 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. The urban local bodies in Tamil Nadu will soon have the elections in a single phase on February 19th. After a delay of 10 years, citing various reasons during the previous AD in Kerala, the local bodies have not had any representatives. To discuss more about the elections, their outcomes and prospects, we have with us Professor Ramu Manivanan of the University of Madras. To begin with, the local body polls, the urban local body polls are scheduled on February 9th. So with the BMK government completing only 9 months and the interim sector being ruled out, what are the issues you think will be decided on for this election? I think like the first and foremost thing is like the general disaffection with the previous government was reflected in the last local government elections as well. That was one of the reasons why the previous government led by Arapati Palanissamy, the ADMK government did not complete the election process to the several local bodies in Tamil Nadu itself and then the urban local elections. So that was clearly an indication of the way that the local body elections would turn against the then ruling government. So that's the first advantage for the present government itself. And as you said, it is only 9 months and they have not earned any major, what you call as the disaffection or lack of sympathy or support for the government. They have not earned the hillbill of the masses in the 9 months. This can happen, even in a few months this can happen, but this did not happen in the case of DMK and nor I would say there's a tremendous goodwill and not like that, but the general assessment is that the government is working, the government is there and the government is visible. And so that's a very important aspect that goes in favour of the DMK government led by Mr Stalin at this time. And another fact is that in the left over local bodies and the rural areas and the DMK had virtually swept in the few months back actually. So that was much earlier one and that was another indication. And so I suppose now the urban local bodies also it is most likely to go in favour of the DMK because of the trends as it indicates and also like you know there's any local elections or the by-elections held between the two polling points as the tenure of the government. Usually it goes in favour of the ruling party but in this case in the local government is set and they also know both the DMK as well as the people know if the government's program has to reach or like you know to put it in another sense like you know the money has to flow, the government funding has to reach to the lower and local government and they need to have a kind of undisturbed flow of the programs and the money and the projects. So they are also campaigning on the same ground. So this is my most likely to attract the voters and particularly the parties to the values of the DMK government at this time. Yes sir as I said the government is visible in the last five months on different occasions of flooding or even during the pandemic, the second wave of the pandemic as well. But the ADMK is taking forward a campaign in which they accuse the DMK of not fulfilling the airport promises which were assured during the last election campaign. So what do you make out of it? Will that turn it into a vote or will that help the DMK? See I think if this campaign saying that like you know the government has not fulfilled the promises like you know after four years of the government being in power if you say that thing it gains that credibility but if the government is in power for only nine months and then if you say that the poll promises have not been fulfilled but like you know this is the argument doesn't go the full length it goes halfway actually. Why I say it's a halfway it may convince the ADMK voters and supporters but it might not really convince the neutral voters because like you know the neutral voters are going to look at the other aspects I mean like I'm not saying not fulfilling a promise is not a right thing for the DMK but you know DMK is also measuring the challenges of such promises during this nine months actually with the covid situation and the financial crisis and they are trying to understand about their own promises and the challenges surrounding the promises but I would still think but if by four years if the government has not fulfilled its promises and the DMK should stand to face the test of the old test but like you know in the nine months and it is too early to kind of like you know judge them and throw them out actually from the local government actually so I think like the benefit of the doubt could certainly go with the DMK then with the opposition and then opposition I don't mistake the opposition's argument because like you know they are doing the right thing by saying what DMK has not been able to do and it is their job the opposition is meant to say the opposition is meant to find out what are the full promises and what has been fulfilled and what has not been addressed and like you know at least the DMK should talk about these things and should say and explain to the people and to the government saying that like you know where we are able to meet those promises and where we are not able to meet and what are the challenges like in case of the need actually the government is trying its full length to see where then in case of 1000 rupees to the women and 1000 rupees to the women has support in the rural areas so I think these are all like you know big budget issues particularly like you know Honorarium or a support funding of rupees 1000 it's a huge budget is needed so they may have said it before getting the grasp of the entire challenge but I suppose now like you know if this argument is still unanswered by the three and a half years and the DMK will have to explain that after three years. So do you see the split in the opposition unity with BJP contesting alone the PMK contesting alone and of course the ADMK is also contesting alone will this factor support the DMK or favour the DMK because in the last two elections the 2019 assembly elections I mean 2019 general election and the assembly elections the ADMK was burdened by the presence of BJP to be honest or there was a general opinion so with ADMK uploading their burden do you see an improvement in the tally of ADM? No with or without unity the contest is all between DMK and ADM and then or DMK and DMK and the DMK and the other opposition party it is not if all the opposition parties are also united and they would fair much worse than what it is today actually because even at the assembly elections and the parliamentary elections the support mechanism is at the top of the system not at the bottom actually and not at the bottom means like you know at the people's level and the ground level they are all committed only to the party and then the leaders and the political parties have an alliances therefore you are able to transfer about like you know 60% of votes not more than that but that 80% of votes will stay with the party only in the local government election and they are very strong with the local affiliation and but actual question you should ask is that is gathering I mean they are now getting double digit from a single digit they're getting a double digit and like you know they might even get a triple digit in certain places so that number we have to watch and then another thing to watch is that like you know within the ADMK because the cadre also know that like you know it's going to be a long wait for the party to come back in power and then the party is already split between the ADMK led by Adhapadipal Nisami the what you called is like you know Aamamuka AMMK led by Sashikala's nephew then Mr. Dinakaran actually so you have to see that division that is much more acute crisis for the ADMK than the split with the BJP and the other parties but then Dinakaran's AMK might also gather some seats in certain places will also cut into the vote bank of the ADMK in many many places particularly in the southern districts it's very and then in Tanjur and Madurai and Saini and then like you know in certain other areas they are very strong Prichi and these places and so you have to count that factor and ultimately BJP is not very sick BJP strength comes from the power of the center and then like you know the stick that they wield in their hands against the ADMK so like you know it is not based on any other thing but they are mobilizing that mobilization is like you know not sufficient to pose a threat or challenge to the return of the I mean like you know the DMK gaining a greater supremacy of the local bodies in the urban areas. That's all we have time for today. Thank you for watching.