 Let's get started. Let's just zoom through these risk warnings. So certainly an interesting week last week and probably going to be another one this week. Not sure how many of the participants here had trades in Swiss francs, certainly volatile, not in any sense of the word a typical occurrence in currency markets. I've never seen a 40% move in a currency like that. That was absolutely unprecedented. We may as well start by just having a quick look at the... I think we all probably know the fundamental situation behind it, namely that peg with the euro and obviously the Swiss National Bank keeping that peg on to try and artificially devalue their currency. This is the range we currently find ourselves in after this absolute crash down from that 120 peg. It's difficult to properly look at a daily chart now, but if we do scroll back, this has made it a bit difficult to see. Essentially what had happened is that we... This is very difficult. As you can see, we did actually have a range in the euro Swiss with a kind of higher floor, which was close to sort of 122. That's sort of a 121.80 maybe. We sort of fell through that. From the height of the web where the prices have been trading, move from about this sort of range. You can see prices sort of dip below here. Then the kind of crisis period sort of entered. It wasn't really October, but I would say sort of November. You can see prices really started hugging that peg. There was nothing even close to getting up to that form of 121.80 to 122 type cyber area that had been consistent trade for four odd years, buying in around the 120 and pushing prices higher again. You can see something kind of changed. Most people's understanding is that that was the ECB, the European Central Bank, just getting closer and closer to quantitative easing. That European Court of Justice ruling was the final thing that triggered the SMB to change their minds about the peg. They felt they wouldn't be able to sustain it were there a big barrage of euros selling if there was a QE program and they lifted the peg and preempted it. This is hard to see here, but what we're looking at here is akin to a triangle pattern in a way where you have a tall initial resistance, but every time you come off the floor you just don't quite make it back up to where you formerly were. When you have that kind of triangle pattern, this is essentially the floor, and it just wasn't the power to get back up each time. The dynamics behind this triangle pattern is that eventually, typically, prices break down below that floor because you can just see the buyers are trying to hold on, but the sellers and sellers are getting more and more aggressive until eventually it goes down. Tricky trade now, I've got this range that we're working on at the moment, and it'd be a brave sell probably to be buying euros against the Swiss franc prior to the European Central Bank meeting this week. That obviously is the big event risk that we have this week, event risk, event potential. The big one to be looking at obviously is the euro, and we dropped as low as 115 which is multi-year lows as we look back, really a monthly chart's needed. We can see we had this kind of rising trend line that I'd mentioned the prior week, that gave way, and so really what we're looking at is this floor from 2005 which we have moved below, but if we can hold the month above there, there is some chance of the euro recovering. But again, it's a similar looking pattern on a longer time scale where there's no trend line that particularly works here, but it's that general theme of here's a floor that's been giving way, here's a declining resistance where each time we've got down there, it's just not quite been able to do as much. So if this does give way, to me this is pretty big, and we could even be seeing something along the lines of this is crude, objective, where finding an objective from a pattern, but it could be something along the lines of this. So obviously the first big barrier is parity which people were calling for in the European debt crisis, but never happened because Mario Draghi stepped in there and saved the currency saying he'd do all that it takes. Now he's doing all that it takes to devalue the currencies. The things have changed. The parity looks increasingly likely, but should this pattern play out, we could be looking right back down to these values seen in 2002 and even down below that. So that's just a little indication of the gravity of what's going on here. So in terms of this meeting, there are high expectations going into this. That can be seen by A Euro 115, but also B Germany 30 at record all-time highs has hit 10,300 as of last week as of Friday with this huge breakout here, break of this triangle pattern. I have similar objectives that I've set up here, better seen on the daily chart where this was the kind of triangle. So I've discounted this spike at the bottom, used this low here. That connects nicely with these two lows. Used the height of the pattern projected from the breakout area. That would 100%, so that whole height there from this breakout would put us at 10,800. So this breakout's already started to happen. We're already at new all-time highs. Now of course we could see some pullbacks before getting there, but it seems like the race is on now. So even if we get a bit of a disappointment at the meeting on Thursday, maybe no QE is announced or the sort of German resistance means that the program's not as big as some would hope. We could get a bit of a pullback in the Germany 30, but the race is on now, especially if they do announce just something, then that would indicate that probably even if the Eurozone does sort of keep declining and we dip further into deflation, then they'd have the scope to expand the program and so that would be what's needed to get us up to that kind of objective. Equally a failure of that objective. We do roll over and break below these kinds of lows. That's a big bearish sign. If you have a patent that tells me it's objective, roll over. That's a good indication that we could be the beginning of a much larger decline in stock markets. So interesting either way. The other obviously, Euro-wise, the other thing that we've got going on at the weekend is the Greek elections. It's politics and all we can really go on is the polls which imply that Cereza, the anti-austerity party is topping them, Samaras' party, the Prime Minister is sort of catching up a bit and so there could be some element of the sort of Scottish referendum effect where people vote one way in the polls, but then when it actually comes down to it do something a bit more conservative. It remains to be seen but it's tough times for most, I say, but a lot of Greeks with these kind of austerity measures and they probably want a change. So good chance for Cereza we voted in, but what we have to keep in mind is they have said they want to keep the Euro so maybe the risk doesn't even so much come from them per se. Today it's more almost the other European nations and how they react to any change in policy domestically that Cereza introduced. Most likely the other European nations will do what they can to keep Greece inside the Eurozone despite all the tough rhetoric from the likes of Germany. They won't want the kind of associated political instability but it could set the precedent for other nations. I think, well, if Greece is just bailing out of its sort of IMF mandated ideas to kind of clean up then maybe we'll do the same. So particularly looking at Spain and Italy. Spain's done a lot more than Italy but a lot of people inside those countries are hurting from those measures and so they could easily follow suit from Greece and decide to vote in someone a bit more friendly to their short term means. So technically we've got this big breakout. We're at all-time highs so it's difficult to find resistance other than sort of objectives from the Fibonacci and the likes. Support's a bit easier. We've got support immediately from this former all-time high. That'll be worth looking at. Basically there's 10-100, 10-09-5 level below there. This next peak which is kind of the big area that kind of broke through with these kind of looking candlesticks and this big reversal that we sort of plunged down after that SMB, the bar call and then managed to pull higher and then rallied on Friday. So that would be another area should we get through the 10-100. But given this breakout and the general scope of things I wouldn't expect prices to get down to this kind of low that we saw 300 points down on Thursday but that should we do that. That again would be another area of support coinciding with this trend line again. The UK managed to rally nearly to the same extent as in Germany but definitely seen a bit of a turnaround. Got a bit of kind of on the daily chart we've got a bit of RSI, British Divergence, formed a new low but a big spike reversal on the daily candlestick coincided with a higher low formed on the RSI, pushed through this 50 level indicating in a kind of bullish trend. So it's looking a bit more, it's still very choppy markets if we look on this kind of wider scale. Still kind of sideways here and there's still the potential for this large decline that we saw in December to play out but we're still kind of in sideways mode and we could be looking at another run at the highs before this plays in again. For me 6, 7, 7, 5 is definitely going to be a big one. If we get through that it's going to imply a big shift in sentiment from what caused that to then pushing through that high again which we're already starting to see because that's a strong couple of reversals of this level. So you don't typically want to fight against kind of long wicks like that, two of them together. It implies that there's a lot of buyers coming in around this six or 300 to 400 type area and so 6, 7, 7, 5, 8 certainly looks like it could be challenged at this point but that to me will be certainly stiff resistance given that it caused that decline there. A lot of this price direction hinges on what the ECB do on Thursday. Obviously it does directly affect the UK but it certainly indirectly does. Other things affecting the UK 100 but also the British pound if we flip over to that chart will be average earnings from the UK. We saw last week inflation dipped down to the joint lowest on record at 0.5%. So very little incentive at this point for the Bank of England to hike rates. One reason they might is if we get a further erosion of this cost of living crisis where actually wages go up. So average earnings push up whereas inflation is dropping. So then actually people are earning a bit more. Obviously the unemployment rate's been gradually ticking down so people are in a better place than they were and there's just less need for the emergency measures associated with a really low interest rate that we have at the moment. So particularly with the pound we've also been absolutely collapsing since we reached 172 and we're pushing into this 148, 40 type low that we formed back in 2013. But we are stalling out around this 150 area. 150 is obviously a big round number. We've seen these two sort of long leg doggies for the last couple of weeks. So the unemployment report comes out at the same time as average earnings. If we saw a big tick higher in unemployment that would probably be pretty negative for the pound but if we'd see strong average earnings that to me could be a bullish catalyst off here because you can see this 151 we've not been able to get back through there since we made that push lower and we've seen some quite long wicks coming off that so definitely some buying interest there. So then if we can actually make it through that 152.70 which we can see a bit better on there. See this is basically the action on the four hour chart made that low. It came higher. Struggled to get through that 152.70 so far but again actually found some interest at these lows. So this is sort of interim resistance coinciding with this 55 period moving average. We've got through the 21 period. So above there could catalyse another test of 152.70 but really above there is what's needed. Kind of put in some sort of double bottom ish pattern and potentially to higher prices and to me the natural next area would be the sort of 155 essentially where these two lows were formed that we broke down heavily from at the start of January. Another one big one to note for the UK on Friday is that we've got retail sales. There was a US retail sales but pretty bad last week and that partly explains why US markets closed lower while European markets did well because the big hope from the drop in oil prices is that it translates to people spending a lot more. Let's have a look at the SBX500. We have a look on the weekly chart. See we've closed lower three weeks in a row now. Again some big kind of buying off the bottom as we saw in the UK 100. So definitely potential to push higher this week after three weeks of declines which you can see historically. One, two, three, one, two in an up and a down. We haven't had many three week in a row declines. Back in October 2012 we did. Maybe I'll go obviously here in September. Not many of them as you can see. Historically we've been buying opportunities when we've seen three plus weeks. Here it was four so obviously be wary. But edging towards buying opportunity when you see this many weeks declines. But yes US sales, retail sales were bad and so it would be interesting to see if that's kind of an international effect where these lower oil prices have really just not quite translated across into people going into the shops and actually spending that money. Something that's been driving markets today is we can have a look here. When it comes to China we don't trade a cash product but we trade the front month future. This is the China A50 index because this is today's move. I think that's over 10%. As we price it for the day. It's from above 11,000 down to 10,000 round mark. So this is a big psychological level that's offered support a couple of times. Well once and then another one so far. That's what we're reacting off. But they've changed the margin requirements or they've sort of the regulators are starting to clamp down a bit on margin trading in China. And that's what's based alongside a bit of extra regulation on their sort of shadow banking sector is taking a bit of fears that this massive run up that we've seen in Chinese equities which you can't see on this chart because it's just this front month future. But China shares over about a 50% appreciation in 2014. And without many pullbacks that was since they introduced an interest rate cut spurring speculation that there's going to be a new monetary easing cycle and new liquidity flowing in Chinese markets so they've been ramping up on the expectation of that. It's not really fully happened yet and these latest regulations may be the trigger for especially if we can break below this 10,000 and the China A50 could be the spur for a larger correction until we actually see some bigger move from Chinese authorities. But that certainly affects other markets. I think part of the reason we're down in Europe today and why US futures are down even though US markets are not open because of Martin Luther King is this slow down in global growth particularly emanating out of China which has driven oil prices and then recently copper prices which are getting hammered again today that's ahead of the Chinese GDP report that's coming out later tonight or in the early hours tomorrow and the people's back of China and the Communist Party they had a growth target of 7.5%. It looks like China may well be missing that growth target for 2014 and for the fourth quarter at least it's expected to come in at around 7.2%. So they're still much higher growth than in the developed world obviously but still much slower than they had been doing double digit growth only a few years ago. So a big slow down taking place in China and that slow down demand is half of what's explaining the drop off in commodities and if we have a look at this copper chart I should do another here. This is a longer term picture in copper it's a weekly chart. I did note before the end of last week that if we got a close back above this 61.8% level that could be a good thing because you see we bounced off this high from back in June 2009 that works pretty well as support and we did close above that 61.8 level so maybe that's as much of a correction as we're going to get for now and that could be the trigger for some higher prices now that the copper prices have sort of got in the press and things you can see that maybe we're a bit over done and it has perfectly coincided with this sort of 19 level in the RSI so if we get a higher, if we can return higher this week that would be extra confirmation and if we could actually push past this June 2010 low at the 270 mark that would be big and then that could be at least a push back to the 300 level. Whether we can get through there possibly not. That may be another area for selling to come in but this is the first sign this kind of long wick that we saw last week we pulled back over half the losses of the week we're down a bit again today so that doesn't really bode well but if we can hold above the 61.8% level again even get a higher close this week that would imply that possibly it could be getting up to 300 again and obviously just use the shorter term charts for any kind of candle or indicator triggers but I think as far as my analysis it really comes from this longer term chart when it comes to copper while we're talking about that kind of general demand slowdown story let's have a look at crude prices we actually got a higher close last week for WTI and I think Brent as well so that's the first time that's happened in a few weeks so now there are calls for the bottom to have taken place in 44 WTI and it wasn't far off and Brent was about 45 as well if we look at that Brent chart the low was 45-20ish and Brent that spread between the two really closed up so it's like pullback you can see the same thing going on in the Brent chart here we can connect these recent lows just about forming a rising trend line so I think the way to look at this here is a break below this trend line opens up a retest of the low potentially new lows and a breakthrough this level the 49-54ish we had a spike through there failed and that's kind of a bearish sign but then the fact that we pulled up again to the highs improves the likelihood of doing well we've broken above these short term MAs we're still being capped on the daily chart by the 21 so that will probably be the big one first through this little line of support here then a close above that daily 21 period moving average will be something a lot of people are paying attention to that hasn't happened since September obviously it didn't work then so it's not the beild and end all but we're obviously significantly lower than we were then and that was the trigger to break through that longer term rising trend line so bearish pressure was fully on there and that was going into the OPEC meeting up there obviously that's all pretty much priced in at this point and we are starting to see some evidence that the number of rigs all rigs in the US is declining as it just doesn't make business sense anymore to be extracting a certain value per having costs which need a certain value in crude per barrel which are higher than the current levels and that's part of why we got this move higher in all last week was the International Energy Agency report which suggested that supply from non OPEC members like the US could start to decline in 2015-2016 so certainly technically an interesting setup here in crude haven't got too in-depth into the currencies we've looked at the pound, we've looked at the euro yen is certainly an interesting one we're close to a double top here the break of this rising trend line I mean this is one of those tricky ones where there's two technical things going on here one is this break of this rising trend line which I tend to favour because we have broken through this 55-day MA and we did form a lower high there but we do have a bullish engulfing candlestick for Friday and this is what you would call a positive reversal for the RSI, a positive RSI reversal where basically RSI is made a new low and low but the price is made a higher low so basically price is held strong in the face of bearish momentum sort of shows strength in the market so it's really are we looking at this price trend line break to trigger lower prices or are we looking at this strong price in the face of lower momentum to push up the higher prices we're basically in a range right now with this sort of 115-116 as the base so if you're assuming even though we're below the MA's that will obviously happen in a range at some point you'll be above them some point you'll be below them but it's not as technically significant when it's a sideways market the MA's just hover in the middle so probably we're going to push up to the top of the range again and then if this broken RSI line has any merit then we're going to roll over again before we get up to 120 but we'll have to see we'll need some shorter term confirmation from the likes of the 4-hour chart to trigger our trades and if you're looking at a bigger move up into the range or down below the range then you might have a few false starts before you get there that's the nature of the beast not had any Q&A so I'm assuming oh okay, there we go so I'm just getting a question here on cable do you think it's going to want to do a retest of support around 150.75 going higher 150.75 I see what you're talking about yeah just these lows basically well I suppose looking at the 4-hour chart there's kind of little bullish and golfing pushing through the EMA would say otherwise I mean I guess as I see it this was kind of the level that I kind of deemed to be important here this green level we sort of pushed through there, retested then we just pushed below it basically ran a bunch of stops below it that became the new kind of support but it's still kind of a spike bottom so this vicinity of 150.75 to 150.90 is the sort of needed and I think we sort of maybe tried to get down there again and managed to pull higher without having to so we saw two tests at the top two tests here so I suppose the answer is probably no we don't necessarily need that but keep in mind it's a range and that's the support so it's not a trend that's the previous low you expect to rebound where we're getting higher highs and higher lows where this is the low and this is the next high it is a range so it can pretty much chop around anyway in between this and still hold on to its technical pattern so I guess my I would say we don't need a retest to that 150.75 but we certainly could and that would mean stops probably need to be below it somewhere below it obviously it's never great to be directly below it and so the higher you're buying into this range the less the trade makes sense so in a way sort of you know trading perspective you always want the best risk reward so it's maybe one of these where it's basically in the middle of the range at this point so that's the worst trade you can make in a trading range where buying or selling right in the middle you want to be buying at the bottom or selling at the top so if it does come down for another retest then all the better in terms of trading opportunity and risk to reward ratio may break through obviously but if you're only taking a small risk it could obviously then be that third test that's needed to get to the top so it's a trading style thing have an order down here and the off chance it does go for another retest for a better risk reward or if you think it's done you know buy more aggressively into the top of the range but you know realistically to be absolutely well to be the safest you can in terms of this range trade you need to stop below there but that's obviously a bit high so then you'd have your choice of having another stop behind these recent lows but it certainly could chop down through there and then run higher again so it's one of those situations where obviously with the benefit hindsight just that buying right there before you know as this move happened was the best trade that's already taken place but it may happen again so you could have another one I know that's a bit of a caveated response I hope that was useful though so that's about the end of the webinar at this point we'll run a little bit over but I hope it was useful definitely big with the VCB you know really in terms of European trading building up to all week is that ECB announcement on Thursday and you're going to see a lot to speculation probably the old ECB rumor mill will you know tell us a few little gems beforehand indicating what kind of thing it's going to be introduced often time there are leaks from sources open quote close quote that will give us a good idea of what they're planning I'm assuming a program that kind of kicks off QE in a small degree and sort of hints that it's going to be expanded should it need to be something that hopefully won't upset the Germans too much but will satisfy markets that some sort of asset buying is taking place which I think will probably be quite well received but you know should nothing be announced I think it will take a lot of you know a lot of talking from Mario Draghi to satisfy markets should absolutely no program be introduced so that could be the catalyst for low prices and retest of those levels we were chatting about in the Gemini 30 alright thanks all Jasper Lula signing off