 Good morning everyone or good afternoon as it were my name is Nate Wilson and I'm the Libya country manager for the US Institute of Peace Thank you everyone for attending the drug trafficking and use in Libya, North Africa online event We at USIP are proud to partner with the global initiative against transnational and organized crime in this event USIP is a national non-partisan independent institute founded by the US Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical and essential for US and global security In conflict zones abroad the institute works with local partners to prevent, mitigate and resolve violent conflict to reduce future crises and the need for costly interventions USIP works with governments and civil society to build local capacities to manage conflict peacefully The institute pursues its mission by linking research, policy, training, analysis and direct action to support those who are working to build a more peaceful and inclusive world Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Geneva the global initiative comprises a network of over 500 independent global and regional experts working on human rights, democracy, governance and development issues where organized crime has become increasingly pertinent The global initiative provides a platform to promote greater debate and innovative approaches as building blocks to a more inclusive global strategy against organized crime It commissions and shares research globally It curates a robust resource library of 2,000 reports and tools specific to organized crime and uses its tremendous convening power to unite both the private and public sectors against organized crime And the reason that they are collaborating with us today is this fantastic report called a rising tide trends in production, trafficking and consumption of drugs in North Africa The research that USIP undertook in Libya which resulted in the report elicit drug trafficking and use in Libya highs and lows was done in partnership with and funding from the US Department of State's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs USIP has a long-standing relationship with INL colleagues and we have worked together in Libya since 2012 to strengthen rule of law The research capacity building and on-the-ground initiatives We're very pleased to have with us Kristen Bergen-Yone Team lead for North Africa and the Sahel and INL's Africa and Middle East office Kristen, please The floor is yours Hi everyone. Good morning. Happy Friday. As Nate mentioned, my name is Kristen And I work for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs We are very happy and proud to have partnered with USIP on this project Um, I've had the honor and privilege honestly to work closely with USIP throughout my entire career at the State Department Everyone knows I'm a huge fan I always say INL and USIP are a very good match for each other because we sign up to work in some very complex And often inaccessible areas We know this we know it well and still we bring it every day And so whether it's been working with the Fulani and Burkina, the Rohingya and Bangladesh We've worked together in Colombian peace processes, Kashmir together I feel like we've experienced unparalleled creativity, enthusiasm and unbelievable resilience So with that here's something else that I think is also very cool about us We are very much in this for the long game So simply put we are committed to sustainable institutional reform And together we seek solutions to problems that represent the needs of the people and ideally are by the people We do everything we can to highlight what's working and we try to fix or improve what's not And then we work with those awesome Fearless impactful people we've gotten to know on the ground to showcase those successes at the highest levels We'll deal with the overall goal of instituting change from the top Okay, so so Libya Yikes, where to start right? This is certainly very complex inaccessible to say the least Obviously too as the USG engagement has been super tricky and somewhat of a minefield Naturally, we want to support a democratic transition in Libya and an inclusive political process But for us right now this group here we are focused on bringing the capacity Of the Libyan community up Particularly its criminal justice sector actors to address drivers of conflict and instability Not easy. So when I first read this report Done very very very well months ago. I remember saying to my team like everyone Please take a look at this because this is no longer just a bilateral issue if it ever really was It's regional. It's transnational and we need to appreciate its impact and its potential impact And this report was and continues to be a reference guide for usg leadership and other stakeholders Of the dynamics at play here and it's really increasing the visibility of this again super complex and inaccessible area Even since its release the situation has grown more in size and scope as predicted in the report We're dealing with proxy wars the need to offset increasing malign influence and of course a worsening migration and trafficking situation Now, um, we are set to partner again with usip on a new project a mapping exercise of the security sector of the Fizan region understanding the importance of engaging in this area and Honestly, what's at stake if we don't? For the security of the Maghreb in the Sahel, but importantly the future of the Libyan people And in this vein, I want to thank usip honestly for keeping us grounded and staying focused The combination of these efforts will inform policy and programming And allow us to develop and implement initiatives with the greatest likelihood of success Thank you again, Nate and usip for having me today and I look forward to our discussion back to you guys Thanks so much christen. Thank you very much christen. Um, We appreciate the partnership with I know very much as well The research that we at usip undertook represented a confluence of interests So as it was clear that there were drug related factors contributing to instability in Libya But it was unclear how to what extent and what perhaps a change given the conflict context Libya of course has seen several waves of conflicts since 2011 and We can look at issues related to illegal drugs not just from the perspective of organized smuggling and crime But also how different drugs are being used to deal with the conflict either by those directly engaged in combat Those supporting fighters or the vast majority of regular citizens who are nonetheless affected by conflict There is or will be a generation of Libyans who will have had to deal with the traumatic effects of conflict Overlay that with social norms that stigmatize mental illness Which are definitely not unique to the Libyan context As well as broken public health systems and we already see people turning to drugs to cope As we will see however, Libya is but one part of the international Web of interests related to drug production trafficking and use as our global initiative colleagues Bring out in their excellent report for those who are interested in positive outcomes for the region It's crucial to understand how the complex ecosystem works as it encompasses countries borders communities individuals and governments We'll now hear from our panelists and then we'll have a question to answer with your questions So please enter them in the chat box on the event page and please feel free to tweet with the hashtag North Africa drug trends So first Fiona Mengen worked at USIP for almost five years From 2012 to 2016 and she has continued to be a frequent Consultant to the Institute in the years since She is currently research director at justice plus security In transitions and she will discuss illicit drug trafficking and use in Libya Then we'll hear from Matt Herbert who is the research manager for the North Africa and Sahel Observatory at the global global initiative He will zoom out and explore regional government responses and policy takeaways Last but not least we'll hear from max galleon. He's a research fellow at the institute of development studies As well as a fellow at the global global initiative Max will discuss broader patterns of production trafficking and consumption in the region So it's my pleasure to introduce Fiona Mengen first Over to you Thank you to USIP and to the global initiative for putting this together And to begin and to frame how this conversation I suppose has evolved over time I wanted to cast back to 2012 When myself and dr. Mark Shaw the director of a small little place now called the global initiative against International organized crime and I carried out some research And when we started this conversation about how we wanted to analyze organized crime and smuggling in the transition We were met with some resistance and in fact some confusion And a number of people brought up. Yes organized crime It's an issue in Libya smuggling shore drug use Small these were all small issues and certainly not issues front and center in the middle of the transition Urgent these were issues to get to later down the line when the basics of state building have been put in place when the basics of state security sector reform had begun Fast forward six months later as we were performing the research and already the dynamics had shifted and there was a lot more awareness These issues were immediate And in the intervening period of course Smuggling and illicit trafficking has mushroomed in the intervening years The state has essentially become defined by contradictory tensions On the one hand illicit trafficking and smuggling undercut the ability of the state to rebuild on the other hand Sometimes they feel like the only things that are still knitting the country back together as a whole And illicit drug flows are the key thread in all of this um a key part of this tangle of commodities Which form the illicit economy in Libya And stretching back historically the country has served as a transit zone and a small market for drugs This is not something new most prominently cannabis from its regional neighbor, morocco flowing through Um and a pre revolution other drugs were used including heroin and cocaine, but these were small niche markets and mostly Focused on the coastal cities and relatively small flows post 2011 we have experienced a significant shift in both the scale of drug flows and the nature of the market Nonetheless when we engage with Libyan authorities, they tend to still speak about drugs Almost as a monolith With little breakdown of the issues little breakdown of the markets and little ability to really analyze the issues and so I would refer you to the report that we produced which has is online on the usip website and has a series of very detailed maps and sections setting out the peculiarities of each of these different Markets each of these different flows as they course through the country So we have separated them into cocaine And our cannabis the biggest cocaine heroin ecstasy and amphetamines and a booming and relatively new market and transit hub for illicit prescription medication drug trafficking also a key piece in understanding is that drug trafficking spans the middle of a hierarchy of commodities smuggled in Libya and the different types of drugs that I've mentioned have different values And they have different levels of protection and they travel in different in different modes But they often overlap and interlace with other flows Which is why it's so important to understand their place within the broader illicit economy for example Migrants are very frequently found carrying small amounts of low-grade cocaine in order to pay their way along the journey boxes of pharmaceutical drugs can often be found on the back of trucks loaded With migrants, maybe also with other consumer goods subsidized goods the list goes on whereas High-value consignments of things like cocaine tend to travel almost entirely separately insulated from other flows in highly protected convoys through the desert or using maritime routes Understanding these particularities are really important in any attempt to begin to even think about crafting a response Getting an accurate picture of drug use addiction and treatment is also important to this Pre and post-revolution that's a bit tricky not impossible And little government attention was paid to monitoring treating or combating drug addiction under Gaddafi and Libya's relatively conservative society has also meant that addiction was generally dealt with behind closed doors And even when we talk to some of the addiction specialists about it They noted that you know hospitals and clinics would often go to great lengths to avoid the stigma of recording proper medical data around addiction So someone might be admitted for kidney failure But the the cause was never noted In the 90s there was a serious but contained heroin epidemic in in in uh in Libya And that was a merge emerged and documented because a number of clinics began to open around that period And some converse some small conversation around the idea of drug treatment and drug use started to emerge there was clinic at the psychiatric hospital in Tripoli one in Benghazi and another one that had a law enforcement component to it as well more broadly Drug use was not uncommon particularly hashish I was looking at hashish, but it remained relatively hidden Generally in the coastal cities mostly and engaged in by majority young men Non-medical prescription drug use was present, but was much smaller than it is now Drug use patterns have shifted obviously significantly And while the market remains booming and have Has grown exponentially in the coastal cities in the larger populated areas What's interesting is that there are now markets for drug sale And consumption issues across Libya in smaller communities and particularly a huge growth in the south a major market for drugs Which has grown around transit hubs and storage hubs in in sub and other southern cities And when we interviewed Libyan youth about their Drugs they spoke about an ease of being able to acquire drugs How commonplace it was The types of drugs Relative with relative comfort that this was very common amongst their friends both male and female But addiction specialists when we kind of dug into More serious issues around dependence and addiction Noted some important shifting dynamics around patient profiles Well, the dominant category of addicts remains young men between the ages of 18 and 40 There's been a significant increase in the number of female patients and much younger patients Notably children of middle school and high school age But also extending right down to sort of nine 10 11 year olds Accessing tramadol on a regular basis easily purchased alongside their sweets and cell phone credits at small shops in in Libya I'm costing just a dollar maybe two dollars for a strip And for women addiction tends to begin with self medication Anti-anxiety medication sleeping pills pain killers are pervasive amongst female addicts and users I'm generally acquired under the table for pharmacies or quietly shared amongst friends and groups militia groups and conflict actors Obviously represent another significant strain of habitual users and the prescription pain killer tramadol has been a predict Has gained particular significance In in in Libya in this regard, but also a series of other pharmaceutical and illicit drugs Cheap easily attainable tramadol eases pain accesses stimulant and enlarged doses allows a euphoric effect that has become famous in terms of use during combat Running through these different strands of the dynamics of drug use in Libya and I there are clear markers of trauma Children raising in conflict women suffering from anxiety and depression youth self-medicated to cope with pain to feel brave to relax to sleep to escape um The conflict dynamics have marked the country since the revolution and they've reshaped the way the drug consumption occurs Finally just a couple of quick words about treatment The three primary state clinics that I mentioned have essentially collapsed in terms of their function And in response a number of private clinics have sprung up mostly in the coastal cities But they're they're significant in number, but that's still mostly the preserve of the wealthy And in the absence of a coherent government response to growing rates of drug use and addiction militia groups have interestingly asserted a role Both in drug policing and also in drug treatment and a number of Ministry of Interior, but also just as associated groups And have been observed and and we conducted significant interviews into their their work in this area So the special deterrence force or rada Runs a correctional center alongside its detention facility in Tripoli a patiga air base Staff member we interviewed there reported that You know you had different punishments that were decided on by the facility. Maybe six months for drug use More if you were dealing And he contended that this these were you know good faith efforts to deal with a societal problem And seemed certainly very genuine in that however when we interviewed Ex-mitiga detainees at these facilities They and their friends and family they've reported a different story Significant fear intimidation use of physical violence And others noted that the period of periods of detention that they had mentioned was really Often more determined by your connections your level of wealth your ability to pay your way out In miss rata a similar clinic is operated by the anti crime unit and another clinic at the al-huda prison in in miss rata um While again many of these individuals spoke at length about the work that they put into this and and seem to certainly have Good faith motivations It's important to note that these facilities are run with the involvement of security actors and a limited number of medical doctors Addiction specialists or psychologists involved and that none of these facilities have been certified by the ministry of health Or any appropriate government agency Just to conclude um To note that the role of organized crime in conflict and post-conflict settings has increasingly been acknowledged As central in post-conflict peace building and state building It's important to note that the scale and profits generated from drug trafficking render a particularly insidious In corrupting local and national level politics and security institutions And as these networks are allowed to over time Fed down as these local markets for consumption grow So too do the long-term challenges of restoring political processes and a functioning justice and security sector Thank you. I'll pass on to matt I will uh defer now actually to max galya and uh come in uh at the end um Okay, uh, thanks, uh matt. Thanks mate. Thanks to the global initiative and usip for having me um After Fiona's focus on on libya I'll try to take the next 10 minutes or so and try to widen the lens a little bit and aim to situate the libyan case That we just heard about in a in a broader regional picture of of shifting patterns of drug drug production trafficking and and consumption In doing this i'm drawing on the global initiative report arising tight that i wrote with matt and that is available on the on the gi talk website We started writing the report with the goal of putting together eight pages or so on recent developments Around drugs in the region their effects on politics And in the end we wrote something which i think now resembles a short book we think over over to unit 60 Footnotes so in all of our interests i will not summarize the report here, but instead focus on a few key observations and dynamics In particular, i'll try to focus on what is new and what has changed in recent years and what may What changes may still be to come And as we do in the report i start by looking at drug production move on to trafficking and finally consumption And then matt will will take over and draw out a little bit what these changes mean for for states in the region Before we get to the interesting stuff I think a caveat is in order, which is that naturally with issues such as this data availability is is always the challenge We've drawn on a range of different data sources to triangulate some of the dynamics that we're pointing to And we're drawing on years of experience of working on illicit economies in the region And i think we've been cautious and conservative in our approach, but challenges do remain and without Wanting to start the policy discussion early I think there's a dire need for new partnerships to generate and share better data on drug production on traffic and especially on consumption in the region Um, but that being said, let me focus on production first So traditionally talking about drug production the maghreb has meant talking about cannabis production, especially morocco And this remains true with production centered around the reef mountains Morocco remains a central supplier of cannabis to europe and one of the largest and likely the largest exporter globally production is geographically Constrained both historically and politically So although there's been some eradication replacement efforts. It has remained Constrained geographically, but due to changes in production intensity. This is not necessarily decreased output Essential factor here have been new plant varieties that carry a higher yield Um, although they also carry the risk of interacting differently with the local soil and water supply If we focus on changes direct production in the region of hiberly Um, there are three points that are really worth noting First, um, the global market for cannabis production is changing The expansion of legal production, especially in north america means that moroccan producers are increasingly competing with producers That can operate fully legally and that are much more heavily capitalized and hence are able to produce novel and stronger products There's little doubt that these producers will increasingly affect the european market And discussions about legalizing cannabis production morocco while they have existed on a low level for years may gain new arguments through a new global context Second it's worth noting that cannabis in the market has not only grown in the reef mountains While seizures in algeria have remained relatively low They have existed and they've included large plantations which suggests serious commercial strategies Crucially, however, they're also a reminder that the current focus of cannabis production in the maghreb on the reef mountains Is due to political choice not agricultural constraints If political preferences change either towards legalization or towards a larger toleration of production Especially in order to provide livelihoods for poor communities Production can expand substantially And third cannabis is not the only drug produced in the maghreb We've seen some signs of poppy cultivation for opium production as well Well, these have been relatively small scale and ad hoc 2007 2008 have seen large seizures of larger fields in algeria Again, here the main point is that the climatic and agricultural context and the know-how for larger production is theoretically available And especially in the context of changing consumption patterns in the region there seem to be a likelihood that domestic Demand may increase In order to talk about trafficking, I'd like to share a map that we have in the report if the Friendly elves at AT could share that can anyone see that? Okay, so I know that map has quite a lot going on We have detailed maps for individual goods in the report But I do think it's worth sharing this one because it illustrates two key points about drug trafficking in the region First there's a lot of it. The region contains transport corridors not just for cannabis But also for cocaine and prescription medication and synthetic drugs And second and I think this is the key point That these routes and corridors are not the same that they follow different global patterns and different dynamics and that these dynamics are changing So if we look at cannabis, which is still the most traffic drug in the region We're seeing a wide range of routes that primarily connect the region's production center to consumption markets Which is primarily europe and to a lesser degree the middle east and the rest of more africa I'm not going to go through all the dynamics here. We have a lot more detail in the report But some trends and changes I think are important to note While the route directly from northern morocco to spain is by far the oldest recent years have seen the numbers of routes used diversify substantially A route through the sahel began to assume prominence in the early 2000s While the military conflicts there have then driven some actors to look for new routes directly through the northern regret Following this and likely following increasing interdiction efforts within the region The last few years have seen maritime routes become increasingly important as as Fiona also highlighted earlier And finally libya has emerged as a central entrepo and recent years from which on cannabis is moved both to europe and consumption markets in the east In the early 2000s Cocaine trafficking wasn't a large issue in north africa But this has also changed substantially in recent years Once latin american producers of cocaine have established footholds in west africa The maghreb has increasingly come a trans a transit market for product from latin america heading for europe I know this isn't coming out in the map too. Well, but trust me Um, here morocco has seen the center of cooking Morocco has been the center of cocaine shipments through the maghreb We've seen large seizures of increasingly large quantities indicating a corridor that's both expanding in size and its professionalism In 2016 a conversion laboratory was raided in ujda in north morocco And they had peruvian chemists and about 250 kilogram of refined cocaine We've seen increasingly large seizures in recent years in algeria as well most famously in in 2018 in in oran This pattern of a of a South north corridor towards europe is remarkably different if you look at the market for prescription medication and synthetic drugs Um, this is of course the ujda diverse category including in subatex and tramadol. They has a brand viagra Which differ in their use and their price in the market But notably there's not the south north pattern here Here one set of routes is within the region resulting from diversions from legal distribution channels to typically pharmacies And the other set of route is made up of trafficking from production centers in europe towards consumption markets in the maghreb And this includes both small-scale trafficking and increasingly smuggling in bulk, especially involving libya and morocco All of these channels have one thing in common Which is that they've been increasing substantially in recent years And this connects to one of the main arguments we want to make here, which is around trends in consumption Uh, so the map becomes somewhat less important now so we can take it down um So one of the primary things we wanted to highlight when we wrote this report Is that while a lot of the attention on drugs in the maghreb has been on smuggling The region's become increasingly important consumption market in recent years There's not a single factor driving this. This involves pilaf from smuggling routes, demographics, war economies, social and economic frustrations, all are factors But the maghreb has become an increasingly important market It's it's always been small but relevant consumption market for cannabis with approximately about a million users Especially in morocco and especially for young men Um, there are indicators that this market is increasing And that is not only an urban phenomenon There's also a rather small market for cocaine, which appears to be increasing a little bit And potentially as a result of pilaf some cocaine smuggling and a small but growing heroin market, especially in morocco's coastal centers But I think the main story here the key trend on the consumption side, especially from a public health perspective Is exactly as Fiona highlighted the substantially expanding market for prescription medication synthetic drugs Um, the precise type of synthetic drugs consumed seems to vary dramatically with socioeconomic status With products like ecstasy, consent and wealthier segments of society And cheaper psychotropics by full poorer segments of the population such as ritrobill Which is recently uh, usually referred to as karakubi in morocco Lyric are it in Algeria and Tunisia. Supertex are highly addictive heroin substitutes, particularly widespread And it's interesting that until recently captegon and tramadol Which for which there are substantive markets in the rest of the Middle East and parts of the Sahel Have not become quite as prevalent in the maghreb yet. So that does seem to be changing, especially in Libya While there's a significant variety of these substances consumption of all of them seems to be expanding Between 2014 and 2019 the number of Algerians arrested for possession of such substances has quadrupled There's less data in morocco and Tunisia, but significant indications that consumption is also increasing Synerodynamics are very very clear in Libya And I think this expansion is particularly concerning and this makes a particularly important issue As the health effects of these substances are substantially different from those of cannabis Many of these are highly addictive and have substantive and immediate effects on consumer's health And they overlap with other dimensions of marginality in the region, especially on a social and social economic level Health groups and NGOs across the region not only beginning to report these effects But are highlighting the health infrastructure across the region. It's utterly unable to deal with these things But I think with that I'm getting into the Effects of these dynamics on the state for the region and I'll pass on to Matt to to further explain Thank you very much max. So my name is Matt Herbert. I'm the research manager for the North African Sahel Observatory at the Global Initiative and I'd just like to To echo on some points very briefly so we can We can move towards the question and answer phase That focus on the impact of all this I know that Fiona has begun to discuss the impacts of rising drug use within Libya, but we're seeing some Some concerning trends on the impact of rising production Rising trafficking and rising consumption across the region writ large and so I'll focus on each of those now On production as max pointed out in the past In morocco production of cannabis has had a net stabilizing effect in the reef but simply has provided jobs in an economically underserved area and has Perhaps dampened anger In specific zones about the lack of other economic development or job opportunities But what we've seen with the advent of new strains and these are especially developed out of Europe oftentimes they're funded by European investors And they require a very different political economy than the traditional strains Uh, what we've seen with those is actually the expansion in the size of large plantations and the expansion in the size of these capital intensive economies Which has had a dramatic impact on small scale farmers those that have repeatedly been the benefit of Production or benefited from production in the past As well we've seen an increase in environmental degradation a lot of these new strains of Cannabis that are being produced are particularly water intensive Which has impacted not simply the ability of smaller farmers for example to to get water for their crops But other agricultural producers in the region and so in looking at the rise of Changes in the the campus production market in northern Morocco I think one of the key concerns is that the stability that we've seen in the past might be shifting rather rapidly and concerningly Towards towards a situation in which those farmers that have been marginalized Are even more marginalized now with with these new strains than than ever before now When it comes to trafficking I think the the key point to point out is that in the past trafficking networks have not really previously posed a direct challenge To most states in north africa and this is primarily because they're a small number of groups that have active They're transacting and very or were transacting in very small volumes of cannabis And so they accrued very limited power as they moved across the region Now this has obviously started to change as max is highlighted one of the things that we've seen in particular is that The number of high value commodities flowing across the region has led to an increase in the power and economic capacity Of the trafficking groups in particular Now to a degree. This has actually been abetted by not just action by regional states but actually action by uh by the donor community and by that I focus really on the The increasing border security across the region in recent years the erection of walls the provision of more training the provision of radars and other Other systems to identify who crumbles across frontiers And this has had an impact on drug trafficking, but it's had an impact on the smallest players It's had an impact on those that had the least capacity to evade state forces And it's really started to shape the market into one where the trafficking ecosystem is defined by very large Very well capitalized organizations that are able to either get through because of sheer capacity Or able to utilize their financial largesse to to corrupt specific officials to get their product moving through the region To put it in basic terms, this has allowed strategic flexibility And I think that the strategic flexibility Is one of the reasons that we're going to continue to see the the trafficking networks target north africa to expand on the footprint that they already have Now I should point out that what we're seeing in north africa Especially around drug trafficking has not imparted the sort of high High impact violence that we've seen in latin america in mexico and the northern triangle and other areas You have seen some connections between trafficking groups And armed terrorist organizations such as along the tenetia algeria border You've also seen an increase in In bandits that have preyed on trafficking groups, especially in southern libya And finally, you've also seen a slight increase in the number of trafficking groups that are armed But to date the primary Method for getting through the region has focused on corruption. It hasn't focused on direct violence against state authorities As one analyst told us Here in in algeria, you know, it's it's best to to buy your way through rather than attempt to fight the state Now this obviously brings significant concerns The corruption of high-level state officials that we've seen Has you know gone increasingly up and up into the hierarchies of regional states And even setting aside libya where there are concerns about Just who is being paid within various armed groups by drug trafficking networks Even within fairly well-functioning states such as algeria and rocco You have incidents in which those that either are in positions of high state power Or those that are linked to them either family members or key assistants Have been implicated in in drug trafficking cases But I also want to flag that there's also an increasing concern around low level corruption and corruption specifically of security and defense force officials And this has always existed to some degree, but it's starting to percolate into places and institutions that traditionally have not been corrupt There's been a limited number of instances in tunisia, for example where military officials have been implicated in drug trafficking activities And this evolution while still extremely extremely limited Is of particular concern. I think for those within tunisia and within the international community looking to support tunisia Given the perceptions of capacity and non-compromisability of those institutions And finally, I think the the issue to flag with corruption is that it's increasingly a tool of inter-elite competition And so it's a cudgel that some groups wield against each other That can lead to destabilization within the political sphere that I think is is quite concerning Now very briefly. I'm just going to touch on the impact of rising consumption really in two areas The first of those is on public security and as max noted, we've seen a stark increase in arrests Especially in algeria, but also in places such as tunisia and morocco even in in libya In algeria, for example, we've gone from about 7 000 arrests for narcotics consumption back in 2011 To over 33 000 in 2018 and it's likely to be even higher this year Some 30 of the prison population in tunisia is incarcerated on drugs charges And these sort of arrest levels put tremendous strain on the criminal justice system But they also reverberate on Societies and they impact individuals lives I mean one of the things that we've heard about in particular is the rest of youth in tunisia on drug consumption charges lengthy pre-trial detention phases lengthy incarceration phases And this then even becomes a further bar towards finding a job when they get out And this then leaves those those youth with very few opportunities very few options Within the the legal and the formal economy now this then boomerangs back onto What then to do about consumption? And I think that the logical place to start is looking at it as a public health issue The problem here is that public health infrastructure to address Drugs to address issues of addiction is particularly weak all across north africa you know if you ever mentioned the provision of Anti-addiction centers by armed groups within libya and while that's an extreme case I think that it highlights the very real demand on the part of the population. It's not just in libya But in tunisia and algeria and morocco for public health infrastructure that can help them in addressing these very real real problems Now i'll end with a point that that max made which I think is also Very important as we consider consumption We tend to think of drug consumption as fundamentally an urban issue whether it be carcoby use in casablanca cocaine in the clubs of gamal in Tunis or the use of psychotropics within trible But that's no longer the case in north africa You do find a concentration of drug consumption in cities, but you also find a increasingly grave rule consumption problem be it in the rift mountains with heroin in places such as gaffes in tunisia with heroin Or in the deep south of tunisia with various psychotropic drugs And so we can no longer think about providing or focusing on public health interventions that are urban focused alone There needs to be a consideration of how best to serve rural populations as well Now there are a number of highly salient recommendations that max and I give in our report that fiona has provided in her report In the interest of time and questions. I will defer on those though and turn the floor back over to me. Thank you great Thank you matt and max and fiona before that really interesting presentations and I really encourage all the people watching to check out both reports the one by usip as well as the one with global initiative chock full of good information So i'm going to pick up on on matt's last point here and ask a somewhat provocative question There's evidence from more and more places that decriminalization or legalization of drugs Especially those that generally have less harmful effects can have positive outcomes These can include a greater uptake of people into treatment reducing incarceration as you mentioned Reducing criminal justice costs redirecting etc Of course, there are different experiences in different countries and it depends on the nature of the legal scheme For example setting the threshold limits between possession and trafficking Uh, and thus the penalties for these crimes The question is in thinking about how to reduce harm to individuals increase stability Take pressures off of governments that we know to have very limited resources is decriminalization or legalization worth considering in some if not all the Contacts in the magram matt i'll i'll let you go first just to pick up on your thread But i'd love to hear from the others others as well Uh, absolutely Nate and I would say that it absolutely is and you're already starting to see some movement in that direction especially in morocco Now cannabis is the the obvious easy case for this not simply because of the the more limited ramifications they can have on users, but also because of the the longer standing history of Cannabis use across north african. This isn't something that Starts in the 1960s. It's not something that starts in the 1860s. I mean, there are hundreds of years In which cannabis has been cultivated has been used across the magram now That being said, I don't expect that there will be necessarily an an easy movement towards Decriminalization in any area outside of morocco. I think it's still a tremendously contentious issue out there societally But what we are starting to see is as you know, uh, Nate a little bit of a rethinking of the criminal justice approaches I know that in tenesia the questions around various laws that have been very harsh on possession of cannabis have Have started to be rethought have started to be debated publicly a little bit more than in years past I think that there's a strong avenue for forward movement on that I'll turn it over to max for any other comments and fiona Um, thanks matt. I mean first of all just to echo what matt said. I do think that um Especially when looking at cannabis, this is a debate that is important to have and that and I think this is something We're learning globally It's going to be have to be a part of the toolkit of of how to engage with these issues Although I think in Both in the context north and north africa and more globally This discussion is currently limited to cannabis and probably For now, rightfully. So, um, I agree with matt said and I think especially the the effect on um, the The criminal justice system and the region is really really crucial and and some of the developments in tenesia have been quite positive I just add one other aspect which I think at least for morocco. This is also an industrial policy issue morocco is a large producer of cannabis morocco is a large exporter of cannabis And it is increasingly competing with other large exporters of cannabis globally and the one thing I add to that is that It's important to remember that the fact that cannabis is tolerated buddy legal in morocco Provides a certain regulatory environment It shifts the regulatory power of it towards the executive and towards the security services because at the end of the day law is not enforced against it um And the second you legalize something like that that shifts the regulatory structures that move some of the power that moves some of the institutions that control this And this tends to benefit some actors and harm others This isn't to say that that shouldn't be a conversation morocco should have but I think it's In order to have that conversation productively I think we need to think very careful about who's benefiting from the current system What role they were playing in use system? But also what social function the system is currently having like many illegal economies in the region It has an element that is very particularly geared towards supporting people that don't have anything else to support them And the second reef the reef is getting Competition within morocco from large formal legal enterprises that are potentially very well politically connected That will also see some very poor farmers losing out So I think looking at the broader view of how that illegal economy is regulated in morocco Is a really really key part of how we discuss legalization I'll turn to fiona. Thank you matt uh fiona Yeah, I mean just a very small addition on on on this with the frame of libya. I think unfortunately Decriminalization is likely unrealistic in the short term in libya in part because issues of law reform and and how dysfunctional government state and And the legislative is it would pose some serious challenges there but also for societal reasons and particularly given the significant new role of Salafist groups in in law enforcement. I think you'd find significant pushback there Um, but it you know, it's certainly a conversation that I think is is worth having with the inability I think to pursue The criminalization and law reform in the short term What I would say is that it is useful to continue to advance conversations with justice officials about prosecutorial discretion Um and prioritization by law enforcement agencies So particularly another area of work that Nate usip and I have done in libya is looking at the prisons and you know, when you have prisons that are Overflowing at 200 percent their capacity You know, are you going to prioritize? Incarcerating for a long period somebody for a very very small possession charged or indeed as we've seen in the past for You know being in possession of locally brewed alcohol and small relative small things just thinking about whether prosecutorial discretion, which is culturally not something that something that's a bit new within the Libyan criminal justice system and criminal justice thinking um Might be worth thinking about the other piece actually that I think in terms of regulation or in terms of um targeting could be also to look at Prescription drug regulation. I know in libya, but also all across the region Um, you know, it is very easy to buy prescription drugs On the black market, but also in pharmacies without a prescription. Um, and that's not unique to libya um, and Pharmacists have made significant amount of money from some of the research that we've done and through diversion of legally acquired stocks into the black market But again, if you are going to pursue that like max said, you also have to think about the repercussions of any action in that area Which is that some of the self medication that's happening at the moment is in response to a completely defunct Healthcare system. And so this is how people are accessing healthcare. This is how people are legitimately acquiring painkillers But potentially that legitimate initial acquisition is what tilts you towards, you know, trajectory towards Drug use and addiction and but also Significantly that and a large amount of the prescription drugs being accessed in libya are also psychiatric drugs anti-anxiety medication uh sleeping pills which again are indicators of trauma which people are are self-medicating for and if you're going to regulate that you need to properly provide A functioning system that provides those kind of supports for a population in need Yeah, very true max you wanted to make one other point Yeah, just to chime in with what fiona was saying. Um, I think the point she was making and that's really important Is to reflect on how much work In terms of approaching drugs towards the issue there towards in the region right now is being done by the prison system I mean one of the very very early conversations matt and I had about this topic was thinking about all the parallels between what we're seeing in North Africa right now and what we're basically seeing during the crack cocaine epidemic in um in north america and europe and a few decades ago and It's this combination of of a very securitized approach to some of these issues It's a combination through heavy work being done by the prison system um But also a moral panic around some of these issues and a moral panic around some of these issues and marginalized communities Especially socioeconomically marginalized communities. Um that that are consuming some of these drugs And I think it's it's a really really crucial agenda to move Some of these discussions out of the security angle not just by governments in the region But also by us as external actors engaging with us Do not just think about this as you know, how is it impacting the security of the reaching house and impacting porous borders but also really thinking of it as Public health crisis that shouldn't be treated only as a security crisis because that will make it into one Fair enough. Actually, I want to pick up on that really quickly because you one of the interesting recommendations in your report Was to donor nations to focus not only on problems of most concern to them But to engage in a dialogue with countries of the maverick Um, are you aware of any fora where these discussions are taking place that can be built off of? Uh, or is this a gap that's uh worth exploring further? Max you can go ahead or mac go ahead. Thank you so, uh, I think it's actually it's twofold it's not only the need for dialogue between uh donor nations and uh Their their counterparts in north africa also brought our understanding by donor nations of What's uh, what societal concerns are in north africa, but it's also a need for dialogue between north african states um There's a tremendous amount of accrued knowledge in north africa on handling various aspects of Of narcotics issues But it tends to be extremely siloed And so you don't necessarily in fact very rarely find Direct engagement either multilateral bilateral between some of the key states that that have a stake in this In terms of the fora that exists to to address it Between north african states it could actually be an interesting opportunity to to reinvigorate The arab migrat union um The of course one of the things that we didn't mention in this presentation, but we've Reflighted in the report is that The issue of trafficking in particular has led to uh diplomatic finger pointing by some north african states towards others And this is uh, this is a bureaucratic uh diplomatic weapon at times. And so there needs to be a movement past that But I think that there are various Uh various multilateral forums that are put together by By very by donor nations that encompass many of the nations in north africa as well as those in the Sahel that have a similar interest in this That could be perhaps better geared towards Towards discussions around this perhaps uh sideline conversations I mean whether it be the Some of the counterterrorism fora that have been developed for north african the sahel or Some of the other customs fora that are out there I think there is an opportunity but we have to think creatively Great. Thank you Max, did you want to add something? um Just to add a small point um in in agreement with what matt said, I think thinking creatively around this also means thinking about The role of countries outside of maghreb in this right? I mean if if we look at the maps we draw They always have arrows that go outside of the region. So I think to also think about um us as international partners engaging with the region that we are also um producers of some of these goods uh cannabis legally and a lot of prescription narcotics illegally and some of them legally um and that we're an enormous consumption market that is that is drawing a lot of this production as well and I think that um Acknowledging that in these conversations. I think it also makes for for an interesting starting point and and maybe uh A less one-sided discussion Great. Thank you max. Uh christin. You wanted to add something? I just wanted to mention that inl is actually supporting this network. It's called the spider network. It's uh, It's actually a french acronym. I'm not sure if you've all heard of it. It's focused primarily on the sahel and addressing transnational organized crime with the focus on counter narcotics and We've invited countries of north africa to participate over the course of the past few years This is facilitated and supported by i know, but it's actually run by the sahelian countries And so, you know, as you've all mentioned a few times before this is a very siloed Conversation and we've tried actually to be quite pointed in uh our requests for particular countries to participate and provide points and respond, but this might be also another way of trying to get involved Thank you christin. That's really uh, that's really helpful. Um one thing So moving on to a question from the audience and we only have a few minutes left. So this tells me that we have Other conversations that need to be had around this topic but could you Maybe if you want to you could start on this and then we move quickly to others but can you discuss any nexus between drug trafficking and Violent extremist groups such as isis looking to make a profit If there's a nexus at all and then that that also Doug fails with another question that came in about the nexus between drug smugglers and human traffickers and So specifically in the libya case obviously this is an issue and obviously anything that can you know move across Borders and through states illicitly You know, you wonder about who else can use those same pathways and and and exploit and obviously in the Syria context This has been an issue We have done You know research and looked into it in libya. We haven't seen any great significant evidence of Isis involvement in drug trafficking or in particular sectors of the illicit economy and in fact in talking to some of the Significant traffickers and and tribes involved in this activity in the south many of them in fact said They were very cautious to stay away from that because it would attract international attention and disrupt their business So they really feel very disincentivized to Make those links and they do see the presence of Some new actors particularly in areas of the south, but I receive no indication of intimate involvement in in in in that in in libya on the overlap with with Migrants muggling and human trafficking. I think this is another area to go back actually to the previous point, which is that In order because of the overlapping and interlaced nature of the criminal economy and the illicit economy These things are all Have have have networked and um and crossover and so for example when we saw huge emphasis placed on tackling particular Migrant trafficking routes in libya. We actually saw some of the same actors squash one activity and transfer into more substantially into drug trafficking And this is why I think actually comprehensively understanding The illicit economy in each country in in different regions and how they overlap and interlace is really important but that will so I think can be a factor in the receptivity of National actors to assistance. So for example, some of the conversations that I had in libya indicated that people are that are sick of International actors coming to them only wanting to talk about the migrant crisis because they see that as just something that's affecting europe Whereas we have this, you know other Aspects of it including drug trafficking and use that are are really important to us. So, um, yeah, I'll hand over to the others there Great matt Just uh Just three points to to make very quickly point number one in terms of the direct connection to to violent extremist organizations You don't necessarily see the crossover that you see in the side hill there are some uh Some small bits of evidence about connections between Extremist groups on the tinesia libya border and drug trafficking, but it's it's very limited My main worry honestly isn't isis or is an al-qaeda affiliates intersecting with drug trafficking in north africa rather It's for example the return of mercenaries from the front lines of the libyan civil war Um drug smugglers and human smugglers Point the second point is that first it's a question of scale Yes, human smugglers are involved to a degree in some drug trafficking activity, but oftentimes they're relatively small players Number two is that actually the increasing border security and border security activities We're even starting to see by non-state actors in southern libya Are pushing human smugglers and migrants into routes and into areas that are traditionally used by drug traffickers And that actually hasn't had much impact on drug trafficking But it places a tremendous risk on the migrants on the human smugglers that are going through those areas And so there there are complicated connections here Yeah, and that comes out well in your report And uh, I can say that that's something that we're keeping our eye closely on Uh through our programming in libya and usip Um, so unfortunately, we are out of time Uh, I'd like to thank the global initiative Uh very much for partnering on this Max, Matt, Fiona, and of course Kristen and inl colleagues are always Crucial to the work that we do at usip And thank you everybody who participated. I'm sorry that I didn't get to everybody's questions But it's good that that we had such engagement And uh, thank you from uh from the u.s. Institute of peace. See you next time