 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a fun match up between Texas and Alabama coming up this week across called football We're gonna break down not only that game But also other big games across week two and the favorite bets from Dr. Ed fang over at Fandall Sportsbook for this week It says covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Dr Ed fang you can find his work over at the power ranked calm check him out on Twitter at the power rank as well Ed It is week two in college football and week one in the NFL. So how you doing today? I'm doing great trying to Get everything settled with both college football in the NFL. It's been a busy week But it's really nice to have college football and then obviously pretty big game tomorrow night as well Yeah, and I've been spending the entire week getting my spreadsheets ready for the NFL trying to get that done. Honestly, it's kind of like a First day of school when you're like organizing your highlighters I'm not sure if you ever did this but like organizing your highlighters. They're arranged in like color order and stuff like that That's what it's like for me getting my spreadsheets ready is like organizing everything You might kind of get that like extra little bolt of juice when you do that So like I've honestly even though it's like a tiring week and a kind of a stressful week It's still really fun at the same time Yeah, it is really fun. Are you you have your spreadsheets ready for DFS or what would specifically betting DFS I have got my totals model ready to cook in putting wind speeds and stuff like that. That's done That's ready to go. Obviously the betting model which had for a couple years I have like an upside model for DFS I'm tinkering with try to identify like best game environments and stuff like that So we're gonna a lot of stuff Will it be good who can say I won't know until Week 18, but like I think it's I think we're on the right path here So I feel I feel like more prepared than I have in years past That's good. Yeah, so we'll see how it goes today We're gonna talk about college football week number two talking about the week's biggest games breaking down What Ed's thoughts are on those games and much more But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Special little tree coming up here on the podcast feed today, but also every every week on Wednesday or Thursday morning We're gonna Tom Vecchio. 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We'll begin to some of the big games across week number two here in just one second head But first one talk to you about your model because you mentioned entering week zero that there will be Situations where your model moves dramatically with new data and we did see some teams that outperform the market in a big way And we won like Colorado obviously, but also Texas state. So Well, how much are you are you able to adjust much as a model adjust when teams like that outperform expectations? So dramatically in the opening game of the year It adjusts a lot Colorado got moved up three or more points I think that is probably accurate. Although we'll talk about that a little bit more later It was even a little bit more with Texas state. The model is aggressive I think you need to figure out when that aggression is warranted and then maybe when it's not I was kind of off when You know moving on Hawaii and having Stanford, you know taking them what plus three and a half against Stanford that didn't That didn't really work out So the model is going to be aggressive whether you choose to follow that or not is is kind of the handicapping process We'll talk about a couple of you know what the model says in a couple games compared to the preseason Expectations there, you know, there's clearly cases in which the market's been like, all right We're not gonna we're not gonna put too much stock in that first game We're just gonna pretty much go with what the preseason prior was no matter what we saw in that game and We'll go from there. So if you see something different if you see something that really kind of stands out to you then Then I would go with the aggression, but it's really like it's really, you know I mean, that's kind of the art of handicapping right the model says it's gonna be aggressive and it's gonna move and It's my job to figure out when that's appropriate when it's not now with those two teams specifically there was Unlike unmeasurable amounts of turnover from year to year So they entered the year is kind of being like the most volatile of teams as a result of that So does that make you put more stock in your model the aggressive model knowing that it's going to react quickly to those things or Does it make you a bit more skeptical of the model because There's such edge cases that maybe that it's not going to be aggressive enough with with teams as dramatic as those two I Mean it's hard to say it's it's a kind of a case-by-case basis, right? Like Colorado's offense was awesome. Their defense honestly not so much, right? So, you know, you got to kind of parse that out You have to put in the context that I kind of thought TCU was overrated coming into the season Something I wrote about in my newsletter. So that kind of plays a factor in there and then You know, I mean we'll get back to Colorado Nebraska later But I mean essentially the the markets moved Like 10 points on that game. Yeah, that's a lot the market has moved essentially zero points and a couple of these other games that we're gonna talk about so I Understand kind of what they're saying with with with Colorado, but you know, I mean I Definitely believe in what Dion's doing and I'm really happy for them and I was certain the cheering for them Saturday Yeah, that was that was a lot of fun But and and I can see the reason why you would make such a drastic shift But I'm not sure that that much is warranted. We'll talk about that game later on as you tease Let's start things off here by talking about Notre Dame at NC State We're right now Notre Dame is a seven-point favorite total in this game is 50 and a half And obviously you talked about Notre Dame against Navy and in that game They lived up to an exceeded expectations you had high expectations than to begin with and then they exceeded that so What kind of a ceiling does Notre Dame have if they can keep the offense clicking the way it was against that Navy team? I Mean certainly pretty pretty high ceiling, you know, my model has this at Notre Dame about seven and a half points and Look Notre Dame has been what we thought they could be bringing in a really high profile quarterback transfer in Sam Hartman They have exceeded 10 yards past kept in both their games look not exactly the most difficult competition in the world But 60% passing success rate in both games also pretty good Obviously gonna get a bit more of a test here with the is this officially considered a conference game I don't even know they're playing in ACC opponent And we're gonna we're gonna learn a little bit more, right? You know the North Notre Dame defense really hasn't been challenged That should probably change a little bit against North Carolina State and Brendan Armstrong It should be more of a test my model doesn't really have much of an edge here I would certainly lean towards Notre Dame because I do feel like there is upside with Sam Hartman with a Marcus Freeman team The defense should be good and probably better than it was in his first year last year So I would definitely lean that way but But the model doesn't really have not showing too much of an edge Especially because you've got a seven and a half the minus seven at St. Fandall sports, but at least is minus 118 So that's kind of pretty much in line with what your numbers have it sounds like it's a very efficient market there So I think that even further increases the incentive you this one is being a stay away Notre Dame at NC State despite the fact we think that this offense could have upside makes sense to Respect the fact that the market also agrees with that assessment. Let's talk now about Texas A&M and taking on my amy Also a Saturday game where right now Texas A&M four and a half point favorite on the road taking on Miami total for this game Is 51 and a half and look at this game Ed both these teams cruise to victory in week one So can Miami keep this one closed potentially cover here? What's your thoughts in this game? Right. I mean, I think those victories in week one were very different. The Texas A&M one was probably a little bit misleading I think they did cover this while they were favored by 38 But when you look at the underlying metrics that didn't really justify Being a 38 point favorite. So for example, they had about 42.9 percent success rate Texas A&M Versus 36.7 for me Mexico. So they were the better team, but probably not 38 point that 38 points better My model certainly adjusted for that it was different for Miami of Florida they were 16 and a half point favorite and They almost doubled up in success rate over Miami of Ohio Miami of Florida had 51.6 percent success rate Versus 26 and a half for Miami of Ohio. So they certainly kind of did justify their metrics Before week one my numbers would have made Texas A&M about a five and a half point favorite on the road here That's basically in line with the markets, but it's about a point off And right now with the aggressive changes It only has in about up by about a half point. Wow. I'm not quite Yeah, I mean so so basically if you want to follow the model you're buying into a Miami team That was kind of terrible last year in the first year with Mario crystal ball The quarterback that like wasn't particularly good. So they had a good Game against Miami of Ohio the markets are saying and I don't really care On the other hand Texas A&M. Are they really that much worse of with one game against New Mexico market so far saying no I think there's a lot of questions about both teams I don't think we can make too much of a statement about these teams right now So, I mean, this is definitely a stay away from me and again example where the market has said Yeah, we're gonna kind of forget about last week We're given we're giving the Aggies a pass because because we do think that they they can live up to What they're doing, you know what we expected them to do preseason So yeah, just markedly different behavior than other games Now it sounds like this is a spot where you do disagree with the model where the model is making big adjustments on Miami, Florida And it sounds like you want to pump the brakes a bit more So I always find that intriguing the spots where you are saying I disagree at the model here What leads you to not fully buy into what the model is saying with regards to movement on this game? Yeah, I mean, it's more the downgraded Texas A&M than any upgrade of Miami, Florida And I think with Texas A&M, you know, you have a five-star quarterback and kind of Wegman You bring him by Petrito to to be there on the offense You know, they weren't particularly great But you know, let's give them another look there The defense probably should be has been really good at Texas A&M over the past couple years They should continue to be good that didn't necessarily show itself against New Mexico, but They get a pass I guess they get a pass. I guess, I mean, personally, even in looking at these three games that we're going to talk about Like I'm least interested in this game. I think the market is right to be I would definitely lean, you know, for example, I would lean harder towards Notre Dame the last one even though My model didn't say there was much of an edge I would lean harder towards Notre Dame there than having any opinion in this game Alright, let's finish up and by talking about Texas at Alabama and pretty fun game last year in this one And right now Alabama is seven point favorite with the total at 54 and a half at Vandals Sportsbook And you know, both these teams did win pretty comfortably in week number one So how do you see things playing out here in the rematch between Texas and Alabama? Yeah, for sure I mean, you know, the numbers really didn't like what Texas did against the little brother Rice down down there You know, they had 39% success rate versus 26 and a half for Rice That probably doesn't justify the you know, the big the big point spread And on the other hand, you know, like I don't I'm not I think we've come into the season with more questions about Alabama Then we have probably since Nick Saban second year down there and they did a really good job Against Middle Tennessee really did pound them pretty good Jaylen Milrow, I don't know if he was ever officially named the starter quarterback That was something I was kind of following Saturday morning or Friday night is when that first alert came out that he would be the starter Yeah, so he you know, they certainly weren't confident in him, but he goes out there has almost 54% passing success rate Which is pretty good compared to the college football average of 41% Interestingly, this is not I don't know. I mean usually Bama gets the edge I would have made this about seven and a half before the season started I make it Bama by nine right now. So the market is actually saying we're not giving Bama the edge quite yet Here's where I don't particularly love this game, but I was certainly lean towards Alabama and the model here You kind of have to remember Texas was like really good last year by the underlying metrics that were top 10 15 on both Offense and defense that was you know much better than kind of the awful first year that Sarkad the year before when he first got to Texas Texas was one and five. Sorry two and five and one score games last year, which is which is why it didn't really kind of show up on the In their record how good they were You know not not a great performance by against rice but I feel like You know the markets are giving them a pass on that Yeah, so you know to have this at seven right now when you wouldn't when I would have made it seven and a half in the preseason I would lean towards Alabama in this game Now you're saying that I think intentionally saying at the lean versus something you'd want to bet because the minus seven is minus one 14 I'm assuming that based on the way you're talking this is not when you've actually bet yourself yet it sounds like you're you're more willing to Make it a stay away and be a bit more skeptical because the market is also a bit like in Alabama right now Yeah for sure I think Alabama has some issues in the secondary which might matter in against the Texas team that's got some pretty good wide receivers a Texas team that you know Quinn yours is is at least considered a quarterback with a high ceiling So kind of forgot about that one. I was writing on my notes. Yeah, they have some injury issues there too So yeah, definitely means for Notre Dame in Alabama, but you know as you said nothing I've bet yet Okay, well let's open up the board then and talk about other games you like across week number two and where else you're seeing value right now at Fandle Sportsbook I mean I hate to do this but we got we got to talk about this Colorado and Nebraska game so Nebraska goes into week one And they have a late lead at Minnesota and give up 10 points in like the last three minutes to lose and it's just a colossally awful start from that rule at Nebraska You know a program that hasn't really been good since the 90s and they kind of want to be good and and and that rule is about as good of a hire as you can make Did some remarkable turnaround jobs at both Temple and and Baylor And so it's just an awful way to start you know they're you know actually the model made a pretty pretty big upgrade on Nebraska in that game against Minnesota So you know part of that game was they were also month minus three and turnovers they actually got upgraded after that game Colorado clearly got upgraded after you know being a 21 point underdog at TCU they played really well Yeah Travis Hunter is kind of unbelievable the wide receiver cornerback combination So but as I said you know the Colorado defense wasn't particularly good they give a pretty high success rate against TCU and it's also like how they gave it up like they allowed about a 51% success rate rushing wise against TCU because Travis Hunter plays less of a role against the run I don't remember he also dropped he had an interception but he dropped one too you're like dude what are you doing like your receiver Right exactly and you know I don't make too much of this but Nebraska was actually pretty good running the ball against Minnesota they had about a 53% success rate there They have the quarterback Jeff Sims out of Georgia Tech that you know ran the ball a bunch in that game So I think some of the matchups kind of match up here and like I said you know it's about a 10 point swing I think once Colorado beat TCU that you knew they were going to be favored in this game you knew the markets are kind of going to shift and I kind of understand that But you know when you would have I would have made Nebraska about a seven point favorite on the road here so that's what we expected before last week I definitely think there's value I look this is definitely a game where you're going to look really silly if it doesn't go your way because I can certainly imagine situations where Colorado wins this game But I think a lot of like the underlying factors point to like this is too much of a shift I'm okay with a little bit of a shift but I think I think it's too much The only question is whether I think this is going to go from three to three and a half in some places there's some like smaller books that I don't have accounts that that are three and a half I really don't think the sharp money is going to come in on Colorado I think all the public money is going to come in on Colorado So I guess I'm debating in my mind whether I think I can bet this at three and a half before kickoff To get a better number than three Fandals at two and a half probably better spot So I do think there's value with Nebraska I think you know every one of the public's on Colorado and I get it but I think the values on the other side Yeah right now as you mentioned Fandals currently Nebraska plus two and a half that is plus one oh two though so you're getting a bit of a discount there in that regard But let's say Ed we get a three and a half because we do see a lot of movement in college football on Saturday mornings now If it were to get to three and a half would that be a situation where you'd be kind of like slobbering at that point because I know that you'd like you said You want to respect Colorado and what they've done how enticing would a three and a half be for you Yeah I would bet Nebraska plus three and a half if I can if I can get it for sure Okay so Colorado I'm not sure there's part of me that thought I was going to get it but It was up there recently I thought on Sunday and it was gone real fast but it was up there I think for a second I just don't feel like a lot of the sharp groups are going to be pounding Colorado on this I think it's more of a public thing Maybe wrong It's been a weird market to track it's been exciting to track honestly it's been the most I think that they were saying it was tracking to be like the most bet college football game in a long time Potentially like ever on regulated books so it's going to be fun regardless But that also means there's going to be a lot of money coming in still despite the fact we're already at Wednesday on this game Right But okay so so here's the thing I mean if this is really like the Super Bowl of college football going on right is it Something where the markets are going to react to all that public money and go to three and a half just so they can kind of cover Oh hey and they're just came down It just went away Okay came back up at two and a half the exact same as always before but like they're clearly taking money on this game right now They're clearly taking money well the market I mean that's the exact same market right so Yeah doesn't look like it's uh doesn't look like it's changed I'm actually really happy for Dion Sanders I really like what he's done and I really like that He shot back at some of his critics already but he should also be prepared for the fact that he's not going to go 15 and 0 this season And so some of that's going to come back at him at some point this season might not be this week it might be a little bit later But uh but yeah it's it's it's a it's a great story you know like it's it's one of like I was really looking forward to watching Colorado games Coming into the season and now and now everyone's on that and and it's fun it's a good story and it's good for college football and it's good for Betty Right we love college football we want more people talking about college football watching college football betting college football and this is obviously helping that So it's a fun storyline they're a fun team to watch too like that shouldn't go overlooked like it's not just a fun storyline Like it's objectively a fun team to watch to at least based based on one week so I feel like uh it's kind of an interesting time So we'll see how that one plays out but Ed saying the model does show value Nebraska so keep an eye on that market Whether you want to bet it now or bet it potentially on Saturday something like that and see the market move to three and a half buy it then Pretty enticing spot regardless with Nebraska taking on Colorado That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread but as mentioned we do have a prime time Tom previewing Thursday night football Being the Lions and the Chiefs coming up later on also back with Ed once again tomorrow talking about some NFL for week number one Ed you mentioned your numbers and how they react we're gonna find those numbers if they want to see them on your site For sure members of my site have access to all those numbers how the you know my my best college football reacts I also offer a lot of free stuff in my newsletter you can check that out at thepowerrank.com Do sign up for the newsletter there's a discount code that you can take advantage of before the NFL game starts on Thursday Detroit at Kansas City so check that out at thepowerrank.com All righty find Ed on Twitter as well at the Power Rank check out his podcast the football analytics show and check out thepowerrank.com For all that great info I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow FanDuel Research at FanDuel Research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today good luck to you for betting anything for Wednesday night We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down NFL week number one This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network