 Okay, good afternoon, good evening or even good morning, I guess for some of you. Welcome to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and see the Tick Mill welcome screen on your screen, can you just type a Y in the chat box? And we will get going. Before we get into today's charts, as always, I want to pay attention to the risk disclaimer and understand the inherent risk involved in trading any financial instruments. Secondly, the views expressed here today are solely mine. They are not representative of Tick Mill and they do not constitute investments advice. Okay, so that's the disclaimer and housekeeping out the way. Just before we go into the chart, for those of you who are here for the first time and I can see there are a bunch of you who are. My name is Patrick Munley. I have been involved in the markets for 15 years now. I wasn't always involved in financial markets after I graduated. I went to work in London in the city for a public limited company consulting firm and after a few years there, I left with a couple of the other guys who I worked with and we did a startup, a technology executive search firm and we experienced some pretty rapid growth over a 45-year period and I eventually cashed in my equity stake in the business when we merged with another firm and so I had a bunch of time on my hands and some chips to play with and started to explore my passion for markets. I had a front row seat, the dot com boom and bust scene guys make and lose a fortune quite literally overnight and I'd always been interested in markets and had friends who'd gone to work in investment banks and hedge funds and so I started to basically dabble slash gamble in the S&P 500 day trade in the S&P 500 in a market that was pretty much just going north and I caught some lucky early breaks started to make some solid and then really quite some significant gains but when the market phase transitioned I obviously without the underpinning or anchoring of a trading plan started to make some rookie mistakes and ultimately that led to me averaging down in losing positions to the point that I had experienced a six figure loss which was thoroughly gut wrenching and devastating experience fortunately at that stage it wasn't terminal for me but it was significant enough that I really had to take a step back and assess what it was I was doing and whether or not there was the potential for me to actually make a sustained income from trading and so I basically started to take this more seriously and I sought out a mentor through my personal network I introduced to a guy in the States who worked with me for 18 months, two years developing not just my technical game but most importantly my mental game and really it was a period through which I became far more self-aware and understood the psychological requirements to making it in the markets so I developed a trading plan, a business plan thoroughly back tested and forward tested and I came back to the markets January 2008 and since then on an annual basis I've managed to deliver positive returns on the screen at the moment you can see performance since 2013 the reason why it's since 2013 is that's when I started and managed the account service initially it was friends and family who saw what I was doing and wanted a piece of the action and it's grown organically from there it's now a multi-million dollar portfolio that I managed and again the whole drive there is this annual performance I'm not concerned by or interested really so much in the outcome of individual trades for me my focus is on the next hundred trades because I know that if I stick to my plan I execute with excellence and focus on the process then the outcomes will ultimately take care of themselves and I'm looking for my edge to demonstrate itself over like I said there's next hundred trades really and this is a big driver for me in terms of becoming, being process orientated as opposed to goal orientated in any other commercial activity or commercial endeavour it's all about goals, setting goals, financial goals and setting new business goals and that sort of stuff whereas for me and for the professional traders or successful professional traders I know we're about process and that's where our focus is because if we get the process right the returns take care of themselves and from the statistics here the most important statistic for me is this the idea of unprofitable seven out of every ten months and when I do lose my average loss in a month is 2.4% but my average gain is 8.1% so it's almost three to one ratio so you can extrapolate that down into my individual trading performance and what I'm looking to achieve in terms of profit the important thing in trading is when you win is to make more than you lose when you experience the loss and I'm not here to suggest that I'm winning 99% of my trades and I've got a gold plated Lamborghini in the garage I experience losses I experience strings of losses just last month, April I had six or seven losers in a row but because of my experience I understand the process of trading and I totally accept the fact that it's a numbers game and for me to get the reward I just had to be executing the trades when they set up I was able to get back to close to scratch on the month and I'm still up 9.3% on the year to date so it really is that idea of focusing on process and that's a message I hammer home to the guys I work with on a daily basis so part of the trading project obviously I'm a resident market expert for Tickmail I provide a daily market outlook and a set up of the day you can register on the Tickmail blog there to receive those in your inbox the other project I spend a lot of my time involved in is FX Chris, we're a leading online education trading education firm with a slight difference we underpin our education and we believe so vehemently in what we do and the quality of what we do that once you complete the process we'll actually give you a funded account with the opportunity to grow it from 10k up to 2 million dollars on a profit share basis at zero personal financial risk we have interactive education modules there are 10 strategies that I use a combination of over the past 15 years that deliver that have delivered my returns and there's also a great community there of like-minded individuals who are all striving towards this idea of becoming a professional trader and I'm involved in what we have a team chat heavily in that in helping to guide the guys and girls on the team through the process of making it as a professional trader we actually have at the moment a 14 day free trial offer a limited time offer for those who are interested in trialing service and you can sign up using a link I'll post the link in the chat at the end for you that give you an opportunity to see what it is we're doing at FX career swap that's a flavour of where I'm coming from in terms of what I want to discuss today let's move on to the charts this is the dollar index monthly chart this is what we were looking at last week and we were looking to see if we got that close below this trendline and lo and behold we did in the end and I suggested last week that we could we likely see some back and filling now that May has from a seasonal perspective tended to be very strong for the dollar I've had some dollar longs in play this week and we're backing and filling as I anticipated ultimately what I'm looking for is the vast amounts of liquidity that are being channeled into the market the various guises of the Federal Reserve we're looking at $3 trillion flooding the markets over this next period I believe that that's going to lead to some dollar weakness certainly I think we'll see maybe not during the summer months but maybe as we're heading to the election period in the US I think we'll start to see this dollar have a bit of a wobble and I'm certainly looking to trade that from the short side if you look back through the recordings on YouTube I've posted these slides a bunch of times about where I see these dollar cycles this is explaining the liquidity that's being plowed into the market and how that should ultimately impact the trading we should see certainly some trading opportunities on the short side of the dollar like I say after having these dollar longs I've got a buy signal on Monday I've traded up into this trend line I've taken profit on those dollar longs I'm watching to see how we react now at this trend line in a minute we'll look at some of the majors at the reflection point we'll see we've had a break just above it there running some stops we'll see now if today we get a reversal in the dollar and potentially head lower now after we get a close above the trend line and we take out the trend lines I'll just show you this is the trend line we're sitting on in terms of cable we're going to run higher earlier this morning on the BOE but if we can defend or if bulls can defend this one twenty three area and I see the potential for another leg up here and an attempt to challenge this one twenty eight area one twenty eight represents the seventy eight point six percent retracement of this decline we've also got the monthly R2 up there and the weekly R2 but to get confirmation for this I need to what I'd like to see is a close back above the near term volumetric average price so that's currently coming in around one twenty four twenty so to get confirmation for this potential move we'll need to see that close if we don't get the close if we fail below the trend line here then similar to dollar index then we can look for an initially an equality move which would put us back down testing one twenty two and if we if bias fail to show up there then we've got a lower downside objective here fifty percent retracement one six one extension of this structure puts us at one twenty so we're at an inflection point a decision point to the market and we're going to see how that plays out in the coming sessions and similarly in the Euro we're sitting at this trend line support you can see the momentum studies here are also sitting on trend line support and starting to just tick back up a bit so I'd like to pay attention to these trend lines in terms of the momentum studies and we'll see if there is an opportunity for the bulls to step back in here in the Euro as we're sitting on the monthly S1 and this trend line support area from quite tested volatility sport bands but we'll see how we trade out the coming sessions here obviously with respect to the Euro I posted this in the team chat we've got some massive option expires between 108 and 109 going off today and tomorrow in that's three p.m. UK time it's called the New York cut and so we likely see a range support here for the Euro based around hedging strategies by market makers with respect to those options so I've got to put on an initial long here in the Euro and I'm going to use some of the profits available in the short side to give me some wiggle room here and we'll see how we trade but we'll see if we can get a reversal certainly back up through 10850 would be encouraging then I think we can head back up to test certainly back to that 109 where we get these options rolling off tomorrow so I think we're in 108109 range at the moment however if we close below 10750 then again similar to the cable story 10750 would be and certainly then we would be looking at downside targets so initially what we have in play would be a move back into these range loads here so this would be in a quality move versus this structure we can get it actually off here as well so yeah if we take out 10750 on a closing basis that would be a bearish development for the Euro and then we need to be looking at the other side trade initial target down to this 10630 the year to date loads would certainly be pressured there but like I said at the moment with these options in play we're likely we should see this 108 support area prove to be sticky in the short term and then we'll see how the market responds once these options are rolled off tomorrow obviously we've also got non-fun pay rolls coming up tomorrow we're expecting 2.2 million job losses of staggering figure and we'll just have to see I mean if that number comes in heavier than expected then I think that could feed through into some dollar weakness because that will obviously then suggest that the Fed are potentially going to have to increase their stimulus and that should potentially weigh on the dollar so keep an eye on those non-fun payrolls figures tomorrow in terms of other markets I'm watching the S&P 500 is one that's on my radar at the moment let's go here and see it what I'm looking at with the S&P is we've held some symmetry swing support versus this prior corrective move here you can see we tested back down into that area and got a reversal if we pull it back further to this first leg here you can see we pretty much held it to the tick and we're seeing push higher watching this 28 28, 70 on the closing basis we'll take out that on that level of closing basis certainly I think we can retest these highs at 29, 69 and ultimately what I'll be looking for is a run up into this resistance zone this again 78.6% retracement of the entire decline we've seen and the 161 extension of the initial corrective structure so this will be a key area for me in terms of looking at the potential for doing something on the short side I've played this over the past few weeks from both the long and the short side I'm not suggesting that no one knows what's going to happen and this is an important concept in terms of trading I don't need to know what's going to happen next for me to make money over the long term but certainly if we get up into this area and I could see us retracing again 50% of the move would be a natural occurrence so if we can get up there 31, 40 I can see us back trading into this 26, 60 area and who knows then again another key decision point because if the bulls decide to step in and the coronavirus pandemic news with these economies reopening to start to look a bit rosier then all-time highs could be taken out that seems a lower probability scenario at the moment but certainly one that could be in play again the beauty of having the ability to analyze markets in a consistent fashion gives you the ability to market maps so you can prepare in advance for these scenarios and the reason why this style of analysis works effectively is that we're just using prior swings in the market we're not coming up with ludicrous targets or ludicrous ideas in terms of where prices are going to go we're using measured moves if we accept the fact that markets certainly rhyme if they don't necessarily repeat then price action is the best guide for where things are likely to head through 2870 through take out these prior highs this is the quality objective here at 2899 so through 29 and then I think it's certainly retest of highs on route to the 3140 now if we believe or if we accept that this is that's the bullish scenario in terms of the S&P then I certainly want to pay attention to what's going on is what the N crosses the Aussie yen the Kiwi yen have form in terms of tracking equity markets and you can see here getting a bullish reversal potential outside bullish reversal we've got the RSI stochastic back down below 20 so in terms of momentum there's plenty of scope here from the for the upside and we've got some upside targets similar to the idea that just mentioned in terms of the S&P We've got the 78.6% of the trades. We've got this prior lows. We've got the equality objective versus this structure. So we could easily see now a run up here into this 72 area, currently trading 68. So we need to get this bullish close here with the BWAP. And there's the opportunity to take a look at Long's targeting this 72 area. Similar story in the Kiwi Yen. Nice bullish reversal from the range support here. And again, we've got these upside objectives. We've got the equality objective versus this swing from this swing low up into the 69.50. Again, 78.6% retracement on the cards. We've got the monthly R3. We've got these prior lows here. So, you know, there's a decent chance that if we get a good reversal here in terms of the Kiwi and those futures, lift the S&P 500, text out 29, then we can see this grind up towards this 70 area, currently trades 64.50. And again, the invalidation point for that idea would be taking out these swing lows. So that's the Kiwi Yen. Let's take a look at the Euro Yen. Euro Yen has tested down into three year lows. But what we note here is that again, we've tested in the quality objective. So we have this leg and equal leg down here and we pretty much hit it to the pit there and we're trying to put in an inside bar reversal here. In terms of the strategy, the call swing strategy that I teach, VWAP is a bit dispersed here. So this would be a price action play because at the moment, obviously this candle is green without the proprietary indicators. If I take that off, you can see this candle is green. So I mean, if we can get a bullish reversal here closing back towards the highs, then in a pure price action strategy, again, using the analysis, the core analysis and we're obviously trading into that two to three standard deviation VWAP support area. Then this setup has merits and certainly one I'll be watching on the close tonight. And again, if we do see this Euro yen reverse here and it's still an if at this stage, then that should add some support to the Euro dollar as well. So keep that in mind. The Swiss yen is also one that I'm watching again. The Swiss yen has traded into its equality objective and is looking to find some support here. Really wanna see a key reversal back up through this 10950 to get bullish there. But certainly there's a trade and what's the first target? Well, you just measure move, use the measured move of the last tick higher that we saw here in Swiss yen. So I mean, we could reasonably expect to move up to that 111 area certainly before you can see renewed selling pressure. So that's what I'd be watching there in terms of the Swiss yen. Kiwi and the Aussie are also a watch. We're reversing here in the Kiwi since you're putting in an outside reversal. And again, these commodity effects tend to trade with risk sentiment. So if we see an improvement in risk sentiment, these futures get moving today. Then this Aussie could also have legs to the upside. We've got an upside objective here at 6448. That's the quality objective versus this structure. And then let's just bring in the fibro-tracement. So there's the swing high. And again, you can see that 78.6% as well. So these targets are certainly valid from my perspective in terms of upside objectives to trade for. Let's take a look at the Aussie quickly. So I mean, again, this was a set of, I've been in this trade this week short. Ultimately, break-even exit just wasn't really playing ball on the downside. Supporting again, because we haven't seen this S&P roll over, that adds support to these commodity effects. But central tendency, we've got a bullish monthly VWAP that trading above the monthly pivot could take out the weekly pivot on a closing basis here. So again, there's a long opportunity here from a taxable perspective. And where's our target? Well, shouldn't be a surprise at this stage, but what we're gonna be looking for, or what I'm looking for is that, is the equality objective. So again, bringing in that extension tool. So versus this structure here, you can see we have 67 on our radar. We've got these prior swing lows over here. So I mean, once we get up here, certainly I'll be looking at how we trade here. Because again, at this stage, this is still a corrective structure versus this impulsive decline. And certainly what we could reasonably expect from a test up here, is we could then see a 50% of the tradesman. And from there, again, then we move into another decision point for the market. This would certainly give this opportunity. And then we'd again, watching for these key inflection areas, watching how price responds, and then entering once we get a price action confirmation, as like I say, as with my core swing strategy. I think that pretty much covers the main opportunities I've got on the board at the moment. So I'm watching Euro, Sterling, watching the dollar index, all testing these key trend lines at the moment. So I'm gonna be looking for opportunities to short the dollar here, if we can get price action confirmation. If they break, if these trend lines get taken out, and the dollar gathers some steam, let's just go back to the dollar chart, in terms of the upside objectives. If we do get a going here, and we hold, and we trade through this trend line, certainly 101.15 would be the next upside objective. So symmetry, sorry, equidistant swing, quality move. And if sellers don't show up here, then we're going back to retest the highs. And if we, again, if we take out those highs, then there is actually a target, the quality of target up here at 106. Obviously, this would be inflicting significant pain on the markets, this type of dollar strength. And again, this will probably be a blow-off move to my, in my mind. And certainly I would expect that the Fed and certainly Trump would be doing a lot of dual voting at that stage with respect to dollar strength. So, you know, from a strategic perspective, I'm still on, I'm in the bear camp on the dollar, but I, you know, I trade it tactically. Obviously, if I, when I get the, when I get sell signals in the dollar, I'm going to try and write those trades because you never know which one it could be the, the start-off of this bigger decline in the dollar. But, you know, I'm trading tactically around that idea at the moment. Like I say, just, just all I've got running at the moment is a euro long, closed-out shorts in Sterling and the euro. So that basically brings it up to speed with where I'm up to. Are there any questions? Are there any charts anyone would like me to take a look at that I didn't cover that could be of interest? You can just type them in the chat box and I'll have a quick look at them for you or type an N in the chat box just so I know that you're all awake. D-B-P-A-U-D. Yes, I mean, we're rolling over here. The Sterling Aussie has taken out, you know, this trend line here. Let's just, you can see we've got, you know, we've had this trend line support being eroded. We came up to basically to make an attempt here to retest it from below and we rolled over. It was inside candle here. So you could, you know, you can make the argument for continuation trade on the basis that the RSI stochastic is back up, testing that 80% level. So you've got momentum on your side and certainly, you know, in terms of downside here, we could reasonably expect an equality objective. So that will put us into this 186 area and you've got that pivot cluster as well there as downside magnets. Again, the alternative scenario is that, you know, we base what it looks less likely at this stage, certainly, but if we did, for whatever reason, find some sort of support here, then, you know, we could run back up, get that underside test and still it would still set up this downside move. Equality objective, even lower down to 180, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the scenario at this stage, but it's probably break lower and make a move for this 186. Good stuff, nice to meet you, well done. Aussie Swiss, Aussie Swiss. Yeah, I mean, so this one, again, if you just look at the Aussie complex at the moment, it's pretty much green across the board here for the Aussie. So I think we're on track here to certainly retest these highs. RSI has to cast it is back down in the 20s zone and positively diverging. So I mean, the setup would suggest that we're probably going to take a look up here if we bring in the bit of retracement. So again, this idea of that 78.6% retracement zone and what we don't have really here though is, I guess you could use that, but there's not a clear structure there to measure the equality objective, but if we're looking at this prior swing here, for example, and we just overlay that there, then it looks like all roads point to a test of the 65 and obviously that would coincide with the Aussie making its move. So when you're looking at those crosses, it's always useful to look at the major for your guides and we can see here that we've certainly got a confidence up at this 67 level and we'll see how we trade when we get up there. Okay, if there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here. Like I say, if you want to take advantage of the 14 day free trial for the trade pro program, please do so. I'll post the link now in the chat and you can sign up there and you can get, for whatever reason, I can't post the link, unfortunately, but you can see the link there, it's fxqueerswap.uk, forward slash trade, hyphen pro, hyphen free, hyphen trial, hyphen Patrick and you can take advantage of the free trial and access all the information and have access to me on a daily basis for the next 14 days. Okay, I'm going to wrap this one up here. Guys and girls, thanks very much for your time and I hope this was helpful and I'll see you all sometime next week.