corona headlines really was the catalyst behind it, now you have to figure things out, okay? And again, you're not expected to figure things out. Okay? You've never gone through this. So how can you have the answers? The only people that have the answers are people who've traded through these markets. And now that we are in knee deep, right? Knee deep into this corona virus. You know, I figured a few things out. I actually picked up a toy along the way, but I kind of figured things out because of my previous experiences with dealing with horrific markets. And the one thing I will share, especially for new traders, in a bearish sentiment. Again, I don't want to use the word bear market, okay? Because again, it's all beauties, all in the eye of the beholder. It's all basically on your trading process what you can consider bull or bear. So for example, if you are a macro short seller, you'll always find, you see a lot of really good short sellers on social media. You know, bear market is all year round. So it doesn't make a difference for them if the market goes out, the market goes out. That's their niche. So I don't want to use the word bear market, but when you're in a bear sentiment, okay, you have to kind of figure things out. And, you know, I've been tweeting this for, you know, for a very, very long period of time and, you know, you get a handful of people always asking, well, what do you mean by that? What do you mean by that? And, you know, I'm going to explain in a second. In a bearish sentiment, okay, you always remember, always, always remember, okay? When there is a gap down, and this is something, especially you newer traders can use every single day, okay? When you have a gap then, and I actually tweeted this on Friday, when you get a macro big gap down, 400, 500, 800 points, always remember 90% of the stocks, okay, have made their average true range pre-market, okay? So if you see, for example, Amazon down $78 pre-market, again, think about where the value is, okay? You're not going to, how many of you guys at home, you know, come Monday morning, let's just pretend that that was down 900 points. How many of you guys are going to run out and start shorting Amazon down 90 points, right? Me, either. So my point is, when you get a big bearish gap down, very, very aggressive back down, 500 points or more, right? 90% of the companies already made their move pre-market on the average true range. So the value, right? The value of the day is always to the upside because, again, stocks don't go straight down and stocks don't go straight up. Again, that's just the reality of trading. And as long as you're patient to wait for channels to confirm back to the upside, you're always going to have an aggressive rally, the value, in the most ugliest bearish scenarios that you're possibly going to find. So if you go through the whole week and if you've been watching this video throughout the whole week, it's the same thing. The market gaps down, the value is to the upside. The market gaps up, and this is where, again, you see you have to be smart. It's very rare anymore, okay, in any bearish scenario that you're going to have a gap and go. Very rare because several things are on the table. Number one, okay, you're in a bear market or in a bear sell scenario. Number two, the macro headlines that have gotten the market lower in the first place, they're still on the table and you're only one headline away from seeing the lows of the day. And three, nobody, okay, no experienced trader, no veteran trader will ever buy a gap and go in a bear scenario. It's just reality. And oh, by the way, if you trade channels, and again, that's my whole game. If you trade channels, if you have a nasty reversal to the downside, and the next day the market gaps up, all these stocks you're doing is they're gapping up right into daily supply. And if you watched any of the workshops that have been in the live webinar or just heard me speak just over the last eight, nine years that we've been trading these pivots, you know that supply zones, right, there are emotional buyers meeting technical sellers, and demand zones on the way down, there are technical buyers meeting emotional sellers. So when you have a really 900,000 point decline the previous day, and then we gap up to 300 points, you're gapping up into supply. And I guarantee you, okay, I give you my word, you don't even believe me, I give you my word, if you buy a gap up the next day after a 900,000 point decline, you will lose money because you're buying the stock into supply, okay. So remember, first stocks can go higher after that, but now you need another candle or so to confirm that initial gap up into supply. Remember, stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, so that initial stuff on supply needs to get confirmed. And this is where unfortunately, a lot of traders will look at the pre-market high list and go, well, I'm gonna buy that stock opening range high, and you don't realize that you're buying it right into supply. You are the emotional buyer meeting the technical seller when the market reverses. Again, you get creamed, you get absolutely creamed. So if you've been watching kind of, if you've been even watching my Twitter feed just for the last, you know, for the last two weeks, all you hear me saying on every gap down is, well, the initial values to the upside. And again, we're seeing pretty aggressive rallies intraday, right? Intraday rallies on all these stocks, no matter how bad they are, Netflix, Tesla, the casinos, the airlines, right? Like on Friday, for example, we saw a really good, nasty reversal in everything, right? You saw on the cruise ships, right? You saw in hotels, for example, we put MGM Grand on the Twitter feed and say, hey, red to green, watch this thing go as well. So you have to make, you know, you have to make adjustments. And again, unfortunately, most traders, right? When you're learning how to trade, you're trading off of daily candle, right? You're trading off daily charts. So basically somebody can say, well, I like to buy breakouts. And that's kind of where the joke has been over the last several years. Any single time we get any sustainable downside pressure, I always, I always, you know, make the joke of that one trader years ago. And I said, well, he says, Dan, I only like to buy breakouts. I don't like to short stock. So I turned to him and I said, well, what do you do when the market goes down? And he goes, what do you mean? Right? It's that guy. And a lot of you guys unfortunately have become subconsciously that guy or that girl because all you've experienced is a breakout rabbit bull market. And this is where gravity kicks in. So if you've never traded through 9-11, if you've never traded through the mortgage mess, congratulations, you are trading your first, your first rabbit bearish, headline driven market. And it is called the Corona virus. But again, it doesn't seem now, right? It doesn't feel like it's now, but this is the best thing. I give you my word, this is the absolute best thing that could possibly happen to you for long term into your, into your trader development. Again, it's all great. Sunshine's, rainbows and lollipops when the market's going straight up and you could buy whatever you want that's all great. You might make money or you might not, but you need this, right? You need a market to test your will, to test your patience, to test your confidence, to test your character, to test your resilience, okay? It's not about getting punched in the face. You can get punched in the face a hundred times. It's how you react, what do you do after, right? What do you do after you get punched in the face? And this is the whole point of I've gotten punched in the face during 9-11. I've gotten kicked in the face and kicked in the mouth and kicked in the ribs during the financial mess. Now I know how to duck, right? Now I know how to duck and kind of, you know, and kind of adapt to what I'm seeing. And, you know, for me, the safest thing, I'm always looking for the safest way to trade. And for me, the safest way to trade right now is with these channels, right? You know, gap down, wait for a confirmation to the upside and if we get a gap up, waiting for confirmation to the downside, that's all I've been doing this week and it's been a week, but not the conventional way that we're looking for. You're not getting 5-10 pivots a day. We did on, I think it was on Wednesday or Thursday, a really, really aggressive day. Not only it was the day that we had that big rally off of Biden. So it was, I think, Wednesday, right? Wednesday we had that really, really big rally. We had some really great pivots to the downside, really great pivots to the upside. But I picked up a new toy, okay? I picked up a new toy this week and this is something that I started using sporadically about a week ago and I noticed myself trading it more and more waiting for channels to develop and this is, you know, and this is kind of going back to, like, my roots when I used to swing trade these small cap stocks. I started remount bouncing on the 60-minute channels small cap stocks this week. So what basically means is whatever stock you see in the morning on the pre-market high list, right? One of these stocks that are up 70%, 100%, right? I'm not chasing them, right? So the new trader, for example, would chase them and try to make, you know, 5 cents on them or 10 cents, whatever the case may be. I'm waiting for these things to come back down to the 60-minute channel and once they hit the 60-minute channel, right, and they don't go down, I get long, use the candle low as my stop, right? Candle my stop and wait for that bounce back and that thing worked over and over again. If you see me tweet these things out throughout the whole week, man, you're getting some amazing balances. I mean, really, really amazing balances that usually I would never even look at, but this is something I started focusing on a couple of weeks ago. I've been trying to trade one or two of these things a day. I think I traded two of these things on Friday. I forgot what to say. Oh, twice I traded ENZ, right? Just to give you an example. I traded ENZ on this bounce twice, just to give you an example. I traded it right here, okay? I traded it right here on a bounce and then I traded it right here on the remount, right here on the bounce. I think it gave me about 40, 45 cents in two trades, which was great, which was absolutely great. I kind of want to keep on doing that until we get that natural big, aggressive confirmation channel market back. You have to adapt, right? Again, if all you guys who do trade these small cap stocks, just remember it. They're not going to go straight up. Even INO, and INO was really, really funny on Friday. We were trying to skip this thing four separate times and it never, it never got to the 60 minute support. If you notice, you see this, guys, everybody see this orange line? This is what I mean about the 60 minute support. Any single time it gets to this 60 minute area, that's where I'm trying to bounce these small cap stocks, right? Every single time it bounces, bounces, bounces, bounces, bounces, bounces. When it remounts, it bounces again. It's something that I kind of picked up. I've been using this remount strategy for the beta names for a very, very long time and again, you know, you have to go, you kind of have to go where the money flow is, where your safety money flow is and again it's all about adapting. It's all about continuing to learn and it's all about having an open mind to trade other things. Because again, if you had this conversation with me three weeks, I would say, ah, small caps. Ha, ha, ha, right? Small caps. I'm just trading beta. Now I'm trading beta and I'm having pockets of interest on small caps as well. So going into this week, going into this week, it's hard to say I'm bullish or bearish. Again, every, every day, you know, every single day that I traded this week, the next day I said, well, you got to keep an open mind. The only thing that we do know, okay, is a macro area of the cues. That's the macro area we do know. We know the upside, the cues need to reclaim 221 on a closing basis and to the downside we know if the cues start losing 198. Yeah, if you thought this selling was aggressive before, if you look at the weekly chart, right, if they start losing 198, look how much room we have down. Right, we have room all the way down to like 184. So again, we know our macro areas of interest. You have 198 to the downside. We have 201 to the upside and everything else in between. Again, stick to the plan. You don't need to trade every single day. You don't need to, you know, you don't need to put your feet into the fire. The market is not there to entitle you to, you know, to earn or anything in between. It's there to really separate you from your money. So why not make it your interest as a responsible trading adult, okay, whether you're trading for 20 years or 20 weeks or 20 months, okay, and trade when you feel comfortable. Not when I'm comfortable, okay, I'm comfortable. I've been trading for nearly 21 years now. It's all about your individual comfortability. Know the market will still be there tomorrow and the next day and the next day in 200 days and 200 years after all long gone. Most important thing is what we want to kind of start concentrating on is the amount of headlines that new headlines that come out and we want to now start to concentrate on how the market reacts to these headlines. So eventually, just like anything else, the market will eventually go numb to this, okay, just the way it did with Zika, with SARS, with, what was it, mad cow disease, bird flu, and everything in between. Again, is that day tomorrow? Is that day a year from now? We don't know, but we have to start paying attention to that day that eventually the market starts slowing down on these headlines, the ranges start to contract, which is a good thing. Usually range contractions starting, we want that, okay, we want market structure to be there, okay. We don't care about, you know, we don't care about volatility. Again, I've said this all the time, a lot of new traders, they get confused between range expansion and volatility, right. I trade range expansion. What you're getting now is ridiculous volatility. Be careful what you get for, be careful what you ask for. So going into this week, again, we're looking for bounce plays, remounts. We are looking for macro areas, breakdowns on the 60 minute channels on all beta. Obviously if you look at all beta charts right now, you can see, you know, you can see the same thing. Macro wise, they're right in between. And a lot of you guys, again, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of you guys, all you do is trade from daily charts. So if you only trade from daily charts what are you doing in this market? Like what are you possibly doing in this market that's giving you an edge? Every single chart is compromised. Every single one. So why short the market if you're trading off daily charts? Because, again, stocks are down 12 days in a row. You can't buy the market because, well, your charts are not setting up the long side. The only thing that is truly giving you an edge right now is trading channels. That's exactly what I try to do every single day because, again, we know the landscape. We know the sentiment. We know the catalyst. We know the dangers. Now we're just looking to take advantage of all this information in between channels, top of the channel, bottom of the channel, look for reversal days, whatever the case may be, thinking, right? Thinking like responsible adults. So let me give you guys some ideas. Let me give you guys some ideas going into the new week. If you are planning to join us this week in the live webinar please get there at 9am. You can't show up two minutes into the open and say, what are we doing? First of all it's a ridiculous thing to do. And the most important point is you have to understand why these pivots work, right? You have to understand the moving parts. Again, I could feed you pivots to your blue in the face, you know, to the next of time. But if you don't understand the moving parts, what's the point? You're wasting your time. You're cheating your development. So please get there at 9am tomorrow morning. So let me give you guys some ideas that I do like that is not beta related. I kind of like this Uma Thurman, right? Uma Thurman. This Uma had a big breakout. Again, if you trade off daily charts, this is a pretty damn good breakout. So something like this you want to watch either for any type of weakness Monday morning into, again, rising 60 minute support. If it holds that, you want to go long. Or if it starts remounting Friday's highs of 1540, 1550, keep an eye on that. SDGR has been a pretty aggressive high flyer. If you notice it's been rejected here several times off this 10-day supply. If it starts remounting and reclaiming and building, right? Off this 44 level, you could get a move to 48, right? Keeps on getting rejected off this 44 level. So if it starts remounting, definitely keep an eye on that. Again, you couldn't get a dip on Friday to save your life. You really couldn't. It's the most amazing thing. And the stock has gotten a monster run. And I know a lot of people turn around and say, well, the stock is way overbought. Guys, remember there's no such thing as overbought. No such thing. Friday's closing price is fair value. It is. It's the last price that somebody's willing to pay for the stock. Again, can this stock have a back test at some point? Maybe tomorrow? Maybe Tuesday? Absolutely. Again, when the stock goes from 4 to 16, 100% of course, I'm not naive. But again, if it keeps on dipping, and this is where kind of the value play for tomorrow on this thing is, if this thing starts dipping into a rising 60-minute support, if you see it here, if you see exactly what I'm talking about here, all these channels are areas where it should bounce. So if it continues to do so, keeps on holding those levels, it continues to be bounce plays long. It really, for the macro point of view, you probably want to see one more day to kind of consolidate. But that's 16 level. If it starts rebuilding again, that's probably going to have a next leg up. So keep an eye on that. Another one, another one of these, another one of these corona plays is this VIR, very, very thin name. But if this thing starts reclaiming 47, 50, 48, man this thing has $8 of room. And the way this thing trades, it's again, trades thinner, but boy, oh boy, it does have $8 of range. So keep an eye on that. And the last one, keep an eye on this CVM. Again, I'm trying to give you guys a bunch of non-beta names. Keep an eye on this thing. This BAM here is going to be below 14. So if it can start remounting at 14, you never know it could wake up as well. So again, guys, it's all about experience. It's all about patience. Again, stay safe. Wash your hands. Just be smart. Again, we're in a very uncertain time, not only for the stock market, but we're in a very uncertain time in the period of, you know, our health. So it's very, very important to take care of your health, take care of your loved ones, take necessary precautions. Guys, God bless your trading with us this week. We'll see you in the live webinar. If not, I'll see you on the field. Guys, God bless. Have a great great. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list. Unlock our free PS60 Vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.