 Hello everybody, welcome to the money live stream and a lot of things to go or so let's just jump right in so first of all I think unless you haven't looked at your portfolio today You're probably doing pretty good And it's one of those great days these the days that I actually like to come on and talk about the markets because Everybody's a good mood why they had a good mood? Well, it's because numbers go up and that is fantastic and this was Just today that we saw that Bitcoin broke out above 50k now. I'm sure everybody knows this but Just so you know that people will take profits and They will continue to do that across time frames So even though we go up to 50k and it would just seem like well Why wouldn't they just hold the 60k or a hundred K or 300 K or whatever the new price prediction is? It's because there's people out there that will still take problems and we preach on that here But I mean it's whatever you want to do so today is a great day We actually went up to I think the top was fifty thousand two hundred fifty-five as it says here But of course this time goes on People have their limit orders in they have their sell orders in and once it hits that magical 50k number Then there's a sell-off and that usually happens in the big price points Now I'm here to predict every different sell point that's out there But it is a great day and it got me thinking today about this Which is pretty much the whole reason why we're here Which is I think we're way ahead of schedule and there's a couple of reasons why we're ahead of schedule Why I think we're really gonna crush it in this and this bull run. I think it may be pretty Astronomical and I hate saying that because it goes against everything that I'm trying to do which is calm people down and not get crazy, but There's some good evidence out there. Anyhow, so we actually talked about this nine months ago nine months ago I said, hey, there's something going on because we're way ahead of schedule and of course the Bitcoin cycles And we took a look at it. I took a look at in the four-year cycles Of course, there's always the having then we have a all-time high and a dip and a reset and just repeats and repeats and repeats And I took a look at the different having years 2012 2016 2020 and I said just this last one on 14th of February 2020 we were at $10,000 and Of course then in March or so we got the surveys of sickness and it dropped off a cliff And I don't really I mean you could you could discount that but it is what it was what it was But then as we went into the the having which is around May or so we were around $10,000 again Which was 50% of the all-time high of the previous cycle which when we in 2017 we had around 19 around 20k Okay, let's just keep it round was 19,770 something like that no big deal So we were at 50% and we took a look at 2016 and we were even less than that and of course we looked at 2012 was kind of wacky numbers because it was the first one But today, I mean if we take a look at it 50k of where we're at Oh, we're not even at the having even if we plateaued. I don't think we're gonna plateau Half of where we were at $67,000 that's roughly 33,500 that's where a roughly we should be or lower than that Going into the having and we're not We're at 50k and we've been Flexuating with nowhere near 33k down to 47 8 actually 44 45k somewhere around there. So again, I think it's just I mean We're massively ahead of schedule. That's just pretty much how it is again This was a video that we took a look at nine months ago and then just last week Last Sunday not this Sunday but the Sunday before last we talked about Lumpsum and going in a little bit more, you know a little bit more so instead of dollar cost averaging the reason I talked about that was because Again, we were talking about things are just ahead of schedule things could have gone terribly wrong and that's assessments We could have dropped 60% or 80% or went to zero which I it's like I have to say that I know I think it's the most ridiculous thing But you know, I talked about it for a couple reasons one. I thought you know, there's These ETFs are gobbling up everything we're gonna take a look at there was a video that's Anthony pomp liana was on pomp liano pump and He's made some pretty good points in a minute and a half And we'll take a look at those ETFs and just how it's just essentially eating up the Bitcoin world And then of course we'll take a look a little bit of macro and of course the jobs and M2 money supply and and of course the traditional markets we take a look at S&P 500 which we want a second It's everything just kind of lining up right now. So I said I go it would probably not Be too bad for me. I don't know what you're gonna do my official visor But to do a little lump sum action and there's a couple reasons first because I said if you do that before the halving You're doing pretty good and you still got time if you want to do that like the halving should be around April 20th correct me in the comment section and then You know when we're talking about this for the lump sum is also another reason why I said it And one of those big reasons is because if you lump sum now into a dollar cost averaging That's not what I'm telling you to do. I'm saying what I do is that you avoid these things called capital gains because here's what I worry about On this channel We talk about taking profits if you believe in taking profits at some point along your journey because you're like hey I need a kidney or hey I have massive credit card debt or hey, I'd like to Fill in the blank whatever else it is So in that situation you probably want to sell your crypto along the way and that could be Bitcoin That could be altcoins whatever else it is if you do that before one year's time in America I don't know where you're at But like for example in Germany if you do this less than a year You have short-term capital gains if you sell after a year in Germany as I am as I understand it There are no capital gains in America if you sell after a year These the capital gains rates that you actually have run a progressive tax scale, right? So for here the most you're gonna pay depending what state you're at 20% got it if you do this and sell Your crypto at some point within a less than a year. It's whatever brackets. You're at you could be at 54% or whatever it is you could be at 34% plus the state tax Which would means that you would have to pay 50% so the reason why I was talking about this last time these lump-sum videos Was just because I'm like hey There's problems afoot and these things could happen and nobody talks about taxes I mean very rarely on the crypto channels But it's something that you have to be aware of if you want to be a successful investor So there's that option of course and then also you can also do what I do up above my my enormous head I trust capital where I have everything and not everything. I have a Roth IRA which not a molder I get to actually Put into $7,500 and there are no capital gains on that even if I trade within the account You want to take a look at that links in the description remember? There is a limit to that and that is coming up on April 15th If you want to do those things for the fiscal year of 2023 anyhow Again, I was I think that we're ahead of schedule I think there's some some big plays be had and this is my man Dan gamberdello At crypto recruiter but CCV great guy great channel Can't say enough good things about him. There's a link in the description for his ex account Which he's got a lot of great information, but he he says this Every time since 2013 Bitcoin has closed a monthly candle above the bull market doors Bitcoin has broken all-time highs within one or three months. Let me say that again If it breaks out above the bull market doors We hit an all-time high within one or three months. What's an all-time high? That's $67,000 for Bitcoin Can you imagine what your alts are gonna do? We're gonna go crazy because remember It's great that Bitcoin is doing this But what comes next it's alts and that's just pretty much how it happens people put money into money to Bitcoin as it goes Up they take a little bit of profits They stick it into alts high cap or large cap and they take profits in that and put in a small cap And they just keep recycling and recycling so everything Bitcoin's going great. It is watch out for alts Anyhow Breaking the doors this cycle means Bitcoin closing above $57,000, which is not an easy thing to do But we've been doing pretty good. This has always occurred after the Bitcoin having again always occurred after Bitcoin having and you can see that at the end of the year but Imagine if it actually happens before April 20th of this year and we close above 57 K That would mean that March would be a heck of a month and we'll see so it leads you to think about this Well, if we're doing good, how are the other markets doing in the macro world? Well, S&P 500 just broke its all-time high S&P 500, which is buoyed by the magnificent seven essentially the NVIDIA's the Facebook's of the world's Amazons it's seven huge large stocks that do fine, which I'm not here to debate anything about that I'm just saying that if we take a look at the max of the S&P 500 We're at an all-time high for that Which means that's why we have a lot of that overflow from traditional finance getting into our market Which I have no problems with I have a big tent You guys can come in and do whatever kind of buying that you want Of course, you're gonna dump But that's just up to you and then we take a look at the M2 money supply This is from Ben's website and the cryptoverse. I didn't realize this but the M2 money supply of course Savings of positive money market securities and time deposits such as CDs and everything else in between We can see that actually we had started to print a little bit more. This is october 2023 We went up to 4.12 then in december 20.865 trillion I should say and then of course, I don't have any data for january But I'm just guessing maybe we print a little bit and that always helps with the liquidity in the markets Stanley drunken miller said it very easily. He says it's not about Everything that that's going on and the PNL and the different things and documents that you look up for for companies It's actually just takes a look at liquidity and what the federal reserve is doing If you follow the fed and see what liquidity is happening You can pretty much figure out what's happening in the markets. So I like that And now the coup de gras Was actually been going on. This was a pretty good piece From the pump anthony pompiano and he was on cmbc again And he said it pretty poignantly about why this is happening and just how much Traditional markets are in love essentially with bitcoin so take a listen to this this is about 45 seconds to a minute And we'll come back and we'll finish up because I think really comes down to the in and outflows of exchanges Which i'm going to show you some on-chain data in a second. So take a listen oops, oops now we've come back to Buying. Yeah. I mean, look the verdict's in right, uh, wall street doesn't just like bitcoin. They love bitcoin If you think of these assets, uh, there's been over 5500 etf launches in history Never have we had a fund get to three billion dollars in a um in the first 30 days black rock infidelity both just did it So two for the first time in history and then if you look at bitwise and 21 shares, uh, arc They're both going to hit a billion dollars this year or uh this week And so now you have four funds are going to hit a billion dollars of inflows But the most interesting part of this is the inflows are my doing these funds are doing 500 million dollars a day of net inflows But there's only 900 bitcoin that is actually coming into the daily incoming supply And so when you look at that's like 40 to 45 million dollars There's 12 and a half x more demand for bitcoin than what's being produced on a daily basis How much of this do you think is being generated by the etfs themselves? Well, I mean you just measure the actual net inflows right and so you can just see there is way more buying pressure You're saying three billion for black rock There's four billion now for black rock three and a half for fidelity And then you've got a bitwise and 21 shares will both hit about a billion this upcoming week crazy so You know There's of course when we talk about this we always would would say that you know when the etfs do get it do get approved We're going to see some fireworks and uh, I thought yeah, sure I think we'll you know at some point But I did not expect it to be this quick and this fast I thought it would take a couple months but honestly for everybody to kind of pile in but it looks like Looks like the message has been received loud and clear Also, I think there was some fantastic marketing done by black rock and fidelity these institutions to get to their high value clients to go Look, you need to get on this now Before the having comes in because there was a specific narrative and we're going to pump everybody's bags That's just speculation, but that's what we're good at here So again very interesting stuff from what palm says great little piece and I will just add this Great website in the block. It's all about flows right inflow outflow about what's happening as far as the different exchanges Great website. I don't I have a link. I don't have an affiliate link for it But it's in the block Dot com and we can take a look at the inflow volumes This is the total amount in dollars or tokens entering exchanges deposit wall It's all exchange refers to all sport exchanges and we're just taking a look at bitcoin itself Not about any kind of alt coins or anything else and we just see that over a 30 day change We have a negative 70 percent negative 70 percent of inflow volume going into exchanges now There is also one thing to be said which is you know coinbase They are the the custody provider of most of those ETFs. I'm not for sure exactly how that works unless that's a separate entity I believe it actually is as far as a corporation goes So I'm not for sure that it actually would say that for inflows or outflows I really care about this stuff inflow transaction count. It's all like good stuff. You can take a look at it What I care about is this I care about total flows total flows the sum of the amount entering the exchange plus the amount leaving an exchange This is an indicator of overall exchange activity aggravated exchange refers to all supported exchanges out there so In black we can see the price Which 46,000 and I will just warn you that right here It only goes to february 11th if i'm not mistaken. It's february 12th today. So we don't have data for that but you're gonna see how Yes, go moving backwards in time The aggravated exchange is how much they have on there. It has fluctuated quite a bit But my little peak here what three four days ago and seems to just drop off precipitously Not to say that it's not the lowest point, but I would be Very interested to see how much it is at the cob or close of business today for february itself because it looks like a lot of This assets or bitcoin is being taken off and lastly I will just say one last piece which is Under the quick view as far as with bitcoin There's one big piece And the biggest piece is this Holder is making money at current price. Did you know at this current price 94 percent? 94 percent are actually in the money And if we can take a look at just who is holding Over 80 percent of those people Are actually holding Bitcoin and not selling What does that mean if you got a lot of demand, you know a lot of sellers what usually happens I think you know the answer to that and then lastly just to finish up people aren't selling We take a look at the bitcoin average transaction fee link in the description We can see also that uh Transaction fees were actually quite high in december look at this 37 bucks now ordinals do play a part very well I can understand that Either people aren't using ordinals or people aren't selling or a combination of both We're gonna see how it's been quite a little drop off a little bit of a peak here say this in uh Well, this was the beginning of february, but as we can see as time is going on We are really low as far as transaction fees to a low of four dollars and 18 cents Which is how it should be in my personal opinion and i'm very happy with that And of course if we take a look at the biggest gas hog out there ethereum Ethereum reclaims its rightful clown Crown as being the highest fees out there For a layer one solution and that's it for today. So look again I think we're way ahead of schedule I think if you're here at this point and you've been dollar cross averaging or lump summing or whatever you're doing I think you did a great job and now it really comes down to Do you want to at some point sell what are your price points and what is your plan if you don't have a plan It's okay. There's a link in the description for Where I talk about selling 80 of my crypto and you can check that out There's it's there in every single video from there and go and take it from that piece But that's it for today. So look if you like today's video give it a thumbs up consider subscribing Everything we talk about is time sensitive, especially moving into the having