 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 11th of July with me Patrick Mundley Slow start to the data sheets in in the US really have Fed Speaker Williams on Monday On Tuesday we get June and if I be small business optimism looking for a 93-point there cost pressures and labor shortages The key concerns. We also hear from Fed Speaker Barkin on Tuesday then Wednesday really the main event for next week. It's US June CPI looking for a 1.1 percent print there The headline CPI will be running potentially 14% month-over-month rates in a seasonly Adjusted and annualized terms with core CPI inflation running at 10% month-over-month for the season adjusted manualized rate That would be the hottest core reading since June of last year while indicating continued upward pressure upon underlying inflation And heading into Thursday we get June PPI looking for a 0.8 percent print there Producer prices remain elevated amid supply issues. We also get an issue of jobless claims Obviously to remain at a very low level 235k last print and then we are around at the week in America with the July Fed Empire State Index looking for a negative 2.6 percent print there volatile But firm order pipeline to support New York Manufacturing we also get June import price index looking for a 0.7 percent print Import prices to remain at elevated levels. We then get June industrial production Flappant there 0% volatility continues to linger as firms try to navigate ongoing supply issues Then get may business inventories 1.1 percent expected business rebuilding inventories at a very robust pace and then we round out a week with the July University of Michigan sentiment looking for 49 there Versus a 50 per last time out inflation and rate concerns still front of mind So from a technical perspective dollar index Trained into the target zone at the 107 30s and we did see some profit-taking there What I'm looking for is we head into the beginning of the week It's any three-way corrective move back into test these prior highs and this Trend channel support just below the 105 handle 104 90s Watch for bullish reversal patterns there to re-engage on the long side and we're now looking for a push-up then into The 108 80s as the next upside objective for this move at this stage You'll really take a close back below this trend line support 104 70s to suggest we'd have a Deeper corrective move to move back to retest the 101 30s in the eurozone Tuesday we get July ZEW survey of expectations Confidence is on par now with the pandemic lows in the eurozone Wednesday we get the main industrial production looking for a flat zero percent print their supply issues They're a long-going headwind to production in the eurozone And then we round out the week on Friday with the main trade balance Previously makes it thirty one point seven billion euros deficit is to continue to remain wide on energy price pressures from a technical perspective euro dollar Failed some support at the monthly projected range support down 10070 now looking for any three-way corrective move back into those prior lows at the 103 40s 103 50s Forget up in there. I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side Tolton and move down to test parity as the next downside objective at this stage I agree take a close back through this trend line Resistance now at 104 70s to suggest we have a more meaningful low in place and a deeper corrective move to trade In the UK data of note next week is Wednesday's May trade balance last time out negative 88 503 billion Deficit is to remain wide based on import strength. And that's the only real data of note next week in the UK obviously the Resignation of Prime Minister Johnson last week. We now have a bit of a political vacuum in place That's a red pressure the BOE and the upcoming meetings and markets see the Bank of England on pause now until we have a resolution of the political landscape in the UK from a technical perspective looking for any move back into the 121 60s Or potentially as high as the trick channel here 122 30s as the next selling opportunity Watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side of the next downside objective is 118 15 to the downside At this stage it really will take a close through this trend channel resistance 122 50s to suggest We have a more meaningful low in place and then we start to be thinking about a move up to test back into the 125 30s In Japan Monday We receive a machinery orders and looking for a negative 5.6 percent print there ongoing volatility and investment amid supply issues and then Thursday we get the main industrial production final estimates and Anticipating a negative 7.2 percent print there And that's the only data of note next week in Japan from a technical perspective continued consolidation Looking for any push up into the 138 handle as long as you maintain Negative diverges here. We want to engage on the short side looking for a move to pull back and retest support down to 131 20s rounding out the week down under in Australia Tuesday July Westback mystery MI consumer sentiment Last time out 86.4 sentiment is very weak sub 90 even before the RBA is July rate hike We also get the June NAB business survey may conditions elevated at plus 16 confidence cooled from From plus six to negative four on that print and then we get June Overseas arrivals premium Currently about a third of the pre-pandemic levels for the arrivals in Australia And then on Thursday we get the June employment change looking for 30,000 The labor demand remains robust job vacancies are very high We also get the June employment rate looking for 3.8 percent there Rates continues to lower holding participation study at record highs. We also get inflation expectations Well up from 3.5 percent at the start of 2021 mirroring actual inflation That's the main data of note next week in Australia from technical perspective if we can take out the internal trend channel resistance here 68 we look for a test of the main trend channel resistance and the monthly pivot just about the 70 handle from there I want to re-engage on the short side targeting the weekly equality objective down to 6640s and Just to wrap things up here. Let's a quick look at Bitcoin Bitcoin traded into our target zone Which was this twenty two thousand three hundred and fifty to twenty two thousand one of the sixty area We are seeing some supply coming to the market here So we look for any loss now of the seventy thousand eight hundred level to set up a test of our weekly equality objective To twelve thousand one hundred and eighty five As always trade us plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much