 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David White Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 177-873-7618 now David White And welcome all to another excellent addition of the power trading hour it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at this time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So what do we have is this this can't be right? I keep on hearing everybody else Say something so I'll take a look at it. Anyway, we'll just do the S&P This Dow had moved in an hour, so I'm assuming my quotes are off on it Maybe somebody in the den can post a Dow quote the NASDAQ's been moving. It's back down under 16,000 15,997 We had some massive reversals earlier in the day Some stuff that really looks like blow-off tops We'll have to wait until the close for confirmation But we have a lot of them. I've been stalking a a company for years waiting for it to top out because It's been my great white whale and I threw a I threw a little bit of a Of a what is that? Oh not a spear What is that? It's like a spear What do you call those things you put in the whale I don't know. I'll think of it somebody in the den will bring it up Harpoon that's what it is Anyway, I harpoon my great white whale today, so we'll see how it closes out here It's just a couple of bucks under where it needs to close But these things have been all over the place made some money early in the day in the newsletter with a A long on AMD I got out. I thought it was gonna go to about 162 50 went to 161 88 before it gave it up So made a few bucks in that but they're not a bad day trade if you can get a Couple of percent or something out of something AMD right back to flat on the day We'll look at some of these charts later But it's really gonna be what the close is of course I kind of discount Monday and Tuesdays after options monthly Options expiration because those are always options roll over days So you've got to be kind of knowing that maybe there's something else going on But uh, we've there we've been kind of tap dancing all over Probably one of the most important signals in the market and that is the TLT The bond index it's kind of the easiest way to take a look at it Uh, but what can I say? 146 50 has been that line in the sand and we're all over it again volumes a little lighter Now this would probably not be such a big deal if the Fed hadn't thrown more money At this market in the last three trading fork trading days now they started last Wednesday Uh, and we didn't have much of an effect We've got about 94 of the market selling Or in a sell mode. We've got a handful of stocks like apple and microsoft and Amazon holding the entire rest of the market up I don't think I've seen anything as as thin As this market going back to christmas of 1999 Um And everybody just waiting to get to 2000 uh because cap gains were so much cheaper So what do you got here? Yeah, could you say maybe you got some dark cloud cover on amazon? um, certainly a pattern out here that looks rather ugly But again days not over We got to uh, we got to go back to our uh, what is that cowboy movie? That curly in it because all I remember is him saying Uh Spear not a spear. Okay an orb Okay, uh curly who said uh, they you know the guy asked him. He said you killed anybody today Day ain't over yet So when we look at that, but I think it's giving it up. We've got so many big Stocks out here Like amazon and the others You got to keep an eye on it now For the most part they've just bought apple and driven the entire index says up but Like I said, I'm going to say 90% Of the stocks that I saw come in on friday were on a sell signal of some kind Doesn't mean they'll bounce They did for a very short amount of time today But uh, this may be one of the biggest closes of the year And that is not a short term timeframe, but maybe a medium Time which is about as long as we get anymore But uh, we'll keep an eye on it, but uh, I'm looking for a lot of stocks To possibly give up the ghost before the end of the day And you know you going into a uh, shortened week monday tuesday wednesday thursday were off fridays a half day I think right fridays half day city slickers. That's what it is. Curly couldn't remember. Anyway, uh fridays a half day I think So you don't have much going on always has been in the past. I didn't look but I should TFNN normally is not open. I don't think we are again this year Uh, but uh, you know what kind of a light volume pullback um We had the spike on news It's given at least half of that back and most of the stocks I'd like I said about 90 of them have given it all back of the big pop this morning From powell being the next fed president yet again I don't think there's I'd say the chance of him not making it are about one percent So we're going to have some continuation the market kind of liked it They ran everything they could Uh earlier in the day, they're still trying to push it back up. Maybe they'll get it by the end of the day but this is not a This is not the easy slam dunk that it has been in the past The throw a bunch of money at the market have it pop up and have it stick Um, like I said, so many of these stocks are ready have rolled kind of back under It's just the big ones that are still up apples a little bit. Let's take a look at uh, the usual suspects out here with microsoft A a kind of a bigger signal in microsoft which it's back into the trading day of friday Volume's probably going to be a little bit bigger Um, would I be shorting microsoft here? No, I think there are a lot of stocks uh that have absolutely insane pees Uh that also have uh pretty much insane holders of those stocks And those are the ones that are probably going to see the big swings If we are having some kind of Big market event, but as I said, uh tlt watch that a close under 146 50 is a big deal When we look at some of the other stuff, let's take a quick look at the spies um Also kind of ugly looking um We're just kind of going sideways any clothes back below Uh the three by three, I would say would be a big signal for shorting the actual indexes themselves That may take a couple of days to get going if today was a blow off top Be back in a minute Are you grinding in the market? 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That's right Information having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time The test profile scanner is the premier market profile base scanner Powered by its acclaimed task proprietary algorithms This feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks etf's commodities futures and forex This powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades Before they happen for a limited time You can save 100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade And you still get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk level the playing field with the task profile scanner Which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com sign up today Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 As we return One of the things uh, we're gonna look at here a little bit of history On this day in 1995 while disney pictures releases the pixar animation studios Production of toy story the first major motion picture that is created completely by computer generated animations Uh breakthrough film toy story set the standard for all future computer animated films a follow that uh catapulted pixar into a household name and of course, uh my journey into computer graphics started uh at comdex and Back in 19 or not comdex in a sig graph that was the special interest group for graphics I want to say 1985 ish anaheim california Uh, so I went that started getting involved in computer graphics, but the uh The interesting part to me was that in 1985 They were using macintoshes to generate Uh the first video and I think they used uh 40 macintoshes all network together uh to make the first uh real Well, I would say uh story kind of animation before there was Some other stuff. It was called uh Luxor the uh And you might remember it. It was the animated A desk lamp But it started using something called ray tracing which nobody had heard at at the time Uh, which it made it look photorealistic Of course now you buy a new uh 3080 card from nvidia and it does it real time Back then it took them. I think a year To generate what was about a minute and a half of video uh, and it uh There were other companies out there doing that on on uh mega computers But nobody doing it on something small and eventually I think a lot of the stuff got moved over to bigger computers anyway Uh, but uh, even just the original modeling and a lot of that stuff was done on smaller macintoshes at the time And of course that led to Apple actually getting involved and financing pixar to a certain extent over time and of course later on bringing it all back under kind of one roof With disney after they sold it off. I'm trying to remember exactly how big a percentage Steve jobs had of it, but uh, if you ever wondered whether steve jobs was a A gregarious guy that liked other folks He used maybe the worst Um way of Literally ripping everybody off at pixar um To save them because they were almost out of money Uh, when they made this movie in a couple of years before and he actually Got them some money but ended up making them give up all the shares of their stock before it went public So all the people that worked there except maybe the handful of the three or four biggest guys Actually made money Off pixar going public and all the rest and becoming bought out by disney But uh, yeah, he was a shark Uh, don't let anybody ever tell you that he wasn't Um, he was or I would say after the mid 80s He became very business savvy After people ran him out of his company and he was uh, he was willing to take no prisoners after that but uh, yeah a lot of people It kind of revered him as a god He was a man and had massive flaws in his character. One of them was the way he treated all the folks at pixar but Now we have computer graphics everywhere and it makes me sick I loved the I loved it when it added to the story, but now when everything's a cartoon Uh, or not a cartoon, but a uh comic book story Which isn't much of one Yeah, it leaves me cold on this day in 1995 That's it Dreamworks came, uh, I think in 2005 if I'm not mistaken So it was long after this Maybe early 2000s Uh To what else do we have going on here? We've got some emails. So go ahead and looking at that Get back here We looked at microsoft, uh, netflix have a question. Is there uh, You kind of think that they're going to get beat up over time with, uh Competition does netflix actually have anything that you think Can set them apart? Um, everybody can hire people including writers and actors and studios In nothing new netflix one thing that makes them better than amazon or amazon and uh prime video and Disney Uh, is the efforts they've gone to Uh, subtitle not subtitle. What do they call it? Uh voice voice over um for foreign countries Uh, the uh, uh, the audio stream of it so that it looks really well They've worked a great deal on that technology Uh, if anybody's watched the english language version of squid games You can see just how good they've gotten On that and if there is a technical edge that netflix has over just may having good content It's probably doing that and being able to sell Uh, the products for you know, you add another 20 or 30 thousand dollars to the budget And you can show these things everywhere and people will watch them So yeah, there is a little bit to that side of it. I still suspect though that right now How many good things have you really seen come out of Uh any of these guys lately? I noticed that one of the biggest new shows was again an old show dexter from showtime Just about everything I see Is a callback. I see that uh What uh, it was uh, what is that crime scene csi las vegas Back again. There aren't a whole lot of people They're desperate for just about anything and I think that's the it's not specific to netflix But I think that's the achilles heel of all these folks is they're just making too much content That is average or sub average and not enough stuff that really stands out from the crowd Do Yeah industrial light magic they were all inside I never did anything with them Uh my producer brings them up. Um, I was much more with the guys in hollywood Uh than the guys up north in san francisco But uh, yeah skywalker ranch. I did go there once to install some stuff But that was about it Anyway, uh netflix down not a lot of volume again It's going to be a short and weak keep an eye out for that. Uh, we'll go back and look at a lot more Charts as we return. 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That's where support is going to come in But uh that you couldn't really hold uh above this uh move Thursday friday or today And the reversal on it was so wicked And fast and it really hasn't bounced and then bounced since then that's it now One of the other reasons why is I went long this morning Uh pre market got a good price on it and sold it off And made a few bucks on it up here, but This was the one this is The most heavily shorted stock and it could not Hold up today couldn't keep the uh the bears on the other side of the fence so to speak So to me, this is one of the bigger indicators out here I looked at it nothing more than a day trade if it was going to hold up But once everything started rolling Um, I got out and found another short Uh that I thought was one of the ones I've been waiting for a couple years To hit highs But uh, man, what else can you say? Uh one, you know 153 152 88 That's kind of where you're looking for when you start hitting that my guess is you're going to get uh the lion's share of the downside Of amd fairly quickly And I don't know if that's going to be on black friday sales numbers, which are probably going to be Uh sick Um pretty sickly uh And poor even compared to last year's mostly because the the product's just not there Uh, it's sitting on the uh On the docks in in long beach or more likely just going around in circles out there in the in the uh pacific ocean But we shall see But yeah, you don't need it more than a couple bucks on a lot of these things Uh to confirm the signal and the question is whether or not we're going to continue to see people try to Throw more money at this market before the end of the day As I said, probably the the thing that it would concern me the most Is just how much money has been thrown at this market and had little effect. It's having now on the tlt. It's all about We'll get back to this 146 50 your 146 71 you're right on that line and Could it go the other way? I think steve was saying it, you know, you could make some cases on either side Uh, the downside is that we did go higher this morning Gave a lot of that up in almost all the other stocks We may be a little higher than that But none of this stuff really looks like we have a lot of people Piling in got another question from ron on work day um This is kind of it. There's one of the nice things about The three by three is you can really see just how quickly and when you're on the opposite side that you get the high volatility in these Down again on friday, of course on big volume today, not so much, but uh, you know 270 265 Range back there is support. So you want to keep an eye on that Uh, but I'm thinking That you could easily come back to this 246 45 On this now yesterday our fridays down volume Was just huge and I don't think it's gonna abate Fairly quickly you're kind of down at fridays lows But I think you're gonna stumble on back down you have Busted through the september third high at 1.3 million shares With about 6.7 million shares on friday. So this is not looking good Uh, so what else do we have here? Uh, bby and I like to see that the you know that it would give up more than this um Again, I've seen this stock go up into christmas with horrible sales Only to be absolutely blown out in earnings around the 15th of january And this is kind of looking like that pattern. Uh, it's still up. Got a lot of volume out here I've been in them. I just don't see that much stuff moving. Maybe they're moving more stuff online than they have in the past But other than iphone sales Not a lot of stuff moving out of at least the two that I Eventually drive through But that's it eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight. I look forward to your call And what else do we have out here question on adobe? Um, yeah, that's pretty nasty um This is what you call dark cloud cover Uh, you don't have the volume quite yet and again generally you don't get the volume And you don't get the big price destruction until after you break through Uh, the trend line, which I like the best the three by three Uh, so you don't have anything and there's a lot of these big stocks that have had big runs Uh, that there you can't really say that there's any big signal. It's the other 90 percent It's kind of the iceberg risk in this market where 90 percent of the stocks are not doing anything The ones that everybody talks about are the ones that Are holding up fairly well in the short term uh question on invidia to to to nvda As we look at that, um Yeah, I kind of looks like amd and some of these others, but Uh, I think invidia is probably I said it earlier I think around noon in the den and that is uh invidia is the best house in a bad neighborhood Um amd is probably the second Uh Nicest house but still in a bad neighborhood today Uh to to to to to Where do I see netflix going short term in f x Well, you're underneath But you're also right at the support line So, you know, this thing didn't really it's more about the market. Uh, if we have a bad close tonight um Probably about 6 20 I could see that back in this if the market You know, this is going to be market driven And half of every trade if you go back historically correlates to the broader markets not Just this about 25 of it generally has to do with the stock about 25 of it has to do with the sector Uh, and about 50 has to do with the uh the actual broad markets So the question is, you know, if these Continue to kind of break down That's going to be it now the one thing the market has going for it is the fed and the fed putting all its money I suspect an apple and driving it up higher Uh, but the rest is all selling off So I would say the rest I would say 90 to 95 percent Are on sell cities Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv to hang out here Uh question in the den uh with the depth ceiling issue Um get kicked down the uh road. I think that's actually going to be the big lever Uh to hold up any of those gigantic four or five Trillion dollar spending bills um So I think that there's going to have to be some kind of agreement Uh coming up the mines. Maybe they'll let them spell spend a trillion Uh, but even that I think it's kind of high If you if you if joe mansion just isn't flat out lying Uh, he has no desire to sign on to any of it. He's running for governor And he even gonna get it If this goes through and the question is whether needs the money Or he wants the prestige of being the governor and all indications at least as far as I can say is he wants to be the governor So we shall see anyway. Uh, keep a close eye on here. Uh, we're up about 24 points on the uh on the s and p Uh actually pretty good for the Pretty big sell-off You can make a case that everything that happened today is options related with options rollover So we really want to see what happens at the close, but I mean the 90 percent of the stocks that people don't talk about are None of them bounced After the sell-off today and that continues to say that this market is incredibly thin And I would say apple is kind of getting ready for a blow-off top Although we have not had one quite yet. It may take uh into the first of the year Uh for those, uh A couple of these big stocks, you know, they may even sell off Uh, if we're gonna have some kind of meaningful high today But again the the reasons I was looking at it earlier as a blow-off top, uh are things like the Gold being down 46 47 points today That's not a good sign For the markets themselves Uh, generally you get a sell-off in gold and a sell-off in the equities themselves too When you get this big of a smack the reversal out here tells me something and again we see, uh A close day at 145 50 on the tlt And i'll probably be pulling the ripcord on a lot of shorts instead of Uh, just picking one that I thought looked particularly, uh over burden today beat seven seven nine two seven six six four eight. Yeah, could it be a problem? It could Um, but I think a bigger problem would be Uh for at least for them We'll we'll leave right and wrong Uh to the seminary and we'll talk about what makes the market go higher and lower And I think, uh, the thing that could gut shot this market is spending three or four or five trillion dollars And seeing any cash Get sucked up and hoovered by the government and nothing left to spend for business now A handful of companies like tech stocks will be able to weather it But uh, if you have a company that needs a lot of cash and you have 10 15 percent margins you can get in it Uh, the government's gonna hoover it all up. Uh, that's going to make interest rates absolutely spike Uh, the inflation we've seen so far this year Pale in comparison to all of it Uh dogs and cats living together real wrath of god stuff If you know what I mean Anyway, uh, no real clear signal yet Uh, and again, we got about what an hour and 15 minutes left I think it's going to be the last 30 minutes today on whether or not a lot of people I think they're thinking about going into Thanksgiving. They're thinking. Well, yeah, maybe we got a reversal today But you know what they won't sell it off into Thanksgiving But uh, just nothing Looks good except about five stocks eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Uh, one of the other things that has me thinking Uh, that there's something bigger going on is what I've talked about and on Friday Probably didn't put in correctly Is that the uvxy on a monday didn't absolute crater now It's not what it was earlier in the day when the market rolled over But it is not under any kind of trend line out here and actually it looks okay Uh for having some kind of low I don't know if that is people buying puts Into the long weekend thinking maybe that's what they need to look at or something bigger That i'm unaware of But we had the bounce we had the pow bounce gave it up almost What in an hour? Everybody keeps trying to drive the market higher Uh, but we continue to see sellers. So I don't know be interesting Uh To like I said, I I think uh, I think that's why they play baseball games to the end, right? They just don't say that's going to be it. They wait for it Uh, IWM IWM is sweet set for long-term bounce through Christmas Uh new I don't think so, but let's take a look As I say, I don't think Uh any of these are really set up for a nice bounce for christmas I think uh the idea that the government's spending huge amounts of money This is the companies that get worse they hit worse Uh, if the tlt heads lower and the government spends more money These aren't the guys that can go out and sell a bunch of shares They have to either liquidate or not liquidate. They have to either dilute what they have Or go hat in hand to a bank and try to get a loan So no, I'm thinking that if there anything's going to do okay It's going to be high tech which doesn't have to worry about interest rates for the most part I mean their sales will be down a little bit But for the most part they can just go to the well Print some more shares and then that's it. Um, it's the rustle The small caps that really get hit by printing shares and of course really can't Are not in the position to get a lot of money loaned to them And if you go out and spend three or four trillion dollars There ain't gonna be any money for them at all So I I think that's one of the reasons why we've seen uh the IWM come off of its highs Is they know any kind of slightly higher interest rate is going to make these things Uh, the pariahs in a market compared to technology that doesn't need the cash That has people throwing money at them Opposed to these guys going hat in hand or diluting their shares Uh, when does tax selling happen normally by the 30th of the month? So Yeah, I've heard a couple of people talk about thinking that What we saw today was tax selling into the bounce But I mean we've seen we've seen it really last three or four days But tax selling I would say 80 of it comes from The street guys and that comes from the comes to them before the last day of November Which is there almost everybody on wall streets taxable year ends on November, uh on the last day of November and Guess what it also does It means how they get their bonuses pay It's the closing price of the end of this month So or some people start to uh exit stage left a little early and see Today's close is important back in America Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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You can call 877-518-9190 That's 877-518-9190 Catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of tfnn also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on tfnn And as we get ready to wrap up the show we got a little bit more bounce up 27 points on the S&P cash And a little bit of push from the rest of it. So, yeah What do we have we've got a market that You know at least for the indexes that are going to make them look good the rest of the market looks poor But yeah, people are probably going to go home for thanksgiving and see the indexes up and that's all they'll look at her Here about is the Dow or the Nasdaq or something like that Um, yeah, we had a day where we could have had a very big signal Looks like uh, they're going to push this market now. Maybe we roll over before the end of the day, but Yeah, I'm going to say that this is again always could have been just a market event based on options roll over Uh, but uh, we shall see anyway the clothes will tell us If we get back down around Uh 47 15 on the S&P 500 that's a pretty good signal, but uh, my guess is you're not going to get it Everybody's back in the Fed's probably pumping more cash Uh, it's going to be problematic other than the fact that most stocks Not doing very well Again, um, maybe we see the tlt blow up Everything I see says it wants to go to 141 Uh, the Fed keeps throwing cash at it. It keeps going lower um But again, it's not their money. So I guess they don't care Uh, but that's it. Anyway, uh other questions out here Uh, we looked at microsoft We looked at some other ones, uh ibb from jared Welcome jared. I don't think we've gotten an email from you now I mean this thing did nothing other than sell off early in the day and now it's a doji out here um You know a lot of these things sold off I want to talk about tax selling kind of You know if you're not doing well now Probably not doing well before the end of the year Generally, these are good buys At the first of next year after all the selling's done Uh, we're at a time now so when you can not when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same back channel same back time